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Fuchsia Ostrich

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Everything posted by Fuchsia Ostrich

  1. Fuchsia Ostrich
    (Yes, I know that this post is a whole lot longer than you're used to from me, but this is what happens when I actually get a decent chunk of free time.) I think this recent vote surge on Axolotl could be an elim plot: there's not really any meat behind it--even less than the reasoning I gave--just that Axolotl isn't sharing secrets and they've been wrong. Well, if you're really looking to lynch someone for being wrong, look no further than Dragonfly, so I'm suspicious of those using that reasoning and then voting Axolotl. @Mauve Crocodile @Amethyst Scorpion I urge you to reconsider your votes, or at least explain why it is better to vote Axolotl than Dragonfly if they've both been equally wrong. Right now I'm reading heavily village on Mint Heron. They're obviously putting in the time to give us the best chance possible, and their large post today in particular is telling that they're invested in the game and interested in getting analysis out there. Later on I'm even going to vote along with Heron. I'm seeing a lot of discussion about Zebra but I can't even recall a single post of theirs, so I must not have found them too notable. Now we get to Mouse. I've very conflicted here: all of the evidence that I need is there for a lynch on them, but at the same time why would the elims be so blatantly obvious with the manipulation? (I say the elims because I think a village manipulator would have claimed by now.) If I were an elim, I wouldn't drop manipulation like that unless I was sure that there wouldn't be another opportunity to lynch my teammate. I'm not seeing any signs of a team voting as a block--other than maybe this Axolotl lynch--so that's one point in favor of the "Mouse was framed" theory. I believe it was LG25 that the elims got access to a bunch of vote manipulation, and used it to save villagers from the lynch in order to frame them. It worked then, so why not now? That's what's making me hesitant to lynch Mouse. Another point in Mouse's favor is that the elim kill tells us that Falcon was a villager, and I doubt an elim would support a kill that made them less credible. I hate to flip-flop on Mouse this late in the game, but I think he was framed, both by the vote manipulation and then by the elim kill. It's just too convenient of a case against him. I'm going to go along with Heron and vote on Scorpion for a few reasons: 1. Lynches slide off of Scorpion like he's covered in grease. Yes, I know I've been guilty for some of it, voting on him for his playstyle and then changing my vote to more logical suspicions, but maybe it's time that I follow this gut read through. 2. As Heron pointed out, Scorpion doesn't look very involved in the game. I know that's an elim tell for some players, because it came up in LG36 (I think?? It was a Mistborn game where the last 2 elims were Meta and Sart). Elims sometimes lose interest in the game because they already know the game state, feel little pressure to contribute, and have a team that'll keep working towards their win con without them. 3. That vote on Axolotl. As I said above, reasons for an Axolotl lynch are tenuous at best with Dragonfly still alive. 4. Scorpion's self-preservation votes have a strange habit of falling on villagers. Now that's a good cover for an elim who's aroused suspicion: just announce "I know I'm village but I don't know about them" and all of a sudden you have free license to vote on basically anybody. Then again, a lot of votes are falling on nobody but villagers... 5. IIRC Scorpion made an accusation of Dragonfly that was unpopular, but they ended up getting a few trust reads out of it because an elim couldn't have been that risky, could they? Thing is, Scorpion is looking more and more like an aggressive player like I am. I know I've been taken by that fallacy in the past, assuming that an elim wouldn't accuse a trusted villager. It's bitten me in the butt in at least one past game. Tomorrow I'm up early and off to uni with a big test in two days, so don't expect too much more out of me. Good luck, ladies and gents!
  2. Fuchsia Ostrich
    Hael is one of the very old players, and he was lying about who he was and how experienced he is.
  3. Fuchsia Ostrich
    @Sapphire Elephant I expressed suspicion of Mouse a cycle or two ago, so for me to have bandwagoned on him to save a teammate requires me to have had a premonition about today's voting state. The more likely (and true) explanation is that I voted with my bad gut read and to lynch someone other than Scorpion or Vulture. Also, all of you really experienced players have completely lost me. I'll stick with my vote and let you guys sort it out. Axolotl, are you claiming to be Alv?
  4. Fuchsia Ostrich
    I have no idea what Falcon is doing, but it sounds ominous. Have they done this before? (I'm a PH) @Magenta Albatross You missed me on your reads list. Dangit my mobile tags aren't working. Hey, fixed it. @Mint Heron I'm on mobile so I'm not sure how to quote the post, but a cycle or two I noted that one of Mouse's posts had struck me as off. Later I revisited it to find out what, but I couldn't find what it was other then a reads list that I thought was more aimed to build village cred than to catch elims.
