Indigo Weasel

Okay, so I should be asking Dragonfly instead, got it, Rhino. @Ivory Dragonfly what was your reasoning?

So, I called out Octo for this last night, and while it seems Octo is an actual coinshot, I’d like to ask Rhino why he roleclaimed, as we are in a similar position to what we had with Octopus, and I’d like to hear you explanation for why you roleclaimed Mistbor.

Agreed, while I cannot fathom the reasoning, and it doesn’t make sense to me, I am starting to believe Octo is actually the Coinshot

It’s night 2?

So I didn’t notice it was night, so my bad, so here’s what I put in the day 2. (In response to people asking why I’m assuming people are experienced rather than inexperienced) You are right, people may not see the same things. I’m considering everyone as experienced and knowing what they’re doing, because in my opinion, overestimating them is better than underestimating them. If I assume people are new-ish, that doesn’t tell me exactly what they’re at. Different people start at different lvls of being good at this. If I assume everyone’s experienced, that means there’s only one value I have to think about. Out of the two, did rather assume they’re experienced, because that means I won’t throw something aside based on their “inexperience” plus, I’m pretty sure the Elims probably have someone deepwolfing as a inexperienced person So, now my opinions on what happened so far, Iguana being a saboteur does make me more likely to believe Octo is actually the village coinshot, as much as I think his reasoning is sketchy. I advocate against killing anyone with coinshot right now.

So, people keep saying that I’m overestimating people’s play. That I’m expecting people to be more strategic and such. Which makes sense, not everyone plays the way I do. However: I would like to make the point that this is an anonymous game. Unless someone recognizes someone else from their playstyle or word choice or something. There is no way to tell who is and isn’t experienced. It is highly possible someone is faking inexperience. Deepwolfing has been brought up, this is no different from that. In fact, I’d say deepwolfing now is probably easier than deepwolfing in other games. I’m treating everyone as if they are playing strategically because this is perfect ground for deepwolfing, we can’t call people out for acting differently. I would be surprised if the Elims don’t have someone deepwolfing in some way(I may be biased in favor of deepwolfing because I’ve done it before to win)

I literally can’t, I’m asleep then, so rest assured my vote will stay on Octo, unless you do something incredibly suspicious.

Okay, I had a rehearsal I had to be at, but I can answer this now. it is entirely possible this was premeditated, but it would probably be a backup, as the Elims would have no way of knowing that they were going to lose one. I don’t really think there’s a way to tell though. it is possible this was a mistake by Octopus, but Octopus hasn’t said anything to further that thought. He never said claiming was a mistake, in fact, he’s doubled down saying he was trying to get himself off the chopping block. So while it’s possible, I don’t think so. You are right, there’s no way for him to do everything optimally, but if if was a mistake, Octopus probably would’ve said that, or try to throw doubt on the fact that he claimed coinshot or something. There are many ways to fix or at least throw doubt on this, even in the case of a mistake.

Melon Dingo, they claimed earlier today. And if that’s not the person you missed, Dragonfly and Axolotl have also claimed Lurcher. So that’s three, with the possibility of more, plus thugs(assuming we have some)

In the case I’m wrong, we exe a coinshot that has shown an ability to hit Elims, and we have one less kill every night. In that case. It may not matter. So far three lurchers have claimed in thread, which means that we have quite a lot of protection during night, and we may have more than three. The point is that the majority of people will be protected and so it is entirely possible that whoever you would’ve targeted as a V!coinshot would have been protected by a lurcher, or a thug. N1 had 2/3 people protected. If we keep that ratio, that means we’ll have nights no one dies. In a world where you are a V!coinshot and we vote you out, it is possible that it simply does not matter. That said, I don’t think I’m wrong. I wouldn’t be voting you if otherwise. As for convincing me you’re a coinshot, you don’t need to right now. I’m not sure the vc exactly, but I believe we’re both tied for votes right now. You’d have to convince me that you’re a coinshot well enough that I’d be willing to get voted out, when I am the only person I know 100% is village. You don’t need to convince me. And I find it weird that you seem to think you do, but that could just be a feeling.

You would still have to read the write-up. You wouldn’t have known an Elim was killed until you read the write up. Regardless of whether you’re Elim or Village you still would have read the write-up, so this doesn’t mean anything. And this is your biggest reason? It doesn’t even support you. getting you off the chopping block assumes you would have been exed. And until I started pressing you, the votes were on Toucan and Iguana. And also, there are other ways of doing that than just claiming an important role. You could have explained your reasoning for what you did that made people want to vote you. And instead you went claiming coinshot. There are better ways to do this, and claiming coinshot is probably the worst one. If this is your reason, you felt you couldn’t explain your other actions, which is very elim-y to me. and of course no one’s counterclaimed. The coinshot will just kill you at night. And, what if they do? We then know that one of the two is lying, but we don’t know who. An Elim could claim coinshot in response to the real coinshot just as much as a real coinshot would claim in response to a fake coinshot, the other people have no way of knowing who’s who. And, the real coinshot just made it so they could be hit at night. And while yes, this does mean they’d lose an, Elim, that only happens if the Coinshot claims, and it’s not a 1-1. We lose a Coinshot kill while the Elims lose a Elim. As I’ve mentioned before, claiming Coinshot is a terrible move, and your reasons either don’t support you, or there are simply better ways to do it.

