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Indigo Weasel
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Let the games begin!! -
Nibbles baked one last goodie, for Araris, our steadfast GM, whose birthday Nibbles forgot to celebrate. Thanks to Kas too, for the fun write-ups. The fortune cookie death is everything I'd hoped it would be. Good game, everyone. The vibes were great this AG! Apologies to the new players who were quickly executed or aggressively bussed. Those of you who were NKed deserved it, especially Croc. Guessing X in hangman is unforgivable. Hyena, Heron, congratulations and thank you. It's been a fun couple of weeks.
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Your last meal wouldn't be complete without dessert:
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Nibbles is a sucker for food metaphors. You have Nibbles' vote. >:-) Charcoal Hyena
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Ah, Nibbles thinks we lose here. Two elims can outnumber a Thug, so that's unhelpful. There's an edge-case where the Soothes were just their Mistborn being incredibly lucky two rounds in a row. Based on how protected they were throughout the game, Nibbles thinks Hyena must be the Mistborn. Our odds of victory slightly improve if we hit the other elim, since they can't have rolled Thug. So technically the best play here is voting Vulture. What role were you anyway? Would anyone like to partake in this last meal with Nibbles?
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Nibbles will be sad when Penguin is turned into too. Penguin, D2 you said you were a Soother, right? Did you Soothe the vote last Day or is there a second vote manip lurking around?
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Gah. Nibbles should have been there. Too busy making We get one more round and Nibbles is voting hyena then falcon going forward Welcome
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Vulture Not because Nibbles is especially compelled by those answers, but because Nibbles has better things to do right now. Dragonfly, my guy! Nibbles offers a if you can explain why you aren't paired with Hyena. Maybe they broke the tie to save you both
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Vulture Why? Edit (rather than double posting): C'mon gang, it's too quiet right now. Looking at Day Four, @Amber Vulture supports Heron's chances of survival. D2 and D3 they vanity vote when it didn't really matter, and Nibbles doesn't think they were around monitoring the situation enough to change their vote if e!they'd had to. Staying to the side when there was no pressure on elims, then voting Dragonfly when Heron was under threat looks like an elim trying to fly under the radar most of the time. Vulture, why are you voting Hyena today? And how do you square your voting history?
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Nibbles first read was that when the Hyena voter was killed, Hyena looked more suspicious. But we should really spend the day considering every option so we get this right, so carry on. The smoker target was selected the Night before, so intent is less relevant. They might have seen Nibbles voting Swan coming, and known Swan was likely to Soothe Nibbles. That'd imply they're most focused on proving their role, not protecting Swan. But they voted Swan, so it tracks with their suspicions. Nibbles agrees, but there's situations where E!Mistborn rolled vote manip for the round and had to use it before they lost it. A full Soother hiding their ability using there doesn't make much sense since, ignorant of Dragonfly's coppercloud, they would have brought it to 50/50 at best. Maybe it's worth trying to save E!Hyena anyway, especially if they're the Soother. Nibbles is backing off of the village cred they gave Dragonfly for claiming Smoker initially. It turned into a difference check with E!Heron, which means one of them walks away looking good. The random thoughts Nibbles has about Dragonfly is that they took a long time to answer Swan's challenge where the GMs removed a rules clarification and messed them up. They took a long time with that one, meaning they waited for a GM response before telling their story, they didn't explain the truth first and then count on the GM to back them up. That's cautious playing. Nibbles wonders if part of the confusion is that they copy/pasted the original rules into the elim doc and had to sort out the later discrepancy. Based on yesterday's vote, they might be paired with E!Hyena. Otherwise, it's Vulture or Penguin. Time for brain food
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So, another Soother then? Nibbles wonders if they've attempted to vote manip before and failed, thus going unnoticed until now. The distro would be something like Smoker/Smoker/Smoker/Rioter/Soother/Soother. It's swingy, but maybe that's why there's so many Smokers. Or it could just be E!Mistborn who rolled that. Hyena should definitely be the next vote
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Don't love that. Time for snacks. Based on their EOD (end of day) statement, Swan Soothed Nibbles' vote. That should have made it Swan (2), Hyena (3). Instead, it's Swan (3), Hyena (2). +1 on Swan, -1 on Hyena. That looks like a Rioter among the voters for Hyena, specifically Vulture or Mouse. Did Rioter!Mouse need to vote late if they wanted this outcome? It's more likely Rioter!Vulture being protective of E!Hyena.
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And whose fault is that? This feels like a possible pair, with Dragonfly having the confidence their claim wouldn't be tested because Swan is their teammate. It also explains why there's so many smoker claims if Dragonfly is really a Mistborn Nibbles is cooking
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Now you're doing it on purpose, Mango Man Would you vote Dragonfly today, Swan?
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Have we really not tested Dragonfly's claim yet? Or were we just relying on the early claim not being a bluff? What is WIM? Will Investigate Mangoes?