  5. Fuchsia Ostrich
    I'm sticking by my good gut read on Vulture. Their posts do seem very thought out, but they haven't aroused any suspicion at all from me because they're backed by sound logic. I'm going to put my vote on Mouse. While Vulture appears to be on the up and up, Mouse has been deceptive about, at minimum, their experience level. While I'm packing a good gut read on Vulture, Mouse's posts have already set off my gut alarm once--although admittedly I couldn't definitively nail down the cause. Also, even though lying can be used by the village, it's more commonly an elim tactic. The only players that I could picture lying while village are the more chaotic ones, a small chunk of the player base. Up until this point I haven't brought up Scorpion, so to avoid being accused of the black/white fallacy I'll bring them up next. I read Scorpiom as a villager who's more than slightly put out. You'd think an elim would be hiding in the shadows, not accusing the more trusted players. This is a reversal on my part from when I voted on him, motivated by Scorpion sticking to their guns with the paranoia of the trusted. Had they attempted to back off when things turned ugly I would have smelled blood, but they stood their ground. While I'm far from completely trusting Scorpion, and they're my second lynch choice right now, I'd trust them more than Mouse.
  6. Fuchsia Ostrich
    @Ivory Dragonfly I know the feeling. My first game I was super active, although instead of picking up good reads I kept attracting bad gut reads. It seems like every game I've played since then I've been busier and therefore less active. Though the way you use some of that terminology makes me wonder if you're not actually a more experienced player bluffing. Looking at the reads on me, there's a lot of neutral reads. While that isn't bad, it isn't really good either. I'd like to get some analysis in to up those reads on me, but in less than 10 minutes I need to leave for work. I think the Lightweavers are out to counter a Skybreaker on the field. It could be an elim Skybreaker for false-claiming and scanning, or the Skybreaker could be the usual village scanner but one who is meant to be countered by the village itself, like Toucan proposed. I have a good gut read on Vulture, bad on Scorp but that might be because I don't like his playstyle, and neutral slightly negative on Croc. I don't like how Croc blames pressure to vote, because an elim could use that as an easy cover for putting a vote on a bandwagon on a villager.
  7. Fuchsia Ostrich
    I know I'm only semi-active; I'm usually among the actives, but I made it clear to Orlok when I joined the PH list that I wouldn't set any activity records. Also, do we know if there are secret roles? Like role/alignment manipulation?
  8. Fuchsia Ostrich
    Before I get started on Mouse I just remembered that Toucan asked for a summary of the evidence I said was gathered against Weasel: And then on to Mouse. I mentioned last time that it was his last post that gave me a funky gut read; it was actually the one here with all of his reads. I guess what I don't like about it is that he reads village on basically everyone other than the bandwagon target. Because in my experience reads are often the same both directions (i.e. if X trusts Y, Y likely also trusts X), and so he could be looking to gain trust by not calling anyone out. Thing is, it doesn't take a master logician to point out that it could just be him being truthful about a bunch of actual village reads, so it looks like my initial negative gut read on their post was unjustified.
  9. Fuchsia Ostrich
    After Sage Kangaroo's last comment I think I know their real username. Same with Axolotl and Scorpion. It's going to be fun to see if I'm right about them. I'll deliver my promised analysis of Mouse after I exercise and go cash my paycheck.
  10. Fuchsia Ostrich
    Firstly, I echo Heron: wot in conversation happened to PM safety? (But from past games, I'm one to talk...) Secondly, although GMs have a lot of freedom when it comes to roles, some things basically have to be done. An elim team without vote manip I could see, but since we had a vigilante were I the GM I definitely would have given the elims a way to defend themselves. Thirdly, Weasel. If we don't lynch them our lynch yesterday was completely wasted, but if we do lynch them then it'll only be somewhat wasted. Weasel has a lot of evidence this game against them, so I'm willing to use this cycle's lynch to finish them off. Fourthly, that said, we don't want to lose this day to a massive bandwagon-killing discussion. Fifthly, I got a funky feeling when I read over Mouse's last post. I don't know what caused it, but at minimum it's worth a second look when I have time.
  11. Fuchsia Ostrich
    For a second after seeing the grey I got excited thinking that we had exposed a secret alignment, but alas it was not to be so. One thing though: you'd think a village!Weasel would have warned us that he had an extra life so we'd have a chance to not waste the lynch. I know village!myself would have if I were them. It may just be my standard tunneling routine, but wasting the lynch on purpose sounds like an elim move.
  12. Fuchsia Ostrich
    Just putting in my two cents before turnover: --Activity doesn't correlate to alignment, in my experience. So I wouldn't let Weasel off just for that. Thing is, weasel hasn't said anything that I can remember since I joined up, so I don't have a read of my own and I don't want to senselessly bandwagon. --Toucan is reading village to me but I'm easily pocketed early-game so I'm not inclined to do more other than mount the occasional soft defense. If we have hard evidence, lynch away, but I want to keep them around until we do. TL;DR: Keeping my vote on Scorpion because of bad reads from recent posts.
