Kasimir

Now you do, thanks for GMing!

I don't actually care except that it's over. @Amanuensis, @Haelbarde - Sorry dozed off while waiting for Hael to get back on the games, but in my defence, it was maybe 8 or 9AM and I hadn't slept yet. ggwp Elims This more or less sums up my thoughts, where they differ I'm just too tired to edit them I had fun but the last two cycles were brutal. I think I was mentioning in one of my DMs that I had strong QF62 vibes because it felt like we were just rethinking what was supposed to be commonsensical, obvious clears. Edited to add: Clearly I should've listened to C2 Kas, even though C2 Kas V!read Hael off the assumption Hael was Winzik, and was replying to Stick, so V!read Stick. Edited to add 2: @Szeth_Pancakes - Btw, your dead doc isn't locked. Not sure about your other docs, but you should check before people accidentally edit it.

I retract any complaint Illwei and I had about the LG91 endgame.

Not gonna lie, half my beef with the last few cycles is the fact we're playing on the assumption that this game is so different that we have to suspend the usual operating assumptions of a SE game, and that doesn't really make me happy. Who do you consider to be TUN's partner, would be my question. You say one or two Elims - I presume you're not committed to a two Elim team. I'm cynical enough to believe that there are probably two to three more left because the Village gods are never that kind. Yeah, that was my thought, hence my mention you probably do this anyway. I'm specifically arguing, for reference, that the follow data seems to me more the sort of thing you would track to add into a big data profile of an IC candidate, as compared to finding an Elim, rather than that big data is itself suspicious, as your paragraph seems to be implying. Which: Ok. Do you have an Elim game of yours you would recommend I look at. I know it's dated, I don't really care, at this point, I just want a baseline. Any baseline that's not MR61 because you died really fast there. Unlikely to be a bus.

@Amanuensis There is a chance I've hardlocked/biased myself into V!Stick but the re-read just entrenches V!Stick for me in multiple ways, some of which I've posted about. I wouldn't agree with a shot at Insanity or Almond - I feel both of them right now would be desperation votes and while I feel desperate, I don't think a good vote looks there until the Elim calling the shots is found. Some of Bookwyrm's posts still feel a bit off to me, but I also like Bookwyrm's responses, as I've mentioned multiple times in the thread. Sure, I could idly consider an E!you world, but I've found a few points I like in favour of V!Aman, even if I hadn't also indicated I am not interested in seriously entertaining that possibility. PoE takes me generally to a TUN v. Hael decision. That tipped me towards Hael. Edited to add: Tell me about it...Failing which, mercy kill please... I don't want to beat my exhausted brain into yet another round of this... It's like playing pin-the-tail-on-the-donkey. In the utter dark. But the floor is lava. And there's coriander.

Part of me believes Hael does this no matter what. Part of me remembered the extensive Jedi tracker including posts, activity count, and so on in the Sith doc in MR61 that Hael did. And this nudged me just a bit over the balance of indecision because that feels like the sort of thing you do more naturally when you hunt IC, not when you hunt Elims. Like...why would you be checking the follow data?

Sigh. Hael. Vod, meh gar Mando'ad, ni gra'tua.

Hael: Pre-ISO, meh on Silver, intended to join Stick on TUN: I....don't disagree but that feels like a bunch of LHF choices minus Silver. Not sure about TUN. Tbh the reason I flagged it was that it made that quiet nagging voice in my head give you a Village point anyway That and one or two other junctures in my notes. Just for completeness' sake I suppose. Though my pool seems to be functionally <Hael, TUN> at this juncture, maybe Bookwyrm if I give in to the fact some of his posts rub me the wrong way despite my read ._. I'm aware it's not likely to shift where the thread wants to go and I'm not approaching it from this perspective this time. Just want to give it my best shot at making sense of this. Edited to add: Sort of like this, tbh. Regardless of alignment I guess. Edited to add 2: C4 - TUN breaks a 2/2 between him and Nerdy to vote Nerdy. Self-explanatory but hmm. Bookwyrm stacks onto Nerdy subsequently, making it 4/2. If somehow our team is Bookwyrm/Silver/TUN imma just...

