Frozen Mint

The madness both terrifies and intrigues.

Holy frick I'm going to say this really quickly and then regret it. I'll sign up as Riza.

I know you wanted to lynch Sheep. But I want to know why you were so determined to lynch Sheep over Alex, because you never gave an explanation for that. Obviously we know now that Sheep is an elim and Alex was innocent. But what had you so convinced before? Color me surprised.

Taking a quick tally, then heading off to bed. Alex (4): Bard, Meta, luckat, Sheep, Doc Sheep (1): Alex, Frozen Mint, Straw, Magestar So Magestar said that he'd cancel votes not on Sheep. I'm going to assume that's the explanation for the cancelled vote on Alex (in which case, we really need an explanation as to why Magestar did not want Sheep lynched) and also the explanation for why the elims cancelled three votes on Sheep instead of one. They were playing it safe. But they also exposed one of their own, unless they just had loads of free actions to mess with us. So guess we found the rabbit holder.

Actually, Lopen PMed me about a breath and items information exchange as well. I wouldn't be surprised if he was trying to fish information out of all the newbies.

Okay, so first off, Sheep, the fact that the only person you have an elim read on is the same as the person who is most likely to be lynched (not including yourself) suddenly makes you a lot more suspicious. It's like you're trying to save yourself while not making much of a fuss. If you're an elim, saying that you have an elim read on elims might hurt your own and saying that you have an elim read on villagers makes you suspicious and risks exposing you for what you really are. And it looks like you're just avoiding that. Thus, I am changing my vote from Alex to Sheep. Sheep's explanation of why he wasn't as active later on is fair. He was slightly suspicious, but what that conveyed to me is that we should lynch him if we don't have a better alternative. I thought Alex was a better alternative, because he's been trying harder to stay under the radar, while suddenly posting a random comment to try to come off as village. At least Sheep was active earlier. But now I feel like we have more evidence against Sheep than we did before. (If I had to guess, Magestar, you will now interpret this as me trying to look like a villager by being appeasing and because you said my vote on Alex made me look like an eliminator, and I'm trying to cover myself up. I could be wrong, but if I'm not, I'm just saying I called it ) I would like to know this as well. Elim or not, rationally this is a good point.

I'm going to vote for Alex. His comment about Lopen was strange, and while I think Sheep's acted kind of strangely, he's not suspicious enough for me to vote on yet. If need be, I'll change my vote to the majority before turnover.

damnation. Well isn't that embarrassing. :/ I need to pay closer attention.

In hindsight, I feel like I was wrong to vote on Magestar on that first day, but if I ever felt kind of bad about that, I definitely don't anymore. On a scale of most suspicious to least, right now I have PK, Meta, Magestar (neutral), Doc, Bard, and luckat (I feel pretty confident that these last two are village). I've been having a really bad feeling about PK since almost the start of the game. I'd note that he encouraged us to lynch blindly on day 1 (which he admitted was a bad idea on day 2), and he was very confident that the vote manipulation made Mark guilty and couldn't have been a set up by the elims.

I'll add my vote for Lopen, because I agree he's the most suspicious right now. It would be nice if I could add something instead of bandwagoning, but gah, I'm really confused right now. I don't really have any new analysis. The only thing I'll bring up is that I think Doc is innocent, because he was in Ecth's riddle (I posted the whole explanation for that during the previous night).

I assume that they didn't have enough Awakened Clothing.

Magestar, if you're going to be this determined to lynch, I really wish you'd give some sort of reasoning. I don't think we should completely discount "bad feelings" we have about people, but you've gone after me for a while now with no real reason. We need to figure out the intention of the riddle. I'm going to make a few assumptions: 1) The elims knew we'd solve the riddle. 2) The elims knew that we wouldn't trust the answer, because they won't give up one of their own. 3) The elims knew that we wouldn't trust that those cleared by the riddle are necessarily innocent. Again, why would we trust information from a Returned? 4) The elims have a strong, strategic motive behind posting the riddle, and didn't decide to share it mostly to watch us go in circles for fun. TBH I'm just adding this in because if this riddle was for their entertainment, there's no way I can analyze it. It's possible that Doctor is a Returned, and that the elims are using reverse psychology ("they'll never think that a Returned will reveal one of their own"). I find this unlikely, because I don't see any reason they have to put Doc in the spotlight. Practically no one's suspected him (except Ecth on day 1 for vague reasons). So why go out of their way to show us that he's innocent? Or mention him at all? They could be trying making everyone else in the riddle look suspicious. If a Returned says that someone is innocent, then maybe they're Returned? But this is too simple. Too easy to figure out. This is going to get really hard to explain, but I'm gonna try... They know that we don't trust the riddle, and I'm guessing they knew that we would expect them to know that we won't trust the riddle. It's such a straightforward way of turning people against each other. The elims say someone is innocent, so they must be guilty! It's too easy to see through, and I think the elims give the village more credit than that. Everyone in the riddle could be innocent, and the Returned are trying to redirect conversation towards them. This is a more subtle way of keeping the focus off of themselves. Out of all the possibilities, this makes the most sense to me.

