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Kasimir

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  1. Kasimir
  2. Kasimir
    The strongest case I can make for E!Bookwyrm is functionally: This post, right after Mat and I are both sussing each other and I'm appealing to the thread for their views on Mat. The first line seems designed as a disclaimer: "This isn't related to what the rest of you have been talking about, because I haven't read it, this is just coincidence." And that vote looks extremely opportunistic because it comes right at that time and when Mat has three votes on him - this makes Bookwyrm the fourth voter. The thing is that you can't even say E!Bookwyrm wouldn't because it's too obvious, because he was also an opportunistic fourth voter on V!Archer in QF63, he just did it via sheeping: Which IMO shows that E!Bookwyrm isn't afraid to be opportunistic and just has issues formulating suspicions, which is fair given his Village play and his experience level. Araris, FWIW: I don't actually disagree with his assessment there, but I do think he overstates a little - V!Bookwyrm for instance kept raising hackles in LG90 because he kept stating his votes were subject to change. The strongest case to me for V!Bookwyrm is the fact the train disintegrated fairly normally: Elk and Xino went off, and Araris went to Xino. Also, this post: I don't know if I see this sort of retraction making sense from an Elim, even one with Bookwyrm's profile who was told to walk it back. Like, can you make sense of his reasoning? "I voted Mat because he saw something he thought was suspicious and that made no sense to me. But he's doing the exact same thing I did (and I'm Village!) so my vote isn't really justified." I kind of don't know if this is likely from E!Bookwyrm - I feel like the Elim doc would tell him to deescalate, maybe vote someone else. I'm not sure they'd advise him to retract via asserting he's a Villager and what Mat did was the same as what he did. Remember, this is a teammate who just attracted a lot of attention D1! I also think that the fact this is 1PM (rollover is at 3PM) suggests either than one of the <Szeth, Alv, Elk, TUN> crowd is Evil (in an E!Bookwyrm world) or that the Elims are just fundamentally comfortable with leaving the Bookwyrm train as it is in the lead. It's not the strongest point as Elims can absolutely bus teammates or have a big risk appetite, but that's my read of the feel of the thread. Too many "I don't actually care if Bookwyrm gets lynched" people, and a few loud anti-Bookwyrm voices. So in short I guess I feel Silho's neutral category, because I can see both Bookwyrm cases and I'm not really sure which way to lean. Side-question for y'all: @Archer, @Araris Valerian - you both insist E!you would go for the Shaman. Isn't Jezrien a bigger threat to you, on the assumption that Jezrien is in V!hands? Or do you know something we don't? Araris might remember the trauma of getting scanned repeatedly by Xino
  3. Kasimir
    Are you unwilling to lynch a player you have at null? Because I'm not. I only protect my Village reads. LHF = Low Hanging Fruit. Basically, either Bookwyrm is very, very obviously Evil, or he's lynchbait. You know how D1s usually work: TUN says something mildly sus and people lynch TUN because they sure as hell aren't willing to lynch Mat or Archer or Illwei or me; they do D1 us sometimes but not like that. This used to be SE at every single new player. If you remember playing with Thaid, think Thaid. I don't rule out that Bookwyrm could be very, very obviously Evil because if you look at his level of play from QF63 and LG90, it does explain why that's currently the correct level of evaluation on Bookwyrm. But Bookwyrm is just that shade of inexperienced chaotic that I could easily just see it as people being opportunistic about new player weirdness. My point is that in the world where it's new player weirdness, that's such lynchbait that it doesn't seem alright to me Araris is that fine with it. It's exacerbated by Stick, because Stick is that unfine with it and basically no one else is! How the hell do you have a read on a player that pretty much everyone is ambivalent about? I feel like Bookwyrm is a solid null- for most. So in general as I told Stick, I'm just not a fan of both her approach and Araris's so I do feel that there's something weird about that train, and I'm currently locating the weirdness in <Stick, Araris.> I'll grant that I'm much, much more willing to litigate a lynch than the two of them are - I'm the overthinker here. But I also do not understand why there is no doubt at all, and how they can have credences more certain than mine. That's about it. There's what TUN says about you being LHF so technically TUN voting you should get him sussed, but in all fairness, the circumstances are different. You haven't played in quite a while, which adds to the difficulty of reading you. You also don't have what I would absolutely agree to be an insanely opportunistic and Evil looking vote, which powerfully motivates a lot of the Bookwyrm voters (my assumption anyway.) And finally, TUN's new playstyle is just throwing a wrench into everything and I at least am giving him space for it until I work out where I stand on him. There's a reason TUN is also still tanking sus. Edited to add: Bro rn you wanna vote everyone .__.
