Arraenae
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Off the top of my head, I'm a little suspicious of the people voting on Wilson, Jondesu and Mint (maybe more, if I've missed someone). I'm more suspicious of Jondesu because Mint PMed me saying she was suspicious of Wilson around last cycle, so it seems more organic.
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What's the Assuredness Movement? Sorry I haven't been very active today, I had a school-hosted panel about potential careers. Tomorrow, I'll start looking at more players, probably from the bottom of the playerlist up, unless I find someone more interesting to look at first. I think lynching people for a specific, repeated playstyle shouldn't be done, but we definitely should prod somebody if we find that person's playstyle to be repeatedly unhelpful. @Straw, if you want to poke vote people at the beginning of the cycle, maybe you could provide more analysis at the end of the cycle, maybe of the response to your pokevote? One pokevote by itself doesn't seem particularly useful, and it's low commitment enough that you should have time to do some other things, like analysis.
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Is it possible that the elim attack hit someone with a double life or was protected?
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11I feel like Wilson is playing more off-the-cuff than she would as an elim. She's acting more like a slightly trolly villager trying to have fun. To be fair, though, the last game I remember with an elim Wilson was AG3. Not very recent. EDIT: These players didn't post last night: Sheon, formerly of House Idris (Seonid) Locke, formerly of House Tekiel (Orlok Tsubodai) Straw (Straw) John (Shqueeves) Variel, ambitious and young (StrikerEZ) Pix (Lemonelon) Cyfna (Elbereth) Edguardo 'The Great', long on plans but short on money (Paranoid King) Sony Mira (frozen Mint) Rin (doc12) DarianHammersmith Droughtbringer Davus Nickel, formerly of House Izenry (Aonar Faileas) And these players didn't post at all last cycle: @Shqueeves @StrikerEZ @Doc12 @DarianHammersmith @Davus @Aonar Faileas Could you please give your thoughts on something game-related, such as what you think about Wilson? Or, if it turns out that something unexpected came up, or you just bit off more than you could chew with this game, could you please tell us? If you don't say anything, I've have to start assuming that you got eaten by a bear or abducted by aliens, and we don't want that. (To those of you who I've seen online but haven't posted or given a reason for your inactivity, shame on you. Say something inthread, please.) To all the people saying that they're suspicious of me for seeming more bloodthirsty, please look at QF25. My analysis there was pretty much of the same type, down to way I bold parts of the first sentence. I'm analyzing this way because it forces me to come to a decision about each player. Previously, I'd be thinking something like "oh they could be this...but that...and that too... but then this...and this... and more this..." Writing helps me think, so looking through a player's posts and then making a decision about them requires that I pay attention to them, because I don't want to be wrong. This game, I've been picking players who either really stood out to me or have been the forefront of discussion. In this case, those people are players that already have some suspicion. And then, if I find them suspicious, I push for their lynch. Why? Because the village wins when all the elims are dead. And I like catching elims. I like lynching them even more. When I find someone who I think is an elim, I want them dead. Don't you?
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...I'm not the Seer.
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That night, Armina left the meeting room late, after everyone else. She returned to her floor, pausing by Quintus's door to jam the lock so it would stay shut, and then shut herself in her office. According to the skaa theiving crews back in Luthadel, the ventilation system of Steel Ministry buildings ran everywhere, and were large enough to hold a small, determined (if uncomfortable) person. Tonight, Armina would test that theory. Her room had a small vent bordered by floorboards, which she'd already practiced quickly pulling up and putting back. This time, when Armina opened the floorboards up, she stepped into the shaft and pulled the floorboards and vent opening closed abover her. It was tight. Uncomfortably tight, but Armina still had room to pull herself forwards on her elbows. She took a deep breath and then set off. She got lost. More than once. She circled by Jaina's office multiple times (what was she doing with that panda?), passed Eobard's empty room (maybe a second base of operations?), even got out to poke around Waern's office as he snored obliviously on (he really ought not to leave such material out in the open). When Waern almost seemed to wake up, she rushed back into the shaft -- and breathed a sigh of relief when he snorted his way deeper into sleep. Finally, she reached a shaft that passed under Quintus's office. She took a quick peak. He seemed to be mostly unaware of his surroundings. Perfect. Armina took out a small bundle she had prepared, which had the Tekiel house crest embossed on it. Armina lit it on fire and scrambled to get away. Soon, the smoke would rise out of the vent and hopefully choke out Quintus. Armina didn't plan on being anywhere nearby when the smoke overtook him. @Jondesu
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Well. Yay, my read was right?
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@little wilson, I looked at PK first because when I asked why you voted on him, you said his post agreeing with Orlok made you super suspicious, so I decided to start with him. I could have waited until the Day to post it, but I don't have your reservations about posting at night and the thread was dead/OOG.
