Orlok Tsubodai
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Everything posted by Orlok Tsubodai
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Going to cement this regardless. Araris.
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I don’t think there is a tie, unless you’re claiming vote manipulation?
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I’m voting on you because I know that Szeth is being killed tonight. If I v!read TUA, and Szeth is being killed, I then need to make a judgement on which of Araris and yourself is more suspicious - it doesn’t matter that Szeth is more suspicious than either of you - they’re not a factor, as they’ll be dead either way. If they’re the eliminator, the game is won regardless. Consequently, I can think this is v-v-v (with TUA v and Szeth e), and still vote for one of Araris or yourself, provided I think more strongly that TUA is v than one of the two of you. This isn’t a normal Lylo, because of Devo’s kill, and so think Araris’ accepting his death is consistent with being a villager, if he believes Szeth to be the eliminator. I think e!Araris would be fighting tooth and nail to stay alive - as if they survive this lynch, and Devo kills v!Szeth, then with the eliminator kill, they’re at 1-1-1 next cycle. I don’t feel strongly either way between Araris and yourself. I had forgotten that you pushed Stick D1, although I don’t think you being attacked is enough to clear you. I’ll reread your interactions with Stick D1. I also need to look again at STINK’s defence of Araris last cycle. @The Unknown Aon, could you protect whichever of Illwei, Araris or myself you think is most likely to be attacked tonight? If you genuinely believe I’m the eliminator, Illwei, please reread C3, and my interactions with Archer. I maintain that I believe they ought to convince you otherwise. My perspective this cycle comes from having made a monumental screw up with STINK last cycle, having put more effort into trying to solve the game than is healthy.
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I’m not voting for anyone yet because I’m trying to work this out for myself at LyLo. I’m also increasingly village reading Araris this cycle, although I’m not committed to v!Araris. I’m struggling with how much you’re pushing e!Orlok, however. I suspect this is v-v-v at this point between Araris, you and I, but will vote on Illwei for now - Araris this cycle has been willing to accept his own death at LyLo, has expressed the very same sentiment re inactives I feel, and isn’t pushing e!Orlok, which I’m genuinely confused by from Illwei.
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I think this is a situation where it’s best to be completely transparent, and hope you show the village goodwill in response if it comes to it tomorrow - I think that’s the path most likely to lead to village victory (and with decent odds anyway with lynch+kill+tomorrow’s lynch if you do help us), rather than relying on you missing something. I’ve been assuming you would kill, as a lynch if an eliminator today, where you don’t kill, means we 3-0-1 if the lynch is before the kill in the OOA, and I didn’t think you’d risk that. The lynch cannot be after the kill, as we haven’t been missing the votes of the players who died, although I suppose they could very well be simultaneous. If you’re prepared not to kill, and we commit to not lynching, there may be a mechanical route through this. I’ll think on it tomorrow.
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@Illwei, @Araris Valerian @Devotary of Spontaneity Further thoughts. Getting a pretty village read from Araris about not wanting to lose to an inactive - I feel strongly the same way. If Devotary doesn’t kill tonight, the game can run another cycle, and we functionally have a third clearance. Spitballing, but wondering whether there’s a way to do this mechanically - e.g. lynch Szeth today, and have @The Unknown Aon lurch me tonight. I can action scan one of Illwei or Araris. If I die, then TUA didn’t protect me (contingent on their activity - we’d need confirmation from them for this to work) and so made the kill. Those of you who survive (Devotary, Araris, Illwei) lynch them next cycle, Devo kills, and village + Devo win. If Szeth is the eliminator, he kills tonight, but is lynched. Issue here is Devotary doesn’t end up in the final three players without making a kill. Will keep writing my train of thought, rather than deleting the above. Consequence of Devotary needing to kill tonight is that unless we hit the eliminator with one of the lynch or Devotary’s kill, we’re going to end up tomorrow with a v/e/n lynch, giving Devotary control of who wins. Objectively, this isn’t a bad route - if I assign a 25% chance to each of Illwei, Araris, TUA and Szeth being evil, then we have a 50% chance of winning outright today, and a further 50% chance of winning tomorrow, assuming Devotary 1) doesn’t prefer the eliminators winning to the village winning, 2) chooses not to end the game with neither side winning, and 3) has no greater reason to suspect one of the two who remain over the other. Further breaking this train of thought because I’ve recalled that the interaction of Araris and my roles make action scanning two players possible. Frustratingly, this