  4. Kasimir
    I find it tempting because it doesn't seem right to me that Araris sits deep on a train that is, to be honest, fairly LHF. I usually think of Araris as being a somewhat more thoughtful player than that. I don't rule out that Bookwyrm could be Evil, but Araris being willing to sit that deep doesn't ping right to me. So what is your current read on Araris?
  5. Kasimir
    So updating this so I can just follow: Szeth_Pancakes / Ookla the Omnicient (2): The Unknown Novel, _Stick_ The Bookwyrm / Ookla the Perpetual (4): Araris Valerian, JNV, Turtle, Cash Elkanah (2): The Bookwyrm / Ookla the Perpetual, Szeth_Pancakes / Ookla the Omnicient xinoehp512 (1): Kasimir Araris (2): Mat, Archer Are you guys confusing Cash with Coop by the way. K so Bookwyrm is in the lead now. I could probably swing this because minimally if I go onto any Elk/Araris/Szeth train, I'll probably pull Alv with me. Part of me just wants to flip Bookwyrm so we can stop hearing about it and ok I will stop complaining that Chana didn't want to do something I technically am reluctant to do right now. I am low key tempted by the Araris and Elk trains tbh.
  6. Kasimir
    It's fine, old man RL first, this comes for us all eventually :eyes:
  7. Kasimir
    K sorry am on mobile so quoting is clumsy. 1. I am saying I don't disagree with Araris's thoughts on why the lack of resistance might not be telling cf tie signalling. I am interested in whether that influences your calculus. 2. Well, no. I'm saying I'm concerned one of you is Evil because both of you are very different from where I'm psychologically at and I don't understand where both of you can feel so certain about the fact you have sharply differing reads on Bookwyrm. I'm at the point where I would not be surprised Pikachu no matter which way he flips. If anything, I have a lack of clarity. I don't disagree with Araris that you could be trying to redirect attention away from Bookwyrm with an aggressive train on Elk. But at the same time, Araris's willingness to go for Bookwyrm really feels off to me—I don't know that it makes sense to me that he's just content with the immediate LHF train. I almost want to say it feels like the lazy response to me and that has my hackles up. He could absolutely be right—my weakness is often my willingness to just commit to the obvious Evil. But still. With both of you so at odds, only one of you can be right. And the way both of you have been approaching this cycle makes me worry one of you isn't actually with pure intentions. I don't disagree with the kill point but feel it can be blurred by the team issue. Sort of how I wrongly cleared Araris in LG83, where it isn't as though it's a negative kill meta issue. That being said, I would not go on you without Bookwyrm flipping E at this point as the priority is more clearly from Bookwyrm. Also, are you sure you didn't just read the kill blade being referred to as Chana? I intend to reread both threads and decide where to vote before rollover. Of necessity, may be a bit late as I intend to get two to three more hours of sleep first.
  8. Kasimir
    Slightly around twenty-four hours left before sign-ups close!
