Quintessential
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Everything posted by Quintessential
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I voted her primarily because I thought it would give me an idea of your alignment, and potentially also Araris's (and because, unlike Tani whom you also voted and whom I think is vil, I was slightly suspicious of Elandera all game for her weird vote on Illwei : P). Then I unvoted her because it occurred to me that it would give me a better idea of your alignment or Araris's to vote one of you off. : P so yes, I feel perfectly fine shading me for voting on her because that was the primary purpose of my voting her. Edit: wait, you didn't vote Tani, that was Ash xD sorry, the other person you voted was me. As it happens, I already know I'm village.
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First of all, thank you. You know who you are Second of all... er... Striker? lol I don't know how much this says about Araris since e!Araris could easily have chosen to argue for the survival of a villager on purpose (so, this is village leaning for him but doesn't clear him or anything, basically), but Striker's insistence on exeing her... @StrikerEZ why did you vote her originally exactly? Apart from to avoid voting me, that is.
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please not 8 PM PST... I could never be on for EoD if it were that
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Striker (Elandera)
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*shrug* I trust neither of you. At least if I seriously try to get you exed maybe Araris will lay off the me/you team thing.
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Striker, then? I'll do either
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lol You have no idea how much I want to believe that me, Striker, and Araris are all villagers who've just managed to end up going at each other's throats over misunderstandings. That would be nice : P See, I was gonna switch my vote to Araris here because honestly, now that I'm thinking about it I just want to get some of this over with and not drag it out another cycle. But now there's probably no hope of that exe going through. Unless someone wants to join me.
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Pfff I hope I do get NKd, this is exhausting. Also you severely overestimate mine and Striker's gambiting skills, I think he and I have been elim together before, and it didn't... go very well.
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...um we don't know whether me/Striker are elim yet??? why would him voting alongside us be sus now, before either of us have flipped? This is the second time you've just assumed the alignment of someone who hasn't flipped yet (the first time, you were making statements based on the assumption that Whysper/Dannex were v/v, which, as it happens, they weren't.) I doubt the elims are gonna NK any of the three of us. Because we have the spotlight, which means we take up discussion and suspicion. And if one or more of us is actually elim, the elims aren't going to want to narrow that pool. And if they do kill someone it'll be me, since I claimed : P
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I'm comfortable voting for the same person as Striker because based on how that person flips, I can finally maybe get a bead on him, or on you. Or... I don't know. tbh I'm tempted to just not vote because it feels like whatever I'll do will end up being wrong. Also how can you still think there's a Striker/me team??? Striker attacked me just as much as you did, possibly more since he took the time to go back through every previous cycle and take issue with a bunch of things I'd said. Including pointing out links between me and Whysper that, while he exaggerated them, do unfortunately still exist. Why would my teammate do that? @Ashbringer so what do you suggest we do then? If you don't like voting off one of me/Striker/Araris, and you don't like voting off a less active player with the potential to give information on me/Striker/Araris... I mean, I don't really think there's a good answer here at this point. Voting off one of me/Striker/Araris would theoretically give us more information than anyone else, but apparently that's not a good thing. I'm suspicious of most people to an extent, and also vaguely worried that the real elims are hiding among the people I've cleared for directly contributing to Whysper's death... which is not a productive state of mind to be in 25 minutes before EoD. But I can't help it.
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Why can't anything make sensssseee xD I can't not be paranoid about Araris or Striker, but because I'm sus of both of them and they have opposite opinions of pretty much everyone except for me I thus can't have a solid opinion on anyone. Because every time I think this person seems like an elim, I'll realize that Striker or Araris is attacking them, and then I'm like wait but one person I'm sus of is attacking another person I'm sus of... and then the other one of Striker/Araris has to come along and defend the original person... and so I'm like "hmmmm maybe that's a team?" but then I'm sus of someone else and the same thing happens, but whichever of Striker/Araris was defending before is attacking now and vice versa... Yeahhh and we have less than an hour left in this cycle so this is not good. Actually, yeah y'know what, Elandera. If she flips vil, I'll be more sus of Striker and... maybe less of Araris, though that could be an elim defending a villager for credit? Whereas if she flips elim I'll look more at Araris, who was defending her*, and less at Striker--though who knows, maybe Striker's decided to bus this game??? This is very confusing but I'm just gonna go with it. @Ashbringer yeah but all the people who've done AI stuff that leans elim are me, Striker, and Araris basically, and we've gotten into such a tangled mess that unless a bunch of other, non-us people are about to seriously weigh in on that debate, it's just not gonna get us anywhere I don't think. also I don't want to be exed.