mechanically solves the game (predicated on an acceptance of v!Orlok) if Devotary didn’t need to kill today: We lynch Szeth or Illwei, have Araris swap places with the other of them, I scan Araris, and TUA protects me. If I die, it would mean TUA killed rather than protected me, and so is evil. If Araris is evil, I’ll see him making the kill. If whoever doesn’t die to the lynch is evil, I’ll see them make the kill. Had thought this worked if Devotary doesn’t kill, and we don’t lynch anyone today (now don’t think it does) - we would go into next cycle with four players, meeting Devo’s win condition, and all of the above still works, without requiring trust in me: TUA’s action is accounted for by needing to protect me. Araris’ action through swapping places, mine through scanning Araris, one of Illwei/Szeth through my scan hitting whoever Araris targets, and the other through elimination. Thinking this through, this doesn’t distinguish TUA killing someone else from protecting me, so breaks down. I think the same applies above - e!TUA could kill Araris, meaning my scan hits no one, and I then can’t distinguish mechanically TUA from whichever of Illwei/Szeth we don’t lynch. Not sure this actually is mechanically solvable - will come back to it tomorrow, but tomorrow will focus primarily on reading players.
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My proposed plan is to go through the thread again, looking at our remaining players. If you’d asked me , I’d have cleared TUA, and so voted off Araris whilst asking Devo to kill Szeth. With your return, I’m not sure - I want to get a read on you independent of your role, and being so wrong about Stink has reduced my confidence in my reads more generally, so am going to look at again at TUA. @The Unknown Aon @Szeth_Pancakes, if you had to pick one player to lynch and one to kill, who would you name?
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Point taken re lynch/vig kill (past midnight here) - although that makes the point even stronger. Why assume that the vig kill would happen before the elim kill? I don’t see how STINK performing the kill wasn’t considered.
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I don’t like the clearing of Szeth based on the absence of Szeth killing - it relies on OOA, which we don’t know. I don’t quite understand how we’ve arrived at consensus that the lynch is before the kill.
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Could you please try to read my posts charitably, Illwei? I don’t think you and I will ever see eye to eye on how to play SE, and suspect the nature of our character is such that that we’d grate each other regardless, but I’ve been making a genuine effort to try to give you a fair and balanced hearing since AG8. I’d ask that you do the same. Honestly though, I’m not worried that I’m going to die. I’m confident that should you reread C3 and C5, the nature and tone of my interactions with Archer and Stick vindicate me. I’d also point to last cycle - you yourself point out that the effort I put in was unnecessary. Please, read it again - I really do think it makes it clear that I’ve been attempting to solve the game. Once more, I’d point to my end of cycle post to Devotary - I think that illustrates well my worry about the JNV lynch. More importantly, why would I have updated my request to Devotary from killing Szeth as the hedge against v!JNV to killing STINK or Szeth as the hedge if I was on a team with Stink?
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Bracketing Illwei’s alignment, why wouldn’t a kill have gone in last cycle? STINK was alive, and we don’t know that the OOA has the lynch come before the kill. I don’t know that we can mechanically clear Illwei on this basis. With regards to your own alignment, I’d point out that I wasn’t pushing you last cycle so much as trying to work out what eliminator pairings were possible. Please do look at my analysis, as I hope it shows my thought process as I went through it. With the STINK flip, I’m now more suspicious of you from his defence of your role last cycle, and from the Stick vote, which looks more plausibly like a bus. I’d point you all again to C3, and to my interactions with Archer - firstly on their role, and then on accusing them of lying about what Matrim said, having broken down the consequences of what Archer claimed Matrim had answered. e!Orlok entails that I threw Archer under the bus, taking out the elim information reduction, and then chose to bus Stick beyond that. Honestly, I’m quite proud of myself for working out Archer and Stick. Into eliminator team size? I still can’t see a five player elim team - I think starting with 15-5-1 is broken in the best of circumstances, and honestly have been pretty aggrieved by the balance even believing it to be 16-4-1. I think Archer made a monumental error claiming to be able to speak to the dead, as otherwise the eliminators could have played a zero information slow game, building up Arson kills, all in a blackout. It was damaging enough even with that. As much as I respect TJ, I genuinely don’t know how that wasn’t spotted by the balance committee as an issue. Throw in a serial killer, and a 33% elim ratio, and this game would be one of the most unbalanced I’ve seen in a long while.
