Kasimir

... >> I'm not reformatting that wall of text again. Sorry. Edit: Newan, is that dot the black spot? Edit 2: In the interests of continuing to be (encouraging? following up on Riingar's) forthcoming(-ness?), I will admit my secondary use-item action was also blocked by the grappling hook. I'd bid for and obtained the loaded dice and was planning on gambling last cycle.

King: Tsk, Spanish Inquisition much? Anyway, I've been trying to do some analysis of the voting shenanigans. Like most, I agree it looks like someone was trying to protect Kal, but: Case 1: [1024 hrs > x > 1200 hrs] Jene (2): Mai, Wyrm KalFS (3): Riingar, Riitiidiikiir, Kai Wyrm (1): Jene Result of grappling hook: Kal gets protected. No lynch. Case 2: [1200 hours] Jene (3): Mai, Wyrm, Hreo KalFS (3): Riingar, Riitiidiikiir, Kai Wyrm (1): Jene Result of grappling hook: Jene gets lynched. Kal is protected. Case 3: [1215 hrs] Jene (3): Mai, Wyrm, Hreo KalFS (3): Riingar, Riitiidiikiir, Kai Wyrm (2): Jene, Jeno Result of grappling hook: Jene gets lynched. Kal is protected. Case 4: [1227 hrs] Jene (3): Mai, Wyrm, Hreo KalFS (3): Riingar, Riitiidiikiir, Kai Wyrm (3): Jene, Jeno, Luka Result of grappling hook: no lynch. Kal is protected. Case 5: [1235 hrs] Jene (2) Mai, Wyrm KalFS (4): Riingar, Riitiidiikiir, Kai, Hreo Wyrm (3): Jene, Jeno, Luka Result of grappling hook: no lynch. Kal is protected. 1241 hrs: cycle closed by Meta. - Assumptions/Inferences: Assumption 1.: I was targeted between 1024hrs and 1241 hours. I think this is about right. It's possible I could've been hit earlier, but before 1024hrs, my vote was on Jeno. Regardless of whether Jeno is a Mutineer, I was the single standing vote on Jeno. He was never in any danger, and so my assumption is that I was targeted by the Grappler (I was going to refer to that Mutineer by the other half of the term, but I think we can see why that is unwise ) within that time window, after I shifted my vote to Kal. Corollaries: 1a. These are the people who were online in the window for the hook to be utilised: Mai, myself, Riitiidiikiir, Hreo, Luka, Jene, Jeno, Jatae 1b. These are the people who might have been online; I am uncertain because the timestamp is unclear (it doesn't matter--they have to be logged in to send an action PM, so) : Jain, Matim, Riingar 1c. These are the people who couldn't have done it: Wyrm, Aonar, Ratel. At this point, I want to note that I'm not going to refer to this as being indicative of guilt or innocence. I am however, looking for suspects for the Grappler (temporarily Mutineer #3 on my charts.) It therefore ignores actions by other Mutineers as sorting that will take time. Assumption 2.: No one who voted for Kal was the Grappler. It's an assumption I'd like to revisit, because I'm not sure it's entirely legitimate, but for now: it seems a waste of a grappling hook, frankly, to vote for Kal and then nullify the effect of your vote. And with all the last minute shenanigans going on, it seems to me that the Grappler would have no way of knowing that a vote wouldn't go on Kal...unless the only other people involved at that point in time were also Mutineers. Corollaries: 2a. Of the contents of the set of suspect/potential Grapplers: Mai, myself, Riitiidiikiir, Hreo, Luka, Jene, Jeno, Jatae. Assumption 3.: While it looks as though the Grappler was trying to save Kal, it looks to me as though there is a second possibility: that the Grappler was trying