Amanuensis

Well, at the time I hadn't considered the possibility that Meta went on a business trip and therefore could have been attacked by the Derethi the night of the missing kill. I believed that if the cause of the missing kill was due to a village Merchant they would have come out and said it immediately, and thus assumed that the missing kill was Jeskeri since Meta was barely on at all that cycle (only got on to tell the thread he was celebrating his birthday). So, I generated that list of players who didn't post that turn (Emily, You, Orlok(ish), Sart, Seonid and Straw), and given that you were asking about the Merchant thing, I guessed you were just trying to convince people not to look at the inactives when that was the real cause. Plus, I already had an evil-read from you based on some things you said early on in the game, like "it's up to the Senate, not me" and asking us what we thought about a plan. I got the vibe you were intentionally trying to stay on our good side and therefore avoid being scanned for a while.

I know or at least suspected. I figure you're going to keep your alignment vague until the write up? Or were you officially claiming Derethi, earlier?

Why not claim that sooner, then :[ it wouldn't have been hard to prove, and we wouldn't have wasted a lynch on you.

Hah, well given Straw is apparently an Acolyte, I pretty much assume no one else is.

Ah, so you're Derethi then? Humph. Well, either way, that's good for me

I agree with lynching her, but it's less to do with that and more with her interaction with Meta and the fact that she was inactive during the turn where there was only one kill that makes me think she could be Jeskeri.

Should be no reason why not. Personally I would like to just see Mailliw and Seonid's alignments before I start reading any deeper into everything else.

Well I went ahead and added you to my GM PM Alv

Good morning @Alvron, you're the moderator for this game, yeah? Due to Mckeedee's circumstances, I was wondering if you had access to enough information to post the next turn, or if not, knew someone who does / could?

That is definitely an alternate explanation. If it's true that the Derethi attacked Meta twice in a row, it wouldn't even necessarily have to be a WGG with Elbereth. But if we assume that, then where do we go from here with our lynch / scan?

@Ecthelion III, @emilylime, @Eolhondras, @Kipper, @OrlokTsubodai, @Sart, @Seonid, @The Young Bard: did any of you go on a Business Trip N2?

Ultimately what this comes down to is if there is any Merchant who went on a Business Trip N2. If there was none, then the answer to the lack of a second kill is because at least one of those five players could not put a kill order in, regardless if they're Jeskeri or Derethi. Which is why I think it's important that any Merchant who used their one-time power that turn come out now. Like I said before, the eliminators would already know why their kill didn't appear if that's the case, so really keeping it a secret at this point helps no one but them.

