Fifth Scholar

I’ll join this as Lardre, a minor lighteyed lady definitely unaffiliated with any secret organisations.

All right. I’m tempted to go along with Striker and vote Mint immediately, especially for the blatant ingratitude here: I’ve saved you two cycles in a row from lynches you’d have otherwise died to, intentionally or unintentionally, and you believe I’m evil? That’s an incredibly odd perspective coming from a village!Mint. I’m rather of the mind that you’re looking for an easy mislynch on me, given that I’m already under fire for...voting my convictions C3? I’m not really sure where the suspicion is coming from. I’ve yet to see any argument against me not grounded in “what if Fifth/X are Elims together, then Fifth’s actions can be interpreted as defending/saving X, so Fifth is evil”? Perhaps those of you using this logic should be pursuing X instead to see if my defence or protection of them has any implications as to my actual alignment before you lynch me on unproven assumptions. The point stands, however, that if you’re village, a vote on me makes a lot less sense than one on Striker or Lotus. On the other hand, I have no idea why elim!Mint would do this either. So I suppose this post just confuses the storms out of me. Do you have anything beyond this, Striker? While I agree Mint has dodged the lynch twice under less-than-ideal circumstances which were arguably preventable (for instance, Mist PMing me last cycle that he was planning to hammer his vote would have resulted in Mint’s death, as I wouldn’t have felt compelled to hammer myself), this post hardly provides reasons why Mint is suspicious in the first place. And I’d like your thoughts on some other players; it’s too easy for people to get by at this stage in the game by just stating their opinions on one person and leaving it at that, and I’m sure you have thoughts on more people than just Mint. I’m...seriously starting to suspect at least one of the people pushing a five-person elim team and emphasising that every villager *must* vote a certain way is actually part of a four-person eliminator team trying to create needless bandwagoning. Five Elims has gone unquestioned the entire game, of course, but it’s still an assumption. (4/22)≈0.182 and (5/22)≈.227. I’m not sure how true this is anymore, but the rule of thumb is usually 15-25% of players are Eliminators, with 20% as the default. From these percentages, I’d say both a four-person and five-person team are equally likely, with a four-person team actually being closer to 20%, and I’m not sure why the latter is being universally assumed and even insisted upon, unless a smaller eliminator team is pushing it to try to get villagers to commit to a bandwagon in order to spare them the trouble of having to hammer a cycle early. See my comments to Mist above. Why do you suspect me, other than hypotheticals you’re considering with other people you also don’t know the alignment of? If you’re not evil, which I’m beginning to suspect, I believe you’re at the very least tunnelling, or at least you haven’t laid out enough of your reasoning for me to understand why I’m being placed in your crossbeams so consistently. I think the collective failure of the village to focus on anyone outside of myself, Mint and Striker (and Straw to some extent, I suppose) for the last three cycles has hurt analysis significantly, which this section above highlights quite nicely. I understand why you don’t have a plan for a world in which none of our major suspicions turn out to be evil, but we should, and the mostly lost and confused state of the thread right now makes me feel like I’ve been pointed onto the wrong people entirely. I want to seriously re-evaluate Striker, and take a close look at some people who haven’t gotten any discussion at all recently (Vapor, you to some extent, Ashbringer), but for now my vote is going on Devotary. I’d like her to explain her suspicion of me in greater detail at the very least, laying aside my concerns that she’s simply using her usual pattern of last-minute votes in order to balance lynches and generate paranoia while staying neatly under the radar.

Wait storm it Mint Mist Edit: Probably too late

Frozen Mint Mist If Striker’s count is right it’s currently tied 4/4/4 and I’m not leaving my death to random chance. Sorry Mist.

At the time it probably would have been for the reasons I stated in my reads posts D2, which was mainly from tone at that point since they hadn’t posted much when I analysed them. C3 I don’t think much had changed—while I still didn’t like their reasons for voting Shade, their thought process seemed genuinely village. My 1-2-3 was Ventyl-Mint-Striker. Points I agree with on Vapor, ash and Straw, but the rest of this I pretty much disagree with. I had Pyro as the stronger of two elim reads C1 when I was posting on low time, and my vote narrowed the gap between him and Silber, so my suspicion of Pyro C2 by no means came out of nowhere. I didn’t really “keep the attention” on you and Ventyl either, considering the number of votes Striker received after my post, and the fact that any of the voters on the Ventyl wagon (or yours) could have condemned him by the cycle’s close. But if you’re wondering why I defended Striker and are taking suspicion of me from that, wouldn’t it be more prudent to lynch him first and see if he’s evil before you go after me for it? I understand a village!Mint would automatically see Striker as the elim in the threesome from last cycle, but that assumes village!Mint, an assumption I can’t make. As such, because I find this vote poorly reasoned, and because my accumulated suspicion from the past three cycles hasn’t really evaporated upon reread, Frozen Mint. I...forgot why I quoted this. Oh. Now that there’s a switch back to Mint, would you mind joining? I would appreciate not dying, and find her a lot more suspicious than Mist. I don’t think Lotus is being ignored. I’ve certainly brought them up a lot recently, as has Devotary. And they’ve been a good, consistent contributor, so I don’t see where your issue is here. And agreed that there’s probably an elim in the lower-actives, and that Mist is a good starting point (though Vapor is another person worth looking at), but on review I don’t think there’s a reason to let Mint go again when she looks the most legitimately suspicious out of the three lynch targets last cycle. (I will switch to Mist in self-preservation, though, if I have to. Which doesn’t look to be the case for the moment.)

