Divergent

He's still a candidate. The reason for the shift, at least from my perspective, is that when I woke up, there were already 4 votes on him. There are 7 of us and most likely 3 elims. I wasn't one of those 4 votes, so that would mean at least one elim voted on that. And I am thinking that, since the elims are so close to reaching parity with the village, they would likely not be trying to throw one of their own here and prolong the game, possibly causing them to lose, so that's why I was more inclined to read him as village

Yeah, I was thinking the same

Yeah thankfully I'm feeling unsure, an e!Thug world still is a possibility as a counter to a v!Coinshot and also the execution. Definitely something to reevaluate on

How does that explain Araris having 5 votes on them then? A Soother can only decrease votes not increase it

It's not possible for it to be 3 since that would mean the other roles such as Soother and Lurcher would have been village roles, and no one has claimed that

If she used Rioter powers on D1, it would have kept the vote count at 4 rather than 5 since she was on the leading wagon Since using Rioter powers nullifies your own vote

I think the Thug claim is a lie and he's actually the Mistborn. There's only 4 candidates for it: you, Ksauce, IHAT, and TUO. I trust Ksauce and IHAT, and there were four votes on you, of which I wasn't on that wagon, so there has to be at least one elim there and I think that makes me likely to think you're village So, by process of elimination, that brings us to TUO, of whom I was already suspecting before Why the switch? And I'd like to ask for @Ookla the Broken's thoughts

I don't think Honor would be the move here since the e!Mistborn is a problem with them potentially rolling a more dangerous ability and Honor is confirmed to not be a Mistborn from the D1 vote tally

I see, but yeah, I'm still thinking about the distro and we already know that a Lurcher isn't in, which lends to the idea that the elims were aiming to remove any roles that would prevent them from failing a kill, so I find it difficult to believe that they would both let a Thug remain in the distro and at the same time, also keep killing non-Smoker PRs. Reads-wise, it hasn't also helped that you unfortunately haven't really been around as much. But with the limited posts I could read from you, it hasn't really projected town, so I think I'm keeping my vote on you

Something I'd like to ask, why did you claim only just right before rollover? And not early in the day. To me, that looked very much like an opportunistic claim designed to give people very little time to think and just allowed that change in votes to lead to an exe on a Villager

Valid point, I think that's something to take into account that might be a point towards Stick being actually village Then again it could still apply. With the elim team having Mistborn, they know that they have the Rioter power and Soother power on the starts of both D1 and D2, so that is something they could take into account with their strategy for that day and ensuring even if they're voting for their partner, it would never be enough for them to go over

I feel like I've been trying to get this post up several times and not being able to because the editor didn't save the draft lol. Anyway, hopefully this attempt goes through D1 vote tally confirms the existence of an e!Mistborn. Slayer, the Rioter, likely did not use their Rioter ability. Even if they did use it to move votes, that would mean their vote is nullified and the number of votes on Araris would still be at 4. So it's only an e!Mistborn who got the Rioter ability that can have changed that vote. There are 4 candidates for this e!Mistborn: TUO, Alvron, IHAT, and Ksauce (who unvoted Honor earlier that day) So, I tried to run possible distributions with an e!Mistborn in mind I didn't super get close to what the elims had in mind for the distribution, but what all these combinations show is that I find it hard to believe that the Thug claim is real or if it is, that it belongs to a Villager. In most of these combinations, it's very easy to allocate points to either remove or steal the Thug, and I don't see why they wouldn't do that. I am thinking that out of all these, the last is the most likely because the Mistborn would give them flexibility while the Lurcher and Thug not only keeps them safe from the Coinshot, but it also ensures that their kills would also go through In addition, the elims have been killing non-Smokers on most nights. We've seen them kill people who either were unwilling to claim (Hoid), denied being a Smoker (Exp), or didn't claim (Worldhopper). If they left the Thug role alone, then they would always be at risk of their kill failing and so, it makes much less sense to me that they would not target within the claimed Smoker pool. I am a bit iffy on the current Alvron wagon. There's 4 votes on it atm, which means at least 1 elim must be there because I didn't vote on that. So I would like to vote TUO again for today As for who I think his teammates are, I think Stick is still up there. I see the possibility that it was an actual attempt to save Stick from being executed and that it wasn't just to cause chaos. I feel that IHAT is village because him being the Mistborn doesn't make the most sense since he is directly exposed on the vote tally as having no vote. I'm a bit uncertain on the final one, but I could see the angle of it being either Honor or Alvron. Honor had that exchange of accusing someone as a Mistborn (I think?). As for Alvron, it's possible that the elims are playing the long con by bussing their teammate and gaining the credit for this, so that they can win the next day

Does the moved player's vote get reflected as 0 in the tally?

@Ookla the Wallfacer can I ask how the Rioter works? So they would nullify their own vote, but does the changed vote not reflect in the vote count?

Before I fell asleep, I was thinking of an elim team of Stick, TUO, and Honor/Alvron, so I'll probably vote somewhere there. There's some things I need to check in the previous days to make a case on this

I'm not currently smoking anyone so we can coordinate on that today to ensure votes are all at a value of 1

Who did y'all extend your smoking powers to so far?

So were you banking on the possibility then that Doc was actually an elim? because if it actually were LyLo, the game would have end right there and then

Also, I'd like to ask, @Ookla the Broken what made you switch to Doc last minute? I remember last day your main townread was Doc and I'm aware TUO claimed Thug, but that didn't necessarily mean his claim was real or that being the real Thug would mean he's village, so I'd like to know what your thought process was and what your intentions were with that vote

Hmmm, taking into account what you said about Exp, we can see a pattern that they have been actively killing non-Smokers and Exp happened to die because they thought he was a non-Smoker. So I guess they might have went for a "hide trees inside a forest" plan with 2/3 of them being Smokers

Also, why do you think the elims killed the people they did? Appreciate the answers, I think there's some ideas forming in my mind, which I will hopefully be able to synthesize as the day progresses

Majority of claimed people are Smokers, so do you think the elims lied and said they're Smokers when they're not? I think the village Soother idea doesn't really work because why would they kill the claimed Tineye when they could shoot someone else who would be the candidate for the Soother

Well, I don't think there are four elims since it wouldn't be mechanically possible for the game to still be continuing today if there were, but I suppose the same reasoning applies with 3 elims. I see And it's correct right only Day 1 and Day 2 have had votes altered? Is there any information on who caused that? I think D1 could have been influenced by Hoid, but since Hoid died N1, it's someone else that affected D2

N1 and N2, since the Coinshot died N3 Also, am I correctly understanding that for the elims to only have 1 person have a particular role like a Mistborn (and elim-sided), they would need to use points both to remove and steal the role? Or is using points to steal it enough? What's your reasoning for this?

Has there been some confirmation on who the Coinshot killed?