Kasimir

Same way as MR38 did, with approximately 7 cycles [this is really up to me to set as it's arbitrary, but IMO a game that drags for more than 7 cycles starts to get annoying for everyone], in which the Elims must aim to get lynched (or 'elected') at least 4 out of 7 times. The difference between this game and typical Elim games are two things: first, there's no kill - a player can get silenced for a cycle (or several, I suppose, if the Elims really dislike you), and second, the aim if you are a Villager is actually to get lynched (since you want to deny the Elims 4/7 lynches, or 'seats.') The twist which I've borrowed from QF40 to make it more Avalon-like is as follows: Added the Tineye, who is the equivalent of the Merlin in Avalon, or the Reform Spy in QF40. The issue with adding a role that knows who all the bad guys are is that this needs an almost immediate nerf: nothing stops the Tineye from posting to the thread and dumping all the names of the Elims. This is why PMs are closed and why we have the General Meeting (Assassination in Avalon, and Assassination Cycle in QF40.) This is a special cycle which gives a second chance to the Elims - even if they fail to get lynched at least 4 times, as long as they can identify and lynch the Tineye in their very own private lynch (though conducted on thread with everyone participating), they win the game regardless. So the Village has to stop the Elims twice, the Elims just have to win once. This is to balance the awesome power of the Tineye. Just like in QF40 and Avalon, I've added the Watchman, who functions like Percival in Avalon, or the Reform Spy's Handler in QF40. The main function of Percival in Avalon is that he knows who Merlin is. This means that Percival especially is poised to be able to give Merlin a layer of cover (because remember; if Merlin gets assassinated, then the Elims win!) A good Percival player will also be able to use Merlin's knowledge wisely to get the correct lynches in. On a Village level, this means that Villagers have two tasks: you're playing the SE game the same way you always do, but you don't want to elect/lynch the suspicious people. You want to lynch your trusts! And you also, ideally, want to be noisy and provide as much cover for Merlin and Percival as possible, because if your Elims know who those two are, they have a 50-50 shot at winning the game. Yikes! Unlike QF40, I've dropped the Embedded Operative or Lancelot, as I feel this could make things more complicated in an unsatisfactory way. (Lancelot switches sides depending on a coin flip, and this gets more complicated in some versions of Avalon; the EO could choose their side in QF40.) Instead, I'm introducing two new roles from Avalon: the Informant (also Morgana in Avalon) and the Starling (also Mordred in Avalon.) Both Morgana and Mordred generally tilt the game towards the Elims, by making things more difficult for the Village. Morgana makes things harder for Percival because he has to figure out which of the two is which. He wants to protect one of them, and he wants to follow their hints, and he definitely does not want to protect Morgana; in fact, he wants Morgana to not be elected! (Avalon has elections too.) On the other hand, Mordred also immediately nerfs Merlin because this means Merlin does not have perfect knowledge: while he can spot most of the Elim team, there will be one person Merlin does not know is an Elim. The core of the game is still the way MR38 works, so I've included a link to the game, which might show how it'd play out in action. By including the central QF40 mechanic, all my game does is to add another dimension of deduction and play (hint: if you need a final Village lynch, the Tineye and Watchman are confirmed Village...)

This is a refinement of a game I proposed years ago, when Assassin's Creed: Syndicate had just dropped a trailer. It seeks to combine the mechanics of MR38 and QF40 to result in a game that plays more like Avalon, with a healthy touch of social deduction. And it's based off the AC:S fan-made song, London Town. I intend to run this when my MR slot comes around, unless I get another idea in between. Without further ado: MR#XX: Come On Down To Irontown (aka Assassin's Creed: Elendel but Avalon.) Scadrial is transforming. Railways are being built to connect the civilised octants of Elendel with the far-flung cities and towns in the Roughs. In Elendel itself, factories are springing up all over, employing unprecedented numbers of workers. Harmony willing, Elendel will see a new era of prosperity and technological advancement. But all of this comes at a cost. Hundreds of workers find themselves increasingly crammed into small dormitories meant to take less than half their numbers. Soot and smoke from the factories linger most heavily in the industrial district, Irontown, like the legends of ash in the old days before the Final Ascension. Hours are long and the work is hard and the employers brutal. The nobles and factory owners glut themselves on boxings, and you count every last clip in the hopes of making it somewhere. Maybe it was the time Starrick’s thugs broke the legs of the last workers to demand better pay. Or maybe it was the time molten iron splashed on Tomas’s face. You still see him begging on the street on the way to your shift. They threw him out like slag. In recent days, a small group of factory workers meeting at the local establishment, The Bent Boxing, finally decide to take matters into their own hands. Come on down to Irontown, Comrade, where desperate dreams choke beneath an iron-grey sky and ash and soot are thick like the tar. Where the blood flows in the gutters and lines the pockets of the wealthy. Where the bones of the poor are buried beneath the towers that thrust into the sky, belching smog into the air and leeching poison into the waters. Come on down to Irontown, and light the flames of revolution. Oppression has to end. General Rules: Win Conditions: Roles:

Dude, I figured the jig was up when Vapor revealed the vote scan because only Elan's was missing and I'd said the Thug had the vote-doesn't-count issue. I figured it might happen but figured the vote data was important. I assume that was why Mint was unhappy about it too, because it outed Elan and meant you all weren't going to potentially waste a kill.

The Ashyn Study had been promptly shut down, and the interns dispersed. With it had gone his hope of sponsorship to the University in Silverlight, which if you thought about it, Maris should have expected all along. The PIs and the university personnel covered up for themselves and stuck up for each other: the unpaid interns were hung and left out to dry. At least they weren't being made to pay their medical bills. He heard some other interns were suing, but Maris wasn't going to stick around for it. He was done with Silverlight, for the moment. He was no closer He wanted to be on some other world, exploring, or learning something else. He didn't want to be stuck at Silverlight, waiting for the scraps they were willing to throw at him. Better Kadrim's watchmaking workshop than that. He had an article published in the Journal of Applied Realmatics, and a working knowledge of Realmatic theory. They'd healed him of the Ashyn diseases, and while the Ashyn interdiction didn't concern him, Maris rather thought he wasn't interested in revisiting the experience. If he wanted to get a disease, there were better and more interesting ways to catch one back home, involving delectable amounts of debauchery, the sort you'd need to bribe an Obligator to forget about. Roshar, then? Or Sel? He flipped the clip, and frowned down at it. It had wedged between the battered wooden table and the peeling wall and so had come down on edge. The Lord Ruler's profile glared sternly at him. No, he wasn't going back to Scadrial. Not quite yet. For a moment - he shaded his eyes with his hand - he thought he saw a ball of light, flickering across the small, bare room, as though it were a firefly. Folly, that. Maris scooped up his clip and slipped it back into his jacket pocket. He didn't have to decide where he was going, just right now. He knew he was leaving, and that was a start. After all, it was the journey that mattered, and not the destination. -finis?

Alles klar Yes, I was startled at how much people were willing to say when I wasn't even interested in phishing for info, just suspicions.

I'm going to have this framed. Approval of the kasyana! Thank you, Dark bro! Also, since I have just read the dead doc: yep- It me But honestly, I'm glad the game is over. I still have a tendency to get drawn in by puzzle-solving/a sense of obligation more than I should, and I was also really dead lucky our case loads in the past two days have been light so I could look at the cycle. Fingers crossed things will continue to go well for us, since less work for me also means fewer active cases detected which is hopefully a good thing

Yeah, that makes sense. Good job though, you were more creative than me. I was just literally doing things and hoping you would get I was phishing/smiting Araris (last minute Mat), etcetera I don't really know how I expected you to get it, I'm sorry for dropping the ball, Dark bro

I actually did check for that. The issue was I couldn't locate a Monday 0219hrs message at all IDK if it's a timezone thing, or if I missed something. I spent some time trawling our PM but finally gave up Good to know I didn't totally misinterpret you though! Edit: OH. D'OH. @TJ Shade sorry I figured out the problem - I didn't look far back enough, sorry

No, dude, I totally did not figure that out I thought it might have been to me but I misinterpreted it. I considered sending you a message via our pre-arranged code but realised I had no good way of explaining, "No, I'm not actually planning on scanning Araris, I'm planning on neutralising him." I greatly enjoyed Village conspiring with you too - thanks for being a Villager Oh, dude, and the Illwei thing? I phished Illwei as well, hoping to test if he was a Villager or otherwise, which is why I was like "yeah maybe lynch Illwei if weird stuff goes down" in the PM, which in retrospect was probably not the most helpful thing to say. Storms, I'm glad both you and @Gears are Villagers. @Elkanah and @The_God_King: Thanks for addressing all the panicking questions - getting PAFOed was entertaining , and to Elk, thanks for the wonderful powerpoint and the RP Really enjoyed it. For context, I was sending my orders in the form of academic RPs because I was bored. Hence: All in all, thanks for running the game I had fun!

