Kasimir

Then we have a problem, because Steel is dead and Village, bro. I've not been an Elim in six years - seven maybe, I can't be bothered to check when MR3 was. LG20 doesn't count because I had to step out due to having surgery and didn't even get to C3. I don't know what my own Elim profile is anymore, so I'm surprised that anyone on this forum who isn't Wyrm feels confident predicting what Evil Kas will do. That being said, if my impulses are any judge, I'm very much a control and threat kill player. And Archer has called me out in a different game on the fact I don't play risky - overly so. The fact Drake or Archer or Araris aren't dead and Steel was is already too spicy from my point-of-view Storms, the fact the Elim team in AG7 was comfortable with a 50-50 chance their teammate died is already too risky for my blood. Edited to add 2: Just as a reminder, you're dealing with the guy who roleclaimed Beedle D1 rather than deal with a 50% chance of being lynched if Pyro self-presed. That's the sort of risk tolerance I have in general. Mat, yes. It's the Steel that doesn't fit with your profile, IMO. And you were active enough as a QF54 Elim that I can't see you going 'welp' and letting your teammates decide in a pool that presumably included me, Drake, and Araris. Basically if you're Elim, and that's the way the kill pool worked out, it'd have to be you, Araris, and Drake, I almost think. Maybe not Araris - I think your control doctrine would be fine excluding him. But then that doesn't make sense to me because this game is so low-activity you (in this hypothetical team) might as well have just NKed me or Araris and grabbed full thread control. I also think I'd be a better control kill choice than Araris because Araris's Elim streak tends to get him sused in terms of rallying the Village. Taking out a potential Village rally point would be down your alley. Of course, recent games may have dropped me on the threat radar, but we're talking the context of this game. So let me get this right. C1 - You started with the One of Swords and Two of Swords. You traded in the Two of Swords for the Two of Pens, and used the One of Swords on me. C2 - You now have Two of Guards, Two of Pens and One of Spears. You didn't use Two of Pens, but you used Two of Guards to protect Archer. You may or may not have used One of Spears to cheat. Interesting lie, Drake. Because I used the Two of Swords on you last cycle, and based on the card OoA, Two of Swords comes last, meaning I should see all the cards you used before any cards were gained. Trading in Two of Pens for cheating instead of One of Spears is unlikely move for a player, Village or Elim. The only card you had was One of Spears. Edited to add 3: This means I'm not buying the story of trying to hammer Araris or trying to protect Archer. You could only do one, and you claimed to have used One of Spears to cheat. Moreover, you don't actually have the Two of Pens anymore. Something's not right here. Edited to add: @Archer, I'm interested that you said during C2 that my being the tiebreaker was a "Village problem." Elim slip there?

Come to think of it, Mat IMO is a classic control kill. Steel is not. So mixed prospects. Archer's theory of unlikely to be protected makes sense but also—Striker, Drake, and Fabien were up for the lynch at various points, even collectively. Which means: <TUO, Archer, Kas, Araris, and Steel> as the effective pool. Low info kill would have to be Steel or TUO, Steel more than TUO. Paradoxically gives me more confidence in Village Archer though I'm sure he'll change his Elim strategic doctrine at some point. I'm still curious why Archer and Araris didn't get targeted though. Even if the Elims are hiding among the low activity players, low activity players generally can't do much about it.

I'm curious if it's prima facie impossible for there to be a two Elim team without the GC. Largely because I should in theory have the info needed to rule out that possibility but am considering an oddball Lucky pair or something of that sort. I'm not going to bother with the usual disclaimers. I am Village and if your predicted scenario of a NK on me is right, you'll be able to go back to this using info from my flip so hopefully I won't have died in vain. I'm going to work towards that at the moment. Fun quote about a message to posterity from Tenet comes to mind. Paranoia points me towards some Drake-Archer Elim variant: thus too risky to kill another vocal player, so Steel. I doubt that though. If it's Archer-Drake, with or without someone else, they already control the thread anyway. A control kill would immediately cut off resistance. So I'm going to stick with my peripheral pool. Higher credence on Village Archer than Village Drake. My issue is I can't see an Elim Ash being this completely inactive, though he's apparently resurrecting now. If I really had to pick someone to smite of the Ash-Araris-Fabien pool, I guess I would go with Araris, but I'm not sure I'm comfortable with that, too. I also can't see Evil Araris just leaving so many active players alive. But maybe I need more sleep. The cycle is young so I'm not about to move my vote just yet.

