Stick.
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Everything posted by Stick.
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Yup - I think village!Ash probably would've voted for self-pres like both Striker and Pyro did, whereas elims!Ash can rely on their teammates to lead the exe away from them. Ash for now Alright so I went and reread all of Gears' posts, and well like a number of people have pointed out, I see an interesting lack of actual participation and more of just describing the current situation of the game From Day 1, their first post is RP + Role analysis, most of which written pre-game - NAI The second post explains the confusion around first post, defends Striker, says they don’t really have a read on Striker, and expresses village reads on Books and myself - both Striker and Books are cleared villagers, and I know that I’m a villager, so to me this post is basically Gears expressing positive opinions on villagers. Kind of sus. In the third post they vote for Books for the same reason everyone else did, Striker, Ventyl, Fifth, and I do not seem suspicious, TUO does seem suspicious, Maill and Tani are ‘noted’ - note that while Gears does provide plenty of reads here, none of them are supported by any kind of reasoning The fourth post explains their vote on Books a little better and clears up some stuff for Striker regarding how the back-and-forth between illwei and Quinn was normal and basically NAI, and reassures Bip to vote the way she wants to. This post honestly just looks village to me. At this point I got lazy and stopped taking notes on every post, but instead just read through them and noted down things that stood out This post from D2 is interesting because they say that they do not agree with the Striker exe, and do not necessarily agree with the Ash exe either. Says they’d probably abstain from voting because they have no suspicions. My problem with this post is that they are just stating what’s going on in-thread, not too proactive From the post from Night 2 Here, they still don’t have any suspicions, and ask people to provide reasoning for executing striker - they don’t really ever provide any reads of their own apart from those during D1 Now a combination of all of these things would normally be super suspicious to me, but I'm not voting on @Gears just yet because they've mentioned in several of these posts how they have RL commitments that have restricted them from spending too much time on the game - which is understandable. It does render most of these things NAI, though, which is sad. edit: I do not know why all the links are in different colours, im sorry lol it does look ugly
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She told us what she rolled D1? I just went back to the PM and I can't find it? The PM group was created on Tuesday (around 2 pm my time to be specific), which would've been during D2. Prior to this, I didn't have a PM with Quinn and my PM with Tani was kinda OOG stuff and we hadn't talked roles or even suspicions much. I did have a PM with Maill and I did express my suspicions regarding Tani (the same ones I mentioned in-thread D1), but he seemed to have a village read on her and we just sort of left it there until the group PM. And Tani's Mistborn claim in the group PM is what led me to read her village (because I dont see a first-timer elim just role-claiming such an important role like that out of the blue? Like they would have some sort of guidance/advice from their teammates I'd think). At this instance, iirc, I posted in-thread something along the lines of "due to PM things I believe Tani's 80% village" or something like that.
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ooh okay, I guess I misunderstood your post - I thought you meant that you were voting Ash based on something exclusively discussed with Striker on PM that you can't reveal to the thread. Makes sense. illwei I think they're all village - a couple of hours ago I might've said I'm sorta suspicious of Maill, but now I'm getting increasingly convinced that every one of Tani, Quinn, Maill, illwei, and Mat are villagers. I think if an elim was involved here, this whole thing would've been managed (for lack of a better word) better. I EDIT: dont think Tani ever revealed this to the group (maybe to Maill/Quinn separately) but interestingly enough she revealed to the group what she rolled today. I dont see an elim revealing this to a group that isnt really working together anymore so I'm getting village vibes from that
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I’d like to reiterate that we didn’t mean to exclude anyone - you have to keep in mind that the PM wasn’t a tight trust group thing, each of us was suspicious of one another other too. So this little interaction (for me at least) was to serve as a way for me to get a proper read on these three players. The way elims react to things in group PMs with a bunch of people they think trust them completely is different to how an elim reacts to things publicly, in-thread. If we had gone through with the Illwei kill, that would’ve been achieved. As it stands, though, I’m village reading both Tani and Quinn because of how they reacted to their suspicions of Maill (i.e. changing the kill, telling illwei/Mat, changing the kill again, etc). Maill I was never so sure about, and while I refrained from actively doing something about it since I wanted to wait for illwei’s flip first, I did suspect Maill to some extent - ask @Biplet for confirmation on this. I see that everyone’s main problem is with the Striker exe (btw, no one told me we weren’t using the term lynch anymore! I just happened to be going through the AG thread and stumbled upon this in the rules) - and fair, the way Quinn put it does look like we decided on a target and then it just happened. But I’ll remind you that I did try to lead an exe on Ash (still suspicious of them btw), and it didn’t really take off, but that was my main opinion for the exe. Paraphrasing from the PM group, the reason we