(1).png.1c4ade58c99b3f6dae65a77dbd5ded30.png)
Plum Rhinoceros
-
Posts
441 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
News
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Everything posted by Plum Rhinoceros
-
(1).thumb.png.23edd2f43b3d2405520588607efbc002.png)
The lurcher originally claimed to Meerkas and Swan, before Meerkas died N3 (they had protected Meerkas N2). The Lurcher has been kept at a distance for the most part because we did not verify them with a scan yet. We had Swan give the Lurcher the list because he was one of the first players in communication with the Lurcher (mass PMs, which apparently were for the purpose of role fishing in retrospect). The Lurcher got scanned. They didn't mention that Swan had told them they were the CS until later, when they found out the real identity of the CS (because they were scanned). This led us to start questioning things I brought it to thread to keep players informed, in case Swan somehow survives tonight. The Lurcher definitely protected Swan, so if it's true that they are a Thug, it's likely they will survive the CS kill and they need to be voted out tomorrow. Also possible they have a 2nd Lurcher, based on Flamingo's repeated survival -
i will say, maybe this falls apart in an e!Seeker world. but the seeker revealed to us e!Croc, which they could have probably gotten away with as a fake green check. might be a long term trust play on that part. in that case, i think the e!Seeker and the "v!Lurcher" would need to be in cahoots to frame Swan, but even then that's just kayana because as soon as Swan flipped V we'd begin to investigate them occam's razor just says this was a e!Swan desperation gambit after losing 2 teammates that ultimately failed.
-
i usually handle things opposite; innocent until proven guilty, don't want to overly paranoia on someone without good reasoning and shut them out of conversation, but also always maintain opsec just in case. i kinda draw the line at outright lying to players you know have been green checked tho so you're saying you lost your thug life, and the lurcher didn't protect you? yeah i think i'm going to trust the green check more
-
i think the plan was to kill the village lurcher tonight. only the previously scanned players knew who the seeker was scanning next, so Swan probably didn't expect us to find out from the lurcher their double-cross. that knowledge would have died with them otherwise
-
i do think that after croc got red checked, "wasting kills on WGG antics" is a valid strat to avoid us scanning you anytime soon. especially if you're the e!mistborn and are in the process of losing e!lurcher!flamingo too. your player risk appetite is also higher than most, so i wouldn't put it past you in the slightest the hang up to me is why you told us you're going to give the v!lurcher the shortlist we prepared and then just tell them to protect you. whether or not it ended up being the correct guess, v!you should have filled us in. not ask the v!lurcher to keep it a secret from others. it's shady mate. you realize it's shady, yeah? then what are you, cause the thing about playing "role chameleon" is that none of us can trust your role claim until it's validated. and it's clearly not, so...
-
why not ask me this in pms then when i confronted you at this point i just think you want to buy yourself another cycle part of the problem in my mind is that you "correctly" predicted the NK at all. i do believe there were much better candidates for the spiked to kill at that point. feels too convenient not to mention the fact i asked you to prove the role you claimed to me (rioter) last cycle and you made a last-minute excuse instead
-
okay, so, there's been some developments behind the scenes Swan i do believe we have located the elim!Mistborn, based on multiple player's testimonies for context, Swan has never been scanned by the Seeker. they were initially brought into the soft-cleared trust circle by Meerkat and perhaps given too much trust / info they do not know the identity of the seeker, thankfully, nor the coinshot; we have been very careful that only villagers scanned by said seeker are made aware of the big identities the problem surfaced N4, when Swan volunteered to PM the village!Lurcher!claim and give them a shortlist of players to protect (this included some seeker scans, though not the seeker or coinshot, and some red herrings just in case) instead, Swan claimed CS to the village!Lurcher!claim and directly asked for their protection, to which the village!Lurcher!claim agreed to remain quiet on the matter at the same time, the seeker scanned the village!lurcher!claim and confirmed their alignment, so we brought them into the scanned group this is when the village!lurcher who protected Swan revealed Swan's lie that they were the CS and their insistence to "keep this between them" our conclusion is that this was an attempt for e!Swan to clear themselves via WGG so that we would not seeker scan them soon i've attempted reaching out to swan in PMs for an explanation, to which he's viewed and ignored so @Coral Swan I'm calling you out mate if you don't die to the real CS tonight, and I get killed by the spiked, everyone please make sure to vote Swan tomorrow i will leave it up to the discretion of other players with knowledge on this situation to validate this, though i have volunteered to be our voice / paint a target on my back for the remaining Spiked
-
yeah, very glad we didn't let flamingo wiggle out of the noose. we cannot let the curse resume!