And that’s worth potentially getting exed and losing a coinshot for the rest of the game? If you’re going to do that, do it when it matters, there’s no need to give that out unless you need to. As far as I’m aware, I’m the only person who’s voted you today. And that was because you claimed Coinshot.

It’s not 1-1 though. The Elims would be trading 1 less kill per night that could potentially hit their people, for 1 person, and they wouldn’t even lose their nightly kill. If the Coinshot would’ve hit one Elim, that makes this a net zero(edit: it would mean the Elims get a free kill, not even, because the guy would’ve died anyways and they get a Coinshot kill), if it hits two, that makes the trade positive. And this isn’t the only reason for an Elim claiming. Stealing lurcher protection is arguably even more valuable, depending on how many there are. 2/3 people were protected, which is significant if the Elims want to make progress. And it absolutely wasn’t smart, that’s why I don’t believe, because I don’t see a single reason why claiming would be even remotely beneficial. @Scarlet Octopus why in the world did you claim? What benefit could there even be.

Claiming Coinshot is a stupid move. Even if the real coinshot comes forward and says they did it. For one it’s word against word, and two, we’re in the same situation as before, claiming coinshot means the Elims can now know who the coinshot is. And right now, Octopus claiming Coinshot for no reason, other than to brag about exeing and Elim. Is a fantastically terrible idea. There is no advantage gained from doing this. As for easily being disproven, why would a Coinshot speak up? They’ll just hit him night 2. Claiming coinshot would mean Elims know they’re a Coinshot, and the. Target them, and the lurchers won’t know who to protect. There is no advantage to claiming coinshot. Just problems and mistakes, if coinshot has to tell role, the best move would be to do it in Pm to a lurcher, and try and get them to protect you at night. It is entirely possible that Octopus claimed Coinshot in order to get another Coinshot to claim. Which reveals role and therefore can get exed. Why do you believe Octopus?

So this is based on my earlier assumption that the attempt on killing Beagle was on purpose. So based on that, something Beagle did or said must have caused the Elims to try and kill him.(we know it was Elims because it says the saboteurs attempted to kill him, but failed) So, there was only a few posts to go on, but the things that were consistent across it all was suspicion on Axolotl, Kangaroo, and Elephant. Now, obviously Beagle was right about Kangaroo, but that can’t have been the reason because Kangaroo was outed D1, and so there’s no reason to kill for that. That leaves Elephant and Axolotl. Elephant V!leaned Ado, but that doesn’t mean that he’s Elim. Axolotl Voted Kangaroo, but changed it to DF later, and said the original vote was a poke vote. While Axolotl did vote Kangaroo, it was changed, and so Axolotl didn’t vote Kangaroo when it mattered. E!lean on Axolotl, slight V!lean on Elephant. I think Axolotl voted Kangaroo to distanced themself, but then changed so it didn’t matter. However, I’m not voting Axolotl because I feel more certain about someone else. So… I don’t like that. Claiming Lurcher doesn’t mean anything, it’s easy to fake. As for Octopus, if they’re telling the truth about being a coinshot, that is an absolute terrible move. Revealing Coinshot means that the Elims know who to target next Night. And while Octopus could be trusting that one of the people who have claimed Lurcher would protect him, as I mentioned, Lurcher is an easy role to fake. Octo is basically relying on people to protect them, and doesn’t even gain advantage for it, there is no reason to reveal as coinshot. And, if Octo is Elim, this could be an attempt to get one of the lurchers(assuming they’re telling the truth) to waste a lurch on him. Octopus was also one of the three people to vote DF right after one another, and I’ve already done analysis on that. Overall, I think Octopus is an Elim, and they’re a better target than Axolotl because that was based on the assumption that the hit wasn’t random. Which is could be(sorry I took a little longer to write this, I had to add the part about Octopus after Iguana posted)

Would you mind giving reasoning for that list? It’s possible I missed you explaining it earlier, but just in case, I’d like to know Edit: I have my analysis of Beagle and what they said that could possibly attribute to the Elims attack. But I need someone else to post so I’m not double posting

So, we basically got a soft clear on beagle, if not a hard clear. I’m going to go look at their posts in the past day and night. if the kill was random, not much we can gain from it, but assuming there was a reason, it has to be in their posts as PMs weren’t open till today. I think it’s a safe bet assuming it wasn’t random, so I’ll go look at that and see what I can find, I’ll give some analysis of it later. Third smiled, “these saboteurs have made a classic blunder, revealing their hand to early, a fact my training by the ancient dragons will easily exploit.”

