Mint Heron

@A Jo in the Bush / @The Unknown Medallion What's happening to Lion and Cham btw? Are they getting filter-killed or replaced?

Hmm. Very very odd. E!Seeker, E!Rioter, E!Kandra 2 x V!MB, 2 x V!Lurcher, 1 x V!CS? Not role-exeing at this juncture, but something doesn't quite add up. Rhino to start. Acknowledge Beagle's points, this is strictly vote-based. EDIT: Did Ele shoot Axl N1 then?

Yeah basically I thought opportunism was more likely. Not seen E!Weasel for reals, DK if E!Weasel has the capacity to make a push that aggressive (maybe?) but still think he's V and I didn't buy the conspiracy hypothesis. One guy for a CS flip is a big ask. I agree with Gecko there's probably opportunist Elims on Ocho which kind of points to someone in <Toucan, Zebra> with <Ele> as a side. EoD firmly rules out Flam for me, I respect Weasel but still have him V, need to relook Zebra's reads, and Axl looks V to me off D1 voting. Ele is a side because it's a bit odd to me that Ele votes Ocho off D1, then has a pretty non-sequitur quote of Gecko in which he mentions forgetting about the CS claim (but... Gecko didn't bring it up?) And then unvotes. IDK in that reflexively to me it's the thing I'd expect the Elims to have been DEFCON 2 about. That should really have motivated Ele's vote, he wasn't challenged and just kind of moved off? I don't super feel like I wanna V read this guy because he's stuck in perma D1 catchup and I'd like him to just be contemporary (guess it semi goes for me too.) But then he kind of blatantly goes back onto Octo so yeah. EDIT: I guess I'm just thinking Elims tend to be deliberate about their posts and votes. There's a kind of unguardedness about going "yeah ocho" and then "oh damn I forgot ocho CS" like I feel an Elim would just have known and E!Ele doesn't just unvote like this? It's 38 mins between Ele's posts though which erodes some of the sense it's genuine. Just odd.

I'm primarily referring to Ocho's Elim conspiracy hypothesis as I was replying to Gecko on it. My sense is Ocho was PMing a bunch of players with it because Gecko referenced it and I received the PM as well. In that world one Elim has to fakeclaim or rile people against Ocho in PMs - that's the person who is going to be catching flak the moment Ocho dies because everyone they PMed goes "wait a damn minute didn't you say/imply you were v!CS?" Saved from ninja by Rhino: Ok. Report continues to drag on so I am forcing myself to excavate a chunk of time otherwise it won't happen. From Jo's update here: An hour shy of the 36-hour mark. While Ig definitely subsequently removed that vote, I slightly don't know if I see Ig also choosing to camp with Meerkat on the same train on a fellow Elim. Certainly, he wouldn't know that Weasel would eventually end up with Kanga. For that reason, I'd probably put Meerkat in a null+ tier. (There's a thing about Croc's post that makes me hesitate about Meerkat, but well.) Side-comment is that I think the comfort of Elims on all lead trains and in general lack of D1 urgency and tempo apart from my screaming bloody murder over DF makes me just feel that the lead trains D1 are Village. Said before, but we see more dispersion now, especially with Iguana moving off Kanga. Own credences version: (This is purely off voting/actions and a special exception for Ocho, which is why Dingo and Zebra for instance aren't coloured in.) D1 EoD: Note again: Iguana choosing to move off Kanga and camp on Ocho suggests complacency/comfort with the votestate. Given Mauve was also MIA near EoD and parked on Axl, this likely indicates V!Axl. D2 EoD: Positive risk profile but voting Ig here a good look for Dingo/Alb, though I need to look closer at the vote dynamics. I think with Ocho looking V, the push onto Ocho makes more sense to me. ...Yeah ok sorry I do not have the time to dissect D2 rn. If I live, I live and do it later, if not, whatever. Best I can do at present.

