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Devotary of Spontaneity

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Everything posted by Devotary of Spontaneity

  1. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Yes, and that I can still take an action today, which confirms that TJ had a pallid mask. I can't be sure that he intended to pass it to Kas, but his reaction to losing it makes me lean closer to village on him. Assuming TKN is telling the truth about Archer not taking an action, Archer's probably just a silver-boned rather than an SE. Do you think the elims started with more shade protection than silver dust and a silver boned?
  2. Devotary of Spontaneity
    So his target was probably Archer since Sart mentioned wanting to take a look at him. I don't see Archer being protected by a village shade expert (unless he is one) since he was under suspicion. That leaves Alvron as the elim kill maybe? That's a lot of protection floating around. Or they withheld to frame a roleblock target. Yes, that was me. It was between you and TKN since I didn't think e!Araris would have claimed the silver dust if he was going to submit a kill.
  3. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Wrath of shades should only happen when someone dies though, right? Even if Sart had a crossbow he didn't kill anyone so he shouldn't have been shade killed. Is that how it worls @Elandera?
  4. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Perhaps wrath of shades happened at just a 5% chance. Likely that would mean either Archer or Alvron is the killer, unless the elims had a silver boned.
  5. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Given that Araris claims Aman did have silver dust, it's more likely that elims would join the train hoping to recover it. I'd even give village points to people who were around after my claim and didn't vote for Aman. I can see why the elims would be hesitant to fake-claim shade expert if they were worried that two such villagers seemed unlikely, but if e!Mat had claimed that, both he and Aman would have lived for a while. Aman's vote for Mat D1 put him into consideration for the exe that led to him losing a life which could have been used against shades. Not currently suspicious of Mat then. Depending on how seriously Aman was claiming thief, Fae's claim looks good. If Aman had expected to live long enough to 'prove' his role, he'd have needed an elim thief on his team to actually steal items, and if that's Fae there's no reason for her to claim. If Aman always knew he'd be exed (which is likely), Fae's claim is less meaningful. (I think I'm confusing myself here.)
  6. Devotary of Spontaneity
    I can see why the elims might not submit a kill, which is why I brought up the possibility in the first place, but I think it's more likely that the kill was roleblocked.
  7. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Well the odds of at least one person going insane are 1-(0.95^16(at max since I have iron will and players can have this without the wf role)). It's not that it's implausible for someone to be driven insane by horrors, but when it's only one person the odds are higher that it was due to being attacked since horrors are only 5% for any given player. Your suspicions of/ambivalence towards Aman were one of the reasons I roleblocked him, incidentally. (Another is that he was a roleblocker who sold out the village in the previous game, but this is less relevant.) E!thief isn't a good enough source of shade protection since the odds of getting silver dust are only 1/12. They'd need to have something else (or five players, but I consider this less likely). I'd have hoped that a shade expert who protected you would have said something before me since it would be painful for both of us to be outed. With 37 hours before my claim and 2 hours since, the odds that this happened without the shade expert claiming are low.
  8. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Looking back, less than I'd heard. Only one post where he agrees with Sart, unless you count him voting for Mat after Mat voted Sart. True that roleblocks are less valuable in this game than in the previous one where roleblocks were just about the only way to stop infinite conversion. Fine. We're not going anywhere with votes more than 3/4 of the way into the turn, and now that Aman's posted his reads list I'm ready to claim. I'm a (the? things could get awkward if there's more than one) white fox (hence making my character Silence's new business partner). I roleblocked Aman since I thought I'd be too obvious if I roleblocked Archer. Just like my first game with a role with claiming scan-type role and accusing someone on circumstantial evidence just because I'm not willing to let a likely villager die when it's avoidable (not that I'm sold on Ash being a villager). We don't have infinite protects like in that game, but I suppose we can still give Alv a gun crossbow. @Elims, if you have a writer, please send me a PM. In exchange for not killing me, if you send me a list of elims I promise not to roleblock them.