  9. Kasimir
    The question is, do you switch back though? Because it looked to me as though your switch back wasn't so much motivated by his failure to back you up, as by the fact that you had suspicion of Bookwyrm and that there was a direct tie at the point of your vote. I think it's also possible he could've anchored your vote in place, but anchoring the Wiz train was more important at that juncture. That being said, this is a place where I do feel that Bookwyrm with teammates should've been told to show up and to try to defang the suspicion. Because it's exactly what you said: saving Bookwyrm does matter, but that doesn't do much good if Bookwyrm can't try to unwind some of that suspicion, the way Aman talked Szeth through it in AG8. Sure worked on me, anyway. And the Elim doc in QF63 at least seems to indicate Bookwyrm is cooperative on a team. Is it though? I mean, I find this a very odd claim to make when: A. Chana didn't strike down Bookwyrm N1, and B. D2, we are actively considering whether Bookwyrm is such a LHF train that something is wrong with it. That seems like the definition of success to me, given the usual results when an Elim falls under suspicion D1. You have more extensive Evil experience than me, so you can probably tell me what options I'm missing: but really when E!Bookwyrm comes under heavy suspicion D1, what are your options? (A) Instigate CWs (B) Splinter train (C) Probably a mix of both. (D) Just ride the tie I'd argue if you can do (B), (B) is better, because you can at least try to argue there was no apparent resistance, therefore there was unlikely to be Elim interest. It looks much worse if aggressive CWs spring up because then people get itchy to flip the original train. Edited to add: That is, people are more likely to resist bringing the train back if you can argue it dissolved organically the first time around. Either way, I'd argue this only matters if Bookwyrm flips E, and I'm still not necessarily convinced that's the route I want to take just yet. But I certainly wouldn't be upset if Bookwyrm got flipped (Chana...why...) so there's that. Edited to add 2: @_Stick_, interested if this changes your calculus on Bookwyrm or not. Edited to add 3: Ngl, despite my suspicions of the Elk train, I dislike it because I don't trust Stick and Bookwyrm, and I dislike the Bookwyrm train for my reservations and I don't trust Araris. And I distrust Araris because Stick and Araris are too at odds for this to make sense to me. But I swear to the Almighty I have had it with ties. Edited to add 4: What if we made players go into extra time if a cycle ends in a tie. :eyes: And if after two semi-cycles of extra time, it's still a tie, we go into a penalty shootout :eyes:
  10. Kasimir
    You did, I just found it a bit weird anyway despite that, since as you point out, 36 hours to EoD is kind of early for self-pres, so I wasn't sure how you would've read the scenario as a self-pres one anyway. Did he need to follow by that point, though? You yourself pointed out the pre-commitment to a tie more or less entailed Archer could very well afford to keep his vote in reserve instead of immediately following you. In an E/E Archer/Bookwyrm world, you don't need to stack a side-train: you just need to peel off enough voters, seeing as that the Wiz, Mat, and TUN trains were already dominant then. To recap, this is the state of the votes when you swap off: I'm also a bit lost as to why Archer figured you were putting enough pressure on Xino so it was fine for him to stay on Wiz. A single vote really isn't pressure at all in this sort of landscape, evidenced by the utter lack of fricks that Xino had to give. The other reason I'm reluctant to let go of this theory yet is - check out the state of the votes when Archer tells you he'd really rather not swap to Xino after all. Bookwyrm in the lead tie via Mat. (Technically, Chantara hasn't unvoted TUN yet, but.) Swapping to Xino doesn't defang it. I suppose there's also the thought about Elims attempting to shape the final landscape of the Day if they know that there are going to be ties, but that being said, refusing the Xino swap looks fairly consistent in an E/E world. E!JNV. But where E!JNV is concerned, my being alive is...probably a bit weirder. Yes, but don't forget that the Blade will be auto-passed if the killer chooses not to claim it, so the Shaman functionally has to decide if that person is Evil or just lucky. I suppose we could argue they have good reason to deny us Pailah's Blade but really that's a IKYK. (Shaman knows people with Blades and numbers, so can check for discrepancies assuming no one would trust enough to pass a Blade this early.) Shaman cannot use the Honorblades, therefore cannot make PMs. Quite likely five. There's the World Cup. TJ and I are expecting an absolute banger tonight between England and the US, though honestly my heart was already broken by that 2-0 Japan-Germany game. Die Mannschaft has never really recovered since 2018 My expectations were about floor height but I guess it is true you can always be more disappointed than before. And earlier today, Wales gave us the first red card v. Iran when their goalkeeper got sent off, RIP...
  11. Kasimir
    One of the Honorblades had gone missing, the bearer slain. Kvaseth-son-Wysan rested his head against the cold clay of the wall and thought furiously. The Tukari were clearly in Earthern Truth, hunting. Last night, he had dispatched a message-hawk to Esaan, informing her of the Council's decision. One that no doubt bore the marks of Vartan on it. Only Vartan could have urged a plan of such blinding arrogance. Shut down Earthern Truth. Lure the Tukari out, as the Tukari stalked the Honorblades. You did not stake it all on the treasures of the Heralds. Nin-son-God had charged the Shin with guarding them. It was dereliction of duty to bait the Tukari with them, no matter how tempting. And how many would be killed, before the end? Lives that mattered. Lives that the High Council could save, if Vartan had bothered to listen. But no one did. But Vartan had sneered, "Know your place, warrior." "I represent Esaan in this matter," Kvaseth had said. But it didn't matter, he knew. He had taken up the sword; he had gone from caring for the land, from tending to the grapes in his care and making fine wine to killing, and the moment you first took up the sword, you were lost in the eyes of his people. One who subtracts. He tugged the hood of his brown cloak deeper over his face. No one seemed interested in stopping the killings. He bit back the anger, the reflexive despair. It did not matter. He waited for the message-hawk to return from Esaan, grabbed the hilt of his sword and rotated it slightly, ready for the draw. He remembered the first time he had killed, before they had made him take the stone. Before they had sent him to the monastery to learn the art of the blade properly. Perhaps it didn't matter, even if Esaan agreed with them. He did not think she would. Many more would die, before the Tukari were stopped. People who didn't deserve to die. Helpless people. Good people. Kvaseth wasn't going to let that happen.
