Kasimir

I assume this didn't really influence you that much in the end? You did choose to self-pres on Archer rather than DeTess. DeTess/Mat tinfoil gogo In Soviet SE, your lawyer speaks to you :eyes: Bah I sort of like this, it feels kind of pure but at the same time... Ok, I get tired and not thinking. So I take it you kind of sus both DeTess and Mat? Any chance of spelling out what your feelings are about them? What's motivating this view/shift? I can at least definitely see it with how elastic your vote was towards Mat. So if you could make your own train, where would it have been? So which order would you execute them in, and at which point would you stop? No, but this is why the SE gods have never allowed me to be a Coinshot for a very long time. I can't really disagree with this view, yeah. K so for me, I'm trying to compensate a bit because Archer is a bit like Sart for me: half the time I will look at what V!them are doing and go "wtf mates u mad bro?" So I guess my question is: why does Archer look worse to you? I'm trying to figure out if I'm overcompensating, and I think one reason for my bad reads in LG93 was directly taking sus and Elim things and saying "man that's so sus no Elim would do this." I sort of did like the TKN sidetrain and the lack of a smooth recovery - it felt like Archer was genuinely stumped there, and I didn't think E!Archer would've lacked for options. But I'm not confident of this view. I also like the Mat elasticity for the same reason - it feels sincere. I don't know where to stand about her, but I think her conflict with Archer comes from a perspective I think is a tad more Village than Archer's. I also do feel there's a difference in her mode of engagement with the game, for lack of a better word. Also fair. In terms of rough, overall views at this point in time: - Kas (I'm Seraphimon!) - Steel, JNV, TJ - Sart, Aman, Devo, Fae - Illrao, Araris, TKN, <Archer, Mat, DeTess>, Alvron - Alpha Edited to add: Semi-obvious comment but someone has to say it. If Mat flips V!SE, look very carefully at everyone pushing him (yes am aware this has included me at points.) I almost feel the Elims are probably playing the IKYK game right now (have fun ) and will likely seek to resolve him by exe in order to not have to deal with him Lurching. Edited to add 2: After re-reading LG80, MR61, and QF64, I'm willing to downgrade Devo to the tier, with a bit of an asterisk. I feel it could go either way at this point - her Village meta isn't showing clearly enough for me to feel comfortable with the stronger read. (Cf. V!Devo's dgaf versus the more narrow engagement characteristic of E!Devo.)