  9. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Mat responded two minutes before rollover and didn't vote, so that seems unlikely unless he's teamed with Archer. Also the ties to Sart, though I do know what you mean about v!Sart having controversial ideas. Do you think it's worth sacrificing a roleblocker to maybe get an elim? Shade expert can't protect twice in a row. The other part of voting Mat was not wanting you to die without being able to respond (this will be true every cycle but there's enough data from C1 that I now think it's unlikely you're evil and wouldn't want to vote you) but being unwilling to exe Archer twice in a row.
  10. Devotary of Spontaneity
    E!Mat feels safe until my vote and isn't willing to switch to DeTess after saying that he doesn't think she's evil, counting on being safe after surviving a three way tie. I still think Archer's more evil though. I don't like Sart being so convinced that a white fox claiming gets a free kill on an elim and a confirmed villager. That reads like he already knows whether the blocked kill was a white fox roleblock or a shade expert protect. However, e!Sart would have to either backtrack abruptly if a white fox claim didn't pan out or be 100% willing to sacrifice a teammate depending on scenario. I can see the attempted killer being written off in the latter case. Overall read this as suspicious unless he claims responsibility for the lack of kill.
  11. Devotary of Spontaneity
    There's still value in the shade expert keeping quiet since even without their protective abilities they can still survive an elim kill, so if that is what happened it's not worth it for them to claim in thread yet. Noted about an elim not claiming to have lost silver bones though. Do you think this is more likely than the roleblocked kill?
  12. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Elandera said that roleblocks still result in broken survivors, so the only scenarios left are 1. you were attacked and either protected or the kill was roleblocked 2. Someone with silver bones was attacked and either lost their life and hasn't said so/was protected/kill was roleblocked and you went insane independently 3. No kill, you get horrored. Maybe this if the elims have no protections against shades but killing seems worthwhile if they do. Most likely that you got attacked and was most likely saved by a roleblock since nobody's claimed to have lost silver bones/pallid mask. Even a silver boned elim who was retaliated against by a shade expert could claim to have lost it and play it off as being attacked. I guess I can see where they wouldn't because that requires you to get horrored but it's not like that's implausible. And the odds of a shade expert deciding to protect you are probably higher than the odds of a white fox roleblocking the killer. This is relatively high engagement for me. I've been having trouble caring about the results of recent games so am trying a little harder this one. Mech is always easier than looking at players. Alvron and Kas claimed the two VitC. It seems that Alvron didn't care which of DeTess, Mat, or Archer died D1.
  13. Devotary of Spontaneity
    So does that mean you did use a spellbook? If you did but didn't redirect the killer, that goes back to the kill hit a silver boned/kill was roleblocked/elims didn't want to risk Shades. Do you learn why you went insane?
  14. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Alpha or TKN in that order. Archer then DeTess then Mat, but I'm not going to start with any of them tomorrow.
  15. Devotary of Spontaneity
    I would have voted Archer had he not been exed C1 of MR 63, especially after his last-minute vote for DeTess. Of the remaining two, I preferred exing Mat over DeTess but didn't feel confident about either being evil. Not worth the risk of avoiding rather than deliberate, but that's most likely with silver boned Mat as the only elim of the three, which I'd lean against since I'd still put Archer as the highest suspicion among them. This was supposed to be an easy scouting job. Silence, or whatever her new moniker is, wouldn't have brought both her children along if she'd expected this much danger. I knew it was a mistake to become her partner. We'd worked well together for years; I didn't ask why she needed me to watch her children shortly before the White Fox brought in another bounty, she didn't ask why nobody knows anything about my sister-in-law's husband. Now, she's back to bounty-hunting and her children along with her, which means I got dragged along to make sure they don't die, and to ensure nobody questions why an innkeeper's daughters are exploring the forests for silver. At least the money's good. Silence can afford to pay now that she's not in debt anymore, and Sar and I definitely need the help. No amount of money is worth getting killed by our fellow homesteaders though.