Well played to the Elims! And to @TJ Shade especially given we were PMing from D2: wir denken perfekt zusammen. Glaub nie 'was anderes Sorry to @Ashbringer — condemning you was the most intricate bait post I ever wrote because I had to make it sound authentic. I was down for a Mat lynch (secondarily Lahilt) and TJ had actually convinced me. My plan was to switch back to Matrim at 0959hrs. The problem for me was that the Straw lynch were not as powerfully informational, given the almost immediate dogpile. I was decently convinced Mat was evil. (Thanks TJ!) His tone didn't help matters because it sounded more defensive Elim. But my thought was that we couldn't afford another low info lynch with poor discussion. So I decided to create a post, try to make it sound authentic, and hold it out as bait and see who bit and who swapped lynches. Manipulation and late changes was the point of my play so we could have more info to analyse during the Night. I felt Ash wasn't saying much lately too, and thought lighting a fire under him might be interesting so there you go Ash, bait. I also felt I was probably one of a narrow set of players who could actually get away with doing that, so >> Basically my attitude was that Mat or Lahilt had to die, but I was worried about any potential teammates lurking in the wings. Good in the short term, bad in the long term. Hoped that responses to the bait would be more informative. Of course, without PMs, I couldn't exactly tell TJ I was phishing so I guess I frustrated him quite a bit by voting everyone except Mat Then the scan claim went nicely with my plans so I was grateful @Araris Valerian No problem. We've differed in our approach to the game enough that I wasn't going to lynch you just because we had a different strategy again. @The_God_King Wait what did I solve via PMs :S

I could maybe see the Sart thing as checking for a bus but zero reason to go Lotus. Agreed.

Bg = background. Lahilt. Matrim. @TJ Shade You win, too much suspicion tripped.

Wait. You scanned Lotus N4? Why would you do that?

Players this cycle apparently:

@Matrim's Dice Who did you scan last night / previous cycles /Days?

Hard to edit on mobile so I may have borked something. I actually found you more aggressive or less hedgy in QF46, which is why your subsequent play this has stood out to me. To be fair, you died D2 there. I do accept that you might have happened to have been a Villager who pitched Straw the ball he needed. However, I also think it was worth putting pressure on more than just the MatWeiRis triad in discussion. If not you, then to see where Elims vote, what trains they jump on, and what else they do. Not sure why you ascribe to me the view that Lahilt is likely Village though. I don't think there's enough info to tell, because there was no reason for the Elim team to crap bricks over his potentially being tied. Ultimately I'm not especially invested in Mat over Lahilt or vice bersa: as long as one of my late tier suspects gets lynched. And: Ash. Lahilt. Bottom line with my late response to Lahilt's earlier comments: I think it's a IKYK thing, so I'm interested in hearing what the others think.

