Hoid Slayer

Heya guys Not sure what’s been going on in this chat for the last hundred notifs and it looks like a lot of it is just chilling which is good but I wanted to pop in and, yk, just be here for anyone who needs it *massive squeeze to everyone* Also Kansas I get the crush thing and that is so real It’s not your responsibility, at all

Lord Markus was still deep in the liquor as noon rolled around. The door to his chambers suddenly cracked open, and he groaned reflexively as a sharp ray of light pierced into his eye. A servant stepped into the rooms, took one look at him, hesitated, and shut the doors again. Five minutes later, the room was swarmed with people, lifting the drapes and cleaning up the bottles strewn around the entire space. Still dizzy, Markus pushed himself to sit with the help of Turion. Good Turion. What would he do without him? As soon as he was settled, Turion turned to Markus with a worried expression. "Sir - the other Lords await your words. They need a leader, a voice of reason, and expect you to fill that role. But instead of sharing, you have been engaging in..." he glanced at the bottles with distaste, "other activities. They await your return." Markus sighed. Why did they expect so much? Being a Lord was not supposed to be so serious. It was supposed to be a game of wits and rumors - ballrooms and weddings he could handle. Not dark plots and funeraries. But so was the state they now found themselves in, and Markus found himself sinking into a pit of shame at the thought of his failure. Turion was right, as he always was. That didn't make it any easier. "I'll try to make an appearance later," Markus sighed. He didn't miss the sight of Turion wrinkling his nose at the stench of his breath, and he averted his gaze. "For now, I'll say this. I'll need to revise my view of the Lord Kelion. With all the sudden pressure against him, I cannot help but feel we may be putting too much weight on flimsy foundations. I need more information. Try to get into contact with an informer. Perhaps Hoid?" "He is nowhere to be found, sire." Of course. Anyone intelligent had long since fled this forsaken city. "Kéamen Wither?" Once again, Turio hung his head. "Rumor is he's gone to Blackkeep, on the shores of the Black Lake." Markus nodded. He hadn't expected much success. "Well, find someone. And find me somewhere to work. It is time I gave this another look." No real post coming tonight. I will try to go back over the events of last night with some new assumptions, particularly since I fear we are blowing my reads about Ruler into something much bigger than they actually are and that is a rabbit hole I do not want to go down. If I remember correctly, much of the reason I suspected him was simply some weird activity, and it was the same with TOW. I don't like how everyone piled up on him, either. Sart... I don't know. That claim about Penguin is really interesting, because if we kill Penguin today and he doesn't flip evil then Sart is next on the chopping block. So I really see no reason for Sart to lie here, other than maybe to protect Ruler, but why if this is just going to make sure they both end up dead? It feels too easy, and I need to think more on it to see if I'm missing something. 'Night, folks.

Akimiko got fifth Ninja’d Hey @TwinStorm can emojis count as words?

Someone’s going for higher political power today

Did you take any actions? Btw, me and Book got the two highest standings. I role-blocked Coder, and Book presumably Guarded me.

Quick pop in I’m quite busy today, but I’ll try to make more analysis either today or tomorrow morning People who took actions last night: Can we share results? Since political power shifts every day, there is literally no village loss in withholding information Also, not loving the train on Ruler, but let’s see how it evolves

Lord Markus was still half-drunk as he stumbled into the dawn’s first light. He had to… had to warn them… had to leave the message… Markus tripped over his own feet, and collapsed into darkness. He awoke to the sounds of murmurs. People surrounded him, discussing a… murder? Yes. A chill dan down Markus’s spine. Lord Your Mistakes had been murdered. And Markus… Markus was still alive. Well, that hadn’t been expected. The previous night, Markus had stayed up making preparations. He had first reached out to Renalis, asking for Guards. Had he received them? In his drunken stupor, perhaps he would never know. He had then reached out to several other Lords, hinting he did not plan to protect himself. His plan had been to bait the assassination attempt, and put Renalis to the test. If he died, Renalis should have been proven elim. If he lived, he would have thought Renalis cleared. It had been a dangerous plan, but Markus had been prepared to put his life on the line for his new kingdom. There was only a single problem: He had forgotten to leave the message warning the council. He had had it ready, prepared to publicly post right before the night turned to day. But in the hour before the event, he had had a wine too many, and all his plannings were dissolved in the daze of the drink. Well. It had worked out in the end, he supposed. As per his original plan, he should now consider Renalis almost certainly innocent. He had told Renalis explicitly he planned not to hide behind his own hired shields, and the other man had had the chance to slay him. He had not done so. But… things still nagged at Markus. His plan to bait the kill hadn’t worked. There were three he hadn’t messaged. Kelion, Penguin, and Lady Cricket. But it was possible someone he had messaged merely hadn’t believed him, or had seen through his ruse. And so it was possible Renalis had done the same, believing Markus would set his own guards despite being told he wouldn’t. All in all, the Lord could not imagine a worse world in which he lived. Even the man he had chosen to block,Your Mistakes, was now revealed dead and innocent. Wonderful. Rusting wonderful. Ruler of the Mists Perhaps he could do with a couple drinks more.

