StrikerEZ

Congrats to @Kasimir, @TwinStorm, and @KaladinsSenseOfHumorSpren for winning! Kas had me completely fooled the whole damn game, and even if I had survived and gone for KSauce, I don’t know if I ever would’ve expected Kas to go next. And TwinS, you did a good job of staying low but interacting just enough to make me think you were probably just a disinterested villager lmao. I was right, by the way! Completely village! I was framed! Lmao

Var sat there, staring at the scrawled notes he had made. Not much had changed since the last time he had stared at the votes like this. He spent ages staring at the votes, hoping to make sense of patterns. If there even were any to see. He was feeling sick, both from the pressure and just physically. It was making it hard to think. But he kept going back to the first day’s votes. He was certain that a Spiked must have been voted on that day. There were so many votes that day, why else would the Spiked have gotten involved if a Spiked was not potentially on the line? Once again, just based on numbers and potentially faulty reasoning, Var was back to feeling like Jox was Spiked. He was certain of it now. Not much else made any sense to him. And his head hurt too damn much to feel up to reading the records of what was said. He doubted it would help anyway, not with the entire village voting for him. 6 of the suspects included. Half of them had to be Spiked, but he couldn’t decide which. Not like it mattered anyway. Var would be dead by sunset. Granted, it would not be the first time. It still hurt every time though. And he had grown attached to this city. Spirits curse him, he had. This always happened, didn’t it? He tried to avoid getting involved, keep his head low, but the Spirit sent him to places that needed help. And he was a helper at heart. He had just failed this time. He would die, and unless the villagers could stop the Spiked from killing overnight, the Spiked would take over the city. What was the point in trying? So Var let the village know his thoughts, accused Jox as his only decent lead, and sat in the market square to await his execution.

“Man,” Var said. “I really am going out here, aren’t I?” Var sat down, head in his hands. How had it come to this? The Spirit had sent him here of course, presumably to stop the coming disaster of the Koloss attack and the Spiked incursion, but Var had failed every step of the way. He had the entire village turned against him, likely spurred on by the Spiked. He could analyze the votes, analyze the notes of what everyone had said, but for what purpose? Would anyone believe him? It was worth a shot. ”I can’t do it right now,” Var said, “as I have to get back to work. But know that I will be analyzing the votes and everyone still alive to try and decide who the Spiked are. If I die, as is likely the case, and the village somehow survives the night, maybe that information will be useful to you all. For now, I have crem to clean up.”

"Let me add some more of my thoughts then," Var said. "I suspect the Spiked have a seeker. Copper was a smoker, I am a smoker, and Madiane is a smoker. Copper was village, I know I am village, and I am 99% sure Madiane is village. Why would there be so many village smokers without a Spiked seeker? Anyway, they already know a few people's roles already. We can only hope and pray that they don't already know the identity of our Lurcher. So, they're likely looking at whoever they don't already know the role of to figure out if they're a lurcher. If we have everyone 'choose' someone to protect, the Spiked have to try and game out which of their lurcher suspects is actually the lurcher, then have to figure out whether or not the person they decide upon is bluffing or not, and if they are bluffing, who they're actually going to protect. It just creates more mindgames for the Spiked to have to work through instead of them just picking randomly." "I don't think this logic holds up, Jox," Var said. "There's really no reason for the Spiked to want someone who's weaseled their way out of the execution dead. More often than not, someone who has avoided execution, especially if it happens multiple times, ends up executed eventually. That's essentially a free execution for the Spiked, one not on one of their own. The only reason the Spiked would want me dead so bad is if I'm on the right path somewhere. But they wouldn't want to kill me to implicate themselves in my death. Which makes me think I'm right about you and Mil."

“I am not baiting for information. The idea behind my hypothetical is to make it harder for the Spiked to decide who to kill. The Lurcher could be anyone, and if we’re all saying we’ll protect someone, they don’t know who’s actually going to be protected. We’re making their lives more difficult if we do this.” “But if you were a Spiked,” Var said “would you not want to keep me alive for tomorrow for the easy mis-execution? I’ve been perfectly set up here for it.” “I would protect Madiane because she’s the one person in this town I trust. I used to trust Keldorn, but I’m beginning to worry I need to reevaluate even him. And I would kill Josha to give the village as little information as possible. That is, of course, assuming Josha was not a fellow Spiked.”

