Mint Heron

Catching up between work but I asked the GM and y'all should know a kandra flips as the role they acquired. Just keep that in mind when looking at the distro. RE: Weasel's point, I disagree but think Weasel is channelling off-site meta in that I've seen it being played with the v!CS claiming before in SE. Arguably Octo was claim-happy but it's not something I necessarily find out of parameters for this site. Edited to add: It's interesting the GMs changed the rules because Tyrian Lurchers were not immortal even in the earliest version of this particular ruleset. I understand why but... I find it very suggestive. Anyway sorry. I do feel bad for not RPing as much and low key feel I'm a major part of the pivot off RPing especially in D1 but zero brain cells left for it. Just gotta finish the deadline. It is probably a bit arrogant and foolish to just kinda...camp on Heron N1's credences but I don't got the time to sit down and do focused analysis rather than one-off things until Sat so I just gotta live with it ig. E2DT: ok but if ur actually convinced the villager possibility is one, then why are u joining the train? u don't seem very committed to this vote? E3DT: Forgot this. Have you considered that the simple reason for a Beagle shot might in fact be: A. Lurcher immortality worries (assumes the Elims weren't aware Lurchers aren't actually immortal), and B. Beagle being the person who looked the most unambiguously Village off the EoD? Back to work, if I show up before IDK like 3 hours or something someone yell at me thanks. I'm better these days but earlier this cycle was...unwise.

FWIW if you claim v!CS (which I saw you did), it is quite likely they have a Lurcher, or a Thug. They can technically have a team without either, e.g. a bunch of Mistborn (I have seen it in comps before, I don't recall if it was a test comp or an actual comp that was run) but most 'safe' GMs (granted this is TUM and Jo so lol) will probably give them one just in case. However, the e!Lurcher (in this landscape) has no reason to claim, and if I were them and knew that two v!Lurchers had claimed, I would absolutely just lie my arse off and claim to be anything but a Lurcher in the hopes the Village does something foolish into the late game and tries to role-exe in the two known Lurchers. (...Spanreed incident.) I also just wanted to state I think there are other strong arguments for v!Beagle besides Beagle being targeted last night: Beagle is the one who asked for the Kanga pivot. When Gecko proposed the tie/switch plan, he actually suggested Weasel (whom I v!lean and I think there's some argument for v!Weasel off Weasel hardpushing Kanga during D1.) Beagle asked for the Kanga pivot and backed it up by voting Kanga - that's a very strange thing to do when v!Axl was going to get exed (unless you think e!Axl, which I no longer buy FWIW) and v!DF was still endangered. Why pick Kanga over Gecko's proposal of Weasel? For that matter, why steer the exe to an Elim at all when the consensus initially was to just leave the trains as they were with Axl dying? In terms of causality, Beagle is probably the most directly connected to Kanga getting exed. I wouldn't revise read unless it's lategame, Beagle is still alive, and we've hit enough bad exes that it's clear we've falsely cleared someone. ...Connects to your deepwolf point. There might or might not be one; it depends on the Elim team's comp and their comfort with that niche. I think Croc for instance was going for a thread controller play, which can be deepwolf-adjacent though I take Beagle's point they're not very distancey by nature. Deepwolf world requires them to do pretty non-Elim things, so I am not too concerned with paranoia-hunting for them rn because finding a deepwolf always means shooting in the people who look pretty Villagery first and that's a perverse incentive because those are the people we should be Village crediting. Killing too many of the people who look very Village to find a deepwolf also means you enter an endgame with people who look pretty sus which is a bad endgame landscape to be playing in. Deepwolf still has teammates - when those teammates are dead, we'll have more info and space to go deepwolf hunting if the game hasn't ended. By that point, the deepwolf should also have done some more sus things, which makes them easier to find. Not saying we can't but especially in a game where I don't know the player comp, I do want to remind people about PoE prioritisation (I'll blame some very spicy experiences on this forum lol) - some reads are robust enough that while they could be deepwolves, you revise only into lategame, some reads are weak enough they should be revised earlier. Deepwolf hunting is part of this. (tldr; don't paranoia exe Beagle, in most worlds Beagle is just dead by endgame, if Beagle somehow isn't and is more sus by then, then start worrying.)