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My own working assumption is that Araris was a distancing vote on Stick, that my own case against Stick made it impossible for Araris to move his vote, and that STINK’s vote was opportunistic. I realise how my clearing of STINK looks, @Illwei, but read STINK’s vote in response to my argument as village, feeling that it sealed any chance of Stick dying. I didn’t see Stick as a bus, as three eliminators C5 is a very strong position to throw away - suspicion of Araris was predicated on his vote being pinned. I’d ask that you read the end of C5 and last cycle again - I hope you can see that I’ve been making a genuine attempt at solving the game, but that I was working from a mistaken assumption. I’d also note that I did suggest to Devotary that STINK be a potential hedging kill to JNV, alongside Szeth, right at the end of the cycle. I’m going to return to trying to solve for the remaining eliminator (and am convinced there is only one left - with Devo neutral, I don’t think 15-5-1 works, particularly with blackout and a janitor). Araris is, obviously, the starting point here. With Illwei now alive again, I think we must be at 4-1-1, which is lylo, as any non-Araris kill Devo makes, along with the lynch and elim kill, takes us to three players next cycle, one of which is neutral. Thankfully, provided we do get the eliminator, Devotary can win with the village, and so doesn’t need to be treated as hostile. @Devotary of Spontaneity, answering your question about my action following: C1 I attempted to follow Kas, and was switched to following Araris, discovering that Araris targeted Kas C2 I attempted to follow Araris, and was switched to following Aman, who targeted no one. C3 I followed Devotary, who visited TUA. C4 I followed Illwei, who visited no one. C5 I followed JNV, who visited no one. C6 I followed Szeth, who visited no one.
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It very much does. I’m sure the dead were having a marvellous time laughing themselves yet further into the grave at my posts. Beyond acknowledging my mistake, and committing to redoing the connections analysis, I just want to acknowledge both @Devotary of Spontaneity for her kill, and @Thaidakar the Ghostblood, as a consequence, for ensuring we didn’t kill Devo two cycles ago… My gut instinct is that whilst v!JNV doesn’t entail e!Araris, e!Stink, and his vote on Stick, does support e!Araris. @Illwei, welcome back! A fresh perspective on this is very much welcome.
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@Thaidakar the Ghostblood (can see you viewing the thread) you’re voting on JNV - what are your thoughts on Araris? If you had to see one of Szeth or TUA killed, which would you choose?
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Can I ask your thoughts on killing in the opposite direction to JNV, to hedge the risk of getting this wrong? Would suggest either Szeth or Stink (as a bus of Stick by Araris doesn’t clear STINK to the same degree as we’re doing). @Araris Valerian, if JNV isn’t evil, who would you suggest the two remaining eliminators are?
