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Kasimir

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  1. Kasimir
    Sadly, although Tenth of the Dusk is indeed a trapper, he was not endowed with that role
  2. Kasimir
    [Reserved for Rule Clarifications]
  3. Kasimir
    It's interesting we spent the past cycle focusing on Odium candidates, and it's something that definitely escalated my suspicion of those driving the Odium hunt. Losing Devotion hurt, but it's almost as if we're happily turning this game into Everyone versus Odium, and it isn't. Let's look at the bigger picture again: Batman Hoid can't kill. Team Hoid does not have a Faction kill. Since we're several Shards down at the moment, Team Hoid only has two options: get Cultivation to not be Shattered and to un-Shatter everyone and catch 'em all, or outnumber every other Faction combined. Let me spell this out again, carefully. 1. If Team Hoid is focusing on collecting all the Shards, they don't need to worry about the kills. Kills will be handy, but all they need to do is to outlast the lynches and get Shards lynched, to force Shards to circulate, hopefully passing to a member of Team Hoid. (This makes me suspicious of the information Alv is apparently privy to, even if the rest of us aren't.) Since some Shards are shattered, Team Hoid will likely be angling to: A. protect Cultivation, and/or B. take control of Cultivation, in order to un-Shatter the Shards and re-acquire them. Their official win con is to acquire all the ten Shards - I'm not sure what this means for Shshsh [=the secret spoilery Shard] But let's set that issue aside for the time being. This goal would mean that Team Hoid currently needs to remove Odium, in order to collect their Shard. We don't necessarily need to. There are obvious variations: Team Hoid could be angling for positions of trust, as is common with conversion Factions. But what this means that if Cultivation is Shattered, Team Hoid is automatically forced to take on the tougher victory condition - see: 2. 2. If Team Hoid is working towards their alternate win condition, they've got a tough slog ahead. Once there is no means of patching together the Shards, they're going to have to outnumber every other Faction combined. This includes Odium, Survival, and Autonomy, and generates an obvious and strong clash with Autonomy since: A. Autonomy cannot convert Hoid, and B. Autonomy's win condition is to convert every living player, which by definition implies that Autonomy is going to be a big Faction to swamp, and Team Hoid doesn't even have a kill. This, I think, would put Team Hoid closer to a standard Eliminator team, since they have to kill to whittle down our numbers, and otherwise, force mislynches and so on. This means their first priority would be to acquire a kill ability, whether in the form of Ruin, a conversion-alliance with Team Odium, or Voidbringers being refuelled by Endowment. Without a kill ability, their only hope would be: A. to force us to mis-kill, B. hope Odium causes mass carnage, C. force mislynches, whether through vote manipulation or otherwise. I don't quite know which track Team Hoid will go for, and it's definitely a possibility Team Hoid will try to set themselves up for both cases, which means that acquiring Ruin will be top on their list. (Let's hope Ruin or Honor are not already in their hands, anyway, since Team Hoid can convert Shards.) Why I think this matters: we don't want to miss the forest for the trees. We want to make sense of what we should be looking out for in daily lynch/discussion/analysis, and it's not immediately obvious from their win con that Team Hoid will be playing straightforwardly like a standard Eliminator team, meaning our analysis should reflect/make sense of that. Similarly, we don't want to be focusing on Odium so much that we forget about Team Hoid and allow them to take advantage of that - it will be costly. Finally: since I likely* have no more charges left, meaning I am pretty much useless at this point - I scanned Araris. Unless I've made a horrid mistake somewhere, he's not Odium.
  4. Kasimir
    Wrong. You look for evidence, but people have already informed you why your evidence is either not as strong as you think it is, or simply not evidence at all. It does not confer support onto the propositions you think it does. Now you're trying to pretend I'm claiming you're not helpful if you're evil. Nice work trying to twist people's words. You want me to be blunt? If you're lynch-happy, if you fail to consider countervailing evidence, if you're doing pretty bloody badly at this reasoning business, I'm happy to see you lynched. Not as happy as I would be to see Team Hoid or Odium down, but you know what? If I end up lynching someone who is either evil or doing a horrid job at being a Villager, that's a better trade than lynching an actual, helpful Villager. If that's the case, then I accept that older players have proposed RNG - Alv, STINK or Lopen, but then you fall prey to my second claim: you are making a sweeping generalisation. I left before RNG became the acceptable meta-strategy - my Eliminator teams have always proposed non-random, threat-kills. So you're essentially saying that despite not having played later games, I must play the exact same way as older players who have been around to adapt to this changing strategy. Huh. This makes so much sense.
