Kasimir

Current Reads Moderate Trust: (Sorry, I don't think I do utter trust unless it's deductively certain. A bit too paranoid.) Soysauce: i.e. not too much trust, not too little. Weak Trust. Rice Noodle Rolls: aka bland, bleargh, meh, dunno. This tier is already cause for alarm, in my eyes. Seems Suss, Lynch Later Maybe, IDK: Durian: aka something stinks here Putting all the evidence together, I don't feel especially strongly on Araris right now, and I don't think it entirely eradicates the reasons for doubt. Ultimately, while he's no longer my strongest suspicion, I'd not be upset if we lynched him. My biggest suspicion is (hoo boy, surprise!) Mat. Anyway, goodnight all, I'm dead tired and I want to crash so I shall stop trying to be useful. See you all on the other side of rollover - or not

That's interesting, because bottom-line, the conditionals aren't the same. The conditional I mentioned is (C1) "If Araris is an Elim, then Illwei is unlikely to be one" and (C2) "If Illwei is an Elim, then Araris is unlikely to be one." The problem is that conditionals aren't directional, and the conjunction of (C1) and (C2) is actually not a bi-conditional, given we waive the language of probability ("unlikely") and just treat it straight-out as a normal conditional so we can use negation rules. The inverse you might thinking of is (I1) "If Illwei is Village, then Araris is an Elim," and (I2) "If Araris is Village, then Illwei is an Elim." The conjunction would be (I1) and (I2). The issue is that (I1) & (I2) don't have the same truth-table as (C1) & (C2). In short, they're not the same conditionals - opinion on (C1) & (C2) does not automatically affect (I1) & (I2). My current take if one flips Village: light suspicion on Illwei if Araris flips Village, and w.r.t. Araris, unclear atm if Illwei flips Village. Bottom line, evidence should be taken as a whole, yeah? Of course it could be distancing, especially since nothing precludes what I'm thinking about from counting as distancing since it happened prior to Devotary. If there's other, independent/new reason to think Illwei or Araris is suspicious [Edited to add: e.g. one of them last-minute driving the vote to the other in a new cycle], then I'd go for the other. But really, maybe the less confusing way to phrase my statement is as follows: I assign low probability to the possibility that Illwei and Araris are Elims together. So this tells me nothing if one of them turns up Village - in fact, I would expect that, given my statement.

