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Saffron Iguana
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Maybe, but I'd just like to attract your attention to the text in Elbereth's signature: "Confirmed good does not equal confirmed right." -
Hmmm, that would work too. You cancelling the vote by scorpion, and then one of Minter heron or meerkat willshaping the other's vote would also result in this vote count. Meerkat willshaping heron's vote to falcon would make the most sense of those two, I think.
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Well, ugh. I won't apologize for starting that lynch because I needed to know, but still. An interesting factor is that there where, apparently, two bondsmiths that erased the votes on meerkat an toucan. I could see the vote on meerkat being erased by meerkat himself, or a team-mate if meerkat is evil, but I really don't get why someone would take out meerkat's vote on toucan. Anyway, I'm catching up to what happened after I checked out yesterday. @Salmon Meerkat, I've got two questions regarding your analysis. First, regarding Toucan, could you expand on why their alignment would be so telling? AFAIK, mine is the only one that would relate to theirs. Secondly, why does your read on axolotl depend on Albatros' read?
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The one post by meerkat that looks bad as far as I can tell is this one: specifically, the last paragraph of this section: The way meerkat brings up octopus here is a bit hedgy and leaning towards a village read without out-right stating it. Apart form that, I have't really found anything else to make meerkat look suspicious. That's a bit off an overall problem though. Most remaining players are either not that active, have been cleared fairly solidly already, or are falcon, so the case on anyone else would by necessity be based on relatively small stuff, as there just isn't that much.
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Ugh, it's too late in the cycle for me to be able to afford to be so indecisive. I think Falcon needs to be resolved in one way or another because they're such an important factor this game, and the best ways to do that are to either: let him lead the lynch in the hope that village!falcon leads us to an elim, clearing himself in the process. Lynch falcon. I've realized that I'm not quite comfortable with letting falcon lead the lynch, so that means the only other option open to me is Axolotl falcon. I would like everyone to, as much as possible, consolidate their vote either with falcon or against him, as with the amount of inactivity going on there might not be enough active village votes left to split the lynch more than two ways without handing control to the elims if there's more than one left.
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Alright, I'm doing my big falcon reread. Things in favor of village!falcon: -Just generally talks a lot and encourages activity Things in favor of elim!falcon: Falcon reasoned against the Zebra lynch: Though in hindsight this looks bad, I don't disagree with the reasoning itself, as I've mentioned several times I think that lynch was bad myself. What I do think is noteworthy is Falcon's lack of attempt to swing the lynch themselves, which could hint at them not wanting to get too deeply involved there themselves. And... that's honestly it wrt smoking guns. If falcon is an elim, they've done a pretty remarkable job at not getting too deeply involved with any of the suspects to be at risk of getting caught by association. That having been said, this cuts both ways. Off the two elims that where actually discussed, falcon never mentioned Rhino before they got outed, and while they had quite a few interactions with octopus, they never really pushed on octopus, if that makes sense. All in all, this reread really hasn't helped me make up my mind.
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It's more that you where reading octopus as village for something that you yourself had also done which stood out to me, so there's an implied 'look, I'm also village' there. Maybe I'm reading too much into that though.