O7 Shield of the Lynch indeed. Sorry, Striker. Day One: Extremely high credence in the side-train hypothesis for me at this juncture. Day Two: Fabien and Ash are non-voting. I don't believe Ash has ever voted. I'll do a Fabien activity check again later. Steel is an interesting choice for a kill if you theorise the Elims are hiding among the peripherals, because this means that they're cutting down the peripheral pool, though this game is short enough we can likely expect they don't expect to be found. In light of this information, the main D1 trains look especially Village-driven. Strictly for the same of culling a pool, without taking into account reads: Day One Cull: Non-voters: <Steel, TUO, Ash> We now know Steel was Village, and I lean Village on TUO. Day Two Cull: What's interesting D2 is that at one point, Striker tried to go for a three-way tie: This does make Steel a very interesting kill, as both players who voted on Drake are dead. I broke the tie, and Drake cemented it. No sign of card activity that I can make out. Drake mentioned being suspicious of Striker, as did I, so at least that much is on the level. Archer was against the idea of a tie. Non-voters this cycle: <Fabien, Ash> Given my current light Village Archer and TUO credences, this narrows my pool to <Drake, Araris, Fabien, Ash.> I'd like to hear more from Ash in the time being. Edited to add: Woes of longposts - everyone and their chull ninjas you...

I've expressed my views on the matter, yeah. But you're consolidating on your Village read.

MTE

[OOC: Thanks for the catch. So: Scenario A: We started 8/3 and were down to 6/3 today. A mislynch takes us to 4/3, minimally, assuming two deaths. An extra death doesn't make too much of a difference as we could be on 3/3. But we can't afford anymore horseplay to create additional ties. Four bad deaths (less likely, in my view, but not impossible) immediately loses us the game at 2/3. Scenario B: We started 9/2 and were down to 7/2 today. (Thanks for the shout, Araris!) A mislynch takes us to 5/2, minimally, assuming two deaths. We do get an extra cycle in this scenario: 5/2 to 3/2, if there's always a lynch and a NK each cycle. Then we are at lylo. My difficulty is working out which scenario we're in. In theory, I have one more piece of information that you all don't, and the Elims also have that same piece of information. Given that all the two-Elim team guesses I've seen involve an Evil GC, I'm sort of hard-pressed to think of how an Evil team of two would function otherwise. It's just an odd position where a three-man team seems too strong (throws us in lylo next cycle, if not this cycle, if people go kayana with the horseplay), or - the only possibility which people have brought up for a two-man team isn't possible in my view, and the other variants just seem too weak for the Elims. Sigh. A certain player commented I play not to lose, which is...fair as an assessment, I suppose. I wish I were less tired as I just got off more or less back-to-back a week of OTing but we make do with what we have. I can't think this through in my head so the thread is just going to have to deal with my thinking aloud, RIP y'all. This is agnostic as to which of them is Village and which is Elim. I'm just doing the pathwalking. Possibility #1: Fabien/Striker/Drake = V/V/V Possibility #2: Fabien/Striker/Drake = V/V/E Possibility #3: Fabien/Striker/Drake = V/E/E Possibility #4: Fabien/Striker/Drake = E/E/E To be fair, the more Elims there are in the pool, the better for us. But part of the issue with reasoning too powerfully from this tie is that I've been lurking in this thread and I've just seen...myself, Araris, Eiwlil, Lotus, and Striker, who's lurking right now. So it's possible the Elims simply didn't even see this appear. I'm going to go Fabien and Striker to break the tie and consolidate the train on my main sus. I was hoping that Fabien's teammates, if any, might be baited into showing up, since you can't actually redirect a vote from another player. The last Fabien logged into the Shard was 0348hrs yesterday, the same as when they posted in the thread. It could be an entire Elim team of inactivity (active enough to submit the kill though), but I'm not about to reduce our count this way - even if they're Elim, we can deal with them later. If they're not logging in, they're not submitting kills, and I'm not certain enough on Fabien to roll the dice this way, and especially not when a player I suspect is chill with doing this. Guess that player was right about me, huh. I really don't like risk and really play to not lose

RIP, this teaches me to c/p blindly without checking Wow, that was broken really fast. Current state of reads: LIGHT VILLAGE WITH SOY SAUCE: VILLAGE MEHBE NULL BUDGET EVIL GO VILE OR GO HOME Hmm. I'm obviously going to go for someone low in my lists. I'm tempted to tie Fabien and Striker, honestly. I'm just not sure how helpful / wise that would be. Edited to add: Drake Fabien.