Right, then. Some thoughts prior to my updated reads: 1. This means we have two confirmed vote manips on the Elim team. Given the weirdness with Devotary's vote - I really wonder if it's Lahilt at work, but that gives us more votes that don't make sense, so we have to postulate even more vote shenanigans. I asked if it was Devotary herself using Abrasion on herself but got PAFOed and told it had to do with OOA, which could mean we're looking at a kind of vote interaction here. Either way, I wouldn't be surprised if there's more Elim vote firepower. I just want to flag that what happened with Straw is a good example of the limitations of distro reasoning: we were technically right that at least one Cohesion person had to be an Elim - it's just that the pool of people with Cohesion turned out to be larger than we expected, such than an undeclared Cohesion user (Straw) turned out to be our Elim. Not to say we can't use distro reasoning, but that it has limitations, so as usual, not in isolation. 2. I disagree that it's too on the nose for Elan to oppose the two lynches - but I actually also don't especially think Elan is an Elim at this point in time. I don't really want to try reading Elan even when I'm 100% in the game because I suck at IKYKs and our Elim profile mismatches just makes it worse So basically, yes, I'm too scared of Elan to try, so sue me. The thing is, both Mint and I highlighted the fact that the lack of active opposition [again, remember, actual alternative lynches - something more serious than just questions about Lotus's and Straw's claims] to the Straw lynch. This is directly opposite what went on with Devotary, where we had Mat and Lotus proposed as alternative lynch candidates. As mentioned previously, I theorise that this implies the Elims will either have bandwagoned onto the Straw lynch for Village cred, or simply hung back and joined later on. I'm going to identify the three clusters: I've greyed out the names of those I think are likely to be Villagers, and blued those are think are potentially Village but I'm less certain of them. As mentioned, TJ was early in the vote trains on Straw and Devotary. Even if we postulate the Devotary lynch was a bus, the second Straw lynch, so quick to follow, is less likely to be one, in my eyes. And Lotus was first off the bat to scan Straw and report it. A second bus to gain trust so soon after Devotary is unlikely. Furthermore, IMO, if Lotus were an Elim fakeclaiming a scan for trust, there's no reason not to claim action scanner, rather than target scanner. (Yes, she did claim History in a PM with me and in thread, and referenced it in D1 RP, but still... Not like Lahilt didn't lie about his background D1.) Anyway, I don't think those greys are controversial, but I just wanted to mention my reasoning briefly anyway. I've italicised Ash because he posted about three minutes past the hour, which is acceptable lag, but strictly speaking, not within the hour. Given the concerted lack of Elim opposition, I don't actually think the Elims would be so bold as to directly question/challenge the lynch in this case. They're more likely to tentatively bite onto the prospect of alternative lynch, or to hide behind those who are questioning the lynch. (In Elan's case, I'd note that her piling a vote onto Straw after being convinced it's not a kayana lynch would be a cheap way to earn credit without notice. I don't think that's very Elim.) Araris and Illwei surprise me. They piled very quickly onto the Straw vote, which almost makes me suspect something fishy, given they're (or were, in Araris's case) two of my higher-tier Elim suspects. This could be to gain Village credit. I'm just not really sure what to make of this. 3. Here's another data-set to compare with. Evidently I need to think about things that aren't case/patient contact-tracing for a while. This is from D3: Looking at the votes again: I still think it is unlikely that the early voters are Elims, considering how much the Devotary lynch was contested until the two claims. I'm still weakly willing to regard Striker as being mild Village. While I am mildly suspicious of Araris still, I kind of feel like Araris desisting from voting on Devotary has the same implications as Elan: it's a really easy way to gain Village credit, or at least, not to stand out. The fact he didn't do it makes me reconsider - for the moment - some of my heavy suspicions. And the thing is, Village!Araris and me have always butted heads in the past about how to be Village. So there's that as well, at least for me. 4. If Araris is an Elim, it is in my view is unlikely for Illwei to be one. And vice versa. Make of that what you will. 5. @Illwei, did you double-vote last Turn? 6. I feel like I have a new law to add to El's favourite slogan: Kas's Law: The more often a player says, unsolicited, "Confirmed good does not mean confirmed right," the more likely they are to be an Elim. I'd argue it's true that the Village sometimes takes confirmed or highly probably Good players to be correct a bit too quickly, but then this slogan is often used to dismiss what IMO is a fairly legit thing, which is analysing what a Good player says without having to be wary of their motives or that they're trying to throw in scapegoats/false leads. That's a different level of critical reading from having to ask yourself if you're being misled. I swear this has happened often enough in my past few games, and Straw just did it again 7. @Vapor Noted. Did the GMs forget, or you planned on sending the order in tonight? (Might want to @ them if they forgot.) 8. I genuinely don't know what to make of so much Progression flying around. People, please use your Backgrounds wisely. They're the one thing that can't be blocked by Progression, only Division. Current updated claims: 9. As mentioned before, I anticipate anywhere between 2-3 more Elims, with 4 being the high end.

You do have a Background, you know But more seriously, I have never considered your role-block to be unproven. My read of you comes from the usual source: posts and votes (albeit with weaker analysis on my part than usual since I don't have the time to actually focus on the game beyond rough staring in my breaks) - which is true of everyone else in the thread, too. I agree, let's try to make this QF45 If you're Village.

I've been too busy to read Peace Talks (in fact, I completely missed the release date) but from what everyone is saying, I'll wait and pick it up along with Battle Ground and just marathon them together.