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Ugh, I had an idea that that tinfoil was stupid and I'd attract suspicion for it. Only realized that on the toilet this morning, unfortunately. Someone saying that they scanned PK doesn't necessarily mean that they scanned him just now, and he makes a lot of sense as a scan. Wilson, I was going to elim/flip flop NAI read Sart until his post this thread, if that means anything to you. Then he posted something really villagery, so it tipped the scales back toward village.
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Okay, I'm not sure if this is even worth mentioning, but I have a tinfoil of a tionfoil that the Seeker could be PK's convert claiming to have scanned PK. It makes sense for a real Seeker to have scanned him, but the timing of this announcement is rather convenient for PK. >.>
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Wait, where did Steeldancer say that?
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Continuation of my previous Sart post I think Sart is NAI-leaning-village as of D3. D2, he votes on Joe, who already has a vote on him. It's consistent with his previous actions, where he seems really eager to get something going. On the other hand, though, it seems like he rather arbitrarily picked someone to die without caring who it was, which seems more like how an elim would feel than a villager. NAI leaning elim. N2 I agree with Wilson, Sart's post here sounds really off. It sounds kind of like he's justifying Joe's death or explaining why it's not so bad in an attempt to get less blame, maybe. It still has this uncaring feeling. Elim. D3 Sart's explanation of why he picked Joe feels really, really good. It fits the feeling of a bored villager who wanted some action, even if it was detrimental to the village. His explanation of his PoE for who he was going to vote for feels earnest. His repeat vote on Orlok feels less good, a little like a slight tunnel (Orlok did give a pretty good reason for why he was less active D2, which seems like it would extend to D3 too.) If I had to peg this one way or another, think an elim would probably choose a better target, especially since Orlok already gave a reason for his lower activity. Sart's suspicion of me is NAI, I suppose, because normally I give a lot of people bad gut reads. >.> Nothing I can do about it, I think. Overall, Sart's posts are NAI-maybe-leaning-elim, with this big dollop of villageriness at the end, which adds up to be NAI-leaning-slightly-village. I'd rather not lynch Sart now because he's one of the more active players and this game already seems kind of dead (though actual discussion seems to be picking up this game, yay!). I'll have to rake another look at him later. @Jondesu, thanks for saying I'm active? There's really nothing I can say about metareasoning, except that I know I'm village, which counts for nothing. Also, how attatched is Quintus to his office? Armina listened to the others talk from the other side of the room, unable to see what was going on. Every time she tried to look, the heads of the other Obligators blocked her way, and here, there was no convenient ledge to stand on so she could look into the crowd. Armina silently glared at Quintus, who still hadn't moved. She fingered the set of lockpicks buried in her pocket. She needed a way to make him late to the next meeting. Or just have him go missing. That worked too.
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I think Sart is TBD, will conclude after I finish eating lunch. D1 In Sart's first post, he suggests an early on CC, which sounds nice but is something that I disagree with on principle. In a LG, it's extrwmely difficult to know who's going to be active and who isn't D1. Sometimes you can draw people into being more active by PMing them, but that takes some time. Othertimes somebody might just be in a timezone that's not very convenient for this game (Pretty sure that's the case for a lot of Australians, for example). If you lynch them D1, by the time they come online, the players originally voting on them might not be on to retract their votes. Tangent aside, Sart contradicts himself in his post. He says that the Seer will tend to convert active players, so therefore we should...lynch inactive players? There's a disconnect here, unless Sart wants to force the Seer to convert active players through this. Still, he feels like he's trying to be helpful. There's no advantage for an elim to off totally inactive players, since Wyrm already said that inactive villagers don't count towards the elims' win con. Then Sart votes on Doc. N1 Sart jokes around. NAI. D2 Sart says that activity levels have been horrendously low (I agree). He votes on Orlok because he's less active and because it's possible that Wyrm asked Orlok to close the thread from the elim doc. This reasoning sounds kind of weak. After Orlok responds, Sart takes his vote off and puts another vote on Arinian for the CC. At least he's being consistent. Sart makes a vote tally and pings a bunch of people. Then he asks if people think he should continue pinging those who've looked at the thread but not posted. I'm not sure how to feel about this. Sart feels like a bored villager trying to drum up action, but his discussion question is among the more useless varieties of dicussion questions there are and seem like something an elim could say to score easy contribution points. Lunch break, will come back to finish looking at Sart. Ping me if I don't.
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@Paranoid King Okay, I reread your post and realized that it didn't say what I thought it said. >.< I suppose what you said makes sense. My gut still doesn't like you, but the Aman thing doesn't seem nearly as suspicious now. PK. They gathered to discuss who they thought the spy was. Again. As usual, Prelan Waern left them alone to come to a conclusion. Armina slipped into the room, ready to watch another day of talking that would probably end with another person getting tortured. Maybe today she would accuse Locke. After all, a few people had already voiced wariness of him, and even if some of them had quickly recanted their statements, the seeds of suspicion had already been planted. Armina permitted herself a small smile over the thought of Locke being broken and gibbering from torture. Served him right for humiliating Armina in front of the Prelan. Before Armina could reach her corner, she stopped. Someone else was already there. Quintus, she thought his name was. He'd stolen her watching spot. Armina glared at him, then turned and walked off to find another good place to lurk. He'd better not be there after their noon break, for his own good. @Jondesu, do you want to RP?