Hmm. Unlike certain embarrassing circumstances of which we shall not speak (smh Eiwlil don't you even), I expect to get on a little later and not be playing Hades. In light of that: Drake. Edited to add: This gives us: Perfectly balanced, as all things should be.

Mrw I read the first few words: @Araris Valerian — Thanks for the catch. Why are you considering an Archer train? @StrikerEZ — Why is Drake your secondary? I'm going to come back later and finalise my vote as I do up a basic reads list. I'm in a bit too much pain to focus right now and my painkillers aren't working. I should have enough time but I don't want to expel Archer so here we go.

[OOC: Point of order, according to the timestamp, I swapped at 2348hrs, and Lotus closed the cycle at 0002hrs, meaning that there was a fourteen minute window. I think the simplest explanation is best in this scenario though so unless there's further evidence, I'd go with forgetting to self-pres as well.] [OOC: Okay, but what's the point of creating ties then? Literally everyone in this game talks about creating ties as if it's great. It kind of is. And it kind of isn't. If no one is going to analyse the ties/voting movements and we're back to 'TUO retracted fast when under pressure' - which to be fair, I agree with, it is a datapoint to keep in mind - then you and everyone else who's on the 'I love ties they look great' train are basically into making ties for the sake of making ties rather than for the purpose of generating data on players' priorities for analysis. And that's kind of Elim, because it's low effort, might sneak in a kill, but also not really needing to do anything.] Things that stand out to me from the voting movements: TUO point so noted. I vote on Drake to open things up, and TUO immediately jumps on. Mat points out that TUO hasn't budged, and TUO hops back off and admits that they have no reads, no suspects, no trusts. I do read it as being a little opportunistic, since there's pretty much anyone else TUO could poke at that point in time. So few had logged in. @The Unknown Order - you now have a cycle to work from. What are your thoughts at this point in time? Araris's vote on Ashbringer ended up being stable throughout several points in which Ash was in a tie. Noted what Fabien said; all the same, Araris's, Fabien's, Drake's, and Archer's votes appear reasonably stable. Archer came on towards the end of the cycle and didn't shift things, so presumably, he too, was happy with where things were heading. Sigh. I hate doing this but, alright, let's pathwalk. On the assumption Elan/TUO is V/V: Possible light Elim on Striker or Archer, but no more than one of them. Of the two, voting patterns point me to Archer as the more likely of the two, but based off posts, I'd put a bit more credence in Striker being Elim at this stage. In that scenario, I wouldn't expect the Elims to want to get involved with the lynch, and we know now that the TUO train was very heavily Village anyway. My usual place to look for Elims are the peripherals: stable voters, side-trains, and in this case, non-voters. Our peripherals are largely <Fabien, Drake, Araris.> Steel and Ash don't vote, which is frustrating in terms of trying to get reads off them, but also convenient. So noted Archer's point on Steel - I'd read it as Steel being chaos demon, but I think Archer raises a fair point. On the assumption Elan/TUO is V/E: Archer didn't pull his vote, despite being on. I think in this scenario, Striker would not be Elim, but weakly so. Striker has no reason to try to turn a TUO train into a lead train - why force TUO to burn/squander his lynch-save card for no good reason? My read would be that the Elims either did not get on to notice the problem with TUO, or felt confident that TUO could self-protect. (That being said, that's...an interesting attitude with regard to card-spending and I'm reminded of Drake's view on cards, but this is a profiling point rather than a damning one and I'm pretty sure Araris and Archer are two players who'd be down for something like that too.) Just gonna point out here that Araris does come off a bit more suspicious in my eyes in this scenario for suggesting I'm teammates with TUO: if so, I have literally no reason to do a TUO move and then shift to Elan because that sort of drek looks way more suspicious. I'd be better off going Elan from the start rather than jumping onto TUO for such a short period of time. That statement just pinged my gut in the 'is this an Elim trying to set up someone with their teammate' light. I'd stick with my profile, honestly. 3-2 is a significant amount of risk given volatility and the fact ties kill, and vote manip cards so I guess the Elims didn't play LG79 are fairly risk-friendly in this scenario. I'd still look in the off-trains. Archer swaps off Ash to Elan, and is in fact the starter of the Elan train. Drake likes some unorthodoxy so this is purely a profiling point, ditto for Araris. Ultimately, the scenario resolves more or less similarly, but with a better read of Striker. I do have a light credence in Village TUO though, because I don't think Elim teams necessarily want to burn that card - it'd require someone else to put in the NK and a lynch-saving card could be very useful for them as player numbers dwindle. Hey Archer. I don't believe I've yet gone into paranoia about you this game. I notice you were chill with how things were going on the Elan train near the end. Care to say more?