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Nah, I meant "reasoning based on things people did during D1" lol Which like. Araris was complaining that I was using D1 reasoning on him (or maybe it was Striker?). But. Like. the stuff that people do D1 doesn't go away, and everyone's the same alignment now that they were then... eh. Oh! I forgot to remove my self-vote, didn't I xD Quinn
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It's not when people make mistakes that you look for--it's when people seem to know more than they should. (not exactly what happened with this D1, no, but... like. as a general thing)
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*cough* you know Araris self-voted earlier in the game, right? I mean yeah, it was meant to be an AtE... but like... elims aren't the only ones who get frustrated : P Edit: also I actually was thinking Elan/Araris were e/e originally, for the weird D1 illwei-vote thing... which Araris and Striker have informed me is not a good reason for me to vote them because it's a D1 thing. Gahhh I still can't shake the suspicion that the team is Araris/Striker/Elan. Sorry guys. Probably tunneling but I keep coming back to it for some reason. idk. Edit: why does everyone look down on reasoning from D1, anyway? During D1, villagers know basically nothing and very few have formed strong opinions, which means that elims stand out more and have to act harder to appear village than they do later on. Also, very few people think that what they say D1 will matter all that much (the little things, I mean; obviously people will come back to where your final vote was) so they let their guard down a bit more. In retrospect, they often become obvious (like, now that we know Dannex/Illwei/Archer was v/v/v, for example, which could tell us something about those who voted that cycle that are yet living).
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Well, the top suspicion list isn't necessarily "I think these three people are elim together" so much as "I think these three people are the three individuals most likely to be elim." I don't think that TJ, Elan, and Striker make sense as the team--which is why I original said you, Elan, and Striker, with one of Elan or Striker potentially replaced by TJ. But yeah, that about Elandera makes sense, though if you die and flip elim I will now immediately want to exe her The problem for me is I'm kinda... hamstringed. Because my two most genuine, or at least longest-running, suspicions (you and Striker) have made it clear that if I attack either of you, you'll work together to get me exed. Or at least, that's how it seems. So I'm stuck pursuing half-formed suspicions on TJ and Elan (of which I'm more suspicious of Elan, which then directly contradicts the point you just made and I just agreed with), suspicions that I have in part in relation to either Striker or you. Also, I'm now starting to doubt my suspicion on you in the first place, just because of how you've acted this cycle--and I have no idea whether to trust that or my original read of you. You don't feel like LG74!Araris at all, for one thing. On the other hand, I am more suspicious of Striker now than I was before. That spoiler-box thing seemed rly selective and conf-biasy... except that it was selective in that it left you out, mostly, and it was more in response to me attacking you than anything, which then makes me think you and Striker are teammates, which directly contradicts with the read I'm getting from you. So uh. Yeah. That's where my thought process is right now. Great place to be just 5 hours before EoD...
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I guess Striker, Elan, and TJ. I don't think there's a reason to suspect Connie, and I'm pretty sure Ash, Tani, Forge, and Books are all village based on interactions with Whysper. So if I'm not considering you, that leaves the three of them : P
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I mean. That is what you're doing. But that's kinda the point of the game. So... it's fine? Or that part of it is fine, anyway. I wasn't frustrated that I was being attacked, so much as that the only people posting were the ones attacking me, so the game had gone from being a thread of 10 players trying to find elims to being me vs. two people who want me dead. Which isn't very fun, for reasons that are probably self-evident. So, kind of what Ash said about inactivity ig. As for what you said in the spoiler box, now that I've actually read it carefully, I have some issues with it--namely, that it's confbias-y. It seems like you started off with the assumption that I was elim and then looked for things to prove it, rather than looking at my posts and using them to decide whether I was elim or not. So... my thoughts below. Being a village roleblocker, I don't have a doc to ask in. Also, you literally say in here that elims are less likely to ask questions in the thread, and then conclude that I'm elimmy because I asked a question in the thread. How does that make sense? Or perhaps, v!me, having recently played LG74 (where your track-record of being seen as suspicious was heavily emphasized), noticed that this time, nobody was sus of you, and decided to point it out. Yeah that was hypocritical of me, but the reason behind it (which I believe I said then?) was that I knew who I wanted to vote but felt bad voting him because he'd been misexed early in the other game. I needed something of a push. Like I said, I felt bad about Archer being misexed C2 of MR49, so I wasn't sure I was comfortable voting him. At which point you said it was probably fine and not a big deal, so I decided to do it. To get a bead on Illwei, not to defend Whysper. my thought process may or may not have