  5. Kasimir
    You're still making the exact same assumption I already called out in the thread. Araris doesn't need to post. He doesn't need to say anything in world PMs. The only thing he needs to do is to be able to send in orders. As long as you send in an order once every two Cycles, you keep your Shard. That doesn't require an insane amount of activity, and that makes lurking a viable strategy for a Shard. We in the thread will not be able to tell a difference between an inactive and a lurker. It's obvious you're looking for an excuse to lynch people. I've replied by pointing out old players existed in a time where the meta was to lynch the most threatening players, including active ones and ones with insane reputations. Not by RNG. RNG kills are suboptimal. You have chosen to ignore this and simply repeat your claim that only older players would use the RNG. (Hell, that's such a generalisation it's pointless.) Well, so be it. I'm not going to bother to remove my vote from a player who can't be bothered to A. engage with dissenting opinions, B. actually attempt to make sense of the evidence rather than just being lynch-happy. If you're not 17S or Odium, you're not going to be helpful anyway. So be it.
  6. Kasimir
    @Seonid: Just as a clarification - if Shards are Shattered, can Autonomy convert a person holding a Shattered Shard? Second, if Autonomy is Shattered, can the person holding the Shard then be converted? The message came, whispers down the chain of those who had been at Silverlight. Two Shards had been Shattered; their vessels slain by the Lord of Hate. Tenth shook his head as he waited for the fish to bite. The sunlight gleamed off the lapping waters, and Kaikoa chirped, head cocked expectantly. He fed the Aviar some scraps of fish. The bird ate. His thoughts churned, like driftwood. Why all this? He could not put words to this unease. Why now? It was obvious Odium was once again on the loose. Then there was word of the Returned who had been an agent of Autonomy... He thought again of Khriss, back in Silverlight. A man and a task. So simple, when she had said it. It was never that simple. Not even on worlds other than his own. There was the Wanderer, and Odium, and Autonomy--all of them converging. Into what? Tenth did not know. He looked at the calm sea, but there was nothing beneath. Sometimes, one of those shadows beneath would surface--devouring an entire boat. No one knew what those were. He hoped never to know, but could not help wondering if those shadows--those leviathans--ever fought. And if they did: who on the ocean was safe? There was nothing today, however. Still, he glanced at Kaikoa, for reassurance. Eventually, he put up his nets and continued on, paddling his outrigger canoe, the slap of wood against water his companion.
  7. Kasimir
    Very logical, especially since Devotion doesn't need to be in any of the PMs and I literally got the Devotion PM after the rollover - and it was auto-shut since Devotion was shattered. Interesting.
  8. Kasimir
    Rule Clarifications: 1. Where does killing the Heart come on the Order of Actions? Killing the Heart comes dead last - it's the lowest priority action possible.
