Kasimir
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Everything posted by Kasimir
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...So basically my vote don't matter here? Sorry, just back from a meeting, can be present through to EoD but uh. Ngl last night's Kas did not fw the TOW train. I'm gonna read and see what's there. @Aeternum Where're you on Hoid mentally at present? Edited to add: Also gonna add I'm getting slight PTSD from TOW not self-pressing, though there's still 27 minutes left on the clock.
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Ngl the nice thing about wrestling fandom and mental health break is that it's hard to get seriously annoyed by that, coughing baby v hydrogen bomb meme, lots of ragebaiting trolls there Philosophy.
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I'll be in and out until an hour from rollover but: @DrakeMarshall Can I get a vc? We need two votes to exe and IDR how split everything is rn. Edited to add: Also uh, chill guys, the grad school shaming thing is just funny and I had no issue with it, Newt just misread me (or I was tired and incoherent.) My point was that the word has a very specific technical meaning so after doing grad school, I can't use it so casually anymore
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That does mean even if he's E, he's not our Spymaster? I have no objection since we have to gun our way through pretty much every last Rebel until the Spymaster is gone, but I'm also thinking aloud in terms of who is likely to be what. Tbf if Hoid is exed and flips Rebel, it is possible he simply didn't receive that drop and just made the claim. (I have some hesitation because I think we are assuming similarities in the drop that can be down to order of claims or just the fact that we're not hearing more from Hoid et al about the framing of it, which is why I asked a little yesterday.) Drop just was our thoughts RE: whether at least two Rebels have established contact or not. Not changing my vote at this point because I'm guaranteed to be on later and I do want to hear from Storm as well. But no objection to an exe within my 3-pool, which includes Hoid Edited to add: @Aeternum: Want to know what you make of this claim:
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Completely did not vote. Argenti thinks apathy should be a point in favour of V!Hoid: I'm trying to work out how I feel about this because we got burned by Dingo before when Dingo didn't save teammates. It's true I'd expect Hoid to have voted in that world. I suppose it's also possible that with Fura on his side, Dive didn't feel he needed another teammate to defend him, and the votes were comfortably 3-2.
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Any chance you can spell this out for me a bit more? Same question. Do we then assume he went full apathy on the Dive exe? He's in the three I'm primarily considering today.
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I'm using the term from epistemology, so it doesn't really mean something in SE, I'm using it as shorthand to refer to a player seeming to have stronger credences in a particular belief/proposition than they probably should. It can just be that they're that way, but sudden increases...I sometimes gotta ask if that's TMI. Fair but also, lol RIP
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I think my main question with this is: how does a guy go from retaliatory voting and vibes last cycle to what actually reads like a more solid V!read on Hoid? Because something I'm thinking about is - is Argenti overcredencing? And if he is, does that come from Spymaster TMI? (I acknowledge there are Head Honcho worlds - I really cannot control for those and it's going to be a possibility we have to work around regardless, and it's Argenti's (if HH) most sacred duty to deny this regardless.) (Also, was this there last cycle? Note to self: look back.) I don't disagree with apathy reasoning but the first part is technically NAI since he would be busy regardless of his alignment, and I agree on the latter but note apathy clears have failed in the past (Dingo/Ashbringer being a prominent case - basically if you really are too busy/sick, then you simply can't vote despite/regardless of urgency.) I'm asterisking the apathy clear partly because I think Hoid is just a good enough player I think he knows to commit through it. Functionally if he's earnestly locked out, then I question the motivation to stay alive, i.e. his "don't make me vote you" from last cycle. Those don't often really come together. If I'm overwhelmed (and I was for the last few cycles), then my mentality is "ok if you flip me, you flip me (because I CBA to defend too much), here's where I think we should go next." Hoid is suggesting he'll come off the bench if there's a threat to his life. I appreciate he's here while he is, but that's a bit ? For this reason I wanna ask if the bolded expresses more certainty than we usually see, especially given the basis. FWIW Argenti, do you have views on Storm? TOW? Edited to add: Normally when you say something like this, I expect distancing, because that's what happens with mutually-valenced aggression. There can be worlds where it's V/V, but context will probably help distinguish between both worlds. I'll look at the votes in a bit as I've something due, but if I don't get to it in time, I need someone to help me check/establish what happens to Argenti and TwinStorm voting on each other when each other is endangered. Are they switching off, is there a push for an in-thread alternative? This is a fair point/catch but I'd wanna see if Storm is committed. If he aggros one but doesn't the other, that's also interesting because like how do I put it. If I spend at least a cycle sussing you and Doc but only vote on you, then that's a kind of preference and we wanna know why I'm going easy on Doc but not on you. Otherwise I'd kind of agree he's unlikely to call out both. There might be a world distancing really works here because suppose he aggressively distances from the Spymaster, who gets exed, and then Twin becomes the Spymaster. In that world we would just think that's not happening and we mightn't look for succession there. The main reason I go back to interest that they are aggroing each other is that Elims tend to mutually distance. It is I would argue less common to see Elim #1 distance from Elim #2 but not have #2 push back: the idea is to create the perception they're at odds. Yeah I just stated it in-thread earlier. Lotus claimed to Fura who claimed to me that he RBed me D2. I didn't do anything that Day since I only got a single-shot so nothing came out of it.