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If we take e!JNV as given, we then can clear Araris. If we further take v!Stink and v!Orlok as given, alongside n!Devotary, we have Thaidakar, Szeth, and The Unknown Aon as our pool for our remaining eliminator. Szeth’s first reaction to seeing today’s rollover was to clear Araris - which is incompatible with e!JNV pushing his lynch. I think e!JNV entails v!Szeth, leaving us with The Unknown Aon and Thaidakar as our pool of suspects. TUA has given us very little to evaluate, and Thaidakar evidence in both directions. Last cycle JNV put TUA in his “do not kill” list, with Thaidakar in his middle category. Thaidakar has voted for JNV (alongside Araris and Szeth). I think e!JNV leads to e!TUA. I’ve been mentally clearing TUA on their D1 claim as Regular, and their D2 suspicion of Stick, both of which I think are more likely from a villager. I’m not firmly committed to v!TUA, although don’t see why e!JNV asks Devotary not to make a kill with e!TUA, when Devotary’s target list was Stink, Szeth, and Dannnex. [My instinct would be to lynch Thaidakar and ask Devo to shoot TUA if e!JNV. My guess is that if JNV is lynched, one of @STINK and I are hit by the elim kill, and Devotary kills a villager (so probable the other of us). This would leave 3-1-1 next cycle, so with a lynch on one of them, Devo’s kill on the other, and the elim kill Devotary ends in the final three players.] On the other side of things, if we have e!Araris, I think we can rule out e!JNV, and so again are only considering Szeth, TUA, and Thaidakar. I’ll note that Araris’ mid-cycle switch onto Stick last cycle makes bussing possible, and so e!Araris would reduce the certainty of v!STINK, but v!STINK feels pretty safe to me. If we have e!Araris (and would ask @STINK that you read just C5, to look at their switch from defence of Stick to being the second vote on her (after Illwei) to give me a second opinion on this, then e!Szeth is more plausible. Araris has asked Devotary to kill Thaidakar, making e!Araris/e!Thaidakar unlikely, leading me to a pairing with Szeth or TUA. Working through this, I can’t see Thaidakar paired with either Araris or JNV - so (acknowledging that it’s possible that we have v!Araris and v!JNV), will return to removing them from my suspicion pool. At this point, I’m minded to suggest that we lynch JNV, and that @Devotary of Spontaneity kills Szeth tonight. I think if JNV flips village, there’s a strong chance of e!Szeth, whereas if JNV flips elim, v!Szeth prolongs the game for Devotary. Either way, we end up at 3-1-1 tomorrow. I haven’t considered worlds with v/v Araris/JNV fully. Again, however, our pool there is small - Thaidakar, Szeth, and TUA. (Note again, this is predicated on v!Stink, and I’m sure I’m being cursed by the dead doc for this assumption, but it’s one I’m making and sticking with). Further thoughts on these worlds may follow, but happy with primary conclusion: Thaidakar unlikely with Araris or JNV, Szeth a very good hedging kill against v!JNV.
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I think the argument is less whether it’s useful, and more whether it’s balanced for a villager to hold, but I’m certainly not suggesting the role as the reason to lynch him, at this point. I think the only compelling argument is that of hedging - are we sufficiently confident of e!JNV to risk a 2-2-1 next cycle? The answer may well be yes - and I do think JNV is our best shot at an elim. Certainly doing anything other than lynching them relies on the buy in it Devotary (although given her claimed goal, a 3-1-1 next cycle guarantees her victory the following cycle (lynch + elim kill results in three players remaining, even without her kill). I’m at a doctor’s appointment from 2pm to 4:45pm today, but will be back just before rollover. In the interim I intend to look at potential pairings - if JNV is evil, who is his teammate? Likewise, if Araris is evil, who would he be on a team with? I’m moderately committed to v!Stink - I think 3 eliminators with 11 players remaining is too strong a position to throw away for a bus, even if Stick was having difficulty arguing her innocence. I think the same argument applies to a weaker extent to Araris, who was voting on Stick before I did, but when they weren’t under real lynch pressure, and who would have struggled to withdraw from lynching Stick after focus moved onto them. (Increasingly talking myself into v!Araris, which again just sets my hackles off about where JNV’s teammate is). Post to follow looking at pairings, but been burnt already by refresh this cycle, so will post what I’ve got now)
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I think the case is materially less strong that that against JNV - the primary argument for lynching him in my mind is hedging our position. My C1 and C2 notes on Araris are as follows: C1: 1) Thought Matrim's D1 reads list a sham 2) Agrees with Aman about v!Archer 3) Moves onto voting for Matrim C1 when Stick overtook Matrim in the vote count 4) Retracts on Matrim close to the end of C1 C2: 1) Archer supported Araris' C1 Matrim reasoning 2) Is village read by Stick 3) Thought C1 was v/v, doesn't think a flip from Stick would be the worst thing 4) Votes on Devotary with Archer, Stick, and JNV Beyond this, we have his role - swapping places with his target, meaning that he's immune to a kill unless the eliminators guess his target correctly. I think Devotary makes a good argument about Karnatheon, suggesting that unless we thought the eliminators had three starting players, we have two eliminators remaining, and are in a 5-2-1 situation. Whilst I'm a supporter of flipping JNV, I dislike the lack of pushback in this situation. If we're wrong about JNV, and Devotary hits a villager, we end up 2-2-1 next cycle. If JNV is a villager, I think Araris is more likely to be evil. There's a part of me inclined to take a safe 3-1-1 (by killing both JNV and Araris) over betting the house on JNV's flip, even if I do think it's a fairly safe one. @Araris Valerian, you were given a soothe item at one point. Did you ever use this, and if so when and on whom?