Ages ago. It didn't really stick out to me but it wasn't awful. Eli Monpress...In short, it was my introduction to Rachel Aaron, and I checked all the books out from the library. I don't dislike Eli Monpress - it's fun, but the pacing issues I mention really frustrate me. I like her Paradox series (also fun) but I'd say she at least balances out that tendency a bit in Heartstrikers. Probably my favourite of all her books, especially since she did a Shadowrun-type world

Lmao! Dark bro Wir denken perfekt zusammen. Glaub nie 'was anderes Oh, and yeah, like TJ, I decided to use Progression during the Day instead because with no guaranteed OOA, I had no way of knowing if getting killed would block my use of Progression at Night. @Elkanah, @The_God_King: Any chance we could get a clarification if killing blocks all actions? (Worth a shot ) Edit: Spelling. Edited to add: Honestly, I go to and fro on the Medicine and Progression thing. If I'm right, and Progression has to be triggered or is a RNGesus thing, it's possible that they built redundancy into the ability. But other than being a disease-specific roleblock, as compared to a full roleblock, based off our current knowledge of the game, I'm having a hard time trying to figure out what utility, from a game design perspective, this redundancy serves.

Okay, I have thoughts, but I also need to address the stuff people are pinging me over first: @Vapor, what's the D3 Devotary scan like? I'll put in a scan order for the Straw scan, but if a vote scanner has not already put in an order, I encourage them to do so just in case. Yes. Yes it does. 7 if Ash is claiming Historian too @The_God_King, @Elkanah: Is Illwei's vote supposed to be missing? Nope. Double-Voter #3 was someone else. This does mean our Elim team has at least 2 vote manip roles. Nope. None of the claimed target scanners was Straw. Three people healed of diseases in one cycle? Okay, so. Confession time. I made an odd comment during D4: I asked for Vapor or Vote-Scanner #2 to do me a favour and scan the Devotary lynch. This is because I was using an action - a very late decision that I agonised over - and thus swapped my order off Devotary. At the start of D4, I was informed I had gained the Progression Surge. Since I suspected Araris, I decided to heal Araris of Progression during the Night to stop him from continuing to hit people with it. And then Araris posted about his suspicions of Matrim And I looked at my suspicions list again, which had: Straw, Matrim, Illwei, and Araris. I asked myself if it was worth hitting Araris with Progression. After all, as long as Araris had Progression, Mat would be roleblocking him. In addition, if I had my way, Araris would be up for the lynch, although I was starting to be confused about Araris. Finally, if Araris was telling the truth, then whether or not I hit him with Progression, he would still have one more heal. Moreover, Progression can't remove background-abilities, which have proved more helpful to the Village so far. So I looked at my other suspicions: Illwei and Mat. In my eyes, while I am uncertain about Illwei, Illwei has not been wildly using his double vote. As far as I'm concerned, his use of the double vote has so far been accountable. Meanwhile, I was also uncertain about Mat. My other thought was that for as long as Araris lived, Mat would not be using his role-block for any other function except blocking Araris, which meant that the Village would be forced to kill Araris if we wanted to get off a role-block that actually finds Elims from Mat. And take note: since unique actions can only be done once a cycle, this means that if Mat role-blocked Araris during the day, we would be stuck with Araris and Mat in a potential cat-and-mouse over which Turn an action is being sent in. Not to mention this means that even if Araris is an Elim, most of his actions have been Progression rather than the kill, so we have not - so far - been able to discover him killing via targeting or action scans. So there's the currently limited utility of that role-block. Plus, I was already suspicious of Mat for reasons I outlined last Turn. And I figured it was illogical to ignore one of my suspicions, just because he had a role-block. So yeah. Remember me questioning my judgement near the end of last Turn? I sent in the order to remove Progression from Araris and then swapped targets to Mat. I used the Surge. I spared Araris. I won a kayana point. Almighty forgive me.