I’m still leaning village on Straw, though this is mostly on the merit of his C1/2 contributions and not anything he’s done or said recently. His silence as of late is a bit perturbing considering his heightened activity in the first few cycles, though the strongest point of suspicion I have against him is that he expressed support of the Ventyl lynch without actually joining it, preferring to keep his vote on Striker; if Straw was evil and knew how Ventyl would flip, he probably wouldn’t want to be seen as part of a last-minute bandwagon on a villager. I think evil!Straw in this situation could be teammates with either of evil!Striker or evil!Mint, as in the former case he could have been trying for a bit of distancing without realising he’d start a wagon on Striker, and in the latter case was part of a concerted push against Mint’s wagon. If he’s teammates with Mint, I’d suspect Lahilt as well. Getting away from hypotheticals, though, I’d mostly just like to see him post his thoughts on the current situation, as he’s been much quieter recently (which makes sense, given that he’s starting to GM LG67, but still).

Straw posted some reasoning against you. I didn’t really have time to seriously evaluate you last cycle before I was basically the deciding vote on the lynch, so I hung with my initial village impression of you because I wasn’t terribly convinced by what had been given, and because I found Ventyl and Mint a lot more suspicious. My gut has been...not great this game, though, so I hope you won’t take it too personally if I do a full analysis of you along with Mint and Mist in my next post. I’m not—I think it was Randuir/DeTess who said that Elim teams tend to be like dominoes. Getting the first one down is hard, but then once you have the first flip, finding subsequent ones through connections and interactions becomes a lot easier. There’s plenty of games where the village has won after a string of initial mislynches, though this situation is certainly not ideal. You...are correct. It was Vapor who added their vote to Mint; I’m not sure why I confused the two of you, so my apologies. Honestly I’m not sure if your vote off-wagon makes me trust you more or less, but I do appreciate that you didn’t mindlessly add to the leading lynch, and I apologise for falsely claiming you did so. Now I’m a lot more grateful we didn’t decide to lynch you behind your back last cycle. I should not be making posts rushed on time, clearly. And a fair point—I didn’t mean to argue that elim kills were useless as a point of information, merely that trying to draw generalisations from a single kill as a principle point of analysis was unwise; I’ll admit to overstating my case there a bit. All our discussion seems to happen around this time. This is simply when I’m usually awake/my brain is actually working/I have free time, which is why I’m not normally around until a few hours before rollover. I am not trying to commandeer any lynches, and agree that input from more people would be wonderful. It’s just a tendency that vocal players who do analysis tend to get followed, as happened with your vote on Mint last cycle; I don’t think you were trying to “commandeer” that lynch, but people followed it because there were few other good targets and your analysis seemed sensible. I do agree that there is no concrete reason to trust either Straw or myself until we lead a lynch on an Elim, though, and right now we’ve both been doing a poor job of that Definitely agreed that the filter is producing bandwagons. Don’t know if that’s good or bad, but judging by the Ventyl avalanche last cycle, probably bad. And an interesting point about Mint’s suspicions ending up dead, though I’m not sure how far I’d read into that: coincidence, elim!Mint trying to clear herself hoping somebody notices, and an elim team trying to frame Mint by making her jump between suspicions all seem equally valid/likely explanations. As for my suspicion of TW for a Mint vote, I’ve already explained that it was a highly stupid mistake on my part, though it does make me want to look into Vapour a bit more. Agreed on the suspicion and slight frustration with the only-voting population, though to most players’ credit, that population has been significantly reduced since C1. Yeah, I think Shade’s take on your posting style put into words what I’ve been experiencing for years better than I could have. The entire vote train last cycle was weird, and honestly I’m not apologetic about swinging things over to Ventyl; the lynch on Mint had decent reasoning but almost zero explicit opposition in the form of votes, and there was pretty heavy sentiment for a counterlynch which wasn’t going anywhere except Striker, who I trusted at the time. And I wasn’t perturbed necessarily by the speed of the push onto Ventyl, which was natural considering there were a dozen people online and fifteen minutes left in the cycle to make a decision, but rather at who was switching; Gears made some sense, and of course Mint would vote in self-preservation, but Lotus and Eternum jumped on it as well, neither of which I was really expecting. My paranoid concern is that both Mint and Striker are evil, and once my vote was down the Elims took the chance to move the lynch onto Ventyl, but an Eternum/Mint/Lotus team is too far away from...all of my prior reads for me to give that idea terribly much consideration. As for your possible teams, I don’t know why elim!Fifth would try to start a third bandwagon against Ventyl to save an elim!Mint when the Striker lynch was a perfectly valid alternative which was a lot closer to success, dividing the opposition to the Mint lynch, and...okay, I was defending Striker pretty explicitly last round, but since I don’t believe him to be evil I’m okay with that. I’m a little curious as to what you think I *should* have done, though; had I switched my vote back to Mint, or over to Striker, would that have been better? It was 4/4/4 without my vote, and I kept it on the person I viewed as most suspicious. I’d rather I hadn’t been in a deciding position, but I was, and I made the best choice I could have at the time. I agree, but there’s usually little alternative; scattershot lynch votes sometimes let the Elims get more control over the lynch than rapid bandwagons because smaller numbers can make larger differences in the vote counts. I’m a little confused as to what you’re accusing me of, though; I wasn’t voting chaotically, changing my vote only once, and doing so in accordance with my suspicions on players. And I refrained from a last-minute vote change, keeping my deciding vote on Ventyl instead of shifting it to Mint or Striker (which I arguably should have done, but oh well ). Going to take a closer look at Mint, Mist, Striker, and now Lahilt, and then place my vote.