YES. DEFINITELY YES. Not first assumption, but it has happened. Some people still have PTSD from AG8 where it happened. This. This is how we worked out the CS was actually evil after kinda temp clearing them for pretty bad reasons including being a Coinshot. I think she'd hit like the third or fourth Thug in the game, there were two Lurchers we knew of (actually there had been three), and we realised that everything she'd done looked pretty objectively Evil...if you ignored the fact she was a Coinshot so we decided the distro didn't preclude E!CS, said "YOLO" and exed her and she flipped E!CS and we had a collective heart attack. I need to tell you about AG2 at some point ...I think it was AG2, it could very well have been AG1.

In a normal game, depends on the GM but it is common for this kind of ruleset (Tyrian) to not be role-madness. ...However, this is a Tyrian AG. They're notorious for having screwed up rulesets and if you give me any AG# and I remember it, I can probably tell you one (1) screwy thing they did that took the Village by shock. Distro assumptions kill in Tyrian AGs, and things get whack. Edited to add: Tbf I guess the last two were relatively normal...for a Tyrian.

Not good but would say try to avoid it in early to midgame unless there's a specific reason to, e.g. people are trying to work out some night action exchange that could clear a player or not. Commonly, the problem with claiming regular as a regular is that you help the Elims do PoE on the roles to figure out good targets to kill, so you can endanger power roles even if you think your role isn't important. A game I played in before had that happen, with the Elims identifying all Village power roles by...I think N2, and killing the Coinshot (who never claimed) because of it. If you are a Village PR, claiming before Village kills you is a good rule. Yes, Elims may do that too, but generally working out whether this is V or E, whether or not to give the benefit of the doubt is the Village's problem regardless. Village never appreciates being surprised this way. I will add that in lategame in Tyrian, it is worth claiming because the value of this info depreciates by lategame and because Tyrian has an actions economy, i.e. if you provably sent in an action last night, then you didn't put the Elim kill in. As the Elim team # reduces, they're going to badly feel the loss of players like Croc because players like e.g. if they have a Mistborn or Smoker must now choose whether to forgo night actions or not. (This usually works better when Tyrian games have Tineyes, but oh well )

Two. One post saying they were busy, one EoD analysis thing I think suggesting suspicion of Octo. I'm not sure what to make of Rhino having the mental capacity to case at EoD given the vote chaos.

Opal Lion. Edit: Also Pearl Chameleon I think.

omg bruv i'm sorry but also like don't claim going forward man you can't target the same player twice in a row now my bad, I asked before Jo changed the rules!

Unfortunately I would expect every Kandra in the game to have rushed for it, given it's a Seeker. On Village side because, duh, and on the Elim side, to deny the Seeker. Unless the Elims had a high-generation Kandra, I expect them to not have willingly ceded Kanga and even then, since this gives the Village a free Seeker or an additional free Seeker. As an aside, I pulled this: Last post in the day from Croc. Croc AFAICT doesn't show up at EoD. I am willing to believe that Croc doesn't consciously introduce a second teammate into the near-tie, making them a DF CW, even if we know Iguana gets off later (and Croc would've known this.) There's a world Croc actually Rioted, but since Croc wasn't on late into the day, I think Croc would not leave orders since Croc wouldn't know the votestate at that point. I am ok with a v!Axl read at present. @A Jo in the Bush / @The Unknown Medallion Incidentally, what's your ruling for if a Rioter tries to Riot their own vote? Does it still disappear?

Oh cripes yes you're right with the new Jo rule change please don't, they can then target you. Although I will say the fact the rule change exists makes me believe there is not that much KP in this game. If there were, there would be no need to change the rule. Factor that into your plausibility models I think where claims are concerned. I was ribbing you if that wasn't clear bruv I have an idea of a few people, yes. I am trying not to over-base analysis on that as I could be wrong, but I also am letting it guide how much I am willing to respect that a player could be more difficult to evaluate than my immediate analysis assumes, i.e. error bars/margins. Were they on at EoD? If they weren't, that's a simple answer, no? Kanga train had 2 votes, DF and Axl had 5/4 thereabouts.

I could be wrong but Zebra has a pretty unique style of play I think I recognise. It's neither here nor there and not really important, I'm only stating it because it affects how much I am willing to assess that interaction as a V/E one since Zebra was sussing Croc.

Axl? Got it. Wasn't on at EoD I think? Need to confirm. Admit I was not looking at who was online because I was rushing things. Actually I think it increases my v!read on Zebra at the moment. I feel that Zebra and Croc don't really distance like that though I could be wrong. Zebra is absolutely capable of sending a teammate to hell but my instinctive read off the interaction is that it's not really distancey on Croc's end.