  9. Kasimir
    Still on First of the Sun, with Assassin World of Death is dead. I'll be frank and say I have no bloody idea. Dude, this community has changed so storming much since I left and come back, what with people having fights about playstyle and the absolutely absurd level of inactivity compared to where it was in my time (*shakes cane*) Interesting that you don't class Alv or Sart (he started in LG4!) or Aonar or Araris as older players. Do you not think they've been around as well, Elenion? Or were you just looking for easy targets? Not really sure what to say about the claim the Odium kill pattern fits the playstyle of an older player since I can't really be bothered to look up all the most recent games to see how they've been killing. (And I'll be frank: back when I was playing, respect kills were a thing. You'd expect people with heavy-hitter reps to drop dead first, so this is an extremely different meta I don't know nuts about.) Not to mention that the most recent games show Eliminator behaviour and I think it's kind of ridiculous to assume the same pattern applies to Odium behaviour since they're different win conditions. The most I can say is that I already repeatedly expressed confusion over the Jondesu kill and conquestor. At least to me, they would not have been intuitive targets - my first attempt would be to guess who Joe trusted (this might have been why Odium hit Jondesu) and failing that, to hit Elodin on the off-chance Joe hadn't passed the Shard on separately. conquestor would not have been an intuitive choice at all, and I'd be hopping worlds to gather more information since every cycle I fail to Shatter a Shard is a wasted one. (Inb4 people now complain I'm strategising for Odium... ) [I believe Stick would fit that part of the profile, at least.] Good to know that we can at least clear Magestar of being Odium, assuming he was truthful about being roleblocked I was the receipient of a closed Devotion PM as well - between Sheep and myself. Not sure what this says, but I thought I'd just add to the info circulating around. @Dalinar Kholin, the rules explicitly state that 17th Shard cannot convert Odium, Autonomy, or Survival (or, I suppose, the Agent of Autonomy - but this is an inference.) Autonomy cannot convert other Shards or Hoid. If we kill Odium, the Shard passes - but not the win condition. This is also stated in the rules. Same goes for Autonomy and Survival. This means that technically, Autonomy and Survival are all right with passing their Shards if they can see a way to fulfil their win con by doing so. Odium is less likely to, since their Shardic ability is required to fulfil their win con. Cultivation, you may need to pass your Shard to someone you trust soon. If Joe was an Agent of Autonomy, he has likely already leaked your identity to Autonomy. Autonomy can't convert you, but this may just mean that Autonomy is happy to get you Shattered or lynched, since their win con is to have all living players converted. Also, before I forget: #sticksoutforharambe
  10. Kasimir
    LG12, 11 on Maili in one cycle, and that wasn't even because a Seeker found he was evil - just a plain ol' bandwagon. Had I gotten on in time to change my vote, we would have tied with that one. Not sure if it's the record though because Winter got hit with a glorious 17 votes during that cycle, though it was because a Seeker found she was on Team Evil, plus were were badly trying to protect a second, vulnerable Seeker. At least for this cycle, I will vote Joe lives. This may change in the next cycle. Also, guys - calling for a kill on harambe is one thing. Can we please make sure Endowment doesn't Return him too? >> Otherwise, this lynch is really a blasted mockery...
  11. Kasimir
    You said there are only 2 Devotion PMs going around right now. I took that to mean you were in both of them. I guess not. Edit: I'm not sure I agree with the analysis about Shards not staying in the inactive either. Remember - if a player does not send in an order pertaining to their Shard within two cycles, the Shard passes to another player. From our [=player] perspective, anyone who doesn't post in the thread or say stuff in the World PMs is inactive. From the GM's perspective, someone may very well be silent in World PMs and in the thread and still be active enough to keep their Shard, because they're sending in low-key orders, e.g. to invest. Considering Odium hasn't been hitting inactives or lurkers, I'd be willing to say such a strategy works out better for them. I'm also not agreeing with the conflation of Autonomy and Survival and Odium with Team Evil. Sure, if by 'Evil', you mean 'Not-Village', but that's an extremely crude and unhelpful way to draw the distinction - Seonid has already said all three other Factions can win with Team Shard or Team Hoid. They're indifferent to us. We would prefer to encourage them to fulfil their win cons in a way that helps us. So far, Odium has not been exceptionally harmful (one 17S convert (?) down, and losing Preservation which could be painful but also could be worse.), if indiscriminate with their killing. But setting them [=all three] up as Team Evil from the start will do us no favours - we don't need to encourage them to play in a way that directly and deliberately harms us, much less to ally with Team Hoid.
  12. Kasimir
    Are you sure the Shard isn't Obliteration?
  13. Kasimir
    I don't understand these two quotes. Odium can win with 17S or with the Village. Odium has absolutely no reason to kill someone for generating discussion - or for not generating discussion. Odium is literally indifferent to anything that doesn't point to someone having a Shard. You're ascribing Eliminator motivations to someone who doesn't have to play that way, and it doesn't make sense; even worse, it may be an unwarranted assumption. Ditto for the second quote. You're assuming Odium knows alignments or cares about alignments. Odium has no reason to, and if Harambe is Autonomy, then Odium has all the more no reason allow Harambe to be left alive. Doing so simply allows the Shard to pass to an investee, which means Odium has to go through the work of hunting down Autonomy yet again to shatter it. Sart does raise a good point about Harambe possibly being a Fool-kind of Shard. @Straw, do you think you could clarify if your Shard carried a different win con with it? Otherwise, I think we should just lynch Harambe and be done with it (and I will shift my vote once we get a little closer to the close.) I definitely applaud Elenion trying to open the discussion, though, because there's no reason to just focus on Harambe this cycle. @Sart, you sound like you were in both Devotion PMs. Do you think you could give us a general idea of what was going on in there?