I’m still suspicious of the lack of two kills on N2. I get where Mailliw was coming from about Meta but, I feel that either Mailliw or El (or both) are trying to deflect us from the real reason why there was no kill so that we don’t target inactives (the rest of the Jeskeri). Which is why it critical that I ask if any Merchant went on a business trip N2. If you did you should reveal it now, since the eliminators would already know why their kill failed to appear in the write-up. 3 of the 5 players dead so far were Merchants, so unless there is a ton of them, I’m leaning towards inactivity being the cause. I have went back and looked at N2 to see who never got online to post and composed the following chart. Name # of Posts N2 Amanuensis 1 cloudjumper 4 Ecthellion III 6 Elbereth 3 Elenion 12 emilylime 0 Eolhandras 2 Kipper 1 Mailliw73 0 OrlokTsubodai 1* Sart 0 Seonid 0 Straw 0 The Young Bard 2 So, Emily, Mailliw, Sart, Seonid and Straw all did not post on N2, presumably because they were inactive. Given this information, Mailliw is my top suspect for a Jeskeri for two reasons: A, I believe that he asked whether or not a Merchant getting attacked while on a business trip would appear in the write up was a ploy to distract us from targeting players who were inactive that night (aka him) so that Meta and him would not look so bad, and B, he is pushing that Elenion and I get scanned rather than someone outside the Senate, despite him agreeing with my plan to let Senators be weeded out by the eliminators so that we can maximize our investigation’s effectiveness. I know I am village and am beginning to convince myself more and more than Elenion is as well. Therefore is any of us began evil it would have to be Elbereth (I’ll admit that I feel like I’m tunneling on her again). If this is the case then Elbereth could also be Jeskeri, and that she decided to protect herself instead of make a kill because she was concerned the other eliminator faction would attack her (which also help explains the one kill and her mysterious survival). This would have to mean she is a Duelist or a Kesegan Monk, of course, so I'll have to ask @Mckeedee123 if Kesegan Monk’s can self protect like Duelists can Seonid has only posted four times. First on D1 just to say that he’s around(ish). Second to say he didn’t feel strong enough about anyone to vote to lynch them (eliminator trying to stay out of the limelight?) and that he supported scanning players with the second-most votes in the lynch every day. Third he posts only to say he agrees with Meta that pressure should be put on the Senators and then proceeds to vote for me to get recalled (trying to get someone they know is not a Jeskeri off the Senate so they can slip someone in?). And finally he gets on again to lynch eramit and say he supports Bard being scanned (another player I now know without a doubt isn’t Jeskeri). If it’s not Mailliw/Seonid my next guess for a Jeskeri would be Emily. While I thought he latched onto her with his first post because she was just a recent / good example of something he wanted to discourage (just as I did with Elodin in LG23 regarding “chaotics”), it’s very possible that he instead was paying more attention to a fairly new teammate rather than other players, and went with the “vote-for-my-teammate-first” tactic eliminators sometimes do with hopes of distancing themselves. Her absence that turn could very well be a part of the reason why there was no kill. Sart has only posted once and it was on D1 to tell us he’s been distracted with Pokemon GO (can’t really blame him, I’d be playing it pretty much non-stop if it worked in South America), that he thought the bandwagon on Bard was interesting, and to comment on how Bard jumped on Mailliw about “playing mind games” when he really wasn’t (could be a potential indirect defense of Mailliw). That being said, Sart has the weakest connections to Meta out of all of these players so he’s at the bottom of my suspect list for the Jeskeri. I also think he would be a lot more involved in this game if he were evil (the only time I ever remember Sart being evil it was when we were eliminators together, and he seemed a lot more involved than the games I’ve played where him when he was a villager). Assuming Straw is actually a Korathi Acolyte, which I believe for now, then there isn’t much point in me analyzing him. Therefore, in conclusion, I am most suspicious that Mailliw is Jeskeri, followed by Seonid and Emily, and lastly Sart. For these reasons I would personally like to lynch and investigate two of these four players this turn (would prefer any but Sart, though), with hopes of catching at least one Jeskeri, or at the very least help narrow down our pool. I will change my Investigation nomination from Eol to Seonid and vote Mailliw for the lynch this turn. EDIT: Right, I gave Orlok and asterisk because while he posted once, and it was only to tell us that he was busy with real life, and that it was early enough in the turn that a target might not have been decided yet, and therefore he is also a possible candidate for a Jeskeri. I'd definitely rank him higher in suspicion than Sart, but I am more inclined to believe he is Derethi, based off my eramit scanning me D1 theory. I can go into depth of that later, if someone wants me to.

I hadn't even considered that. @Eolhondras, can you please remove your retraction vote from me too? Otherwise if a Landlord changes a vote to get me kicked and I die tonight the village is for sure going to lynch you next.

Well then do me a favor and don't vote to recall me tonight, please. Given it's only two votes now, doing so means the Derethi could finish me off for good. The only cause I can see Eol / you trying to recall me tonight is because ya'll are evil. I'm already pretty suspicious of him (which I'll go into next turn when I analyze his posts like I did for Elbereth). I'd do it now but it's getting late and I have to wake up early for work in the morning. I was literally about to go to bed before I saw your post about recalling me, so if I could get your guarantee that you won't do that so then I can lay back down, I'd very much appreciate it.

Except I'm neither of those things and therefore am guaranteed to die. I would rather we waste a scan to prove me than give the eliminators the opportunity to kill me. Unless you have an actual reason to find me suspicious, I would rather NOT repeat what's happened the last two games I've played (ya'll decided to lynch me instead of Padan when I was completely right not only about him but his entire team, or ya'll deciding to lynch me because I'm "dangerous to your faction" when all I cared about was killing the Spiked). If you have a genuine reason to be suspicious of me or any sort of evidence to suggest it than please, enlighten us all. Otherwise don't be the only reason my life is put at unnecessary risk. I would REALLY like to survive one of these games as a villager for once.

Yeah except if I'm dead I can't use that protection anyway. You KNOW I'm going to die sooner rather than later without protection.

Recalling me means making me vulnerable to night kills. I'd prefer it if you didn't do that, thank you.