to get Jene lynched. If we look at Case Two and Three, then between 1200hrs and 1215hrs, the Grappler could have acted to try and get Jene lynched (or have gone for a more general mislynch with Jene the candidate at that time.) (This possibility may overlap with that of trying to protect Kal, but I don't immediately want to make that assumption in order to be conservative of inference.) The problem: the Grappler would've had to go offline after that. If they'd seen that Jene wasn't going to get lynched as Luka had now placed a vote on Wyrm, then it seems to be that the Grappler should've also been able to see Hreo's placing the vote on Kal and to change accordingly (allowing a lynch to go through--the assumption is the Grappler wants a mislynch) in the six minute gap between Hreo and Meta closing the cycle. Corollaries: 3a. Kal is most likely suspicious: the Grappler did not want a lynch on Kal to go through, or: 3b. The Grappler tried to have Jene lynched and then went offline (?) [This scenario would mean that Hreo, Luka, and myself would not be the Grappler.] - This is mostly what I can get out of the scenario at the moment. I haven't yet taken a closer look at the actions/reasons/motivations of everyone else who started swapping their votes or placing their votes last minute. I'll do so in a short while. Here are two possibilities I'm considering: 1. Kal is being set up. It's a possibility worth considering, to be sure, and my response to it is similar to King's: well...yeah, but they could've had a Kal mislynch go through. Extra scrutiny would go on Hreo, for that last minute change, on myself, for not being much better at late voting. Now, it is possible that this happened: the Grappler tried to get Jene lynched and went offline. They had no way of knowing that more votes would stack onto Kal and that they could get someone else lynched. As a result, no new orders were sent in and Kal looks really dodgy. 2. Mai is being set up. This is something I also find worth considering. The strongest link I find between Aonar and Ratel, besides them being experienced players, is that they both, at some point, voted for Mai. It's not impossible that the Mutineers might be trying something like what happened with lev last game, given it worked so well. (Mai could really be a Mutineer, but at this point, I am more inclined to go with the "is set up" rather than "was being saved" because frankly, Aonar's vote was just for information, and Ratel's vote was on a hunch no one else was following. There is a third possibility: this is being done so we'd consider it and then drop Mai on the suspicion list when Mai is actually highly suspicious. I'm currently agnostic to this possibility for now and will further consider it.) Which ties in with something else: in the last minute muddle, Jene expressed suspicions of Wyrm and Mai. So one, there's a connection between Jene's expressing his suspicions of Mai and the ongoing attempt to set Mai up [Assumption, as noted] and the people who threw votes on Wyrm out of left field. So this is the picture of suspicion I end up with, if I work with the assumption Mai is being set up: Jene, Jeno, and Luka. In particular, three of the people involved in dodgy vote activity late on. So as I do want an answer: Jene, why are you suspicious of Wyrm and Mai? I'd like an answer from Jene and Luka as well, without my having to light each of their names in red in turn. 형.아연.