been that if she blew it out of proportion, she was probably elim. lol it wasn't just that, though--it was the sort of... fatalism? The assumption that she was gonna die when she wasn't even in the lead wow I'm just realizing that was something of a self-fulfilling prophecy oof and then she self-pres voted on someone else who... also wasn't in the lead. Instead of voting on Archer. Who I was voting on and suspected. Also I love how you call me out for this but say nothing about Araris following it up by saying "I agree completely and I'm voting Illwei too". This seems very much like you're deliberately focusing on specific people and ignoring specific other people. Even if you're not suspicious of Araris anymore, you still should be applying the same standards to him as to me, because for all you know he's elim and I'm village. Well, unless you're elim, in which case you would know >> *blink* wait what? I have no recollection of doing that. Could you link to that post? er... yeah. I was asking because Archer wanted everyone to answer the questions he was asking, but he didn't answer the question he'd directed at himself. I mean... I'd been reading Whysper village right up until she flipped elim, so yeah, I would imagine I defended her at times. Only... I can't find much of anything? Like, there's me advocating that Dannex die instead of Whysper, which I think is what you're referring to when you say I started defending her once she got two votes, but A. that had nothing to do with Whysper, I was worried (like Araris) that Dannex was elim and that even if he wasn't, he would eat up discussion in future cycles, and B. you attacked Dannex over Whysper too, so if that's what you mean, then it's rather hypocritical of you. I did explain why I didn't think that Whysper's vote on Dannex was inherently sus in and of itself--and I still don't think it was. People vote on new people for very little in D1 all the time, and sometimes those votes build into trains. Since the next few people to vote on Dannex were villagers (and we knew that, or I knew it anyway--I was one of them), I wasn't about to conclude that the train built up because she was elim. Therefore, the vote was NAI for her. I saw no reason to vote her for it. That was all. Also, I was on for the end of D3 (from before Whysper had any votes until the end) and didn't feel any particular need to step in, though there were a couple of times where voting Books would have saved her. I mean, I'm gonna assume you won't believe me on that, but... can I put in blue text that I was on during that EoD? Well of course TJ hadn't done much by then, he was GMing another game. But what he had done was high-effort and seemed like village him, so I said, truthfully, that I thought he was village. Not sure whether I still think that though. And yeah, I had a village read on Whysper, like I already said. @Ashbringer I guess... I honestly don't know about this one. I guess Araris, Striker, and Elan, but I'm starting to doubt on Araris, and if Araris isn't elim then that makes me doubt on Striker, while if Striker is elim then that makes me doubt on Elandera somewhat. And I also feel like I should be including TJ in there somewhere. so yeah, idk.
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Tried to, couldn't. Apparently I have managed, just by doing what felt right in the moment, to screw up in every possible way and get caught in a trap I accidentally laid for myself. You might as well just vote me off at this point. I know I would, looking at what Striker's pointed out.
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(Striker) Quinn I'm not coming back to remove that. I'm tired of arguing with the people I suspect over whether I should suspect them or not, and I'm tired of putting tons of effort into these kinds of analyses and being misexed for them, and I'm tired of this thread being just me and Striker and Araris, and I'm done with this. And while we're at it, I'm the village roleblocker. I blocked Araris N1 and Striker N3, so if either of you submitted actions those turns, and by some miracle are actually village, then there's your proof of my role at least. N2 I blocked Archer.
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Alright then, Striker (Araris). I, personally, am not liking how quickly you've gone from thinking Araris was sus, back when nobody agreed but me, to defending him, now that me and Forge are both voting him. Voting me for attacking Araris when you yourself were sus of Araris less than 24 hours ago doesn't make sense. I'm not buying that. I can understand a reversal of opinion, but you can't expect everyone who agreed with you before to have made the same reversal of opinion, and indeed I haven't.
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To the first part; I think you're reading it wrong. I don't feel defensive, anyway... also as you remarked in the QF49 dead doc, I tend to get defensive/frustrated when I'm village too. Not sure I really like this vote on me tbh, especially with the second part? The point rn isn't to get a "safe" exe train, it's to get an exe train on an elim; also that's... blatantly favoring exeing an active player over an inactive one, which I thought we had said was something we were trying to avoid : P like, I get if you think I'm more sus, but you were voting on Elan before, rather than me... so if you don't really think I'm more sus... voting me just 'cause I've said more seems unfair. Also, I'm still a bit confused as to why you are sus of me. Araris has explained his reasons, but they don't really seem like... reasons you would have? I mean, I assume you can't be sus of me for pushing Araris's death, since even this cycle you said you thought he was elim. So what is it?