Var was tired. He had voted against Madiane solely to save himself. He had been planning on it for the last few hours of the day, before Jox had even said anything. He had been hoping to catch the Spiked unawares, to try and prevent a last minute counter-hammer against him tying the votes. Of course Jox had to go and let the cat out the bag early. For what it’s worth, Var considered the move of tying up the vote to save himself as not indicative of his alignment either way. Var knew he was village, and would know that his own death would spell disaster for the village, regardless of if there were four or three Spiked. Plus, of course, an outsider would assume that Var would also tie up the votes if he was Spiked. As for why he had not argued too hard against his own execution or not switched his vote, who would he have switched his vote to? Antari and Madiane were the only other ones who had votes. Var still trusted Madiane, and Antari only had one vote on him. That would’ve still kept Var in the lead, which he could not allow. But, tying the votes kept everyone alive and gave them another chance to live. If there were four Spiked, that meant they had to avoid the Spiked’s kill tonight. And if there were four Spiked, they must have either a Lurcher or a Thug, or else everything would be over already. So, Var wanted to play a little game of hypotheticals. He let everyone know his thoughts thus far, then called for everyone to say who they would protect tonight if they were the Lurcher. Obviously the real Lurcher should say someone besides who they’re actually going to protect. @Kasimir @A Jo in the Bush @Biplet @TwinStorm @ThatOneWorldhopper @Hoid Slayer @KaladinsSenseOfHumorSpren And, just for fun, Var suggested they each say who they would kill tonight if they were the Spiked. ”I would protect Madiane if I was the Lurcher,” Var said, “and kill Josha if I was the Spiked.”

Madiane

“In normal circumstances, I would agree with not smoking. But in this city, emotional manipulation can change or cancel someone’s action. I wanted to avoid that happening to villagers. I smoked you because at the time I thought you might have had a powerful allomantic ability.”

“I am busy with my duties. I shall finish up soon, but for now, I smoked Kéamen on night one, Jox on night two, and no one on night three. Keldorn can corroborate that last one.”

Var felt supremely embarrassed. “I must admit,” he said, “that I did not remember Kéamen’s claim of being soothed or Fox’s confirmation of that claim. That…does ruin my idea, doesn’t it? Gah, I’m essentially back to square one. It does not help that I have essentially zero reads on anyone besides you and Madiane.”

Var had expected there to be more talking today. With how close they were to disaster, he expected people to speak up. But maybe it was in the Spiked’s best interest to just stay quiet and let the village destroy itself. That’s what they had done thus far. Var was certain the Spiked were somewhere in the pool of [Antari, Kéamen, Jox, and Mil]. He trusted Keldorn and Madiane, and Josha had been so thoroughly out of it he suspected the poor guy was lost. Which Var completely understood. It was difficult enough trying to solve this puzzle without knowing anyone, even with years of experience under his belt. Of Var’s suspect pool, he was most suspicious of Kéamen. Why had Kéamen claimed Tineye? Why had he only posted an anonymous message that first night? Who was the mysterious Mistborn/Coinshot who had killed Teal and then disappeared? Kéamen. Kéamen is a Spiked Mistborn who acquired Tin on the first night and steel on the second. The shot on Teal was either an incredibly lucky guess or motivated by a Spiked seeker catching Teal burning steel on the first night. I am less sure of there being a Spiked Seeker, but if Kéamen is a Spiked Mistborn, then Antari is almost assuredly the Spiked Seeker. Var had ample reasons to believe they were facing a Seeker, reasons he could not go into in public. But he needed people to believe him here. Var voiced his thoughts out loud, accusing Kéamen, and called for as many people to join him on voting for Kéamen. @A Jo in the Bush @TwinStorm @ThatOneWorldhopper @KaladinsSenseOfHumorSpren@Kasimir @Biplet

Var was flabbergasted by the murder of Lipitor. Why kill someone likely to be left outside the city gates or replaced anyway? It made no sense. And now Keldorn, whom Var trusted, was accusing Var. what a mess. Var needed to get some rest. But first, he would cast a vote for Mil.

@Araris Valerian “Aral,” Var said, “something felt off about the way Kéamen called out Fox. Is that a vote for Fox, or no?”

“I am unsure what I have to explain for myself,” Var said. “I think my reasoning is sound. But I will attempt to walk through it again. ”On day one, two villagers were the main candidates for execution. With how many people voted for them, it is likely at least one of those players is Spiked. If one of those players is Spiked, they were likely voting on a villager to make sure a villager had more votes than one of their teammates. One of their teammates would be among the three other players that received votes that day. Perhaps I am making a lot of assumptions, but this logic seems sound to me. ”As for why I voted for Jox initially: because I felt like Jox has said more and his death would give us more information. And I think the relationship between Jox and Mil goes both ways, not just one way. If Jox is Spiked, Mil is Spiked. If Mil is Spiked, Jox is Spiked. ”The reason I switched to Fox is because it felt like he was reaching for reasons to accuse me when my logic has been sound. I am not saying it is perfect, as I cannot know for sure who the Spiked are, but I think it is sound. And Fox’s accusation felt like one a Spiked would make to throw shade onto me. This does mean that I am switching my secondary Spiked guess to one of Kéamen or Keldorn. And that would mean I’d pick Kéamen.”

