little wilson

@randuir Actually, no. What would you say if I said I soothed you? Or attempted to, anyway....

We're not voting yet. Just nominating. After we've got all the nominations, we'll put up a poll so people can vote on those nominated. I will thank you for the nomination but I will have to decline again. I've got too much going on still and I really can't afford to be distracted with a super-active game at work. Perhaps next year, if things are less busy.

Follow-up question: why did you retract your vote from Rand? That vote retraction is what put you in the lead and got you lynched. Had you left it, it would've been a tie, and nothing would've happened.

Arinian. Ecthelion. Unlike Lopen, I don't think Ecth is cleared. See, I went back and looked at his Snapped Thug claim. It's far too vague. Given that Night 4 is right in the middle of cycle 4, does 'last cycle' mean Night 2 (in which he would've found out he snapped on Day 3) or Night 3 (in which he would've found out on Day 4)? 'Last cycle' seems to be a brilliant way to make people say "Oh, he snapped, and he wouldn't be claiming that if he hadn't because someone could easily dispute that." But the Snapped of Night 2 is probably going to read 'last cycle' and think "So he's the Night 3 Snapped. Awesome." And then Night 3 Snapped is going to read 'last cycle' and think the exact opposite. (This assumes that the second convert wasn't the Night 2 Snapped; if the second convert did snap Night 2, then they'd know there's not going to be any issues with claims). Ecth, which night exactly did you allegedly snap? Additionally, Jon's post at the start of the night seems like a prompt. A way for a teammate to help another teammate dispel some of the suspicion around them. Given that Jon would've certainly been evil by this time, I can't help but wonder if that's exactly what it is. I think Ecth is the Inquisitor. I'd soothe him this cycle, but honestly, I don't think he's smoked, since he's unlikely to be Seeked. The Seeker would probably believe his Snapped Thug claim, at least enough to scan other, better, targets first. And it would be better to leave him open to vote manipulation, because if a vote manip failed on him, people would wonder why a near-certain cleared player was smoked offensively when there was so little chance of him being seeked. Why not offensively smoke someone else? Oh, and the kill on Meta makes sense this way too, since they couldn't kill Kipper because the only other person to have survived a lynch other than Kipper was Ecth, and Kipper's death would put unnecessary attention back on Ecth. But killing Meta gets them a Pewter spike as well (which is a good thing to have) and gives no information at the same time. Not an act of desperation at all.

The lack of Mistings killed for cycles in a row and therefore the lack of conversions. The Inquisitor leapt at both early conversion opportunities, despite them being copper when there are far more useful spike types (especially with village emotional allomancers trying to find copper clouds, as was public by the time the second conversion happened). To me, that indicates that he's trying to build up his team as fast as he can. However, he hasn't been able to convert anyone since night 3, and if they didn't kill a Misting last night, they probably wouldn't be able to convert anyone night 6 either. A three cycle dearth would suck for a person trying to build up their team quickly. I don't see Inquisitor Kipper killing Meta if he wanted a Pewter spike. I could see him going after Ecth, but not a complete inactive. Oh, and regarding the questions about what did the Inquisitor do if not kill Aman or Dalinar? I imagine he used one of his Uber powers both cycles. If I had to guess, I'd say Uber Bronze, to find Mistings.

A Coinshot claimed to one of my contacts (I very intentionally haven't mentioned the identity of all of my contacts so as to protect the Coinshot from the intermediary being converted. The intermediary could be someone I've mentioned or it could be someone else. Who knows? ). This Coinshot has apparently claimed the Aman kill. I mentioned that towards the end of the last day turn. From what I know, they've also claimed Dalinar's kill as well, but not Ornstein's. I think it's risky to assume that Hero was attacked because of a leak. That's possible, sure. But who's to say that the Inquisitor doesn't have Uber Bronze and hasn't seeked Hero? Maybe he saw that Hero was a Lurcher and really wanted the Iron spike so they attacked Hero, hoping that he'd be protecting someone other than himself. I thought the leak had merit last cycle, but with Kipper's survival and things not matching up at all with him as the Inquisitor, I don't think it's the leak. I think it was just fluke.

