Plum Rhinoceros

Wait no that doesn't make sense, if Gecko had Rioted, net difference should have been zero on Meerkat.

Absolute Cinema! It does make sense though, elims need to find 2 v!CS and at least 1 v!Seeker, so 2 e!Seeker is not out of the realm of possibility. Ah, it looks like @Taupe Gecko Rioted. Who did you choose? I Soothed Zebra.

I went back to re-read the thread and the first post is - Look how poor and innocent we all were

Meerkat's Seeker behavior does not follow through in-thread like Beagle said. I don't really want to split votes right now, but we can resolve Axo in the night because of 2 Coinshots. edit: wait hm we cannot resolve Axo in the night because they'll just protect themselves.

I would go after Lurchers before Coinshots. Like I said earlier, e!Coinshot has been done recently, and I'd like to think that Jo/TUM would love to try their hand at balancing 2 v!CS. In that case, 3 v!Lurchers are not that much of an overkill because v!CS can friendly fire as well. 2 v!CS absolutely needs an e!Lurcher though.

smh I had just gone to get the VC, but thanks :P. Yeah we'll know about any Smokers present because v!Seeker in most cases should automatically put a Smoker in the e team.

Thank you! Yeah I'm at a point e!Meerkat(actually Smoker) + e!Lurcher would solve the game. I hope. I'm Soother for the cycle so if Gecko is in, we can try to orchestrate a vote shift from Octo. Or we're in a world where e!Octo just shot a teammate accidentally. Flipping hell. Meerkat

Rioter/Smoker-Mistborn/Kandra/Seeker team so far... Is this excluding the v!Kandra? Or is it v!KandraSeeker + 2 v!Seeker

EXACTLYY BROTHER WHAT THE HELLLL okay I skimmed without making any notes. There is still no counter claim to Octo shooting Croc, seeing Toucan shot Axo. What has happened in e!Octo world then? Like they were supposed to attack Croc and an e!Lurcher to protect Croc?? I'm more inclined to 2 v!CS and one of the Lurchers being evil. DF is good, Zebra scanned good by 2 (?) Seekers, that leaves Axo and uhhh who was the 4th Lurcher claim? Both the scenarios require an e!Lurcher.

..... What the flipping hell did I wake up to...

@Quartz Zebra, did you not find it suspicious when Axo claimed Lurcher? You were okay with the possibility of 3 v!Lurchers?

Yeah, I meant they directed it during the day and Toucan would have checked the doc and hastily voted in he thread without realising it in the night. Okay so the person they vote for when they had 4 votes, that's not distancing, but the person they vote when there is no pressure and there was an Octo train of 6 votes, that's distancing? ????? Help @Violet Axolotl @Ivory Dragonfly

What do you think about their night vote on Axo? And what do you think about Zebra and Axo themselves. Hm, I do think I'm leaning more on Toucan than Axo. 2 v!Lurchers would make sense if e!Coinshot, and Gecko is right, if there's a 4-person team (or a 5-person team with the 5th person Lion or Cham), e!CS has to submit the Saboteur kill. Toucan and Axo cannot be evil together because of Toucan's night vote on Axo. It was very close between Toucan and Ig in my head. I just made a snap judgement (in this post) in deciding that the night vote on Axo looks so incredibly directed from the Saboteur's doc, when you compare with Ig moving off Roo when Axo was ahead by 2 votes. Also, if you observe, quite a few initial poke votes from the Saboteurs' were on Saboteurs. This is the vote sequence for D1 in which Column 1 is the voter - D1 Gecko Croc DF Weasel Roo DF Zebra Oct Toucan Weasel Axo Roo Oct Meerkat DF Toucan El Roo Croc DF Weasel Weasel DF Roo Dingo Ig Axo Ig Roo Oct Axo Roo DF Tross Meerkat Zebra Croc Meerkat DF Roo Croc Meerkat Axo El Meerkat Bea Axo El Axo Heron Dingo Axo Flami Axo Roo voted on Croc, Ig voted on Roo - it might be a pattern of poke-distancing. Noted that Croc's initial vote was on Meerkat. I claimed to them in PMs, letting them know that I'd survive if they chose me as a target. Sorry, just to clarify, what is the direct evidence that I am disregarding? I don't get the FUD angle either...