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Jumping in to apologise for my near inactivity this game. It has become very apparent that I just cannot manage to play two games simultaneously. I expect that the MR (or my participation in it) will conclude one way or the other soon, and at that point will engage properly here. I've (for better or worse) grown rather adept at catching up on games, and will aim to at least vote in the D3 lynch.
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@The Unknown Aon, rollover is in 7.5 hours. Without needing to provide any justification, could you give two names for the players you’d be happiest to see dead? If you have no preference, then any two names are fine.
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I'm working through the thread (about midway through C3 presently), focusing on the remaining players, and whilst I'll be done before rollover want to get my thoughts down in time for the American players to see tonight. To start, we have eight players left. Arguing from balance in a blackout game with an arsonist and a janitor on a team feels like a mistake, but even ignoring the balance issues two eliminator kills would present, I'm prepared to clear Devotary of being evil on the basis of her C1/C2 suspicion of Stick (which was remarkably on point), and the Stick/Archer pressure on her that resulted from it. I think it's much, much more likely that she is a serial killer, and whilst we're just taking her on her word that her win condition is to be amongst the last three players, rather than having to kill us all, don't see that we have a choice in the matter. Along with player behaviour, we have the following lynches to help us consider who remaining might be an eliminator (I'm going to mark Illwei as village both for her suspicion of Stick, and more importantly, having been hit by the eliminator kill): Cycle One: Matrim's Dice (5): Experience, Ashbringer, Karnatheon, Archer, _Stick_, JNV, Thaidakar the Ghostblood Karnatheon (2): Kasimir, Araris Valerian, Tani, Amanuensis _Stick_ (5): Illwei, Matrim's Dice, StrikerEZ, Devotary of Spontaneity Cycle Two: Karnatheon (6): Experience, Kasimir, StrikerEZ, Ashbringer, Tani, Devotary of Spontaneity, Amanuensis Devotary of Spontaneity (5): Araris Valerian, Karnatheon, Archer, _Stick_, JNV StrikerEZ (2): STINK, Thaidakar the Ghostblood Cycle Three: Archer (10): Kasimir, Araris Valerian, Ashbringer, Tani, Devotary of Spontaneity, _Stick_, JNV, Amanuensis, Thaidakar the Ghostblood, Orlok Tsubodai Amanuensis (2): Illwei, Archer Cycle Four: Tani (4): Illwei, The Unknown Aon, Devotary of Spontaneity, Thaidakar the Ghostblood Devotary of Spontaneity (3): Araris Valerian, Ashbringer, Tani, Orlok Tsubodai Illwei (2): _Stick_, JNV Just lost two hours work to a page refresh. It's now 1:30am and I think I might actually cry, so I'm just going to have to summarise where I got to. Clearing Stink circumstances of their vote last cycle condemning Stick. Clearing TUA for suspicion of Stick C2, their response to Archer C1. Szeth - unsure about. Stick suggests they might be e/e with Tani in C2, and I struggle to see why they wouldn't have read C5 with e!Stick as e!Szeth. Thaidakar I find unreadable, which I normally see as suspicious, but always struggle to read chaotic players. Struggle to understand how they could misread their role as doing nothing if it hits a villager whilst claiming the following cycle that it only works on epics, but they were determined to vote on Archer C1/C2, going so far as accusing him of being an elim for PMing the GMs. Conclusion - likely village. Araris - still caught up on their role presenting balance issues, hadn't otherwise got a strong read. Not likely e/e with JNV - who I am most suspicious of. JNV - tied repeatedly to Stick and Archer in voting, has this odd post when voting Matrim over Stick: Dislike their C5, although defence of Stick who was near certain to be lynched as elim feels odd. Not committed to multiple elims - think e!Karnatheon plausible given e!Archer, e!Stick, and e!JNV. Expecting four deaths this cycle - lynch, elim kill, Devo, and TUA. If remaining elims are amongst less active players will be disappointed at how they've chosen to play. Initially wanted to suggest we lynched Araris and had Devo kill JNV - can't see both being village, but more inclined now to just vote on JNV, although I dislike the lack of push back to the lynch - where's the elim counterproposal? Will try to retype my notes tomorrow morning, if I can stomach it again - feeling really quite upset about losing what this post was.
