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Plum Rhinoceros

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  1. Plum Rhinoceros
    Yeah I just completely missed Ross' post. Thanks. And fair, I just... don't know. Is the double vote passive? I guess it's passive? Alright nobody listen to me I have no idea what I'm talking about. But I don't want to leave Vulture for a LAFO either. But I guess that's what my vote kind of did, I'm now realizing. Huh. I'll stay on Falcon for the time being, I suppose. No guarantees that it's locked there though. I can't do anything about it at this stage either I suppose if it is the indecision I could decide something. I'm not normally indecisive, I don't think. This is weird.
  2. Plum Rhinoceros
    My final vote is very unlikely to end up on Penguin, so if you legitimately suspect Vulture it's probably more of an actual vote than mine and you're more than welcome to leave it on if that's what you'd like. Yknow what let's just... Penguin, yeah... I'm continuing to dislike every incoming post so I think I just need to sleep on things. Not sure how to take Falcon's claim. I suppose I'll mark Falcon/Penguin as not e/e because the elims took, at maximum, one Mateform- that I'm sure. Doesn't mean they're e/v though. But I don't understand why Falcon needed to claim a PM with Penguin, effectively outing both their roles (which isn't ideal in any circumstance), and that to me reads unnecessary. And their reasoning is... less than convincing, I guess. It's very personal, and like, I definitely led the charge on Albatross, who I was in a PM with, so :P. I'll see what I think about Falcon in the morning, as well as what the count looks like. Repeating request from before: Village manips, if you exist, refrain from manipping if possible- it could be beneficial to force the elims' hand in their manip. But that does allow them to control it if they can without any repercussions, so you do you. Edit: I am fully prepared to and will vote NotVulture tomorrow if they're still leading for some reason. Doesn't really matter who it is, but I firmly believe Vulture is village.
  3. Plum Rhinoceros
    To be honest, my main reason was to watch and see how things play out, but it was added to by my sudden dislike of the Heron train and Penguin's most recent post/vote. I'm beginning to see a problem in that every vote or stance seems suspicious to me. Your vote here reads elim, as do Tuatara's reads, and there isn't a real basis for either. I'm not sure what to do. My final vote is unlikely to be on Penguin though.
  4. Plum Rhinoceros
    Hmm. A triple tie going into the final parts of the cycle could be... interesting. Chartreuse Penguin. [To be clear, that's not the only reason I voted Penguin.]
  5. Plum Rhinoceros
    I see no reason why elim!Heron couldn't find a reason to vote someone who's already been voted to tie it up and give themselves a better chance of survival. Aside from that, however- I know I said earlier that I irrationally read Heron elim? Now I irrationally am getting a really bad feeling about this train, which is somewhat annoying as two of my strongest village reads are the only voters. Otherwise I would consider voting one of Heron's voters. Which is quite a switch but the gut goes where the gut goes. @Opal Lion- I came out swinging against Vulture's post on you for various reasons, namely because I still read you as village and I definitely read you as Kas. It was less of a condemnation of Vulture's arguments and more of a validation on your behalf. @Emerald Falcon- I legitimately don't understand your vote, so I can't explain anything I did that you're referring to because I don't know what you're referring to. I think I'll further go against all my reads and vote Onyx Flamingo.
  6. Plum Rhinoceros
    I don't even know what you're referencing here, if I'm being honest. And I wouldn't say I'm in a position of trust, I'm more just noted for my activity but hovering around the nulls for most people.
  7. Plum Rhinoceros
    Can you (or someone else) clarify exactly why you're voting for Penguin? Looking at the D1 count again- And who voted, I can narrow down to a group I think holds an elim based on the assumption that at least one elim voted D1, which I think is fair. Didn't green myself for everyone else's benefit but I'm village, and I'm taking out Dragonfly as well. Removing Vulture and Lion for village reads, and Dingo, Scorpion, and Hyena as slight village leans. Those three are a lot more flexible in their village status though. That leaves Flamingo, Falcon, Heron, and Mouse. Respective reads are Null+, Null-, Null-, and Null, which maybe should have been expected. Adding Dingo, Scorp, and Hyena and the respective reads are Null++, Null+, and Slight vil. I'll probably vote within those seven, likely the first four, but I really don't know. That's simply considering who voted and my reads, and not how and where those votes landed. It's not the best way to pick an exe target, really, but it helped me think. D2's count- Sad that the Albatross train was v/v/v assuming no WGG and v!Lion. If I do a similar narrow here it makes the pool of Flamingo, Heron, Beagle with Beagle being the only new addition. I do want to read Beagle's posts again. Their self vote does look like a Warform soft and it makes me wonder if it's also and elim attempting to make their exe look like a waste of one, while also providing an excuse for their continued survival.
