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Kynedath
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Everything posted by Kynedath
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I've never really been good with telling if someone is an eliminator or not, but my forte is stats and probabilities. Unfortunately my usefullness came too little too late. My infamy screwed us over in the end. I wonder what would have happened if I hadn't been such a terrible player in the beginning. To all the eliminators, well done. That was a game well played. To all the people dead from inactivity, you probably lost us the game, but no hard feelings. That last cycle was amazing. It was really tense. To all the villagers who were killed by lynch, more precisely by me, I apoligize. My bad rep lost us the game, plus you had to die. Sorry. To Hael, Well done. This was a well made game, I think we all learned a little bit. And the items were extremely well implemented. It adds something to the game rather than it just be pure discussion the entire time without adding mechanics taking away from the purpose of developing discussion based skills. Well done! Overall, I really like this game. Especially since this was my first game coming back to the Shard. The first 12-13 games I played way back when sort of helped me, but I think that I really needed this game to get myself back in the flow of things. Thanks everyone who played and organized to help make it such a fun game.
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I told you.
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Alright. Good game everyone. The eliminator just won. Stick, you have doomed us all.
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I'm not in the storming doc! Oh wait, you already know that. Whoops.
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. . . I was just trying to give them a compliment. Sorry if it came off as condescending or anything. I didn't mean to. Most likely not a thing, but I guess it's a possibility.
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See, here's the thing. I promised that I would vote for whoever Stick voted for. I'm not gonna break that promise. If She votes for JUQ, even if we were both eliminaotrs together, I would still vote for them. If She voted for you and we were eliinators together, I would still vote for you. I don't break psomises. Here is the other thing. I know for a fact that both of you are eliminators, so I don't care who she votes for out of you two, I'll still vote for you. But I will say, nice use of affirmation tactics. By referring to yourself as a villager, you implant that thought inside the heads of everyone who reads your post. It's a psychologically sound way to lower suspicion without attreacting too much attention to yourself. I do it all the time. The only thing that I would say is that you are distancing yourself from eliminators too much. By avoiding mentioning yourself as an eliminator, people are less likely to envision you as an assassin. What I did is I said "If I was an eliminator" which is the opposite of what you are trying to do. I'm trying to prove that I'm not by bringing up how what I do isn't something an eliminator would do. The drawback is that I draw attention to myself. That isn't really a problem with me since everyone is already convinced I'm evil though. But anyways, that's probably just me rationalizing some of your speech patterns, but you never know. Maybe you do it subconciously. Maybe you even do it on purpose and I got it right. I'm kinda just looking for things to do now. Kinda bored. Psychology is fun.
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Alright. Listen up. Here is how the board currently stands. Kynedath: Village Stick: Village Nyali: Assassin JUQ: Assassin There is going to be four eliminators in this game total because there was 23 players to start and 3 would be way too little. There can't be five because then I would be the only villager left and all three of you would already have stacked your votes against me. We caught two, there is two left. @I_am_a_Stick, I know that you're on my side because you pointed out that there shouldn't be three of you voting on me. An eliminator wouldn't do that. And we all think that you're a villager anyways, the previous posts say as much. So that leaves Nyali and JUQ as the eliminators. Moving on to how to vote. The best possible for the scenario for the village (no matter who is actually villager) is 25% chances on a win. The eliminators and the village tie the vote and 50% the village survives and there is a villager and an eliminator left (due to elim kill), 50% the entire village dies (lynch and elim kill). The exact same thing happens the next turn, so again, 50% chance of village win. Add those perrcentages together and you get a 25% chance that everything works out for the village. So Stick, sice you and I are the villagers remaining, this is what i propose we do. I know that you don't trust me, but the other two are the eliminators. If we both vote for one of the other two, then we have the best chances of still winning. I say that we both vote for one of them. I don't care which because they're both eliminaotrs, so the choice is yours. One of us will die by next turn, and we go back to another tie for the last cycle. The RNG will decide who wins. But, I know you don't trust me and you think deep down in your heart that I'm en eliminator. I get that. Here is what I'll do. I will vote for anyone you vote for. No matter what. You have my word. That way, I don't get a say in the lynch. Let's say that I AM an eliminator, then the vote will come down to three villagers to one eliminator since I am voting for who you vote for. I will live, and I would kill a villager. It would still come down to 1 v 1 and a 50% chance, but the first vote will have much better chances. Even if you tie the vote between me and someone else, its a 75% chance that an eliminator gets killed (50/50 the player we vote for is an elim, plus 50/50 between me and them because of a tie). If you do vote for me, then you take a 50/50 chance that I am an eliminator. From your point of view, the stats say that it's better to vote for one of the others because no matter who you vote for, I will back you up. This is your best chance to win as a villager.
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I'm on mobile right now and I want to make an actual post but I don't have the patience on mobile. Give me an hour and a half ish
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Long Game 29: A Mote in Adonalsium's Eye
Kynedath replied to Seonid's topic in Sanderson Elimination
I got it. -
Long Game 29: A Mote in Adonalsium's Eye
Kynedath replied to Seonid's topic in Sanderson Elimination
Nope, not yet. Still waiting. -
I always thought that Dox was a play on Documents because he was like the administrator.
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Dude! That sounds really cool. () I'd read it.