Alright Sorry I couldn't post earlier Time for Hoid's Analysis *crunches knuckles* I'm taking my time on this, cause there's a possibility I die tonight, and in that event this is what I want people to remember Day 1 Timeline: Significant Events (Spoilered for length) Day 1 Timeline: Broken Down The game begins with a couple votes; Penguin pokes Newt, and I poke dp. CD and KSauce both pop in to do a little RP, but neglect to make any votes. Eventually, after almost a full day where like nothing happens, I move my vote Newt in the hopes of applying pressure and shifting the tide. And while I said yesterday that I was disappointed in the ripples my vote had - I take that back. Because, as it turns out, a LOT happened in the next 24 hours. Let's take a look: VC as of 4:00 PM Wednesday, CST, 29 hours before rollover: Newt (2): Penguin (poke), Hoid (pressure) Two hours later, Sart makes his first appearance to poke Akimiko for her lurking. Within ten minutes, Akimiko shows up, and votes Renalis for vague reasons. VC as of 6:00 PM Wednesday, CST, 27 hours before rollover: Newt (3): Penguin (poke), Hoid (pressure), Akimiko (lack of response) Akimiko (1): Sart (lurking) We can observe clear changes following my attack on Newt. The question is whether there's a relationship; I have no reason to particularly believe there is, but it is interesting. Following Akimiko's arrival, Sart changes his vote to Ruler, again for inactivity. I actually quite like the strategy he is taking here, and it's important to note this reduces odds of him being elim together with Newt as an elim is unlikely to give up so easily on a counter-train when a partner is in danger. Two more hours later, Newt shows up, makes some analysis, and decides to vote Akimiko for the weird vote. This is quite understandable, and likely has an element of self-pres - although it's important to note Newt isn't scrambling. Iced acts unusually normal /s ALTHOUGH he does at one point make a somewhat weird comment telling people to wait for C3 for him to cook VC at the end of Wednesday, CST, 21 hours before rollover: Newt (3): Penguin (poke), Hoid (pressure), Akimiko (lack of response) Akimiko (1): Newt (weird vote) Ruler (1): Sart (inactivity) The following morning, TOW popped in and didn't like Penguin's vibes, voting him. CD shows up, and backs up Sart on Ruler, also for inactivity. Ruler shows up within the hour, popping in to say literally nothing about the game and eventually settles on a "poke" on Penguin. Something I want to note: the time discrepancy between Ruler's first appearance and poke is more than half an hour, and it's giving me vibes that the latter could have been directed from the elim doc - something like Ruler got told to vote Penguin, but wasn't given reasoning, and so Ruler improvised it into a poke. VC as of 10:00 AM on Thursday, CST, 11 hours before rollover: Newt (3): Penguin (poke), Hoid (pressure), Akimiko (lack of response) Akimiko (1): Newt (weird vote) Ruler (2): Sart (inactivity), CD (inactivity) Penguin (2): TOW (vibes), Ruler There's a lot more to read into here. We're seeing a slight pattern of trains forming. Both CD's and Ruler's backups strike me as somewhat sus, although it's worth noting that Ruler's backup was on a train started by a villager. Could be elims exploring options to save Newt, could be elims just causing chaos, could be villas flailing around, could be a mix of all. After getting home on Thursday - 19 hours ago according to the Shard, roughly 4:00 PM CST - I withdraw my vote on Newt, and decide to rashly vote TOW instead based off two weird posts (oh, how naive D1 posts are in retrospect). 18 hours ago, Penguin moves vote from Newt to Ruler. And within the hour, Akimiko moves THEIR vote from Newt to Ruler as well. VC as of roughly 5:00 PM on Thursday, CST, 4 hours before rollover: Akimiko (1): Newt (weird vote) Ruler (4): Sart (inactivity), CD (inactivity), Penguin (late poke), Akimiko (lack of substance) Penguin (2): TOW (vibes), Ruler TOW (1): Hoid (weird vibes) THAT is interesting. We see Ruler replace Newt as the main train in one fell swoop. If that was elim intended, it was executed quite smoothly. Things, however, get even crazier as rollover approaches: First, Sart decides to remove the vote on Ruler, disliking the pileup, and shifts his vote to TOW for some retrospectively very vague reasoning. CD shows up, and removes his vote from Ruler after Ruler shows up. VC as of roughly 7:00 PM on Thursday, CST, 2 hours before rollover: Akimiko (1): Newt (weird vote) Ruler (2): Penguin (late poke), Akimiko (lack of substance) Penguin (2): TOW (vibes), Ruler TOW (2): Hoid (weird vibes), Sart (vibes?) Penguin switches vote to TOW in self-pres. Newt shows up, decides to cut Akimiko some slack, and votes TOW. Final VC: Ruler (1): Akimiko (lack of substance) Penguin (2): TOW (vibes), Ruler TOW (4): Hoid (weird vibes), Sart (vibes?), Penguin (self-pres), Newt (weird posts) What I got from all this chaos: Throughout the day, we see the rise and fall of three primary trains, in interesting succession. I won't spend too much time imagining worlds, so instead I'll stick with what I feel confident in. Keep in mind, however, that these are all only PREDICTIONS based on fragile evidence. ≠ = Leaning Incompatible ≈ = Leaning Compatible e!Sart ≠ e!Newt Sart's vote switch from Akimiko to Ruler early on makes me think these two are incompatible, although it is a weaker read. The implication is that Sart is not trying to build a rival train. e!Sart ≈ e!Ruler + e!Penguin / e!Sart ≠ e!Ruler + v!Penguin I see a world where Sart poked Ruler for distancing, but got spooked by the rising train and shifted his vote to back me up on TOW instead. It would justify his weird reasoning for his vote. This only works, however, if Penguin is also elim; otherwise, it makes no sense for him to not simply move over to the Penguin train. e!Newt ≈ e!Ruler Tentative, but possible. I don't love Newt's final vote on TOW, and could be an attempt to save Ruler. e!Ruler ≠ e!Penguin / e!Ruler ≠ e!Akimiko Based off the train buildup. Sart and even CD I could believe, particularly given they both left the train, but there's not point for these votes on the train. Even if they were trying to save Newt, there were better options. Extra emphasis on Penguin for Ruler's vote on him. Aaaaand there's not much I can think of right now. Final Thoughts: In order of confidence: e!Ruler ≠ e!Akimiko e!Sart ≈ e!Ruler + e!Penguin / e!Sart ≠ e!Ruler + v!Penguin e!Ruler ≠ e!Penguin e!Sart ≠ e!Newt e!Newt ≈ e!Ruler I'm sorry if it ain't much, and I welcome anyone else to sort through this data. In the case of my death, I suggest looking into Ruler the most. There are some interesting dynamics with Sart and Penguin, and I'm not sure how to sort through those. I need a break.