  13. Fuchsia Ostrich
    @Amber Vulture I do believe there are elims among the inactives, but I put my vote on an active because right now I can't differentiate one inactive from another or know which ones are suspicious. Vocal players I can at least get a read on. Also, at least a couple of times it's been mentioned that Ostrich 1.0 claimed to have game notes. Either they were lying, or they took them with them wherever they went, because I can't find them. @Ivory Dragonfly What do you mean by the evidence seeming carefully arranged? I started the voting on Albatross by citing Toucan's reasoning, then Toucan came on and cited their own reasoning. I don't know for certain if Toucan is good or evil, but their logic made sense so I voted along with it. I do think I'll move my vote, however, because Scorpion said something that makes me suspicious, more so than on Albatross. Scorpion said "why don't y'all think about why you're trusting Ivory so much". This reminds me of something from LG34: the last cycles, Meta's defense was that Len had no reason to be trusted. The thing with this accusation, then and now, is it requires no evidence. I read Scorpion's post as them wanting to sow suspicion and put a retaliatory vote on Ivory with no good reasoning.
  14. Fuchsia Ostrich
    Wait, I just made a connection that I should have made much earlier. Flamingo pointed out that Penguin suspected Albatross before Penguin died, and Toucan also suspects Albatross. Before I hadn't realized that these were the same bird. I'm going to put a vote down on Albatross because the Penguin kill seems to have been in defense of them, and even before the kill they had done a suspicious vote move. If Albatross is lynched and does flip evil, I'm going to be heavily suspicious of Chamelion. Personally, I think the Weasel lynch is a decent choice, but I want to propose another option.
  15. Fuchsia Ostrich
    So I take it that Weasel has been acting weaselly--how in character. I'm actually going to make a soft defense of Toucan from Chamelion. Last cycle they made an accusation of Albatross for switching suspicions that sounded to me like it had logic behind it, so I'm reading slightly village on them. I do think we have an elim among the very-actives, but it's not worth it to start lynching based on activity. The more lies they have to say, the higher chance we catch them doing it.
  16. Fuchsia Ostrich
    The elims killed Penguin. Not too surprising, but not good for us either. Doing a bit of meta-reasoning, with 30 people in the game I expect 5 elims. Maybe 6 if most of them are vanillas, but I think it's more likely that they have 5 with vote manipulation. Another thing I'm noticing is that we're not doing so well in the activity department. Without names it's hard to tell who's a habitual less-active and who isn't, which makes this tougher.
  17. Fuchsia Ostrich
    OK then Axolotl, suspicion lifted. We conveyed the same thought but in different ways. For me it's about the same being lynched village and lynched elim. For both of them I'm concerned that it'll cause my side to lose and I try my best to swing the lynch away from me. I'm really daunted by the backlog: 20+ pages of posts, many of them done by the dead. I don't think I'm going to be able to get through those, no matter how long I have for analysis. But I will start gathering reads from now on.
  18. Fuchsia Ostrich
    @Violet Axolotl I'm not getting that impression from Heron's post. I've seen players in past games propose to be scrutinized or even scanned in order to get cleared. While an elim could certainly bluff it, I haven't seen any contribution crusade comments this cycle, and so they would have a better chance of going unsuspected had they just feigned inactivity. An elim would have no motivation to post something possibly suspicious when they had not been suspected at all, but a villager would want to encourage contribution and analysis. While it's hardly concrete evidence, I'm going to put my vote on Axolotl for attempting to start a bandwagon. @everyone Has Axolotl been this aggressive earlier this game? Edit: it's night, isn't it? Well then, discount my vote.
  19. Fuchsia Ostrich
    This is Fuchsia Ostrich 2.0 reporting in. I regret to inform you of the inactivity death of Fuchsia Ostrich 1.0 but I am glad to join in the party. Looking over the game state we don't appear to be doing so well. I don't know exactly who Ostrich 1.0 is, but I have an assortment of "what do you think about the game?" PMs so I think it may have been Straw. I have initial village reads on Ivory Dragonfly from the thread and maybe just a bit of one on Chartreuse Penguin from PMs, but it's not much and based on them appearing to be focused more on enjoyment than strategy. When I have more time I'll attempt some in-depth analysis.
  20. Fuchsia Ostrich
    It was because I was bored and felt like sticking a vote out there. It was mainly a gut read that I had gotten. I do have thoughts, but they're on my computer which I won't have access to for a couple of hours. I'll post them then
  21. Fuchsia Ostrich
    Oh yeah, definitely not a pinch hitter I'm far from the best one to give a summary so I summon @Oxblood Beagle and @Ivory Dragonfly to maybe give some
  22. Fuchsia Ostrich
    I ended up removing my vote on axolotl. Please correct the vote tally. Unless a vote manipulator put it back
  23. Fuchsia Ostrich
    axolotl if you truly wish to stitch with a pinch hitter
  24. Fuchsia Ostrich
    Having finally finished catching up, Axolotl is suspicious, though my notes aren't the best
  25. Fuchsia Ostrich
    I'm reading the backlog, but I'll post my thoughts in a couple of hours. Sorry for temporarily vanishing
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