What were your Croc suspicions off? Apologies if I missed something. Btw for anyone good at post reading, Croc did a full reads list so there may be something there. Anyway I don't have the time to do everything I'd like to rn so I'm gonna be selective and vote one of my suspicions to get the day rolling. This isn't really being updated at present, I'm running off N1 Heron credences. I promise I will commit to sitting down and looking at more things tomorrow, I'm just triaging rn, got something big due on Friday. Iguana

Flavour can mislead, yeah. We do know there is a MB because PMs have turned on so they got Tin. The fact there is a CS shot on Axl is interesting to me though. It is...logical from a certain POV, and yet I wonder at the same time.

Good work! If someone else took the shot, this is the point you counterclaim btw. Failing which, we V!read Octo and move on in life. Can I ask what drew you to the Croc shot? I think one of the shots could be MB (not sure, unsure if it's worth asking Octo to elaborate here, cat's out of the bag anyway on one POV), but single CS and a few MBs could justify two v!Lurcher landscape. I'm going to assume Axl self-protected (fair) and that Dragonfly protected Beagle. Is this correct, alle? Edited to add: Yes, I'm aware we could say "don't claim and just shoot at night", there is one problem with that.

Still busy so I skimmed and will just triage anything important: @Melon Dingo: So sorry, you stood out to me while the other three people who did it D1 blurred into a meaningless blob in my head or I @ them too RE Lurcher claim: yes but watch for the number of strikes/kills in say the next 3 cycles. A 2-3 Lurcher game is one with an E!CS, or possibly a lot of E!MB, and probably at least one E!Lurcher. I don't think it's run in a sub-20 game but will never recommend a role-exe this early. If by C3 or latest C5 (not sure about the numbers, just fudging) it's clearly the case that there's very little KP in this game, then we need to reconsider a fakeclaim world in one of them. @Indigo Weasel: I know you don't do distro meta so I'm just gonna tell you right now the last 3 Lurcher game we ran was AG8 with a lot of Thugs, and an E!CS. Do with this info as you wish. I would hesitate to form the PoE on a distro basis on the two of them on D2 especially in a game Jo is running due to the BS he pulled with a Lifeless Commander distro but you do you. @Onyx Flamingo: Ok but do you not see the problem with your new response? I pointed out that you had a fairly defensive tic in your response to Alb and your response is to say I want you to lie down and die. It's just... Two people expressing sus of you. I have a gigantic sus list myself and you're one point on it. Why has this translated to wanting you to accept death in your head? I think for instance you could have pointed to other villagery things you did, or just offered some reads/thoughts for the night. (Basically what I did anyway as Dingo also susses me.) Suspicions are not static and everyone is ok revising on you if you seem villagery. In general high defensiveness tends to skew Elim so that level of response cannot really make me improve my read. Axl claiming Lurcher really doesn't mesh with their behaviour btw. It's something I'd relook by say C3 or the C5 mark given more info.