I feel relatively safe in saying that Kipper isn't evil. My reasoning: He survived the lynch. Jon is almost guaranteed to have been the first convert, so if Kipper is evil, he's either the Inquisitor or the second convert. The second convert couldn't have survived based on their role alone, which means that either Kipper could be the Inquisitor or the Inquisitor has an Uber-Iron that can save from lynches. Let's go into both of those: Kipper is the Inquisitor Aman's death: Kipper would've known for a fact that Aman died to a Coinshot. While he likes mind-games, I don't see him taking that heavy of a correct stance if he were the Inquisitor. UBERSTEEL: I could see him sacrificing this with the first conversion, knowing that his new convert can make kills. It's a risky move, but if it pays off, it's great. Jondesu: Not counting this game, Kipper has only played 2 games with Jon: MR19 and AG3. Kipper died in cycle 1 in MR19 and cycle 2 in AG3. He's never really played with Jon, so why convert him over any number of other players that Kipper's actually familiar with. I'd guess Rae or maybe Lopen would be a good first convert for InquisiKip. Possibly Mark or Aman, if Aman had survived for long enough. But Jon makes no sense. UBERCOPPER: I really don't see him getting rid of Uber Copper this early, even with a Smoker. Ornstein: At the beginning of the game, Kipper encouraged the Inquisitor to avoid targets like me or Meta, but I don't see him attacking a semi-active player on their first game. When Kipper is evil, the kills his team makes are what I would call typical early targets for eliminators: fear kills or people with important roles who've claimed to the wrong people. In LG12, two of their first three attacks were fear kills and the last was a known Seeker. In LG24, they were limited to a mega kill every third cycle, and when they were first able to use it on Cycle 3, they killed 5 people. 2 of those were fearkills, 2 were other relatively important village roles who'd claimed to them, and the last was a kill role that was mostly unplanned (only one of those 5 was on their first game). I don't see him changing that up and attacking players early on in their first game. Meta: The Meta kill is an act of desperation, from a team who needs an additional convert so bad that they're willing to attack a complete inactive to ensure they succeed. That is really not a move Kipper would make. Like, at all. Ever. The thought of him making that move makes me laugh absurdly hard. The Inquisitor has Uber-Iron and can save from lynches This is broken. Absurdly so. It would mean that we would never be able to lynch any of them, and if the Inquisitor does have Uber Pewter like in LG2, even sending a Coinshot after him wouldn't kill him. So unless we got massive coordination from the village to pull off a hammer that miraculously the Spiked never learned about, they'd block every lynch on one of them. And if the Coinshot died, they basically win because the village has no way of stopped them. Especially if the Tineye dies and PMs go down. Yeah, I seriously doubt this is a thing. So...yeah. I seriously doubt Kipper is evil. I'm going to vote for Arinian. I could see him converting Jon, since they've played 4 games together, though I'm not sure they've ever worked together, and they've certainly never been on an evil team together. But the way Arinian just kind of jumped on the Kipper vote last time after I was like "I'm nigh certain Kipper is evil" struck me as a "Heh. You're wrong, but sure, I'll follow you along with this if it'll get you to not be suspicious of me" type thing.

Yeah, I was pretty sure Jon was spiked and I didn't want to give the spiked a heads-up about what was probably going to happen, in case the Inquisitor has an Uber Iron power and could've saved him. The only people who knew were me, Hero, my intermediary contact and the Coinshot. And then when I remembered his comment about copper during the day, I was even more certain, since it was either misdirection to make it seem like he couldn't be a smoker or still motivated by evil because it encouraged using copper in a way to cover others but make yourself seem clean. And village smokers should've been keeping their copper off.

I was right! Just so everyone knows, I attempted to soothe Jon during the day and when that failed, I arranged to have him seeked through death.

It's sounds like it was probably just PI in that game giving it an all-around negative feel then. Knowing that, I'd be far more willing to give it another shot, because I do really like the idea of it.