  8. Plum Rhinoceros
    White text and Oops Awards :P. Also something to keep in mind- Dragonfly perhaps is a higher Mavset-im target further down the road. It's... definitely A Thing that we can't even trust the attacked/survived for long. Or maybe the elims will steer clear since we'll be watching, but there are infinite mind games so I have no idea.
  9. Plum Rhinoceros
    Me too, Lion. Caught myself before pushing submit though. To me this reinforces my village read of Dragonfly though there always is WGG. Personally though since Dragonfly was already generally trusted, WGGing them doesn't seem to have much of a point so I'm sticking with village.
  10. Plum Rhinoceros
    That's what I thought D1 to be honest I'm legitimately disappointed I wasn't able to be online after my last post yesterday, because I would have switched off of Albatross, either to no one or Tuatara, because of Ross' post where he stopped self pressing. I get that it's pointless for me to say that though. My reads probably have changed but I need to think about it. I'm going to be more careful who I vote for tomorrow.
  11. Plum Rhinoceros
    Personally, I trust Dragonfly, so their vote doesn't bother me. I have an irrational elim gut read on Heron but I'm willing to look past it at least until Albatross flips. The Ross train seems to have a healthy amount of resistance, implying the elims aren't just letting it run free, but that also could just be off of the reasoning being limited. So far there hasn't really been any points in opposition of Albatross' exe, just points in favor of other exes, which is interesting. I still think Scorpion is probably village but disagree with their reasoning, and I do find it interesting that they cited only Dragonfly's comment on ties instead of their vote like others have done. Similarly, I village read Flamingo and am confused by their vote drawing it closer to a tie. I ask any village vote manipulation to not use their ability today. We could glean a lot of information by forcing the elims to be the ones to manip, or not manip. This will be my last post for the turn, and I won't be back until about this time tomorrow. Like 24 hours.
  12. Plum Rhinoceros
    Well I can't say I'm not disappointed in how the turn has gone so far, but I suppose there's still some time left.
  13. Plum Rhinoceros
    And also mildly worrisome We need discussion and condensing that isn't from 5-6 people.
  14. Plum Rhinoceros
    l will be unavailable starting in about an hour and a half and going until in about eight hours from now. I will also be unavailable for most of tomorrow; I'll be able to get on 1-2 hours before rollover but will miss rollover and the following 12-13 hours. I should be back tomorrow night and for the N2 rollover, and I'll still be here for the next hour at least but I figured I'd give the heads up while I was thinking about it.
  15. Plum Rhinoceros
    You think? :P. Let's just... move on with this, I think, everyone cool with that? Changes to previous reads: Dingo- Went from Elim to Village to Slight Elim. Moved them to village because of how consistent they were with their sus of me, and I would have thought an elim would back down. But then they backed down. /shrug Vulture- Went from Village to Null Minus. I already mentioned how it's weird how they presented a weak case and acted like it was super good. And has now backed down, but I can't say I blame them either. Other Reads: Village: Dragonfly, Flamingo, Lion Nulls: Scorpion (+), Tuatara (+), Vulture (-) Elim: Albatross, Dingo, Heron (Gut with no base)
  16. Plum Rhinoceros
    -If when you say 'one of only a few who didn't get a gem' you mean 'one of the half of the player list who didn't get a gem' then you're closer to the mark. -Sure, pre-emptive conclusions can be an elim tell, but you're assuming they're lying about RNGing the group, to which I say, why is that so hard to believe? What would Lion gain from lying about that, what's wrong with just saying he picked us for being high posters if that's what he did? -Or just because a low info kill makes sense for N1? There is no reason to add one of the top posters not dying to the list of why we should kill a top poster, especially D2. -It's an anonymous game. That's what you do. Switching playstyles is fun and jokingly imitating people is part of the game. This is entirely NAI. The fact that I think Lion actually is Kas is entirely beside the point I don't even see how Heron seems like Kas at all. -So you admit to going into your reread with known confirmation bias? Cause that's what this sounds like to me. 'The reasons I have aren't good enough, so lemme go find some more' isn't a great mindset :P. -Disagree. Personally. Paranoid villagers who have no idea who to vote and still want to can be very noncommittal. -I don't think it's functionally the same. Seeing your name in red is different from seeing your name behind the @ symbol. Poke votes aren't meant to start serious trains, and they never have been. I'm confused at this case because it isn't very strong and you're acting like it is. ~ Other miscellaneous thoughts: I legitimately think Albatross is talking different from D1/N1. Edit: But they replied in our PM this turn so they're not Mavset-im so this is a pointless sentence. Flamingo is village Dingo is... also probably village Albatross Dragonfly is probably village
  17. Plum Rhinoceros
    Yknow what I think I'll do that. All your posts that mention me includes only two so that shouldn't be too hard. I provided explanation many times, much more than you're implying. I stated the times I didn't that I would clarify if anyone asked for it, and no one did. I didn't think it'd be hard to infer the reasons for those votes and retractions anyway. I was not the only one to do this, and am not the one to do it the most. Not stating reasoning just by itself is not suspicious. If I didn't have reasons, it would be, but I do have reasons and had reasons. Didn't attack Swan, this was Ross. Which you acknowledged. Now from today: So to sum, you have one thing. A lot more instances for sure Or maybe not, hmm? Why'd you tag Lion here? "For a lot of reasons", or y'know one and a half, but that works too. How else would I have brought up the kill? Me saying all the things from that post in my first one would have been unnatural. I'm not going to state a thought and then explain exactly why I thought that unless someone needs me to, there's no reason to do that. You say that it felt like I was just saying it for the purpose of saying it, except for the post you quoted literally explained how that wasn't the case.
