Kynedath

Good point but they could have done it to throw us off and hide their motives. Create confusion in the ranks and the soldiers will scatter.

If you can't provide a reason for inactivity, then my vote will stay on you. If you didn't want to get involved, then you still could have talked about another subject and help shed some light on our situation. You obviously know that we need more info and yet you don't want to go out and find the information. As I see it, you have lied and you almost admit that you are trying to pull strings from the background ("think more talk less"). Why the interest in PK? You expressed no opinion during the original argument and the lynch is much more prominent at this point. Besides, as far as I know, Paranoid King was one of the three in risk of being lynched. After checking Ada's vote tally at the end of the last cycle, Mail's vote was changed from Venture to PK, tipping the vote and lynching Hellscythe instead of a tie. Either someody was protecting Venture or else someone had it out for HS. The latter means that the ardent/lightweaver was not in contact with the cook, which means that probably only one of them were a diagrammist as they wouold have communicated on the dia doc. The former either means that Venture is an ardent/lightweaver and didn't want to die or else a Venture sympathizer (maybe diagrammist) protected him. I am currently leaning to anger towards HS as public opinion was very negative towards him. Remember that Mace Windu only posted once on his own and I had to call him out for him to talk more. Do you want to die?

Elkanah where were you last cycle? You promised that you would be more active and I didn't see a single post of yours.

So Paranoid King is a scholar huh? Well that complicates things. I'm just worried that he is a diagrammist scholar, which is most absolutely still possible. If that is so, then you will be laying low for the next two or three cycles to try to regain our trust. I still find you very suspicious but I do think that we need your information. Know that I will be watching you Paranoid King. If you are not a diagrammist then the eliminators will be trying to kill you to stop our flow of information so I think that in around another two to three cycles, we will have a definitive answer as to if you are a diagrammist or not. Hellscythe, I think that the reason that everyone is attacking you is mostly your attitude and the content of your posts. Flippant answers, rhetorical questions and angry, varying remarks are not good ways to go about convincing us that you are innocent. After a clear list of your offenses, you still said that there was nothing to defend against. That is suspicious and you have made yourself much more prominent now then you were. On top of that, you really haven't contributed to the problems being discussed on the thread. Sure, there are one or two posts about the game but other than that, all you are doing is aggravating the players with your offhand, near blatantly disrespectful posts. You draw too much attention to yourself and I am fairly certain that if you are not lynched, then you will be targeted by the eliminators (unless you are one). Then again, before you were under attack, you gave no signs of suspicious activity. The comments you make could possibly be just your attitude towards the rest of the players and how that translates to playstyle. I think that it may be your anger at the others who are attacking you that is causing you to make mistakes. If you start to make posts that are more like debates than insults, then that may lower your suspicion in my eyes. I do think that Venture is very suspicious and most definitely inactive and not contributing at all, making me wonder what he is doing. I know almost nothing of him except that he seems to want to be killed. I have no idea how that would help the diagrammists but then again, they could be trying for distraction. I don't know what they would try to distract from or if they are even trying to do so. But if Venture is not trying to distract us for the eliminators, then I don't see any other reason except that he doesn't like this game. He is going to be a hindrance if we let him live while doing nothing so, here's to you, Venture Mistborn. @Elbereth Alright I concede that most have been two different day and night cycle, but coming into this game, I just expected hat players knew what they were getting into. True, sorry, I didn't see that hidden in his post. Yes that is what I meant Current vote tally: (3) Venture Mistborn: Kipper, Araris Valerian, Kynedath (2) Bort: Sart, Starry Smite (2) Paranoid King: Aonar Faileas, DeathClutch19 (7) Hellscythe: Mailliw73, Zas678, Clanky, Ookla, Adavantos, Tony Shark, Feligion (1) Honey Badger: Hellscythe (1) Orlok: Bort If I have made any errors, please feel free to indicate them.

I am not voting for you HS. I'm voting for PK. This will probably be my last post for the night. I have to go to. I'll try to comment on this tomorrow morning.