Thanks for investigating that. Prime Intellect was the major issue in that game, but there were other players that kind of fed off of his negative energy, and even after he was called out on it by a moderator, he never stopped and no one mentioned it again (not just moderators. Players too, since players can also be like "hey, maybe you should be a little nicer?"). For people coming from a forum that is generally nice (we've at times dubbed our players "Gentleman Killers"), being dropped into an atmosphere like isn't just a shock. It can be a turn-off since it can kill the desire to continue playing that game. I know that was an issue with Hael towards the end of his short time alive: he could barely even motivate himself to post because he knew it would result in him being called an idiot and that his his ideas were stupid. While the latter could be taken as going after the ball and not the player, it's a pretty thin line. But it wasn't just Prime that got me. It was kind of the atmosphere as a whole, I guess. I feel like last year, the Championship was pitched as a way to bring all of these communities together to see how we all play and find these new communities that are like us. A sort of camaraderie among all of us internet folk who like to kill each other for fun. But that's not what it ended up like. It felt more like a a vast majority of the players saying "This is the right way to play, and if you don't play this way, you're wrong and stupid." If you don't conform, you'll die. But if you conform, then you're not really representing your forum, and that was kind of the whole point. To show people how different forums play. And obviously when you bring that many people from different forums together, there are going to be differences between not only playstyle but also culture. Yet there was very little tolerance or consideration for those differences. I'm pretty sure only one person in that entire first game actually defended another person by saying that she was pretty sure the issues were due to cultural differences. She was one of the mafia, but I can't remember if the person she was defending was mafia or not. Anyway. Yeah. I feel like there was a disconnect between how it was pitched and what it ended up being like. It was very different from the pitch.

Aonar is generally less of a troll when he's evil, from my experience with him. That's not to say he's not a troll at all, but when he goes full-on troll mode, he's either embracing the fact that he's known to be evil (not the case here) or he's just having fun messing with people (villager). I don't think Kipper is the Inquisitor. I think he's the second convert. Kipper role-fishes all the time, regardless of his alignment, so I don't think that says anything. But if you want to know what Hero is talking about, one of my contacts claims to have gotten a Coinshot claim. I trust this source though I'm not going to name them here for obvious reasons. They say the Coinshot has claimed the Aman kill, and that they also attacked Meta last night (based on my suggestion in the thread). Now, Kipper was insistent that Aman was killed by a Coinshot. I think the Inquisitor and his first convert believed that Kipper knew the identity of the Coinshot, so they converted him so he would tell them and they could kill the Coinshot and get that steel spike. However, Kipper didn't actually know the Coinshot's identity, but he did have a guess about the Seeker, so they went after the Seeker instead. As Lopen has mentioned, they no doubt knew this had a high chance of revealing Kipper, but if the spike didn't take, then there wasn't much of a loss if he died, especially if it meant killing a Seeker, since that would give them additional spike for an additional convert to replace the loss of Kipper. Add to that that Kipper was role-fishing and had probably gotten a few claims, and he's really not a bad idea for a convert.

I concur with this completely. If Kipper is evil, as I'm becoming more and more convinced that he is, I wouldn't be at all surprised to discover that Len is a teammate (I'd wager he's the first convert) and that Arinian or Rand is the Inquisitor. I'm leaning more towards Arinian right now, given his 'reason' for voting for Aonar. I'd also like to note that if Kipper is evil and the Inquisitor has UberZinc/Brass, it's basically a certainty that he'll use it to save Kipper. Yitzi, you keep posting, but you're not voting. Would you mind adding your thoughts about all this and maybe voting for someone?

I'm of two minds about participating this year. Last year was a less-than-pleasant experience, since they didn't moderate their forum according to their etiquette policy. There was a lot of name-calling and the only reason the moderators came in and said anything about it was because Hael reported it. Even then, it didn't stop. Quite frankly, the behavior of most of the competitors would've resulted in them being banned here on the Shard after less than a week (one or two wouldn't have lasted a day). However, if we're going to do it, I would nominate Aman. I'll be honest: last year, I wouldn't have gone for him because he was too aggressive. But while he's still aggressive now, it's not overly so, which is good. He's got thick skin, so if the same situation as last year cropped up again (likely), it wouldn't negatively affect him. And he's very active when in a game. The only question is if he has the time for it right now.