If Mint is telling the truth, then the implication seems to be that Mint was involved in the D1 vanishing vote, since she wasn't around for D2. (But then we're back to the problem of trying to postulate either a new Surge that affects votes or trying to figure out what happened to the effects of Abrasion and Tension.) But I also have a D2 scan that specifically shows Vapor's vote vanishing on D2 alongside Illwei's. We know Lotus Soothed Illwei with Tension and her vote happened to smack back in place. But then we also have Devotary's vote: one possibility is Vapor using Abrasion to move Devotary's vote onto Pyro. Or: again, I've been PAFOed on this, but Dev using Abrasion on herself or some more complex but V-E manip interaction. Here's the thing though. We've theorised that the manip was Elim previously but I am actually not sure anymore. Since we now know Pyro and Lotus are both Village, it's worth revisiting the possibilities because Devotary was lurking late on the lynch but chose not to visibly intervene. I'm working from Dev's vote count, which expresses uncertainty of whether Illwei would put a late double vote: A quick recap of those events: rollover occurs at 1000hrs for me. At 0947hrs, Striker votes on Lahilt, bringing Lahilt to 2 votes. At the same time, he ninjas Ash, who declines to change his vote, citing not enough time to make a reasoned vote. At 0958hrs, Devotary posts the vote count I've cited above, and suggests that Pyro and Lotus (the lead candidates) are deviating from normal Village, and that she wants to see if Illwei will double the vote. Notice that neither Straw nor Devotary participated in this lynch. If there was an Elim candidate, I think it's safe to say (gauging from D3 Devotary lynch) that they were not in much danger. This is especially important because as someone with Cohesion, Straw might have had a hidden vote on D2, in which case, his declining to use it is especially interesting, since Straw and Devotary could do some lynch outcome swinging of their own. There were several possible outcomes: first, (assuming that Illwei is Village and Devotary thus did not know how he would act), Illwei could double-vote (he indicated at 0959hrs that he would not, but that's too close to the lynch), turning the known lynch into Lotus (4) : Pyro (3) : Lahilt (2/3) [irrelevant what I do here], second, Illwei could abstain from double-voting, and I could double-vote, turning the known lynch into a three-way tie: Lotus (3) : Pyro (3) : Lahilt (3). I don't think they knew that Lotus had Tension, since Lotus was a Villager. Three: assume that Illwei was an Elim. Devotary knew he would not make the double-vote, likely because their team was indifferent between Lotus and Pyro. (What about the Lahilt lynch, though?) The outcomes fracture even further if we consider whether or not the movement behind the Vapor Vanish D2 was known to the Elims, and whether or not the movement of Devotary's vote was known as well. In fact, it strikes me that we were not too far as well from a four-way tie, though the Elims may not have been aware of that if they lacked Tension. (If Lahilt is an Elim, they would have considered this.) Specifically: consider a case in which Illwei didn't double-vote, and I double-voted, and RNGesus hated a Tension user. We get: Lotus-Pyro-Lahilt-Mint, all tied at 3 votes each. But this requires so much chance I'm certain it didn't matter to anyone's calculations. So it's okay to focus on just Elim behaviour surrounding Lotus-Pyro-Lahilt. Since we know there are only two possibilities for Lahilt, this simplifies analysis drastically: A) V-V-V B.) V-V-E So, what's the score? It boils down to my conclusion that the lack of overt concern from the Elims means that we should expect to find at least some of them on the sidelines. (Again, I don't rule out - hence my suspicion of Mat - that at least one of them was on a major vote train.) I'm going to rehash these groups again for easy reference: I think it's telling that Straw and Devotary both did not participate in the D2 lynch, and that they later participated in Lotus suspicions. With Mat, it's harder to tell, IMO. I think Mat could be (in the parlance of influence ops) a useful rulo - it is possible that seeing that Mat bang on about Lotus gave them the idea that Mat would make a decent scapegoat, because he could be trusted to pursue a Lotus lynch, given he expressed suspicion of Lotus since D1. Of course, it's also possible that Mat happened to express suspicion of Lotus D1 as an Elim, and therefore decided to continue to pursue it given the set-up. But my view is that Elims who - as a team - seem to favour low profile play do not generally want to create suspicions out of nowhere. They want something useful rulos can jump on. As such, I expect there to be at least a Villager or two on the D2 Lotus train. Surprisingly, @Matrim's Dice, this does mean you are no longer my leading suspicion, though you are still a suspicion. I said I'd say more on it later. Gears commented on Lotus and Illwei N2, but none of it was particularly aggressive or an expression of suspicion. As such, it's interesting to me that Ash brought the issue up as a factor behind Gears's kill - almost as though he was setting/prepping the ground for a focus on Lotus without seeming too invested in it. It gets more interesting because: and Ash veers off his trust of Devotary and his awareness that Gears' death might be to get a lynch [note that he says mislynch] on Illwei or Lotus and says he wants to vote Lotus. And that happens...really quickly, and Ash conveniently hangs back after Illwei and Mat pile onto Lotus. And this after he put a vote on Straw. Note that Straw replies soon after with a list of reads, to which Ash remarks: Straw disowns the Gears-Illwei connection and brings up the confirmed good slogan again. (Alert! Kas's Law violated!) It's interesting to me he didn't engage with Ash's comment about Lotus at all, and just says that he can't see an Elim team trying it. Which may be, but we've also seen this Elim team make a concerted effort to go after Lotus, after all! Straw also has a light Elim read on Illwei, FWIW. Ash seems to think he has a very similar read list. Anyone who is interested is free to ISO Ash. I note that D2 he mentions not changing his vote because he doesn't have enough to place a reasoned vote. It's not necessarily an Elim thing, but it's another thing that builds into a player that is being especially, very careful and almost hedging in a way that ends up in a position that shifts very quickly but never strays into anything potentially dangerous, preferring to let others tank the heat for actions Ash claims he supports. I'm suspicious of that, so Ash gets my vote. Quiet day in contact tracing land today (thank you gods of health and fortune), so I guess I was bored enough to comb through something that caught my attention >> P.S. For those who want vote pattern analysis, I still can't do it, but this is for you - a colour-coded map of the lynches so far, with confirmed Elims in red, and suspected Villagers in blue, and confirmed Villagers in green: P.P.S. Straw actually says this N2: He claims it's a typo, which it could very well be, but I'm wondering if this was actually a slip. If it was a slip, we might have a vote manipulator on the Elim team as well, hence the knowledge that there would/might be one less vote on Pyro. This makes me look again at Lahilt - not impossible he tried using Tension to Soothe a vote on himself, just in case, or even on Vapor and the assumption was that the vote wouldn't ricochet back to Pyro...except it did. Just a thought. Edit: Fixed borked formatting.