[OOC: Given you have to date discussed no other players and have not attempted at any point whatsoever to back your suspicions up by placing them under lynch pressure, and have announced you will continue to keep voting for me until I get successfully tied/lynched due to your strategic plans, and that your vote on me pre-dated talk of your suspicions, I'm afraid I have to file your comments as empty words, which could be true or could just be said to appear active and participating in the game.] [OOC: My view of Shardblades actually is more or less the same as Wyrm's. Which is less of a when and more of a how - secondary lynch, with a side of potentially cleaning out people you worry are lurker Elims, since this game allows lurking. Or removing me if you really want to LAFO me without having to waste two lynches on it and potentially open to vote manip. I don't think the when especially matters: I would be less gung ho about it as the numbers wane and we get closer to lylo, but in a smaller player size game like this, this is likely to be closer than we think anyway. Interesting question/thought on RBs, now you mention the question. @Lotus, since Elim kills take up the card action slot, can they be card-blocked? 'Cause if that's a yes, obviously you have two options. I feel like counter-card play will be possible only with more intel, or possibly to stop vote manip, but one thing easy and helpful for an uninformed Village card-blocker to do is to literally try to card-block the NK. Kill protects - same IMO. Lurcher's decision, usual advice of going for your trusts, but I wouldn't go for anyone who's close to the top of the lynch because obviously, that's where the NK won't go. (To be fair, 'trusts' and 'top of the lynch' usually do not overlap all that much.) There's a balance as you don't want to blow your cards away for no good reason, but at the same time, I feel that the ability to discover what cards another player has and card-block them means that you can be countered as well if the Elims know what cards you have. Elims have to spend the card action slot on the NK though so there may be a way to look at this mechanically, but certainly not at this early stage. Given you'd go for your trusts, don't blow it too early because it's hard to develop trusts this early in the game without a voting record. But that's all bog-standard stuff I think.] Drake, Striker, want to hear what you think. @StrikerEZ, @Ashbringer, @Steeldancer (surely Picard has ended?), hello. Edited to add: Since we're guessing/tracking: 8/3 or 10/2, down to 6/3 or 8/2. In general, my view is that cards should be used, just be more judicious about the valuable ones. We get more cards, or have a chance to, and look at those numbers. I don't feel there's a distinctive midgame to save the cards for. If we assume just two gone this cycle, which is standard, we'll be on 4/3 (lylo!) or 6/2 (midgame feel, I think.) So come to think of it, maybe a two-man team is more likely. IDK. Elims will have to spend one card slot on the NK, so I expect they'll have a bigger bottleneck cards cannot be passed/transferred, and also the card kill slot. That's where the mechanical potential exists but at this stage, hard to prove IMO though let's see: One of Pens, Two of Pens, One of Swords, Two of Swords are a bit more provable IMO, though defeasibly as they could imply players in cahoots with each other, and if you're on the lynch wagon, self-presing isn't really exculpatory, but might be more helpful if and when we get down to one Elim and a NK still happens. I guess Shardblade and the Guard cards sort go there but it's going to be a "No counterclaim" sort of case again.