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Yeah, I'm probably gonna die today. I'm just going to say though, I'm not an assassin. I just played the worst game of my life. There isn't much, if anything, that I can say to save myself from you guys at this point except that I've been framed. The eliminators killed Sart to throw suspicion onto me and possibly kipper, as well as getting rid of a very vocal player. I mean, why would they kill a player if they knew that by doing so they would be putting literally all of the suspicion onto themselves because they friggin voted for the dude. I regret that I've been so little help this game. In fact, at times I was counterproductive. I'm really sorry. This was my first game in a long time, so I was bound to be at least a little rusty, but I had no idea I was going to be this bad. I'll probably vote later to try and save myself if anyone votes on someone else. If not, I can't really say I expect anything else. Meh, i had it coming. #Villageforlife! EDIT: Atually, If I do survive, I kinda just want to empty out the loot crate. Hael, if I survive this round, I'd like to take everything. Also, I'd like half of the gold if that's okay with you Stick. Again, if I survive.
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Thank you.
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I regret that I haven't been able to post much, and I've gotten seriously behind. I'm sorry. I can't do much for analysis tonight either, but tomorrow I'm done everything I need to do so I should be able to commit again. I can't go back and read, but from the evidence from just here in this cycle, I think that I suspect Sart the most. They admitted it themselves, they voted for villagers twice and tried to save an eliminator. That, with all of the things Joe said, gives a mostly solid case. Also, see point three of Kipper's defense post. I just feel like they're digging a hole for themselves. I know this isn't much, but I don't want to die from inactivity and this is the best I can do for now. Hael, does this count as a significant enough post to not die? If not, I'll see what I can do.
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Sorry guys! I didn't know that I was going to be away from the Internet for so long. I probably will be again today though. I regret it, but I don't have a choice. I'm sorry! Please don't lunch me!
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May I have the lockpicks and some if not all of the gold?
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I too shall make use of this supicion list. It seems like everyone is doing it. 1- Glathir (The Only Joe in the Bush) - Nothing 2- Stormblessed (Darkness Ascendant) soft trust3- Sartinia (Sart) nothing4- Boris (Elenion) slight suspicion5- Thendir (Magestar) neutral6- Arinian (Arinian) Moderate distrust - see previous posts in previous cycles.7- Fjord (Assassin in Burgundy) nothing8- Lyce Norvo (Kynedath) Innocent11- Stub-Tail (Alvron) Moderate village read. It wouldn't make sense for him to be an eliminator with the way he acted during the last lynch12- Stick (I am a Stick) slight distrust13- Kipper (Kipper) nothing14- Guilty (Elodin) neutral16- Galerion (OrlokTsubodai) neutral17- Rhea (Nyali) nothing18- Jayjay (Arraenae) slight distrust. everything "seemed off" but no substancial original accusations20- Adarjmei (Burnt Spaghetti) slight trust21- Kjartan & Mus (Kasimir) slight trust22- John (JUQ) moderate distrust.23- Stink -Moderate distrust - see previous posts in previous cycles This is probably the only thing I'll be able to contribute this cycle. I've been busy with tests and projects and homewor all day. I promise to come back and re-read all of this next cycle and do some serious analysis. For now, this will have to do.
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Well, I mean, I'm currently broke, so I'd like to have the money if at all possible. I literally started the game off with 25 gold.
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Not that I can see.
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Wait, I thought that I only have three people voting for me while Arinian has four. Did I miscount?
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Well, you know what, since you trust me, I'll just drop it.Arguing isn't going to get us anywhere except with you not trusting me. And since I want to survive, I'll let you think what you want. But I'll give you fair warning that I don't trust you.
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Not quite 100% true I think. People would question why you weren't doing something else. Kind of like STINK is doing with Rae right now.
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In that case, How would leaving your vote on Stick help you as an eliminator? @STINK Storms! I am not used to you actually making organized arguments like this. I don't know if it's just me, but whenever I played with you before, you never said anything like this. It was more like "You know what, I'll just vote for myself this turn. Just for the damnation of it!" Is that something new or am I just delusional? Or did your playstyle change with your alignment? No, I haven't realized it yet. But I think that going "gung-ho" is a good thing in this game. We have no roles to work with. Only discussion. I am actually glad that people have so many suspicions from the discussion that has gone on. Yes, but Rae had no chance to kill Alv. I had already been voted on and they had a good chance of lynching someone they thought were suspicious. Either that or what you are saying is true. I'm not trying to say that it's an invalid argument, I'm just saying that it's not entirely condemning. It's completely plausible. I just see other reasons as to their actions. Yeah, a bit, but that is how the game works. It's unfair to soooooo many people. Of course, it makes sense that you want to defy the natural unfairness of the game. It's just a STINK thing to do. Who knows. You might be desperate. This is a game where the village is abnormally disadvantaged compared to normal so it would make sense for there to be fewer eliminators in the game. If you were desperate enough then you might just need to do something to save your teammate. Yeah, it could, but it's a lot less viable since Rae is currently voting for me. True, but it looks to me like a new player following an experienced one's instructions. As for that last point . . . yeah, you can do whatever you want to. You're a free man. I have no control over you. I dunno, it seems like just another game of SE to me. I called it.
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So from what I got from that, you put a vote on me to make me nervous and create some discussion because you want to make the game interesting. You claim that if you were an assassin that you would just leave your vote on Stick but you figured that wouldn't do anything since nobody else was going to vote for her. And you find Rae suspicious because it looks like she just wants to make sure i die. Is that all correct?