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So I've been rereading the Lion Lynch. The first statement of suspicion on Rhino during that cycle came from Albatross, who didn't act on it. At that time the lynch still favored me and Toucan. The first vote after that discussion was axolotl voting on Albatross, bringing albatross to a tie with me, and one vote behind toucan. The Emerald falcon started off the Lion thing by switching away from Toucan to Lion. Swan added a second vote to albatross moving them in the lead. Gecko then added another vote to Lion. After that, amber vulture added a vote onto Rhino. After that, we had octopus, albatross and then vulture add a vote, with me adding a final one on top using vote manipulation. The two points where I think elim votes in the lynch where most likely was shortly after Albatross' discussion with rhino, and after vulture's vote. Those votes would be axolotl's and Octopus's vote respectively. We know octopus was evil, but Axolotl's posts, apart from that vote on albatross, don't shed much light on their alignment I could see Meerkat being an elim, in a way similar to that I could see you as being an elim. They (used to) talk a lot and share a bunch of reads, and these include a read on octopus post Lion lynch that looks off seeing how octopus flipped. Regarding Scorpion, yeah, I think I can see that. This post in particular: with this section: In addition to covering for octopus, scorpion is also praising their own actions here as village, without actually bringing it up, which definitely stands out to me. Scorpion is throwing in a lot of effort this cycle, but that's not necessarily Alignment indicative. This also brings me to another point though. At this point, only six people have spoken up. These are the same six that have had a reasonable degree of activity throughout most of the game. If there's only one elim left, this is not too troublesome yet. If there's two active elims left, this cycle is essentially Lylo, so I'd like everyone to think long and hard on their choice for vote, as this one in particular might matter a whole lot more than the current player count might suggest. Speaking off votes, in this post I've discussed some suspicions of scorpion, meerkat and axolotl. Out of these three, Scorpion is the most suspicious to me. However, there's also Falcon to consider. If there's a deepwolf this game it has to be falcon. Falcon also suggested both the Meerkat and Scorpion lynches, so voting on either off those means accepting that falcon is village. So that leaves me with three options. Vote one of scorpion or meerkat, vote falcon, or vote axolotl. I'm going to need to do another reread of falcon to try and settle my thoughts on them one way or another, but for now I'll vote axolotl. They are not my greatest suspicion among these four (that'd be, as I said before, scorpion), but I want to see what, if anything, happens when I am contrarian and push for a lynch that falcon didn't push for.
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During D1, in PM with someone (Tuatara, I think) I mentioned that I wasn't looking forward to the massed dustbringer cycle. And here we are. Okay, so if I'm reading this correctly (based on how dustbringer kills tend to be fire-themed, and elim kills tend to not be fire-themed) it seems like the attempt on Albatross was the elim kill (which makes sense, as I don't think any villager would consider albatross suspicious enough for a kill). As for the other kills, Octopus is obviously village, and I think Opal Lion is more likely to be a village kill as well. Swan could go either way, but is more likely a village kill as well given their low activity. Amber could also go either way. A couple of people trusted them for good reason, but they weren't a big enough pressence most of the time that I can rule out a villager shooting a lower active. Still, if I had to guess I'd say that was an elim kill, especially with the write-up suggesting that max was responsible for part of the conflagration. Actually, the writeup suggests that all the fire kills where done by the elims, but that would mean there's still at least another four alive, with a starting team size of 8, which seems... excessive. Anyway, octopus died and flipped elim, so let's see if they said anything interesting. Luckily, Scarlet Octopus did post quite a few reads and analysis. in this post: He mentioned that he expected there to be a pair of elim team-mates among: (Toucan/Iguana), (Iguana/Falcon), or (Falcon/Albatross) I reckon that that means none of these are actually team-mates, but there could be one elim among them that eh hoped to either clear with a lynch on one of the others, or had hoped to implicate if the elim among them died. He then went on to try to get falcon lynched. I'll do a reread of that entire segment later, but seen in isolation, it makes me feel a bit better about falcon. There's a bunch of stuff about me in this one, which as usual I'll leave for others to figure out. More interesting is their insistence that Weasel shouldn't be considered cleared. Though I agree with the reasoning, I think if octopus and weasel where team-mates, octopus would have been more likely to just let the mistake be made, so this makes me trust weasel a bit more as well. That's it for now. there where a couple of other interesting posts, but only because in hindsight they gave some interesting views on Lion and Rhino. When next I find some time, I'll take another look at the entire rhino lynch, and then place a vote.
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I know, sorry, should have used more pas tense there I mostly mentioned them because they where the first example to pop into my head.
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He gets attacked for it because of the way he brought it up. Some people stated their suspicion and then turned it into a vote. Others decided to go elsewhere. He specifically stated his suspicion for me, but then held off on voting, waiting to see what happened. That reads, to me at least, as if he was waiting to see whether the vote would actually take off before committing, which reads ellimy to em at least I think he would. Lion had been quite overwhelmingly lynched the previous cycle, and no big new info had been created to suggest that same lynch might not happen again, so getting in early would have earned him some village credit, especially if he considered the lynch to be very likely. Rhino also already got some suspicion the cycle before that (notably from albatross and vulture), so he could have decided that either the credit from the bus, or the distancing would have been worth it. The reason I think Lion is an important lynch right now though is because there's a group of players declaring rhino cleared for, imho not strong enough reasons, and who consider any further suspicion or Lion actively suspicious (see some of the reasoning for the gecko lynch). There's also a number of players (me and gecko at the least, I'd have to check who else) that consider him to still be a valid lynch candidate. Resolving lion's alignment one way or another will get us information. If he's an elim, then there are a number of obvious suspects among those that have been defending him and declaring him cleared, while if he flips village the C2 lynch is more resolved, and the possibility of elims voting Lion there to ensure Rhino didn't get int trouble can be properly considered.