So we have a DragonFly Lurcher claim and Axolotl Lurcher claim. Unless the Distro is completely crazy, at least one of them is lying

Okay, so this is my analysis of Scarlet Octopus and Salmon Meerkat after I said I poke voted Dragonfly. since I can’t quote from another topic, I’ll have to summarize, but everything will be in order. Okay, so I don’t like how Octopus just voted, and just did Rp from there on. Meerkat did respond to some people about his vote, but they haven’t posted much. It’s only N1 so fair. This doesn’t really give anything either way. Slight E!lean on Octopus for just Rp and not doing much, but until they post again, there’s not much to go off of. @Salmon Meerkat @Scarlet Octopus Anything you want to say?

Okay, so now that we know Kangaroo was Elim, we need to look back at the other two who voted with her on Dragonfly. Ive already done an analysis on those three for the first bit of d1, but Ill have to look at what they do after I said my Dragonfly vote was a poke vote. Do we know how may Elims there are? Otherwise I’m going with 4, so 3 now. Third of the Tide smiled, “And once again, the politics taught to me by the Azish Prime prove their worth, we found one of the saboteurs.” He paused before adding, “I hope this convinces all the doubters that I do indeed know the Azish Prime”

My lean is confused. And while I mentioned how the rp was decided before roles where given out, and so it doesn’t mean either way, I’d be perfectly fine with exe-ing them so I don’t have to deal with it. But V!lean, I’m not completely caught up on the previous page, but for now this stands

Huh? What? This is confusing, you changed your vote twice in the same post. What is going on???

Huh, I accidentally caused a tie. Considering it’s d1 though, that’s a pretty good situation to be in, I suppose. Third blinked. He hadn’t considered that… well, time to role with it ”And so, you can see my masterful mind, expanded by ascending to a shard, I was able to both vote the right person and cause a tie, one of the most informative vote situations. While I gave up the shard and no longer have its power, the effects still remain”

@Mauve Crocodile thanks for the reminder, I kinda forgot, I’ve been busy, but here are my thoughts. And this is up to until I say I poke voted, which changes how people react to it. First off, I didn’t get voted in that time frame, so most likely I did not hit an Elim. There didn’t seem to be any retaliation or defense going on. All the counter trains happened after I said it was a poke vote, so I’ll ignore those for now. Here, seems like potential TMI, how would they know that we have a messenger that’s not a Tineye? There’s no reason to assume that. Either Dragonfly is referencing themself this gives e!lean, but I’m lot convinced that dragonfly actually is yet, especially considering no indication of retaliation or counter trains until after I say my vote was a poke vote. This seems to be an attack based on Rp, which was decided before we were given our roles and alignments. It’s possible that Dragonfly came up with their specific Rp because of how easy it is to mislead/avoid the question, but while it’s frustrating, doesn’t give any hints to whether E!lean or V!lean. So I think this is just Meerkat looking for an excuse to vote Dragonfly, E!lean. Now here, it’s due to Dragonfly changing their vote. Which makes sense. Not giving a reason, is fine. I’d dismiss this except for the timing of all these posts. No reason, the same thing Scarlet Octopus votes Dragonfly for. The problem is that all three of these votes happened right after one another, and all of them don’t seem to have much of an explanation(exception being Octopus). This makes me want to give an E!lean on all three. however, we have the following which happened shortly after. This, makes sense. And implies a V!lean Meerkat, so I’m willing to let slide the E!lean from his earlier post. For Octopus as well, there’s some reasoning. I think Sage Kangaroo because while the timing is very weird with all three, Octopus has actual reasoning, and Meerkat calls out Kangaroo on it their lack of reasoning. While it is possible that all three are elims, and Meerkat was trying to make the situation less suspicious, in both cases Kangaroo is Elim and should be voted out. So it’s a fairly safe bet. Time for some Rp: Third watched the coordination, one after another, three votes all on the same person, each lacking in reasoning. “My good friend, and God-King of Hallendren told me to always watch for patterns, and thanks to my training under the Azish Prime, I feel confident in saying that that pattern is not natural, but a indication of deceit.” Third of the Tide cast his vote, “Always hedge your bets, that’s what I learned from one of the greatest gamblers in Shinovar, luckily, they also taught me about being wrong.” Third turned his stare to Isabel(Sage Kangaroo) ”Your Move.” Edit:

The only real problem with all this amazing Rp is that it’s really hard to see what people are actually saying, as idk what’s flavor and what’s their actual thoughts. Doing Analysis is hard right now That said… ”When everyone’s putting up faces, no one is” -Third of the Tide quoting his famous author friend