I'm not quite defending you at this point. I'm just laying down the information for everyone to use. I'm still a bit suspicious at your behavior too.

if you think about it, it's not all that likely. I'll be pulling from genetics for these stats. I'm assuming that everybody has learned about a punnett square. Unfortunately, I can't do a visual representation of it. Just like in genetics, we are taking from two categories. In genetics, you would look at mothers genes and fathers genes. In this, I'm looking at Diagrammist or not and EC or Explorer. The possibilities are Dia Explorer Dia EC non-Dia Explorer non-Dia EC only one of these can be true. the most threatening would be Dia EC but there is only a 25% chance of that if you are not considering the chances of there being KRs on the Dia team (see my earlier post on this subject) There is a 50% chance that HS is on either side at this point. PS. 5 new posts since I started writing this.

Continuing my suspicions of Paranoid King: You claimed that you wanted to get more information on D1 by not focusing on the HS STINK conundrum. You instead picked a moderately attacked person to involve instead of either trying to find extremely damning evidence on one of the two involved in the conflict, or attacking one of the less noticed players and gathering information on them. One you could have possibly solidified the death of a diagrammist and the other you could have obtained more information, which was your claimed goal, on a player with even less info on them than Sart. You claim that you have seen STINK play games before this and you know his playstyle, therefore having a good basis for him not being a diagrammist. He would purposefully tried to play like he did before to lessen the suspicions of him. Previous games are not a good basis for guilt. Maybe motives or experience level, but not if they are on the eliminator team or not. Because of the (shaky) reasons listed above to think STINK a good guy, you decided to vote on Sart instead without even checking to see if there was any reason he would be an eliminator. You just assumed he was a digrammist because . . . oh right. You didn't give your logic. You even admitted that you didn't have enough time to study his motives and decide if he was guilty or not. Later, you claim to have forgotten that day and night cycles were combined. That was a crucial part of the game and I don't believe that anybody could forget that everything happened at once. It seems like a cover-up and an excuse for something you did. You later recognized that peoples motives were going to affect the likelihood of a WGG but then proceeded to base your presented statistics on pure random probability. After that, you said that you thought Adavantos wanted hard numbers when there wasn't a single mention of concrete numbers. Another cover-up? I think that you might have been trying to give us the wrong stats so that we would feel near certain about Venture's near death experience. Posting that there was an 80% chance that it was a WGG put in our minds that it was almost certain when there was no real motive in doing so and the circumstances of the attempted homicide made it very likely that the healer would have tried to save Venture. In the first post of page 6, you say that "Someone needed to die!" for the purpose of gathering information. Someone was going to die anyways. The essence of your post was that a death needed to happen quickly so that the scholars could give the results back as soon as possible. Your irrational aggressive nature with Sart was not going to make it any faster. The Lynch still would have happened and you still had no proof that Sart was evil. See paragraph 3. Your next post told us that even with all of the arguments laid out by the other players, you still thought that it was a WGG. That might just be because you are trying to mislead the players and direct us to a solution that would force us to argue among ourselves for no reason. Keeping with your flawed statistics, you kept believing something that would lead only to bickering and argumentation. I am by no means saying that Venture is innocent, but there is almost no reason to suspect him by the attempt on his life. In a later post, you claimed that we could protect the schoolars every night if one of the surgeons protected them every night. That is incorrect as a double kill, a lynch or an action movement occurred. That could have been an attempt to make us believe the wrong facts and expose our scholars, or it could have been an honest mistake, I'm not sure which. That is all of the evidence I have against you for now. In regards to the Hellscythe conflict, I feel like he is fairly suspicious as there was no reason for anyone to believe that he was a KR like he said there was. Whoever targeted him did so in cycle one when nobody knew anything about his abilities. Hellscythe claimed that since there was the possibility, then people would attack for just the possibility. The chances that he was were low to begin with and while yes, he did raise them with his reveal, still aren't assured. Nevertheless, I still have much more of a suspicion of PK, but I will be watching this turn of events as it unfolds and see what I can find while it does. I will see what I can find on this situation then give my opinion again.