  12. Kasimir
    Why? What are your thoughts on everyone who voted for you? Why? And why do you feel the need to expressly tell us it is subject to change when these things should be subject to change anyway? (I don't take the last as a point you're Evil, but uh...) Edited to add: On re-reading: No, I think here's the thing: Here's the sequence of events: 1. Araris flags Xino's tie vote as odd. Nevermind that Araris clearly wasn't paying attention. Separate issue. Though I honestly want to know how this got read as self-pres. I assume this is where the E!Araris comment from Stick comes in. 2. I like this premise. I'll happily vote Xino for playing to the VC not their suspicions I think the only reasonable way to read this is an offer from Archer to vote Xino. 3. Sure thing boss. Bookwyrm, Xino My feelings are a bit mixed on Xino, but that doesn't mean I'm not happy to vote him out today. Araris takes the offer and moves, pinging Archer back my responding to him. Presumably reads this as an offer to start a CW and is agreeable. I sort of feel that in an E!Bookwyrm world, one of <Araris, Archer> is likely E. My first read of this was Archer soliciting Araris off a train, and I still lean towards it, but believe it can also be read as E!Araris jumping at the chance to go off-train. I am not sure how much I buy that because I feel E!Araris had other trains he could plausibly switch to, but hey, opportunism right? And a ready-made two-vote CW there, which would tie Bookwyrm and Xino if Archer did indeed join. P.S. Very entertained by that 'jelly Araris?' Ancient Evil talking to Old Evil :eyes: 4. Archer doesn't join and Araris asks about that. Archer says this N1: So yeah, I guess I will reconsider E!Archer and E!Araris, but since this is fundamentally E!Bookwyrm dependent, in a world where I'm looking at this chain would more or less require me to flip Bookwyrm first. Which...is a can of worms, sigh.
  13. Kasimir
    I can have a sincerely-held belief that the moon is made of blue cheese. It could be very sincere, but it could also be very wrong. I would find your tie-chasing for informational grounds suspect, and I sort of do, but I also think it is a sincerely-held belief, just very wrong. I would expect E!Szeth to use that as an excuse to vote (though that does raise the question: why, when there are really other reasons to do it? Self-conscious anchoring on a bad train? No idea. But doesn't ring too right to me.) Let's take your reasoning to the natural conclusion. Ok, suppose you got your tie. How does it help us? Do we then commit to flipping all the CWs? What happens if all the CWs are Village? If we automatically commit to flipping all the CWs in a braindead way, we guarantee three to four MLs in total. If you are Village, you will probably also be MLed, leaving the Elims a nice chunk of time in which to exist without coming under pressure or having to do significant work to appear Village. Sure, we don't know that all the CWs are Village. But it's precisely because we don't know if all the CWs are Village that V!you has to think and plan for that contingency. How does it generate more info? Elk, you, Cash, Alv all claim to be voting for a tie, that's it. So do we commit to flipping all of you? An Elim can say that just as well as a Villager. How does it generate information for us? How does the commitment to a tie or the tie itself generate 'lots of information' for us, as you contend? It just creates a drektonne of noise that Villagers have to sort through, and potentially waste our time on in the hopes of getting actionable information out of it. Made even worse because Chana preferred to create PMs rather than flip a CW, which...I get it, and I believe in V!Chana right now, but it is a tough pill to swallow when we have to re-litigate a fairly uninformative D1 due to too many people chasing ties and too many CWs. I also point out that if you don't believe all the CWs are Village, you have to answer: -Why you then didn't vote on the CW you believe wasn't Village -How you can justify believing not all the CWs are Village when literally you and every single late voter claimed not to be saving someone but to be 'preserving the tie' -How you expect a Villager to then tell the difference without having to go through a chain of MLs. Fundamentally, too, creating ties isn't itself informative if no one does the analytical work of going through the past cycle. It's an easy, low-effort way to hide under the radar by just saying "Oh look I created a tie, more information is great, I helped the Village!" Doing so isn't necessarily pro-Village and it's especially cheap if the player themselves isn't invested in trying to make sense of it. There are ways to generate information. What we got isn't it. I can agree that I think your belief that what you were doing was good for the Village was sincerely-held. But I strongly disagree that it helped the Village, so I think it is 'very wrong.' Thanks for explaining. Thanks for explaining to me. I work best off people, so yes, it is screamingly frustrating to not have anyone willing to bounce off while trying to make sense of the past cycle but life's like that. Why SE when you can watch Brazil slice up Serbia with those two sweet Richarlison goals at the World Cup? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ So yeah I geddit. So you...suspect him for reasons you don't actually recall, but that you are also wary of? >> What. At least where purity is concerned, I'd defer to you. You IDed E!Gorilla pretty early, while Szeth talked me into Village reading him and trying to save him on D2 of AG8, which is why I'm still willing to pressure Szeth despite feeling that his beliefs were sincere, just wrong. Thank you for explaining it. I'm probably still sold on the set I mentioned, which maybe isn't a good thing. As a brief summary of where I'm at: Dislike Bookwyrm's vote on Mat - felt crafted to deflect accusations that he was bandwagoning and opportunistic. Do sort of feel alright with Bookwyrm's retraction off Mat, and am not sure that's what E!Bookwyrm does, but at the same time...eh. Don't disagree with Stick it's odd that Bookwyrm didn't so much as self-pres. Not comfortable with the way the Bookwyrm train simply dissolved on its own. Elk and Xino jumping on and off in close succession to the same side-train feels weird. Archer is connected to both ways the train dissolved, by inducing Araris into a solo-vote on Xino, and as the train-starter for Wiz, which Xino and Elk subsequently join. Doesn't feel like a competition issue but a disinterest issue. Fact that both Araris and Stick feel strongly in opposite ways about Bookwyrm feels weird to me when he's functionally still a null, maybe a null- for me. I don't understand where this clarity comes from. Dislike Xino's vote hopping. Can't see much of a reason for it, and seems to indicate more disengagement with the game than Die Mannschaft in that match against Japan. Do not disagree with Stick's Elk issues and difficulty committing to Bookwyrm. Ultimately just feel that Elk has a tendency to train park and the tie seeking doesn't seem to make sense. Also not fond of that double train still. That being said, I have a hard time seeing E!Elk showboating with the ties towards the end, or that Bookwyrm vote. Does indicate a certain indifference to all three in the ties, I suppose. Which makes it weirder if you theorise Elk's reluctance to just commit to Bookwyrm is E/E. Sure, Bookwyrm is LHF but given that at least three people voted Bookwyrm and more expressed suspicion of Bookwyrm, what's the issue? Do feel Szeth was sincerely very wrong on tie-chasing; also feel Szeth's vote did in fact end up on Wiz contra-Bookwyrm but I am not sure that a Szeth/Bookwyrm team makes sense here, so it'd be E!Szeth / V!Bookwyrm. The world in which I can most see that team work would need one of <Stick, Alv, Elk> to be Evil too, and Stick is the only reasonable option as a three-way Bookwyrm/Wiz/Szeth tie is a losing proposition for the Elims. Dislike Archer's starting Wiz vote, solicitation, and connection to the dissolution of the Bookwyrm train. This feels like a thread to pull if Bookwyrm flips E. Do feel Turtle's performativeness sticks out to me, but I also want to take a look at the vote states again, and Turtle's N1 thoughts. Especially if all three trains are clean, Chantara, Silho, Cash and Insanity all radiate Elim dgaf energy and are worth looking at. Less sure about what to make of Elk in that world, due to Elk's noted Bookwyrm reluctance. Think showboating is not completely out of Elk's MO. Stick does come off looking good if so I think. But not as sure of that judgement - fully expecting to get blindsided by metascrewing at some point. No strong Araris read at the moment. In retrospect, I am not so sure being willing to vote Bookwyrm is a good look for Araris - it's Araris being Araris, given his D1 views. Waiting and seeing. Still willing to Village read Mat, not very comfortable with no sense of where Mat is this cycle, nor with that exchange with Araris. Jury is out on TUN, JNV. Slightly tempted to V!read Alv but I have no real decent basis for this, so I'm going to ignore it and keep him in the grey zone for now.