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One of them almost certainly was. My argument is that the other makes much more sense as a targeted kill than a random kill. If worry about the eliminators taking out a lurcher was such a factor in your decision making, why take the shot at the lurcher yourself? If you hit their self-protect, you guaranteed the eliminators could kill them the following cycle themselves. Either you wanted them dead, which was your original argument based on D1 suspicion, or you worried about the eliminators hitting them. You can't both want them dead and worry about the eliminators killing them. This feels like an excuse, not reasoning for your actions. It very much does assume that you knew Archer was going to flip - I'm arguing that you knew that because the two of you are teammates. Why pick that cycle to hit Experience as a villager? Again, it feels too convenient that you happened to decide to kill a village lurcher the very same cycle the eliminators' strategy of avoiding alignment flips fell apart. Why would I have gone so hard after the contradictions in Archer's claimed answers from Matrim if I were evil? I'd be grateful if you'd explain why you feel unsure.
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@Illwei, I appreciate the apology. For my part, I was frustrated beforehand anyway, both due to life and the game, and so probably took it worse than I ought to have. This is from Stick the cycle we had the string of deaths. That cycle, we had Amanuensis, Kashmir, Experience, and StrikerEZ die. Thaidakar claims the kill of StrikerEZ, and Stick claims to have attacked Experience, with their “Haywire” therefore hitting Amanuensis or Kasimir. I have a few issues with this. 1) Amanuensis and Kasimir were key village players. It strikes me as materially more likely that they were targeted than that they were conveniently hit by a random kill. 2) If Stick’s role works as they claim, why didn’t they explicitly ask Experience to protect themselves, relying on the collateral to clear Experience, as opposed to risking two village deaths, including that of a lurcher. 3) I’m afraid I don’t buy a role that mechanically clears people. I’ll acknowledge it’s possible, but is another factor reducing the likelihood of Stick’s claim. 4) The timing of this - just as Archer was killed, and so deaths became acceptable to the eliminators again. I think there’s enough that’s too convenient here to justify a vote at this stage of the game - to believe Stick, we need to accept a role of a very unusual nature, that they happened to use the cycle eliminators could kill again, that happened to take out a village lurcher and a key village analyser. That they keep emphasising the role hit a player of their own faction feels like an eliminator trying to claim proven village from their role - it also strikes me as very off. @Devotary of Spontaneity, I think if your win condition is as you claim then you’re going to need to help us take out a few eliminators to get to your preferred endgame. @Illwei, fancy moving back to Stick?
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So, to be clear, you’d have accused Ash of being evil had I been killed and Ash had lived, using the same logic. Yet Ash died and flipped village. Does this not say something about the quality of the logic as a tool for determining alignment? I apologise for letting my frustration show through so clearly, but think the point needed to be made. With regards to the rest of your post, I addressed Araris above, and the absence of early night kills at length, just before rollover - I shall quote that now.
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I can recall falling prey to this logic myself a long time ago, and so am doing my best not to let my frustration turn into undue incivility, but this is ridiculous. 1) Even assuming I should be threat killed, I spent two cycles behind on the game barely contributing, and only became active mid-C3. 2) Last cycle, I was focusing hard on an SK with a kill. Very plausible that Devotary would kill me instead (and indeed was what I was expecting). 3) I can’t and wouldn’t claim sole credit for catching Archer, but did repeatedly call them out for inconsistencies on what they claimed Matrim said, and pushed hard for their lynch. 4) This is my second game back after a hiatus, and I died early in the AG. Very plausible that the eliminators decided not to kill me early before I could engage. Beyond that, I just want to note for the record that it is deeply unpleasant to be on the receiving end of this logic. I’d draw parallels with Wilson’s frustration during AG3, before she knew I’d caught her from a wording slip up (although in this case I’m not evil). It’s not logic that allows refutation - it’s a statement that you believe I must be evil any time I survive beyond the early cycles of a game. Will you call for me to be lynched in cycle five of the next game I play that we survive? Why should I bother playing if I’m to be lynched on who I am, rather than what I say and do?