[OOC: Nope. This is me flat-out stating what would be a red flag to me. A red flag would be if you choose to continue doing this over and over again. You have stated before in the first cycle and this one that you aim to continue to try to get me lynched as you feel my extra life is counterproductive to the Village, and you're doing this on the off-chance I'm Evil. I have pointed out that a Village Shardblade could easily take me out. To me, the only logical way to read this is as a declaration of intent to keep on voting for me if and until you succeed. If and when your vote succeeds, then that's irrelevant to me. The only scenario I'm concerned about is where you don't succeed, because other players are actually trying to find Elims and then you are allowed to skate by in the background. To me, that's a good way of avoiding having to actually sus players and back that suspicion with votes. Do you have no suspicions, [Fabien.] Drake? Do you have no interest in finding Elims? Because Elims already know what the answer is, and low vote diversity and declared intention to only focus on me? Sure sounds like a red flag to me.] [OOC: Am I? Now you're miscontruing my argument. Even if it is a one person train, it is an excuse, is it not? "Oh, I'm going to keep voting Kas for strategic reasons." Conveniently allowing you to stay off any main trains. I'm not even acting as if it has every chance of succeeding in practice - whether it can succeed or not is irrelevant to my argument. My argument only relies that you do exactly what you have declared: that you will keep on voting for me for as long as it takes for me to get lynched once because my role benefits the Elims more than it does the Village. That choice of yours leads to a strategy that allows an Elim an easy place to hide. That's suspicious.] [OOC: Then I'm just going to disagree. If you think that's a shoddy vote, that's your problem. I think a player's recent track record of activity is pretty damned important if you're interested in not having another low activity game. Bulldrek. LG78 and QF54 look better for Steel, but I also don't want to immediately grinch someone who is GMing another game but will presumably soon be freed up. I also mentioned I was fine with an Ashbringer lynch and did go to Ashbringer at some point so I was not clearly set on TUO.] Edited to add: Know what a vote that focuses on me - your declared intention - and doesn't go on anyone else is? It's a low information vote that doesn't help find Elims and doesn't help anyone read you. That's suspicious, and I'm not going to keep pulling off at this point. I'll put my vote where my mouth is and go for you.

[OOC: They could succeed. If you are a Villager, you'd simply cost the Village more than my extra lynch life would by refusing to vote on or focus on anyone else. Voting shows the game where your priorities are, and suspicions unbacked by votes do not exert pressure. In this case, you would be showing that you prioritise removing an extra life from me - when Village or Elims could just as easily shardblade me or NK me - more than you value eliciting reactions from other players and actually pursuing your suspicions, or developing your suspicions. That's Elim behaviour to me. Villagers want to solve the game, as as you said - this is likely to be a short game one way or another.] [OOC: If I truly believed you were an Elim, I'd vote for you flat out, and I might very well go so going forwards. I'm pointing out that one hallmark of Elim behaviour is the reluctance to solve the game, and taking refuge in easy trains. Telling the game you have strategic reasons for going after me allows you to conveniently avoid having to vote for anyone else or having to actually place lynch pressure on anyone else, side-stepping attention. That's a good place for an Elim to hide, and if you persistently do this, I'm afraid that's a red flag in my eyes.] [OOC: If you don't vote off a track record, what do you vote off? What's your basis for saying they're not currently playing into that track record? Track records are good: they give us ways of projecting from past data to the present. In fact, the claim they're not currently playing into it is dubious because one could say the same of Ash. If so, I'm interested to hear who you think has the worst inactivity track record.]

[OOC: I actually prefer keeping my ability because if you are an Elim, then you can't continue to hide behind lazy and persistent votes for me that being obvious So I'm content with the results of the cycle. I do think those would be lazy because it's a convenient train to stash on, claim this analysis, and then refuse to engage further, so forcing you to make a choice between engaging with the game and giving us more to read or deliberately voting for me again and again? Sure, I'll take it. I think what decision you make would be telling as a read on you, so I'm really personally glad it worked out this way.] [OOC: They've been low-activity in games I've run, Ash has not been all that active lately, while Steel has been active enough in the games I've run and LG78. I think a lot of players in this game prefer to create ties and watch rather than to attempt to break them or do something about them. People tend to either make the ties and observe, or to complain they don't like ties and break them, not do both. I've been guilty of that myself in a number of games, but I figured I'd just be upfront that I intend to be less passive in my attitude about ties this game due to the stakes.] [OOC: ...He's dead, I think you can stop reading him right now ] [OOC: I have no idea what you're talking about please stop making me screw up more. For the moment, I'm going to put a vote on Fabien. What's up?]

[OOC: On the assumption that since only Elan died, no one played a card (could be wrong) : Final version (pending Lotus) Raw version I'm just going to comment that once again Kas has never found a train he dislikes apparently. A decent number of votes show up, Steel never voted, I don't think, and on being challenged, TUO pulled off and didn't come back. Ash has also apparently a burning hatred of Not Voting. Decent amount of movement from Archer, Mat, Striker. Araris wanted a tie at that point and was either content or simply found a convenient side-train. Given volatility, I think we need Elim risk appetite to get a decent sense of what was going on. I suppose the fact there were no terribly last minute (apart from my Elan shift) movements should be reassuring, but that being said, anyone who forced a last minute tie to get multiple players killed should be sus. This is something we likely need to watch out for in mid-to-late game, besides such things as double-voting cards. I say risk appetite matters because a 3-2 gap has some volatility which could easily be closed by the use of playing cards but the Elims apparently weren't all that bothered. So very light Village read on TUO from me for the moment while I try to figure what to make out of this.]

