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Mat

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Everything posted by Mat

  1. Mat
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  4. Mat
    I did do a PM action for the Night turn, Kas, but I literally sent zero PMs and forgot to renew it for this turn Shouldn’t matter though lol
  5. Mat
    I'll just wave my sword around ig
  6. Mat
    Vibes based on their interactions, the strongest being this post. It wasn’t as confident a read as my you/Aet unpaired read and at this point I’m fine ignoring it. Sure— earlier in the turn Aet made an offhand comment about village reading Araris (I think I mentioned this in that Aet post). Later after Aeo ripped into Araris, Aet specifically called them out for it, which I only noted because Aet was already sorta going against consensus regarding Araris and I liked that they stuck to their guns. If Aet/Aeo are e/e that interaction changes and as Aet is e this is kind of a moot point but there you go. A mix of e!Aes Sedai making sense in the distro plus them being most likely forsaken plus the state of the thread and the discussion happening when I logged on to read it yesterday Edit: (I know that's a lame response-- don't have time for anything better. But basically just a continuation from the night turn and then Aet's play early this turn looked bad to me)
  7. Mat
    I guess yeah. I’d go Aeo over you though. Araris was my leading theory and my Stick not-e/e read was much stronger than my Aeo not-e/e read. Read wise I v read Aeo more than Bee, but I’m not sure if TKN would risk a two person elim team that has a chance of both dying at once to RNG so I might put Aeo as the most likely teammate anyway.
  8. Mat
    You keep saying this as if you expect it to do something for you It was yesterday, yeah, and mostly done as a result of your Forsaken case as I wanted to actually look at Aet beyond the mech thing. I tried to look for Aet connections and I at least remember thinking Aet/Aeo was not e/e.
  9. Mat
    Thread was moving fast lol Oh sure yeah that makes sense Works with my Aet theory
  10. Mat
    I honestly wasn't sure my posts were going through until now Tbh I wish I didn't need to claim cause I wanted to draw a kill but whatever I'd rather be transparent Difference check in what way?
  11. Mat
    Ninjad by kas lol
  12. Mat
    I see my roleclaim was decidedly unexciting :(. Aeo is making me want to vote them with how they're dealing with Stick rn
  13. Mat
    Sort of lost in the discussion at this point (read it quick, doing other things, can thoroughly think about it in an hour or so) but I'm a Blademaster. Not exactly sure the distro implication there-- I feel like it works pretty well with e!AesSedai w/ Warder so I'll throw my vote on Aeternum for the moment.
  14. Mat
    I meant, what do you think about the likelihood of a Forsaken being in the game, just on like a distro level Did you take an action yesterday? Nice if we can double confirm CodCam’s claim. Can’t decide how I feel about having literally the same reads list as Stick lol
  15. Mat
    Sorry, missed this until now. Other Forsaken possibilities are Forsaken!CadCom (unlikely given his unrefuted claim), someone else as the Forsaken with action shenanigans covering it up (this might not actually be possible, I haven’t run the math, unlikely either way), or no Forsaken at all (most likely alternate option). The question for me mostly becomes matching my read of you with the likelihood of a Forsaken not being included. The latter is kind of unknowable so idk. What do you think?
  16. Mat
    Sure, but at that point I also didn’t trust CadCom and wasn’t defending him. Nothing about that post had to do with CadCom specifically, it was meant as commentary on Araris. People keep mixing that up :P. (Granted, if I had been defending CadCom off an instant village read, I’d still stand by that. I’ve never had a problem with gut reads, even though it’s caused me trouble in the past.)
  17. Mat
    Agreed yeah. That was mostly to say I'm comfortable with a Null(-) read, there are more than enough alternate possibilities to e!Forsaken!Aet to explore.