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PK, for the reasons that I stated last night.
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What did I ever do to your gut to make it hate me so much?
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As of N2, I think Paranoid King is probably the Seer, if it's not Mint. D1, his first post is one agreeing with Orlok. He says that Aman is extremely likely to get converted, but just leaves things like that and votes on Doc for no reason. His next post, he votes on Aman, saying that he's either the Seer or going to be a Convert soon. Consistent with his first post, at least. I still feel like Aman's gambit made him an easy D1 lynch. D2, he says that he thought "Aman had an evil plan to stay alive until he made three converts". This doesn't match up with his previous post, where PK said he thought Aman was the Seer or a Convert-to-be. It's a little suspicious. If PK thought about it and decided that the chance of Aman being the Seer was higher than of being a CTB, he didn't make any indication of it inthread. Then he pokevotes Straw. In his next post D2, PK looks at people based off of their D1 lynch policy. He says that the Seer is probably someone who wanted a no-lynch. Then he votes on Jondesu. PK seems really vote-happy. PK says in his experience, villagers have more free-form fun than elims, so he trusts Steeldancer. He also trusts Orlok based on PM interactions. PK responds to Araris and Sony. N2, PK asks about the vote tally, which is NAI. Overall, I think PK is slightly leaning elim, probably Seer, since his suspicious actions were D1. Between him and Mint, I'm a little more suspicious of Mint (second vote on Aman), but if Mint isn't the Seer I think there's a decent chance that it's PK.
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Steeldancer totally isn't a stalker. Nope. Definitely not. Why would you ever think that?
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I think there's little point in lynching people for meta reasons, either because they're expected or unexpected converts. It's basically a big IKYK, but we can't even guess based off of the Seer's personality because we don't know who the Seer is.
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@Jondesu, the elims have a group kill.
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1. I know you're not the only person saying this, but I don't think it's a given that the Seer would have converted Aman. Almost right after Aman made his offer, Orlok made a post of why it was a terrible idea, which probably dimished the power of the gambit. The Seer would have to take the risk of Aman not having a lot of info into account too. 2. Alright. I disagree with you but the issue's a moot point now and we have better things to discuss. 3. What the Seer, or any eliminator, would do depends a lot on who they are. I'm going to use Aman as an example because he's dead. He's well-known for being a player with a lit of thoughtful analysis and is a driver of discussion. Even though elims generally don't want the village to discuss, if Aman is an elim, he can't suddenly slink into the shadows and not discuss anything. That would be super obvious. Aman always draws attention and not drawing attention would draw a ton of suspicion, unless before the game he said he was going to do something different. On the other hand, an elim who usually sits right on the border of inactivity can continue being inactive and it won't be very different. Elims don't all play the same way. I think the Seer either converted someone or attacked a protected player. Conversions and kill attempts don't get noted in the writeup, so we don't know for sure, but that seems more likely than the Seer not doing anything N1. I know Wyrm puts in effort to pick elims that he thinks probably won't go inactive.
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@DroughtBringer, El said somewhere that she's going to be busy for a few days until she goes on break from school.
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@Paranoid King, why are you "inclined to discount [Steeldancer] as the seer"? Also, I don't think you can rule out Orlok for effort. Effort is NAI for Orlok. I've seen Orlok create a whole spreadsheet of notes on every single post as an eliminator. @Elbereth, I would have been a lot less stressed in QF25 if I'd known that there were only two elims. Seeing so many lynchees flip village was terrifying. I thought that there had to be an alignment-hider or something. It's made me more cautious of lynches when there's a high village:elim ration. @Frozen Mint, I'd argue that D1 lynches are a lot less helpful when any trust reads I get from them can't automatically be carried over to the next cycle. Only elim reads can carry over.
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I think Mint is an elim for adding on to the Aman lynch last cycle and seeming overly lynch-happy. @Darkness Ascendant, mind explaining what you mean by a change in how I speak? (If I sound more thoughtful/formal than usual, it's definitely Orlok's fault. All of it. I've been associating far too much with him lately).
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I talked to Aman in a PM and he said that the reason why he did this was so he could tell which players would or wouldn't claim and also to force the Seer to choose between converting him for info or not converting him for info. Then, when he got lynched, the villager would know and could guess who the Seer was based off of Aman's alignment. Unless there was more to his plan, it's basically useless now. I'm slightly suspicious of Mint for adding onto PK's Aman vote, because she didn't have much reasoning. The way it's worded, Mint feels like she didn't care who got lynched as long as it was somebody winded up dead. Her only other post is just something pinging all of the people who hadn't posted yet, which is NAI.