Wait, so you're telling all of us that you voted for Sart because you assumed that he was guilty and didn't even check to see if there was a reason why he was a diagrammist? Oh boy. If you just go voting on somebody because you don't think another person is guilty because of his playstyle in previous games, then either you know something else that you are not telling us or else you are trying to cause chaos in the factions. At that point in the game, if you knew something that we didn't, either you are a faction Leader or else you have been collaborating with others in private, which was only possible in the Dia doc. Gathering info is great on the first day but the way you went about it, attacking someone already heavily under fire, is counter-productive in that respect. Also, your statistics do not account for human psychology which makes the prospect of both a cook and a healer hitting Venture much more likely then your numbers indicate. The political maneuvring of the players is very obvious in this game and not accounting for it in statistics is either very ammateur or pointedly misleading. I have more but I have a social studies presentation now. More to come later. Mace Windu Paranoid King

If we apply the same logic to the cook problem as I did with the KR problem, then assuming that STINK is telling the truth about there being a third and the factions being balanced, giving us a fourth cook, the probability of there being a cook on the Diagrammist team is: 4/36 = ~0.111 = ~11% 3/35 = ~0.0857 --> 0.0857*0.11 = 0.009427 = 0.94% 1 cook = 11% 2 cooks = 0.94% Keep in mind that this is including Arraenae and Sart who could have been one of the cooks. EDIT: This translates to approximately a one in ten chance. This is also assuming that Wilson and Kas have not hand-picked the diagrammists.

Huh . . . I apologize then. It's so hard to tell a persons tone when they are typing.

Mace you still aren't doing all that much. If you start to contribute and you don't cause more suspicion for yourself, then I will start trusting you As for the PM conundrum, if we were to connect almost all of the PMs to one person, like STINK and Kipper want to do, then it will be very easy for the Diagrammists to kill that person and stop nearly all inner faction communication.I feel like a hierarchy system would do much better for everyone.

I understand this being a first game but I still think that there would have been more of an opinion. I am not super suspicious of you right now but I do think that it was odd that you put in so little input. For now my vote will stay on you. Different results such as what?

I think your sttistics are innaccurate. If we are trying to figure out the chances of there being KRs on the Dia team then you have to take into account the multiplication of probability. Since there are 8 KRs in the game and 36 total, the KRs take up 25% of the players. Therefore, there is a 25% chance that there will be one KR with the Diagrammists. When you calculate the chances of there being 2 KRs on the Dia team, then you have a 5% chance of having both of them on your team. 1 KR = 25% 2 KR = 5% 3 KR = 0.88% Equations: 8/36 = 0.25 = 25% 7/35 = 0.2 --> 0.2*0.25 = 5% 5/34 = ~0.147 --> 0.147*0.05 = ~0.88% Knowing this, I feel we have a high chance of there being only one KR on the Diagrammist team unless Wilson or Kas handpicked the Diagrammists.

To be honest, I'm mostly suspicious of the players who had little to no activity. They would be trying to stay under the radar while still manipulating the results of the cycle. I know that at least one of them had a single post which contributed nothing to the discussion. I don't trust people who try to be unnoticeable and inconspicuous. Mace Windu I'm calling you out, if only to provoke discussion.

Thanks. I tried to remain gender neutral but it just didn't sound right. Mace Windu has posted but I think this is the only post he has.

Creccio I don't see why Hellscythe is targeting you but I do know that the repetition in your language is suspicious to me. You keep coming back to the word lost, suggesting insincerity. I can see why you would want to stay alive for this game, I feel the same way. But I don't understand what you said here It doesn't make sense to me how those two things are related. But my suspicions are held at bay for now. The way you are trying to communicate with someone else makes me believe that you are not a diagrammist. If you were then chances are you would be talking to the person in the diagrammist doc. I suppose you could be a diagrammist trying to contact a non-diagrammist but I don't see the point in that as they would most likely not help you.

Creccio why are you trying to use the phonetic alphabet? Are you trying to communicate some hidden message to someone? Is this just for fun? Plus you aren't even using the proper terms. X is X-ray not Xylophone and I don't even know how many other mistakes you have made this far. The only word I could get out of what you said was JINX at the very end. In order of your posts, I have seen these spelled out with the correct terms: RSM (Regimental sergeant major?) ADVE (Advent?) JIN (Jinx with the inclusion of xylophone)

Gah . . . The pressure! I'll hold off until next Cycle. I still feel like I need more info on all of you before I make a judgement.