Ok. May not have the time since this deadline thing is dragging out so let's commit to at least a brief credence update: Moderate Village: Beagle, Dragonfly, Gecko, Axl Weak Village: Flam, Dingo, Weasel (I would say this is the tier and above you never shoot.) Null+: Toucan, Zebra, Tross Null: Lion, Cham (Also don't kill these guys, they either get replaced or filter killed) Should Have Opinion But Ain't Got Nothing: Meerkat Null-: Ele, Rhino There's probably a world where Meerkat leaving no impression in my memory is meaningful but I don't have the energy to process. Between Ele and Rhino, I lean Rhino largely on D2 EoD grounds, but respect if people who've paid more attention/had more time/energy can correct me on this one because yeah.

Misexed a Villager.

Honestly? Some of it is the night exe debate, which is something that's been tried and historically just doesn't do very much. The idea I'm proposing is not new and a number of CSes have turned their kill into a secondary exe before. It's just that people are generally tired af and don't wanna do it at night. I initially considered suggesting it as the pragmatic way of dealing with the Ocho debate but also was too damned tired/deadline stress and FUDed to wanna deal with it. The appeal is that the CS explicitly gets something to go off, and that it puts pressure on the Elims at Night, because if they're named as a popular kill target, the pressure mounts unless they have a Lurcher. But that being said, once you agree to the idea no one is dying, there is no pressure and therefore no point. (Similar to an exe - no exe isn't the end of the world but if you start out agreeing it's gonna be a no exe, then nothing gets done because everyone knows nothing that happens that Turn will affect anyone's wincon.) But also never tell me the odds man, we just exed two Elims in a row and Ocho took down a third >:) (Watch me find out tomorrow we MLed or something )

They should be hitting the PH clock soon. If they're not replaced, they'll be filter-killed so at a stage like this I always wanna say they're kind of self-resolving for the moment. Do you believe the entire train is clean or an "at most one Elim" kind of scenario? I can see either but IDK I have a strong read on Albatross, that lean was weak af. Ocho asked people to PM them with kill suggestions. I don't think that's wise because it means Ocho ends up having to sift through all the lobbying. Either way, it's Ocho's role - Ocho makes the kill decision, ideally through a Village consensus kill pool. But we have just come off a day where at least four players are convinced Ocho is Evil and where Weasel (I do think he is Village btw) has generated enough FUD to create uncertainty around Ocho. Say Ocho does take a suggestion and flips a Villager tomorrow. Pretend it's the new Village Seeker. We wanna know who suggested it, how Ocho arrived at that decision. Either Ocho says they shoot that person at night, in which case we kind of just gotta trust Ocho to do it, or we functionally get a thunderdome, which is Ocho's word versus that player's word. I agree it's not a great trade for the Elims at likely current numbers but it still sucks and is messy. I want us to do it publicly - treat it like a vote, so all lobbying should be done to fellow Villagers and to Ocho. Ocho still picks from the pool. That way we can all see who is campaigning for what, who is trying to ask for what, and with more flips in the future, there's things to go back to analyse. This also places less of an analysis burden on one (1) Ocho, since everyone can see what's happening. It allows us to track evolution in views too because it's the difference between relying on Ocho to notice that someone seems to have had a very opportunistic switch of views compared to it being there for everyone to see, which will help in solving. Truth to be told, we are probably with enough of a numbers advantage it doesn't matter, but I also played a game where the Village had the game more or less won down to the last two Elims and then lost to a variety of bad reasons including vanity play, people not using their roles, and so on, so I kinda never want to be complacent - if we can avoid that kind of messy situation and farm out the analysis work, why not just do it? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Even if a target is protected, we now know there is a protecc where it shouldn't be, and we know it's likely unfriendly. We also know that target can die tomorrow night because Lurchers can't double-protect anymore. Anyway no guarantees we get PMs tomorrow so.

It does assume Iggy chose to fight for it but I think that's a reasonable assumption. I also would not totally ignore the assumption there are more kandra. One CS and 2-3 Lurchers on the OG immortality+overspill rules is very broken. Sure, Jo changed the rules, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Elim team is skewed to kill amd scavenge roles either. Just not enough info. (To be clear I'm thinking aloud.) It's hard to think of the balance dynamics because an Elim team that kills the CS and harvests the CS not only removes the Village PR but also gains it. Tldr; idk off-the-cuff. Would like people making kill votes to Ocho to do it like a day vote (red bold) and in thread please. I want us to avoid a world Ocho has to thunderdome someone + this can be analysed. ...Yeah ok double painkillers it is man this crem don't do jack

Yeah I got a feeling given Iggy's role they were trying to harvest Ocho. Edit: Flamingo voting Iggy to make it a 5/5 tie + that convo with Iggy... I think they're unpaired. Just the interaction with Flam not being aware Iggy already self-pres voted feels very natural rather than fabricated. (At EoD.) My apologies Flam I've come around to a v!Flam world.