-
well if the D2 votes proved anything for sure, it's that Croc and Flamingo are teamed
-
well this post is at least half accurate i don't think e!Lurcher Flamingo cancels out any e!Thug Lion credences. just means that Lion can't be a Mistborn who rolled iron N3 to protect Flamingo during the gap, as he had pewter for D3. still, it makes sense for elims to prioritize Flamingo's survival over Lion's but I guess Lion could just have been a misyeet option, im just not sure why Flamingo would avoid voting v!Lion for a self-pres and focus on Chameleon instead
-
wam bam right in the flam
-
can you explain to me why you think I can't be an elim? i felt albatross raised a good point that i could have killed meerkas to assume his place
-
i did do a full reread today and uncovered a few interesting facts lion sussed croc multiple times for a comment about vote manip existing in the game, but lion also never voted him or pushed it further - i feel that was distancing, but am willing to reconsider if lion ever posts again also, on d3, flamingo avoided voting for lion, instead attempting to begin a cw on penguin then later moving to chameleon. they posted near eod when someone said flamingo was still on the table, and it came off to me as smug assurance of their survival. they didn't even seem bothered by the fact that lion was getting voted, nor did they ever comment on it, nor did they join it. that gives me the impression of flamingo being opportunistic. i haven't quite decided if that's an indication of their partnership (because flamingo knew both them and lion would survive and flamingo could get lurched) or that flamingo didnt want to join a bad wagon on a villager interested to hear others thoughts, tho it might be better speculating after this flip
-
i saw you viewing their profile and anticipated this post. shoring up my village read of you more for echoing my thoughts lion's similar radio silence is notable. i've seen him viewing this thread multiple times + rereading D4, but still no defense or public solving attempts anyway, safe travels my friend o7
-
that's fine maybe we'll scan you soon so we can bring you into the fold
-
okay, since discussion has stagnated and you're sticking to your story instead of open wolfing, i'll attempt to engage with you for the rest of this day like you're village the best thing you can do right now is use what time you have to solve. every player has a unique perspective and it's very possible you can see things we can't, especially since a lot of us are currently distracted by our assumption that you must be evil after being saved twice (something i continue to believe, but i'm always willing to hear people out) so what're your suspicions? is there anyone who's pushed you or defended you that stands out, from your pov? same line of questioning for @Opal Lion. i suspect you, but that doesn't mean i will completely dismiss your opinions and rebuttals. i've seen you viewing thread a couple times since i proposed my croc/flamingo/lion team, but you never responded. what's on your mind? if you're village, who would you like to see flipped after flamingo?
-
i thought i was being obvious, not subtle
-
it might be impossible to tell without a couple more red flips, but i think when we have an idea of crocs teammates, we may be able to see a pattern. to reiterate, i acknowledge this is prolly conf bias, but lion's vote seems abnormal to me which supports my worldview
-
One thing that's interesting: 9:25 PM, Mouse reveals Croc was scanned elim and votes Croc 9:58 PM, Swan votes Croc 10:34 PM, Penguin votes Croc 12:30 AM, Elephant votes Croc 2:20 AM, Scorpion votes Croc 3:07 AM, Rhino votes Croc 8:38 AM, Falcon votes Croc 8:47 AM, Toucan votes Croc 12:05 PM, Chameleon votes Croc 3:49 PM, Lion votes Croc 4:01 PM, Croc finally posts, insisting on his innocence 4:22 PM, Dragonfly votes Croc after a readslist (where they have rhino lower than croc?) 5:15 PM, Weasel votes Croc 5:45 PM, Hyena votes Croc 7:12 PM, Ostrich votes Croc 8:57 PM, Albatross votes Croc Note also that Flamingo never voted Croc. Do any of these posts stand out to anyone else? We can likely figure out when the elims decided to bus from this data. ED1T: Unfortunately, when D4 gets fused with the main thread, those links will all break. I may need to fix them later ED2T: From my PoV, Scorpion could be a very early busser, though I would have expected Lion to join with him instead of "forgetting" until much later if they were teamed (assuming e!Lion). Falcon could be the next earliest busser, given they asked Mouse why the seeker chose Croc over Flamingo or Lion, but I think I read that as coming from a villager-solving mentality versus an elim info fishing mentality. I personally feel like how close Lion and Croc's posts were indicates that's when Croc gave his teammates the go-ahead to bus him. That's my take, at least, so I think Dragonfly might be my next major suspicion. ED3T: Granted, a lot of my view on this is probably conf bias from prior suspicions, so take all this with a grain of salt until there's more evidence
-
thank you for your insight, this helps me solidify my village read of you o7
-
ed1t: @Sunburst Toucan, i'm assuming your negative reads are on top and positive reads are on the bottom; can you tell me a little about your views on Dragonfly? what puts them lower (higher?) than Falcon?