If it's a two-man team, it's probably a three-man IC in which case we're screwed the moment Winzik dies... (JNV and Devo both referenced numbers that didn't significantly differ C1. I imagine they must have salted it, but still...) And if Stick is right about Xino being an activity kill... Then we hope real hard Winzik had the sense to feign inactivity because otherwise we're basically very quickly screwed :| Edited to add: Sigh. I don't substantively disagree with this. This is the kill pattern problem again I think. People who didn't notice: <Aman, Hael, Kas, Mat> Asterisked for Hael due to his noticing earlier then getting lost with everyone who calculated it was a tie. Not sure E!Hael thinks to make this mistake? Bah. So much secondguessing this game ;-;

You don't. You do vote them. But you don't cast killing votes in isolation. You can cast query votes in isolation but your reads are always based on everything else put together. Some of my worst reads are when I focus on one aspect of the player and neglect the entire body of evidence - it's fine when you're pressuring them and wanting to get more info from the thread, less fine when you are making the call. Sure, tone isn't always accurate, but nothing in a game is 100% accurate except for a confirmed Village Seeker role. It's like how Villagers vote for and defend Elims - Mat did that too. I probably have at least once during the course of this game. You might as well generalise the question: how do you tell the difference between an Elim and a Villager making a mistake/playing deliberately spicy? It's the same fundamental question that drives this game. It doesn't detract from the strategic value of doing so, and is basically same problem different skin for the Village, and does mean it is difficult to play. It's like when you're a Tyrian V!Seeker, right? If you're too accurate and too swift to vote the guy the contact will eventually reveal as Evil, or if your sus/trusts map too well/pre-empt the scans, then you're going to be in hot soup. It's a very thin line to finesse. Your theory basically says he voted in order to induce ties - my point is it'd take an incredible amount of faith for him to believe the tie would persist, given the majority of the times he voted at. Whether or not the ties were broken in the literal last minutes does not matter - the last I checked, Hael doesn't have foresight. We're only asking: why does an Elim trying to bait Winzik vote so early on (except on C2) when there is little chance the tie will remain that way? That's ineffective for a bait. Your response is that he was on at EoD. My response is yes, and so were others - TUN has consistently lurked at EoD. You can argue that TUN didn't vote for ties. Sure, but then we're back to my point: not only do we then have to explain why a baiting vote comes so early, but we also have to explain how he imagines he would not look sus as hell for forcing a last minute tie, especially if a Villager flips, especially if Winzik acts, (remember, past C2, Silver is dead! Does E!Hael have a teammate left who can actively carry the team to victory by sacrificing him here?) and how he imagines Winzik would see and act when a significant number of the ...lynchees? Ye god what is the term even - were basically not present, and he could probably see that even at the time of his vote, e.g. Xino, Nerdy, Fifth. Why would he realistically expect Winzik to respond then? He voted to cause a tie right in the middle of Fifth jumping trains like an Ataru stylist, you being present, Aman voting Nerdy, my voting Nerdy and screaming about having five minutes to get my vote right. If he votes and causes a last minute tie at EoD, righting things, then Winzik would also not have time to react. And he would know one player would flip Village, making his actions incredibly suspicious. It just doesn't seem very effective a play to me. I think I'd be more willing to buy it in a world where Mat was one of the players in the tie. I say this even as at this point of the re-read, I'm sold on V!Stick meaning my PoE shrinks to <Hael, TUN>... Lemme flip your question around, Stick. Odds that at least one Elim is on at rollover each cycle to watch for all players online in case they can ID Winzik? I have reached the infamous Stick post: In retrospect, I think I am okay with my Village read on Stick; this is stronger language than I remembered when I was talking to Mat. Here, Stick isn't pulling any punches. This isn't distancing language. This is either: bussing language (in which case, I don't see why Stick wouldn't have voted Silver, or Silver wouldn't have shown up for the threadbrawl), or just genuine.

I don't think I have a standing vote at all at present. But I could be wrong. God knows I've just hit C2.

Really? In a game where if you have a strong sense that a player is IC and you are a Villager, actively voicing this gets them NKed? In a game where painting a player you don't actually suspect with some sus could very well keep them alive - especially if they're your wincon? Edited to add: TBH the more I argue with TUN the more I feel he's Village, and that worries me. I do feel E!TUN tends to be somewhat - detached. Edited to add 2: Ngl if I were Winzik and on at EoD, I'd totally have put that extra vote as you requested at EoD. Trolling potential here is too damned high.