"It's always the people you like, 'Rii," Kai confided. Narii squeaked persistently until he crumbled some hardtack for the little furret. He'd been assigned on the same watch as Ratel before, and he'd kind of missed the fact that Ratel never saw the need to chatter at him. And he'd never seen 'Rii or at least if he had, he'd been kind enough to pretend he hadn't. That was always a selling point for a person, in Kai's eyes. Two friends down, and it seemed that there would be more to come. More work, too. A ship was always a busy place, and with Paan, Aonar and Ratel down, the rest of them would be working harder and harder to make up for it. Will put up some proper analysis in a bit. There's definitely way too many last minute shenanigans with the votes. Edit: We do have one piece of information now. The Almighty GM has gotten back to me; I was the one hit by the grappling hook. While I grant that some (Matim in particular) are rather uncertain of my loyalties, unless Matim would like to own up to having the grappling hook, I'm taking that to indicate that the grappling hook went into Mutineer hands last cycle. GM: Just to be certain--a lynch plus the Mutineer kill could take down a Gunner within a single cycle?

Welcome! Puns and wordplay? Most excellent, most excellent indeed!

Fixed In all fairness, this code business worked so good for the guys in Game 6 that maybe I'd have been better off not trying.

Now we're starting to see something. Very well--Matim, thank you for cooperating. And here's my response: 1. If you've paid attention to QF2, you'll notice that I have a tendency to troll in my posts. (I recall Jain was particularly entertained by my hiding a message "Really, are you that bored?" in a particular post.) 2. If you've paid attention to my previous games, I have also generally tried not to draw attention as an evil player and have therefore desisted from active trolling when I was playing as a Ghostblood and as Padan Fain. 3. In the spirit of honesty and cooperation, I will admit there is a message hidden in my posts at the moment. There is one player in this game who I've shared considerable background and teamwork with. I have been assessing this player and am not certain if that player is a loyalist as well. Rengar should be familiar with this situation. Edited to add: However, I would question your logic. If I'm putting random gibberish at the end 'to confuse people' rather than to carry messages, then how does that come out as being suspicious? Having gotten a response from Jeno, and looking at the votes thus far: we have, at the moment, a tie and not much of a buffer in the case of any swing. At the moment, some of my suspicions are not particularly helpful. I could vote and hope they get on in time to get some information out of it, but at this point in time, with the cycle so close to ending, I think it's not as useful gesture. So that being said, I'm therefore going to vote for KalFS. Here are my reasons: 1. Arguing that Aonar got killed because he was trying to do something constructive, or because he was in general an experienced player, still leaves open a question or two. In particular, we have to ask why it was Aonar, when there are other experienced players such as Joe and Maili around. My current hypothesis is that it is because Aonar's recent track record indicates that when given the opportunity to correct for error and mislynches, his analysis ends up tracking the truth rather successfully, whereas many other people who number among the experienced players do not have such a recent record. 2. As mentioned earlier, there are several people in the position to know about Aonar's track record. As I've listed (and now properly compared to the player list and timestamps, so this is complete as compared to the last version, sorry) : these technically include Jatae, myself, Wyrm, Riingar, Mai, Joe, Matim, Ratel, Jain and KalFS. Now, that's not very helpful at the moment, because that's too many of the people involved in this game. Of these, a few stand out to me. Mai, at least, has previously lynched players based on threat assessment. In other words, he is one player now in a position to be aware of Aonar's recent track record and who has lynched players based on threat. So while I wouldn't consider this 'evidence for' Mai's being a Mutineer, I would say that Aonar's death is perfectly consistent with that. In addition, we have a second, tentative connection between Aonar and Mai, where Aonar previously voted and retracted. So that's one question mark there. Another possibility would be KalFS, given that he grounded his suspicions of Aonar on aggressive play, which, as pointed out by several, including Aonar himself, was what was needed within the more speedy format of a QF game. Now, I recognise that we sometimes pick a thin reason to place a lynch vote, because we can get information from how the person responds to us. All and very well. My problem is that if KalFS was voting informationally, then his vote was not responsive to Aonar's defense of his actions, which is usually how informational voting works. So my conclusion is that it was not informational voting (he had ample time to change his vote). In addition, I feel like the playstyle reason doesn't really say very much on its own. Which is somewhat shaky grounding for suspicions. 3. To tie or not to tie. To some extent, it does come down to this. I do have other suspicions, and in following them, I would give us a tie. At this point in time, I honestly do not think we can afford another one. And as Riingar has pointed out, a tie leaves us entirely at the mercy of whoever who controls the grappling hook. And if there's going to be a gamble, I'd rather not it be that the person with the hook is on our side.Dovie'andi se tovya sagain.

I find it interesting that I've suddenly been construed to be arguing for a bandwagon. I am arguing for 1. active engagement, with the mutual understanding that all of us have little to go on at this point in time (at least, nothing that would stand up in court ) and 2. giving a decent lynch margin. More recently, I've been arguing for 1. so I fail to see where concerns about a bandwagon come in. (Edit: And yes, I've mentioned being concerned that having the ability to block vote swings and a Captain lynch might put us in danger of a bandwagon. But 1. and 2. are separate issues as far as I've been arguing them.) (I'm understandably a little concerned when players start misconstruing what another player is actually saying, because putting words in someone else's mouth could be simple carelessness or have slightly more malicious intent.) In any case, at this point, I'm just doing up a vote tally: Jatae (1): Hreo Ratel (1): Jain Jene (2): Mai, Wyrm Jeno (1): Kai Riitiidiikiir (1): Matim Wyrm (1): Jene Mai (1): Ratel KalFS (2): Riingar, Riitiidiikiir Luka (1): Jatae Kai (1): Matim I will admit that there is something else that would mean, within the context of this game, that would draw a connection between Riingar, Maili, Dellan, Jatae, Wyrm (Edit: Joe too) or myself and Aonar. Unfortunately, that is very unhelpfully broad, and I don't think it's something that can--at this point in time--be safely mentioned as Game 6 is still ongoing at the moment. So I'll hold my peace on that for now. Jatae: How does having less coins offer significant advantage? Alv: Yes. There's that too. Edit: I've just read Joe's post. Will edit/comment in a short while.