  14. Kasimir
    Ok, so what are they...? Like seriously, dude. Are you busy? Is it like pulling teeth? Is there a reason y'all just don't want to? For real, what is this? Edited to add: I don't expect everyone to be as active as they were in D1 or to be omnipresent in the thread but I'm extremely thrown by how quiet and low temperature the thread is. Either the Elims are extremely comfortable or no one actually cares, given the state of the votes, and I'm happy to make it an inclusive or right now. I don't really know why I'm bothering to try to get this fricking exe right when it seems no one else is interested in trying to make sense of D1 or N1. If it's a NA holiday thing, someone please explain this to my confused Asian soul. Lynch me if you all want. I'm done. I'm going to catch up on the Brazil match.
  15. Kasimir
    I mean, that's also sort of dependent on your player meta, so as to speak. But I say this as a player with a history of dgaf self-voting so there's that. Like, you have your meta and you and Archer always consider self-votes illogical and not to do them, Maili and I have ours. But that's a side-issue. If you point out that's the biggest thing, then are you implying you have no other reasons to read Szeth as sus prior to that? I know you've said you want to flip one of the CWs. Frankly, it's a <me, Szeth, Bookwyrm> choice then, and you're hesitating on Bookwyrm (which understandable, I kind of am as I don't like the train disintegration.) Edited to add: When I say Szeth's tone is pure, I'm referring to Szeth seeking a tie for informational reasons, as I mentioned I think N1. It still reads sincere to me, just sincerely very wrong. But again, Szeth still doubled down on a tie despite being called on it, and voted Wiz over Bookwyrm, which in my view is a Voting Choice and a half and if you focus on votes, then that's a movement I dislike.
  16. Kasimir
    Mind walking me through them again, of your courtesy? I'm moderately okay with voting one of the two CWs but I have to admit Szeth's tone feels pure to me. That being said, I also still do not like the train his self-pres ended up on, and the tie-seeking could go either way. But I also admit I would never have caught Gorilla if not for that PM, so I could just be really wrong here. Edited to add: Can the Americans explain to me if this is normal for Thanksgiving season? We don't have the holiday here (no drek) so I'm seriously wondering about/concerned at the thread death, and at least moderately of the view I'm better off spending my time catching up with the World Cup at this rate.
  17. Kasimir
    Probably, yes. ? Szeth Xino I really need to do RP. But same reason as Elk: I don't like the vote-hopping/jumping, it was early in the game to do it, and I think that reflects a certain disengagement from the cycle I haven't seen in Xino's last two Village games.
  18. Kasimir
  19. Kasimir
    Right. Something I've found - I take back what I said last cycle about the low info kill meta being a thing. It turns out that if you are bloody-minded enough to go through a drektonne of recent SE games and categorise N1/C1/closest analogue kill MOs and curse silently at Elim teams who don't have the decency to explain their kill MOs, these are the results you get: Methodology: To be clear, the data begins from LG83. This is slightly arbitrary, but I discarded MR56 as the start point due to the problems with working out the arson targets. I then also just went through every game from LG83 onwards through to BT3. Where a game had bad data or the kill MO could not be discerned, it was marked as N/A for MO. I tagged a game multiple times if different MOs appeared simultaneously, using the given thought processes of the Elims in most cases to tag the game. In Summary: Tagged Data: Think it's worth noting though that LG82 also featured an Illwei N1, and an Araris/Mage/Sart team. Araris called the Illwei kill that game, mostly for tactical reasons - either to implicate Illwei if she survived via a WGG or to confuse the Village via an off-meta kill: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Presume you're meaning because it is an isolated train. Kill decisions are usually made as a team, aren't they? And her most recent pair of reads were E!Tani and E!Szeth. The part I'm having trouble answering is Stick asking why Bookwyrm didn't at least self-pres but just unvoted and left. Looking at the votes, and I'm sure you can do that yourself as well since your analysis will probably differ from mine, there's just one point where Bookwyrm is under major threat and that's when Xino and Elk stack onto him very close together, bringing him up to five votes. Xino hops onto Bookwyrm, as Araris subsequently notes, with nearly 36 hours left in the cycle. On