I just realised my rationale for lynching Ventyl was in the Shard-eaten post and not my summarised version. A very condensed version because I don’t have time to type up a long analysis on mobile: the reasons I provide here for my suspicion last cycle, as well as the post this cycle which seemed to offer little beyond a defence of themselves and a contribution to a bandwagon without much analysis. And that...was a very quick swing. I’m not sure how I feel about that, and am a little tempted to switch back to Mint again. @Devotary of Spontaneity @Lahilt I see you two lurking. What are your thoughts?

I would be fine doing so, but don’t want to get Striker lynched. I’ll go Mint Ventyl and switch back if that ends up putting Striker in the lead. At this point I’m more concerned with not lynching him than with which of my two suspicions I lynch, but the Mint bandwagon is still giving me an odd feeling. Not alignment indicative. Dunno how much support there is but I’ve taken the first step.

I was about to vote on Ventyl after doing a re-skim of the thread and noticing someone else actually had voted for him, but that’s now been retracted and I’m not sure there’s enough support for his lynch to be a viable alternative to Mint. I still don’t buy the arguments against Striker very much. Lotus, do you have a case against TJ, or do you simply not like the Mint lynch? Gears, I’d again rather not lynch Truthwatcher when he said he’d be offline, as it’s not really fair if he can’t defend himself and gets killed by a lynch he didn’t know existed. Edit: Never mind, your post ninja’d mine. I’d be willing to join a Ventyl lynch, or to stay on Mint.

Hmm. I largely agree with this, maybe bumping Truthwatcher up and Striker off; I’d been reading him as village, though I might want to re-evaluate that in light of the recent votes on him. I agree on both counts, but would feel a bit bad about lynching him once he said he’d be offline, and can’t defend himself—that’s happened to me before and it’s never fun. I would likely switch if a Ventyl wagon materialised, and am considering the Striker vote more closely, though as I said before I’d been assuming him as village for most of the game. Truthwatcher was more somebody that I’d like to lynch next cycle, but I wanted my objections aired to see if anyone else agreed. I think it’s important that we don’t switch the lynch just for the sake of switching it, though; if on review I’m still more suspicious of Mint than Striker or Ventyl, I’m keeping my vote where it is, and everyone on Mint currently should do the same.

Exactly my reservations. Okay, here’s the TL;DR of my previous post which got eaten by the site: Mint is definitely suspicious, whether you’re taking TJ’s angle that she was trying to set him up for a mislynch (which I...don’t fully buy, but certainly explains quite a bit if she is evil), or my angle that she’s content to avoid solid commitments with her reads, hedging a lot even with her accusations of Gears and TJ, and ultimately voting outside of these two on Shard of Reading, which I just found odd. For all of the above, I’m perfectly happy to lynch her. However, the lynch itself is really bugging me; first of all, because it’s attracted immediate support from other players I suspect (namely Truthwatcher), and second because while there’s a lot of talk about an alternative, nobody seems to actually want to put one out there besides Ventyl, who I’m also fine with lynching, but so far has zero votes. And third and finally, because we’re lynching yet another active player. There are plenty of people staying on the periphery, dropping in once or twice with largely unexplained votes and then leaving, and we just give them null reads, promise to suspect them more a bit later, and go on with lynching active players because we can always find something incriminating in somebody’s posts if we look hard enough, simply from sheer volume. So in light of that Mint’s vote on Shard doesn’t look entirely unjustified, though I’m still staying on this lynch because I currently have no better options. I would like a Truthwatcher or maybe even a Ventyl lynch. But those just seem...unlikely, or nobody who wants them has actually bothered to speak up. Until somebody besides me does, the Mint lynch is in my estimation still our best option. But I very much wish it wasn’t.

I just lost about an hour’s worth of work (thank you 17th Shard), so in the interest of getting a vote in on time, Frozen Mint, with deep reservation. Reasons to be supplied in an upcoming post which will probably be a shorter rewrite of my previous paragraphs.

While I do trust TJ for the moment, I disagree with this reasoning—elims can and will protect villagers to “pocket” them, as well as to look good if they eventually flip village. Given the widespread condemnation of Pyro, it wouldn’t have been a bad idea for an Elim to defend them, knowing that they would look better once they turned out village. The defence of Pyro certainly reads as genuine, but hardly as alignment-indicative, a point which Ashbringer brought up earlier which I agree with. Give me another minute to catch up with the thread, revise my reads, and then I’ll post and vote. Sadly, I likely won’t have time for my large walls of text this cycle, so expect a few more quotes and questions at most.