Uh. Iggy flipped Kandra bruv.... I mean. I have and I'm still genuinely shocked at this accuracy lmao

Fair. Toucan voting on Ocho is curious to me, still looks opportunistic. But Iggers willing to vote Toucan def suggests alignment less likely. (I guess the worlds this fails are ones where Toucan has a role they value less.) Am reminded Rhino defended Ig earlier I think. Need to look at it. Yeah. Ideally I just wanna decide how I feel about him. But also deadline. I snuck over while waiting for painkillers to work.

You, Toucan, Iggy. Ig's obviously just E but I'm trying to figure what this says about Toucan. I am enough of a pragmatist that I'd rather we put kill suggestions in the thread and let you pick so we can openly see who is trying to influence you especially if they are asking for choices that turn out to be bad

Do we feel it's a E/E/V or E/V/V situation?

Wtf.

Saffron Iguana????

Ig or no ig? Am I karking things up more? @Oxblood Beagle / @Taupe Gecko

You've stated you've made up your mind on me and aren't open to revising. That's your prerogative. I am going nevertheless to point out why all of these are wrong so you can continue to ignore me It'll just be on me for allowing myself to get baited into a useless and unconstructive argument. Except that I was not saying don't clear them. I was saying it was not clear to me whether it was something that should be read positively (helpful) or negatively (low efforting.) If I meant "don't clear" I would've said don't clear. Then, sure: saying I find the bolded good is a valence improvement, but the fact I mention Kanga's opening indicates I continue to have doubts because of the opening, because clearly the opening continued to carry weight with me despite a second post. "And great hedging" - ok, so you expect me, a player who just entered the game, given this was my second post, to form a solid read on players with zero doubts based on... what, 3 pages of activity before that? Come off it. Ok, and what was the votestate then? Majority on Dragonfly, high thread complacency, likelihood a pivot hits Axl due to those two being the lead trains. Why the f does E!me fing care about a fing 3-vote Kanga train when Weasel is one guy who never votestumps and Kanga is not in the lead? Yeah, because ccing is an acceptable tactic and I'd envisioned we might have complications if a Lurcher tried to Lurch Octo at Night so regardless we were always going to need to settle it in thread. Good tunnel. Bookmark this; hope you feel proud of yourself after I flip (I know it won't be today, but I'm sure I'll die eventually, all men are mortal!)

@The Unknown Medallion u got a vc. i got a decision to make before i actually shut this damn browser and go back to deadline Edited to add: You read Rhino's EoD as trying to form a CW on Octo but not getting there in time? Edited to add 2: God helps those who help themselves ig. Jebiga then. Sunburst Toucan, the tie is someone else's problem to go break, I just cannot anymore. @The Unknown Medallion / @A Jo in the Bush in case missed because vote added in edit but I kinda doubt it's gonna be an issue.