Take this from someone who is familiar with Aonar: he likes to troll. Particularly when he's good, if he finds an opportunity to troll, he will jump on it in a heartbeat. This lynch against him has brought out that obstinate side of him. Every time you ask him to share his suspicions or place another vote on him or request him to do anything really at this point, he has a bit of fun with you, because that's what he does. He enjoys it greatly. Yes, he wants to die, but the reason for wanting to die is because he wants to make all of you have to rethink your ability to read him. Because he's village. I'm nigh certain of that fact, particularly because of how he's behaving right now. Lynch him and you won't find a Spiked. Is he being frustrating? Yes. He is. He's doing it intentionally. Don't fall into his trap.

Fascinating. I was wondering who'd been saved. As I said last cycle, I'd had a feeling one of my contacts had been converted (technically, I would fall into the group of potential second converts, but since I know I wasn't converted, I personally am looking at the others). Later in that cycle, I was reasonably certain Rae, Aonar and Hero were not likely to have been the convert, which narrowed it down to Lopen or Kipper. And between the two, particularly with the attack on Hero and the strangeness with the supposed seeker "claim", I'm more suspicious of Kipper. Also, @Jondesu, yes I included myself in that group for the simple reason that my vote was negated on cycle 3. Copper had a default position of on. A smoker can shut it off at night, but on cycle 3, just after it took, the smoker wouldn't have had time to shut it off. I don't think they'll shut it off at all, but even if they do, they didn't then. Therefore, Figberts and I are the two players most guaranteed to not be the spiked smoker. Had someone else been soothed, I'd be saying that about them too. It has nothing to do with me. It's the facts. I'm not saying I couldn't be evil. I'm saying I couldn't be the first convert. None of those manipulated after the first conversion could be.

I'm 99.9% certain Meta isn't the Inquisitor. He would never go seemingly inactive to throw off suspicion if he's evil, particularly given how infrequently he's been evil. @ElenionI know a few people are going off the assumption there's Uber Brass/Zinc. I think either would be a good replacement for Uber Tin. And Uber Zinc that doesn't negate your own vote would be an easy addition. We don't have to worry about a Spiked Rioter right now though (at least not one that operates the same as normal Rioting) because the Inquisitor could only have smokers or regulars (if the spike didn't take) on the team thus far. Unlike @Herowannabe, I'm only willing to write off those who've had their votes negated of being the first convert, who is almost certainly a smoker. We know the Inquisitor wasn't smoked last cycle though, because there was a kill and I believe the convert made that kill (which means they couldn't have included the Inquisitor in their cloud). Therefore, the Inquisitor could absolutely be in the group whose vote was negated. Those who cannot be the first convert (aka the spiked smoker): Figberts, Wilson, Arinian, Kipper, Yitzi. Based on vote manipulation alone, none of the above are cleared of being the Inquisitor or the second convert.

I'm going to guess that the attacked person who wasn't identified was lurched, and Meta is identified because he's a Thug. No, that's right. I'm pretty sure Len was more meaning that everyone would know it had worked or not, because otherwise only the Seeker would and anyone they're in contact with (if they've told anyone they're a Seeker). Um. The Inquisitor gave up UberCopper, so if the Seeker were to scan the Inquisitor and the Inquisitor wasn't smoked by a teammate, he would show up as the Inquisitor.