Fair enough I haven't looked over your stuff yet, which given how much more involved you've been this game than her, I imagine will take a lot longer. Just from what I do remember I have you ranked lower on my suspicious chart, but I think that's more so because of her voting for me the first two days combined with the fact that there's more things you've done that suggest your good than she has. Of course, that could be intentional to keep you from being scanned. I believe your claim of being a Landlord, however, or in the case that you're a Derethi, that you are working with one. Not really sure why you'd try to encourage that lie unless you were the Gyorn, which we already know isn't a fact now that Eramit is dead. For that reason I'm pretty sure you're not Jeskeri, given that Conquestor was a Jeskeri Landlord.. So really that leaves only Elbereth as a possible Jeskeri Senator, unless Mek / the RNG made it so the entire original cast were villagers, or at least non-Jeskeri. I suppose that could be balanced since Senators are automatically high priority targets for both factions. Still, I'm doubtful. I'm not sure if Elbereth is the player I'm most suspicious of yet. I still haven't gone through the rest of the players so far, so I may prefer to lynch one of them instead once I do. My main concern with recalling Elbereth is that if that's the course we take, we need to make sure we replace her with a player who's actually been scanned. While Straw is most likely innocent, he is also notoriously unpredictable, and often in ways that hurt the village regardless of his alignment. I would simply feel more comfortable with a more reliable player in that position. I should be able to get more thoughts down on who I think is worthy of a lynch / scan during the next turn, so I'll talk about this more then.

I've got a little less than two hours to do this, so I'm going to try and knock out as much analysis as I can right now. I won't bother analyzing Bard since I know without a doubt that he's a Villager. Guess I'll start from the top of the player list, as Elenion did. Elbereth: Knowing that Jaime, Bard and myself are all villagers, my suspicion of Elbereth has increased substantially. I by no means have any solid proof, just a lot of theories / speculations about things she's said / done so far. On the first day, while we were discussing strategies for scan targets, she said this: "I disagree that we should scan more lurking players, honestly. Because while they might be a bit more likely to be eliminators (although I’d argue that that’s not the case - if they’re lurking when they usually don’t, that’s one thing, but the players you named are usually fairly low profile), that scan is also much less useful. Knowing the alignment of someone who’s interacted a lot with everyone else is much more useful than knowing the alignment of someone who’s barely posted. Regardless of what that alignment turns out to be." It's a valid point, however if she is indeed an eliminator I'm willing to bet at least one player on her team, if not multiple players, fall into the category of lurkers, and this was a way for her to indirectly defend them from being scanned. Specifically I mentioned both Sart and Seonid, so if Elbereth is indeed an eliminator I would hazard to guess one of these two players is on her team. On Day 1 she votes for me for three reasons: because I was "placing myself above the rest of the players," which I feel is an opinion-based conclusion because that was neither my intent. I can't seem to find where she later explains it, but I think it was something along the lines is I was trying to put myself in an authoritative position by saying "So long as I am alive, I will do my best to remind players of where each faction is in terms of winning, to the best of the knowledge we have, so that no one loses perspective on the situation." I'm not entirely sure how a statement like that gives me authority, but either way I'll explain that my intent was to remind both of the eliminator factions that I am a threat to them with hopes of encouraging them to attack me that night. Next, she is suspicious of me because of an "us Dulas" comment, which I said had no excuse or ulterior motive. Nothing more than a one-time choice of wording for sentence variety (because one of my biggest pet peeves is using the same words or phrases over and over again). Lastly you say you're suspicious of me because of the advice I gave to not trust someone absolutely if they help kill an eliminator, as they could still belong to the other faction. I fail to see how that statement is anything but good and makes me think you were reacting more to the implications of that perspective to the eliminators (I.E. you were planning to bus a teammate, or hoping to get a member of the opposite eliminator faction killed to help clear you). Interestingly enough, in the same section you say you support my plan of keeping the Senate as stagnant as possible. This suggests to me that either you are a Jeskeri and want to hold your position or you are a Derethi who would prefer not to give the Jeskeri a chance to infest the Senate. When confronted by Mailliw about how you were talking to me about scan targets in the doc and then minutes later vote for me, you say "I was curious whether I could get anything out of him before he knew I was suspicious of him. Sadly not." This is less evidence against you but more so in my favor, but that's probably because other than the weak reasons you vocalized to suspect me are just that, weak, and I have suggested more plans than not that make the eliminators' (the Jeskeri in particular) jobs near impossible. What's interesting to me is that you also continued to say I'm the most suspicious player to you in D2, and I have yet to see you point out anything else (perhaps because you're an eliminator and I'm not, therefore a dead / suspicious Aman is better for you then a living / trusted Aman). This reaction seems both unnecessary to me, and concerning. Kinda getting the vibe that "oh dang, one of my Jeskeri teammates was killed on D1 and now it's going to be a lot harder to win." Now, this theory kinda contradicts the multiple posts where you say you don't mind being recalled, but I could see you attempting to go for the "people are going to assume that a starting Jeskeri Senator would mind being recalled, so if I say I'm okay with the opposite then people will assume I'm not Jeskeri." There's a later quote that'll connect with this idea, too. I'll talk about it when I happen upon it again. I'd say you're probably not Derethi because of you voting he be scanned since the very first day, but that might have just been an early distancing technique that ended up getting much farther than you originally hoped. Rescinding your statement would make you look extra suspicious, so instead you followed through with it, especially after Eramit continued to do suspicious things. Once again, this comes down to the concept of an eliminator busing a teammate; in most cases this is a terrible idea as it reduces numbers (and in the Gyorn's case, information) but if it succeeds it does a good job of making you look good. I am more leaning towards you being Jeskeri than Derethi, but I can definitely see this scenario occurring with you. You agree with my scanning non-Senators plan. Suppose that it's not exactly alignment-indicative since it really does make the most strategic sense for the village, but I could totally see you going along with the idea because it's what a villager would be expected to do, with the added bonus that there's a reduced chance of a scan being done on you and revealing that you're an eliminator. Now, given the fact that you were attacked (and even said you expected it) makes me believe that the main reason you were okay with this is because you intended to have your faction simultaneously attack and protect you, in order to effectively confirm you're a villager without being scanned, when in truth you really aren't. Here's the quote I was looking for, I think. You say you're fine with being recalled, but don't ever really mention the possibility of being scanned. Granted that's assumed you don't want to do that due to your prior support of the scan-non-Senators-only plan, it also might be because you'd rather be recalled from the Senate rather than scanned, as the first option still allows you to live / plot. I have less time than I thought so I'll have to end this post here. Ultimately my reasons for being suspicious of you Elbereth is because there are three original Senators confirmed to me that are good, your attempts to slander me, your reaction to the Con lynch, and potential suspicious motivations for your actions and statements so far. If there's a Jeskeri between Elenion and you I definitely think it's you.