K few questions before I'm out of it again. If it's a back-readable question, apologies and just indulge me - @Matrim's Dice, if not for Archer, would you have self-pressed on DeTess? - @Archer - you spent a decent chunk of D1 wavering between V!Mat and E!TKN and E!Mat and V!TKN. Why vote on DeTess rather than on Mat? - @DeTess - If you were up at EoD, would you have self-pressed on someone, and who? - @Devotary of Spontaneity - you framed your late vote as posing a choice to Mat, to see who he would self-pres on. Does this mean you were functionally indifferent to which of Mat, Archer, and DeTess died? - @Araris Valerian - Does Archer's late DeTess vote increase or reduce your suspicions of Archer? - @|TJ| - Same overall question as Araris. - @Amanuensis - What do you make of the overall situation? - @The Known Novel - You mentioned you wanted to VitC Archer. Why? I'm trying to understand where your views on Mat have shifted on D1. - @JNV - Thoughts on the EoD? - @Ashbringer - Why DeTess? Overall Thoughts: -I accept that Devo and DeTess think we can't rule out the possibility this was deliberate. Since I'm still alive for now, I'm going to advocate for my view, which is that the votes stayed stable on the Mat/Archer/DeTess triad for quite a while, to the point it built an EoD situation that was otherwise avoidable. With the low thread tempo and lack of urgency, I'm not very keen to believe this was not in fact an outcome the Elims were moderately alright with. -Likely at most one Elim in the three, if at all. Sure, we can postulate worlds in which the Elim team were super channelling Araris-TJ-Wiz. I don't really care to play these games right now because I'm in the business of reducing options, not exploding them. I don't really believe the Mat world chages things too much because Thug >>> Silver Dust where Wrath is concerned, bracketing SE!Mat worlds. SE!Mat worlds IMO increase the point, not decrease it, due to fragility. VC Tracker: At 0152hrs SGT: To be clear, this is after Rollovet. The votes are fairly stable. TKN et al take a stab at Mat but little changes in voting. At 0239hrs SGT: DeTess, Mat, Archer remain tied in the lead. At 0329hrs SGT: Aman breaks the vote in favour of Mat. DeTess and Archer are still close to the lead. Arguably protective of: 1. DeTess, 2. Archer. At 0546hrs: Archer chooses to vote TKN which is...weird. Weird reasoning overall and everyone ??? him about it. I don't really take this to be AI for Archer because V! and E!Archer will occasionally do things out of raw whim. Arguably protective of Mat, since doing this exposes Archer himself to some risk. (If theorising E!Archer, contention here is that Archer never intended to stay on TKN if the train didn't build, IMO.) FWIW I swear Archer has a weird thing for Sart. Everything Sart does, Archer flags and goes "Yes this is Village!" >> Especially weird since Archer as an Elim likes to fake derp clears, cf. the Coinshot issue in AG9. At 0609hrs: @Matrim's Dice why this switch btw Mat switches off DeTess to Archer. Tbh I sort of like that move because I feel Archer's argument was very viscerally wtf to everyone. ? At 0745hrs: Archer acknowledges the screw-up and unvotes TKN. I like this retraction here, actually. I tend to feel E!Archer is more relentless than V!Archer, he's a bit more screwball as V!Archer, though I have to take a quick recheck of some of his E/V games to be able to solidify this impression or not. ? At 0813hrs: Ash votes DeTess. Arguably protective of Archer, though if Ash really wanted to, Mat was a better CW. At 0903hrs: Mat explicitly says he has a MatTunnel on Archer. And I kind of don't feel that great about this, actually. IDK. I'm trying to work out how to feel about it, given I'd flagged Stick's post previously about MatTunnel being a Village sign of Mat. It doesn't feel like it really was a tunnel; it feels like Mat trying to evoke the idea of a tunnel to go "Oh ok see this is my Village meta," given he just got V!read by Stick for having one in the MR. ? No vc change. At 0954hrs: Devo makes a post not wanting to C1 Archer yet again. Also: This is true, but does seem to imply or desire a world in which there's little Elim threat in the votes. (As a necessary precondition.) Depending on what the vote disposition is, this could be a significant claim. I...need to go back and re-read my V!Devo / E!Devo notes, though. I had leaned V!Devo for the dgaf and the - well I'll get to it in a bit. At 1007hrs: Fae self-votes. FWIW I read that as more V!Fae than E!Fae. I think there's a very low bar for E!Fae to be presenteeist, and also kind of think that if Fae really wanted a PH, would be encouraged by team to get one rather than self-vote. Grudging ??? At 1052hrs: TKN getting Evil vibes from that MatTunnel post but not voting is a whole Choice tbh. I would say this was probably what made me stay/order for my vote to go to Mat but that'd be lying as I was just bashing my head into a wall for analysis by EoD and changing votes more than was healthy. At 1114hrs, just sixteen minutes to rollover: Aloha swaps to DeTess. This is arguably a vote that saves Archer, and pads it a bit away from Mat. @TheAlpha929: Why DeTess? You also mentioned evil vibes from Mat - why not switch then? At 1117hrs: Mat stays put on Archer, arguing there is no functional difference between Archer and DeTess for him and both trains feel 'weird.' I'm trying to understand the shift in headspace from: Especially since Mat didn't really care about voting DeTess earlier? Wow am I crossing the floor to E!Mat again >> RIP why. At 1124hrs: I actually tend to read these kinds of posts from Devo as Evil because of the Kira vibes and I often feel they're actually not. E!Devo tends to gerrymander voting more than V!Devo, so I sort of want to give credit at this juncture. At 1128hrs: Mat converses with Devo but doesn't self-pres. Risk tolerance here? Knowledge of Archer's vote? IDK. I don't feel like I have a specific alignment read on this even though I probably should. At the exact same time, Archer votes for DeTess, saving himself and Mat. ...On paper. With the votes this close, I question whether the Elims were wary of a VitC shift here from the Village. I know Orlok and I were. Archer does have absurd risk tolerance, but even so. It's compatible with the E!Mat world but I've made my views amply clear I think. Net result: ??? about Mat, bordering occasional which yeah I'm gonna have to somehow reconcile with my views about Mat's SB. I'll do that later on, after more sleep and antipyretics. I feel good about Devo. I don't know if that's reasonable. I cannot say I feel any better about Aloha territory? And everything else will wait for when I'm not running a 39-40 degree fever, unfortunately

