Amanuensis

I am unfortunately a pragmatist in this. I have players I consider to possess high clutch potential or late game solving ability, or who I personally solve well with when V/V, so I usually extend them a grace period early in the game. If I have a choice between losing v!Araris or v!Twin on C1 and don't have solid evidence (by my personal measure) against Araris, I will vote Twin most of the time. I also am confident in my ability to head fake elims and wrestle control from them. Similar to my philosophy on voting, an elim team that is free to pick any NK they want without much risk is an elim team with the advantage. My goal is to keep them backfooted always Night Kill ED1T: Oh I thought C1 ended today lol. No wonder it's quiet

Elims benefit most from an uncoordinated village. This is our mortal enemy. Elims also benefit from being able to predict expulsions, however. If we publicly coordinate on an elim, they can privately coordinate to save them. If we publicly coordinate on a villager, they can remain passive and let us exe ourselves without revealing themselves. I want to avoid a passive elim team at all cost. It's C1 so we are all shooting at fish in a barrel. There's no mechanical evidence to latch onto, so our only tool currently is social interaction. As there are no public votes this makes it very hard to gather pairings (like the one that linked you to Burnt) In normal games, I am known for having volatile, exploratory votes to maximize data points, especially near EoDs when people are most active and high-strung. Let's imagine a scenario where Twin/TUM/Wahr are V/V/E in some combination. Let's assume we all consolidate on the wrong one without exploration of the others. This allows elims to skate. However, by planting the seed in the doubt of elims while one of them is in danger, they may begin to panic / spiral (you should know this feeling well :p) which leaves them open to making mistakes or overextending themselves. As for what happens C2, I look at the flip and the votes and I adjust my reads, then do the same thing again. Except maybe this time the elims think I will not actually vote my top public suspicions like C1, at which point I can manipulate them again by doing the opposite. Eliminators hate unpredictable villagers. Think about how worried y'all were D3-C, when the game was decided on a single exe. In my ideal world, the elims should feel that every day. My goal, as always, is to be as loud and annoying as possible, hoping to bait an NK. I will just keep doing these mind games until I am dead. Where my C1 votes are revealed C2 is irrelevant, because C2 we are voting again

Not a v!read necessarily, I am just giving her (and you) more room to breathe C1, given you were both evil last game and I believe I know some of your tells (only a theory until fully tested when dealing with fog of war). I also feel e!Coco has more potential to spew alignments given high e!activity trends and therefore would rather pursue that slot after 1-2 cycles

I mean, I have two full time jobs, if you count uni as one (I do) but fair enough, it was mostly his lack of activity in my game that made me Hurm about it in the first place Otherwise, in case you missed my edits As for the rest, I am only considering Slytherin candidates for my -3 atm I have crossed Qian, Araris, Wahr, coco, and you off, which only leaves TUM (which I felt hit a C1 dead-end by my calculus + he is potential low-hanging-fruit like Wahr, though Twin arguably is too). Otherwise there's just Coma, and I'd rather we get a pinch hitter than do Contribution Crusading. Ravenclaw is not currently active enough that I can confidently vote any over another. I don't know Mippo well enough so am reticent to D1 them

I'll also add that I found Twin's burst of activity unusual given his inactivity in LG110, however in that scenario he did pinch hit into a more complicated game than he perhaps expected, so I left that out of my initial post. ED1T: That and I didn't love him joining me on -3 Wahr or putting -2 on TUM. If both are village, those were both votes I'd expect elims to latch onto given my pushes so far ED2T: I also noticed he had 3 negatives but only 1 positive decided which could potentially suggest he's reserving buffs for teammates and more concerned with consolidating negatives on villages

Let me reply with a quote! If you ask why now and not later, I get impatient when I'm dissatisfied by thread activity so I'm always looking for ways to generate more content / data points for solving & I am running out of observations and reaction tests

Ftr this is infinitely more useful than a naked vote all vibes come from somewhere, and the main reason it's good to explore these vibes deeper is that it helps us understand your mindset. I will now note publicly that I noticed Twin had only posted once N0 and 10 times within the first 26 hours of this turn. My pet theory is that he's more active because of an alignment shift. Was planning to sit on it longer to see if I can get e!Twin to spew, but I do want more thoughts on him since atm he is the best -3 vote I can personally justify atp I also wanted to sit on it because I don't love the idea of voting people for increased activity alone, otherwise we risk discouraging activity