Ehh, I'm not gonna fight this exe too much. I do not have Seeker for this cycle. We possibly have another Mistborn. And we are in a decent-ish good lead with a good chunk of the player list cleared to some extent. I'm okay with reading Gecko, Octo, Bea, Flami, Heron, Dingo, Tross, DF and Weasel strong to moderate village. We're just left with [Axo, Toucan, Meerkat, Zebra] + the inactives. Among these, Meerkat looks and reads like a lost/confused villager more than anything. I'll look into the others a bit later.

I said that but I still tried my best to give you one? Croc: Okay Ig, just hide on a side-train, we do not 2 e!trains nor we do want too many to be on DF because DF is going to flip. My vote on Axo won't count because I'm going to Riot and it's going it cancel. Croc couldn't come back on and/or Riot for some reason.

I saw suggestions that I should be shot last night. Since I had rolled Thug for C2, I thought it it would helpful if a couple of my top trust villagers knew that I was going to survive if I was shot. I made a PM with Bea and DF and said so. It was not me who claimed to the thread, DF is the one who outed me.

Sometimes there is no explanation, Heron. Sometimes, elim teams can be dysfunctional (you referenced AG8, what are the chances that the elim team confused their elim kill and e!Coinshot targets and end up shooting the same target?). The simplest answer I can provide to you is that, perhaps Croc was supposed to be at EoD. All their problems disappear if we just assume Croc was supposed to be there for EoD and use the Riot. As long as 1 villager was in and around the lead and the voting was quite close, everything could be saved with a single Riot. If they set-up D1 in a way that it hinged on Croc returning, and Croc simply couldn't return, what could they do?

I know I'm repeating myself but it was not an Octo case at all, if you go back to the post and read it, it contains things I found notable starting from P1 but I could only get to P2/P3 before I was called away. You can see a note on a Weasel comment as well. It's just that Octo had most notable posts up to where I read. When I came back, my only goal was to save the post instead of it getting eaten so I finished it up, unaware on anything that was happening at EoD, including Roo-Axo standoff. And again I ask, what is the point of casing someone (for the purpose of wanting a separate train) AFTER the cycle is over? The third train was the Octo train, which is why I'm looking at Axo as well. I think it could have been me as well, as I pointed out Ig's frustration at my train falling off very quickly without the opportunity to do so. Hm, I had assumed C2 Tin was El. I don't know then. Maaaybe you can make the argument that Coinshot is a 1/8 cycles opportunity and El would have used it? I don't know how you read the MB who claimed to you but please do not fall into the trap of cyclic role-exeing (I know you aren't right now, this is just a general statement to everyone). I respect Jo/TUM as a GM enough to believe they could balance 4 v!MBs. But yeah, Axo is not looking good right now looking purely through role-exe lense.

Vote singular? Or do you mean votes in D2? Which would be Albatross -> Toucan Does this mean you have received 2 x v!MB claims?

There's no indication of Elim Coinshot. If you mean the Saboteurs' Kill, anyone from the Saboteurs' team can use it. ... I'd assume you'd show a little bit of caution with some else's role info given the lead we have but oh well. I'm a village Mistborn, I rolled Thug last cycle, so I wanted to claim to a few trusted villagers (Bea and DF) in case Octopus decided to shoot me so the village is not surprised by my survival. I also claimed to Octo to let them know I'd survive if they shoot me, so that they could make an informed decision. N1 Axo shot was not me. I rolled Rioter in D1-N1 and did not use it.

Ah right, got it. Though in this case, the loudest voice was Weasel's, and because of Weasel's good village credences, elims would just have to add in their voice and not really catch flak for it.