Ahh thanks So double LG? That’s where I was confused, I thought it was double MR but that makes so much more sense

Oh snap Well, that’s to be expected D1, but I guess I was beginning to hope I’m gonna go to bed now, and get to work tomorrow Edit: Noticed my question was addressed in writeup

He plays a somewhat similar character in Rings of Power - enough that he is definitely able to carry the gravitas and give the ancient feel I think the problem with casting Vin is that actresses the right age just aren't famous enough. Like... I don't know any teen actresses that I see playing Vin So real

Hey uhh can we know what the standings are for word count? Also where the heck is everyone? I was expecting this turnover to be more exciting, but it seems more like a quiet sizzle Nvm, I see Book and CD are supposedly typing Yup Bro ninja’d me Yup Bro ninja’d me You gonna make another vote?

@Booknewt where are you @KaladinsSenseOfHumorSpren@dplostthegame can we get some votes? It means he’s writing the vote count right now

Ooooooookay really not liking this @everyone else who’s not voting Ruler? Also you vote for Ruler immediately after accusing KSauce of the exact same thing Just wanted to point out

Hear me out: From Rings of Power Looks wise, Charlie Vickers as Kelsier And Joseph Mawle as the Lord Ruler And I haven’t watched Game of Thrones but Nikolaj Coster-Waldau has the look of an incredible Kelsier, although he’s a bit old now

Assuming they have open auditions That would be AWESOME (not that I’d stand any chance, but still awesome)

Can someone help me understand the pattern of MRs, QFs and LGs? I took a quick look through the subforum threads and am utterly confused