believed Striker would be a good exe was because it would serve as a good info exe, given that there was so much suspicion and votes on him already. In my vote post I explained this exact reason - so there isn’t much we held off from the public/the thread? As far as the exe goes we put our reasonings out there, so it’s just our roles/our nightly actions that we didn’t reveal to the thread. I’ll admit I didn’t have much of a case xD I mostly just voted on you to get info on Maill. Although a thing that I am curious about is why you revealed the fact that you knew of our plan to kill you to Maill and Quinn? Did Tani not tell you that she had Changed the target to Maill? And if she had told you, would you still have revealed it to Quinn? Also @Araris Valerian I was wondering if you could explain your vote on Ash last cycle? Now that Striker’s dead and cleared, could you explain your reasoning? (I imagine Striker had something to do with it because you mentioned something about PMs with him being a reason for that vote). Here’s a possible elim list according to me: Gears Ash/TJ Devo Illwei/Maill Windrunner Burnt Daisy I don’t think Ash/TJ or Illwei/Maill are e/e, which is why they’re written that way. edit: sometime soon I’ll write a post outlining a proper case against Illwei/ or maybe some other target if I come to realise I don’t want Illwei dead after all
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There’s no way all four of us are elims That would be wild I can confirm this - there were 8 votes on striker already when I added mine
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No reason, I suppose? :-P When I’m an elim, the D1 exe is where I just put my vote anywhere at all (unless there’s a teammate on the line). We discussed our suspicions in the group, yes, but we still provided the same reasoning for the votes in thread too. So everything said about striker in the group was stated in thread with our votes as well.
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my thoughts exactly
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Illwei If illwei flips village I am 99% convinced that Maill is evil
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Holy moly PM group shenanigans no longer a secret?? We should’ve just gone with the Illwei kill xD Ouch I thought we had this trust thing going on
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Looking at the full player list, here are the people I've got tentative village reads (or at least, somewhat-village reads) on, in no particular order: Mat, Quinn, TUO, Fifth, Dannex, Stink, Bip, Tani, Bard, Maill, Pyro (this one's a gut read), Reading (this one's on thin ice) By PoE, I'm left with these people: Gears, Araris, Elan, Ash, TJ, illwei, Devo, Exp, Windrunner, Burnt, Daisy That's 11 people, so I need to cut the list down by 4 to 5 people >> let me know if I've missed anyone The bolded players haven't been talking much, so I don't know if I can really remove them from the list any time soon @Daisy has yet to speak I'll probably write a much bigger post during the day including my reasoning for the above reads. I might probably revise the list depending on the night kill(s).
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A vote was rioted on to Araris I'm guessing this was probably just someone attempting to prove their role to a PM contact
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Yikes. Sorry Striker. Lol, what was the purpose of Soothing Experience's vote? xD Very random. Anyway uh I'll have more to say soon ------------------------------------------ Sunny felt sad vibes surrounding everything and everyone. She decided she must introduce the townsfolk to a different kind of cake they had probably never seen or heard of before. (image in spoiler) This was a very unique cake to the residents of Fallion's Tears, or even to the whole of Scadrial, Sunny imagined. But it was a good cake. It will always be the best cake.
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oh my goodness gracious Thank you xDD
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Oh oops Striker(9): Matrim's Dice, The Windrunner Supreme, Maill, Quinn, Fifth, Tani, Bippy, Pyro, Stick Ashbringer(2): Young Bard, Stick TUO(1): Ash Pyro(5): Araris, Illwei, Striker, Devo, TJ Maill(1): Experience There we go...inb4 more errors xD
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Striker(8): Matrim's Dice, The Windrunner Supreme, Maill, Quinn, Fifth, Tani, Bippy, Pyro Ashbringer(2): Young Bard, Stick Gears(1): TJ TUO(1): Ash Pyro(5): Araris, Illwei, Striker, Devo, TJ Maill(1): Experience My vote's sitting there kinda useless right now so uh. I never really got to analyse Striker's posts in depth, but I did go and reread them and between Pyro and Striker I think I'd prefer Striker to be lynched because I think his flip provides a lot more information for the village to look into, plus I don't know if I'm particularly suspicious of Pyro - I'm sort of gut-reading them village. Ashbringer Striker Edit: the cake is in the oven
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Aight then! Let's look at @Young Bard first: At this point in D1 the votes were pretty spread out: Gears(1): Striker Striker(2): Pyro, Mat Stick(1): illwei Quinn(1): Dannex The vote itself seems pretty NAI given the state of the vote distributions at the time with everyone throwing votes around everywhere (expected, on D1), but the reasoning is kinda interesting because Mat had cast his vote on Striker literally 2 minutes after Pyro, soon followed by Quinn too. But I think his justification makes a lot of sense from a villager's perspective, so I'll let it slide. xD I'm assuming you meant Reading here in the bolded part but This post doesn't seem elim to me at all because the votes before Bard's were 4-5 between Reading and Books and given the vote manips and everything, this vote may as well have been the swing vote, which is a risky move to make as an elim. Not impossible, but unlikely imo. I mostly agree with this. I