Hoid Slayer

Thank you thank you thank you I have some time today so I'll try to make some edits (improvements) and then post the email draft for Brandon if I get to it

Lord Markus the Charming strode, knife in hand, to kill a man. Or woman. His bloodlust would settle for either. Yet as victory seemed so close in sight, he was surrounded by ghosts. The courts were silent today. Although of course, he reflected, that was what happened when you killed all those who spoke. Lords KSauce and dp continued their absence, while Sart made another reveal - he was wise, and full of experience, yet Markus couldn't say he trusted the man completely. But he certainly trusted him more than Lady Cricket and Lord Renalis, both of whom seemed almost indisputably evil. It was somewhat funny, when he thought about it. Of those who took a stand, the good and the bad were equal. But Elend had listened. As Markus came to him the previous day, Elend had listened, and he had remained silent. Until, at last, when all was done, the man granted him his wish. An almost full faith in his suspicions regarding Cricket, and the tools to indict her. Yet if the King got his way, Cricket would be expelled, stripped of rank, and allowed to roam free. Free, alongside Penguin and who knew how many others, making their next plot to reinstate the order of their dead god. Markus could not allow that to happen. Turion blamed it on his lack of sleep, said he wasn't thinking clearly, and so Markus had feigned to agree with him and sneaked from his quarters. He had already slept too much, those hours in the middle of the day when the alcohol finally caught up to him. And when he had slept, nothing had happened. Nothing happened without him. So perhaps he was insane. He preferred to think everyone else lacked a healthy dose of insanity. Before his rest, he had approached both KSauce and dp. Neither had answered. The others had all made their positions clear. He would not change the hearts of noble men and traitors. So he would gut them instead. Dead men and women could make no plots.

Wow I'm going to be honest, I started reading this post expecting something weak and desperate, and I must say, I was thoroughly surprised THIS is true, and it is scary But there are some weird things up with it #1: Why does e!Sart claim to have caught you tonight and not the next night? It's not exactly like he's in danger of dying (if he truly is elim), and all this does is distract from the Akimiko kill (also, lowkey, if Akimiko's village I'm scared village is somewhat screwed anyways cause I could end up on the chopping block) There is a possibility the above is due to intentionally imperfect elim play to make us read him as village, but it's weird Like this guy would be folding under absolutely zero pressure. No matter what, he's not under any threat if he just let things play out. MAYBE he's making the claim just to inject some fun into the game, but it's unlikely And finally, there's the topic of bussing Penguin: no matter what the strategic play is, bussing a teammate under zero pressure is just outright mean unless they ask you to for some reason - and Penguin seemed pissed I don't really understand this whole section My evidence on Akimiko is indeed circumstantial But it's pretty darn strong I'm sorry, Book But I've gotta go with this one Also, I'd like to make an edit there. He hasn't twice revealed elaborate plans. In fact, if you're talking about his Night claims, he has made one very lucky, random snipe (Penguin) and one mildly strategic play (scanning Ruler/0 So yeah, I'm not standing by your side, despite you doing a great job. Seriously, if you're elim, this is an impressive defense. It's not your fault there's nothing you can do. ALTHOUGH, yk, since no one's here and the play is getting somewhat boring, I'm going to take my own advice - mix things up, apply pressure - and throw my vote onto Booknewt as well for now Your move, literally everyone else who's for some reason not here right now Also, I really wanna RP cause there's so much to RP, but I don't have timeeeee

That makes full sense, and I'm sorry personal conflict interfered with your performance I'm not saying you need to be online 24/7; I myself have been guilty of prioritizing other things, all the time. It's normal. I still think you're elim

Oop Well, shout-out to Sart for that I’m sorry to tell you, but I think Cricket is dying today basically no matter what But I promise you this: Once that is done, Booknewt will die

It wasn't a move based on like It was based on need To anyone else reading this who is freaked out by my Accusation: Akimiko's behavior last cycle regarding Penguin is, in my eyes, inexcusable. And even before that, there were hints that pointed at her and Penguin working together. I can pull up more information if anyone really wants it. If we slay a villager tonight, then I take full responsibility. I am willing to take those odds.

Akimiko For obvious reasons So uhh where the actual heck is everybody? @Booknewt - Lord Renalis the Realistic @KaladinsSenseOfHumorSpren - Lord [insert name here], who is highly suspected of being a Kandra @dplostthegame @Akimikoisthecutest as Lady Cricket the Inquisitive @Sart - Lord Sart, fashionably late, as always Did anyone scan Akimiko? What are the results of our actions? Anybody? I defended myself, for anyone curious Sart, I threatened Akimiko so she'd protect you You may have been willing to sacrifice your life, but I was not @TwinStorm@The Unknown Misting are there any plans to swap out dp?