N1, Xino explains this as desiring to form a tie between you and Bookwyrm. He doesn't have further explanation for this tie-chasing. Three minutes later, Araris calls out Xino's move to Bookwyrm. A minute after Araris's callout, Elk votes Bookwyrm as well, and then edits in an acknowledgement of Araris's point, but decides: Sixteen minutes after Elk, Xino abandons commitment to the tie and swaps to Wiz in order to put pressure on Wiz (again, explained N1.) Admittedly, the tie was dead by then, but that's a fairly fast pullout. Two minutes after Xino pulls out, Elk pulls off as well to go vote for Wiz as well and make a tie to summon Alv. Leaving the Elk issue aside, the stable voters on Bookwyrm are JNV (didn't show up subsequently that I can find, and the last login data is no good by now), and Wiz, who we now know is Village. Araris would later switch off. It doesn't 'feel' like Bookwyrm badly needed to be saved: most of the time, voters just organically hopped off. Or weirdly hopped off, in the case of the Xino-Elk doublesynch. (FWIW Araris rubberband hopping back onto Bookwyrm at least makes it unlikely they're teamed unless he was gambling hard on an Alv tie at the end and willing to roll the dice.) You could argue the movement to save E!Bookwyrm happened on alternative trains, but Araris actively endangers Bookwyrm again at EoD. You're the one who saves Bookwyrm by moving off onto Szeth and you know your own alignment. Szeth, Stick, Alv, Elk all do vote in that major tie mess at EoD but the way Alv and Elk were voting to ensure a tie makes me feel like they didn't particularly care about which of Bookwyrm or Wiz stayed alive. Stick was probably the only one who was openly invested in saving Bookwyrm. Szeth pointedly self-preses on Wiz over Bookwyrm, though I have to question that an Elim team could so dangerously play C1 to the point two of their members were in danger near the end. Not impossible, but odd. I guess the short is I'm not sure either, and signals are muffled a lot in the noise of tie-chasing, and the Village has been known to lose interest, but I feel as though the Bookwyrm train dissolved organically - Xino and Elk hop off within the hour, and both shift to form a train by piggybacking onto Archer's pre-existing vote on Wiz. And there's nothing that really makes sense of that shift; Xino gets called out on his Bookwyrm vote by Araris and hopping to Wiz is seemingly his reaction. Elk just joins him because why the hell not, make a tie and summon Alv apparently. (Which is where I'm sympathetic to Stick's gripes.) And then Araris gets induced off by Archer replying to his calling Xino out and saying he (Archer) could get behind a Xino vote. @Araris Valerian, what's behind your move off Bookwyrm and onto Xino, and then back to Bookwyrm again at EoD? I don't rule out in an E!Bookwyrm world that there are Elims driving alternate trains. I just think that it's odd that most of the movement is on the train and then off again.
  20. Kasimir
    Yeah, but I just want to hear it from her and to make sense of it. Tani was really obviously V in that game, so I firmly believe that interacting with V!Tani should yield fairly clear results in this game. Not to sheep Illwei too hard, but if Illwei was suspicious of Tani, I at least want to probe, even if my direct suspicions are more in the <Elk, Szeth, Bookwyrm> set with a side of <Archer, Xino> for the moment. And probably some questions of Cash as well and I need to go over the odd votes I flagged in my notes... Either way, it's D2. I don't want to foreclose any lines of inquiry, especially this early ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
  21. Kasimir
    I know you're not. But my point is that it's salient to Tani as it was a major factor in a game she played. Why auto-jump to suspicion of you? What's her train of thought?
  22. Kasimir
    Baker gambit - he sussed me to try to keep me alive since he felt I was an obvious Village read. I think...you mentioned an inadvertent Baker a couple of games ago. Look, I mention it because: Like, I confess it could be because I have a decent memory for things that happen in SE games, but I'd felt it was odd that Tani E!reads you for something she basically V!read Baker for, though to be fair, she had other reasons to V!read Baker that game. But I think you get my point - the point being that two Villagers can disagree about how to read each other for a variety of reasons, and this was directly relevant to Tani because this put her in between the Village and Baker for a bit, so there's some element of "Ok maybe you haven't played in a while" but also "Really? Do you not actually remember this?" going on. In short, I'm just trying to work out Tani's mindset/thought process here, really.