  14. Kasimir
    It's interesting that Ruin didn't kill harambe for fake-claiming Ruin. (Hells, he claimed so many things I'm not even bothering to keep track of his role-claims.) Either Ruin wasn't active, or Ruin simply thought that he was better off not night-killing harambe - possibly because he thought harambe had a Shard or something. (Or maybe he thought harambe was Team Shard.) I'm still persistently puzzled by Odium's kills. It looks like it's possible Odium has just decided to keep killing randomly (?) in the hopes of hitting on Shards, since their only win condition is to shatter all the things, so they don't really need to care about who's left. Except that intuitively, I don't think Odium is killing randomly - they're just following a different set of rules. Devotion, you've probably been busy opening PMs and stuff. If conquestor and Jondesu have been saying stuff in your opened PMs to other people, you should probably start looking for who might be Odium - just in case. No need to bring that to the thread just yet though (?) It's interesting Odium decided not to kill harambe, but I suspect that just means Odium could smell a set-up, or that conquestor said more revealing things in a PM. Whoever was in his world PMs, might be nice if you said more. With regard to Jondesu, I can back up Assassin's claims since we were in the same world PMs. I'll give a slightly more detailed report though: First of the Sun World PM - Cycle 1: 1. Jondesu says hi. 2. Magestar says hi and adds that he thinks it rude to just go and share who is on FotS with the thread like that. Questions Alv's doing so. 3. Jondesu agrees with Mage about the world-sharing. Says he needs to re-read the rules for strategies but asks everyone what they think the world PMs are for. 4. Magestar figures it's just for communication since there are no other PMs except for Devotion's. 5. Jondesu realises he's forgotten there are no other PMs this game. Thinks it makes things easier since there's no need to think about who to PM. 6. Kas cracks a joke about being on the World of Death. (Seriously, guys, Bear Grylls versus First of the Sun?) 7. Mage responds and says it's why he's thinking of moving to Scadrial and wasn't thrilled at the idea of blowing it up. Notes Scadrial seems to be really active. 8. Kas makes another joke about how he's sure it's not because Endowment could bestow awesome Mistborn powers. 9. Mage jokingly responds that was totally not a motivation for moving to Scadrial - or why he wanted Scadrial kept un-Ruined. 10. Kas cracks yet another joke, but then sobers up to say that it makes Joe's suggestion to blow up Scadrial look strange - either Joe slipped up there, or... 11. Mage says Joe's response seems odd: he seems to have forgotten but also seems to be emphasising that he had forgotten it a bit too much. Almost as if Joe was covering up. Ultimately, he is conflicted as his gut thinks Joe is Team Shard. 12. Kas jokes that he would trust Mage's gut given QF20, but he doesn't know if he can trust Mage. 13. Mage agrees that he can't trust Kas either, since he doesn't know Kas's faction. Adds that he's hoping to get a Shard soon, but that he's not confident people with Shards will pass them, ergo the people who suggest passing Shards are unlikely to be Shards. Balances that out with the wry observation that having a Shard is like asking for the Odium Überkill to come after you. 14. Kas agrees to stick to mutual distrust. Adds that the worry is really that being a Shard makes you an juicy target for Team Hoid, and that not-having a Shard makes the Odium Überkill even scarier since you're just roadkill/collateral damage. 15. Mage says it's not scary - just rage-inducing. Asks if Hoid can convert Shardholders. 16. Jondesu responds - the rules seem to suggest say, barring exceptions like Odium and their Champion. 17. Mage then reads the rules and says it's right there so he won't quote it. 18. Kas agrees that he reads the rules that way as well. Jokes it would suck to be Hoid and have Odium smash all the Shards in your collection. (Hey it was funnier originally but I have to paraphrase...) 19. Mage says Team Hoid still wins even with Shattered Shards, and there are many possibilities for cooperation between factions, but he doesn't want to talk about them since he doesn't want to go for 'forced' wins since that's boring. 20. Adds that he didn't think LG26 was 'forced' per se but it was boring because of the team-ups. 21. Kas agrees Team Hoid can still win, notes he was just joking it would annoy Hoid. Says he doesn't care about forced wins but that talking too much about the interactions between factions could alienate factions he doesn't want to alienate at this point. 22. Mage agrees and says he thinks Odium can win with Team Shard. Changes topic to asks if anyone has any suspicions. 