Writing! Ordinary scribbling, taking notes, and calligraphy, depending on the nib. I have a cheap [read: for a fountain pen] Noodler's Ahab that I use for calligraphy, alongside a TWSBI Eco 1.1 Stub. Some nibs are better at giving you line variation so you can produce calligraphy, or just add interest to your writing. But I know people who use normal round nibs to do typewriter print font, for instance. For me, I just like the feel of writing with a fountain pen, by which I mean the tactile feel of the pen on paper. I like there are so many fun ink combinations, too. The Chinese market has an awesome amount of ink releases, and I meet with my local pen/friend group to try 'em out and share I always carry a normal ballpoint/gel pen with me, but to work, I've always brought either a Lamy Safari or my cheap Hero 007. Lamy Safaris can take a lot of a beating. And since it's under a dollar for one Hero 007, I don't feel bad if I lose it, or if a colleague tries it out. There's also the Delika Alpha, which... My rationale is if (as in people's stories), the Delike Alpha can survive being crushed by a car and being used by a paramedic to break a window, then it's probably fine to be abused by going to work with me I do have more expensive pens, and they generally remain at home. If I bring them to work, they go in a pen case. Fountain pens can last a long time if you care for them well. And some companies like Franklin-Christoph have a lifetime warranty. Keep in mind that a lot of people collect and use vintage pens, some of which have been around in the 1930s I have and use a repaired Pelikan 140 that has been around since the 50s-60s. On the other end of the spectrum, you have stories of people who accidentally had a Sailor or a Visconti (expensive!) roll off their desk and hit the floor nib-first. Ouch! The thing about fountain pens is that you have to be willing to be careful with them. Some inks are notoriously awful, or can melt nibs/feeds. If you're decently aware of that, and avoid putting an ink like Organic Studios Aristotle in there for ages, the pen can last for quite a long time. Since you're refilling ink, you will be reusing the pen after all! Should you start? IMO, it's possible, but it's up to you and your risk appetite. Since you mention that you tend to lose the pens you take to school, I would recommend the world of cheap Chinese/Japanese fountain pens. There's no sense dipping into pricier pens if you might lose them If you're curious, getting a Platinum Preppy [seconding @Iarwainiel] won't be too much of an investment, and a Preppy will let you try out the fountain pen writing experience. (I'd recommend Chinese, but with Chinese pens, e.g. Jinhao Sharks, they don't always write well out of the box, so you may need to do a bit of tuning/maintenance. If you don't know if you want this, no point in getting into these situations. So...yeah.) Inky fingers! Welcome to the suffering! I kept wondering why I missed replies. Turns out I forgot to follow this thread Thanks! I've been enjoying writing with it too! Due to some weirdness with the converter, I've popped in a Parker Blue-Black cartridge. If I can fix the converter, then I'll probably use that, otherwise syringe-fill. I'm currently planning a refill with Diamine Prussian or Misty Blue - something not extraordinary. I have dedicated beater pens for wild inks 100% this for me too! I'm a bit over sheen - my current hankering is for shading inks - but then one of my friends just shared a dark blue-black ink with a pink sheen from Cherry Blossom Inks yesterday and I was all 'woah.'

Storm it. I don't feel good about this and I hate this and I don't trust my own judgement :/

^ This. The Village's best check against blind spots is if everyone applies their own reasoning, or even gut, and discusses. I say this but please, please, someone scan the Devo lynch to figure out why we have the weird vote counts we do

Like I said. We're a freaking target-rich environment rn.