  23. Kasimir
    Yeah, I definitely see it as suspicious - see my N1, for instance. But I'm more curious if your Elk E credences are affected by your V!Bookwyrm credences, because they definitely don't really seem E/E to me and I'd kind of agree: that's a whole lot of reckless endangerment from Elk otherwise in late EoD, and Elk of all players should know that Alv would act to enforce a tie. Yeah, that's fair. I was trying to work out if you believed Szeth to be viable at EoD when you voted Wiz, more or less, given all the chaos from Elk and Alv hopping everywhere. Put it this way. It's possible, though I don't know if Illwei is that careless in PMs. I should also note that I know of one PM, so there might definitely be more. Something that does come to mind though is that Chana looks more V to me now. (Yes, I know, likely assumption, but also, Beagle.) E!Chana has absolutely no reason not to kill at Night and just sell it as vig action. I refuse to believe that at least half the trains weren't clean given that it was a rapidly-shifting three-to-four-way tie (I guess it could just be 1/4 the trains, but again, would entail significant Elim risk appetite), and I know of at least one Villager who was a CW close to EoD that Chana could reasonably have stabbed without recrimination. Two Villagers, if you believe Bookwyrm is V. Edited to add: Your Rose Empire buddy in LG84? Both of you worked with the rest of us at endgame to help us find JNV, the last Elim, and then we won that thing after a near-sweep
  24. Kasimir
    Question for you: Did you consider Mat might be pulling a Baker? Also:
  25. Kasimir
    K. First thing first, Shaman should keep an eye out on any changes in the list, especially if there's a new player that shows up on it, or a player who acquires a second Blade. I don't consider Honorblade passing to have been likely at least Village-side, so minimally: keep an eye out for changes. If I'm understanding the rules correctly, you can't tell whether it's the killer or someone who randomly acquired the Blade when the killer declined to, so use your best judgement, but good to keep a weather eye out. Right. Not the NKA guy (hi Ash >>) but: Illwei is an odd kill target but also not. More or less uncontested Village, and an analytical powerhouse. Odd because this is a N1 high profile kill, which is not exactly meta. (Note to self here: go look up N1 kill decisions for the last couple games.) Mildly relieved I committed not to overthink Illwei. Possible fear kill? Illwei just came off a banner game in LG90. Well, the plausible reasons I could see at this stage: (1) control kill, (2) fear kill, (3) suspicion kill, i.e. Illwei had mentioned one of them as a suspicion. (1) If we think control kill, probably somewhere in the ballpark of: <Kas, Mat, maaaaybe Stick, Alv, Elk, Archer, JNV.> Happy to hear objections if you think I am incorrectly characterising your kill meta. I sure know I didn't do it, and I V!read Mat so am not going there. Lightly V read JNV though I don't have that much to go off, so I can leave them asterisked in the pool if need be. This gives me a <Stick, Alv, Elk, Archer, JNV> pool. Tentatively, very slightly lean towards the Stick/Elk/Archer end of the pool. I accept I probably am not reading Alv right, or maybe this is coloured by my wanting him to be Village so I am happy to hear about why I am mistaken on this score. I'll commit to checking their NK kill decisions after classes tonight. Or World Cup. Whichever. (2) If we think fear kill... Theoretically: Let's copy the entire list out first. <Turtle, Araris, TUN, Mat, JNV, Bookwyrm, Silho, Xino, Kas, Insanity, Chantara, Stick, Cash, Archer, Alv, Tani, Elk, Szeth.> Taking out people who would probably not D1 fearkill Illwei qua Illwei: <Turtle, Araris, TUN, Mat, JNV, Bookwyrm, Silho, Xino, Kas, Insanity, Chantara, Stick, Cash, Archer, Alv, Tani, Elk, Szeth.> (3) Suspicions-wise, we're looking at the set of: <Tani, Szeth, Turtle, Alv, Silho.> IMO, more likely to be <Tani, Szeth, Alv, Turtle>, with Illwei questioning Turtle N1, so italicised since that isn't outright suspicion. I think most of Illwei's D1 is not direct, outright sus and the most prominent would've been Alv, and then the mention of E!Tani and E!Szeth on N1. Not too much commonalities except via Turtle (questionable), Silho, and JNV (also italicised.) Sigh please don't judge me too hard Ash I'm trying my best :/ @_Stick_ - Do not disagree with this one, but want to ask if your view is informed in part by your V!read of Bookwyrm, as I notice part of your case is functionally based off Elk sussing Bookwyrm but then not pursuing it aggressively. Going to go onto Szeth for the moment. I accept it could be a run of bad luck, but Szeth performing a self-presing tie onto a (now) known Villager despite the flak Bookwyrm was drawing is something that doesn't look quite right IMO. Edited to add: @_Stick_, for that matter, what's behind your last minute Wiz vote? I figured you planned to break the tie, but what was going through your head at that point?
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