hadn't even considered Ash yet because honestly there's so many players here I haven't played with before so they kinda got blurred together in my mind so thanks for bringing them up! I will now be looking closer at Ash. Smooth transition eh? (Overall tentative village read on Bard) Their first post was RP and the second was just a single comment about how there are votes being casted - pretty NAI. Their third post talked about how Ventyl has role-claimed in-thread in past games, and thus Ventyl doing so now is NAI. This was followed by a very IKYK paragraph: Which, uh, I'm not quite sure what to make of. Extremely NAI, probably. Their next post commented on guessing the elim team distribution, and the content of the post - well I agree with what it says, but it kinda sticks out how the post covers almost every possible combination of an elim team and talks about how everything is likely which...I don't know. It seems like they wanted to sound as unbiased as possible, and I mean it worked. I didn't think much of the post when I first read it because I agree with the stuff that it says in general, but the way it's written out is just kinda odd bc it almost looks like they're going around in circles. Then there's that big post, where they basically summarised what everyone had done in the turn (that was helpful - thanks! ). The only actual thoughts and/or reads in that post were these: And they ended up voting...Reading xD In the post all they really said about Reading was: Which doesn't really explain the vote xD Here they explain that it's essentially just a random vote, and that they would prevent a tie if it comes down to it (which it did, and they followed through on this, changing their vote to Books). I'm curious though, why didn't you vote for TJ, who (as far as I could tell) was the only player you expressed actual suspicion on in the post? @Ashbringer I mean cuz, the vote was meant to be tentative anyway like you admitted yourself, so why not vote on somebody you're actually suspicious of? First post during the night turn comments on the vote manips - NAI stuff. Second night post is interesting: In my opinion this isn't a reason convincing enough, mainly because 1) They did not mention this at all in their reads post, and 2) They admit that there's other players that are also showing similar patterns So...why Reading? I still don't completely understand Then there's another post commenting on the vote manip possibilities....NAI. Then they post about how everyone's focusing too much on the vote manips, which is true, but then they say this: Just like that post about the elim team distribution, what rubs me the wrong way is how they present one possibility, and then immediately follow it with another possibility that directly opposes the first? I mean yes both of them make sense but it just comes off as though they don't want to commit to one opinion, and are trying really hard to play it safe. Then this post is very much NAI, but interestingly they hint at being vanilla, which they later clarify to be not really a claim. Don't like the general vibes of that whole thing xD Interestingly, Ash was the first player to post D2, and did not comment on the NK or the Ventyl kill until later on. As opposed to, let's say, Mat, whose comment about how the Ventyl kill might be the NK makes me read them village, (albeit not to a great extent or anything because I have certainly feigned confusion around these things as an elim). The fact that Ash only said anything about the kills doesn't sit well with me, and the way they claimed to not know about the fact that they kills are distinguished in the write-up is also kinda just awkward. Anyway wow that took a lot of time Ashbringer I guess for now ...My main intention for this post was to look at Striker's posts >> SOON (TM) that then. edit: would just like to add that based on our PMs I think Tani's village like 75%
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If there's several village lurchers, I would've expected Ventyl to be safe tonight
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I don't think we should assume the Ventyl kill was from a village coinshot - it might've been from an elim Mistborn (or an elim coinshot, but I don't think that's likely to exist). From @TJ Shade's post from the night thread, Ah, okay. Just to reiterate, I don't think many elims hopped on the Books train. Fair enough edit: ninjad by pyro saying the same thing lol
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wow these last two pages of the thread contain absolutely nothing xD When I voted there was a 3/3 tie between Books and Reading, so I wouldn't really say that it was the very end nor that it was obvious that Books was gonna die This doesn't make me look great, but I don't regret voting Books because if I hadn't, I would've just continued being suspicious of them in these subsequent cycles. As far as I remember, Devotary just always votes last-minute don't they? So I'd say it's completely NAI. But...I think we share the same view though? What I said was I don't believe the manips have anything to do with Reading's alignment as it could've been villagers just wanting to save them from the lynch for whatever reasons, or it could've been elims trying to frame them. Either way it doesn't make Reading lock-elim or even suspicious. Rereading last turn's thread...I don't think I'm too suspicious of most of the people that voted Books. I think almost none of the votes on Books were elim (especially if my village read on Reading is correct), with the exceptions maybe being Striker and TJ. I'm gonna take a closer look at all of Striker's posts tomorrow during the day turn. TJ voted for Books exactly 4 minutes before end-of-turn, and with 8 votes on Books already. Does seem redundant from both a villager's and an elim's point of view, but they had expressed suspicion of Books prior to this, in this post, when there was a 5/4 split between Books and Reading. @TJ Shade was there a reason you waited to cast your vote?