So far, the Inquisitor's Uber metals have followed exactly what they were in LG2, so I'm guessing Uber Pewter would be the same as well (Uber Tin is likely the only one that changed). The Inquisitor there could survive two attacks, so if Ecth is an actual Thug, he'll die if a single Coinshot attacks him. If he's the Inquisitor, he'll survive, but then he'd die to the lynch the following day, since he'd be down to a single life left. For now, I'm willing to take him at his word, since claiming to have snapped on a night when only a single person snapped is risky. If anyone else claims, we know one of them is lying (this is actually how Cessie got caught in LG2). Ecth has claimed ballsier things though, so if anyone else snapped, please say something to someone in a PM so it'll get out into the thread. Anyway. I was curious about vote manips so I looked at the votes. Vote tally at end of day (pre-vote manip): Ecth: Jondesu, Araris, Rand HH: Kipper Mage: Len Meta: Hero Rae: Arinian Rand: Lopen, Wilson Kipper: Mark Hero: Yitzi Vote tally in writeup: Ecthelion III: Araris Valerian, Jondesu, Randuir (3)Magestar: Elenion (1)Metacognition: Hero (1)Randuir: Lopen, Wilson (2)Lopen: Magestar (1)Kipper: Mark IV (1) No one was rioted to anyone else (though a riot to a no-vote is possible), but we've got three vote negations: Arinian (which was me), Yitzi, and Kipper. There are 24 players alive right now. We're batting at a 71% activity rate in terms of posts, and only 46% in terms of official votes. While that's not as bad as it could be, it could also certainly be better. I'm not going to ping those who didn't post, since Lopen already did that during the day, but it would really be nice to get more voting. Rather than any Coinshot killing Ecth, I'd actually propose for Spartacus or Meta be taken out, since they're completely inactive. This would also be a good way to learn if we even have a Coinshot right now. There's a chance we don't.

Eh, this is about the level of activity I had Cycle 2 as well. Cycle 3 fell on a weekend for me, where I generally have more free time, if I find something interesting (as the little debate with Drake was). Weekdays, however, I work full-time and while I can usually keep up with the thread at work, I can't really spend time posting, and if my time after work is taken (as it always is on Tuesday and happened to be yesterday), I'll just naturally be less active. Additionally, I didn't really have much to say because it's not really going to be terribly helpful for me to say that I'm paranoid of all of my PM contacts, thanks to the second conversion. On that subject, though, I'm nearly certain one of them was converted last night. Not because they're talking to me but more because of who they are. I've also seen practically nothing from any of them to give me any reason to trust them this cycle. True. But I rather imagine that the Inquisitor has better things to do than using a rioting/soothing action every day/night. Bronze, for example, would be rather considerably better, to find those Mistings that the Inquisitor needs to kill to convert. Smokers aren't exactly as useful as Coinshots, after all. I rather think the Inquisitor and the first convert are relatively new. This is based entirely on the results of last night. The Ornstein kill and giving up Ubercopper. This isn't the work of an R&R (regular and recurring) player. Most players from at least Mark and before (and possibly a few even more recent than Mark) wouldn't kill someone who is even partially active fairly early in their first game, even if they're trying to mess with reads and make it hard to predict their kills. Ornstein was less active but he wasn't completely inactive. Most of the R&R players leave brand new players alone until at least mid-game unless there's a very good reason not to (on that note, I would suggest any seeker to scan OmeGaster, since Ornstein and OmeGaster know each other IRL and that could've been a reason for the kill, though I doubt it. It's the only actual reason I can think of). Then there's giving up Ubercopper. General thought process for a newer player: UberCopper only does this one thing, which sure is cool and kind of useful, but now I have this convert who's a Smoker, so I don't really need cover for myself since they can protect me, and anyway, look at all of these other cool abilities I want to use them all. *gives up UberCopper* Thought process of most R&R players: UberCopper makes me scan as a Regular Villager and is passive, whereas this convert would have to use an action to cover me, leaving a future teammate open. Additionally, any scan just fails and emotional allomancy fails too, which both reveal smoked players. Sure, these other abilities are fun, but I've got to give them up eventually, and UberCopper protects both my role and my alignment. *gives up something else* So why is the first convert someone near their experience level? Most Inquisitors are going to convert someone they're comfortable with and are fairly certain they can work well with as their first convert. It's going to be someone they're familiar with, most likely. That's more likely to be someone who started playing around the same time you did. Hero said that I would've been his first convert. I know Mark told Aman that Aman would've been his first convert. That all matches up pretty well with that first conversion conclusion. In terms of player generations (of which there are 9 total so far), Hero and I are from the same generation (Gen 1). Aman and Mark are separated by a single generation (Aman in Gen 5 and Mark in Gen 6). Using myself as an example, I'm not even sure who I would've converted first. I think I would've considered a newer player, but ultimately, I'm pretty sure I would've gone for someone like Kipper (Gen 4) or Aonar (Gen 1). I think most people, when looking for their first convert to work with, would choose someone they are already familiar with. The second convert is where you're more likely to branch out and go for someone different. Hence why I think the second convert is R&R and thus why I'm suspicious of all of my PM contacts, since any of them would've been perfect second converts. As for suspicions, right now, I actually agree with Lopen about Rand. I didn't when the cycle first began, but....there's something about his last few posts that are really rubbing me the wrong way. It's almost entirely gut, but one of the lines that particularly triggers me is this: Everyone has that kind of scrutiny on them. Conversions are inherently an IKYK. I could've been converted last night simply for the reason that most people wouldn't expect me to be converted because I can prove my role so easily. But there are players (not many in this game) who would've converted me because I had a plan in place to prove my role. You'd think the Inquisitor would go after R&R players, because they want experienced advice, right? But that's a good reason not to go for those players, because people expect it. So if not the R&Rs, they'll convert newer players, which can also be expected. The only group of players we can say with a fair bit of certainty haven't been converted are the ones who are completely and totally inactive, like Meta and Spartacus. Because no Inquisitor is going to convert a complete inactive while that person is inactive, no matter who the inactive is, unless they know that the inactive will return shortly. Which we don't have any reason to expect for either of those. You are literally just as likely to be converted as anyone else, perhaps even more-so, considering how well you apparently did in LG30 (which I don't know; I wasn't really paying attention to that game). I don't even know what about this line gets me, but I know when I first read it, it sent all kind of red flags waving for me. Those red flags went off again on the post about HH, Mage, and Ecth because all of his reads are neutral, with a slight elim lean on HH. His biggest suspects are merely neutral reads right now? Usually by Cycle 4, villagers have people they're suspicious of. Like, actually suspicious of. Elim-leaning. Not neutral. In fact, generally, they suspect more people than can possibly be evil. Case in point my being suspicious of all of my PM contacts. There are 5 of them and I know not all of them could possibly be evil, but I'm suspicious of them even still. Anyway, Rand. I know there are already 3 votes on Rand and we wanted to spread votes out more, which this doesn't exactly help, but honestly, with the rioting/soothing we've already got with the our emotional allomancers as it is, I fail to see how exactly we'll know if, when, and where the Inquisitor intervenes and, more importantly, why. It's just as easy to set someone up to screw with the village as it is to save a teammate. However, I do fully encourage making sure as many people as possible vote. I don't care where they vote, just so long as they do.