  18. Plum Rhinoceros
    Now you're tunneling, why am I your top suspicion? Half the reason for that was actually someone else. Was I just supposed to not mention the kill at all? It seems to me like it's far more useful to bring up how I think the kill is specifically low-info, where it doesn't actually have to be- Croc could have been killed for something in PMs, maybe something they said in their single post (though that's unlikely) but it wasn't like I was saying it for the sake of saying it.
  19. Plum Rhinoceros
    I'll go Dingo for reasons listed previously.
  20. Plum Rhinoceros
    Standard low-info kill, can't say I'm surprised. As for the gemstone stash, it looks like the Warform and Scholarform stocks are completely depleted. Nimbleform and Workform both still have 9, which is interesting, I would have expected someone to at least take Workform. Four Mateforms gone, meaning two Mateform PMs. A single Artform gone, that should be fun. No Meditationform gems gone, which is also surprising. That means that 10 gems from the village stash are missing, which is... lower than I would have guessed. Not sure what to make of that.
  21. Plum Rhinoceros
    Perhaps I'm trying very hard to be Mat.
  22. Plum Rhinoceros
    My reads of note: Vulture- Village. We are on a similar wavelength in multiple things and I don't recall ever thinking one of their points was strange or off. Scorpion- Null. Ordinarily a null wouldn't warrant a spot in the reads of note, but since it is of popular opinion that Scorpion's behavior is suspicious I find it important to disagree. To me their reaction was what I would consider normal, or at least normal enough not to think much of it. Tuatara- Null Plus. I stand by my earlier thinking that Tuatara as elim would not have posted such a controversial analysis. I agree, though, that their kill would help us narrow down where the elims could have been voting last cycle, and if people want to go more the info route and do this I wouldn't be entirely opposed. Albatross- Slight elim. I did back up on them earlier for a specific post from early D1- I don't remember exactly which one but I probably could find it again if I looked. But it made me reconsider my elim read, and then I reconsidered my reconsidering. A slight read but one that still exists and shouldn't vanish because of a single line, I think. This one is highly tentative but I suppose is also my guess for the elim on Swan's train, if there was one. Dingo- Elim. Subtly slid in a village-damaging idea in the middle of an otherwise good analysis of the rules. Pointedly tunneling on me for no apparent reason, with less than convincing arguments backing them. Lion- Village? Uncertain. It is... always uncertain with this player.
  23. Plum Rhinoceros
    That's what I figured, but you'd say that regardless. This reads genuine to me though. I don't know what it would look like if you had made an honest mistake but I also think the likelihood of you outing two teammates in your first post is low enough not to worry about it at all.
  24. Plum Rhinoceros
    Steel clarified somewhere that the village having priority isn't absolute. He said that villagers would simply have a higher percent chance of being the one to grab the gem, though he didn't say what those percentages were. I'm imagining something like, say, if four villagers and two elims went for the three warform gems, each villager would have a 20% chance of grabbing a gemstone while the elims would have 10% apiece, for a combined 80% chance for the village and a 20% chance for the elims. That's just something I made up though, but Steel can clarify the exact percents if he wants or he can leave it up in the air.
  25. Plum Rhinoceros
    You are correct, by the way. I said this earlier, when Penguin first voted me. And I am; it's quite enjoyable actually. More effort though. When I explained this to Penguin I gave a sample of my normal tone. If it were my decision, I'd move past this detail as it's NAI and potentially distracting. In other discussion, if you grabbed a gem from a supply that someone didn't, that technically makes you more likely to be village rather than elim. There's no real way to tell that though, and it's a potentially dangerous line of reasoning but still interesting.
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