Literally nothing to defend myself against other than "Croc v!read me" and you v!read me D1 so presumably at some point your PoE shifted ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Like ok bud that's a Croc problem not a me problem, take it up with him. If you think picking up on DF's Lurcher claim, v!leaning DF, and then screaming bloody murder and consistantly brigading the thread on the issue because I didn't want people to sleepwalk into D1ing a v!Lurcher again is Elim behaviour then I don't really know what I can do for you at this point bruh ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Easier for E!me to take one look at Weasel's and Flamingo's complete disinterest in DF's Lurcher claim and just let the Village sleepwalk into that one. (If you think DF is E or that Axl is E then I can't really help you anymore, but I'd point out the train complacency there and Croc's willingness to park on Axl at those large train sizes and not return suggests otherwise for Axl, and DF claiming the Beagle save and DF's opener and willingness to actually do analysis rather than hide behind the echo gimmick all carry credit with me.) Ah yes, Heron, notorious Kanga defender: Post #2 in D1 thread: Heron isn't sure how to read Kanga. Heron continues to express mixed opinions of Kanga. Heron decides Kanga is activity farming and doesn't like it. (For context when I said "can be low effort", that's what I had concerns about: posting a vc is a simple way to appear engaged but do nothing constructive, and by that point in the game, I'd kind of felt Kanga had gone way further into farming territory which informed why I was ok suggesting a Kanga CW.) Heron, notorious Kanga fan. Heron: very much a Kanga bro. Ironically, also consistent with Heron's very first issue with Kanga and subsequent accusations of thread farming, given Croc's v!read of Kanga was based off...posting vc. Also, wrt slowing thread down, take a look at these: Melon Dingo: Distrusts proposed swing thinking something is sus. Melon Dingo: Also doesn't understand why Heron might also be paranoid at EoD about Gecko calling for a tie to try to get a Rioter to kill DF. I feel like there's an inconsistency there where Dingo supposedly has fog-of-war but doesn't seem to understand/think that someone else should also have fog-of-war: up to that point, why should I trust Gecko's motives, or literally anyone else on at EoD, especially since I was explicit on the fact I didn't think a EoD tie was in and of itself valuable? Dingo's inability to grok this fog-of-war low key makes me wonder, because that should be the most relatable frame of mind for a Villager. I don't gotta trust their motives for a stable train, I do gotta question their motives if they are proposing a switch because the volatility can lead to a lot of unproductive results, e.g. the infamous Lion-Dragonfly-Vulture dance from an ancient AN where Dragonfly, Lion, and Vulture kept cross-voting despite trying to converge on a train because they were last minute hopping and screaming and this resulted in the Elim being saved and the Villager dying. If Gecko had stated he was looking for a 4/4/3 config I would've probably just paranoided through the roof. Anyway is way more effort than I wanted to put in. I'll scan the thread, try to put in a useful vote, and then I'm done here. I really keep giving this game more time/energy than I can afford to at present and it's on me for doing so. I trust the Villagers here will keep us from doing something too stupid wrt the exe because I ain't got the bandwidth or energy to repeat the Dragonfly screaming again from D1. Not gonna address the Zebra point except to note that "this guy is being very loud to distract from his teammates" is a Take in a Tyrian game with a Seeker and Elims usually are a lot more concerned about drawing unfriendly Seeker attention because of the power of Tyrian Seekers, so I think it's reasonable to squint at it but also say that Zebra looks V for what is, on my part, a pretty silly thing "I kind of recognise what Zebra is doing and those players who do it have usually been V." If you need productive things from me, go see the N1 longpost because that at least came from a Heron with some time and energy to do analysis so I trust that more than current service-degraded Heron.