Then that's interesting, because since pretty much everyone has been clocked as having their vote count at least once, we have exactly one player who claims to have a condition-ability that prevents them from voting. Not that this is itself alignment indicative, since we've also only seen Mist's kill ability appear exactly once.

It's a theory. Basically, remember D1/D2? Votes Vapor was on had one vote missing. The commonality was Vapor. At first, the theory was that it was some kind of vote manipulation, but the fact was that it seemed to reliably track Vapor, and if we postulate Vapor had some kind of vote manip instead and was using it, then where did the extra/moved vote go? Then after that, someone told me that there actually is an condition-ability that means your vote doesn't count. (I...don't know if there is a counterbalance as PMs shut down soon after.) That person could be lying, of course. The theory now is that this is what happened to Vapor D1/D2. But if you look at Vapor's D3 scan and my D4 scan, her vote is very much present. So my suspicion is that someone healed Vapor C2/D3, depending on OOA.

Where does Lotus being healed come from? [Edited to add: Lotus is noted as having Tension in the write-up. That seems to me to indicate she did not get healed.] Edit: @Vapor d'oh sorry I forgot to follow and missed your post. All clear then: you definitely got healed C2, latest D3. [Edited to add: Thank you! ]

Right, I missed a point. Without D3 Devotary lynch data, the best I can make of the Vanishing Vapor Vanish, based off what Thug #1 said, might be because of Progression flying around. As far as I can tell, if we assume Vapor Vanish was still functioning, this vote tally is not accurate. No Cohesion-user double-voted at all. Which means we should expect 13 votes but are seeing 12 instead: GM Write-Up Votes from D3: The best explanation, IMO, is that the Vapor Vanish was removed. (Alternative explanation: Thug #1 was healed and said nothing. But I don't like this explanation because it requires us to postulate a double heal when the next Day...) Vote Scan from D4: We have exactly 11 votes listed on Straw. It can't be another double-voter, I'd have seen them otherwise. It's either Vapor was healed, or there was some kind of vote manip able to make Vapor's vote count, but that's an OOA question again ( @Elkanah and @The_God_King, I assume it's a PAFO as to whether an Abrasion or Tension user could make a nullified vote count as a vote?) - not to mention we then have to account for what happened to the Abrasion/Tension vote, which brings us back into further confusion and the virtual particle problem. No. I think the simplest answer is that someone healed Vapor N2. (Or D3, I suppose, depending on OOA.) @Araris Valerian, was this you? [@GMs: If a Progression user heals Cohesion during the Day, for instance, does the double vote still appear on the lynch, assuming the player with Cohesion had used it?]