Hreo: I agree that the grappling hook is best used to block the Mutineers. At the same time, what are the odds? The Mutineer kill passes around in a cycle. Without looking at what information we have here alone, the odds of a loyal crew member both obtaining the grappling hook (whatever that probability is; that's far too many assumptions for me to bother trying each case) and using it to hit a Mutineer is: Base probability of obtaining grappling hook x 1/14 (occurrence of the killer) x 3/15 (or 4/15--base occurrence rate of a Mutineer.) Frankly? That's really bad odds. Gambling on that is as impressive as--wait for it--gambling for a single coin. Here's where we disagree. We get information by voting for random people but not just by randomly sticking votes. If all of our reasons for voting people is "Well, I need the coins", we get some information from their reactions, but we don't get information about motivations because everyone's motivation and reason boils down to finding someone so they can get their coins. This is why I feel I'd rather listen out for something informative: including things people believe at this point are indicative of guilt, even--yes, Jene's reason. Here's the way I'm going to put it: to me, voting "because of the coins" is equivalent to voting like Jain does (no offense, Jain.) He's been a wildcard in previous games, and trying to figure what exactly he's doing is a nightmare. Sure, if we all behave like Jain, we could get something from how people respond to his actions. But at the same time, we deny people the second half of the information: looking at how people reason in placing lynch votes. In the case of Jain, it's meant that people have struggled trying to figure out what to make of him in a game. Yes, that last reason is a common reason. It's not like I haven't been there, and in the past games, I've had legit reason to not want to be there, having been on Team Evil. It's a common and understandable reason, psychologically. In terms of game strategy? I'm not convinced it's a good one. 行く川のながれは絶えずして、しかも本の水にあらず。

Could I ask why it's supposed to be reassuring that everyone is not voting based on whatever little suspicion we have now (supported by not very much evidence) but rather, for the coin? I want to ask every single person who has indicated they are placing votes for the coin: If you are a loyal crewmember, how does that help our team? How do you plan for that action to be something that helps our team locate and get rid of the Mutineers within the five days Aonar has indicated we have? (Four now. I'm assuming he assumed not just Mutineer kills but mislynches on our side.) Don't just do it for the coin. As Riingar has indicated, doing that gets us nowhere. And: 1. the Mutineers can pass off all lynch attempts as attempts to get the coin, 2. while a mislynch would always benefit them, the Mutineers might not be that fussed about getting us to mislynch. If it takes too long for us to get on our feet, passive play on their part and ours can only benefit them as they have that kill. Now, we probably do want one or two people on our team capable of winning a bid for the axe, in the event of the Quartermaster's death. So yes, do save for the coin. Get the loaded dice and help us get at that twelve coin minimum. At the same time, the problem is trying to figure out who among all the people looking for coins is on our team. Here's the problem: that'd be a perfectly legit Mutineer strategy. The grappling hook would be of great use to them, as would saving for the axe. They would also find a buckler useful if one of their own appears to be coming under fire. Given that, the statement, "I just want the coin" isn't immediately reassuring or indicatory of loyalty. If you're worried about the lack of evidence, don't be. It's Cycle Two. Everyone (except the Mutineers, but even they only get one PM) is working with a distinct lack of information here. I'd agree the reasons I have at the moment to back my suspicions are neither ironclad, nor would they be admissible in court. Fortunately we're on a ship. But we need to start working and pushing with more than "I want the coins." For what it's worth on the Wyrm issue: I'm not immediately sure the Mutineers would be sending insanely long PMs to each other, to be perfectly honest. I think it's a balance they'd have to strike: if they're offering immediate suspicions "Perhaps X is a Gunner or the QM" to their comrade, and advice on who they'd suggest to kill, then making PMs too long (i.e. spending a lot of time on that) would risk missing the window when the killer is online and able to act on that. Some of us are really active and spend a lot of time on the forums. But some of us aren't, and there's the problem of timezones to factor in too. So I'm not particularly convinced it's an indicator of guilt. Is it better than guessing? Perhaps. Anything we're doing right now is quite frankly a guess, built on assumptions about how we think a Mutineer would play. Only time and more information will tell if any of these assumptions are justified or must be done away with. I'm hesitant to say Wyrm can definitely be trusted because the last time, that worked so good for me (hint: it didn't ) but I'd say that I think Wyrm's defense is sufficient for me at this point in time. Not that I won't be watching carefully anyway. After all, Wyrm is a compulsive liar δὶς ἐς τὸν αὐτὸν ποταμὸν οὐκ ἂν ἐμβαίης.