23. Kas agrees Odium can win with Team Shard - he just thinks it would require so much micromanagement it'd be difficult, but agrees to close the topic. Offers to trade suspicions for Mage's. 24. Mage claims his gut thinks Lopen and Kas are Team Village, and that Alv and Joe are neutral but potentially bad. Jondesu/Bard and Sheep are neutral, but that's Day 1 for you. 25. Kas replies: he begins a game distrusting everyone by default, because paranoia. He's not considering anyone good yet - undecided on Sheep because of the Shard discussion. Adds that some of Sheep's evidence does not support his claims so that leaped out at him. Claims biggest suspicion would be Joe because of the previously-mentioned weird points, but eh, it's Day 1. 26. Assassin says we shouldn't lynch because we have a 90% chance of lynching a villager, due to poor evidence. 27. Jondesu agrees, at least for this game. 28. Mage counters by noting gut reads are sometimes right. Adds that the point of Day One lynches are really to get some sort of base impression of players, and information. Still, he usually doesn't vote because he has poor information, but generally, he thinks Day One lynches do more good than harm. 29. Seonid closes the PM. Make of it what you will. Edit: Whoops, sorry Alv - to your second question, he didn't worldhop on Cycle 2. It was just me, Assassin, and Jondesu, and a glorious total of 1 message in the world PM, from me on reading the write-up, saying I didn't expect us to literally be the World of Death (i.e. where Jondesu died.) Edit 2: Also, isn't Kynedath supposed to be playing this game?
  15. Kasimir
    Cycle has been extended by 24 hours, I believe, making this a 72 hour cycle. We still got plenty of time. Stick (1): Alv Bard (0): Araris<1> Sart (1): Kasimir<1> Zephrer (2): Magestar, Conquestor Magestar (2): Elodin, Araris<2> Harambe (1): Stick
  16. Kasimir
    Fair enough, Joe. Thank you. I'll be honest and agree it wouldn't confirm now!Elodin - just as no one at this point (probably with the exception of Joe, if he is a Villager) is confirmed Team Shard. Simply because we know Team Hoid could get off a conversion last night, and at an early stage in a conversion game, no one should be 100% confirmed. But at this point, my main aim in asking is frankly just to get a better sense of Elodin and Joe - and I'll admit that if it seems Elodin was invested in, then either Elodin and Joe were both on Team Hoid, or they're legit. The lack of protest from Cultivation, to add to that, means that if Elodin is invested, I would be more inclined to trust them both, as compared to my default position of distrust on everyone (but not completely because I'm paranoid >>) Stick (1): Alv Bard (0): Araris<1> Sart (1): Kasimir<1> Zephrer (2): Magestar, Conquestor Magestar (2): Elodin, Araris<2> I believe Kipper himself has said that doing up a vote tally is not rocket science...and I also believe it is likely against GM policy for the GM to confirm if a player has put in an action until later on. Not sure what people are saying with regard to a Zephrer lynch - we don't have a lynch right now, we have a tie. Which means there will be no lynch today, as things currently stand. Personally, I'm not so much for going after inactives/lurkers, and especially not right now. It's Christmas season, and people are going to be busy. And we're not very precise at picking up lurkers - just remember how many people dogpiled onto Arinian in QF20 before we realised: A. he was a villager, B. he just happened to have the tab open. My suggestion would be to do up a list of inactives and to wait a little for the 26th/27th before we start either: A. putting pressure on the inactives in the lynches, or B. putting them in a list of people whom it would be nice if Ruin / Odium night-killed. I would prefer if our Voidbringers were more careful with their kills since if they ran out, they'd be at the mercy of Cultivation. I would, in part, also prefer night-killing inactives, since I think it would encourage lurkers to come out of the woodwork, and because I think that night-killing inactives prevents us from having to waste time voting for people who just aren't going to respond. (Notice the lurker/inactive distinction, here.) However, the main weakness is that this would depend on our kill roles and potentially, Odium, being willing to do what needs to be done. It's not clear Odium has enough incentive to do that (it certainly can't hurt to ask), and it's not clear Ruin wants to do that either. (They either did not like the world destroying plan, or they were inactive, meaning that after one more cycle, the Shard will pass.) Edit: Essentially, I think that Day 3/Night 3 is a good time to start on the inactives.