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I don't think this makes Reading look bad at all - it's pretty NAI for Reading I think. If I were an elim with vote manips and I had the opportunity to mess up some votes here and there to make a villager look bad while also simultaneously lynching another villager, I would definitely do it. Also, the soothes used on Reading's votes could may as well just be villagers attempting to save Reading, so I think this is mostly just NAI as far as Reading's alignment is concerned. HOwever I still think Reading is village. Off the top of my head, people active near end-of-turn were Ash, TJ, Books, Bard, Mat, STINK, Devotary, Quinn and myself. Since the votes were already kinda really close before though, the vote manip orders could've just been placed prior to the votes cast near end-of-turn. In fact that would seem to be more likely, because if the vote manip peeps were actually active during end-of-turn, I don't think they would have gone ahead with these manips, seeing as the votes on Books did largely outnumber Reading's. So there was little point in the manips.
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I mean they're the top two lynch candidates so Was gonna add some reading/books pun here but forgot what it was >> You could always start a vote on another person and see if it takes off in the next two hours? I think they said they've never played mafia online before, so I'm guessing they've played irl mafia Nice
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Vote count: Reading (4): Araris, Fifth, Ash, Illwei Striker (2): Pyro, Mat Stick (1): Exp Illwei (1): Maill Pyro (1): Bard Books (5): Gears, Quinn, Ventyl, Stick, Striker This is cool. Now to see what vote manip shenanigans occur. edit: I think we could probably end up with no lynch today as a result of a tie, if the vote manips line up that way. So that's slightly worrying.
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It is almost 12 pm now, and this post was made by half-asleep, 7am!Stick so now I've returned to add some stuff. Biplet: Their general confusion with the vote seems genuine enough to point towards village Definitely make decisions based on your own thoughts! Not saying that illwei is an elim, but due to the nature of this game a lot of people are gonna wanna sway your decision especially if they don't share your alignment, so it's good to just follow your own gut sometimes. :] Speaking of illwei... I think that's precisely why I don't have a read on you xD Kinda super duper confused and conflicted. Maybe I'll come back and reread all your posts after we've got our first flip xD Also wanna quickly add Ventyl to my village reads list; that role claim could for sure be coming from an elim but the fact that they have claimed to turn it off next turn to allow for scans seems village to me. Agree, it won't look too good for Mat, but I'm also not gonna go full on tunnel lynch mode on Mat if Books does flip elim. Definitely something to consider though. ...suddenly, of all things, this is what makes me question my vote xD What are the chances that a player is an elim 5 times outta 8 games? It's not impossible... :thonk: edit: it seems like I'll be lonely at rollover since everyone's going to bed D:
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Good morning 4 new pages Excellent So here are the reads I promised: Village: - Quinn: for reasons mentioned earlier - Dannex: for reasons mentioned earlier - Reading: despite being initially suspicious of Reading, after rereading their posts they seem genuine and I'm tentatively convinced they're village. One thing that stood out to me was how they were one of the first people to post right after the thread went up, and I can't say this applies to all but during my first few elim games I was never so quick to post, much less so about the elim team distribution. - Stink: Seems village in PM, I dont know lol - Elandera: very interesting new playstyle! I think she's village (but uncertain still) Elim: - FlyingBooks: talked about this before, and people have reiterated my reasons too - Tani: just the odd votes - Randby: might just be a new player being cautious by holding on to their vote for now and that's fine, but I'm definitely keeping an eye - Mat: their fixation on Striker is interesting, but what sets off alarms for me is: Opinion but no action, which could be elim!Mat attempting to distance themself from Books without actually shifting their vote. I think Books' flip could reveal quite a bit here I think. FlyingBooks here we go again - Experience: they posted a summary of everything that every person every posted (thanks!), in which they seemed to be pretty suspicious of Quinn, as Mat noted. They have posted twice since then, only one of which was AI, changing their read on Quinn and casting suspcion on Tani. Something about that whole thing seems off to me, but not enough so to warrant a vote (for now).
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I...wonder if this was the wisest choice I'm gonna turn in for the day - will cast a vote tomorrow with hopefully a list of reads as well