I was specifically unhappy about what I thought was a no exe rule because I'm not usually this off the game in terms of rules, and triggering a no exe specifically would not be something I'm down for, so sort of. Just 'wtf Kas why.' I think, to try to spell out what troubles me: I think it's sensible to be cautious of a WGG but the calculus differs in this game. Again, don't disagree it's a foregone conclusion but do think it has some degree of strength to it. (Anyone who wants to level accusations of motte and bailey tactics at this point should note that equivocation between 'clear' and 'defeasible strong read' is pretty much also strawmanning.) Add this to what I felt to be bad faith argumentation surrounding the meaning of 'clear' (IMO, something that stood out to me in light of how DeTess usually appears exceptionally good at offering grace to players, contrasting MR63 and Joe's MR with Bleeder, and I am not really sure where I stand anymore. That to me is the only thing that is at stake here. I don't really care about the rest of it and believe it is fundamentally a distraction. That, and memories of getting FUDed so hard by Mat into ignoring Danex's clear in QF62 and the fact I tend to be wary of players who want to deny argumentative progress and slow the process of coalescing Village trust. I don't disagree it's a Village-sided tactic but I believe Elims can in fact weaponise it, and also have (hi Mat.) Otherwise, it's just a potayto/potahto difference and while philosophically interesting in terms of a study of epistemic risk, not very interesting to this game. There's probably a certain level of clarity that DeTess has, knowing what was going on behind one of the three lead trains, and I actually think that's pretty neat in a V!DeTess world. Which...I am probably overall trending towards? IDK. I do think there's a general shift in approach with MR63, and again, altercation with Archer.

I think it's just different temperaments then. I don't mind making quick judgements and being wrong - the point is both damage control (don't claim to people you aren't dead certain of, and that requires a strength greater than say, something like this) and being careful about your assumptions so you revise when necessary. I accept I will be wrong; I just seek to be less wrong, or to revise adequately and correctly when the evidence calls for it. Which is basically Bayesian. Whereas you don't want to make a hasty judgement and want to keep them in the default until you get something strong enough you are happy to base reads off, which is fair ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

No, I was just joking. No one did.

I sort of am working by exclusion here? Just trying to think through the different possibilities and regardless of what I know of my own, it does have implications for Mat's alignment in my view. I don't disagree it could be a WGG - I just strongly lean against it, hence the probabilistic comment, because I kind of feel Wrath penalises the Elims more than the Village and so they should be more worried about it. Ironically, it's also why I V!read your response to Archer and felt ehhh about his side of that conversation - I felt like you were not really factoring that in, while Archer was, and that felt like it emerged more naturally from an Elim mindset. I don't even think I'm saying clear - I'm happy to revise later on. We can make bad assumptions about Elim behaviour. That's the point of flagging assumptions as assumptions. But probabilistically, "Village in most possible worlds" is good enough for me to treat him as weak Patamon, barring evidence of any odd worlds, and it's concerning to me you're not steelmanning this line of thought. Edited to add: You couldn't have told me that yesterday? >>

I'd welcome you but it's hell and I don't feel you wanna be welcomed to hell smh. Voice in the Crowd. Sort of anon voting mech? You burn your Day action and cast a vote in your GM PM and this overrides anything you did or didn't say in thread. Anyone can use it. But you have a 1/5 chance of losing your vote, i.e. your vote becomes a no vote. P.S. Arigato, Writer-sama! I will use the PM wisely All the Digimemes! Edited to add:

I'm not following your logic here. My hidden vote endangered Mat. This precludes an E/E world for Mat and me. As Devo noted, and several others can attest to, I was on at EoD so E!me could simply retract the order and let Archer kill you and not waste Mat's extra life in a Mat-me E/E world. There's a rejoinder you can make here, but it fails. I also did say barring certain worlds, because there is an E!Mat and E!Archer world, and to me that's the primary E!Mat world. But beyond that? 1. I ascribe very low credence to any world in which the Elim team has two Thugs. This slows the game down way too much. (See: AG9 precedent.) This also implies that the Elim team either has Silver Bones or has a Shade Expert. If they have a Shade Expert, Mat shouldn't remotely be endangered because that's an important role for their team given Wrath of the Shades and how much it affected the Mat-Araris team in the previous iteration of this ruleset. 2. If the Elim team only has one Thug (in whatever form), there's little gained risking wasting the life here just for distancing. Might as well have me vote Mat. Similarly, not much effort to save Mat going on beyond Archer. Devo deliberately endangered Mat. You could postulate the Elims have Silver Dust as well, and that's going to be their DK, but even then, no real apparent call to waste the life. 3. I think a worldview on which "Most possible worlds have V!Mat except for E!Archer/E!Mat" is good enough reason to suggest an overall V!read of Mat: it's essentially the argument that most relevant probabilities have Mat being V than E. 4. You could argue the Elims didn't need to save Mat, but then you're also posulating that they were very willing to leave it to the capricity of EoD with the votes so often tied, anon voting, and a late Mat train. I'd argue there was also not that much urgency on the part of Mat to avoid the ML. He tried but I've seen desperate Mat before. I point back to the fact that Silver Bones is best not wasted on an unnecessary lynch, seeing as the Elims are the ones putting in the kill regularly and therefore most likely to incur the Wrasth of the Shades. Edited to add: Oh, and: 5. You could argue that the Elims did in fact put in a late order and retract it. But then given how late Archer's order came in, it practically demands: A. not actually caring, i.e. likely being in sevenpool, and B. being on at EoD.