This entire thread continues to be allergic to reading I see I distinctly recall being told I voted without reason yesterday as well, even after I already stated my thought processes. Yesterday it was me pointing repeatedly to Dragonfly having Lurcher claimed, today it is me pointing out I gave no reasoning at the point of vote but explained my vote subsequently because someone asked me: tldr; wanted to create a tie early (...earlier) in the cycle to see where people were going, and between axl and croc, i sussed axl more off voting patterns I didn't move subsequently because, as I was saying in 90% of EoD, I didn't want DF to die, and didn't want to leave enough room for vote manip to kill DF. (I also had some low-key paranoia that Gecko was trying to engineer a CW to save Axl/kill DF which is why I kept asking about the train sizes at EoD so I could cross-check what Gecko had in mind.) I will say I have a weak V lean on Dingo for this read given I'm probably responsible for getting the train off DF, which maybe helps me a little as Dingo's "I was actually there all along" got me to theorise a world in which E!Dingo lurked to see if Kanga could be saved but then demurred given Gecko and I were lurking and mentioning a potential counter-hammer into Kanga. (Weak because I don't feel confident ruling this world out just yet.) Icl this makes me wary of Flamingo tonally. It's giving "this isn't the correct way to find me" response which normally skews E. This was maybe half an hour shy of the 36-hour mark. Kanga had at least 1-3 votes on prior btw, and Ig and Meerkat dipped after voting. It is entirely possible one of them voted to distance and simply never returned. What is definitely the case is at most 2 in <Saffron Ig, Meerkat, Weasel> are Elim, and in that world it is more likely to be Ig and Meerkat than it is to be Weasel and one of the two. (There's actually something interesting there I suppose since Ig calls out Meerkat's reasoning but votes alongside Meerkat - I think Weasel pointed this out as well. Anyway Ig's last post for the cycle has them shifting their vote after this vc: By this point, DF has shifted 36 minutes ago to Axl so Ig is actually seeing a 5/4 train landscape on Axl. Ig's response is to move their vote off Kanga and to park on Octo, which has the effect of decreasing the relative CW sizes. We go from: to: Which numerically is a very safe sidetrain to park on for the rest of the day, and as Dragonfly points out, Ig does acknowledge this since that's what they sus Octo for but also wind up doing: And yeah I se DF clarifies this is what they had in mind, ty DF. I think this is a fair observation btw. Rhino did in fact post thoughts. IDK if E!Rhino has the capacity to case someone else at EoD but Elim freezing at chaotic EoDs is definitely a thing too. I'd like some pressure on Toucan tomorrow btw. Toucan showing up to do just this is weird to me - I'm not fully convinced that Alb night voting here isn't performative (sorry Alb) but this is doubly so for Toucan. I get the sense I'm meant to think Toucan is this disconnected from the thread rather than Toucan actually being this disconnected. Given the OG votestate everyone was working off (depends on whether the Elims realised there were six on Kanga at EoD I guess), I'm crack theorising a world where one of the Elims ran off Gecko's votestate count and said "Hey guys we need a CW" and Toucan sees it in the doc and just votes without catching up. (The weirdness to me is - how does a player who dropped a vote and vanished also suddenly return having formed a strong opinion to vote on one of the largest EoD trains? Why does Axl look suspicious here? This reads to me like Toucan is actually following the thread or following instructions from someone. This can be explained by a doc going kayana about Kanga suddenly being endangered and considering Axl as a CW.) As an aside, I find Kanga's EoD vote odd - Kanga doesn't self-pres onto Axl which you think would be the logical CW here. Kanga votes on Weasel. I guess it's entirely possible Kanga was intending to hammer and got scared off by Gecko mentioning a counter-hammer. But I can see a world E!Kanga accepts going over and votes on Weasel to try to implicate V!Axl (I feel that unless Axl is an E!PR that is better than Kanga's, Kanga probably just CWs onto Axl here reasoning that whichever of them dies, the other one gets sweet distancing points.) Though I guess it's also possible Kanga is just very behind on the votestate since Kanga here seems to be responding to Gecko's ping. Side-note: To me, this indicates Gecko and Kanga are unlikely E/E. In an E!Kanga world, the Elim team is most likely acutely aware of votes on their teammates, and Gecko agreeing to actually bus Kanga here instead of just actually engineering the tie is less likely. ( @Ivory Dragonfly - I don't fully agree with the Gecko sus you mentioned so I'm trying to lay out my reasoning here. Not saying Gecko can't be Evil but not near my top suspect.)' Less likely because the main E!Gecko worlds here require Gecko to have just been mistaken about one of the late vote switches (still possible), or for Axl to be a more valuable Elim PR (Coinshot? Mistborn? Ig? IDK. Them being willing to yield a Seeker to potentially any Village Kandra lurking out there is strange to me regardless