I'm looking at the average size of trains across cycles. C1 was 6-3, with the train Hael was on being 6. C2 was the infamous 5-3. C3 was 5-4. C4 was also 5-4. We've clumped a lot. But I'm also interested in how you account for the timing of Hael's votes in your theory - apart from C2, most of them came reasonably early such that you wouldn't expect the thread to remain stagnant. C3 is a borderline case but given C2 EoD, I think only a fool would believe beforehand that the votes would be stable.

A...five-player-sized pool? Almost 1/3 the players in this game? @Haelbarde I may have asked this before. Why is TUN an explicit mention for you and not the rest of your Baddish tier? Reads enclosed for reference: I really don't understand how you don't understand that you can in fact underplay your suspicions, fail to mention them, deliberately sow some misinformation about your thoughts in the IC doc, refuse to show your full hand in the thread. It's an anon doc, and the fact you're typing makes you confirmed Village so no one is going to sus you for it. Edited to add: Truly very effective Winzik bait. No one will ever dare to post past...1141hrs, 1223hrs, and 0749hrs SGT! For reference, rollover is at 1300hrs SGT.

Why would you, as Winz, be upfront about your suspects/thoughts anyway? The point is that if you do it, you are basically banning yourself from using VM. The reasonable belief would be that anyone on the opposing train has used it, and given the size of the trains thus far, that's not actually insane. Winz is perfectly capable of making reads based on the thread.

Of course there's no way they don't save themselves - I'm asking why it's indicative that the beneficiary must be Winz. RIP bhai

Why not vote Silver for opportunism at that juncture? Why does doing so reveal themselves? Edited to add: Potentially good looks for <Stick, Bookwyrm.> Doubt that the Elims want to consciously stack on the Danex train.

But why does it make you more confident when every vote sans Silver is literally a tie between two Villagers? E!Hael should arguably be indifferent. The one case I see it mattering is tying Silver and Nerdy, and there we have the counterintuitive result of Hael re-introducing Silver into the voting pool instead. If tying Nerdy and Silver is in and of itself a sus action, isn't that what Stick did as well? (I am aware I am going in circles, but I did not like this argument, and forgot to reply to it when I got distracted.) @_Stick_ And Stick, if you see this: why unvote Danex in response to Silver? I remember you've mentioned it, but there's a lot of thread left to read through, RIP.

Learned the hard way from MR56 that the problem with total rereads and wanting to only post when you're done is that you lock yourself out of the thread for quite a bit. In that spirit: (1) Hael's on TUN and engagement: Unsure if this is distancing or genuine news to him. The second quote makes me not want to hold the reactivity point as much against him. (2) Silver's single post: Has anyone actively tried to read Silver's single post after he flipped? I know Stick and I went through it pre-flip. Just to be sure: am I completely misunderstanding this post, or is Kas clearing people (Aman Fifth Almond) who hadn't posted yet? That's all for now and will likely be all for today. I'd have liked to wait even a bit more a bit to fully make up my mind on people I mentioned above, but since it's midnight for me I'm signing off now and I'll leave an hesitant vote on dannnex because I think as far as I can trust a D1 read (ie not much) he's still the most suspicious of the ones here Btw thanks JNV for the quokkas Silver's vote on Danex is purely on the basis of his being concerned with the size of the IC. He mentions my argument on Danex's meta and then completely discards it. Let's look at who else Silver talks about: Stick, me, Aman, TUN. IDK if Silver is the kind of guy to get in some distancing: the fact he has a slight Elim lean on Stick is interesting. IDK why Aman is even in the picture. Discarding that. He has inconsistency about me: he references me a bunch of times but also tries to sus me. What interests me more though is the bit I've highlighted in orange. If you think that Danex's interest in the size of the IC is Elim indicative, why are you silent on TUN's opening post which explicitly invited IC size discussion, as Stick pointed out? Shouldn't you be even mildly concerned about it? Edited to add: Apologies, post reference here:

Surfacing for thoughts - feels like a somewhat positive point for Stick. On the one hand, part of me wonders about a TUN/Stick team. But I feel it overall is a good look at Stick just outright admits to having V!read TUN on the basis of his meta prior to checking his playhistory, i.e. on the basis of her impression. Feels like E!Stick would've been a bit more careful negotiating that.