...You may wanna rethink who you're asking, considering I put the 'kas' into 'kayana' Depends on how important you judge it. I'm just gonna say that if you think anyone in the Yelling chat was Elim, then there's a chance it's already out of the bag anyway. (I could say the same of certain other people...) Anyway. The thing is, I am about 80% certain the Village has no protection. Sart should not have died, period. If we did, they got role-blocked and didn't want to come forward (understandable, but...) So I don't really know what you mean by surpassing the shadow, but unless someone snaps and gets Lurcher powers, I'm vaguely certain you might have made yourself a target anyway, and the Elim team might have made certain inferences. I think the question worth asking is: it's under 40 minutes to the cycle ending. Do you think a lynch with nearly a 5-vote plus margin can be turned around in that time? Because I'm assuming that's what you're suggesting: that your info is lynch-affecting. I'm willing to change my vote, but I have just one vote. IDK if we can have a good margin. Would either Vote Scanner #2 or Vote Scanner #3 mind scanning the D3 Devotary lynch?

Hahaha! I'd give you a pro-gamer move meme but I'm too tired, so you get an upvote instead. I'll have you know RPing my concerns/discussion takes effort Effort I'm too knackered to put in right now, as I just got relieved and am trudging off-shift And I am just thoroughly sick of connections. @Matrim's Dice Hi, I misread, it seems Just to confirm, you're saying you agree with most of Ash's reads, not Lotus's? Reference here: I hate saying I don't have the time to do a proper reads list, but it's true. I will try to do something as a sort of temporary slap-patch, with the caveat I have not been doing detailed reading/analysis and will hopefully be able to come back to it during my lunch break tomorrow. Reads (Ordered from Most to Least) Unimpeachable: Moderately Trust: Slightly Trust: Meh! (Bad): This category is basically about as bland as plain chee cheong fun [i.e. rice noodle rolls] without anything. Part of this is on me. But I also take players being in this category as a warning sign, because this means you're starting to slip into the profile. Seems Suss, Might Lynch Later, IDK: Nothing Is Certain In This World But They're Likely Evil: There we go. And finally, for this cycle: I notice a notification is warning me Illwei posted something but I am too tired for this drek so whatever to the ninja. I'm going to get a super late dinner and crash now since my head is all mush. Edit: To clear things up, I don't believe everyone in my suspicions list - particularly everyone on the Lotus lynch D3 - is Evil. I think that would be a bad Elim move, to put all their eggs in one basket, and I'm fully expecting at least one Elim in Meh!, and potentially one in higher trust reads. What I am saying is that based on my current state of ignorance, these are where my suspicions lie.