[OOC: Fair, thank you. This cements my 'I absolutely want a single train today' position, if only because of the uncertainty inherent but also presents me with a dilemma. I'm still hella against low activity due to recent experiences. No certainty on filter kill or what inactives mean to the Village and the possibility of Elim lurking isn't exactly great for us either. This means that having no especial suspicions apart from bad gut on Striker (which is normal), and bad gut on Fabien (we blame LG5 for this), I'm forced to choose between TUO and Elan. I don't really care for saving TUO, but I'm getting jitters about being on the same train as Striker, partly in light of what Archer said, and partly in light of the fact that my brain keeps coming back to Striker talking about me doing analysis in this game when, in my view, I don't tend to be especially analytical and I've already said I'm trying to chill and RP. I don't really know where his view on helpful!analytical!Kas is coming from because I've not seen him this game so far, and it feels like a bit of a reach/pocket attempt. With that and a massive sense of irony: TUO, you can consider yourself given a reprieve. Elan.] Karnan played the cards he was dealt.

[OOC: Definitely the work of depraved minds, in my view I pity all who are playing that game. As Eiwlil is missing-in-action: The Unknown Order (3): Elandera, Striker, Kasimir Elandera (2): Archer, Matrim's Dice Kasimir (2): Fabien, DrakeMarshall Ashbringer (1): Araris Valerian Considering I've had to nudge her into correcting her vote counts at least four times, I don't see this as a significant change Tfw you have OT but also no motivation to stare again at AI/ML stuff and so are on-thread despite needing to be off and away.]

[OOC: You and me both, bro. I hope this calamitous day never comes to pass ] [OOC: For a sudden, unexplainable and unexplained reason that cannot legally be articulated before the dispatched lawyers silence me, I have an immense and overwhelming desire to cry-laugh in the Hallendren jungle.] [OOC: What I'd specifically like to ask is if there will be inactivity filter kills, if the yardstick involves thread presence (i.e. can an Elim hang back and just submit kill orders/orders/talk in their doc), and also, if you can't find a pinch-hitter, will there be a filter kill? @Lotus It's probably easy for everyone to see what I'm getting at, but. Knowing whether Elims will be penalised for playing the low activity/not on the Shard game is helpful. If we know that players will be filter-killed if there's no pinch-hitter to be found, then we have to be prepared for a potential filter drop-off/die-off ahead, which can be a big issue given that ties already kill in this game.] Karnan shrugged. As far as he was concerned, he wasn't particularly against having Greyhound Jack [=TUO]sent off from the table, though he wasn't especially fond of - had that guard called himself Faleast? - well, Faleast's [=Ashbringer] reticence. All things considered, he wasn't particularly sensitive to tone; had a tendency to misread these things in card games, but any of the two were good enough in Karnan's eyes. And, he supposed the last thing they needed was another last-minute flurry of cheating accusations. Didn't see why people couldn't have the decency to just have it out now instead of leaving all that discussion and screaming and finger-pointing to the last storming minute. [OOC: From my aggressive allergy to low activity/inactivity perspective, TUO and Ash are both valid targets. I'd go for TUO over Ash at this juncture; I don't particularly feel the arguments for TUO but I'm weakly partial to TUO because current!Ash is an activity wildcard. I might as well flat-out say I intend to secure a single lynch train at the end, and having followed Steel's game with some interest, I don't think we want that sort of counterproductive chaos on - was it D4? D3? - where Lion, Dragonfly, Vulture, and Beagle decided to dance with the votes. Given this is D1, I don't think it's especially helpful to us to gun for multiple kills at once. Sorry, tie-lovers, I'm normally one of you but not in an eleven-player game with a chance for added kills and potential filter-deading But I don't think this is an especially controversial position.]