11. Eternum: Only a few posts, if I recall, but substantive ones which have advanced the game. Poke votes Vapor and defends poke votes (would you look at that ), but agrees with Devotary and myself that they’re useful as a cheap distancing tactic for elims. Posts a reads list which mirrors my current one to a surprising extent (though I don’t agree with their ideas on Gears or Shade), and begins shifting the wagon from myself to Pyro. Puts a significant amount of pressure on Vapor, especially considering they’re new, but since he’s returning I accept the explanation that he didn’t know about experience levels and wouldn’t have really factored that into his analysis. As it stands, the points that he makes are good in themselves. He does back off appropriately once he realises Vapor’s newness, too, which makes me think it was a genuine misunderstanding rather than an elim trying to start a mislynch. Maintains his vote on Pyro throughout the first cycle, and provides analysis for this which I agree with almost wholeheartedly. This cycle he’s made only the one post condemning Shade, which seems to have been taken up to create a bandwagon. I’ve already detailed why I disagree with the idea of elim!TJ, but to elaborate more, rather than calling Silber an “easy” target as Eternum does, I’d call him a “natural” one for TJ to select, as he probably was the best non-Pyro choice at the time, and TJ didn’t want to lynch Pyro; ergo, he voted Silber. This does look worse if Pyro is evil, of course (and he may well be, which I’ll get to in a second), but the underlying train of thought seems village. I just don’t think an Elim teammate of Pyro’s would be so explicit in their defence of him. Anyway, back to Eternum. Village read, maybe the most solid that I have. Even if I disagree with some of his analysis, it’s consistently well-thought out, and he’s been helpful in creating discussion and putting his opinions out there. I’d like to see something else from him this cycle, though, just to make sure I’m not letting a few good posts from him inform my entire perspective. I’m also curious what he thinks of my defence of Shade. 12. MysticLotus: Drops a random vote on Straw C1, which is...about it in terms of early contribution. Does some nice RP this cycle (I need to start on that) and expresses mild suspicion of Straw for perhaps overstating his opposition to random votes. Makes the point which I agree with that Pyro’s alignment is not necessarily informative of TJ’s and puts a vote on the latter. Null read, perhaps very slightly village for now, mostly because I’d like to see a bit more from her, especially justification for the vote on TJ ( @MysticLotus ), but I’ve appreciated the few points she’s made so far. Mostly wary for the same reason as the other less-actives, namely, that if she’s evil she’ll blend in very easily if we don’t make an effort to garner explanations for these votes. 13. Pyromancer: My strongest elim read. Since going through all his posts would be almost impossible due to sheer volume, I’ll highlight my reasons for suspecting him, most of which have already been mentioned: the weird vote/retraction on my bandwagon which he did during C1, the generally chaotic approach which he’s taken towards responding towards points against him, and the odd lack of traction that both bandwagons have seemed to have against him, on top of a very bad tone/gut read which I’ve had since reading through C1. I am slightly hesitant because some of the people on Pyro right now are those I have elim reads on as well (Truthwatcher and Vapor), but overall I would like a resolution to the discussion around him. Additionally, while I don’t think Pyro’s alignment has significant bearing on Shade’s, this is a good lynch to join for those of you criticising Shade on the basis of his affiliation with Pyro, to see if that claim has any foundation to begin with. 14. Experience: Seems inactive, and hasn’t been on the Shard since the game started. Null read for obvious reasons. @Experience, where are you? 15. Frozen Mint: Jumps on Gears early, which I and several others have already expressed disagreement with. Does make a good point that bandwagons and lynch discussions tend to make for the best analysis. Wants reasoned votes, clarified that she didn’t realise Gears was new (similarly to the Eternum/Vapor situation), and says there aren’t too many good reasons to vote for someone early D1, which is certainly true. Hedges a bit on my bandwagon, pings some inactives, and posts a reads list which seems genuine; I appreciate that they took at least some stance on everyone they mentioned. Tips the wagon away from Pyro and Straw, which is perhaps notable, and helps cement the Silber train. I agree with Eternum that this vote is odd, but can’t really place why. It’s not tone—that’s consistent with the rest of Mint’s posting. I think I’ll just evaluate it as slightly elim and leave it at that. I do like Mint’s first C2 post quite a bit—she makes some good points on a variety of players, though I again disagree with the reasoning against TJ, and think that the Pyro wagon, while I agree with it, is allowing her to remain mostly unnoticed. Her most recent post is setting a few of my alarm bells ringing—I don’t like the broad casting of suspicion she employs, especially on Mat, which looked too preemptively hedgy. On balance, she’s been a decent contributor to discussion, but the lack of a recent firm stance on anyone except TJ and Pyro bothers me, and she’s a good candidate for a more vocal Obligator. Leaning eliminator based on recent behaviour. 16. Ventyl: No posts from C1, which is unfortunate for my analysis. Not really liking either of the posts from C2 either—as Eternum pointed out, his commentary on Xino’s death felt very odd, and the tone of the entire post was just...off, from the explicit claim not to be evil to the weird analysis which broke up elim kills into experience level. As I said before, trying to analyse elim kills isn’t terribly useful until you have a few, so you can start noticing patterns. It’s also worth noting that Elims tend to choose targets whose deaths will misdirect or confuse the village of analysed too closely, another reason not to read too much into one kill. Also don’t like their recent assertion that it doesn’t matter which of TJ and Pyro we kill, especially since I’m pretty convinced of the former’s innocence and the latter’s guilt. Giving them a mild eliminator read which will likely be stronger if TJ and Pyro share alignments. 17. Fifth Scholar: C’est moi. 18. Devotary of Spontaneity: Votes me, trying to get a response on Eliminator poke vote tendencies. Her concerns here seem legitimate, if NAI for Devotary. She later retracts this vote once the bandwagon on me has reached full force, and offers a few thoughts on its development and on the switch to Pyro. Interestingly expresses that she does not believe Pyro is evil, but does not elaborate much on this. At the end of the cycle, breaks the tie for Silberfarben. Normally I would chalk these combined factors up to a reasonably good chance of a Devotary/Pyro team, but unfortunately Devotary tends to behave this way, especially the last-minute voting, regardless of alignment. I will take a closer look at her if Pyro flips evil, though. This cycle, she’s not voted yet, but has pointed out a few of the inconsistencies in the reasoning used to condemn TJ, which I agree with. Overall, a null read—Devotary’s style tends to resist my form of analysis, though she is contributing, which I appreciate. @Devotary of Spontaneity, what are your thoughts on recent developments, particularly on Shade’s bandwagon? And could you vote a little sooner than ten minutes out this cycle? 20. StrikerEZ: Didn’t post C1 as far as I could tell. C2 they posted a reads list which had some good ideas but tended to hedge a lot, though from the sounds of it they were relying heavily on memory. Has recently attacked TJ for their stance on why people should be suspected, which I’m a little conflicted about, as I agree with Striker that voting for people on the grounds that they’re attacking someone you trust is valid, but dislike the absolute assertion that this is “all of what SE is about,” which is overstatement. One of the better votes on the TJ wagon, and based mostly off tone, a slight village read. I’ll need to take a closer look at him later. 21. Lahilt: Votes Mat on gut alone, claiming lack of time to make a longer post. Defends his read, says he hopes to switch it but never does. I like their posts this cycle, though, especially the willingness to draw distinctions between TJ and Pyro’s lynches. Unfortunately he hasn’t really said enough for me to put him above a very slight village read, though. 22. Sparkrunner: Presumably inactive; null. @Sparkrunner