Unless I'm tripping which is possible as I am still running a fever, I think this is more likely to imply V!Mat, barring certain worlds. This is mildly embarrassing say the least...

Yeah actually sorry I take this back. Shouldn't post when frustrated.

IDK I guess you could call it a potato/potayto difference but it felt a lot less about you specifically and a lot more about 'who tf in these three do I feel ok about final voting', given I feel it's a bit of a wash and don't have the SAN to compute the last minute voting changes. Yes and no, I think. At seven people max, you can functionally get away with it. That's one hell of a big PoE, and the trains didn't get exceptionally huge until the very end. From my perspective, if V!Aman, that's doable. Finding one functional VM in that pool? Yikes. Edited to add: Tbh given the Silver Bones gate from your last Elim game under this ruleset, I can't say I'm thrilled by this new discovery :eyes:

Not really. I didn't really want Aman to die but saw potential for lurkers to be tempted into a VitC hammer, given at maximum we had a sevenpool of no voters. Can't deny vote on him started because of my concerns about the lead trains and Aman's lack of WiM but was willing to upgrade read on basis of interactions. And since I didn't want Aman to die, cue my ongoing obsession through most of EoD as to which of the three of you was Evil, if at all.

Probably one of the no voters. That was the precise thing I was highlighting near EoD :|

Ties don't result in no exes. I'm not understanding the context of this question.

ffs. Edited to add: Wait I'm a fool. I thought I misread and that ties mean no exe. But they don't. This means whoever was hit had Silver Bones, I think.

I mean, the easiest reconciliation is to read "the creator of mankind" as a descriptor/adjective for 'the Almighty', no? He's identifying himself with the figure Vorin culture calls the Almighty, and Vorin culture attributes the Almighty with creating mankind. He's not saying he did it, he's just using the descriptor Dalinar or whoever might get the VHS would recognise.

Question for you. At this point, do you genuinely believe we have at least one Elim in the top three trains? Edited to add: Ngl same.

But you don't want to vote?

Any possibility you can elucidate why?

Define MatTunnel here please. Honestly I feel I have probably been too willing to pass something off as a V read. Just not sure what. Lessons learned from LG93 and all that. Was too willing to pass bad things off as Elims won't do that. But my brain isn't cooperating anymore. Main thing holding me back from you, well I've spelled it out. For DeTess, I feel disagreement with Archer comes from V perspective. Feel Elims more likely think of speedbumps in rules. Not confident of this because DeTess and Mobborn discussion was off but not mere fact of discussion. Was DeT taking deliberate imma focus on Mobborn but also think we shouldn't stance. Contradictory. Then LHF Alpha. Opportunist maybe. For Archer, sort of like statement I flagged. Also vague TWTBAW vibes from weird TKN case but that got me into trouble in LG93. Sometimes cigar is cigar. Also anon voting. Doubt failure to self pres will persist. Idk. Feels likgoing in nonstop circles rn. I wish SE wasnt this hard. S2g some games feel like brainblock/fog.

Last thoughts before I pray the meds take me for good because I've had enough of suffering: -Archer;'s vote still weirdly elastic about Mat and IDK what the TKN thing was about so ok. Sort of want to a bit for that sentence there though - feel E!Archer is a bit more pushy but not confident enough of this line of thought in current state. -Bah. No. Not making progress. Gonna try to be back before rollover to puzzle this out instead of staring blankly.

Sick buddies Gws! Is this Archer.

I completely don't understand this post and I'm the sick guy here :/ Where was this when TKN actually voted Stick D1 in LG93? I can be talked into E!TKN but I completely don't understand this line of thought at all.