D'oh. Good catch, thank you. Sorry for the confusion guys: I managed to confuse myself with the rules. Please ignore everything I said about three grappling hooks. We only need to worry ourselves with one grappling hook today, so a margin of two votes should be just about fine to avoid a tie or a nasty surprise. I'm just going to go bury my face in shame now. Edit: I have to get some sleep right about now, so I'll be heading off. As things are somewhat slow at the moment, I'm going to throw some thoughts out and a vote. I'll be back in the morning to fix things and change my vote as necessary based on new information--running on 3 hours of sleep is no joke Given that the Mutineers only get one PM to the killer, it seems to me that the rest of the team would be thinking rather carefully about what they want to say in those PMs. Now, that means for the first part of the cycle, the killer was likely on their own. They might or might not have already singled out a potential target; nonetheless, I tentatively suggest: [ASSUMPTION] 1. The killer probably won't vote for whoever they're going to ghost. (On the off-chance they can get a bandwagon going--I acknowledge that my reasoning that we ought to have a 4-vote margin to avoid lynch on the Captain from going through would probably help them somewhat in this regard--they wouldn't want to double up.) From this, we can suspect three other possibilities: 1a. The killer either withheld their vote until they had decided, possibly with input from their teammates, or 1b. The killer first placed a vote on Aonar and then withdrew it as the decision to kill Aonar was made, 1c. The killer did not place a vote on Aonar at all, as they knew he was a likely target, and therefore went for someone else. 1a. points us towards the people who started placing votes late in the cycle, probably by the time one or two teammates could get word in. 1b. points us very specifically to Jeno. 1c. doesn't particularly help us, as it points us at pretty much anyone who isn't Jeno, Aonar, or Kal. (In addition, as Riingar has pointed out, this could be another lev incident again: killing Aonar, knowing it would cast suspicion on the people who seemed to have put votes on him, which would indicate that we're going in the entirely wrong direction here.) In addition, A1. is an assumption, as denoted. If we scrap the assumption, reasoning that the killer made the kill when it looked increasingly unlikely that Aonar was going to be voted out by the tribe, then we'd need to take a closer look at Kal. But Kal's name has already been burned in red, courtesy of King. Here's the problem: at least at this point, I'm not entirely certain which possibilities can be safely eliminated. AlI the same, I do think it is fruitful to take a closer look at the people who placed votes on Aonar, as a way of being able to rule out a possibility or two. So I'd like to ask Jeno what he makes of things so far.

Trust no one.