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Edited to add 2: There's a class of Elim which does this and I've been gone enough IDK if that's TOW or not, but I think: I have an impulse to V!lean this because I think it's just kayana that TOW is trying to push an E!Fura agenda here and I don't think that's the sort of thing an Elim (particularly a lone one) thinks to do (unsure how much composure E!TOW has, someone feel free to chime in if you've seen that before.) In fact, he pushes both me (fair) and Fura, and Fura is in particular kayana but pushing me after I pushed back on Doc for the "someone is lying about messages" take is a pretty baller mindset so I'm gonna take it to come from a more Villagery perspective for now. So: Probably Village: BookNewt, TOW Can be Village for now: Doc Interesting apathy: ACE* *With ACE my thought is just that this guy has been there so theoretically you'd expect him to self-pres/save Dive if he really needed to but he's not doing anything and asked for a replacement. I don't think that's very 'overwhelmed Elim' profile-ish so IDK there. I've just been burned by apathy clears before. So back to the Triumverate of Terror ig: <Hoid, Argenti, Storm.> I'll be honest that some of Storm's early reads make me feel a bit but I need to see the timing of them. By this point in the game the Spymaster probably has some Village scans due to misfires so I'd expect them to have a bit more TMI behind their reads. Hoid's apathy is interesting, as are the observations about friendly neighbourhood Observer State. There's some thoughts about bussing v. apathy here where Doc and Hoid are concerned IMO since Hoid could technically get V!credit but there's a world he's savvy enough to hardcommit. Doc and Hoid overdoing fog-of-war lives rent-free in my head, and that's something I'm slightly concerned about, but we're back to the bit where IDK Dive gives Fura tech just for Doc to earn Village cred, maybe but that's not necessarily a loose end you think about under time pressure. Maybe. I need more Argenti reads. Edited to add 3: I'd like something brief, doesn't have to be well-researched or anything, since you lived through it, at least what was in your head that sorta thing. Looking at your EoD - doesn't have to be right now as I'll be on tomorrow before EoD this time since I got stuff in that timing so I'm guaranteed some cycle time and less sleep-deprived than before. I mean, isn't saving yourself and Fura two separate things? Sending in a protect =/= trying to save yourself in the thread, and as far as I can see it didn't go anywhere because you legit just said "don't make me vote" and then things moved on.