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Ok, replace distancing with never wanted to vote them. In a post that round, you stated suspicions of Heron (apparently because asked to), Dragonfly, and who you voted for, Ostrich. You controlled how the tie would break because of your Soothe. Seems like the best case scenario that you got to have all be under serious pressure, so why express concern about how tight it is? Unless one of the people under pressure was your teammate. Feels like we should look at the people who acted to protect them before looking at bussers on a day when they didn't die. D4 Nibbles would guess it might not be clean, but D3 has a better chance of being clean
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Swan's Day 3 comments super cut. Swan's quotes are in violet: Early in the day, VC at Vulture (2), Dragonfly (1), Dingo (1). Something something elims being the second vote on wagons Heron quote: Nibbles thinks they might have tried to distance here. "You've avoided attention" isn't a very strong accusation. Edit: Open this box for highlights ^ That's about as weak as you can get. *20 minutes later* As telegraphed, Swan changes their mind. Nibbles is surprised that they went with the person who had given them the least to analyze. No one else's lists or posts stood out, so they went with the mystery box? Swan voted for Heron earlier, and called Dragonfly suspicious too. (See highlights). You're voting Ostrich, and you suspected the other two earlier in the round. And you're a Soother. Why so worried when this is such a productive VC? vibes Hyena: Going to note Hyena's breaking of the tie that saves Heron, since that's relevant for reading them.
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/shrug We've got three exes left to get someone. Nibbles wants to go down this list: Swan - Ostrich CW leader D3 Hyena - D1 vote protected Heron, D3 was on Ostrich too Vulture - Amber "Vanity Wagon" Vulture is hard to read Falcon - Sleeper Mistborn candidate based on how early they claimed vanilla, but Nibble's suspicion of them comes from their Dragonfly over Swan advocacy Mouse - Two e!Smokers is less likely. Unless paired with Swan, probably village. Penguin - Village credit for the D2 vote on Heron Dragonfly - Claimed Smoker in response to Heron's smoke, which revealed info to try and game solve. Seems villagery Welcome back, here's a . The main thing Nibbles would like to hear your thoughts on is the vote tie you broke D1 that shielded Heron, and how you feel about D3 with the Ostrich vote.
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Assuming you turned your cloud on at the start of the game, it might still be worth checking. The world where you're evil must be a team of Mistborn-Smoker-Smoker. Nibbles fully believes Araris is willing to make a double Smoker team for the lols, but it doesn't balance super well. We for sure can't have an elim team with Smoker!Mouse and anyone with a confirmed role, since we need a Mistborn in there. Let's propose they can't be partners with Dragonfly or Swan. Nibbles isn't very interested in voting mouse today. Have a of immunity for the round Dragonfly Swan
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Mistborn Mouse Theory Update: They probably aren't. We know the mistborn coinshot last night. For Mouse to have a smokescreen up today (which is the only reason they'd claim now, since they have to expect us to try to verify it), they'd have to had had copper yesterday. We know the mistborn had steel instead. There could be shenanigans with E!Dragonfly sharing their cloud, or E!Swan not really verifying the claim. Trust but verify, so Nibbles asks that Swan consider Soothing Mouse today. But they probably are a regular Smoker, which is probably indicative of Village alignment. Tea, anyone?
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Nibbles hallucinated. Too much eaten before bed Dragonfly, Nibbles would rather vote Swan, but needs an explanation
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Counter wagon. Like when you're making but someone brings in You said you didn't know you'd end up causing the D1 tie, right?
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There's probably not three evil smokers... Why keep this quiet when the two smokers debate was raging? Two village smokers is more likely than three, so it would have been a good clue to keep pursuing that route. Have you done anything with your power so far? Nibbles will give you some if you tell them what a PR is What are you trying to figure out? @Coral Swan should know * The team Nibbles is contemplating is Swan-Falcon. D2 Swan gives Heron a 1/4 chance of dying. Villagey. D3 Swan solidifies the CW on Ostrich. Scummy. D4 Swan and Falcon lowkey start a CW. Scummy. Falcon suspicion comes from them diverting momentum away from Swan onto Dragonfly, being the first to suggest they're e/e. ******* Swan ninja'd Nibbles. Nibbles had forgotten about the Dragonfly discrepancy. Quick list: No more than one evil in this group: -Hyena -Penguin -Vulture Gotta be someone evil here: -Mouse, if a MB who rolled smoke, is likely evil. If not, probably good mechanically -Falcon, if Swan is evil, is likely evil. Nibbles forgot about the Dragonfly thing, which changes a lot -Dragonfly, if a liar, is likely evil -Swan helped Heron a lot
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Ok ok bad news, two deaths. Good news, there's an evil mistborn! Dingo said they Soothed yesterday, hence the missing vote in addition to Swan's. Unless someone wants to counter claim that, Nibbles' working assumption is that it was an evil mistborn coinshooting we just saw, which has long made sense for balance reasons. Due to action economy, that hard clears the Tineye, if anyone would like to claim that. (Looking at yous, Penguin/Vulture.) Assuming honest Smoker and Soother claims, it also means that only one of Swan or Dragonfly are evil. Anyone else take a verifiable night action? Edit: Ignore the Tineye thought. The Tineye is dead, long live the Tineye.
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Um, Acks -ually, Mistborn can repeatedly roll powers, it's just less likely to get repeats Nibbles has thoughts about the vote manipulation, but will wait for Dragonfly to comment first
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