Divergent

Would you kindly point us to the direction of the other Minions of Mischief? I don't think Burnt could have gotten Scents L2 and then also bought Stone L3, so a teammate had it

What was your reason for not bidding on any mask on D1?

@Doc12 Wanted to ask you, what made you pick Bunny Loop during Loop 2? And I think you mentioned this already, but I can't find it, what mask did you choose this Loop to try to bid and why?

@DrakeMarshall If there was an elim between Doc and Mist, who do you think it would be and why?

For this, it was re-established on D2A near the end of it (which was acknowledged by both Burnt and Doc) And Night 3A, Hael references knowing how the tie mechanics work post-vote So, most people likely did know by D3A how ties would be resolved

Not sure if you were just responding to Drake on this part, but I have never thought that Hael becomes auto-cleared from D3A. As you mentioned, it wasn't truly a tie since ties are broken via a determined mechanic, and there wasn't even a tie up until the last hour, I believe, when Hoid added the third vote on Hael And yeah, I agree that you pushing for Burnt again the next day does add points to you being v plus also being one of the first among the alive in Loop 2 to mention the Archer/Coco suspicion. I will say though, I'm still confused with the whole mask situation and if Burnt did actually just get it and both of you and Mist are simply village. Hopefully, that is the case, but until then, I think I'll remain having a cautious eye Let me know if I need to switch my vote to TwinStorm. I'll probably be around around rollover

I did a quick scan of D2B and N2B, and Burnt didn't post any reads at all. On D3B, her PoE was TwinStorm, Hael, Coco, and Stick, so the N2 scan is consistent with her read, but that could always have been planned for In the same post too, she mentions liking Mist wanting to PM spam to set of PMs

Burnt Overall, I think Burnt is more suspicious than Mist, and from rereading the game the previous night, I thought that Mist read as very villagery (the secret code interactions, the strong assertion of being able to prove Doc is village mechanically in an earlier cycle, calling out people for lurking/not responding). Basically, the gameplay has been not only solve-y, but also that it came across as genuine and not faked. I'm still very uncertain of who between Hael and TwinStorm is elim. There's very little content of them to go through and in the previous cycles, most of the time they didn't really offer any reads or vote in a significant push. I'm leaning Twin atm though, mostly based on Hoid's behavior while he was playing and the distancing that I felt was there between Hoid, Coco, and Archer

I think the explanation would be that these two have already been strongly pushed for for at least two days and that it has been successfully derailed. With the advent of a new loop, which revealed that the elims won it, I think most of the suspicions falls on those two and trying to derail it, especially in a significant way, would have just looked suspicious. Oh I will, thanks for the reminder

I wasn't eligible to get any masks at all Loop 2 due to having been executed on Day 1 You didn't post at all in the last 3 cycles of Loop 2 or did you post, but they weren't counted?

Hi I'm busy for this cycle, but I'll try to find time within the next 12 hours or so to catch up

I see. What makes you confident that Burnt couldn't have? Is there not a world where Burnt's teammate (like Coco) bought the Mask of Scents instead and so, Burnt wouldn't have a 20 rupee deficit. I don't know if the math works out though (probably not since Coco claimed Bremen and this would put her at 45 on D3C; might be possible too that another teammate bought Bremen and that way she'd still be at 50, but we have no real way of figuring that out)

I see, I think what you said made a lot of sense where e!Mist doesn't really stand to gain anything from the kill on Ash and that e!Burnt's reveal of the Mask of Scents info serves as a very good distraction to keep people's eyes focused on her and Mist, so that e!Coco could get one of the 50 rupee items instead of being the exe on D1. Another thing I thought about was that out of the 6 that remained Burnt would have most likely been the second most focused on after Coco as Doc and Mist are mostly village read, and Hael and Twin just aren't as active and are falling under the radar, so I could see it as a hail mary to make people doubt their v-read on Mist and also potentially make people think that she's v. It doesn't have a high chance of working, but it's worth a shot. What I am confused though, is how is it possible that the Stone Mask was still taken by someone who isn't Ash. Were Burnt and Coco able to both afford it anyway? Did either Doc or Mist snipe it?

Completed my reread D3B Some thoughts/impressions I had - There was one thing I found common with Coco and Burnt, where there were instances where they both came across as being frozen. These were times when they expressed not knowing who to vote for and I thought it was weird because they did have reads, so the repeated uncertainty felt off. Main difference between them though was how Coco did vote while Burnt only voted twice across 5 days. @|TJ| I think I can come around to what you expressed yesterday about thinking there's only 1 out of 3 elims in the pool of Doc, Coco, and Mistfallen (and that elim being Coco) - For Mistfallen, something that always ran across my mind was your push on Mist in the previous game where you said that he came across as "wanting to be seen as village" and his gameplay so far has been the opposite of that. He's called people out for lurking, for not responding to things, and in general has said several things that give the impression that he doesn't care as much to be seen as village, which I think came across as genuine to me. The back and forths with Coco that he had in D3B and D1C also reminded me of him honing in on Octopus from Anni. I would really like to hear other people's perspectives, especially with those who might e!read him since I never want to have as strong a v!read on him after MR75 I'd like to re-hear your case on why you think Mist is elim @Stick. and if that's still the same or if it has changed - For Doc, I did find it suspicious how he was strongly reading Coco as village and the reasoning was rather vague. It reminded me of his read on Honor / Kangaroo in Anni, which was an effort to place her in a better standing. But I did like how he was one of the first to try to make a push for the Archer/Coco association and also for continuing on with trying to go for the Burnt exe again. What I will say though, is that my reservation is that it seems like he's been far too willing to concede with letting his pushes not go through, and that it could be some very intentional distancing to appear like he's contributing to elim pushes, while also not trying to work as hard at making said pushes succeed. - On Hoid, something that I noticed was how Coco was suspicious of Hoid and even shaded him continuously throughout Loop 1, but never voted for him. And then there's a sudden shift of v!reading him throughout Loop 2. That could be distancing, but I'm also thinking about how this probably is the first time Coco has been elim and I feel like newer elims are less likely to do this sort of distancing and are more likely to just avoid making any definitive read on their less active teammates. But I could definitely see a world where it's Hoid himself who encouraged that sort of behavior towards him, especially with how Hoid seemed to also strongly suspect Archer (and if I'm recalling correctly from seeing that Tress game, Hoid was more the type to go ham on distancing with teammates). - On Hael, Hael's just largely not really made much of a push or shown any reads for majority of the game. The only time that he did from what I recall was D2B. I considered the possibility of him doing something similar as Burnt with providing more general analysis rather than focused and then doing a lot of RP to maximize rupee count, but him being absent for a number of phases makes me think that it's less likely that he's been coming in with that intention and that he's just simply a not very active villager. So, I guess I'm still leaning towards executing Burnt next day and my main suspects after that would be Hoid > Hael, and Doc > Mist