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6 votes with 17 players is... not much. I get that we're in a bit of an information drought, but remaining quiet won't do anything to fix that. Also, I'd really like to see Lion lynched or dusted right now, just for future reference in case I'm not around to push this wagon myself next cycle. Quite a few people based their case against Gecko on their suspicion of Lion, and I can't help but wonder whether there might be another motive behind people discouraging that suspicion. *** "So, this next place was really odd." Merinira explained to one of her compatriots in one of the common dining halls. "Get this, there was this really large room, up on the third tier, near the outside wall. And it was filled with these long trenches containing soil. You know, the stuff that covers the ground in Shinovar." She suspected thate xplanationw asn't necessary for her conversation partner to get what she was describing as there was a noticeable brightening in colors around, them, suggesting that they definitely where not a Roshar native. Still, no reason to not keep the act up. "Anyway, this soil must have lain there undisturbed for millennia, which makes it a really valuable resource for learning more about Urithiru. And get this, in parts of this soil where axe-hound pawprints! They where really nice and clear, but these too must have been there from back in the day, as I'm certain no one has visited that chamber before me."
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There are some downsides, namely in giving elims 'confirmed villagers' to shoot at. Until someone flips, there's also no real guarantees of how true a scan is. I think it's better to keep village scan results to yourself unless the villager is threatened by a lynch, or until we've likely reached a 'critical mass' of scans (1-2 more cycles, I think) that the scans added together might allow for the game to be solved on the spot.
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I'm doing a quick update on my reads. This won't be anywhere near as expansive as I did two cycles back (I'll probably do another extended reads list next cycle if I'ms till allive). First of all, I'm reading Magenta Albatross as soft-cleared village, for their taking down of Rhino. I'm reading crocodile as village purely on tone, as I discussed at length earlier today. I'm also village reading vulture, mostly based on our PM, and if I can get PM's back I think I can move them to soft-cleared status once I corroborate some of their claims. I'm slightly reading meerkat as village because of their stated suspicion of Rhino, but its far less solid than my read on Albatross because they never got the chance to show whether their suspicion was genuine before the point was made moot. After that, Falcon, Scorpion and Octopus are all active and contributing, but they're all kinda in the category where I won't really trust them until they catch an elim, because there's a handful off players(off which I consider myself to be one) that are very good at appearing 'active, analyzing and solving the game' while also being elims, and the easiest way to differentiate one from they other is to see if they actually succeed at catching any elims. I don't want to lynch any of them right now as none have done anything to make me suspicious, but I'm not really comfortable village-reading them right now. After that, there's the 'meh' category. These people have spoken up enough that they can't really be considered inactive, but they haven't said and done enough for me to get a read on them. This category is populated by mint heron and onyx flamingo. Before I get to my suspicions, sage kangaroo, coral swan, sunburst toucan and axolotl haven't spoken enough to allow for any sort of categorization and are either borderline inactive, or have just not said anything game related. Falcon already pointed out why that could be suspicious, but I think there is a noteworthy difference between 'suspicious by default' and 'suspicious because of things said and done', so I'm putting them in a separate category. With that out of the way, let's get to my suspicions. I already called out indigo weasel's hedging statement N1. Since then, he has made 6 posts, 5 of which didn't really contain much game related at all. This seems to me like someone trying to keep up the appearance of activity without actually saying anything. I'm suspicious of Lion for their same hedging around me, as they where getting in a position to either vote on me or not, depending on whether the lynch on me took off. I'm also not convinced that Rhino's vote cleared him, as that vote only occurred after Lion had already been at the receiving end of one big lynch train, so it wasn't unreasonable to expect another one to form, so any elim wanting to bus could have decided to get on early. I'm somewhat agreeing with falcons read on Gecko as well, though I disagree that their vote on Lion was suspicious. I'm fine with lynching any of the above three, but my preference goes to either Lion or Gecko, because those lynches could earn usa bit more info. If we lynch gecko and he flips elim, falcon and Lion are pretty much cleared. If we lynch Lion and he flips elim it throws some serious suspicion on all those that declared him cleared because of Rhino's vote, while making those still suspicious of him and willing to act on that look more village. On the other hand, if we lynch Gecko and he flips village, we don't really learn all that much. If Lion flips village, it gives some more perspective on his lynch D2, specifically whether Lion could have been chosen as an alternative to a prospective rhino lynch by the elims. Because I think the lion lynch will be more informative irrespective of how Lion flips, I'm voting on him now, but I'm willing to change to either weasel or Gecko if the Lion lynch doesn't work out.