Yeah, I believe there is only adjacent info learned from Protego stopping a NK and who loses votes

Mint is returning after a few years of absence (I think), so I'm not sure if many veteran players remember her playstyle (I don't), and people change a lot between gaps so it may not be much relevant. Could be wrong if she's played games during my own hiatus, but that's my two cents

No worries it was several pages ago

I established earlier that I am using public red votes to represent my -3 vote. I am trying to get some kind of discussion going around voting as I personally develop my best reads by social interaction, and the most telling usually comes from fear of death. I also feel we will suffer in the late game if we neglect discussing our suspicions and trusts publicly, to some degree. I think it's safer to be more open about things early on than when the numbers are closer to exlo I also established earlier that my public votes are not necessarily the ones I have submitted. Some can be real and some fake. Basically mixing genuine suspicions with ML bait to see if the elims will overextend themselves to protect one of their own.

I'll try to finish the scene I began last night after maths / before work and then I can probably leave an RP opening for you to speak with Amara o7 Ah, right. I forgot in order to be hard cleared village in LG110 you had to die very early on Alright Wahr, I'll give you this cycle and the first 24 hours of the next to prove yourself village to me, else I might assume your survival interest may be increased by a red roll Hm. Twin. Can you please try to articulate said "vibes" for -3 Wahr, -2 TUM, -1 coco, and +3 doc? I did indeed! Think I saw you reading a thread at one point. I guess I'll just ask you straight up. Earlier you commented on my (now proven based on a false premise) analysis, but not on the analysis itself. I found that odd as you didn't provide your perspective on things. Can you tell us about the Ravenclaw PM activity levels? Have you developed any suspicions within your group or, more importantly to me, within thread? If not, why not? How can we help? ED1T: (-3) Twin: Aman (-3), (-3) TUM: Aman (-1), Twin (-2), (-3) Wahr: Twin (-3), (-2) mippo: Aman (-2), (-2) Araris: Vergrass (-2), (-1) Aman: Vergrass (-1), (-1) coco: Twin (-1), (+8) Mist: Aman (+3), Vergrass (+3), Twin (+2), (+3) Vergrass: Aman (+2), Twin (+1), (+3) Doc: Twin (+3), (+1) Ink: Aman (+1), I believe this is accurate to current public votes ED2T: @Araris Valerian I don't necessarily trust you atm, though I'd like to. Assuming v!you I do trust your judgment (caveat, I may not agree with the conclusions). Can you expand upon your decision to not vote for Doc or Twin today? I'm pressuring Twin now but I'd like to hear a bit more perspective on those slots from a Slytherin.

Sorry, I def missed that Nice to meet you though o/ I don't believe we've played before

I will say that I would love Friendship with Ravenclaw or Slytherin, but I'd rather not have Owl Mail or Extra Credit, so please don't give me any +2s or +3s. Any of the negative penalties are fine by me. @Archer if Kasimir gets +12 and and -12, do they cancel out to 0 (I assume yes)? Or is he counted for 12 for the positive rewards and 12 for the negative penalties? ED1T: I'd also be happy with someone from Slytherin or Ravenclaw getting Friendship into Gryffindor.

@Through the living Wahr Wahr, I was quite impressed by your play in LG110. So far you have only RP'd this cycle, however. What's going on in that geist of yours? {-3 Wahr, -2 mippo, -1 TUM, +1 Ink, +2 Grass (Ver), +3 Mist} (3) Wahr: Aman (3), (2) mippo: Aman (2), (1) TUM: Aman (1),

The other issue on thread activity might be there being no mechanical requirement for public voting. We should probably do something though (3) TUM: Aman (3), (2) mippo: Aman (2), (1) Mint: Aman (1),

Chess, presumably + Slytherin's throwing a party apparently (aka their PM is likely drawing their attention more)