They buried Aonar at sea, a week after Paan. Kai mended rips in cloth, cursing as he stuck himself with the needle a couple of times. His heart wasn't in it. He'd kind of liked Aonar; for all the scholar had been as awkward as a fish out of water on board the AonTeo, he'd been their fish. Last week, as they spoke in between tasks, trying to figure out who Paan's compatriots could've been, he'd been reassured that they were, at least, both on the same side, something that he couldn't quite say for everyone else on the ship. Aonar'd seemed like he'd gotten a good handle on what was going on. Kai's head was still spinning. It wasn't his first berth, but it was the first time he'd been caught in the middle of an impending mutiny and he didn't like that at all. "What should I do, 'Rii?" he asked, setting aside both sailcloth and needle. The ferret squeaked, pouncing on the partly stitched-up rip in the sailcloth. "I know," Kai said, ruefully. Narii was right; not much, at least, until he'd finished with the sailcloth. But until then, he would watch, and keep his ears open. And think: very, very hard. Storm it, they got Aonar :/ Oh, well. Clock's ticking, gentlemen (and gentlewomen). Let's get down to this. Agenda: 1. Information 2. Strategy for this Cycle With regard to 1.: this will be just be off the top of my head. I haven't really had (and won't really have) the time to sit down and analyse things properly until I'm done with some emails. So I will reserve the right to decide, later, that I've been pretty silly with some of these thoughts My initial impulse is to read Aonar's death as someone taking down an experienced player who was arguing for active discussion, rather than because of who Aonar was voting for. (He voted for Mai, but later retracted that vote; he didn't really suspect Mai either, just wanted to fish for information. He did vote for Ratel, but it was rather late into the cycle, which makes me doubt he was killed because he'd gotten lucky.) Now, while I'm still thinking about what to make of what happened with Jene, I'll say this on my part, as one of the three people who placed a vote for Jene: as I believe I mentioned earlier (perhaps not so clearly), I voted for Jene because I felt it was being disingenuous to suggest, right after Riitiidiikiir had defended himself, that he was our best bet at that point. I had hoped that lighting his name in red would enable Jene to be more forthcoming about his reasons for believing that despite the general paucity of evidence for suspicions across the board (as he had said), there was something in particular that highlighted Riitiidiikiir to his attention as "our best bet". As he has, in fact, kindly provided them a cycle later, I am not (at least not immediately) inclined to press the matter. I'm just as concerned about 2., however. If I'm reading Meta's write-up correctly, it seems barely anyone chose to gamble last cycle. Which means that we were either saving our coins or, (far more likely), bidding for items. In particular, while the items could not have been used or come into play last cycle, this is not true this time around. There is a maximum of three grappling hooks in stock, which can be mobilised. While planning for the worst would have us wargaming on the assumption the Mutineers possess all three grappling hooks, I do not think this is likely the case. Here is why: 1. They might want to save up for the minimum bid for the axe. (Read: invest in loaded dice.) This enables them to make more than one kill. However, this also assumes that they believe they have a decent chance of killing the QM. Given they have to kill about 8 (11:4) or 10 (12:3) of us, and that there's just one QM in the game, I'd say it looks like they have decent chances of hitting the QM somewhere in there. (But maths is not my strong suit, and this is assuming some idealisations.) 2. As in 1.; how organised they are is an open question. Like as not, they have different opinions about how they want to strategise and play this game. In which case, I don't think we should expect a concerted effort to use grappling hooks, much less a concerted attempt to slip in a Captain lynch early. (Nonetheless, given the dire consequences, we should probably plan to block such an opportunity from arising.) In addition, this means that unless they're very sure they all have grappling hooks, can pull a late shock on us--trying to rush a lynch on the Captain at the last minute is going to be highly risky for them. Therefore, my recommendation: As mentioned last cycle, a 4 vote minimum for a lynch would probably give us a decent amount of certainty, excluding grappling hook action, that a Captain lynch won't slip past us. However, with regard to eliminating nasty surprises, I think a further margin of 2 (3, if one wants to be safe) between our lynch and where the other votes are going is probably something best factored in, just in case. But here's the problem: this ends up with us choosing/creating bandwagons on purpose. That throws some sand over our ability to figure out who's just hopping onto bandwagons and who is doing so to make sure there's no swing (which would allow a different lynch or a Captain lynch to come through.) So at the moment, I'm a bit divided about whether that would be a good idea :/ Edit: Fixed one typo 'not inclined to press the matter'. D'oh. This is what happens when you type on three hours of sleep... booj oog oog, booj oog oog, surlaW eht ma I, namggE eht ma I!

Yeah, Joe, Aonar's right--basically, it's possible to fakeclaim being the Pathian but not picking out the Conman would be a giveaway for Team Evil, and a real claim would have the Agent assassinated by the Sharpshooter almost immediately. (The Crew could, naturally, try for the normal outnumbering win condition, as it's either-or: they can aim to outnumber the Town, or they can aim to take down the Agent, or they can be overachievers and attempt both at the same time ) Aonar: With great power knowledge comes great responsibility Technically, that's why the Pathian's been built in. I've just thrown in the Conman to force the Pathian to be very cautious about who he trusts. (In that respect, IDK--this game may be more suited for a full one rather than a Quick Fix, after all :S)

And the Supreme Lynchmaster is back in action! Alright, sorry for doubting you. Anyway, I have to head off for a meeting now, so I'd just toss in: Jatae: At the time I had posted, the state of the votes included a 2-2-2 tie. What I meant was to say that I felt the state of the votes at that point was adequate to make a Captain lynch unlikely (though not impossible). This changed when the votes shifted later and I updated my tally to reflect that. I was not suggesting we should specifically and especially aim for a 2-2-2 tie. Hreo: Agreed. I admit that 3-3 would be safer than 2-2. I honestly just suggested 2-2 on the assumption that mobilising 3 Mutineers with only one PM each was going to be tricky (and that us mobilising to ensure the votes stay 3-3 or to band for a 4 margin was also going to be as problematic), but you're right to say that 3-3 or a 4 vote margin would be a safer threshold. (Although I'm not sure this would be the case from tomorrow onwards as I suspect a Mutineer strategy would be to get hold of those grappling hooks.)