Can't complain about that since I'm in a similar predicament. It's going to be ironic I'm saying this, but I'm intuitively somewhat uncomfortable with how little active opposition this particular lynch has attracted, especially with Araris jumping on board. (And also, as compared to what happened last cycle - especially considering we have weaker evidence qualitatively in terms of actions! Personally, I think the vote evidence is a bit stronger than Devotary lynching Pyro, though.) Active opposition as in people actively opposing and trying to shift the lynch away as opposed to everyone trying to puzzle out what is going on, and the plausibility of the Mechanic claim. To me, this is weak suggestion that something is fishy - or; well, I'll get to the or. Some people have also noted Straw is playing uncharacteristically - I'll just say I don't play enough with Straw to be able to form a definite judgement here/there. I am weakly suspicious of the targeting and the Mechanic claim, and I don't think that should be decisive - they're more the last straw, if you will. To me, the fact Straw initiated the Lotus counterlynch and encouraged us to take a look at other lynch candidates is suspicious, though not overly [Edit: i.e. decisively] so. (I feel that encouraging the Village to not narrow down on a single candidate should never be a bad thing.) I've taken a look at the events again, and I'm more concerned with @Illwei and @Matrim's Dice stacking votes on Lotus, one after another. I notice that Mat frames the Lotus/Devotary choices as between who is more responsive - which I understand as "I'd rather lynch you than Devotary," but I also don't really understand why D3 Mat claimed that Lotus was his top Elim suspicion, which I take to be a stronger claim than "I'd rather lynch you than Devotary." If you have said that most of Lotus's reads are reads you agree with, and that Lotus is being responsive, whyever was she your top Elim suspicion? I don't think we ever heard why Illwei stacked a vote on Lotus, and I'd like to hear it. I think those who stacked votes on Lotus especially with little seeming reason should be almost as suspicious, and this isn't the first time Illwei has been bearish on Devotary. I distrust that to some extent. @Araris Valerian, I'm interested in why you voted for Mat as well. [Note that if Lotus is an Elim, our reads of the D3 situation change drastically, because this means that Elims are not likely to be enthusiastic about either lynch.] Anyway. On to my own conditionals, because everyone and their dog is doing this. If Straw is an Elim, it's worth taking a look at more of those who opposed or were disengaged from the Devotary lynch, though I don't really think all the Eliminators will be hiding there. Worth a look at everyone who went after Lotus too, IMO. And Elan. If Straw is a Villager, what I really want time to do is to look at players who are both: A) either opposing the Devotary lynch or late to join in, and B ) hanging back from the Straw lynch or participated unenthusiastically or C)* directing attention to players actively pushing the Straw lynch. C) might be a bit controversial, so I've asterisked it. My personal read is that it doesn't mean that we don't necessarily have Elims pushing for the Straw lynch, but this seems to me to once again be risky. As a matter of profile, Sart was a direct threat as a more or less strongly Good Villager (huh, funny how well this playstyle fits Araris's predicted profile.) If Straw is Village, Eliminators know this is a bad lynch. They have no incentive to get caught pursuing it zealously. And here's the or I flagged earlier - either something is fishy, or this tells us something about how this particular Elim team (I'm guessing 3-4 more left, just based off the 1/4 rule) prefers to play. If they're not playing/killing for lynch/discussion dominance, my take is that the lack of strong opposition might really indicate a preference for subterfuge. Additionally, the Straw case might be vastly different because: Lotus declared immediately, and the votes smacked down almost immediately, which means any attempt to start a counterlynch was DOA. Anyway, this is the most thought y'all can get out of me this cycle. Back to work. My vote remains, as do my questions.

You don't say... And... If you want to argue for a different lynch, feel free. Whoever does get lynched, this shift will prove informative.

Updated backgrounds based on claim and GM data:

No she's not. Vote Scanner #2 is someone else. This would make her Vote Scanner #3, with another claim. @Illwei Edited: Seconded question of why this is being brought up now.

1. Dude, I don't know of any Biologists. Gears and Dev had Medicine backgrounds, as @Illwei said, whereas Araris is claiming Medicine 2. I do know/strongly suspect what Physics does, but am weighing whether to tell the thread. Would like to hear input on this. Vote scanners have Realmatic Theory, which is clear from where our background numbers match up, and I might as well just come out and say this since Illwei asked previously about my D1 claim. I didn't really want to come out and say History was Target Scanners as certain people claimed Historian publicly in thread, and I wasn't certain if they wanted me painting a target on their heads 3. I agree about the background unlikeliness - I would be more inclined to read continued silence as no other Mechanics existing, thus unable to confirm/deny. I do think that even if Mechanic exists, it would be more helpful to Elims than to Village if we look at the original set-up. But that's a weak point because it relies on distro assumptions, so I would not take it as individually decisive. (Assumptions like all three role-blockers being Village, or assumptions about the relative prevalence of Division.)