I don't think that we should lynch Mark. It's possible that he was saved, because he was holding valuable items or a lot of breath. But that would mean that the eliminators gave Mark a very important role. Why would you have one eliminator fishing for information and stealing breath? Isn't it risky to put all your eggs in one basket? I would've thought that the one stealing breath would lie low while someone else would try to extract information from other players. It's more likely that the Returned are setting us up to lynch another villager. Luckat makes a solid argument, so I'll add my vote for Ecthelion. If the majority want to lynch someone else by the end of the day, I'll change my vote to whoever that is.

The benefit to them is that we'd waste the next day's lynch on killing a villager.

Oh oops. Sorry about that.

Er, correct me if I'm misunderstanding you. I might be reading your comment wrong. I think villagers would want more breath (for themselves, of course). More breath means more options for awakening. If you invest a lot of breath in awakening, then you have more useful objects plus if the Returned do steal your breath, they'll only get the breath you currently hold, which doesn't include the breath you've invested in awakening. Some considerations: I wasn't going to share these, since I'm not ready to accuse anyone yet, but I figured that it's better to have my thoughts out in the open where everyone can discuss them and people can defend themselves. First, there's Bard. I keep thinking of his plan on day one. It's very possible that he was just trying to help the village, but it's also possible that he posted that plan knowing that it had holes which could benefit the eliminators. He seems to be a very experienced player, and the holes in his plan were pretty big. Just a slight concern, but a concern nonetheless. I'll admit that this is bordering on a reach though. Conq jumped on Ecth very quickly. Ecth could be a Potential Returned, but it's just as likely that he won the lottery. It wouldn't have been a big deal if Conq didn't place a vote, but he did. So I suggest we keep an eye on him. The weird thing is that I would've thought an eliminator would try to be more convincing when framing someone, being more careful so as to not be thought of as just trying to kill people off. Was Conq framing someone he knew was innocent? It's a possibility to keep in mind. Then there's this: 1) I would assume the Returned would awaken objects, probably a lifeless rabbit if they have loads of breath, so a breath scanner wouldn't work. Could Conq have been trying to get villagers to waste their night actions on a strategy that isn't the best? 2) As Sheep pointed out, "eventually" is a problem here. Using this strategy could buy the elims some time until it's too late for the village. A mistake? Intentional misleading?? I think Ecth is innocent. His confusion about knowing whether one is a Potential Return struck me as genuine. He could have been faking that, but my gut says he wasn't. I'm on the fence about Mark's defense. It does feel a tad... accommodating? There's this: But mostly this: It's almost like he's trying too hard not to be the bad guy. But considering all the PM's he's sent around, he seems to be really putting himself out there. In my mind, that's not something an eliminator would do. Can people who've played with Mark before say if he's normally more willing to take risks? Because those PM's (the amount, the open looking for information, the "maybe I have this much breath but I ain't telling you") seem like very risky moves for an eliminator. Lastly, I'm really concerned about how quiet its been. I feel bad saying this, because I haven't exactly been one of the most vocal players. And I know that I'm not the only new player and how intimidating it can be. But it's almost the end of day 2, and it's really hard to analyze posts when there aren't many of them. I keep imagining that some of the Returned are just staying quiet to avoid suspicion while being active in their own doc, seeing as people who speak less are generally being voted on less. I think that we should start calling out the people who don't seem to be contributing by tagging them and voting for them to draw them out. What do you guys think?

You declared that your breath was stolen on day 1. You wouldn't have known that you were a Potential Returned until night 1, so you would have discovered it after the fact. To be clear, I don't think that you're a Potential Returned right now, but your argument doesn't work to defend you.

The suspicions that backed up my vote on day 1 were weak. But like I said in that post, I decided to vote for someone because I thought lynching would help us gather information. My suspicions of you were weak, but they were stronger than my suspicions of anyone else. As for not being as active, this is my first game. I'm trying to contribute, but I'm also hesitant since I don't know the playing field well.

Who's fez, Elb?

I said before that I didn't think we had enough evidence yet to call anyone out, and I still think that, but Paranoid King makes a good point. Not doing anything is just going to help the eliminators. Based on what we do have, I'm going to vote for Magestar, mainly because he missed that Ecthelion's breath was stolen earlier. I'm on the fence about Bugsy. I don't find the talk of breath count strange. Eight breaths is a lot. You can do some substantial awakening with that. Construing that someone having that much breath at the get go as odd? Fair enough. The thing that struck me is that Bugsy brought up his own breath count. Why would you want to reveal that at this point? As for everything else against him, it's more plausible that his mistakes were just mistakes, instead of an eliminator tactic IMO. I don't really see how Doctor is suspicious either. Due to loads of RL stuff coming up suddenly, I'm pretty busy this week. I'll do my best to stay active. But here's a heads up in case I disappear for a bit.

Agree with the above. I don't think there's enough information to warrant calling anyone suspicious yet, but that may be because I'm new and not familiar with everyone's playing styles. Also, if no one minds answering a newbie question, what does WGG stand for?

*she Huh I didn't know you could see what other users are doing on this site. Interesting. It's pretty late for me so I'll check back in the morning.

I'll join as Shivawn. I might make a character history later.