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Just to make sure I don't confuse anyone, I'm not actually claiming to have been a dustbringer last cycle. Regarding crocodile, I still see too many ways he could have been an elim to consider them in any way cleared by his claimed role and action, but I've learned enough from our discussion to not want to lynch them unless new evidence comes up (as I said, the tone and style of their defense is village, even if I disagree with the content). I'll be spending some more time analyzing tomorrow to find a new target for my vote, but for now I need some rest.
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That's an interesting one, potentially. @Fifth Scholar, if multiple people submit the same kill, would they all get told they where successful? would only one, and if so, which one? That having been said, it still doesn't prove much, because you're asking me to trust the contents of your GM PM, and depending on what the answer is to my above question, it could prove nothing at all even if I where 100% certain you speak the truth. edit: a quick note, btw, that you should be careful about building any argument on the contents of your GM PM, as you're not supposed to share that in any way. I'm leaving the question above, because there's actually some interesting information to be gained if I know what people would generally get told, for future reference when I get dustbringer, but this is one part of the argument we probably shouldn't continue I don't believe an elim dustbringer would kill their team-mate, but I have now pointed out three times why there's no reason for me to believe that you're the dustbringer that killed rhino besides you saying that you were, because if there had been a village dustbringer, they would have killed rhino, so it'd have been a safe gambit to make that claim as it can't be checked that you, specifically, where the one to submit the kill. The only thing that we know for certain is that at least one dustbringer killed rhino. I already pointed out why that wouldn't prove anything, because an elim also has access to the contents of the PM's of all their team-mates Again, the tone of your defense sounds village, but you're not really proving anything. To show you the problem, let's assume, for the moment, that I claim to have also been a dustbringer, and that I submitted a kill against Rhino. Can you disprove that?
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Right, but would you have done so if you literally weren't posting in the thread for some reason, even as an elim? I can see this reasoning for scorpion and toucan, but nopt for kangaroo and lion. I didn't say you where an elim and the dustbringer that killed rhino (those are pretty exclusive, I agree), just that, afaik, there's no way to confirm you where the one to put in the dustbringer kill that killed rhino short of everyone claiming their role and action from the last cycle, and I'm not certain that's a good idea (especially because, if you're village, an elim could claim to have also submitted a dustbringer kill against Rhino to discredit your defense). Nor is there any way for me to check the PM issue easily, and the information about someone being a dustbringer could have just as easily been shared in a PM with another elim and then passed along in the doc. That having been said, your tone in your defense is pretty village. If you were an elim, then all the issues I'm bringing up are things you'd have already considered, and you'd be defending yourself against those, rather than bringing up your role and action again, both of which are uncheckable. I'm not saying that an uncheckable defense is village, but that an elim would be more aware off how flimsy their defense was, and would be trying to shift to something more solid. So, because of that, Crocodile for now.
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It's a bit hard to prove though. Maybe someone confirmed in a PM to you (or a team-mate) that they where a dustbringer, so you felt it was safe to claim to be one as well as any dustbringer would be targeting Rhino. Maybe you just gambled on there being a dustbringer after your comment started gathering suspicion (a fairly safe gamble given the amount of villagers left). edit: Just to make it clear, I'm not 100% sold on a crocodile lynch yet, and will be doing some further analysis later in the cycle. Crocodile, out off curiosity though, why do you lean village those that didn't vote on Rhino? @Sage Kangaroo and @Opal Lion didn't post at all during that cycle, for example.