Uhh neither of our GMs are online but I’m assuming this thread is closed

Noooo we wanna see yours Also guys I am thinking of making this into an email to Brandon when I have the time If I do write the email, I'll post my draft here first

Sart's sacrifice would not be forgotten. The message rang through Markus's head as he walked the streets of Luthadel at night. It was a quiet night, with the mists flowing in strength. Many feared them. But Markus did not. He feared no threat he could see with his own eyes. Yet the threat that assaulted the Lords of Luthadel now was far from visible. It hid, and in its hiding it acted. It killed, and it took, and it ruined without recompense. With only a single cause. Most men would flee from such a threat, overwhelmed by fear. Markus was overwhelmed by fear. But he would not flee. He wanted to, yes. Almost constantly. It was the little voice, the speaker in his head that came when he took a swig too many, reminding him of his weakness. Fool, it called him. And indeed, Markus was a fool. He had been a fool when he fled from his family, lured by the lights of Luthadel's balls. They had warned him then. He had not heeded them, and he had lost. He had been a fool when he allowed Lyra, sweet, passionate Lyra, to slip from his fingers, scared of the judgement of the bastards he had begun to call peers. She had warned him. He had not heeded her, and he had lost. The Charming, they called him. Yet he had not been able to keep the one person who had truly mattered. He always lost. And the voice was always there. Now, those warnings came again. But he did not know where they pointed him. Was he to leave Luthadel, running as he should have done when Lyra begged him forth? Or was he to stay, stand his ground as he should have done when his family most needed him? He did not know. The only thing he did know was the every little voice, every warning in his head was telling him that he would lose. He hated it. Loathed it. And so the conviction grew in his heart to prove it wrong. He had failed his entire life. He would not, could not, fail now. For the court of elegant bastards that surrounded him. For the passionate people whose lives he held in the palm of his hand. For the rusting King who now held the power to fix the wrongs of the past. For himself.

It's almost 100% 3 Two is way too easy for village, cause after a single slip-up like this, the remaining elim would now have to end up among the two last players, and if there were four elims we'd already have lost Sadly, probably very little I don't know if we have any specs for this game so it's just been TOW and CD Yup And the only game I've played in which an elim has been exed before this was last one

Well, this is splendid I think this might actually be the first time I exe an elim as a villager This game is actually winnable Sart is cleared village Ruler is practically cleared village, and Akimiko is almost certainly elim On that note: can we get someone to scan Aki tonight? Ideally, with PMs, we can also get someone to scan dp, but he’s lower priority. Maybe two people scanning Aki is best for insurance I’m now faced with a dilemma as well; do I Guard myself, or do I roleblock Aki? @TwinStorm@The Unknown Misting can more than one elim send in the NK? Also, what Political Power placements did people get today? Maybe we can coordinate this here

Let’s goooooooooo!!!!!!! Uhh I assume this should be closed by now ’Night, guys Whoops, ninja’d

@TwinStorm Hoid's Essay #2: Thought about skipping this one but don't like the idea of Akimiko with a roleblock after recent events We'll see where things end up after this The sky was blood red as Lord Markus returned from his meeting with the King. Their talk had been simple, yet had left him unsatisfied. Although, back in the council, things seemed to be getting better. Dared he believe - dared he hope - in Lord Sart's claims? Something about them nagged at him, and yet his logical brain told him this was the right choice. Yet he doubted. Markus let out a long sigh as he settled down in his chambers, and gestured for a new bottle of wine. He would need it for what was to come. Whatever was to come.

... Why would you? Also no one is proposing voting you out right now. We're just stating that some of your behavior (namely, your seeming refusal to vote Penguin despite being unable to express a clear reason why) reads as elim to us.

If I'm deepwolf, y'all are screwed It's actually kinda funny in the... seven? I'm pretty sure games I've played before this, I've only ever gotten exed once, and that was for a sudden rollover vote switch when I was village I guess I just look innocent Edit: Soooo I guess we’re just gonna run smoothly from here to rollover Only people not voting for Penguin are Penguin and Akimiko (who are likely both elim) and dp who is inactive / could be third elim cause otherwise third elim has wised up, voted Penguin, and Akimiko just ain’t getting the hint

Alright, this exchange is getting more and more funky Akimiko (do you prefer Aki?), I'm finding it really hard right now to believe you're not an elim flailing around trying to find any excuse to not vote Penguin. If you're truly being genuine, then you've accepted that Penguin isn't holding up his end of your bargain, so why not vote him? As I've explained in previous posts, if we exe Penguin today, we for sure catch an elim either this cycle or the next one. It's, I would say, a better than 50% chance that he's elim, and it would give us more information than we would get from any other kill.