  17. Kasimir
    Fair, thanks for checking. In that case, it might actually better, IMO. Awakeners are sure to be targets if they reveal themselves. But if an Awakener is just one turn, based on Endowment's investment, then they have every reason to come forward with their scans and no reason to be killed, unless, of course, Team Hoid is hoping Endowment will go back to the same person. (Or maybe I'm just making lemonade from life's lemons...)
  18. Kasimir
    Oh, wow, thanks, GM Almighty Guess this means we didn't need to guess so much. Would it be possible to just confirm that this write-up only depicts one determined attacker, as compared to two? So there we have it. Odium's getting off to a flying start, as the Corellians would put it. In which case, I do think the Elodin question is somewhat pertinent - at least, I don't see anything that might have led Odium to suspect Jondesu is a Shard, though perhaps they were just killing randomly. (Let me make my point clearer: yes, for Odium to kill Elodin would be for Odium to assume Joe hadn't separately passed his Shard. But there's nothing to go on with regard to a Jondesu kill - literally, while Joe could have spread his eggs in more than one basket, it's also somewhat strange for Joe to invest in the person he most trusted but then give a Shard to someone he trusted less. And if Joe did invest in Elodin, then the Shard would have had to go to Elodin unless Joe had passed it. It's not unassailable logic, but it seems to give a better chance of taking down a Shard - in particular, the Shard that can undo Odium's work by un-shattering a Shard. So it's really kind of strange for Odium to pass up on that shot and to go for a blinder shot in the dark.) Seonid: I'd like to repeat my question from last Night. Does Cultivation's investment have a time limit? Does Elodin lose the ability to vote-swap after this Turn, or does he retain it until use, or does he retain it for all eternity? I have a further question. Does Odium still fulfil his win condition if he shatters all the Shards but if Cultivation puts them back together? One reply might be that Jondesu said something revealing in his world PM. Problem is, I was in the same two world PMs as Jondesu (i.e. both cycles), and on both occasions, it's pretty much deader than a Triton Moon. It would also imply that someone on the same world is Odium. So while I would be slightly suspicious of worldmates, I also think it's likely that Odium either shot randomly (my guess, anyway), or Odium's playing a different kind of game than my assumptions lay out. - Yeah - I guess what I was driving at is that it really doesn't seem much of a basis for trust. It'd be like me deciding to trust Alv simply because we're both role-playing hunter type characters. I get that Day One doesn't furnish us with much information at all, but it doesn't mean we can't still differentiate between good and bad reasons. My trusting Alv because we're both RPing hunters would be a bad reason, if only because Alv's RPing a hunter (huntress, I know) has nothing to do with how likely it is he is good or evil. Essentially, since players may sometimes have reasons other than what they explicitly articulate, I just want to press Joe to articulate his reasons more. We shouldn't focus on him today. I agree with that. But it doesn't mean we shouldn't eke out information from him either. *shrugs* I just want to hear more, basically. - Don't ask me where the mutual docs thing came from. Only docs I'm in are LG28 ones, and they're under embargo >>
  19. Kasimir
    Got to say, I enjoyed sending in joke orders, though What the M'Hael got: 1. 2. 3.