I see your point, and I agree that under normal circumstances that this would probably be unusual. However since this is my first game, I really don't want to piss anybody off. I am trying real hard to be as careful as I can and gather as much information as I can before I make any rash decisions.

Here is what I have so far: STINK claims to be a sons of honor runner regular. So far, he has the most votes but has done nothing to subdue his assailants or defend his actions. His responses would lead me to believe that he was being smug, but that would lead to no clear advantage. Alternatively, he could be trying to appeal to the surgeons and edgedancers as well as gain our trust by showing how useful he could potentially be. Hellscythe attacked STINK for his reveal, taking a ton of mistrust from the rest of the players. Some later realized that what Hellscythe was doing was only natural but others still don't believe that Hellscythe was doing anything for the factions. What triggers alarms for me is that Hellscythe accused STINK without validating their reasons why. A half-hearted remark about the possibility of STINK being a diagrammist is all that we got. Later, Hellscythe used statistical information recently discovered to justify her attack. I am thinking that Hellscythe either has information that we don't (not too likely seeing as it's the first cycle) or else they have some ulterior motive like trying to direct suspicion to themselves. Mailliw posted a supposed list of the faction members that some of the players, I'm not quite sure how many, found false. He later confessed that he was not the Thaidakar and he was just looking for information. He now knows the factions of many of the players from their responses. This seems like something anyone would do, given the experience to pull it off, therefore, I can;t really pull that much from his motives. Arraenae's vote on Orlok was mostly based on the post he made regarding STINK and his alleged advice to new players. Because Orlok mistrusted STINK, Arraenae takes it as Orlok trying to sabotage the new players and the rest of the players with them. Orlok distrusts (and therefore voted for) STINK because he thinks that the advice given by STINK sounds like what a diagrammist would say to the new players. My take on this is that Both of them could be covering their Diagrammist ties with posts that are good in the beginning when they know that it won't make a difference that cycle. Adavantos making a list of what happened does seem very useful but I'm wondering why he only put in his input after he came under fire for the posting of his summary. Did he not have any opinions on the proceedings of the first fifty posts? I can understand that it takes time to type all of that information but after the time he spent summarizing the posts, a few comments would have been like nothing. His lack of opinion is slightly suspicious to me but at this time, I'm really not worried about it, though I do agree with Kipper, spoilers would be nice and Adavatos, you missed at least one vote if not more. Kipper voted for Sart. Sart voted for Adavantos because he knew that he has had experience playing this game, and he thought that the summarization posts were going to be inaccurate and biased. None of the reasons he listed were realistic at that point. Adavantos had done nothing blatantly dangerous and his summaries were accurate representations of the posts at that time. This makes me think that Sart was trying to bring attention to Adavantos for false reasons to get him to say something damning in front of everyone. Since Adavantos is an experienced player, I think that Sart either wants to take him out for malicious reasons or he has reason to believe that Adavantos is a Diagrammist. Venture Mistborn has also claimed to be a runner, but this time a captain. Nobody has really reacted at all, never mind incredibly strongly, so I'm going to take this claim with a grain of salt. I don't see why he would claim it this far into the game when there is already a runner out there near the very start of the game. If he waited that long, then I don't know why he didn't keep it a secret for longer to keep an edge against others. Venture, if you have an answer, then please feel free to tell me. With all of this information, I still feel none of it convinces me. at this point I think I'll stay neutral.

This makes the game seem so much more bland! Mailliw this was a mistake. Half the game is gone now and the most appetizing part of this game has just disintegrated.

So I know that since this is my first game I don't know everything about it, but from what I have heard so far, this seems like a suspicious post. I really don't want to make an enemy out of you Elbereth but I just want to bring attention to it. I for one would like to know when you plan on explaining it and why you don't want to explain now.

What about the structure of the factions, will commanders be able to PM captains?

I hope I'm not too late to join the game. If I still can then I would like to be a man known as Deadeye due to his one grey eye. His real name was lost many years ago. This will also be my first game so please forgive me if I don't do it properly or can't keep up.