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8 players left. Probably 2-3 Elims, I'm refusing to entertain a 4 Elim world because that's just grim. From Fura (if it's in thread already I apologise, checking across things is rough and I haven't been locked in this game) : I did receive a message but it's a very stylistic one which makes me think it's from the Elim who sent the messages D1 and D3. It is definitely possible one of our durasteel guys might be it, but yeah. Let's see if this pulls anything. Day One: Doc is probably Village (?) but I don't wanna do it too strongly in my credences. Interesting that Dive is voting for the Villager and saving the Elim despite no connection. Am curious if STINK and Dive managed to make contact. Need to look at Storm's KSauce vote. Side-trains look clean from my POV so it's either main train or didn't vote at all where the Elims were concerned. STINK didn't self-pres. I guess timezones. Day Two: I'm curious about Storm going onto TUH in light of train volume. Need to look at EoD of D2 again as I remember people saying something about train size. Day Three: This is the day Fura scams Dive, and also the same cycle that I receive the specific recruitment message while Fura and BookNewt receive a cross-validated message, and Hoid claims one as well. This might therefore be the cycle we expect to see some Elim cooperation in. Dive pushing Argenti over Storm is an interesting choice. Both because we believe that Dive has met a fellow Elim by this point (messages) and Dive choosing to CW onto Argenti instead. It is certainly true that by then, Fura is on Argenti, so Dive is sort of drawn there, but I'm curious why Dive didn't try to solicit another target since he was in comms with Fura and didn't want to do a LHF train. Storm for the moment. I feel there might be a light apathy clear for TOW, Coder, Hoid, or Doc, but IDK I want to push that too strongly because better men than me have died to dingo bites @Doc12 - Question for you. You claimed to have targeted me D3. You were also advocating for flipping me and Hoid D3 - what's the thought process there? Second question: you mentioned abstaining from voting because you didn't care which of Dive or Argenti died. In that light, before Fura hammered, it was Argenti-Dive 3:2. You mentioned loving ties before and ties are randed here: is there a reason you didn't want to vote and create a tie here? And then: Day Four: Cross-voting from Storm and Argenti, with Hoid in the mix. Ngl I don't really know how I feel about it, it's... I feel like the way it fell into retaliatory voting is noteworthy, I just don't know what sense to make of it. In an E!Storm world, I'd low key wonder if an IHAT voter is E. There's just a lot of scatter/chaff here where the voting is concerned, but the fact it seemed to heat up a bit with Storm v Argenti v Hoid makes me feel like there's something about that triple threat match worth paying attention to Edited to add: @Hoid Slayer, @Argenti, @TwinStorm I'm gonna need your reads on each other and your take of how last cycle went down, thank you. Help me out here because it's just confusing me
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Okay, I had sleep, time to catch-up with whatever went down while I was recharging. Ni su'cuyi, gar kyr'adyc, ni partayli, gar darasuum Fura Had a bad feeling about Fura since that was the obvious shot after Fura scammed Dive but hoped there would be a successful intercept. Guessing not. Unsure if Fura dropped his scan claims in the thread. If he didn't, I'll share it later after catching up. oh hi Aet unless he evil then Edited to add: From backread land: I'm ok with keeping the V!read on BookNewt. I think this kind of 180 on Fura feels natural and comes from a Village paranoia mindset. I don't think an Elim tries to do it here because that's very obvious push-back incoming. There's a world in which Newt is screwy enough as an Elim but I don't know enough about Newt and don't have the inclination to backread Newt's games as that's more effort than I wanna put in, so someone lmk if I'm getting Newt's E!range wrong. Edited to add 2: wtf was that EoD/late day screw me imma need more caffeine to deal with it Edited to add 3: @Hoid Slayer - Given your medic claim, I presume you didn't make an intercept on Fura? Why/not? Edited to add 4: Can someone explain to me the Argenti v Hoid counter-accusations here? Like how did we go from that to IHAT? I'm trying to make sense of the thread.
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No. Absurdly utility-centric. (I would say utilitarian but I didn't do grad school to drop that word like this ) I would argue extremely bare-bones, no fluff, nothing. That's what confused me as it felt different from the ISB Killer, and more importantly, Doc claimed earlier to have received a similar message to mine this cycle (so last cycle was me, this cycle was him.) This excludes the Elim in question from being the ISB Killer if true because we have two messages cotemporously existing. To anyone whose PMs I didn't answer, sorry, really struggling with energy at the moment, trying to sleep a little and come back with more SAN.
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Tbh. Okay Leute. ACE.