-
worst case scenario, we're 8 Villagers to 4 Elims, though I'm personally more inclined to believe in a smaller elim team due to multiple Flamingo survivals (9 Villagers to 3 Elims) in the unlikely chance that Flamingo does flip V, we go into N5 as 7 Villagers to 4 Elims or 8 Villagers to 3 Elims, and we can spend the entire night immediately re-evaluating for the next day. assuming Spiked attack Swan again (or another villager) and the Coinshot attacks someone who's not Flamingo (hopefully someone without protection), we'd then go into D6 with either 5/6v to 4/3e or 6/7v to 3/2e. in the worst-case scenario, that means we need to vote correctly D6 or the coinshot needs to shoot correct N6 to stop us from getting outnumbered by the Spiked. we're definitely cutting things close, but I do think getting croc when we did was a huge boon for us but yeah, im not too worried either ed1t: lmao scratch all that, my math was VERY off we're either 12 Villagers to 4 Elims rn or 13 Villagers to 3 Elims... yeah we got plenty of time, we're chilling ed2t: a fun theory alas...
-
yeah that's a valid strat, i was also hoping that elims would not kill me and instead vote me for being overtly chaotic unfortunately pretty much everyone found me suspicious, so its hard to differentiate between the two i think at this point both flamingo and lion are essential flips, whether or not my theory is right, because it's too risky to let either live and we ultimately lose nothing in trying im happy for us to attempt figuring out the e!lurcher's identity with the rest of this turn. would be easier with more red and green flips, but exploring other suspicions is better than just twiddling our thumbs and waiting
-
that was kinda the point didn't want to get fear killed too early, but after meerkas died i lost my outlet and needed to step it up
-
yeah my elim team theory atm is as follows: tineye crocodile mistborn flamingo thug lion unknown lurcher the main reason I feel flamingo and lion are paired, as well as lion and croc are paired, are as follows: lion attempted to pre-clear themselves before flamingo's flip d4, which feels like elim tmi, using their knowledge of this kayana elim distro as a reason to clear themselves after the flamingo flip we also know that croc was the tineye who posted the WoBs about animals and allomancy, given he claimed them to meerkas around d3 + those tineye messages stopped after he died, so croc never submitted a kill, and the e!lurcher obviously hasn't submitted any kills either furthermore, croc pm'd me after i voted lion on d4 to ask me why i was voting lion; i believe he thought lion had got red checked by the seeker and was trying to fish for that information, otherwise he'd just ask me why in thread. it doesn't make a lot of sense for e!croc to privately inquire why I'm voting v!lion the proposed distro above also makes sense in a v!Coinshot and v!Mistborn world + multiple protects can be balanced with a smaller team plus there's this: meerkas was the only player who knew about the "I'm the elim tineye" reaction test ahead of time, and of all the responses, lion and croc were the only ones that were anomolous. lion specifically positing that a village tineye posted it (which is true, but that's what an elim with tmi would immediately jump to) while croc began espousing theories in pms about the elims having two tineyes, which is part of why we decided to have the seeker scan croc in the first place meerkas did a very similar reaction test in ag8 by sending a tineye message that said he was scanned red, and nearly every elim had an anomolous response in the same way as what we've seen here (because they knew it was a lie) so yeah, this is where my head is ed1t: also possible flamingo is one of two e!lurchers, and thus is valued more than e!thug!lion also possible there is a fifth elim, but i don't believe that invalidates this evidence
(1).thumb.png.23edd2f43b3d2405520588607efbc002.png)