GM Almighty: Could I request for an order of actions please? Specifically, I'd like to know if someone who is killed still has their vote count for the cycle. (I apologise if this is something I've missed out on when scanning the thread.) Supreme Lynchmaster: Fair enough. Riikiitiikiitavii. More thoughts regarding strategy from me: tying/making sure a lynch goes through will start to become a tricky proposition with the grappling hooks in play. One thing I tentatively suggest we could do, depending on how the order of actions works out, is to have all people who successfully got a grappling hook declare it if they're on our side. They can only use it for that cycle anyway, so a kill wouldn't stop their action. (My current suspicion, barring word from Meta the Almighty GM, is that grappling hooks go first and kills go utterly last.) Therefore: 1. They won't be making big targets of themselves. Killing them won't deny us the use of the grappling hook as they only possess it for the next cycle as long as the Quartermaster lives. (GM: just to confirm--someone can't hang on to the grappling hook and decide not to employ it in the next cycle? It'd be immediately returned to the QM if he's still alive?) 2. I'd rather know where the grappling hooks are. It gives us some measure of accountability (in other words, we know who has it and therefore who the set of people who have made vote nullifications includes), which allows us to make sense of what's happening with the votes. However: there's not much we can do to track and confirm that people with the hook do actually have it, or to otherwise prove that someone came into possession of a hook. On that side, we can't do anything to ensure Mutineer compliance. It'd be more a hopeful request to be able to add some accountability and information to our picture. Last: I'm shifting my vote to Jene. If there isn't much evidence against Riitiidiikiir (and yes, that is the correct spelling, so you might want to adjust your post ) or anyone else, then I'd like to know what specifically makes you pick him out. While I'm going to wait and see if the Supreme Lynchmaster gets back into action in a bit, he's given a satisfactory explanation for the worries levelled against him at this point. What grounds your vote on him?

Kai muttered to himself and to 'Rii as he tried to scratch out the tallies on the splintered piece of wood with his dirk. He'd listened to the accusations being thrown to and fro and wondered briefly if the Captain'd see fit to follow up on any of them. He shivered. Best to avoid the hempen halter. What'd happen to 'Rii then? I've tracked the votes up to this point in time, but I'm not 100% certain I can get on in time to make any late edits, so this won't be a running tally. Jene (1): Mai Mai (1): Aonar Aonar (1): Jeno, KalFS KalFS (1): Jain Jain (2): Ratel, Tie-Dye (sorry, Newan, let me know if you'd prefer something else.) Jeno (2): Wyrm, Riingar Tie-Dye (1): Kai And, as my tally has indicated, I'm going to place a vote for Riitiidbdgdbdkud. At this point in time, I'm more interested by the fact that Riitii seems to be playing more passively at the moment, in a game where we need as much discussion as possible going through. The Quick Fix is more fast-paced and in this particular case, we're supposed to get our information from lynch discussion, and chiefly that, barring a lucky hit with the grappling hook. (Which, incidentally, means that votes may also be nullified, so that's something we have to take into consideration in lynches.) Given that, that he seems to be a bit more passive here than he was in Game 6 is currently something I find interesting. In addition, I'd like to know why he's put a vote on Jain. As things stand, I think a current 2-2-2 tie is a decent margin to prevent a Captain lynch from slipping through. The question now remains if there will or won't be a first day lynch. As the grappling hook won't be useable until next cycle, I believe we'll only have to worry about the possibility of a vote nullification tomorrow. Edit: Actually, I was long ninjaed by Wyrm as I was trying to figure out who I wanted to place my vote on. However, in true familial stubbornness, I decided to stick with this post anyway.

