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Plum Rhinoceros

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Everything posted by Plum Rhinoceros

  1. Plum Rhinoceros
    Does no one else see the implications here Hyena doesn't need to self pres for anything
  2. Plum Rhinoceros
    Oh yeah- confbias is when you read the posts of someone you suspect, looking for more reasons to suspect them instead of keeping an open mind. So when Penguin posted and you went out of your way to point out a flaw that I didn't think was even there, that's what came to mind. It's in rough order... you and Heron are about the same, with Mouse following close, and Beagle and Falcon probably are switched but below all three of the others.
  3. Plum Rhinoceros
    I do not like how the votes moved off of Hyena. Their post failed to soften my read of them at all and I'm honestly shocked that apparently I'm the minority in that. There's more than one elim; having an alibi for not submitting the kill isn't a reason not to exe someone. It mildly annoys me that the switch off was made entirely from my village reads, and I can't sus anyone for it, because it looks really sus. Team Guess: Hyena, Heron, Mouse, Beagle, Falcon Beagle's still in there but with much less confidence. I think the switch is a bad idea :P.
  4. Plum Rhinoceros
    Really? Cause I was just thinking the opposite. Just the fact that the thread has been so quiet these past hours convince me more that Tuatara is village and the elims are quietly letting this through. Hyena
  5. Plum Rhinoceros
    Why would they claim it?
  6. Plum Rhinoceros
    Thanks So 23 gems taken total, and some number of those claimed and accounted for. We should do our best, I think, to completely fill that out as unspecific as possible. Off the top of my head- My 2, Lion's, Dragonfly's, the 4 Mateforms, Heron's, Tuatara's, Vulture's- are those the only ones we know? That makes 11, which is about half :P. Dragonfly probably has another but I don't think we actually know that. Maybe you said Beagle has one idk
  7. Plum Rhinoceros
    @Opal Lion do you know off the top of your head how many gems have been taken from the village stash in total? I could check myself but WoK Shallan says that there's no point in discovering information already known, so... And then, maybe I'm misunderstanding here- you have a group of people who verifiably got a village gem D1, and then a group of people who verifiably went for one and missed- who's in neither group? An elim who went for the elim stash would be in neither group.
  8. Plum Rhinoceros
    I know I claimed two gems from the count- the one I hold right now and the Warform one that doesn't exist anymore. This isn't a problem if people with two just claim two, which I assumed would happen anyway. The elims knowing who has gems is a downside I had mentioned from the beginning, and it's something we're going to have to live with if we want this information- we're getting to the point in the game where it's do-or-die and I'm not sure if holding on to this information right now is for the best.
  9. Plum Rhinoceros
    My stance on the Mateforms: I absolutely think that no more than one of [Falcon, Scorpion, Weasel] is evil. It just does not make sense in any way for the elims to have gone for two Mateform gems. Honestly I sort of doubt any elims would go for Mateform in the first place, which admittedly weakens my vote, but I'm sort of ignoring that for now. Actually, that gives me an idea... @Everyone how do we feel about claiming if you have a gem from the village stash/are in a form from the village stash? Not which one, just that you're in one or have a gem. If there's more people claiming to be than there are gems, we know there's an elim in the pool. I'd guess with near certainty that at least one elim took a gem from the elim stash instead of the village stash, so the people that don't answer (or answer with a no) would create a pool of people that likely holds an elim. Typing it out makes me think it's not as good of an idea as I thought, because I'm realizing that the pools it creates aren't really definitive, but it potentially could be something we can do if people want to. If people don't that's fine though xD I didn't use it all when I was all formal and stuff, and they went inactive once I stopped doing that, so I'm going to guess zero ...Don't see how that's relevant to anything either, though
  10. Plum Rhinoceros
    What, exactly? Because I just reread it, and that doesn't seem to be something that can even be made a case for: It's ~10 hours before the turn ends, and the (relevant) count is- The only changes to this count here are Ross- a confirmed village- moving to Swan, and Flamingo voting Swan as well. So I guess your case makes sense if and only if Flamingo is elim, but since Flamingo voted Swan before Ross switched that doesn't make sense either. So what is making you suspect it's V/E? Exactly- and my attack being a WGG is literally the first thing everyone thought of once I survived. There would be no good in WGGing elim!me, then, because everyone would automatically think it's a WGG. It would have been completely pointless, for this reason and others, like the one Mouse brought up. I don't see why me doing anything Mat did is relevant But this does just feel like you need to come up with reasons to exe me. Like you're fighting the fact that this doesn't make sense. My action list wasn't an unprompted offhand comment, it was a direct response to Lion's accusation. You could say I gave TMI, but I'm sure if I hadn't given a complete list someone would have asked for one :P. The situation kinda demanded it, or at least I thought so. My mind was kind of fried at that point and revealing my entire action list might have just been a gut reaction. I also almost put in what gem I took lol. Restrained myself there.