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Ah. Yeah, threat kills. There's a bunch of factors behind those, but I think we have to keep in mind as well that the Elims are also dealing with fog-of-war in this game. I'm guessing it is possibly a combination of factors: A. we aren't correct or generally aren't pressuring the Elims very much, B. the team isn't connected enough to accurately assess who is posing a threat to them, C. a corollary of B - they don't want to kill potential deepwolf members (I'm guessing that the message I received (and Doc claimed to have received one cycle after) was a very targeted recruitment message, so at least someone (Dive?) seemed to believe there were deepwolves, and D. the threat kills simply aren't successful on the RNG and they're selecting silent kills. I think there's also E. - they've decided that the ideal strategy as a Head Honcho is to keep your head low and are thus shooting in the pool of players hanging back, figuring it's more likely to net a hit. Hard to call off-hand. I'd agree with you a non-aggressive kill strategy is worth paying attention to, it's just also affected/modulated by the game conditions. - Anyway. Tired, sleep-deprived thoughts (I'll come back later to do the messages but wanted to at least take stock of what I now believe(d) : Probably Village: <Fura, Newt, Hoid, Doc> Unsure: <Argenti (lean V but not sure), Lotus> Relook: <TOW, Storm, ACE> If I forgot anyone, they immediately go into relook. I'm going to vote on TOW for the moment because I distrust how much this player has disappeared for me (which might be a me problem.) @DrakeMarshall: Are TOW or ACE in trouble for inactivity, in terms of filter?
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I just came back to SE, I'm sorry, I can't help with that Please do some! I would but really tired and just trying to read some stuff if I can atm. Don't worry too much on the 'first game' front, Divergent's clearly played elsewhere before, I recognise the terms used But yes, great play, Dive! That's what I'm trying to work out. Given the timing of the vote, Argenti was the only possible self-pres option for Dive. I'd also wager Dive was the one who sent the fairly strategic and utilitarian message I got D2. I'm trying to figure if there's any sense we can make around the other messages, since Hoid did return last cycle too. Can you say more about this? It might be useful for kill analysis. Honestly I was too tired to care. But I was also too tired to even bother giving a reason for voting so shout-out to you man, all I did was just go "lol ACE ain't coming back" and naked voted without caring. I am more willing to believe you are Village given the voting (one or two weird worlds I don't wanna think too hard about now) which makes the crossover on your name actually quite interesting where the messages were concerned. I'm thinking looking at players who were trying to push/set you up might matter too
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Against. Normally an Elim prefers to CW on a Villager. We need to figure out if Dive's voting behaviour gives any indication about Argenti due to fog-of-war. Minimally Dive probably did not believe Argenti was the Spymaster.
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They're very useless (sorry Elims, I mean they're pretty but don't do anything) stylistic, fluffy, RP-heavy messages with the same sign-off so they're the same MO/reflect the same mindset. It's interesting there was nothing D2 from this chap though. Anyway how many more Rebels we figuring? I'm thinking I'm cool sticking to my guns on V!Fura for the moments. There's a world in which this is Spymaster Fura who just gained trust by bussing Dive (or even not, maybe just friendly fire (?)) but I don't really think it's something I'm inclined to open atm. We might need to just gun our way through the Rebel numbers until we hit the Spymaster but ideally we get 'em and end this. I'm gonna need to work out the Argenti counter-train after I'm done with my presentation. P.S. Good job Coder, you did the most important thing a Head Honcho needs to do and did it correctly
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Yeah that's my thought. Clear stylistic and MO similarities. Yesterday I got one that drove me a bit nuts because it seemed to be the only instance we had, and it was very utilitarian/bare-bones. Edited to add: Name checks out
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Yeah. I feel this guy just has a different MO from the last two ngl.
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Yeah. I'm still dead drop central ig. Lemme get back on the rest later, busy RL stuff.
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Divergent Screw it I can't think anymore but ACE is prolly gonna be filtered, you people just work around me. Goodnight for real.
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Don't really gaf if I flip and am not changing my vote because I still haven't slept and can only therefore trust past me. Possibly sleep-addled thought but I wanted to get it out there: I kind of want to think Hoid is Village on account of the way he's missed the dead drop ability but also equally distrust how both he and Doc are considering more complex variants that make me wonder if they have Elim fog-of-war. It is possible their regular Village play is so gambity that it's their normal frame of reference. I just hesitate as I also am gambit happy but didn't immediately think of it. After I flip Village, I advise exeing Doc over Hoid first. I don't really trust the insistence that one of us must be lying about unique messages because it reads to me like a para(noia) exe and I especially dislike chain exes. Like what do you do after I flip Village? Doesn't Doc's discomfort also call for flipping Hoid? We legit gonna go through both of us before deciding if the message is or isn't a lie? It feels like a chain misexe set-up and I don't trust it because of how it's anchored on a specific world with no consideration of what's probable or not. Hoid seems V, if he's replaced Aet is presumably readable, don't sleepwalk into the Hoid exe. No energy to figure wtf with Fura but my last read was V and I stand by it because tired. Goodnight all.