I love this idea. Goodness knows, it's only happened to me once but it's sufficiently traumatising. Although I have to admit, I've only once been in the situation where I accidentally upvoted someone and didn't want to go around asking for a downvote to correct it

A tiny tail poked out of his vest pocket, and Kai sighed. "'Rii," he muttered, "Get back in there." All the same, he fumbled in another pocket for the bit of hardtack he'd begged off Cook and crumbled it, dropping the crumbs into the first pocket. Narii dook-ed at him, poking her head out of his pocket. "C'mon now," Kai said. "If they see you, we're both going to be in for it." The Captain ran a tight ship, and Kai was pretty sure that ferrets didn't count as something a seaman was allowed to take with him on the AonTeo. Narii cocked her head. "Be that way," Kai said, dusting off his hands. He watched the other crewmen carefully. They'd buried Paan, for sure, but mutiny didn't happen to just one disgruntled sailor. The Captain'd been silent, but Kai was pretty sure he was still watching. Already, the other sailors were starting to murmur and cast distrustful glances at each other. At this point in time, I want to make a suggestion with regard to strategy. Whether we lynch a person or go for a no-lynch, I suggest we make the threshold/margin as high as possible. So if we lynch a person, we should ideally have about three or four votes for them. If we go for a no-lynch, we should try to tie the votes off at about 2-2 each. 3-3 would be even better but unlikely. Here are my reasons: Assume, for the moment, that there are 3 or 4 Mutineers among us. They technically win this game as long as we don't stop them from getting a lynch in on the Captain. While Meta has clarified that this will normally happen when we are outnumbered by the Mutineers, I don't particularly want another Bela incident to happen. With that in mind, I suggest we either lynch someone, or if we choose to force a no lynch, force one with a sufficiently high threshold (i.e. a no lynch with votes tied off at 2-2 each, for example) such as to block a last minute attempt by one or two Mutineers to take advantage of us doing nothing and lynch the Captain successfully. I agree it's hard for them to mobilise and organise, which is why by making thresholds sufficiently high, we block attempts to sneak in and get the lynch on the Captain moving at the last minute. While one or two Mutineers might be able to work together, I think it's less likely (although I wouldn't entirely discount the possibility) that they could mobilise as a complete bloc. Also, GM Almighty: If a Gunner gets hit by a grappling hook, does that take away our extra life? And can grappling hooks block votes?

I'd say it could really be either, but I'd prefer colossi, purely on the basis of the Latin etymology of the word. But then again, it probably wouldn't be wrong to use either.

Like the recent trend in the QFs, I've been trying to put together a QF-type game which is based more heavily on deduction and the efforts of regular players rather than role abilities. That being said, it does use the Avalon mechanics again (I love that game, can you tell?) and the Renegade/Lawkeeper roles will (under the optional/special rules) have a bit of a chance-based twist built in, though strictly confined by rules. Specifically, this game will not be kind to the town if the regular town players are inactive. Activity (lying, claiming, mass hysteria,--oh sorry, wrong quote) is highly encouraged and necessary for both teams to win. Feedback would be appreciated Unalloyed Trouble: Scadrial Elimination The Northern Roughs are a dangerous place to live in, far from the civilised city-centre of Elendel. In the Roughs, the town of Cade’s Respite is about as far as you can get from Elendel; further than even Callingfale. Recently, the town has been plagued with a series of messy killings. A bloodied sliver of metal has been discovered near the scene of one of the murders, puzzling the town’s inhabitants. This is the first rule of the Roughs: the more alone you are, the more you need someone you can rely upon…

Incidentally, I've wondered if academic dynamics could be a part of it, to put it bluntly. Within the constraints of a modern society, there's always this big scramble for research funding (especially in science and engineering) but also in the humanities (*cough* drying tap *cough*). If it's part of a funding scramble, we could really be seeing fierce competition between magic and science because they open up different research projects/have different approaches. (And we all know how possessive people can get about the 'right' way to do things...) In addition, interdisciplinary work tends to get looked down on a lot. So there might be not much incentive to reach across discipline boundaries. On the other side of the coin, it's the big thing these days. So it's not really a point in favour of or against less magic-science separation.

Agreed. Waiting a bit more to give a few more people the chance to sign up is fine with me.

I did like Rings of Akaten a lot, but naming a favourite episode/storyline is harder. Unfortunately, I'm not much of a fan of most Moffat episodes, though. (That might make picking a favourite New!Who episode out easier...)

What am I, chopped liver?

!!! The ones for SA work out decently enough, I feel. Artemis Fowl or some of Gaiman's children books? Got it. Danke for the tip I've read those in English, so looking out for the German versions and reading them shall be plenty interesting