  16. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Yes, I missed that ties don't result in no-exe since usually someone is mentioned as having survived. I did immediately assume that you had caused the tie you were unhappy about. Just a turn, but the inability to vote gets fatal in the late game. I would agree that it's likely the elims have at most one form of shade protection (dust, bones, expert) and a total of five lives. Since shade expert is leaning more village this game, it's less likely this role is elim (or elim exclusive), while silver bones is still a possibility. Expecting e!Shade!Mat to have been protected isn't a foregone conclusion with it being 13-4 in this setup. There's only so much the elims can do here. I would have expected Mat to be more willing to vote in self-preservation and even bus e!DeTess in this scenario though.
  17. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Weren't you the one to vote for Mat with VitC Kas? Did you miss Archer's vote?
  18. Devotary of Spontaneity
    That's the point, to see how willing you are to vote for her. The answer is apparently not at all.
  19. Devotary of Spontaneity
    I'll get around to it. Wouldn't be surprising it there weren't. I was going to vote Mat but him being unwilling to switch in self-preservation looked good. Or actually let's put Matrim to tie it at 3-3-3 and see what he picks. DeTess (3): Sart, Ash, Aloha Mat (3): DeTess, Aman, Devotary Archer (3): Araris, TJ, Mat Aman (1): Kas Fae (1): Fae
  20. Devotary of Spontaneity
    This is true, noted. With regards to elim numbers, five is high but there's also a high probability of an elim dying to Shades. I'm pretty sure Elandera is counting on at least one pure mechanics kill since there's at least 12 villagers in this game. She did last time and gave the elims a shade expert (which protected players from shades, as opposed to this game where it can no longer protect players twice in a row but is more village-aligned since it can protect players from kills and attack in retaliation) to compensate. Let's see. If it's 12-5 and the elims get a perfect game: no dead elims, no crossbow or shade expert deaths, no silver bones survivals, they need four kills so 1-(0.95*0.9*0.85*0.8)~=42% of being attacked by shades. The actual percentage will likely be higher. Still, 4 and an ability that protects from Shades seems more likely since it messes with votes and win cons less. Mobborn definitely isn't village. There's an even stronger sense of 'If I get exed, my faction suffers' than as an elim. Fascinating. I think the elims want the votes to be close. Contested votes are especially valuable to them if they can get a bunch of villagers up for the exe since it's so easy for vote manipulation to throw suspicions around. I'd expect scattered elim votes, especially early on. I'd prefer not to exe Archer C1 twice in a row.
  21. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Yes, the cycle and game are over. Anyone who has writeup requests may submit them to their GM PM.
  22. Devotary of Spontaneity
    The main reason a villager would use VitC (making the elims overcommit to protecting at-risk teammates for fear of secret votes) can be accomplished without the failure chance by switching your vote last-minute in thread. The elim reason to use VitC (vote for villagers or remove votes from elims) can't be replaced by changing their vote in thread last-minute since that leaves a permanent identifiable record. Did you see that Alpha already had two votes on them by the time you voted? It seems justifiable though since Alpha didn't respond to TKN or Aman's votes and only cared about yours, and TKN unvoted shortly afterwards. Although TKN says he didn't notice that you and Aman were voting for the same player he was. Would you be willing to be exed for a good reason?
  23. Devotary of Spontaneity
    If it's something like Villager (3): A, B, C Elim (2): D, E The fear that villagers might use VitC can make elims try to protect their teammate with extra votes. A villager (however confident they may be) who actually wants the elim dead has greater freedom to vote in thread for the elim last minute than an elim does to vote for the villager last minute.
  24. Devotary of Spontaneity
    VitC hasn't been that important. It only got used twice (one elim, one villager) in the first run and neither changed the outcome (though the elim one would have had there not been a late vote shift in thread). In the more recent game, Mat tried to use VitC to save (from outright death to 50-50) an outed elim and it failed, ensuring the elims lost. It's worth looking out for this in close votes where elims can't afford to be seen supporting teammates. 20% failure chance is high enough that this is more useful to the village as a threat than for actual use.
  25. Devotary of Spontaneity
    I'll sign up as Surnia.
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