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If elim!me wanted to kill the person responsible for the death of her teammate, specifically because that person was responsible for the death of her teammate, she would just NK them as it is, obviously it's not your getting Whysper exed that's driving this, since I've voted you both previous cycles, when Whysper was still alive. As for "trivial stuff", when I caught Illwei originally in MR48 it was because she slipped up in C1, said there might be five elims, and then a page later dismissed the idea when someone else suggested it independently; Bard I caught for only final-voting the main train each cycle and only poke-voting villagers, Ash for a single vote in C2, and Kings for a single post where they said something that made it clear they'd been paying more attention than it had seemed. In LG74 I figured out you were elim because of the timing of your voting and unvoting Ash in C2, and I got Maill purely based on gut in PMs, while I missed Illwei because I ignored the "trivial" connections between you and her (you defended her C1) in favor of the larger, seemingly not-e/e connections between her and Maill. Trivial stuff seems to be what I'm good at--and in the past the people who've told me not to vote based on trivial stuff have turned out to be elims. Which may be incidental, but it's made me wary. Me and Striker agreeing is weirding me out too, and has been all game (though I haven't said anything because what would I have said? "bad gut on Striker because he keeps saying exactly what I was thinking"? "I think Striker's elim because his posts read super village and I agree with them"? "Striker's pocketing me by reading my mind and saying the things I was going to say"?). Unfortunately, now I don't trust my read on Striker because you seem like you'd be willing to vote him. I don't know what to think about him, basically. Regarding Elandera: I'm not asking you because I'd ever actually take your word for what to think about Elandera, I'm asking to get a bead on you. She was the only one of my suspicions (edit: by which I mean my PoE) that you left out of your team guess without actually saying why, so I wanted to get a better idea of what you think of her qualitatively, something that would be harder for an elim to fake, especially about a teammate (which, remember, my current guess says she is one). I am worried that I'm tunneling on a villager, and if I am I want to give you as many chances as possible to convince me of it and convince me to change my vote. On the other hand, if I'm right about you, I want to get as much info and as many connections from you as I can before you die. Make sense? As for Whysper/Striker, that does make sense... I don't know. I worry that if I switch my vote now I'll regret it (like I have the past couple of times when I backed down under criticism : P), but then I also worry that this time I'm wrong and it would be a good idea to switch my vote. Unfortunately, I don't particularly trust the people who are actually weighing in on the issue, except for Forge, who's new. Which means that anything anyone's said feels like it's slanted to steer me away from actual elims... you see what I mean?
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Shoot, they've caught me! I'm actually also confused why I've survived this long, except that it seems the elims are NKing inactives whenever they feel they're not being threatened (Archer was likely NKd because he was the strongest voice against Whysper during D2). To be honest, that's part of what makes me think Araris is elim--I can't think who else in this game wouldn't have NKd me by now : P (except for Illwei, who's dead). The grace period for always dying early seems to be three cycles, so... I mean... it was coordinated in-thread, so yeah? Books said "does anyone else think neither of the options are any good, and would they vote Whysper with me?" and Ash and Forge said sure. Somehow I doubt the elim team would link themselves like that, which is why I'm clearing all three of them. As for Ash, yeah I acknowledge he could have done what you said but I personally think it's unlikely. Because in order for that to be the case, e!Ash would have had to look at the near-tie between a villager and an elim and think "distancing opportunity!" instead of "shoot my teammate might die!" which in my personal experience is not the thought process for most elims. I could see that being something that, say, Maill would do, or someone else who's fond of gambits, but I... don't think that's Ash. I'd find it more believable if you tried to argue that Ash was last-minute bussing his teammate because he wanted to use it for an RP opportunity Late in terms of when people were vote--you were the second-to-last person on Dannex, I believe? Not sure. Regardless, having stepped back from it a bit I don't think I'd pursue my suspicion of you unless Araris flipped elim and I was out of other ideas. Ohhhh wait wait wait you're right I'd forgotten about that. : P there are some downsides to looking at pure votes on occasion. Hmmm okay less certain about Striker, in that case. Striker/Whysper... hmmm. Maybe doesn't make as much sense as I thought. Striker still feels off... but as with you, I'm obviously not immediately pursuing my suspicion of him either. The truth is I don't have much more than gut on him--which is part of why I have such a bad gut feeling about him... I don't know what to think about Striker. He's very confusing xD Yes but if I was village what would I do with people who haven't done much but are vaguely on my radar? (hint: probably I'd mention them but not explicitly focus on them). : P before you state that elim!me would do something, you might try considering