I soothed Figberts. I told both Rae and Lopen before rollover, so they can confirm.

Oh, well that last bit is at least something. Passive self, active others. That works.

Yes. They'll be using Dalinar's spike to convert another, but they will be unable to kill. I don't expect this to actually happen, but if it did... Does this include smoking someone else? Does copper automatically start as on? For example, let's say the copper spike took, and the convert is a smoker. If someone tried to use emotional allomancy on the new smoker this cycle, what would happen? Also, for everyone else, this means that if the spike took, the Smoker can both smoke themselves and still make the kill. If the answer to the first question I just asked is yes as I suspect it will be, they'll be able to smoke themselves and another and still make the kill.

That's actually not what I was saying. Team Evil only has access to one kill, unless they get a Coinshot. I was a Coinshot, so I was asking Meta about that, hence the double kill thing. But had the Inquisitor given up something other than UberSteel and attacked with UberSteel, his convert couldn't have attacked with the spike kill as well. It's one or the other. The problem with giving up UberSteel this early is what if the convert had died today? If Dalinar hadn't been a Misting, the Inquisitor would have to rely on the lynch to kill a Misting because he wouldn't have any way to kill. And....hm. Drake. Araris. I'm not doing this because I expect the bandwagon to dissolve, but Drake is really starting to strike me as village, based on some of these questions. I'm not voting for Araris based on my comment that he'd make a good Inquisitor, but more on his comment about the discussion surrounding Drake this entire time, and therefore not giving us any info. Would've been nice to have Araris involved earlier in the cycle so as to help widen discussion past one point, so that vote is more about prodding him into being more active. Which I know is outside of his typical playstyle, but lurking won't help us. So, Araris, it would be really nice if you'd participate more.

Yes. Lurcher blocks one kill attempt, regardless of type.