Fox

"This was essentially the same thought process I had earlier in the day, as soon as I heard of Teal and Astrid's passing. If we assume the worst, which is the safest option for us, we have to execute a Spiked today. We cannot rely on the potential existence of a Thug, Lurcher, or a Mistborn who happens to find a vial of iron, pewter, or steel. I am not 100% sure Jox is the best option, but we still have a little less than half the day left to decide." Var brought in as much air into his lungs as he could stand, and reached for the Gifts from the Spirit. His voice boomed out of him, reaching all over the town: "Everyone, we need your help. Ideally, we all should vote on someone. The more we vote, the more we talk, the easier it shall be to find the Spiked. Come all, come all, you are our hope! @KaladinsSenseOfHumorSpren @KelsierApologist @TwinStorm @Hoid Slayer @ThatOneWorldhopper @Biplet"

@Hoid Slayer "Keamen," Var said, "I understand your hesitance to vote, but we are in dire straights. We could be facing the end of the line here, if there are four Spiked. We need every vote we can get." Var pulled out a transcription about allomantic powers, showing it to Keldorn (@Kasimir) : "I like your theory," Var said, "but I highly doubt a Rioter or Soother would be strong enough to stop one of the Spiked from killing. The will of Ruin is just too strong for a mortal to overcome. "The clarification from Aral does make things...confusing. With so few suspects, I doubt the possibility of a second coinshot. This was likely the act of a Mistborn, one who got their hands on the little bit of steel we have in this town. Like you have said, I can't tell whether killing Teal would have been the actions of a villager or of the Spiked. I also have to wonder if Teal even attempted to use his powers to kill someone, or if he was soothed. I could see the latter being the case."

Var cursed. He had heard the news and came running anyway. He needed to see it for his own sanity. Teal and Astrid, both dead. Astrid by Teal’s hand, and Teal by the hands of the Spiked. Var had been so certain the little boy was secretly Spiked, as had many others, but the Sense told him Teal was clean. Var would have assumed the Spiked would leave Teal alive as a potential scapegoat for the executions. The fact that they took him out instead gave Var a terrible suspicion that one of the Spiked must be a Seeker. Why else would they have killed a prime execution candidate? Because they had felt him burning steel that first night. It all made a sickening amount of sense. The Spiked would be ecstatic to find and take out the village’s likely only coinshot by the end of the second night. Without their coinshot, Var and the others had a terrible task ahead of them. If there were 4 Spiked amongst the 15 suspects Aral originally listed, that left them with 6 villagers this day. If they didn’t execute a Spiked today, the Spiked would kill another villager tonight, and the fourth day would begin with 4 villagers and 4 Spiked. Even if all 4 villagers voted for the same Spiked, the 4 Spiked could all switch their votes at the last moment and cause the execution to tie and reach statement. Then they would be free to kill someone in the night, and this would all be over. All of that meant they had to execute a Spiked today. And continue to execute a Spiked every day afterwards lest things get too dangerous again. There was a chance there were only 3 Spiked and they had more time than Var suspected, but he would rather assume the worst and be pleasantly surprised than assume the best and be unpleasantly surprised. Var ran to the nearest person he saw and asked for a sheet of paper to write on. He sat down in the middle of the market square and began furiously jotting some notes down. Var had been worried about this. It was indeed the case that both Lijal and Astrid had been villagers. The Spiked had simply been content to let the villager squabble with each other. He doubted all of the non-voters were Spiked, but he was certain that one of them would be. That meant one of [Josha, Lipitor, Antari] was likely Spiked. Var saw little reason in trying to figure out which of them were Spiked at this moment since all three of them had said or done little of substance by this point in time. He also suspected that the Spiked likely had one hidden amongst the people who had received votes that first day yet were still alive. So, one of [Fox, Jox, Antari] was likely Spiked. He doubted Antari was the Spiked in that second group, as he doubted the Spiked would have reacted as much as they likely did if a quiet member of theirs had been voted on. If he assumed Fox was Spiked, then that likely meant one of the non-Jox voters on Astrid was Spiked; one of [Keldorn, Kéamen]. If Jox instead was spiked, that likely meant one of the non-Fox voters on Lijal was Spiked; one of [Madiane, Mil]. Once again, it is a village/village contest between the two leading trains with a single vote on a third party. I think, once again, the Spiked likely split themselves up. Those who voted for Derrick, those who voted for myself, and one amongst the non-voters [Lipitor, Antari, Madiane]. Assuming I am correct about their being a Spiked voter on myself, that means Mil is Spiked. Based on my analysis of the first day’s votes, Mil is Spiked in a world where Jox is also Spiked. And of the non-voters across the two days, I am picking Lipitor as my prime suspect. They made an appearance just to say nothing, likely to avoid punishment from Aral, and had a villager vote on them the second day, which would motivate the Spiked to vote for villagers just in other votes piled up on Lipitor. Var stood up, and went to the town square, where he summarized all his thoughts and notes to the best of his ability. When he was done, he added more of his thoughts: ”I had already suspected Mil a fair amount. I feel my analysis is reasonable, and can see how Jox’s behavior in that first day could have been with the intent of privately searching for allomancers dangerous to the Spiked’s cause. Which leaves me accusing Mil, Jox, and Lipitor as being Spiked. There is a chance there is a fourth wild card that I missed in my analysis, but I put forward the motion that we vote for one of my three suspects. My vote today shall be for Jox, as I feel his alignment would give us the most information. ”Everyone, I implore you to speak your minds. Even those of you whom I have accused. We are in dangerous territory right now, and the more we talk, the more we are likely to find the Spiked. We need all the help we can get.” [ @A Jo in the Bush @KaladinsSenseOfHumorSpren @KelsierApologist @Kasimir @|TJ| @TwinStorm @Biplet @ThatOneWorldhopper @Hoid Slayer ] [EDIT: @Araris Valerian I for some reason originally put my vote in green lol]