I believe this is what's been known so far of who had which masks. Day and night acquisition matters since we get the picture of which masks were bought during the day, while at night, it's not confirmed at all. Most important to know atm is if someone did get the Romani Mask on Loop 2, since Mist claimed to have attempted to submit a bid for it, but did not succeed in getting said mask

I see. In my mind, I was thinking 10 as starting fund + 30 from meeting requirements in Loop 1 - 20 from Mask of Scents - 3 PMs = 17. Did you send a PM with more than 100 characters?

I think it was looking like we were going to execute within those 4 day 1 and there was very little chance of it being Hael/Twin, so it would have always been 1 down by the end of the phase But anyways, I can see your point (if people forgot about executed not being eligible to get masks or if people were thinking it might have been a different outcome) You had 17 rupees D1B and then got to 20 something N1B? So that tracks

Did you put in any bids or got a mask on loop 2 btw? A person who puts in a bid on the same phase that they get executed in is not factored in when masks are distributed, so that's why she's not included there

I'm not sure these numbers are right? I think only you, Mistfallen, Doc, and Burnt could have bought it (Burnt buying it depends on whether she was the one who bought Mask of Scents or an elim teammate) (Coco got exe'd, I don't think Hael and TwinStorm have the funds for it, most of the other players died on Loop 2 and resurrected with 20 rupees) And in this pool of players, there's 1-2 elims (I still think it's 2). So, I guess I do agree with there being a benefit for the villager in that group (Mist, Doc, Burnt) to try to get it. But for said benefit to really apply, you'd also need to be confident that you could convince people that you are villager and did it with villager motivation. So, I feel like the con, which is that you're going to look more suspicious outweighs the benefit here.

We could play around it like a hidden immunity idol in Survivor and split our votes on two of the suspected elim, so that even if the mask is donned, we could still take out an elim (this does require a much higher accuracy in figuring out the elim team)

That's one of my potential teams. I'd need to revisit Doc though, since from up to what I reread (N2B), there wasn't really anything that stood out as suspicious. If there was anything, I'd say it's the lack of a stronger push for the people he suspected to go (which was unlike his behavior in MR75), seeing how his main pushes tend to not get executed Wouldn't it have been better only for Ash to take it (from the village side)? Since if you're one of the unconfirmed village, it'd just make you look very suspicious

I forgot rollover time switched due to daylight savings and was shocked when I returned to the thread and day had already ended aaa I will hopefully finish backreading D3/N3B either this phase or start of next phase, and have more thoughts to share You weren't able to get the mask?

Not necessarily the same since both of those votes weren't exactly consequential (the 1st instance was voting Mist with Wahr and that wagon was unlikely to go through since Wahr had 5 votes to Mist's 2; the 2nd instance was tying Hael with TUM, where it was kind of clear Hael wins that tie) and both times he didn't really try to make a conscious effort to encourage people to vote the same way I tried going back to the previous phases and see interactions between the alive 6 + Archer (of whom I suspect most as elim). Didn't realize it would take a lot more time than I expected it to since I'm limiting the number of people, so I ended up not finishing D3B and N3B, and here's my notes from it. I'll need to give more of a think on it tomorrow after I wake up for my conclusions D2A D3A N3A D1B N1B D2B N2B

I guess I'll look more into how the three of them interacted with each other. I think the tie doesn't necessarily make Hael villager since the counterwagon had Archer, Mist, and Coco in it, so if Hael is elim, then there's incentive to save him, especially that they were trying to win the loop. I do agree Hoid hadn't been villagery in the general sense. I guess I just lean more towards him being village for the reason that in QF77, he also stated that he would be inactive, but that later down the line, he couldn't stay out of adding and influencing the game (as elim). I'll need to read TwinStorm's posts to see if there's anything that's more alignment indicative

I feel like Burnt and Hael are much closer in likeness in behavior compared to Hael and TwinStorm. Both have been rather active in the RP front while being less contributing on the analysis/social side (though I do agree Burnt has contributed far more with putting out reads, just that the ones I remembered from the earlier days that I have a better memory of tended to be more neutral/have less conviction in her stances) Why do you think that there would only be 1 max elim among the alive active players? And that implies you think Burnt and one of Hael/TwinStorm is elim. Between Hael and TwinStorm, who are you leaning more towards?