THE FIRST OF MASKS Karnan smirked. "That much is true." He shuffled his cards again and again. "Of course, I haven't had to cheat in almost seven years, and I've preferred silence to lying, as the Storm found out to his frustration." There was Brightlord Terneas, but he'd been lied to and used, and so that didn't count. [OOC: If it's not obvious, given my mention of backstory, Karnan is a character I used in LG20 when I ended up Elim because Maili accepted a bribe from Alv. But - and it's probably a combination of personality and playstyle - I'm no Connie, I will lie if I have to, I've just done my best to Aes Sedai some games and I prefer to keep things secret than to outright lie. Of course, I could be lying now. Complicated world, isn't it? ] [OOC: Seems about right to me. If so, Drake's insistence on ensuring I'm in any tie is odd, but if he wants to be a mule about it, that's not my problem.] "Guard duty isn't supposed to be exciting," Karnan pointed out. Still, the way Valimar'd just hopped on to calling Aralis a cheater didn't sit well with him, and Karnan liked to listen to his gut. Sometimes. [OOC: Araris. Ideally I will be around for rollover but that's questionable given the stuff I'm juggling. I know Striker loves ties but the way he followed me on to the Araris tie doesn't sit well with my gut. And I'm happy to admit I don't play SE as regularly as I used to, and Araris is one of the players I like to play with, at least for a while, so if it comes down to it. In case I do come back and the options shift, let me just state upfront who I'd be okay with grinching. I would be happy to go onto Ash or TUO. While this isn't a Contribution Crusade, I will say that recent events have made me very allergic to low activity/inactivity, and barring any strong suspicions, I'll go onto them. I don't feel okay shanking a guy currently GMing a game and anyway Steel and Drake are both mild trusts, but less than I can throw them, which isn't saying much since D1. Null on Archer and Mat at the moment, mild bad gut on Striker but I feel like Striker is the Shield of the Lynch so this is actually a normal reaction to Striker so I'm not going to overthink this. Also, LG73 haunts me >> No negative gut on Elan but generally meh. Negative gut on Fabien, since they're in the sweet spot for a new Elim, but I don't think we go after the new guy D1 and I'm not going to start. In summation: Would Lynch: Don't Care: Wouldn't Lynch: Obviously this is D1 and subject to change. Especially if I do manage to come back and y'all do something kayana again ] [OOC: And Elan ninjaed me while I was typing this so wheeeee. Let's see. @Lotus - What's the inactivity policy for this game? In absence of that: Ashbringer. ]

[OOC: I think you mean UnLucky >:( God, I'd be so tempted to self-exe on that sort of team. I mean I knowwwww gamethrowing but I can't see how this could be anything more than ten layers of bloody hell.] [OOC: Why you gotta make Eiwlil check every sentence you're saying? ] [OOC: That's what my ex said She's not wrong...] [OOC: I asked about an example of a tell and it was having to quote someone. You also don't have to do the tell multiple times though it'd be nice so theoretically you could get away with doing the tell once then lying multiple times. And I wouldn't be surprised if players are faking a tell just for the lulz - Eiwlil would do it and I was legit tempted before I decided it was too much effort. Should be RP here but it's a long day and I'm tired...] Edited for justification. Imagine if my tell was that I couldn't justify everytime I told a lie. So much hell. Then again, I almost never lie in SE games. That blew Eiwlil's mind.

THE KING OF CUPS "Hardly," scoffed Karnan. He'd played cards with the one they called the Storm several times, and most of them were unsatisfying and consisted in them silently glaring at each other while speaking of nothing of note. As far as he was concerned, if 'Honest' Jake was having fun, it wasn't his problem, though Karnan did find himself amused at the thought that Jake had previously commented on Eiwlil's unpredictability. Then again, he supposed you saw yourself best reflected in the styles of others. It was that way, with the sword. "What's the fun in that?" said Karnan. "I'll guess as I please. What're you going to do, have me barred from the game?" [OOC: I feel spicy. Surely Drake wouldn't NK me for taunting him...would he? ] [OOC: Excuse you sir I have the receipts.] Karnan supposed this was true: that if you played enough games of cards, you were eventually bound to hit that one sacred game where the players just shut up and bantered and didn't do anything too funny and just let him quietly blow off steam. One day. One day. He ignored Heron telling him that it wasn't doing him a lick of good. The last he needed was his own head offering him unsolicited advice in Heron's voice.