Alright, high time I posted a reads list with some actual thoughts on people, since I’ve got a chunk of time to do analysis. 1. Gears: First two posts lay out his strategy of random voting, and spreading votes across everyone—while infeasible and likely counterproductive, I doubt it’s alignment-indicative either way, and is more likely due to his unfamiliarity with how SE lends itself towards quick bandwagons. Encourages activity and not wanting elims to be able to hide, though these are generalisable statements which I’m not going to draw much trust from. After being poked, clarified his ideas in a way which seemed consistent with a villager. Posted a reads list with a lot of null assessments, which is perhaps understandable given it was only C1, but could also be a sign of unwillingness to commit to a particular stance. Very solid analysis on the brief wagon against me last cycle, and highlights Vapor and Pyro as votes who shouldn’t be allowed to go under the radar, which certainly happened for the latter. That post felt very village to me. Goes on in their next few posts to explain their paucity of village reads, saying the equivalent of “don’t trust anyone,” always a valuable sentiment in this game. Defends Silber as village before the lynch, which actually makes me slightly paranoid that they had advance knowledge on their alignment simply because of the post’s timing, but they make solid points again in that post and their subsequent one analysing the wagon. Hedges a bit on TJ before committing to a defence of him and voting Pyro. The only thing I disagree with here is the statement of his that we should lynch TJ if Pyro is village—setting up either/ors like that are bad unless we have concrete evidence that one is evil and the other isn’t (say, they had contradicting claims about the result of an action), because the Elims can use that reasoning to get two villagers killed, or get a teammate trusted if two of their members are up for the lynch. Overall read: moderate village. Has been talking a lot of sense and making solid contributions, especially for a newer player. 2. Matrim’s Dice (you need a nickname by the way, as that’s too long to type. Does Mat work? ): Has a lot of posts, so I’ll hit the highlights. Defends the worth of random poke voting after heavy condemnation from Straw & Co., including his own initial poke on Silber. Rightfully points out that the discussion on the merits of poke-voting was going nowhere AI fast, and has some good thoughts on the issue. Briefly votes Mint for their condemnation of Gears, which was one of the first votes with reasoning behind it, and retracts once Mint defends themselves. Follows Eternum’s stance on Pyro, helping solidify that bandwagon, and pops on later to say that Vapor “is likely new-playering” by switching their vote around a lot and defending themselves often, which is probably fair. I’ll note that frequent vote-switching isn’t really a problem as long as your reasons for doing so are legitimate, though; being caught in a tunnel is never a good thing, even if you’re right. Expresses apathy as to the lynch target C1, which makes me think Matrim/Pyro isn’t a likely team. Makes a few shorter posts in which they express increasing suspicion of Vapor. Implies I might be soft-cleared from Xino’s flip, which I’m not sure how I feel about—it could be an honest villager making an assumption, but it feels a bit like an attempt at a pocket. Votes on Ventyl and softly implicates TJ over the course of several posts before switching to him, while insisting he still suspects both. Then switches to Pyro. I’m finding that he’s generally hopping between votes more this cycle, which makes me a little suspicious that he’s willing to follow other voices while still blending in as a relatively vocal player. I also don’t completely understand their suspicion of TJ or Pyro from their posts. I’ll give him a null read with the qualification that he seemed a lot more village to me last cycle than this one. 3. Ashbringer: Far lower activity than the previous two, attributing this to juggling this game with the LG (which is understandable). Refuses to commit a vote to the Silber/Pyro/Straw debate, then ties it towards the very end of the cycle by voting Pyro. I haven’t seen them around this cycle ( @Ashbringer ), and would like more analysis and input from them. For now, a slight elim read because they seem fairly content hovering below the radar. 4. Straw: Has a lot of posts as well. The main opponent to random voting, making a string of initial posts about this, as well as a few questions poking holes in Gears’ first idea. Not going to rehash the whole C1 debate about random voting, but overall nothing Straw said in it seemed particularly AI, other than his insistence that discussion be created, which is a village sentiment even if it’s easily expressed. Gives an initial reads list which I don’t take too much issue with, then pokes some people in a follow-up post to give more elaboration on their stances, which is a good way to keep discussion going; another village read for that. I’m a little unhappy with the acrimonious tendencies which some of his statements lean towards; for instance, telling Pyro his idea was “horrible” before the switch onto him. It’s likely not AI—Straw tends to be blunt with his opinions regardless of alignment—but it does feel a little off in some instances. A few more posts of his which don’t express much beyond a suspicion of Vapor, who he switches his vote to while simultaneously asserting he’d rather not lynch them. This is probably the weirdest decision Straw made, as the vote isn’t useful to apply pressure if it’s explicitly not intended to kill, and all it could do was make the outcome Straw said he opposed (a D1 lynch on a new player) more likely. Slight elim read for this. Posts another reads list which mostly seemed to reflect the thread’s general consensus on most players, and given Straw’s vocality, I think it’s likely due to him shaping consensus on people rather than a case of him blindly following popular opinion. Moves on to pressure some people and consolidate a pool of lynch targets. Responds to Gears arguing in favour of village reads, which I again agree with. Starts the initial push which sent Silber toppling. I’d almost say they were trying to defend Pyro, except, well... They’re currently pushing a Pyro lynch with the idea it’ll help clarify TJ’s alignment. I’m...not sold on this, especially since regardless of the result of the lynch, it doesn’t really clear or even heavily implicate TJ, and it’s working with the assumption Pyro is evil to begin with, which...yeah, he is suspicious, but that seems to be the only outcome he’s considering. Overall, Straw earns a mild village read simply for the volume of discussion he’s produced and encouraged, and to keep that discussion going I want him alive. I’m not necessarily in agreement with his reads, though. 5. Vapor: A lot of shorter posts. Drops largely unexplained votes on myself, Straw, and Pyro, simply stating that he is suspicious each time without really elaborating further. While this is very suspect, it could just be that he’s newer and lost, as Mat pointed out, so I’m hesitant to condemn him too much for it. He’s mostly passive in response to pressure from Eternum and Straw, which makes me inclined to be sympathetic when viewing his first few posts. @Vapor, most of the suspicion on you seems to come from your lack of certainty, so don’t be afraid to speak your mind. Better to have your own “wrong” opinion than to just follow along with everyone else—that’s largely not much fun, and will get you suspected more quickly. Eventually does vote Silber and explains their reasoning, and posts a reads list towards the beginning of this cycle which is mostly inconclusive. I agree with Straw and Eternum that Vapor earns a very slight elim read, though I believe we should give him more of a chance to assert himself and express his own ideas, which it looks like he’s beginning to move towards; as such, I’d rather not lynch him this cycle. 6. Shard of Reading: Did not vote C1, and has posted very little. Dropped a largely unexplained vote on Pyro before leaving again. For similar reasons as Ashbringer, a slight elim read, as they seem to be trying to escape notice. @Shard of Reading, could I get your thoughts on four players of your choice, as well as a bit more explanation for your vote on Pyro? 7. Mist: Another lower-activity player. Agreed with Straw’s stance against random voting, then dropped a vote on Vapor for reasons left largely unexplained. Suspicious of Mat, made some projections on elim team size, and hasn’t posted since, including to vote this cycle. Unlike the other two, though, I don’t believe she’s intentionally trying to remain low-activity, as her posts have expressed fairly firm opinions. As such, a null read, and I hope she posts more. 9. TJ Shade: A complicated case. Has come under quite a bit of fire, for reasons I don’t really understand, so I’m going to perform my own analysis. Takes a mostly neutral stance in the poke-voting controversy, with perhaps a slight bias towards Straw, and makes pretty good points even if they’re mostly NAI. Votes on Xino for a change in tactics, which I’m not a huge fan of—people should have the freedom to change their playstyles if they’d like to. Does note that Straw was perhaps reading people based on their agreement with him, which, even if not strictly true, was a good generalised observation which seemed like something a villager would pick up on. Rightfully mentions that my vote on Straw lacked reasoning, and is one of the first to pivot to Silberbarfen, which ends up resulting in that lynch. Defends Pyro’s actions and bandwagoning as NAI for him, which is perhaps a good point, though it’s not exactly productive either, and I disagree with his stance that eliminators seem less likely to bandwagon. Elaborates on this more in his next post and makes a good argument for Silber’s lynch, which has decent reasoning even if we know the outcome—it was mainly PoE from a list Straw made himself. Makes good points this cycle as well, noting that Ventyl’s post on Xino’s death was perhaps exaggerated, and that his role in starting the Silber lynch wasn’t necessarily a good reason to lynch him. I do agree at the very least that Mint and Eternum’s condemnations of him are slightly flawed. Votes Mint as the most likely elim on the Silber train. Does get a little defensive in response to Mat, and makes a few points I disagree with; namely, I think voting someone for defending a person you suspect (or attacking a person you trust) is valid, though it’s obviously not as good as other forms of evidence. Overall, though, I think TJ received a disproportionate amount of condemnation and responsed reasonably well, and as such give him a mild village read. He’s given some good points, and I think a lot of people are tunnelling on him, or voting him because they have nowhere else to go. 10. Truthwatcher: Randomly votes on Silber, becoming the first person to do so. Clarified twice that he did so only to dodge the filter, and to avoid inactivity. Now that he seems to be a bit more active, he tried to incite discussion on why Xino was killed, which is slightly suspicious to me, as reading too far into elim kills can be a bad thing (especially on C1), and I don’t view it as a productive use of discussion unless we start to see patterns across multiple kills. Joined the Pyro bandwagon without much explanation. Elim read, probably my strongest amongst the lower-actives. Another case of someone who seems to be trying to slip below the radar, and has the most blatantly suspicious posts and voting patterns. Analysis on the next ten players coming, but I feel I owe the world a post, and I’m scared of this getting deleted. Vote will also come then.