but this could be a best of a bad lot world.) I just think that given Gecko was willing to instigate a CW that got an Elim dead (via Beagle), unless Axl is some major E!PR, I think that should give Gecko some Village credit. It's true that Gecko wanted a Weasel vote, but Gecko was still willing to do the Kanga CW instead. @A Jo in the Bush / @The Unknown Medallion - Btw, could you put some version of the amended votes into the OP? I'm concerned people might use the wrong EoD votes when doing analysis after I'm too dead to yell at them for doing it; I just think we also need to keep the OG error version somewhere because that's what people might be working with. For similar reasons, I feel like Kanga's willingness to vote on Weasel might be indicative they're not paired (though I independently am weak V!reading Weasel for that Kanga vote at nearly 12 hours left in the cycle regardless.) TLDR; FOR PEOPLE ALLERGIC TO READING: This is a 'if I die tonight' kind of wishlist / semi-readslist because I have things to do and might not be able to finish it: Lean weak V on Weasel for hard Kanga statement and vote on D1. Less likely for Weasel to be distancing given the train sizes at the point they signed off for the night and added an unnecessary third vote to Kanga, also given the hardness of Kanga sus statement. (Note: Weasel isn't really a Village whip by nature so I'm also not holding it against them that they didn't whip votes to Kanga.) Do not hardclear Weasel, but don't para(noia) exe Weasel this fast. Weasel is a helpful player. DF is probably V. I really liked DF's second post. For people who still aren't catching up with what DF said, DF actually stated outright in their second post that they sussed Octo for saying they'd have to guess until they found solid evidence. I immediately sympathised with/had a mindmeld with that position because requiring solid evidence to back a vote is a phrase that tends to come more from an Elim (see also my concerns with Flamingo earlier.) This is part of the reason I was not down with DF sus yesterday and stated as much. DON'T SLEEPWALK INTO A DF PARANOIA EXE, TYRIAN LURCHERS IN THIS GAME ARE NOT IMMORTAL, YES I KNOW ABOUT THE TARGETING RULE. IYKYK. Weak sus on Flamingo. I don't really like this response from Flamingo in terms of PoE not being sufficient evidence - as I said, it's giving very Elim "this isn't the right way to find me." At the same time, I concede Flamingo is correct that they voted on a CW to DF; however, we also don't know if that CW is Village (there are some E!Axl worlds) so Flamingo suggesting this gives them V!credit is weird to me because Flamingo stayed put on the Axl train at 11 minutes to EoD which indicates Flamingo made a conscious decision to remain on a train that also ended up being a CW to Kanga. (I would in fact argue that even in V!Axl worlds, Flamingo's vote would remain fixed: it's more important to Flamingo at that time of EoD that a Villager dies, and Flamingo might be concerned that shifting votes to endanger the v!Lurcher looks worse.) Lean weak V on Zebra. I acknowledge it's a perverse argument, but functionally Zebra had an early pressure test post I liked, and while I don't agree with Zebra's reasoning, I slightly am inclined to believe it emerges from a Villager headspace. Weak sus on Croc. Croc had a positive read/weak defence on Kanga, which I felt probably the polar opposite about. The vc at the time Croc swapped (you can reference this off the Croc post I linked) was 4/3 on DF to Kanga, and Croc voted on Axl, making the trains 4/3/3. I can see a world this is meant to protect Kanga, whom Croc self-admittedly V!reads. Kanga does in fact take a bone that Croc throws to them, which makes me wonder if this is a teammate interaction. Moderate V on Beagle. Think Beagle has been sensible in general and suggesting and being down with introducing Kanga as a CW does a lot for them in my eyes. Mild to moderate V on Gecko. I think there's a world E!Gecko suggested a CW to try to get votes off Axl and it's true Gecko called for a Weasel tie instead. In that world, Gecko is fine rolling the dice. However, Gecko was unaware of the actual Kanga votes, and was willing to vote on the Kanga CW. We can debate how much that's an Elim feeling forced by the Village, but given that Gecko fundamentally did something that led to a pro-Village outcome, and I think an E!Gecko/E!Kanga world is one where Kanga doesn't die (Gecko doesn't tell me to be aware of a hammer and just asks Kanga to belatedly hammer Axl, or just gives me the wrong train sizes), I would say "don't hardclear" (generally a very good principle in a Tyrian game regardless, particularly an AG ) but that it's perverse not to give Village credit for doing Villagery things. This can be a 'revise later if necessary' type of read and anyway that's how tiered PoE works regardless. Lean v. weak V on Dingo, maybe null. I think that pushing me here feels more Villagery in that IDK if an Elim decides to do this after EoD yesterday (some would, tbf.) At the same time, Dingo's self-admitted EoD lurking doesn't make me feel comfortable either, because of the potential "Elim froze at chaotic EoD" energy. (I guess you could say E!Dingo doesn't admit this, I'm not sure.) Weak sus on Albatross. I wish I had a reason for this but I don't, which is ironic