Art's Obs - Day 2 -> Ig actually races up to 4 votes (voters - Heron, Gecko, Octo, Bea). Ig votes Toucan here, which could be distancing if they thought the day was already lost to them. I do think it is distancing here because I was on 1 vote from DF, and despite Ig mentioning me in their PoE, they vote on Toucan. Shortly after, Gecko makes shifts to Toucan to make it 3-2 Weasel begins their case on Octo. At this point, please note that Toucan voted on Octo over Ig here. Ig-Toucan-Octo -> 3-2-2 Bea moves off Ig to me. It's 2s all around. El pushes Octo to 3. but then unvotes. Back to 4 2s. Octo moves off Ig (1) to Toucan (3). Gecko moves off Toucan to Weasel. Toucan-Octo-myself -> 2-2-2 ; I really don't understand this vote at this point. Will look into it later. It's Zebra who pushes Octo to 3. Hm. Octo moves from Toucan (1) to Weasel. Gecko moves off Weasel to Dingo. Axo pushes Octo to (4). Ngl guys, I'm starting to entertain the possibility of e!Lurcher or e!Thug. Feels like they were concerned that there had been a third Lurcher claim. Refer here. Flami makes it 5 for Octo. There's an interesting post here from Heron in which he does consider a world where Octo push is e!motivated to get a hypothetical (at the time) e!Kandra to steal the CS role. Ironically, it's the post in which he is changing voting to Octo (6) I have a question about this, I'll link it below. El votes Octo. Flami unvotes Octo. Here, when all the danger to Ig seems to have passed, they shift their vote from Toucan to me. It's 6-3. Bea unvotes me to make it 6-2. Zebra shifts to Toucan. DF unvotes me and restarts the Ig train. 5 votes for Octo, and a bunch ones. Refer to a very interesting Ig post below where I explain what I think happened with them last cycle Gecko makes it 2 for Ig Gecko quotes Ig switching vote off Toucan and asks them for backup in voting for Toucan, and makes the switch as well. Octo-Toucan-Ig -> 5-2-1 Ig has to follow through on Toucan as back-up because of their early vote. Octo-Toucan-Ig -> 5-3-1 Heron moves over to Toucan. Octo-Toucan-Ig -> 4-4-1 Dingo joins in on Ig. I vote Toucan to protect Octo. Octo-Toucan-Ig -> 4-5-2 Bea and Tross also join in on Ig -> 4-5-4 Gecko unvotes Toucan to create 4-all. Octo votes Toucan in self-pres. Octo-Toucan-Ig -> 4-5-4 Flami votes Ig to create a tie. Octo-Toucan-Ig -> 4-5-5 Heron kills Ig. References -> [18] - Hypothesis - Ig's PoE for the cycle was {Toucan, Elephant, Zebra, and Rhino}. Like I said in [1], Ig races to a 4-vote lead and feels the need to protect their teammate at the prospect of losing yet another player. Chooses to distance from Toucan. I'm gleaning this from the fact that they choose to vote for Toucan who did not have any votes, over me who was on 1 vote from their PoE. When the train on Ig falls away and Oct gets a lot of heat, they feel safe to move as they think they are out of danger as Octo has gained 6 votes. They move to make me the secondary train 6-3. Now we come to the part I quoted above. I think it shows genuine frustration from them that just when they thought they had 2 semi-solid v/v trains, it falls away and the pressure is back on them. Underline mine, it is also important to note that when they said this, Toucan had 1 vote on them. So the statement "everyone with votes now other than Rhino are on my 'Don't exe today' list" is false as Toucan was in their PoE and had 1 vote on them. They just conveniently left out Toucan from this statement, and I think that is telling. Later, Gecko brings it to thread's attention that Ig had voted on Toucan before and that they were supposed to be in Ig's PoE. Ig is also at this point where they feel the pressure is back on them (their statement of coming back to find everyone get cold-feet about Octo and them being exe'd) and/or the pressure is building up on Toucan and/or was compelled to follow through with the vote on Toucan by Gecko's question because of prior distancing. To summarise, it reads like they distanced when they thought they'd get exe'd, felt relatively confident that Octo would get exe'd so stopped the distancing, then distanced again when they thought either they or Toucan would get exe'd. As such, I do think it reads like Toucan/Ig are e/e, my suggestion for the shot would be Toucan. [13] - @Mint Heron, I don't understand the sacrifice you mean here. How would the Saboteurs have to sacrifice one of their own to get the CS template?

Ig just flipped Kandra :P.

What even is this game lol Someone mentioned Kandra flips as the role they ate so this one did not. Which would mean we've likely got a Seeker That brings the Saboteurs' composition to - Seeker, Rioter, Kandra ; Seeker does hint at good quantity and quality of village PRs. Kandra depends on the gen, but it is still quite powerful that I would not expect them to have 2 of it.

Claim?