There's a reason she's in my nulls, tbh. I picked up on her confusion and felt it was a positive, but in the darkness of this game, don't feel confident in boosting her too high just on that basis. At some point, it feels like I'm overreaching to build a whole read on the few posts she does make, and I don't feel sure enough of it. I guess I feel it's a bit more plausible to me that a first time Elim in a crowded thread could react authentically about being lost. I don't think it's likely, which is why she's a null and my pre-reread tiers favour TUN and Almond first - and even Almond I acknowledge is a shot in the dark, realistically speaking, off vague kill-profile thoughts. She's not my first candidate for a shot this cycle.

Nothing in particular? It's been a long time since someone did that, I think Hael mentions he does, and I recall this causing some issue for some Elim in LG3. Not seeing it as particularly AI.

You will vote who you see fit. I am rereading right now. I do not know if I am going to die today (please?) I do not know if I am going to die tomorrow. I do not know if I am going to die at all at this rate >> But Fifth is reading this thread and judging, and I need to be able to look him in the eye when I die in the dead doc and say "Sorry bro I did my best." I am not committing to a karking vote before I finish the reread!

In principle, I don't strongly object, as the guy who's been pushing TUN. That being said, I think I owe it to the dead to do my best not to screw us over (sorry QF63 Village...) I'm going to list my current thoughts and then do a massive re-read and compare. If, at the end of the final re-read, I can honestly say I feel TUN is the best vote for me to make, I will do it. Stick has also pointed out my being alive definitely isn't too coherent with TUN's kill meta, so there's that as well. Just to square it with my conscience, I suppose. If I need to break any vote volatility by voting TUN, we'll cross that bridge when we get to it. @The Bookwyrm - You mentioned last game you and Insanity are friends. Do you have a read on her, right here, and right now? Current State of Reads: Village I Guess? [=Moderate Village] Sort of Village? [=Light Village] Village Maybe? [=Null+] Why Do My Tiers Have So Many Questions? [=Null] Spy Maybe? [=Null-] Thank you, appreciated. I'll be cheering you guys on from the dead doc! @_Stick_ Tbqh if you want to test your tinfoil, this is the time to do it.

Big brain strat there, Winzik :eyes: That was my thoughts for an E!Stick world, or trying to make sense of it. It doesn't really feel like a major losing strategy - if Nerdy flips, Silver lives another day but you're also on a CW to a flipped Villager, while attention goes to the last minute Nerdy switch, possibly even the you CW (cf. Hael's theorising.) And yeah, aware my vote is in reserve right now. I'm dubious it's actively useful at this point anymore, though the Sacred Coin is telling me to vote Stick between Hael and Stick ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Ngl Book, I appreciate your optimism but I kinda think if Hael and TUN both come up clean, we'll already have lost. Eight players now: I refuse to believe that with a total of four more deaths (unless Hael and TUN die in the same cycle), we'll still be at this. No, I don't really think that's unsatisfying, what I find confusing is that you felt much more strongly about Xino than the other votes you took part in, that's about it. So much of your comments on your votes has been some variant of "I'm following the crowd, this is what everyone else thinks", such that the fact that you felt that way about Xino and no one else is curious. But the fact that it sticks out doesn't immediately or necessarily make it sus, depending. It's been long enough I'm not sure of his meta anymore. But I would say he would be a player sharp enough to devise snipemaxxing, and the fact you only need one very trustedf player. Whether or not he goes for it is another story. Not sure whether he finds it attractive. That's the question of bussing, yeah. I guess one more thought at the back of my head: given general unwillingness to rethink you, theoretically you could've been killed instead of Mat. It's a formality whether they pick you or Mat. There are two players here I can think of who might, in a choice between you and Mat, make the choice to go for Mat and let you live a while longer. That's me and Hael. I'm not sure about Stick. It would certainly be a choice influenced by history. But I say all of this and still don't want to fully bring myself to believe in an E!Hael world so I guess I'm almost back to TUN all over again. IDK. I guess that's what the thread is for, to just work it out. So I guess I'd ask: why would you put Stick before Hael? With Stick, it's the kill choice and the way she even first brought up Silver that's giving me pause, mostly. I do read that as being strikes against E!Stick. Edited to add: Distancing? IDK. I am willing to give some credence to E!Almond, but E!Almond needs a partner due to Stick's observation. And my commitment to E!Almond is really insofar as my thoughts that our inability to concretely ascribe kill patterns satisfactorily to anyone indicates a hybrid element in there that we don't know about, that and PoE.