As I said in the senate doc, Bard is indeed a villager. I will get on later to respond to more / finally do my player analysis.

Duelist. I've been self protecting every night so far. I have a very high tendency to die early, and was intentionally trying to bait an attack the past two cycles, with hopes of wasting a kill from the Derethi or the Jeskeri. The fact that the Derethi have left me alone lends me to believe that one of them asked eramit to scan me, most likely on D1. I heavily suspect Elbereth / Orlok for it because they've both mentioned being suspicious of me when I have done nothing but make the eliminators jobs harder. Considering that so long as I am on the Senate I cannot be murdered in the night, it makes sense that they'd try to get me lynched. I was going to hold onto this information longer, but at this point it's pointless to keep it a secret from the village when I believe the eliminators already know. The Wounded Gazette Gambit is a strategy where if an eliminator faction can attack one of their members without killing them, they will do so to make people trust that player. Generally it's considered a waste of a turn, but what's more important in the long run? One of their players gaining the trust of the village and therefore being able to manipulate them without cause for concern? Or getting another kill off early and having said player still up for scrutiny?

@eramit, who was it that told you to spy on me D1? Was it one of the Senators, like Elbereth or Bard? Or perhaps Orlok, Kipper, Meta or Mailliw? I know you already know what role I have. I can't imagine many other players suggesting me for the first or second scan. So, which one was it? Also, in regards to the Jeskeri, I think the lack of a kill means their members were inactive. I wish I got on sooner to check online times, but we might be able to determine the identity of at least one Jeskeri based on who didn't post last night turn. I'll go back and look myself when I get the time, but if anyone else has the freedom to do so sooner rather than later, consider this a request. @cloudjumper Hey, so if you didn't protect El, who did you protect? Personally I'm suspicious that the "kill attempt" on Elbereth was a WGG, which means either the Derethi or Jeskeri have a protective role. I'm leaning Derethi because it would line up with the theory that Eramit ascertained my role early on. Orlok and Eol are my next best bets for Derethi, based on my theory with eramit.