given we somewhat agree on Flamingo. I'll try to figure out why, I just don't...feel great about Alb for whatever reason. [Later Heron: I think it might be that I feel Alb is V!reading me a bit too easily/quickly off what was more or less moving thread engagement. I'm not sure.] Weak sus on Iguana. I agree with DF on Iguana - in short, Iguana logs off for the night and moves vote off Kanga and onto a convenient sidetrain, and lampshades they're sussing Octo for the same thing as they're doing. There's a kind of self-consciousness there I'm not sure I like the more I think about it and this fundamentally ends up protecting Kanga. Weak sus on Toucan. I feel this vote from Toucan doesn't make sense. A player who has vanished from the game with only two very early D1 posts should not be updated enough on the game to have an opinion on an EoD train, much less to feel comfortable about voting on one of the largest EoD trains. This to me suggests that Toucan is either following the game more than they're letting on (i.e. lurking) or that Toucan was prompted to by panicking teammates and was out of touch enough not to realise it. (Though tbh given the vote is 4.5 hours after EoD, it just feels performative or Village cred fishing to me too.) Neutral to slight sus on Ele. Ele hedging on DF [1][2] but ultimately pushing Meerkat isn't something I feel comfortable with - there's slight "Elim not wanting to incriminate self by committing to position on lead train about to flip Village" energy to it given the time Ele gave views on DF. Ele's argument that an Elim doesn't like to attract attention is...correct for certain Elims, and I give Ele some V!credit for it, but Ele also voted Meerkat for being too willing to change votes, just in a way that didn't grab attention. Null on Opal Lion. Don't think they've shown up. Null to slight sus on Plum Rhino. I take DF's point wrt potential Elim freeze response in Rhino; however, I am not sure E!Rhino has the capacity to case Octo at EoD. Might very well be true but I'm /shrug on this for now. Rhino mentioned being busy on D1 so what I want to see is more alignment-indicative content from Rhino going into D2. I will say that I agree with Rhino's thought process in their second post - I don't like the solid evidence phrasing either as I indicated earlier, and I feel like Octo thinking that DF is making a defensive vote switch at SoD - this is a p1 post - is minimally uncharitable and reads a bit "you treat me badly I treat you badly." Weak sus on Octo. I agree with DF - Octo's statement on solid evidence and just guessing at SoD reads Elim-coded to me, because it comes from a very defensive mindset from the get-go. I had wondered if I was being too uncharitable to Octo given that Octo's sus on DF for changing their vote for what was clearly a response to Octo rather than a naked vote, but Kanga also making the same assertion made me more neutral about it. In light of Kanga flipping E, I cannot give that benefit of the doubt anymore. As a side-note, Kanga does state trust of Octo. Given Kanga's thread confidence, I can see this being E/E. Octo being confident enough to say EoD "clears Dragonfly" (which Gecko picks up on) is making me wonder if that's an E!slip btw. I have difficulty seeing this confidence level coming from a player who starts the game being worried about solid evidence. Octo then repeatedly asking for "our top suspects" is odd to me - why the urgency? Why do you "need to know" who the top suspects are and "who we think the saboteurs are most likely to kill"? Shouldn't you be doing your own reads, given you also had a view on DF anyway, indicating you're at least partly caught up on the thread? In summation: Beagle / DF Gecko / Weasel Zebra Dingo Lion Rhino / Alb / Ele Iguana / Octo / Toucan / Croc / Flamingo I have a lot more suspicions than is normal for me but I guess sometimes life's just like that. Not ordered within tiers, this is just my way of talking about who I'd pressure first tomorrow, and who I think should be only gotten to in later revisions, e.g. don't revise Beagle until late-game, Beagle should probably be dead before that regardless. Anyway goodnight all, I think I don't have time for RP after all, sorry about that but I gotta do stuff. Heron logging off. EDITED TO ADD: FML forgot Axl. Current Axl view is: null, maybe a tiny bit of sus. I think pretty much any E!Gecko world requires E!Axl btw. I'd like an answer ( @Violet Axolotl ) on whether Axl knew that DF had claimed Lurcher and just Axl's whole mindset about that self-pres vote. There's a lot of attention in their posts to how they are being perceived. I just think that the train size on Axl before the switch also indicates the Elims were comfortable with this which should point to V!Axl...unless Gecko is E. Anyway I was struggling back and forth with whether Axl's response to DF is V or E, I might lean V after all in terms of Axl still being willing to self-pres onto DF but that depends on whether Axl saw the claim so /shrug. I don't like this. It feels very performative and reminiscent of Kanga's EoD - you would've been told by the GMs if you were dead so why would you be scared of EoD and why are you so invested in staying alive? Beagle / DF Gecko / Weasel Zebra Dingo Lion / Axl Rhino / Alb / Ele Iguana / Octo / Toucan / Croc / Flamingo