THE LANTERN-BEARER [OOC: Was supposed to edit this in but ninja-ed by Striker. Partly agree, partly disagree. Gonna disagree with this one if it's raw randomness. She's got better balance I think in terms of raw probabilities since it's 1/18th for a kill card but RNGesus is going to RNGesus. RNGesus role madness in a set of eleven players is merry hell to balance for, even for an experienced GM. That being said, I absolutely think the distro would've been done to minimise volatility because that's what you do. I mean, logically, whatever my alignment is, I'd love Steel's plan. If I'm Elim and you all really do die, my team automatically wins. And if I'm Village and everyone dies, Village automatically wins since the Elims would all be dead. The fact that I think a bit better of you and Steel for your thoughts on that plan even if that plan doesn't work should be indicative but really I'm just here to have a quiet, chill RPful game and play a mean game of cards.] Karnan smiled and kept his cards close to hand. A nice, quiet posting, even if card games sometimes had the potential to go awry with this lot. Cheaters and all that. You never showed the cards in your hand, and it wasn't always the easiest thing, reading the others, though you tried, of course. You always tried. Heron was one painful chullson to read. Never really knew what he was thinking. Ordinary Heron was readable enough. You knew when you needled him, when you pushed him too far. When Heron put his game face on, that was a different story. "Talk less, play more," Karnan said.

THE PRINCE OF CUPS "Interesting," Karnan drawled. "Of course, you're very much like Eiwlil at cards. A bird told me so." He knew the type: make openly contradictory statements, act seemingly chaotic, try to provoke and draw out reactions. He played the Prince of Cups, face-down. A young highprince with cups overflowing: dangerous, jovial, but air in the card, air to balance the water. Thought ran deep beneath the surface, as it always did. Real question was what Jake's game was, but Karnan thought he'd had a guess. At any rate, he'd mildly a good opinion of Steel and Jake at this juncture. Enough that he wasn't planning to immediately call them out as cheaters, though you never knew. You never stopped counting your cards and watching your spheres, and early impressions could always be flawed, the way Karnan saw it. Sometimes, even well-formed impressions. He'd respected Brightlord Terneas. And then there was Heron. Still, he wasn't about to disrespect Aralis like that. Probably wouldn't get a rise out of the old man, but Karnan liked to think he'd try anyway. Maybe one day he'd get through to him, and wouldn't that be a surprise? [OOC: Look at that troll DNA. Of course she would I am bullied.] [OOC: I blame Wyrm, I had to do a shoutout to his character, specifically the one that got me shanked in Kholinar ] Karnan eyed Valimar wearily. "Lad," he said, "Maybe cool it on the passion a little. It's just cards." [OOC: Hey hey what's with your commitment issues Striker ]

THE KING IN THE SALT Karnan snorted. "Did my best, didn't I? Quartermaster put the requisition through. You know what it's like though, always fighting with Accounting. 'Least they can do if they're going to feed us on Soulcast food." He was used enough to soldier's rations that he wasn't about to complain, even though he'd seen the finer foods that the Alethi lords ate at the various functions and events he'd shadowed Brightlord Terneas too. Almighty, those were the days. And here he was now, an old sword, rusting, put out to pasture, partly by his own design, playing cards with the men under his charge in Urithiru. Who'd've thought? Heron'd have made some acerbic comment about that, and then buried his nose in some scholarly treatise or other. But that was Heron for you. Trust that man like you'd trust a knife. Best kept close and watched. Karnan shrugged. "Balance, no balance, always depends on how the cards fall, isn't it? Sometimes, you just got to plan for the worst. Sometimes life throws you Shardblades and then it all goes to Braize in a basket." It hadn't, not really. Karnan'd never laid a hand on one, and never planned to. Something about Shardblades unnerved him. A sword was a tool, to be cared for, used, and discarded. The idea of so much mystique and craving surrounding a blade never made sense to him. [OOC: Okay, too tired to finesse this one via RP. I'm obviously a biased party but I'd agree - two person Elim team is a bit too small given the obvious volatility of this game in my view, especially with all cards being distributed by RNGesus. I had to annul results a couple of times in MR43 with the IM's approval because RNGesus gave all except two players a one-shot kill. Not saying it will happen here, but once you let RNGesus run rampant, having a two-man Elim team just seems a bit too subject to RNGesus volatility. Whether or not that could potentially work with regard to a three-person team with GC, I wouldn't know.] Travis made a good point about ties, though. As much as Karnan didn't mind playing solitaire, he figured it was easy enough to get caught off-guard, and suddenly before they knew it, half the table was sent off as cheaters. Wouldn't do, would it? [OOC: Eiwlil has clarified that the vote shift card can in fact create ties. Just to confirm, I'd like @Lotus to comment on this please.] All in all, Karnan could see a case for being cautious about margins when accusing another guard of cheating. And really, if he'd wanted to play solitaire, he'd have dropped in on Heron, probably.