Since it usually takes me a while to write my average post compared to other people, I'm just going to say some essential things quick, then go back and thoroughly analyze what I've missed. First of all, on the subject of Jaime being killed so cloud could get elected. I don't think it's because cloud is Derethi, but it was a smart plan, in a way,for the Derethi's. I can't remember which turn it was, but I remember cloud suggesting getting a Duelist and Kesegan Monk on the Senate so that they can just protect each other to ensure a village win. I don't believe the Kesegan Monk can self target but for sure the Duelist can, so by having cloud elected, the Derethi have encouraged cloud to protect himself from here on out, rather than any of the other current or future Senators. Granted, whether or not cloud decides to do that is up to him, but it does at least narrow the range of players he can protect if kept alive. That being said, @cloudjumper, since you are being protected by the election tonight, make sure you use your power on which of the senators you believe is most likely to be attacked. I'm going to formally request that you don't bother using it on me, however. Since returning to my primary detachment I haven't had as much time as usual to participate in these games, and am unsure how soon I might get more room to breathe. I will dedicate what free time I do have to finding the eliminators, but I would not be opposed to the eliminators killing me tonight, if they believe that the most strategic option. I thought there was something else I wanted to comment on but I can't remember right now. Just going to post this now so that it can encourage the appropriate orders to be placed if they haven't been placed already. Will go read through everything I've missed now.

Sorry for not getting online sooner. Between work commitments and course work, I haven't had much time for anything else today. Suppose that's what I get for procrastinating my responsibilities and assignments. I don't have enough time to analyze the votes as thoroughly as I'd like, but I'll go ahead and make some quick comments before I go back to writing this accursed essay. Considering how many votes stacked on him by the end I'm inclined to agree with you. Seonid did the exact same thing in LG22 with the day one vote on Sart, and besides me no one had any suspicion for him following it, so I could definitely see a Jeskeri trying to pull off a similar feat, especially if Conq's death was inevitable. Since this game has no lynch vote manipulations (the Landlord can only affect election votes), if a player is already in the lead it makes little logical sense to continue voting for that player. I'll have to go back and see if anyone tried to shift the vote off of him towards the end or threw a vote on them when it wasn't necessary, as if a player did either one of those things, I reckon there's a good chance they're a Jeskeri. Patience, cloud I'm getting there. Why do I, in particular, think I should remain a senator? In my mind I'd rather keep my position because I can trust myself with it. Beyond that, it just comes down to strategy. I've already discussed the previous turn why I think it's smarter to leave the Senate as it is. Voting for Senators to be recalled is just another way for the eliminators to strip villagers of its power. Like with lynch votes, they possess more information than the average player and can coordinate their votes and arguments to manipulate us. I believe its unlikely that the villagers don't already hold the majority in the Senate, therefore it makes the most sense that we be left in our positions so that they are forced to use their kills to remove us. I believe it's the best way we can prevent the Jeskeri from posturing themselves for a win, while we can more thoroughly focus on the Derethi. I'm with cloud here, and am very likely going to suggest you for the scan next, eramit. While I do think it's likely that a Derethi was involved in Conq's lynch, I don't believe cloud is one. As for Elbereth... I'm not entirely sure how I feel about her yet. I'll have to analyze what she's said and done later when I have more time. No matter what her alignment is, I still think it's more likely that cloud is a villager. If a Senator slot opens up tonight I would recommend him for the position. I'll have to respond to this, and everything after it, next turn. Before I leave, however, I'll just say really quick that I agree that alignment is the only thing that should be revealed publicly and that I disagree with using the Investigation on the Senators. I've already explained why before, but if I need to explain my thought process more thoroughly, I'll do so tomorrow. Either way, just because there's a group of 5 people who have the power to cast the necessary votes, that doesn't mean the general population are powerless. I didn't bother with doing a lynch vote in there because I think stacking 3 votes is pointless early game. It'll probably be an important mechanic when our numbers get a lot lower, but until then the village majority should be able to dictate who gets lynched on their own. As for the scan vote I went with the obvious choice: confirming cloud's claim. That and more people outside of the Senate agreed that scanning the runner-up in the lynches is a good plan. That's all I've got time for right now. I'll get on again as soon as I can.