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They claimed to both have received a message. IDR anyone else with that exact claim. Your claim and mine are not corroborated. They corroborate each other. I'm saying that whether there is an objective, honest to God dead drop message they received is between them and Drake, which honestly terrifies me because Drake. In your reaction test scenarios, they both agree to lie about receiving it (possibly you as a collaborator or someone else running in on it) and there never was an actual message sent. The point of this would be to try to get reactions—hmm. Ok so that's the rough outline. I'm trying to remember who paranoided about fake messages or tried to complicate because that could also be an outlier. Recognise I'm just throwing stuff for future me or another villager to read after I'm dead because I really am running on empty now. Off the top of my head that's you and Doc but technically I'm then the outlier which doesn't help me
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Yes and no I guess. In the world Fura and Lotus are both villagers (one of your scenarios, or I guess the E/V world), they basically make this claim and slowly disseminate it to try to test for reactions. This does require them to have trusted each other but would be a world in which no message was actually sent (which is what I assumed you were thinking about.) I'm trying to work out what happens in this world, but that's the point my brain stopped cooperating. My instinct was to treat the messages as real but: Hmm. Okay let's look at these considerations: -You and I both got single-appearance messages. (I'm not fully sure an Elim can choose to vary the text of the message when sending it on because to me, the different lists in the message text should count as two messages, otherwise one Elim just texts the entire group, gives them all a different code word, and then calls it a day, which makes hooking up with each other trivial by D3.) -Moreover, suppose Lotus and Fura are in fact running a test. The big question is, where are the other messages? You and I both got uniques. But a lot of people seem to have received durasteel last night, and sufficient people received the second planets message as well. If Lotus and Fura are lying, does it mean the only two messages are yours and mine? Isn't that still a weird shift that should poke holes in this scenario because Lotus and Fura would've known to expect people claiming extra messages, potentially widely-disseminated like D1 Durasteel and possibly a nonsensical count?) [IDK tbh I'm thinking aloud and maybe not coherently.] -I just find it very weird that you and I technically got solo (for now) messages. It's weird yours is a variant of Lotus and Fura's, and it's weird that mine seems to be so strongly unique that...yeah. Yours seems (in a truthful world) to imply coordination, and mine seems to imply very specific targeting. The messages also seems to have reached fewer people than last cycle. It almost seems like they have some kind of successful reads happening which allows more focused dissemination. -I seem to recall IHAT said Storm may have implied receiving the same message (TwinSoul) but largely through the use of the same word or something like that. Take it as you will. I put this in quotes because I think this is important and I semi-think that this might be a useful perspective slip if anyone can go back and take a look. I think it's easy for Villagers to underestimate the impact of Elim fog-of-war and I'd honestly forgotten about it until I remembered how bad that game with Drake was. This might help wrt reads on some players. I wouldn't use it going forwards since I've said it now, but if there's any assessment that's made, yeah. Sorry. Think my brain can't do more rn. My last vote was on ACE, there's probably a FAFO world where we just vote Newt to understand what's going on, I kinda get the Storm vote. Or I should anyway because I see some ambivalence in notes. I guess I can just do the thing where I vote and let people sorta just move around my vote. IDK. Working out if ACE vote is still constructive rn tbh since I won't realistically be able to see any developments. No stop can we just not fail fail should not be an option here. No, I'm using the 24 hour clock. But I've been running real short for the last week or so for various reasons, so I guess it's gonna be fun.
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It has to be a fake claim, no? ISB loyals cannot at all send out anon messages. Those are distinctive. If it's Elim bait, basically one of them did this to try to get an Elim to use the word in the thread, or in PMs, but with the extent to which the messages are being discussed (same with the last durasteel one), that got washed real fast. Soddit, you should be doing your homework, and it is nearly 0644hrs and I haven't slept, thoughts and incense for my presentation ig because I'm gonna be doing it on half a brain Edited to add: I acknowledge this is deserved.
