StrikerEZ

Striker(2): Fifth, Lum Lum(4): Drake, Devotary, Ark, Rae, Snip(1): HaelArk(1): Snip EDIT: no, not everyone is tied for the lynch, brain....... Also, ninja’d by Elandera.

....I keep forgetting that you can bribe with boxings. I think the votes are fine where they are right now though.

Hmm...that’s certainly true...but we know who has the bribes now. We can just look at who’s votes got moved. If this lynch flips against me and Snip because of vote manip, then we just lynch whoever has the bribes right now (can’t remember off the top of my head).

I was thinking about going the opposite direction, because there’s no way we can get enough people to get on and vote up to 17-19 votes because of time zones and stuff.

Thanks Araris. Lumgol. We almost certainly don’t need more than 2 extra votes on Lum at this point.

Okay, so, I guess I may as well admit it. I scanned Lum D1 with my ledger. I decided to PM Devotary because I had no read on her, and I figured village!Devotary would keep the chain going and elim!Devotary would just kill me and say I was obviously framing Lum when I eventually claimed in thread if the chain never went anywhere. Of course, now we’ve got a 25% chance of getting the wrong results for Lum. Since Lum hasn’t even tried to claim that she bribed anyone (the only way she could be village and scan as corrupt), I’m pretty sure she’s elim. I’d rather make sure we have as little chance of getting a corrupt result though. @Fifth Scholar @Araris Valerian If you could take your votes off me so we can take some votes off Lum to lower the risks of her flipping incorrectly, that’d be great.

I can confirm that Hael’s claim that Lum was scanned as corrupt is true. I passed along that information to someone else, who then told Hael it seems. I was waiting to vote on Lum until we had multiple people in the chain.

It’s mainly just paranoia that Snip is being set up for a mislynch by the elims. Plus, Snip’s posts, even though he’s tunneling on Ark (which I probably would’ve done in his position), feel genuine to me.

I'll take my vote off myself once someone else has at least two votes that is not Snip (I'm not certain that he's not an elim, but I feel like he's probably not) or before I go to bed, whichever happens first. You can just pretend that there's only two votes on me. It is entirely possible that he's actually an elim. I guess I'd be willing to let a Snip lynch happen....oh, you're voting on Snip now.... Whelp. I'd rather not get lynched, but I also think it's a bad idea to lynch Snip....ugh. Striker

Striker I don't think we should have a tie between me and Snip. Don't ties result in both players being lynched? I trust Snip, and I think it'd be bad to lose two villagers in one lynch. Until someone else gets 3 votes (or someone takes a vote off me or Snip), I'm fine getting lynched.

I mean, I didn't really expect anyone else to vote on Drake since so many people were against the whole "vote for me thing," and I didn't want to join in on that trend either. (I don't think I'd make a good governor, in real life or in the game ) At the time I wrote my post, yes. As of reading Alvron's post, I'm not so sure anymore.

Thank you Elandera for posting, I didn't want to double post or edit my last post to do this. @Alvron Gaea Thank you for being the only person so far to explain why we shouldn't lynch Gaea in a way I could actually understand. I'm not willing to vote on Wilson yet, so I guess we'll have to deal with the 15% chance (hopefully no one else votes on me) that I'm revealed as corrupt for now.

I'm so mad. I'd typed up a lot of responses to Fura's post, but then I clicked on one of my quotes in hist post, went back to this page, and then quoted some of his post and lost everything. Guess I'll have to start over. Joe was the obvious choice to me at the time because 1) I figured that keeping the black market and PMs around was far more valuable and 2) I hadn't considered the fact that Joe might've specifically chosen who the corrupt constable was. Personally, I would've just let RNG decided, but I don't know what Joe would've done. I nominated Drake because his post asking to be elected governor was the only one that I liked. I can't really remember why, though maybe I'll be able to point it out if I go back and reread it at some point. Also, not sure what those bolded sentences are trying to say.... No, I am not. I just think that, even if Wilson is corrupt, the benefit of the village being able to coordinate in PMs, where the elims can't see what they're planning, is far more valuable than the black market and guaranteed correct lynch results. I've always really liked PMs (it's how I met my best friend on the Shard), even if I tend not to make too many. I actually PM'd a lot in Alv's zombie game and Sart's Rithmatist game. That's more because I had the time to do that, whereas I've been pretty busy during most other games I've played. Speaking of PMs though, I haven't made enough of those this game so far. I'm gonna remedy that. I'll point out that the post you're calling me out for reversing my stance was after the reveal that Joe wasn't corrupt. Before Joe's death, I was really hoping (perhaps unreasonably so) that Joe would be corrupt so that we could keep both the black market and the PMs. I'd hoped to keep both, and I was expressing my frustration that we'd have to get rid of one of them. I've since decided that it would be best to get rid of the black market. I wasn't trying to say that. I was just trying to say that I was cautious of immediately jumping on a Snip lynch since he was the recipient of the dagger used to kill Burnt.