#1. Here's the vote scan from the D4 Straw vote: Double-Voter #3 accounts for our extra vote. I've censored their name to keep from outing them unnecessarily. What's more interesting is that Vapor is listed among the voters. What happened to the Vapor Vanish? #2. Dude. I'll be honest and say this: first, I'm sorry if you really are a Villager. That's just where my suspicions are currently situated. Second, I also have to say that you sound like you think you are really backed into a corner right now. I'm leaning Elim on the amount of defensiveness I'm picking up on, but I could also see that being a frustrated Villager. I can't speak for TJ, but this entire game is literally a study in how I'm not unpersuadable. I specifically went from an 'Araris delenda est' position on D4 to "Yeah, no, I think he's fishy but I also think Araris might be set up" on N4. It would be strange for Elims suddenly hop on this, as you claim they will. If you are in fact a Villager, anyone sheeping onto you will be scrutinised, especially in light of their in-game behaviour. Anyway. Matrim for now. Illwei.

Fair enough, and good catches. As I said, whether or not Ash's bluff was really a bluff, I think the reasoning that it identifies those willing to switch votes - or looking for a reason to switch votes - is fairly decent. Lahilt immediately stands out as being in that group. He also shows up in the peripheral profile and the late bandwagoners group for both lynches, which could be a sign of an Eliminator taking the lynch temperature before reluctantly joining in. What I'm most suspicious of, however, is Lahilt suddenly appearing late in D4 to vote Straw: All of a sudden, when the thread begins to consider Araris suspicious, and after complaints that he's not been contributing or identified suspicions, Lahilt finds Araris...very suspicious. And "the power to heal is dangerous for an Elim" (paraphrased) - but that statement is just odd in so many ways. It's dangerous for an Elim, but what does that have to do with Araris being an Elim? Is it supposed to raise the chances of Araris being an Elim? Is it supposed to imply we should lynch Araris on the off-chance he's an Elim as the power is too dangerous for a potential Elim? On the other hand, removing a lot of village vote manipulation. Why would that give Elims a huge advantage? Village vote manipulation is not inherently beneficial to the Village because it tends to provide Elim vote manipulation a lot of smokescreen to operate in. This is precisely why I've emphasised transparency/accountability when I had Cohesion. Now, it's true that vote manip grants us more lynch firepower, but again - that's not exactly the same as saying that without vote manipulation, the Elims automatically have a huge advantage over us. You know what could be very dangerous for an Elim? Role-blocking. A secondary kill. Etcetera. IDK. I read this as opportunistic bandwagoning, which granted, could be sheeping (see: Vapor in QF46) but coupled with the points you make, just doesn't sit well with me. And unlike Vapor, Lahilt doesn't have a history of sheeping - at least not from my MR43 memories. As I said last night, Illwei, Matrim, and Lahilt are my top-tier suspects, with Matrim being the strongest of them. Araris and Mint are on the lower suspicion tier, and I'll admit part of the reason I'm more bearish on my Araris read now is due to issues with making sense of his D2 Illwei-Mint reasoning, and especially Lahilt's sudden move into the ranks of those suspicious of Araris.

@TJ Shade Dude, you may wanna spoiler that in case someone reads on mobile data. I just got off work so a lot of things are fragmentary at the moment as I'm tired. And yes, it's a Sunday, I know. I am sad and life is hard. I'll try to do something better later. I haven't yet received my scan results but have nudged the GMs in order to know if I'm roleblocked or otherwise. @Elkanah, @The_God_King (I know you can't confirm or deny in thread, but just flagging my PM ) Matrim's Dice. The conclusion of my thoughts from last Night, and agreed with TJ's reasoning on Straw's reads. I like how y'all taking up that one thread from a suspect TJ and I share now But heck - I'm paranoid that I'm still alive: paranoid it means my suspicions are all completely off base I mean, ngl, more or less agreed. Lotus was very trusted because of Straw, and she could target scan. My utility to the Village more or less was reduced when PMs shut, and vote scanning won't be an issue if there's no one left on the Elim team to pull out vote shenanigans (not sure how likely this is - 50-50?), or at least if they're not planning on doing that anymore. Moreover, I'm not exactly able to put my head 100% in the game so y'all keep getting low-quality reads from me. It's not exactly strange and it still fits the profile Araris mentioned: threats/almost confirmed Good Villagers if necessary, and pick targets with minimal kill information otherwise. @TJ Shade What about Lahilt on D2? Working with Devotary?