  20. Kasimir
    Double post for double tap? Huh. Possible. My initial impression was that conversions took place at night, but I just re-read the rules and realised Odium's conversion is part of their investment, so I guess we're looking at a potential day convert here. I would definitely be more willing to think it is an Odium or Odium / Champion kill: in retrospect, I guess it could be a Ruin kill too. I'm less likely to think it is a Voidbringer kill, even if the writeup is complete fluff, since Voidbringers only start with 2 shots so I would not think they'd want to kill people with reckless abandon. On the current issues here: 1. Joe. I'm still not sure about him. Actually, Joe: why was Elodin the highest on your trust list? You never really explained that, only said you were investing in someone you trusted only that much (relative to everyone else.) As far as I can see, the reasons for suspicion boil down to Joe's apparently knowing where Elodin was, even before correction (Joe claims it as a coincidence which is not impossible), and some other points of weirdness, such as not tying the vote to save himself (which Joe claims to be due to player rage.) All of these are plausible, but at the moment, I'm still at my default position of distrust. Nevertheless, Joe has said he will kill himself at the end of Night 3 unless: A. he has been converted, or B. over half of us object to it. So, I'm going to bracket the issue for the time being, but I think it imperative that the Village remember to talk about this on Day 3/Night 3. 2. Endowment. The only thing I'm going to say here is that I hope you don't make this a habit, or you're going to make it bloody hard for us to do our jobs as a Village. If you want to be useful, give us protect roles and seeking roles like Awakeners, for heaven's sake! [Same point applies to everyone asking an Awakener to scan Elodin: 1. they'd have to out themselves, unless you're planning on them outting themselves only if they discovered something fishy, and 2. Not clear if Endowment invested in someone on Nalthis already, since Endowment clearly has other priorities. I don't think we're likely to start with Awakeners, since Endowment creates them, so it's apparently up to our Omnipotent Authority Figure gatekeeper. Much relief.] I would go so far as to say that if Endowment keeps Returning everyone we've lynched, then we need to start getting Ruin and other night kill roles to enforce lynches - otherwise, Endowment is just going to keep starving us of information, and even better, Team Hoid gets the initiative on us. 3. Elodin. Easily settled. I'm going to vote for Sart, because I don't think he's said anything yet (for this cycle), and I'm fonding remembering QF4 where he was Hoid and majorly slipped under the radar. What do you think of everything so far, Sart? Since no one else seems to be pursuing this idea, I recommend Elodin change my vote on Sart to one on Darkness Ascendant. I don't think either of them seem in danger of death right now, and hopefully, if anyone prefers another target, they'll say it early so it can be done. 4. My last thought kind of builds off #2. That at some point, it might be very helpful to petition beg pray to have Ruin begin killing inactives. I hesitate to talk about making a Night lynch, partly because that idea tends to fizzle, and partly because we only have 24 hours, so timezones will probably mess with discussion. I wouldn't recommend starting now, especially since Christmas will mean rampant inactivity (and understandably so), but I think that by Cycle 4 or so, we should start looking into killing people who are essentially lurking/inactive. The sea breeze ruffled his hair and Kaikoa's feathers, bringing with it the familiar, briny scent of saltwater. The footprints ahead of him ended in the surf. Tenth knelt down, but saw no trace of where his target might have vanished to. He grunted, and fed Kaikoa a bit of dried jerky. There was no freshly-caught fish, today. He would have to make it up to the Aviar later. Who was this man Khriss wanted them to hunt? He knew little enough about the greater game they played. It was not his, and that was enough for him. He would not have come to Silverlight, if not for the asking. He would have continued to track her, instead - the woman with the red hat, and the Aviar mating plume stuck jauntily in it, almost as a taunt; both warning and lure. But he had his profession to think of. Wearily, he rose, brushing fine sand off his trousers. It fell through his fingers, and disappeared, becoming one with the beach. There had been another, at Silverlight. He had thought of approaching her, but...But there were no words, Tenth decided, moodily. There were never enough words. He trudged back; off the beach, the surf already gently erasing the line of footprints he had been following. He almost cut his foot on a piece of shell and shook his head. Sloppy. The danger was everywhere, he reminded himself. It was only that he had been trained to think of Patji.
  21. Kasimir
    Boo's peanuts, you and Awes told me to play the n00b. You never gonna let that go, Sarge? - One question: why Jondesu? Specifically, why not Elodin? Assumption: 17S begins with just Hoid, ergo no kill. Only kill in play was Odium's. Jondesu seems a shot in the dark, unless Odium was going off psychological reasons. My World PM with Jondesu and others never went anywhere near Shards - we joked around, and talked a bit about suspicions and lynches. Second World PM was just dead. Would also require someone in the same PM to be Odium. Going with Elodin had to at least give Odium a slightly better shot at hitting a Shard, in case Joe did not pass the Shard and it went to last-invested. So. Why Jondesu? Why not Elodin? Do we know if kills fail?
  22. Kasimir
    1. Unsubstantiated assertion. Try again. 2. Unsubstantiated assertion + wishful thinking. Try again. 3. Fair point, in which case Endowment has far better things to be doing. See: arguments unaddressed except by unsubstantiated, sweeping assertions.