I’m mostly trusting of Snip right now because of the way he phrased his last post. I don’t think an elim would bring up the possibility of a double claim, though that could lead into IKYK territory. I will admit that Ark’s alignment isn’t as certain as my last post seemed to imply, and I’m sorry I wasn’t clear about that. I’m starting to think that both Ark and Snip are village, actually. Elim!Snip pulling off a mislynch like this would almost certainly result in getting himself lynched. And it would be very easy for village!Snip to make the easiest conclusion after receiving his dagger that it actually is Ark’s.

As likely as it is that Ark is an elim at this point, I’d rather lynch Gaea first. We have a 50% chance of getting the corrupt Constable, and like Fura said (pretty sure it was Fura, at least), the loss of the black market hurts the elims a lot more than it does the village. Worst case scenario, Gaea turns out to be good, but at least the elims lose their easiest method of getting daggers and the villagers keep their best method of planning things: the PMs.

My opinion is that I don’t trust or suspect him. Did he even post D1? I’m about to leave for work right now, but I’ll go back and analyze his posts, if he has any, when I get home.

Okay, I definitely didn’t write what I meant very well. I was trying to say that the easiest way for the elims to get kills is by passing the dagger around amongst them selves by having one person be the only vote on a player and then killing that player. But I feel like that’s way too obvious, basically expected, and almost guaranteed to get the recipient of the dagger suspected (as has happened to Snip). As for trying to distance myself, I’m just trying to be cautious. Maybe Snip really is an elim and they really did plan this out. Maybe they were hoping that they could get away it it. Personally, I don’t think I’d do that as an elim, but there are many people who would. And I think that, unless the elims made a mistake by using the strategy of killing the player one of them has voted on, it’s far more likely that the elims realized what would happen if they did and planned ahead to frame someone. Doesn’t mean I’m hard-clearing, or even soft-clearing, Snip. I just think it’d be better to take a look at other targets first.

....well dang. I was really hoping that Joe was going to be corrupt. I don’t want to lose the black market or the PMs. Personally, I don’t know why some people have immediately jumped onto a Snip lynch. Yes, it’s highly likely that the elims would truly to pass around the dagger(s) like that...but come on, that’s so obvious. I’d be more worried about elims trying to frame someone to cause a mislynch this way rather than them trying to horde the daggers.

The elims have the ability to coordinate their actions without the village knowing. The only way the village can do that is via PMs. They could coordinate via the thread, but then the elims see everything they’re planning. Plus, role claims (or I guess item claims in this game) are far safer in PMs than in thread.

So, for the Constables, right now we have a vote tally of this: Joe(4): Striker, Bard, Lumgol, ElanderaGaea(2): Fifth, DrakeWilson(3): Araris, Ark, Devotary Personally, I think PMs are far more important than the black market. But we don’t have to risk losing either of those right now if we just lynch Joe. We have a 33% chance of getting the corrupt constable. Worst case scenario, we get rid of the black market tomorrow if Joe turns out to be clean.

I’m glad that several people have started coming to their senses and voting for Joe. I haven’t done a vote count, but I think he’s in the lead if my memory is right. Anyway, Drake. He’s the only person up for Governor I’d feel safe having as governor.

In order for a lynch to happen, there has to be two votes on a player. And per Joe’s response to my question, that means that the minimum chance we have of the alignment being revealed incorrectly is 10%. So, like Bard said, we either need basically everyone to vote on whoever we want to lynch (very unlikely) or we need to keep as few people as possible voting on a person. Which means our lynch targets should only get two votes. All of this is only dependent on the corrupt constable being alive, which is why I think it’s a good idea to lynch the Constables first. That way we can actually be sure of the lynch results, no matter how many people vote on the lynchee.

Oh, so if 2 people voted on someone and they get lynched, there’d be a 10% chance their alignment would be shown incorrectly?

Okay, let us begin. First, I’d like to say that I think we should lynch the Constable General Yosef. We need the lynch results every day to be accurate, and we can’t do that unless we start lynching some Constables. As for why we would lynch the great Constable General Yosef, I think it’s because the other two have more important mechanics to keep around. I like my PMs, and I’m pretty sure all of us want to keep the black market around. @A Joe in the Bush If the corrupt constable is lynched, is there still a 5% chance they show up as not corrupt?

When Gadriel had been elected, he'd created quite the stir. He was unable to finish any sentence without rhyming it with the previous one, even if it didn't make sense...fur. Many of his opponents in the election had assumed he would've been considered unfit for the position, something the voters should've seen. However, it seems that they were wrong, for many voters found his rhyming charming and keen. ~ I don't know why this is my RP character, but here we go. His only personality trait is that he has to rhyme every sentence.