Almost definitely He told you you could figure it out together and then proceeded to bring up something that had nothing to do with it? Regardless of whether or not Ruler is an elim, I doubt you can deny that neither of Penguin nor Sart are elim, and there is little to no reason for e!Sart to make this move

Okayyyy And what could you figure out?

And what do you have to say about the Sart/Penguin situation?

I’ve pmed him, but he hasn’t answered past saying he’s sorry

Alright See ya

It feels too easy to me too But no matter how you slice it, I see no physical way for Sart and Penguin to both be villa, and so we can leave any solving past that to later days I think there’s a good chance we just got lucky with Sart’s investigation into Penguin

Markus felt the stares rest upon him as he walked out of the council building, past the rows and lines of fretful nobles and restless Skaa. His head remained far from clear, but his gaze was precise, the path his feet trodded leaving no uncertainty. This was a man headed to see the King. The gears of power never turned with elegance. He understood that now. For there was nothing elegant, nothing beautiful, in blood and fear. Calculated chaos was the ultimate knife to those too blinded by their sophistication to glimpse worlds beyond it. Those who saw only worlds of strategy and intrigue, and believed everyone would play by their rules. The Lord Ruler… Straff Venture… they had all fallen the same way. Failing to see the truth. Elegance was a lie. It was passion that held the reins. And King Elend Venture - bless his foolish, scholarly heart - didn’t live entirely in any world. He was not new to these plots, but had never payed them much attention. He was too trapped in his villains and heroes, he failed to realize neither existed. And yet, he had passion. Passion many of the old rusts in the court could do well to taste more of. And so he presented an opportunity. A man who could be molded, so as to live in both worlds. A man who was not yet ready - but with the potential to become the Emperor they needed. Markus didn’t truly care what type of Allomancer was used to kill Your Mistakes. He didn’t care about the knife, the pawn or the lever. And yet he sought to live out his days in his wine and gold, not having to worry about such threats and deceit. So, with every beat of his weary heart, he was forced to care. Because he was left no choice. One thing was certain: this was far from over. These games, these gears would continue to turn, and the blood and fear would never stop flowing until change was achieved. Every day, the conspirers plotted. And their plots evolved. Until their next strike would hit right where they were weakest. Final. The pattern was clear, clearer than the mists beneath the beating sun of the noon heat. This cycle was unending, but it was not inevitable. Victory… change… for so long it had seemed unreachable. But it was no longer so. Every day, the Final Empire died a little more. Many whispered it would rise again. And so it would, if they did not act now. If they did not choose now. If they did not stop it now. There was no end to chaos. But there could be a death to this ruined façade of elegance, to these plots of passion. The mist could be - had to be - pulled away. Revealing not mythical figures and prophecied events, but men. Men that could fall. Or rise, to unimaginable heights. The people were only the king’s greatest threat so long as he did not see them. Did not heed them. Did not pull back their veils. This was the solution. Markus felt the stares fall away behind him as he rose up the elaborate steps of Keep Venture, walked it’s halls stained with legacies of pain, and knelt before his King.