I thought you were saying that the random voters were inherently suspicious or counterproductive, which is what I disagree with. On reflection you likely weren’t attacking them specifically, but the tone of the multiple posts in a row condemning the behaviour gave me that impression, likely. Poke votes can generate early lynch discussion—they put some names in red and allow subsequent votes to have a firmer grounding. They’re not especially productive when compared to evidence-based ones, of course, but they’re better than nothing and get people comfortable with voting to begin with. Of course, that’s less of a concern in this game with the filter, but it’s still a point in their favour. Pushing back the discussion on AI-indicativeness of Elim votes because of time—this post already might not make it within this cycle. QFs are so fast. I think the conversation has moved a bit beyond this anyway, so PM me if you’d like to discuss it. I tend to believe the random voting will on occasion produce analyseable interactions, which is why I was OK with it and defended it. Provoking more general discussion is good too, though. It just has to turn into lynch discussion at some point, or it has no teeth. And pokes can be used to give the kind of discussion you’re talking about teeth, which has evidently happened in the time I’ve been away. I agree with Straw that this is an odd conclusion to jump to. I generally state my village reads pretty early, mainly so I can wince later when I see how badly I’ve been pocketed, and since Xino’s points seemed sensible, I noted that. While trust obviously should never be absolute, it’s important to recognise that some people are making positive contributions to discussion and helping the village, as putting everyone in your suspect pool typically leaves you too many people to wade through. Dunno why these quotes fused but they did. Devotary, I’m not thinking about the vote itself but the way it’s cast—Elims tend to make their votes on fellow teammates very easily retractable, pokes especially, and looking for signs of that can be helpful. Also, it might not be a trend anymore, but it was very common eliminator practice the first year or two that I played for teammates to select each other for poke votes for cheap distancing. Don’t know if that’s still the case, but it’s worth noting. Straw, I really didn’t have a reason to vote you besides my abstract disagreement with you, but I added it anyway because a) I needed to and b. I wasn’t terribly happy with your condemnation of the random voting, and felt that a vote on you would be a good form of temporary retaliation, and making my position clear. I’ll go ahead and Straw now, though, as you’ve been a helpful participant in discussion from what I’ve skimmed in the thread, and aside from that I think my vote simply isn’t doing much good, as you’re not a serious candidate anymore. How I feel after reading through five pages of new content too. That said, unless I missed it, a bit of justification would be nice for this vote. Are you on to change it? I’ve simply been busy, else I’d have gotten back here earlier. And on a quick glance through some recent posts, you apparently did. I will address this later. In terms of addressing accusations against me, I’ve replied to Straw’s post and will try to catch anything else that was an actual accusation in the post following this, and then hopefully stop multiquoting. I suppose I can’t complain too much about the wagon on me given my defence of random voting, but other than that I’m confused as to why you’re reading me as evil from your explanation; unless you think my stance that random votes can produce meaningful discussion is an inherently evil belief, which there’s little I can do about, I see little reason for your suspicion. I am a little interested in that too, particularly in how Devotary was key in both forming and dissolving it—I don’t think it means she’s necessarily evil, but she seems to have largely directed the shift in both instances without terribly much reasoning other than wanting a response from me about Straw’s comments. Dunno if that speaks to Devotary leading a larger coalition, evil or no, or just her powers of persuasion more generally After this post, which I’m making simply to get something in before rollover, I want to do actual player analysis rather than just multi quoting and responses. Also, Pyromancer, simply because I find your vote and interactions with me odder than Silber’s for the present. If I have time before the cycle ends, I will place a more well-thought vote, but I figured an immediate response was more pressing. Sorry for being mostly absent—this is only my second or third QF and I always forget how fast they move. I’ll try to check more periodically going forward so I’m not in such an almighty rush next cycle.