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We all appreciate your effort Elbereth! Also, we had 5 edgedancers last cycle, and none this one. I guess RNG gives and takes. Anyway, I've done a reread of Falcon as I mentioned in the night cycle. There isn't much in there that makes me suspicious, and a lot that makes me want to read them as village. In the first category there's only really their soft-defense of Zebra by trying to encourage a different lynch (but I consider that to also be very reasonable to do as a village as that lynch was, despite its outcome, a bit BS), though it should be noted that they didn't mention Rhino at all before their role got revealed, though I don't know if that actually means something. I really want to read them as village because they're active and continually encourage activity in others as well, but there's a few players that would do that regardless of alignment. All this means is that I have to adjust my read back to unsure on them, though I don't want to lynch them any time soon. Also, I just realized I haven't weighed in on the crocodile issue yet. I can see Crocodile saying what they did as both a villager and an elim, but I'm leaning slightly more toward elim given how Rhino's lynch went down. A villager could have made the comment to get a more productive lynch, while an elim could have made the comment to stall out the village for another cycle, thinking they could get away with it because there's village reasoning for the comment as well (in fact, their insistence that the comment would be 'suicide' for an elim actually makes me lean more elim on them, because I don't agree that that has to be the case, but framing it as such makes for a decent defence). In addition to Crocodile, I'd say I wouldn't mind a lynch on Lion either, as I'm still suspicious of them, and don't think Rhino's move clears them. There's also the quieter players, like @Mint Heron, @Sage Kangaroo and @Coral Swan, but none of those lynches would be particularly interesting if they flip village (and due to activity there's no reason to believe they'd flip elim), so I think its better to leave them to the dustbringers if they don't become more active. Though if you people wish to become more active, but don't know how, sharing a read or two is always appreciated. I think I'm going to put a vote on crocodile.
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Fair enough I know that the forum software can sometimes be a bit stubborn when it has decided it wants a quote-box somewhere in a certain way XD
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@Elbereth, I think those edgedancer messages got mucked up a bit, as I don't think one of them correctly predicted the player list?
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That's two in a row now. I really hope we've got a couple of dustbringers to finish off plum, because I'm not looking forward to another lynch like that.
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I've done a reread of Rhino's posts before he got outed, and here are some observations. Here he speculates that either Tuatara or Albatross are elims because of the vote manipulation around the D1 lynch. I reckon we can safely assume both are villagers. Especially as one is dead and the other one was the one to scan rhino... I promise, I have some more insightful insights in a bit (I hope, I'm typing this as I go). A couple of things of note. Rhino's really hedgy on Falcon, which bothers me a bit. Elim hedginess generally occurs when they think a team-mate has messed up somewhere (a villager messing up gets jumped on, but if a team-mate makes a mistake you don't want to be the one to cause the lynch, but be ready to bus), when they think someone has done something to get them soft-cleared, but realize not everyone agrees (if there's a chance to lynch someone that should have been confirmed village, they want to be ready to swing that way instead), or when they're lynching a villager (they want to avoid looking suspicious when they mislynch). Falcon might be the first type, though I'm having trouble seeing falcon being an elim. When I have the time I'll need to reread them. They also show the same hedginess around me and Toucan, but I'll leave it to others to determiner what that means. Also, Rhino once again expresses solid suspicion of Albatross, which makes em further lean village on them. In this post Rhino speculates whether there's only 2 elims left. I think we can consider that to be misdirection. Rhino also talks a bunch about me, but I'll once again leave it to others to determine what that means. Lastly, there's Rhino's first post of today (I think we can safely disregard everything after that as smoke, mirrors, misdirection and trollish fun), in which they start by going after Lion. I don't believe that this clears Lion myself. He echoes arguments made before by, among others, me so he might just have been getting a headstart on a bus he considers extremely likely. It doesn't condemn Lion in anyway either, but I'm not clearing Lion solely on that post by Rhino.
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Well, that makes things rather easy for the lynch, doesn't it Rhino
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I've done a quick reread of the previous day, mostly focusing on Lion. He didn't post after his wagon took the lead, so it is conceivable that he didn't notice and therefore didn't claim. I still don't really like the hedging, but at least there's no evidence to consider the lack of an elsecaller claim as suspicious*. Towards the end of D2 and N2 some of the quieter players started speaking up more as well, so hope that continues. I'll probably to a reread of their posts towards the 2nd half of this day to see if I can form some proper reads there. edit: and before I forget: a happy new year to everyone. *if he had been around, I would have considered it suspicious, because a failed lynch does not help the village in any way, and depending on the exact village-to-elim ratio might have the same effect as a mislynch.
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