Sorry. Gonna nap on this one and come back. Migraine is hitting hard. Thanks for your patience DF, am not sure I am getting it but can ask when head not killing me. I'll try to RP and leave some vote analysis or thoughts before rollover

Trying to parse this, lmk if I'm getting it: Iguana's reasoning for Axl should lead them to vote Axl but instead they went to Scarlet Ocho for what Ig self-admits to be the same thing they're doing, sitting on an easy vote?

I'm curious too. I recall someone dropping a late EoD on them, and in particular @Ivory Dragonfly felt Ig sus I think? DF, any chance you can maybe re-explain it again? IDK if you need more substantive posts for it. (DO NOT RECOMMEND READING THIS THIS IS JUST REFERENCE FOR ANYONE WHO WANTS TO PUZZLE THROUGH THIS BECAUSE I DON'T GET IT.) Given the post DF is referencing, I...think DF is maybe accusing Ig of claiming E!something? E!Kandra? IDK, I am struggling with the post in question. I don't really understand the thought process (would probably not recommend breaking too much brain on it compared to looking at the votes.)

I'm inclined to lean a very wary and weak V on Weasel for their analysis btw: (I did not mention it in thread, but Weasel's case analysis did persuade me that I might not have been tripping in my Kanga suspicions/wariness.) This is actually why I slightly trusted Weasel to SAN check me about how everyone was responding to the DF claim. Also Weasel's vote created this votestate: Weasel increased the Kanga train. In a V!DF world, Weasel can go on DF, or presumably on Ele or Meerkat (assuming at least one V in them.) In an Axl/DF V/V world, Weasel likely goes onto another V train because this just brings Kanga into contention with time in the cycle and two top trains/possible VM. It's weak because I respect Weasel's play. Sorry Weasel, it happens

Fantastic. So basically playa kanga went 1v1 with the Tiebreaker The idea there is a version of this game where people randomly come back to life and people randomly die is oddly...terrifying. anyway ok so: no vm - 3E world unlikely IMO (probably at least one V in DF and Axl due to thread dynamics after/with DF's claim - would also probably argue DF is V in most worlds with a slight asterisk given the thread control requirement) lack of vm therefore more likely because E!vm weren't online (there's an E/E world where they cbf because Axl and Kanga are both E so have a pref to let it rand, you could argue they would try to VM there to mislead us making us think it's a V/E pair. we can't fully read alignment here, but I'd say minimally Dingo, Gecko, myself, Beagle, and DF not e!vm. bit more obvious in some cases than others, but.)

fwiw my assumption for this would be a couple of Mistborn (normal at these sizes.) there's another world where e.g. elim seeker is itself meant to produce e!fog of war (or just be an outright troll distro though honestly they can do a public claim scam at some point it is tricky but there are some lines that would work, i'd argue ag3 vicinity), or yet another where it provides opportunities for kandra (...wtf) wars tldr; intuitively weird on the face of it but early game so i don't want to say too much about distro going off just one flip and the lack of PMs atm. anyway. this meme don't got to make sense to anyone just allow me it. i will be srs once i get sleep and i will rp more. edit: Do we feel the Axl train is clean at those sizes btw? I'm trying to work out what we might think wrt comp off these and what Elim disposition would be. There's a certain argument Es tend to really hate EoDs when Villagers are being chaotic and wild and I think it's possible we might be able to read a bit more into the uh, chain of events that unfolded after this.

Nah bruv we gotta keep our eyes on the ball and keep pressing on. Good opener, need to make sure we play a solid mid to endgame as well Very good D1 result, much stuff to analyse, thank you for calling for the tie, thank you @Oxblood Beagle for the Kanga, IDK how I feel about Axl now and need to go back, will note that I was actually going to and fro on Axl in terms of Axl's response though it was uh, a lot of rando thought vomit into thread in the last hour so I think people scrolled past, I just felt that Axl should be readable in some way from that response and was a bit frustrated with myself I didn't have a strong read on that basis. ... But holy hell man what a D1 wtf was this even

Vc says 5 so I wanna confirm is it a tie-breaker vote or something. I just want us to know if it involves vm or not because if it does, the complexion of the EoD actually changes here depending on your analysis of the trains.