Hmm. An interesting idea, though not necessarily one I agree with. As Xino says below, people are going to start forming weak suspicions and suspecting others, leading to consolidation of votes into the usual D1 lynch trains, and the degree of compliance required for this plan makes it likely infeasible to begin with. (And, now you’ve ninja’d me saying the exact same thing. Perfect. ) Ah, yes, MR29. Judging by that game, low activity is a problem, though hopefully the faster pace of the QF will both encourage participation and hasten the demise of those who fail to contribute. This is good sense from Xino, and mirrors my thoughts on the issue. With no role interactions, in-thread discussion, specifically lynch discussion, is quite literally our only means of finding or working against the Eliminators, and the more people we force to meaningfully contribute, the more information we’ll have to work with. While voting patterns tend to be the most useful to analyse, we shouldn’t be lax about pressuring and testing people just because the filter is in place—it’s quite possible for elims to skate by on minimally reasoned votes on third parties, and to mostly stay out of the public eye, if we aren’t vigilant; as such, pressing and responding to people other than those you’re voting on is important, especially to avoid tunnels. (If you’re looking up my history in SE right now, do as I say, not as I do ) Going to disagree here, Straw. Random voting is better than no voting at all, especially since Eliminator voting can never be truly random, because their decision is always informed by whether or not they’re voting on a teammate, and how they think it’ll make them look if or when the person flips. While I understand the desire to withhold your vote until you have more information to go off, it’s also not productive to cast stones at those trying to generate interaction with poke votes, provided that’s their actual intent with it. Lynches need to get started somehow, and pokes and responses to them are generally how it happens; obviously more mature discussion can and should happen later, but for the beginning of D1 (which this is), they’re invaluable for getting the ball rolling. I think your condemnation of Gears is perhaps a bit hasty, Mint—he’s not contradicting himself, merely clarifying (he wants the initial votes spread out across a wide range of people to try to make Eliminators cast distinct votes). While I don’t necessarily agree with his idea, he is being consistent. Though I agree with your assertion that we should be letting inactivity take care of itself; unless we’re killing a lurker who’s intentionally not contributing during a meaningful cycle, there’s no reason to use lynch discussion on people who aren’t contributing to the game, especially since inactives are both good red herrings for Team Evil, and discussion on them can easily turn NAI or meta, and doesn’t always advance the village’s analysis once the person is dead. Agreed on both counts, though the latter is perhaps overstated a bit; generally, if an eliminator becomes disengaged enough from the game to be considered inactive, they likely aren’t checking their doc much either. Liking Striker’s ideas here, especially the ones on poke-voting and why it’s useful, and this is why I’ll defend early D1 lynch discussion no matter how asinine it may seem. Incentivising contribution and using votes to do so is a great way to draw people in, provided we do eventually move past the random voting. I tend to notice that votes get more reasoning as turns and cycles progress. We’re only two hours into D1, so while this level of engagement would be frustrating on D4, say, it’s useful now just to get things rolling, and I’m not sure why you’re objecting to it so strongly, considering that the votes are generating or attempting to generate discussion, and without them we’d just have a bunch of vague check-in posts which are just as impervious to analysis as random votes. I’d also note that random votes do technically have reasoning behind them, though it’s simply reasoning you object to strongly. Again, while I’m not condemning you for waiting to vote until you feel you have more information, I’m curious as to what information you hope to collect other than tone reads off a village which isn’t voting at all. Well, I was not expecting my first post to be a long multiquote, but here we are. Al Funcoot will have to wait for tomorrow, I think, as I’ve got an essay to edit for a friend tonight, but if anyone is interested in partnering up for RP, please PM me and we can set something up. And wow, these threads move fast compared to when I was last playing. I like it a lot, but it’s disconcerting when you’re writing a long analysis post and the number of posts doubles as you’re doing so