ed1t: Since I don't know if I will be back substantively until the paper is turned in: If we don't roleclear, between Octo and Weasel, going off their D1s and reactions (for Octo this is most reactions), I prefer to exe Octo. No real competition given Weasel's being third vote on Kanga and Octo's early game evidential issues. I PMed Octo to suggest getting in touch with Lurchers early and the one thing I found curious is that Octo wasn't really interested in doing so and kind of did the "eh whatever but I hope they Lurch me" because I kind of feel you should be interested enough in securing protection (and this goes for either alignment actually.) Also true of being afraid of the exe. That being said, Octo was also a bit sus of me which usually goes some way with me because I feel like Elims trying to pocket Villagers don't like to dial up the sus, that runs the risk of putting people off. Some of it boils down to assessments of play level, but I also am not sure Octo's sus was significant enough I'd really count it as a point for Octo (it could be read as a joke too.) But regardless of Weasel's actual alignment, if Octo flips v!CS, I am going to be actively mad with myself for once more allowing us to be FUDed into doing something like this on D2 of a Tyrian game, which is probably some new record. (If Octo flips e!CS I'm just going to shrug and say "Ok then" because I'd much rather we get an Elim kill streak going.) @Taupe Gecko: Wrt the PM conspiracy, kind of, kind of not. The thing about an Elim conspiracy trying to get Octo killed is... How does it work. Ok, Octo dies and flips V!CS. People who got PMed to vote Octo or approached by someone who claimed V!CS automatically go "hey this mfer tried to do me" and then we vote them the next day. Doesn't end well. Sure there's some level of chaos since the Elims will probably counteraccuse, but that's a two-person PoE isn't it? That's not actually bad for us if 3 Elims are left. The other thing is. Suppose the Elims have at least one kandra. (IDK, just thinking aloud.) If that kandra tried for Seeker last night and didn't get it, they now know that there is a village kandra outside of them which has the Seeker template, meaning they can freely collect (unless there is another kandra) the CS template. (This is the world I can kind of believe they would be ok with it. Not sure.) If that kandra tried for Seeker and did get it, they do not know if there is a village kandra who can freely collect the CS template. They don't know who that player is, or how that player will act with the CS templates. Moreover, each kandra that dies can be harvested in turn by another kandra. The CS and Seeker templates could remain in the game for longer than expected. Just... from the Elim POV, if there's a kandra available to try to harvest the CS template, I can see the value in the "Elim conspiracy" hypothesis but you sacrifice at least one teammate to do it. (Doesn't mean there isn't an adjacent world where the Elims back a train hoping to harvest the template btw.) If there isn't, this just costs you at least one Elim for no actual gain. And keep in mind this game has an actions economy - not only did they sacrifice a teammate but they have to give up actions because the new CS has to keep killing and so does the other Spiked. It's just...such a weird world? IDK if I buy the conspiracy. But I do not necessarily trust all the votes on the train I'm voting with, oy vey.

That's because Dingo's claim is not actually framed as a claim... Like if this was a genuine claim or anyone remotely believed this was a genuine claim, they would have questions for Dingo about it. Obviously, Dingo's tone has led us to just shrug and move on.

E2dt: Sorry. Countertrain is just any train numerically in position to displace the lead train. Thus, the Weasel train on D1 wasn't a CW, the Axl train was. E3dt: Slightly squinting at Gecko for the qn given I feel he's seen it before but: PoE = process of elimination. We use it to refer to both the actual reasoning process and the resulting suspect pool, i.e. "Iguana is in PoE."

*so Sorry this should read: "going off on the assumption there is at least one Villager in them." It's mostly just Weasel and Octo I think are Village atm though I also agree with Ele I didn't like Octo's D1 and low-key wanna give Ele some V cred for this take. Rhino is idk and I need to have the time to relook Iguana but dislike Iguana's D1. CW = countertrain/counterwagon. The point is that knowing the alignment of the main CWs is very helpful for vote analysis because knowing DF/Axl/Kanga was V/E/E changes how we analyse it from a V/V/E world. It tells us about where the PoEs are and what the likely Elik disposition was. For this reason sometimes people like to just flip the more suspicious CW. I used to be like that but Aman convinced me a couple years ago that we don't need to do that. Edit: One of the two shots came from a MB let's put it that way.

DF is saying killing Axl as an E!CS clears the CW. Good catch DF. As an E!CS you never wanna do it because Village is sussing Axl and going into D2 with Axl's alignment unsure and the possibility of people revisiting it is good. Conversely it is true E!CS needs to make a conceivable pro-Village shot but e.g. Iguana, Octo, Rhino, Weasel just going off yesterday on the assumption these are Villagers are pro-Village shots. There's no especial reason to do Axl. Which...fair point. I guess they could be afraid of the Lurch and gambling on Axl not self-protecting but IDK. I don't think there is an E!CS but this is weak instinct because Jo announced Lurchers no longer can do the same target twice in a row. In this game Lurchers die to overspill - CS + Spiked kill = Lurcher dead. In an E!CS world one need never claim, just double-tap or Lurcher dodge. But I've been burned too many times by Tyrian assumptions so I am refusing to take this to the bank until we see more data. In a high kandra % game, this might also be a reason to rescind the targeting as Villagers (just numerical odds) acquire soft immortality one after another. Edit: I think that DF is suggesting Octo could be MB which is fair but it's what Octo claimed so it's what we gotta roll with for now. Immaterial anyway because MB in this ruleset cannot reroll a metal until all eight are done.