  18. Mat
    Aeternum connection web-- aka things I noticed that could mean something but could mean nothing. Largely this post is made assuming e!Forsaken!Aeternum which, I know, is dangerous. (To be fair, the word "assuming" there is misleading-- but I think there's a good chance we have a Forsaken, distro-wise, and Aet is easily the best fit. It's hard to do an ISO of Aet that's entirely unbaised given that). Does anyone have a reason Aeternum isn't the Forsaken? Other than "It's CadCom" or "We don't have a Forsaken". Anyway. Generic support for Araris here early in the turn while he was under pressure. Not all that noteworthy, aside from the fact that it was the only substantial comment in Aet's first couple posts that otherwise were just "I'm here", "I need to reread the rules", etc. (Worth mentioning that Stick specifically called out this connection as not e/e) Here they question how Stick got a read on them already given their low posting levels, then proceed to make a read on basically every player in the game, including those with virtually no content (such as assigning Weirdo a 'meh'). Dunno if the inconsistency is relevant but in the case of e!Aet this list may be useful, depending on if we know how Aet represents their elim teammates (aka I should go read LG99). I would say Stick/Aet are not e/e with reasonable confidence. Aeoryi/Aet also don't feel e/e but I'm less sure about that one. Doubles down on Araris defense here (which I actually read as a + for Aet-- their previous Araris statement was weak enough to easily walk back, and even under Aeo's fire they didn't). Again, unsure if e!Aet is the type to defend, bus, or ignore teammates, or anything in between. Interestingly, in that same post Aet asked Araris a question about the Forsaken. I feel like e!Forsaken!Aet wouldn't do that with e!Araris but idk :P. Also in that post, Aet makes a comment that is consistent with them forgetting when the day end was. I was preparing to make the case that perhaps e!Forsaken!Aet lied about missing EoD to cover themselves not voting, but that doesn't work quite as well anymore. (The comment in question basically was "Tomorrow I'll sit down and make more reads", when at the time rollover was quite early tomorrow morning. There's some ambiguity here as we obviously can make reads during the Night turn, but that's not really the vibe I got from it). That's all from D1. I'm kinda conflicted; there are arguments such as the meta point Kas brought up, the Forsaken analysis, and potentially the minor inconstancies across their posting, but there are also things I like from them such as doubling down on their Araris read and showing signs of legitimately having forgotten when day end was. My overall thoughts are summed up by "would roleexe /shrug" which ik is awful but I don't lean a strong enough village to fully dissuade me from the Forsaken chance. Definitely not snapvoting Aet tomorrow by any means but I'd vote there. Not Aet teammates: Stick, Aeo, CadCom, (me) CadCom because there's no way e!CadCom virtually outs e!Forsaken!Aet here. Potential Aet teammates: RBM, Araris, Kas(?) ? on Kas because he was quick to single out Aet as the most likely Forsaken and probably could go in the above category.
  19. Mat
    Wait is the night 48 hours or am I stupid Edit: Never mind I read posts sorry
  20. Mat
    One question answered, then. I’ll deep dive Aet tonight. As much as I can, anyway.
  21. Mat
    I’d say nah for outing RBM’s partner— if they’re v/v, the elims can snipe the aes sedai in the hopes of a double NK.
  22. Mat
    Yeah idk, I'm probably wrong given my track history with this ruleset, but worth asking I think. Okay these are from last turn: Funnily enough Araris is not even one of the people I'd say made big posts last turn What made you think that you were being voted on because you didn't read Araris's posts? Not sure how I feel about this claim, mostly because I think it's village leaning but want RBM to be elim for my own validation. I was offline. It was basically just a Stick sheep, as Stick was my most solid village read, and I agreed with her point about your potential Araris TMI. That, and I didn't like any of the other trains. Can someone reconcile RBM's fixation on Weirdo the entire turn with their sudden switch off of me onto Weirdo because I cannot for the life of me understand why they did that lol For the amount of effort they went into wondering where Weirdo was/trying to get them to post, delivering the killing blow over staying on someone they had an actual reason to vote is strange. What? --- Reads are at CadCom Stick, Aeoryi Kas, RBM, Aet Araris I trust CadCom's claim and the tone of it seemed good. Still vibing with Stick. Aeo should be lower but that D1 post still gives me v!Aeo energy. Paranoiding Kas even though that never ends well, RBM's a big fat IDK, Aet's highest potential forsaken. Probably tunneling on Araris but I don't like how he basically ignored my comments on him from last turn.
  23. Mat
    Do we think the Forsaken's ability to make one of their weaves succeed trumps CadCom's weave? I kind of think it does, but I'll ping @The Unknown Ajah to weigh in: Specifically, TUA, I'm asking if the Circle of Frost stops the Forsaken from using Compulsion, if the Forsaken chooses Compulsion to automatically succeed. If I'm right, there's possibility that Stick/RBM are the Forsaken as well, but it shouldn't be anyone outside that PoE + Aet/CadCom. And given CadCom was right about Kas and just the general nature of the claim, I'm inclined to trust him. Gonna go through the end of D1 properly now.
  24. Mat
    Ah right I follow now. I was going to also put you in that PoE for the rest of us but I don't think that works actually, at least not in this specific case :p. Yeah sorry I'm slow So the Stick/RBM PoE isn't actually that good? :p.
  25. Mat
    Just caught up and saw that, yeah >> Explain to me why this is such a bad result? I understand that a misexe isn't optimal but I'm surprised by the strength of your reaction. But the Aet conversation that Stick and Kas just had I think is sort of resolved by Aet not knowing when EoD was, no? At least, forsaken!Aet not voting makes more sense. I'll make a big post going over stuff from last turn but I'm in a class rn so that's not happening for a bit lol
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