The real question is not whether the tattoo exists, but if and how it is being concealed.

It’s time for me to return to SE as a player, and a nice vanilla game which won’t require anything except voting seems right up my alley. (It also seems fitting that it’s run by Orlok and Stink, the first GMs I played under.) Al Funcoot, a man accustomed to a life of luxury until the Ministry discovered his noble lineage had been elaborately faked, and who has thus now fallen on hard times, is joining. He hopes to survive long enough to create new false connections to the House Ffnord, thereby continuing his loftier existence as a count within the nobility once more.

The game is over! Please allow a 24-hour rollover period so we can get a writeup done, and you’ll see the results then!

“We’ve all been fools before,” said Demandred softly. “But this folly has been a pervasive one. I do not know why you have failed to trust me, Sammael, particularly when this snivelling creature was once Lews Therin’s servant. Or maybe...he was Lews Therin himself?” Sammael raised an eyebrow, and said nothing. It certainly appeared more reasonable to him that Demandred was the traitor here. Nothing had been seen of his movements before his sudden reappearance in Amadicia, to fight the Dragon. At least they knew where Asmodean had been. As the other man began approaching Asmodean, Sammael readied a weave of fire and flung it at his erstwhile ally, just as Demandred’s hand gripped Asmodean’s shoulder. The Mask of Mirrors around him flickered and failed, revealing the face of a ruddy youth whose eyes contained the memories of another man, long since dead. The Dragon. Rand al’Thor wasted no time, rolling away from the oncoming blast of flame and preparing a final weave to end Sammael, who stood exposed and shocked. Yet something existed between him and the Source. A slick boundary. He spun to Demandred, whose face, wreathed in agony, bore a grim smile and look of satisfaction. “I will not say avenge me, Sammael,” he croaked. “But your eyes should now be clear. Kill him.” Amethyst Scorpion was lynched! Scorpion (2): Falcon Falcon (2): Scorpion, Hyena Emerald Falcon was killed! He was Demandred the Forsaken! Cycle 9 has begun! It will end in about 23.5 hours, on Tuesday 28 April at 9 PM EDT. Due to low playercounts, there is no longer a lynch. This cycle is shortened to 24 hours. Get your orders in on time, please, as it should be relatively straightforward system of picking the best way to kill your enemy. Good luck! [Player List] Amber Vulture Semirhage Amethyst Scorpion Azure Mouse Graendal Charcoal Hyena Chartreuse Penguin Moghedien Coral Swan M’Hael Cream Tuatara Lanfear Emerald Falcon Demandred Fuchsia Ostrich Mesaana Indigo Weasel Aran’gar Ivory Dragonfly Moridin Magenta Albatross Rahvin Mauve Crocodile Shaidar Haran Melon Dingo Osan’gar

The cycle is closed! still only one person dead though

The men who claimed to be Asmodean, Sammael and Demandred looked at each other uncomfortably across the low Amadician plain. Two more smoking corpses lay at their feet. Two more Chosen dead, bringing the total almost incalculably high. The newest, the upstart Taim, none felt pity for; despite his skill, he thought altogether too much of himself. But Lanfear...she was perhaps the oldest of them all, and had been closest of them to Lews Therin. That she had fallen was an ill sign, as if the deaths of over half the other Chosen did not serve as poor tidings. Yet they three lived, survivors of the fires which had consumed so many of their colleagues. And as they stood, each knew with a look of grim determination that it would be perhaps only one man, if any, who walked away from Amadicia alive. And each was determined to be that one—or else die in the attempt. Coral Swan was lynched! Swan (2): Hyena, Falcon Falcon (1): Tuatara Coral Swan was killed! He was M’Hael the Forsaken! Cream Tuatara was killed! She was Lanfear the Forsaken! Cycle 8 has begun! It will end in about 47.5 hours, on Monday 27 April at 9 PM EDT. Please remember to get your orders in before rollover, and continue posting in-thread. Two cycles without posting will kill you. Good luck! [Player List] Amber Vulture Semirhage Amethyst Scorpion Azure Mouse Graendal Charcoal Hyena Chartreuse Penguin Moghedien Coral Swan M’Hael Cream Tuatara Lanfear Emerald Falcon Fuchsia Ostrich Mesaana Indigo Weasel Aran’gar Ivory Dragonfly Moridin Magenta Albatross Rahvin Mauve Crocodile Shaidar Haran Melon Dingo Osan’gar

Cycle closed!