Ooh that’s interesting Also you’re right about the night turn Yayzers I have tomorrow off, so that’s wonderful for me

Okay then Booknewt Seriously? NO ONE called me out? Alright then Book, you're good for now. I never really had any intention of exeing you, as even if I'm ambiguous on your alignment, I've seen you be an analytic player and this game definitely needs that, so I'm willing to take the risk of keeping you alive for the value v!you would present. Quick responses: Hate to tell ya buddy, but it really doesn't matter if you do Cause they matter, perhaps more than those of any other cycle - and we need every hand on deck trying not to screw up here ACTUALLY I went back and looked at the opening of LG 107, and this post right here seems a lot like his current tactic: So I'm gonna go ahead and refute that point, noting these findings with interest Although, of course, I know a lot of people who play quite similarly regardless of alignment Not liking vibes from this post. I've seen many elims do things like the part I bolded in purple, and it's an easy way to fake analysis. Of course, in his defense, there isn't much to analyze yet, but I still don't like it. Voting Penguin for long posts? Not only is that ludicrous, but what long posts has Penguin even made? Don't like the pileup beginning on Ruler, but really quite minimal since I did the exact same thing on Book Reads (not complete, duh, just what I got: Sart: I don't know his playstyle, so I really can't judge, but I'm not interested anyways in pursuing a train on him for similar reasons to Booknewt: he's experienced, and considering our current situation, we need to keep players who can solve and keep this thread moving Ruler: Popped up, and proceeded to do literally nothing. Not liking it, but I'm not super inclined to exe an inactive. Ruler, it'd be super great if you could give us something more. Oh, and he joined the train on Penguin for no reason. Feels a little Too Wolfy To Be Wolf, if I'm being honest. Penguin: Since there's lots of discussion 'round this guy, I guess I'll address it. I legit have no read. Same for most people here. Deal with it. Booknewt: Intend to keep alive as mentioned earlier. KSauce: Surprised by lack of poke vote. Checked some previous games and lack of poke vote isn't actually abnormal. BUT Coder: It is for this guy. So... yeah. Probably not that deep, but you never know. I could use some more Coder though, he's a cool guy. TOW: Finally someone interesting. Posted very little, but feels weird. He teased me for forming a spy network like Doc, and then voted Penguin without analysis. dp, Akimiko: Don't wanna exe a new player, so not worrying about these guys right now. Vote Count: Booknewt (2): Penguin (early poke), Renalis (lack of behavior) Ruler of the Mists (2): Sart (lurking), CD (same) Penguin (2): TOW (long posts), Ruler (VERY late poke) My Vote and Final Remarks.: ThatOneWorldhopper. Something rubs me wrong, and while there is a part of me that wants to commit to one of these trains to see if we can stimulate a more intense reaction, I wouldn't be surprised if all the current trains are on villas - and even if they aren't, I don't want to kill Book and Ruler and I really don't like the allegations on Penguin. So TOW it is. Anyone willing to make this a rival train? I'll try to get some RP and maybe even another "essay" in before rollover, since I find it very likely I die tonight.

ELEND VENTURE

Dang I’m really sorry I’ve never played with you, and so I assumed you must be new. That was a grave mistake on my part Pretty sure VC stands at: Booknewt (3): Me, Iced, Akimiko Akimiko (2): Sart, Booknewt Actually, I think he seems pretty subdued, but I don’t have a great read on his play style

Appreciate your presence Sorry about the train, but this thread is quiet and I'm willing to apply the pressure necessary to change that Not just for you; anyone who thinks the murder of Booknewt is unjust better start speaking up Right now I really don't have more to produce reads off of than vibes (which is what I'm trying to change), but @ThatOneWorldhopper and @Sart are striking me as kinda weird - although Sart's actually leading with someone, which I'll take it Not loving @CoderDrag0n8 and KSauce's lack of poke votes; I feel like they'd be the people to send them in, and they're both also quite active elsewhere in the Shard Lots of new players somewhat skew everything, of course. It scares me that the only person here who I believe has more experience than me is @ThatOneWorldhopper, and I've only been doing this since like May

Well.. I was about to say Book has not been online since my vote, but I see she has been. @Booknewt, care to comment? ... The thread? Elim OR villa, your teammates deserve to know what's going on with you Not loving vibes from Sart, but he's an asset so long as he encourages action so I'll take it Speaking of, is this your first game? @KaladinsSenseOfHumorSpren haven't heard anything from you either

And why would that be? What is making you vote Renalis?

Cool What do you think? (This game is moving pretty slow compared to normal btw - there’s a notable lack of veterans)