Yeah, IMV I pretty much derailed early discussion with my initial misunderstanding of when alignments were given. I don't quite think it's into GM PM Etiquette territory as some of us were confused by the non-standard D0, which is more a reading comprehension problem on my part. I would say it's a topic not worth exploring further but I have personally formed some reads from the early reactions to my misunderstanding. Interesting. I'd love to hear those reasons. Araris could very well be one of my fake lean greens, and you could very well be one of my fake lean reds. Mostly I'm picking on you atm because you're usually reluctant to vote early and the sooner I coax a read from you, the better for my sanity. Curious who else is sus of you besides Qian (also another reason I picked you was them expressing minor PM suspicions of you and coco). Qian was the only one I noticed

Home from work now. Updated my alignment chart. Gryffindor Hufflepuff Ravenclaw Slytherin Aman Grass Hopper Doc Ink Mist mippo Qian Mint TJ Wahr Miss TUM Twin Coma Araris coco Good Lean +1 Lean +2 Lean +3 Neutral Lean +1 Lean +2 Lean +3 Evil Lean +1 Lean +2 Lean +3 Currently my votes are on: {-3 TUM, -2 mippo, -1 Mint, +1 Ink, +2 Grass (Ver), +3 Mist} @The Unknown Medallion who you gonna vote for TUM? ED1T: All good! I just wanted to clear it up as much as possible ED2T: In the event of 3 elims, my gut does not think that Mint / mippo / TUM are a coherent team, but they are all slots I wouldn't mind getting flipped at this juncture. I also personally think 4 elims is not off the table depending on how Archer spread them (2 and 2 in 2/4 Houses could justify it, for one example; more likely 2/1/1 & least likely 1/1/1/1) I will also say that: I have intentionally made X players green that are actually red and Y players red that are actually green (I personally find utility in not letting some elims know if you're onto them to lure them into complacence, i.e. "reverse pocketing") I may or may not be lying about my vote spread as there is some element of the elims benefitting a lot more if they know exact vote distributions (easier for them to organize MLs if they know the legitimate counts)

So far Gryffindor is fairly quiet. Mint has indicated business until the weekend and Ink is still warming up to SE, I think. I have a minor tinfoil that Archer put two elims with me and this is Mint teasing me, but that's a late game problem Currently I have voted Ink as Prefect and am waiting for others to vote No one claimed it explicitly but after Qian outed all of Slytherin and all the members of Gryffindor / Hufflepuff RP'd their houses, I was able to fill a chart

The slip only works if house selection was after we received our alignments. The confusion stemmed from me believing everyone knew their alignments before picking their Houses. There wasn't a slip regardless, Mist misunderstood a single sentence / disregarded my early page 1 posts We now know for sure I was village when I decided to rand my house The slip Mist thought he saw was the last line, which only works if I was elim D0 (not the case). I was only pointing out that I decided to not be Slytherin after I was told I'm village, not because of it I could be evil here but that requires me pretending to have no idea elims were selected D1 rather than D0 + that I was gaslighting Mist about him being the one confusing things This is in fact why I think Mist is just V. Jumping on the "slip" and him already clearing Ver based on their PM feels more reminiscent of LG110 than my initial D0 impression of him (which was based on me thinking alignments were given D0 not D1)

Thank you. I too am inclined to reduce the Slytherin numbers before others based on probability alone. I am very curious to see if they shoot within that group or a smaller one. I assume the PM has been very active. Anyone stand out to you in there so far?

Oh so are we doing our 6 votes starting today too? If so I would propose we still vote in thread for at least the player we submit -3 for @Araris Valerian Araris I saw you reading earlier. What're your thoughts so far

That is what I thought but apparently no. @Archer Did elims only get selected after Houses were determined? This is what I asked and he said correct with a break down So no, alignments were finalized after House selection, everyone was told village D0 or earlier

Mhm. I can say that I technically received my PM before sign ups were officially closed, so if I read that statement, I would've assumed it was a pre-game thing and ignored the starting message otherwise (by the time the game started, I'd been more focused on my characters and filling Archer in on their little side plot). I have since confirmed with Archer that alignments came after house selection, so we should view all individuals selections as NAI. That said, we can speculate on how Archer would distribute elims with a 2-3-4-8 player spread