@Hoid Slayer “Kéamen,” Var said, “I appreciate you putting the effort in and placing a vote for me, but it is night! Everyone is sleeping! We cast votes for executions during the day in this city. We aren’t barbarians.” Var chuckled at that.

Var was perturbed. He had been certain Derrick was Spiked. Well, in a sense, he was. Just not the kind Var had assumed. That made things quite concerning. Who were the Spiked, if Derrick had not been one? Clearly the Spiked felt little danger thus far. They had been willing to let the village duke it out over himself and Derrick. That meant the Spiked were almost certainly not among those who had been voted on thus far. Var would have to revise his opinion of Kéamen. Astrid would soon be taken care of, if she didn’t show up. Lipitor had made an appearance, but there was little Var could make sense of from the man. That left Var with the following suspects: Jox, Mil, Josha, Teal, Keldorn, Fox, Antari, and Madiane. Var was certain at least one of the voters on himself had to be Spiked. Obviously not Derrick, who had clearly just been voting in self-preservation, so whom? Neither of Mil or Teal had done much of substance, but Mil had done a little bit more. Var suspected most of the Spiked were likely laying low, so Teal would be his choice in that pool. “If a friendly Coinshot is out there,” Var said to no one in particular, “I think Teal would be a great choice for a murder victim.” He would have to think more about the voters on himself (one of them was likely a Spiked) and the non-voters (one of which was also likely a Spiked), but for now he needed rest.

“Sorry, Jox,” Var said. “I didn’t hear you because of the madness. [read: I saw your post after I sent mine]”

“And with that, we have a tie,” Var said. “I’m okay with that if it means I survive, but I’d prefer someone to die. Even if that does mean I have to die. @A Jo in the Bush Jox, are you willing to cast your vote for Derrick? Or at least remove your vote from myself? Either one will ensure we do not have a tie.”

“I’m suspicious of Kéamen,” Var said. “If got a third person to vote with us, such as @Biplet, we could swing the vote into Kéamen. I’d prefer John, but I also prefer anyone else dying over myself, so I’ll take what I can get.”

“Well,” Var said, “since I am seemingly going to be executed before the day is out, I guess I must lay out my final suspicions. With all these new faces, it has been somewhat difficult to keep track of what has been going on. But I think it is highly likely that at least one of my voters is a killer. I’m leaning most towards John, despite the recent retraction of his vote. I also suspect Fox and Kéamen. If taking out those three does not weed out all the killers, then look at Mil and Teal next. For now, I’ve got a job to do. Cleaning up all of the crem you lot have left me.”

“Don’t feel bad speaking for me, Fox,” Var said. “You managed to say what I could not make my stupid silly brain put into words. It’s the madness, you see. ”I am really beginning to suspect that there is at least one killer amongst the voters on me. Assuming I am executed, my first suggestion would be to go for John/Derrick next. Then Mil or Teal. I actually feel pretty solid about Jox being innocent, just misguided. Mostly. I mostly trust him because I do not think a killer would get so involved with the death of a villager, unless the runner up train (in this case Derrick) was also a killer with Jox. One would think Jox, based on his ancestors’ recent experience, would know not to connect himself so strongly to a teammate so early.”