  23. Kasimir
    As the last surviving representative of House Urbain (*cough* the House of Paranoia *cough*), I'd like to erase the possibility of Elodin-Joe collusion by asking Elodin to do a vote-swap on the next day. Good way to forestall doubters too, I think, since Elodin's investment should vanish whether he does or doesn't do anything (leaving aside the "Who is Cultivation?" question.) [Actually, GMs, could I confirm if Cultivation's investment also has a time limit or whether it doesn't? This is not clear to me from the rules text. @Seonid, @Elbereth] This, of course, is me assuming no one starts as an Elantrian, but I find this a tad likely, since some minor roles are bestowed by Endowment. (Technically, this doesn't rule out the possibility he could be Hoid, or Endowment, but then, at least it sets up one plausible case for us. I see the latter case as being less likely.) This would also prevent an Awakener from having to out themselves. (I think.) Other than that, I really don't see what would be the point of resurrecting Joe at this point in time. First, I generally like more robust confirmation of a player's allegiances before we do something like Return them. I'm not seeing this here - just chains of assumptions that have only been weakly tested. (One method of testing has been suggested above.) Even if Joe is Cultivation, returning him to life won't give him back his Shard, will it? It'll just make him a big, honking target screaming, "HEY, I'M A PRETTY MUCH CONFIRMED VILLAGER, COME CONVERT ME!" to practically everyone, including Hoid, Odium, and Autonomy. Conversely, if you think Hoid, Odium and Autonomy won't find a returned Joe attractive, the problem is that the possibility still exists, since it essentially becomes about trying to outguess everyone who can convert people in this game. In a conversion game, scans and confirmation are a commodity, always offered in degrees, never in absolutes. All the more so for one like this. So I don't really see the point in that reasoning. (Of course, if you think Joe is a good player and you want him alive because of that, then that's a different story.) Now, it's not to say we can't win with Odium and Autonomy, but the worrying question is whether Odium and Autonomy see their play as being with us. If it doesn't, then we're still in an awkward position anyway - and it's just worsened once you throw Team Hoid into the mix. P.S. Let's keep an eye on those who voted. Squabbling over Day 1 lynches aside, I have a feeling at least some of those who voted were people who really wanted to receive an extra action. Tenth of the Dusk slipped away. He was not appalled or shocked: not entirely. You did not live years on Patji without learning there were questions which need not be asked, without an appreciation for swift killing efficiency. He had his eye on another, though. He knew a fellow hunter when he saw one. For now, he kept Kaikoa close. He did not want to lose hold of him, in this place. He had come to the feast only because he was asked to. This place - this city - it was not his. He did not think he knew how to feel comfortable, even now, within the dense buildings of a city, rather than the lush, killing jungles of the Pantheon islands. They did not frighten him, those hulking men in gleaming metal shells. He had known greater terrors than those. Still, Tenth was not reckless. And like most of the guests at this feast, he was hardly unarmed. The other guests were discussing the killing in soft, frightened whispers. Some of them were leaving, like himself. Probably to the worlds from which they had come. Tenth did not understand this. Why order everyone to remain in Silverlight, only to ask them to return to their tasks - some of which lay elsewhere? It made no sense. Kaikoa nibbled lightly on his ear. "Hush," Tenth said, pre-emptorily, although Kaikoa had not chirped. He made up his mind. He would go: back to his world, back to his safecamp (he could not shed the term so easily, even now), and then he would make his decisions there. Khriss had offered a hunt. Tenth did not intend to go back on his word. But he did not like this situation, either. It was a nest of deathants, and if he'd known... He left.
  24. Kasimir
    Turn's closed. Be back after the break!
  25. Kasimir
    Probably with the exception of Survival, since Odium wants to shatter all the things Shards. Sucks to be you, Survival D: If "darn annoying" extends to finding yourself dead because Odium got trigger-happy and thought you were a Shard, yeah Though I don't see Odium's win con as being necessarily exclusive to ours, but a trigger-happy Odium attacking everyone they think is a Shard could be pretty costly for us, since it's an überkill, minimally speaking. I dunno. Will probably go and see how the past games played out for some idea of this instead of complaining about being lost repeatedly, like a fool
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