Alright *rubs hands together* Here's what I got Day 1 Timeline (copy pasted from my Night analysis): Day 2 Timeline (that I made right now) (forgive the weird formatting it's copy pasted from a google doc): I vote Ruler of the Mists for sus vibes Sart votes Penguin for very weak reasoning - revenge against CD? Penguin votes Sart, explores some worlds I don’t really understand. I don’t know why he thought Ruler and Sart were of the same alignment, or why me and Newt are likely the same alignment. I do like his thought process that Sart/Newt didn’t die because there’s an elim hiding there - the Theory of Unnatural Survival (TAS) striking again - but honestly, I wouldn’t read too deep into it; it likely boils down to elims just killing someone that won’t give any information to the village, and CD accomplished that. KSauce votes Ruler for not explaining actions. Ruler votes me. Not sure why. Penguin shifts vote to Ruler using reasoning I proposed (no contribution, potential elim guiding hand). Akimiko votes Ruler for… vibes? RP didn’t make it very clear. VC as of roughly 1:00 PM on Saturday, CST, 32 hours before rollover: Ruler (4): Hoid (sus behavior), KSauce (not explaining actions), Penguin (no contribution), Akimiko (vibes) Penguin (1): Sart (revenge against CD) Hoid (1): Ruler (???) Akimiko claims to have found out who was targeting Penguin. Ruler suspects Akimiko and Penguin, but doesn’t give reasoning. Changes his vote to Penguin. Ruler says lots of confusing things I don’t really understand, and at one point says a certain behavior should prove him innocent. Penguin claims Newt targeted me - he had already told me that via PM. KSauce pops in to RP a little. Doesn’t seem very committed to solving. Book does lots of analysis (on that note, why would I mind that you steal my format? I’m glad you found it useful ), votes Sart cause she doesn’t like the Ruler pileup Sart shows up, suddenly claims Penguin targeted two people last night. I really see no reason for Sart to lie about this. If he’s elim, and Penguin isn’t, then Sart is going to die next cycle. More on this later. (Also, Sart votes Penguin again, seemingly having forgotten he already did that) VC as of roughly 1:00 PM on Saturday, CST, 32 hours before rollover: Ruler (4): Hoid (sus behavior), KSauce (not explaining actions), Penguin (no contribution), Akimiko (vibes) Penguin (1): Sart (targeting two players), Ruler (???) Sart (1): Book (dislikes Ruler pileup) KSauce agrees with Sart, moves vote to Penguin. Makes up some possibilities. After all that, nothing much happens until now. What I got from all this chaos: Well, there really ain't that much chaos. I think we can all agree that Sart ≠ Penguin. In fact, I really don't think there is much to debate here, but let's go over the worlds anyways: If e!Sart/v!Penguin: For some reason, e!Sart thought it would be a good idea to out himself. The only possible reason I see for this is perhaps in a world where e!Ruler is also true, and this is some weird gambit to defend Ruler. This could ALSO be a very elaborate, yet honestly kinda genius, move to ensure village loss if Ruler is villa. Allow me to explain: This cycle we exe Penguin. Penguin flips village. Next cycle, we have four villagers and three elims. We hit ly/lo (lynch or lose). But it's okay, cause we exe Sart, and he flips elim. The following cycle, we have three villagers and two elims. Once again, we are at ly/lo (once you hit it, it's really hard to get out). This is where things get interesting. The natural move here is to exe Ruler, because why else would e!Sart make this gambit? And so we exe Ruler. If Ruler is elim, we go into the next cycle with two villagers and one elim, prepared for the final showdown. But if Ruler is village... then the elims win. Then this insane elim play somehow worked. Lowkey, if that happened, it would be absolutely insane. The ultimate sacrifice for an ensured victory. But that world is unlikely. If v!Sart/e!Penguin: Sart is telling the truth. This cycle, we exe Penguin. Penguin flips elim. Next cycle, we have five villagers and two elims. Sart is almost 100% cleared. Game continues as normal. In this world, I have only one question for Sart. One nagging thought. Why didn't he reveal what he knew earlier? Why wait so long? Other Conclusions and Cross-References: For now, I'm willing to exe Penguin and see what happens. Sorry, bro, but I'm finding it hard to buy you right now. If you have anything else to say, now is the time to say it. Let's plug v!Coder into yesterday's timeline (not gonna physically do it): This seems like an important step to take. Here's what stands out to me: Coder backed up Sart's vote on Ruler for inactivity on Thursday, 11 hours before rollover. Aaaaaand Coder didn't do anything else. Yup. Safe kill by elims. With that done, now, we can also start solving for what happens past this cycle. Let's assume an e!Penguin, v!Sart world. Who are Penguin's teammates? Let's plug v!Sart and e!Penguin into yesterday's timeline (not gonna physically do it): What stands out: TOW (notably village) starts a train on Penguin that is joined by Ruler as a weird poke. Ruler here is most likely either village or very confused elim - leaning more towards village. As the train on Newt dissolves, Penguin moves his vote to Ruler. What this does in the context of the situation is it pushes the train on Ruler over the train on Penguin. So... basically, it's just self-pres with some reasoning attached. But it does tell us that he's very unlikely to be with Ruler, otherwise he'd look for a third option (both Akimiko and TOW were on the table). Akimiko joins the train on Ruler after Penguin for a lack of substance - could be helping ensure Penguin doesn't get exed. Sart shifts his vote to TOW for some quite vague reasons. TOW train is now equal to Penguin train. CD removes his vote. Now TOW, Penguin, and Ruler are all equal. Penguin switches his vote to TOW in very understandable self-pres. What I got from all this is: e!Ruler ≠ e!Penguin I already had that in my analysis from yesterday, but I'm almost certain of it now. And, more interestingly, e!Penguin ≈ e!Akimiko That's also supported by their behavior voting Ruler in succession today So uhh all this really doesn't tell us anything new Assuming Penguin and Akimiko are elim together, who could be their third? I'm really not sure, but I'm looking at potentially KSauce cause I don't like his behavior - although his vote on Penguin recently is very weird with that Assuming Sart and Ruler are elim, there I could see KSauce as an elim third much more easily. For now, I'm gonna take a break, but: Ruler Penguin Let's see where this takes us Essay on it's way cause I DO want that Political Power