scenarios where village!me might do the same thing. Elandera I agree with (the suspicion on her I mean). I just don't have much to say about her because she hasn't said much and this is my... second or third game playing with her, I think, so I don't have much of a bead on her. Also, I notice that Araris never explicitly mentioned her either, which is why I asked whether he had any opinions on her. Which... he didn't really answer >> Elandera has voted oddly a couple of times (D1 she voted to break a tie when there... wasn't actually a tie; D3, just now, she voted Books without reasoning and at kind of a weird time to be voting Books at all, especially given that we now know Whysper was elim.) Wait is there a strong connection between Whysper and Striker that I'm missing??? *checks my original analysis post* well the only thing I have is that Whysper voted and then quickly unvoted Striker, which TJ has pointed out was done in a way that would be... weird for two elims to fake. I mean, effective, sure, but weird. Also, you didn't really answer my question about Elandera. I have all the mechanical arguments about her already, but I was wondering what read you have on her, independent of Whysper's flip or anything else like that. More based on tone or gut or whatnot. Striker and Araris, would you mind explaining the reasons behind your elim read of me? I mean... is it just the analysis post that I did, or is there more going back to previous cycles? So far what I've seen is that I missed stuff about context--which, first of all, of course I did because it took me three hours to write that post as it is, and second of all, of course I did because the point of my style of analysis is to consider votes only, without the context. It's not perfect, but personally I find it way too easy for elims to convince me they're village just because they sound reasonable, irrespective of what they actually do (Maill in LG74, Gears in MR46, I could go on but you get the idea). So when I do this kind of analysis, I look at what people do and less at what they say, because otherwise I never get anywhere. Besides which, seeing how people respond is always informative
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Ah, okay, I missed that in my reread of the cycle. Given that Whysper was vanilla, I could still see reasons for e!you to vote her, knowing that people who voted her last cycle might do so again. I'll keep it in mind, I suppose, but I still feel there have been many things... off, about you this game, and I can't forget that you have bussed teammates before, much as I would like to ignore that sort of paranoia (it would make this whole process much simpler if I could). Your attacks on Whysper last cycle aren't enough, at the end of the day, to counterbalance my suspicion of you even if I see them as genuine attempts to get her exed. ...well that was in response to Books, but I suppose Books was in response to you so I see why you bring it up. I explained specifically why it wasn't suspicious in my previous post, but I'll reiterate. Randby's vote was placed when the VC was Araris (3): Striker, Quinn, Books Books (3): Whysper, TJ, Ash Quinn (1): Tani TJ (1): Elan Whysper (1): Araris That is, when Randby placed her vote, Whysper wasn't in any danger at all. The only person voting for her was one of the people who was under suspicion and tied for most votes. Randby's vote would be suspicious if I thought Books was elim, but since I think Books is basically confirmed vil based on interactions from the past two cycles (and you seem to agree with me) Randby's vote isn't sus at all. It's just a choice between the two main exe targets at the time. From my inital PoE, I eliminate myself and two others. I don't really see how that's "rather selective". I'm kind of curious: what are you suspicious of with Connie/Randby? Is it just that Randby voted you instead of Books? I mean... it's not like there was really much reasoning on Books in the first place, so I definitely understand why she voted you. Also, how do you feel about Elan? You've played with her more than I have--do you have a read on her or anything yet?
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Okay! Finally, I have the time and motivation to sit down and do some serious analysis Er... fair warning, this post is long. Key: Confirmed Village Confirmed Elim Useful votes (Raw Data section only) Raw Data (not necessary reading, just for my reference): Analysis of Useful Votes: Important conclusions from that section: Tani, Ash, Books, and Forge are all village (Ash and Books I'm essentially certain about, Tani and Forge only slightly less so). Araris and Striker both have interesting connections to Whysper, and each other, which makes me suspicious of both of them. Araris also keeps contradicting his meta. The elim team is probably mostly or entirely composed of more active players. Analysis of Important VCs: Conclusions: I'll make this section short. Basically, I'm currently guessing that the team is Whysper/Araris/Striker/Elan, with maybe one of Striker or Elan being replaced by TJ. And I'll be voting Araris. More generally, of the ten living players, I know that I'm village and I am pretty confident that Tani, Ash, Books, and Forge are too, which leaves a PoE of Araris, TJ, Striker, Elan, Randby/Connie. And personally, I haven't seen much of anything suspicious from Randby (and nothing at all from Connie, who I assume is still catching up). Beyond that, the fact that Whysper was willing to agree to a Contribution Crusade and the fact that two of the NKs so far were clearly meant to be low-info make me think that the elims are mostly on the more active side--which would definitely rule out Randby/Connie, and probably also TJ.