  11. Plum Rhinoceros
    I updated my reads post just up there, if anyone didn't see the final version. I'll put my vote on Falcon to start.
  12. Plum Rhinoceros
    Reads: I only read past D2ish so when I finish later tonight some things might be different. I'll make a new post if that's the case. Not every person has reasoning and that's because I had to leave as I was finishing, I'll update those sorry xD EDIT: Updated now, should all be up to date.
  13. Plum Rhinoceros
    All these things have been discussed- short answer being we all have literally no idea why I was attacked, and Lion's theory (outside of a WGG :P) is indeed that I was a Scholarform candidate. Maybe I'm shooting myself in the foot by saying this, but even that doesn't make sense seeing as Vulture claimed Scholarform, but then again maybe the elims missed it in the way that I did. Reads post forthcoming.
  14. Plum Rhinoceros
    I'll take that as a compliment Thank you, Mouse, for articulating what I didn't think to I think you're trying too hard to make me be elim Just accept that a WGG doesn't make sense in this scenario. Er, that's assuming this sentence I quoted is working around Mouse's point. I can't actually tell. I'll do a reread and then post an updated reads list, I actually will, I promise
  15. Plum Rhinoceros
    Ah. Of course my brain took that as "I got passed a gem by someone in Scholarform D1" (Just... completely ignoring that this wouldn't even be possible to do before, what, D2? N2? >>) "Where's the scholar buddy who passed me that gem?" :P. Whoops yeah. Edit: Seriously @Amber Vulture no it doesn't Village me knows that if I get attacked I want to have a backup I also know that if I get targeted with Decayform I want not my Warform gem to be disintegrated- I don't know if it works for used gems but I didn't want to take chances. So I take another gem. If I were elim I wouldn't have claimed that I took another gem, I would have made up a PM or something idk but I wouldn't bring that up. My votes were bad, yeah, but I went for Flamingo over those three because I trust two of them and Flamingo posted more than Beagle so I had more to go off of them. You can't compare all of those people anyway, there's not a thread that ties them together. Might as well throw every other player into that pool as well, making the statement invalid because that's what voting is. I made a PM last night.
  16. Plum Rhinoceros
    I guess that makes sense. I think Vulture claimed he had a scholarform friend, not that he himself was scholarform.
  17. Plum Rhinoceros
    I'm aware of this, and I'm confused at this- it's why I spent rollover trying to figure it out, and why I dedicated my first post to spitting out my conclusions. I legitimately don't know why I was targeted; my guess would be faking a WGG except for I still don't think there's any way the elims could have known my role. I too expected a Dragonfly kill. My voting patterns are admittedly bad, and I'm hoping to correct that. I'm curious who the third Warform gem went to, but we'll just have to wait to figure that out. It does point to a specific elim team profile, and since I know I'm village I know that I was simply attacked. I also know I don't have the brain capacity to try to decipher that team profile so I literally am asking you to do it for me For my sake and for I suppose the game's stake, humor me and take a stab at it? If you're fine with that, that is. And again fair, yeah it's only a bit into the cycle. And I still am sticking with my village read of you, no shuffle squat for me, it's quite refreshing I do want to figure out that Art though
  18. Plum Rhinoceros
    You honestly think I was a WGG? Like, I know you like your shuffle-squat but seriously Edit: @Steeldancer, Edith is female(n)
  19. Plum Rhinoceros
    My actions: D1: Take a Warform Gem N1: Use Warform Gem D2: Make PM between me, Dragonfly, Scorpion, Heron N2: Make PM between me, Dingo D3: Take [REDACTED] Gem N3: Make PM between me, Dingo, Falcon, Flamingo I made the PM D2, Dragonfly is misremembering. I doubt they're lying on purpose because of Heron and Scorpion as well- if they're all elims, once I flip village that's a wee bit incriminating. The timestamp for my creation of said PM is 7/22/21 at 9:56 AM, or about an hour after D2 started. I took a gemstone D3 to save me an action if I got attacked. I'll be using the gem tonight. Or maybe I won't because I really don't know why I took that one.