If I still had my condition-ability, it would be ironic, because I'm actually coming down with a cold rn >>;;; This is the one blasted week where everything that can happen happens. Not sure if I'm storing Fortune or something rn. Anyway. I put in an order to check the Devotary vote. I might as well just do this before I forget. Someone @ me if someone 'fesses up to being the one who messed with the vote counts. Thoughts on the Straw issue: 1. A target scan is unfortunately slightly weaker than an action scan. This does leave open the possibility that both Lotus and Straw are telling the truth. Any lynch on Straw should probably not be on the basis of the target scan alone. That being said, I certainly think there are other factors worth considering. 2. Given that this is a role-madness game, I'd like to ask if anyone else who has a Mechanics background is willing to come forward to confirm/deny what is being said about Mechanics. Same for anyone with Medicine. (I'm less confident on Medicine, since we have two dead and the third is Araris, but considering we have four to five Historians the last I checked, maybe it's true?) 3. Some people have commented that it seems unlikely that the Village started out with three role-blockers at once. I think that might be weak reason to worry, but that would lead us to consider Mat. (Sart is dead and Village, and TJ is high on most trust lists, including my own.) That being said, let's consider the game balance issue. If you start the Village with three role-blockers (let's just take this as a given for now) in a game, what is the natural counterbalance? IMO, people who can remove role-block abilities, e.g. Progression. And people who can make role-blocks and vote manips irrelevant. 4. Role-claims like Devotary's Transportation claim tend to be a bit more persuasive because of our ignorance. To partly combat this, I'm going to state the known backgrounds and numbers, though not the abilities they correspond to: History: 5 Chemistry: 1 (putatively; 2) Physics: 2 Medicine: 3 Realmatic Theory: 2 Mechanics: 1 The numbers are extremely imbalanced in favour of History atm, which could be a sign that something is off, though I'm not really sure. 5. I roughly agree with TJ. In light of Devotary being an Eliminator, we have to look at vote movements, and people who wanted to shift pressure off Devotary. While I don't think that all Eliminators clearly fought the Devotary lynch, IMO, given how hard Devotary fought and how much people were confused until Sart claimed action scanner, I think it is fair to suspect some Elims on the other votes. I'd also look out for late bandwagoners - if we theorise the Lotus lynch was competitive until it wasn't (see Sart), I think we want to look for roughly the point at which it was clear Devotary could not be saved in terms of the arguments brought to bear. That brings us to both Straw and Araris, with Straw having been more integral to that shift than Araris. (Of course, as Sart pointed out, that raises questions about Illwei and Matrim as well.) [Edit: to be clear, there are other players who count as late bandwagoners, just no bandwidth for vote analysis right now.] 6. FWIW, Lotus's power checks out to me based on what I know about how Target Scanning works. She scans a player's targets. This is consistent with what Target Scanners #1 and #2 reported to me, as did something else both Lotus and Target Scanner #1 [Edit: and #2] said earlier on. But I repeat: since Lotus is a target scanner, it is technically possible for both of them to be truthful. (And of course, either or both might not be.) But in light of #5, and given the targeting claim, I'm happy to leave my vote where it is for the moment. Maybe if I have more time to come back and think about it... [ @Ashbringer, @Illwei ]

A mask, my first unfeeling scrap of clothing Pity comes too late- Turn around and face your fate: Eternal quarantine before you die! -The Phantom of 2020 and apparently this game too #1. Straw. I think this more or less definitively settles the question of whether there is Village protection, since it's very clear that any existing Village protection should have been on Sart, and IMO, that's what role-blocks are for. They're sub-optimal protections because you have to block the person making the kill, but they're what we have, alongside a reported Thug. #2. This. I'd encourage we not lose steam or focus on the discussions - I still think we should talk about last Cycle's voting, but frankly, it's not the same without lynch pressure. Better than nothing though. If we do not discuss, we lose a cycle. That's one free cycle the surviving Elims (whether or not Straw is one) have to continue to hide, free from Village pressure. I stand by what I've said, in albeit fragmented fashion, about Araris last cycle. If I have time (hahahahahHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH) I'll do a more integrated post identifying my current reads. [Edit: I will say Sart's death makes me more confident of some of my reads.] #3. At least five, since none of the mentioned backgrounds are mine. And I agree with the scepticism on medical being a repetition on heal. Doesn't seem right to me, since we don't have repetition between any other known background-ability and known condition-ability. It's awfully convenient. I also note that having a healing ability trips alarm flags for me because: healing TJ, a claimed role-blocker, which does not seem very Village, and also Devotary conveniently claimed to be an alignment scanner who would die N4. Given that she would have to claim to be 'healed' eventually, I think there's weak reason to believe she would be aware of an existing healer. #4. Duuude This is literally why we asked you if you used your double vote last cycle. If you had, then the missing votes check out. There were 12 votes on Devotary. Going from what I know of the role-claims, there should only be 11 votes. Which indicates to me someone possibly used Abrasion to shift a null vote onto Devotary, or Tension - if they used Tension, they were lucky, but not incredibly so, since we're seeing 50-50 odds of being on either vote. Or, straightforwardly, Double-Voter #4, assuming you and #3 are both truthful. It'd be nice if whoever did the vote shenanigans on Devotary 'fessed up now before I need to put in an order to check out who put the 'vot(e)' into Devotary Not that I won't, but I'll side-eye you freaking hard when I catch you #5. No. And I agree we need clarity on whether Lotus is claiming action scanner or otherwise. People are not wrong to point out that Lotus might have scanned some other kind of action, but under the circumstances, if Straw turns out Elim (I'm happy to hear arguments for why we shouldn't lynch him later on), we want to be looking at the people doing the pushback, and especially those riding the pushback but not fronting it. Edit: @Matrim's Dice, who did you role-block?