  20. Plum Rhinoceros
    Hello, I had a Warform Gem. I don't know why I was a target, but I can see a few possibilities. The elims consist of the people who seemed to think I was trusted, and so they killed accordingly. This I find mildly likely. The elims weren't online when everyone started hard sussing me at the end for some reason. This can go alongside the first, and it's about the same likelihood imo A bit of tinfoil- N2 I created a 1-1 PM with Dingo, who read it but didn't respond. So for my PM last night I made one with Dingo (to check if they were Mavset's convertee since they didn't reply before) and two of my suspicions, Falcon and Flamingo. Because... I don't know Reasons. But if Dingo is actually Mavset, and Falcon and Flamingo are actually their teammates, then I could have been attacked so that the secret didn't get out. I ascribe extremely low likelihood to this though, and since Dingo hasn't even been online since I sent the PM there is no basis for it. I don't think I was killed to fake a WGG because there's no way for the elims to have known I was a Warform. Edit: Ninja'd by Tuatara. No. That doesn't make sense, think about it, that's the first place your mind went, it would not have been a successful play for the elims. I do think it's possible the elims will push this idea, though :P.
  21. Plum Rhinoceros
    I am not one of the people who claim this, for the record I forgot that Vulture was the other candidate (I thought it was Heron, who I also didn't like their exe, but... for some reason voted Falcon because they were my top suspicion. At that point I hadn't yet switched from 'vote my top sus' to 'vote the person of the two leading ones I sus more'.) But I didn't necessarily think the two leading trains were v/v- I just suspected other people more. I was fine on Penguin even though I had numerous other choices I would have rather gone with. Wait, no I get what you're saying there, actually, yeah that's something I legitimately did not notice. Like I just failed to connect those dots. I... am upset I failed to connect those dots. A spiral of a gut village down to a gut elim- mainly their votes. And reasons for said votes. You asked/called them out on one such switch, it's the same deal for me. The other thing here though (and this is kinda overarching) is that I haven't reread anything from past cycles. Haven't really had the time. So D1 stuff is just from memory from me, and on to now, and it's not good because I don't remember that much exactly. But I do think your elim read of me is fair :P. I've been playing pretty bad. I'm getting the vibe that I'm the elims' new favorite chew toy to elim read. We should keep in mind that with a five person team, D5 is exlo- we only have one more misexe of breathing room. The ratio right now would be 9-5. A kill tonight is 8-5, a misexe D4 is 7-5, kill 6-5, and then D5 we can't mess up. Or at all after that. I would let Lion and Vulture take the lead except for they're likely to miskill me :/
  22. Plum Rhinoceros
    My current guess is Falcon, Flamingo, [Mouse, Beagle], Tuatara or something I literally have no clue Like I am not opposed to sheeping someone tomorrow Vulture you're literally doing that thing again where you assume I'm elim so it compromises everything and it's making me elim read you more, but I also think you wouldn't do the same thing twice.
  23. Plum Rhinoceros
    Jumping on Swan D1, pushing Penguin for limited reasons longer than anyone else has, and some other switches before those final votes that I thought were weird. I don't know :P.
  24. Plum Rhinoceros
    I was as well. Sent one, too :P. If Vulture is elim I'm going to be very sad. But I do like their idea about creating PMs tonight to hopefully tomorrow be able to narrow down who could have submitted the kill, so anyone who has an action to spare should consider doing that. The PM doesn't have to go anywhere, even, I suppose it can simply be to show that an action was used. Planning to look through the vcs and hopefully come up with a conclusion, but perhaps I should stop doing that. It hasn't been going well for me. General first impressions though is that it's not reaching to guess that 1/4 Mateforms is elim, but that's a dangerous guess and not a reason to exe. I also think Flamingo's voting pattern sticks out as the most suspicious to me.
  25. Plum Rhinoceros
    I didn't notice at first, and only when today I looked back and reflected. Yesterday I just went with my greatest suspicion, which is where I am now, and I don't like either train- but I also realize that if I act on my suspicions, I need to act on my trusts, and I do trust Vulture. Penguin's flip will give us more information anyway, since they've been a candidate all three days. I don't like it, but I think Vulture's village. I will switch off if Penguin gains a bigger lead. You can totally still do it though, with the code. I type that on a computer anyway.
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