Ah. Yes I'm as surprised about that as my primary purpose of PMs was initially to get past my quotes difficulty, then it was because I wanted to feel people out esp. if not vocal about thoughts + suspicions in thread.

Comment on a lot of potential V actions. Edit: Not bad/suspicious necessarily, just "u srs bro?"

For Illwei. It's necessary that he is a double voter. Strictly speaking, my evidence for Illwei being a double voter is more powerful than my evidence for Double-Voter #3 being a double-voter. In the case of double-voter #3, I have their claim plus the fact they correctly described the flavour and rules of our disease. I also have the fact their claim explains the Lahilt vote and we already have some idea of the Lotus / Pyro votes that cycle. But the point I'm making is that this is the results I received for C1 Mist scan, which IMO are of necessity more powerful since it's a scan result: The issue is the second Illwei vote is distinctive. I'd argue you can't reproduce that by other vote manip since it requires the existence of a second vote simpliciter. @Matrim Not really sure why you are surprised. Been looking like it has the potential to end up being quasi role-madness for a while. + Not convinced that roles automagically help Elims, self-serving reasoning here. If role-blockers recklessly role-block, different story. Thread accountability is important. Araris doesn't seem interested in that. + uncomfortable with medical claim—we don't know what it does + conveniently same background as Dev - attempt to suggest they both can't be same? P.S. Worth relooking Dev C1 voting behavior esp. vis-a-vis Araris: + C2 reasoning for voting Illwei because Mint seems fraught/motivated. Don't affirm the consequent. Bad logical fallacy. Agreed that attempts to divert to Matrim vote (Ar) + Lotus train were likely to save Dev. Suspicious.

Possibly, that's true. We do need to be wary of that, but I also suspect we have some actual bussing votes and distancing votes anyway. Just look at the number of players voting on Devotary. Anyway. Brief announcement to make. (And yes, I'm sorry. I wouldn't have signed up for this game if I knew RL was going to be this disruptive, sigh...) Got a text from my boss an hour ago, which means going forwards, I have once again been rotated onto the active COVID-19 duty roster. I don't really know when/if I'm going to get the time and space I need to do deep, focused analysis or vote pattern analysis. If y'all want to yeet me, that's fine, because I don't know if I can afford to give this game even the divided attention level I've been doing for the past week or so. (Probably try 'three brain cells'...) That's about it. Going to get some affairs in order and try to give some people the tools they need, since I expect to be a kill target tonight anyway. If it's not already obvious, I think y'all should look into Araris tomorrow. Not just on the basis of Target Scanner #2 (though this would also be a validation of Target Scanner #2 if they're right), but because Araris has exhibited some odd voting patterns over the past cycles. Especially pronounced and highlighted by Ash last cycle. I'll see if there's anything left for me to say beyond that. I only wish I could leave y'all with more useful things. Village 파이팅!