Kasimir

What about an E!SE world? You have unlimited protects from Wrath. But that's sort of why I think E!SE is OP.

D1 Silver Dust? = Won't Die to Shades No Matter What. Surprised they wouldn't go for someone with Iron Will though. Though as Araris observed, maybe it's difficult to align?

Hence asked about withheld the kill. Like, straight-up I will fully admit that it's probably a good thing I can't vote this cycle because it's the LG83 Araris problem come back to haunt me. I don't like to vote bros. I can accept this is the logical course of action but am apparently trying to bloody hard to squirm past it. What would you do. I really don't know. IDK if I do, but I was trying to work out the maths to figure the odds of sustaining continued protection of at least one player. At this point, like Devo. I think it's workable but it has to do with something I think most people keep forgetting about lol. RIP. Why was he in Mixed then? For that matter, why is TJ in Mixed and why Better Than Null on Alv? Appreciate JNV being in their own Quokka tier, but also, why?

Tbf I have a strong feeling I'm gonna be joining you the Night after... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Well, in a V!you world, I am actually more willing to look at the 'didn't send in kill' worlds. I don't disagree it might have been a Shade Expert but the fact we don't see other cases of insanity...IDK. I did argue with Araris (and this is the part that pinged me as weird when I talked about narrative shaping) because the fact he immediately zeroed in on worlds with either didn't send in kill or roleblock felt like he was trying to shape narrative away from a protect world - and suppose that's actually what happened. Then going for the RB gets someone else MLed (potentially.) I am not sure this is an internally consistent scenario because it explodes as soon as protection claims. But YMMV. Question for you guys (anyone reading this.) Odds the Elims withheld the kill to implicate whoever got RBed? I low key think this would not be impossible but I don't feel just anyone would be willing to withhold the kill. Tbh, if their protect is burned up, having a known Thug still isn't the worst I think. But that's the RB-protect scenario Devo and I were talking about. Given that SE protects don't expire until they trigger on contact with an attacker, that requires Elims to also have Wrath padding, beyond just extra numbers, no? The thing with the protection world is that it's not farfetched because selection bias but Araris is not wrong it does require the specific attacker to have had Iron Will to stop the insanity penalty, which is a very specific combination. But E!SE seems fairly OP. Thing I'm struggling with here is that we do know of a Thug - having V!Thugs on top of SE makes sense, but still. A lot of padding even then? Edited to add: Entails high Elim incentive to vote you, I see... >>

Ah, apologies. Anyway I was an idiot and it doesn't work. OoA means White Fox comes prior to redirects so there's no point testing it. I was also gonna point out that even if it didn't, there still is no point. Because Aman doesn't dispute that he was RBed - the question here is whether what Devo stopped was the kill or not. Testing/proving whether he was roleblocked doesn't close that question so we just postpone the pain another Turn which is meaningless. ...If I grit my teeth and admit this, I would very willingly lynch for this if it were anyone else outside of a set of certain players and I would understand if the Village lynched me if this happened to me so IDK if I need to simply be consistent in what it takes for me to be willing to go after someone ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

As you're currently one of the players I'm willing to believe Village with the asterisk of need to re-read posts: do you believe there is another way to test this, or to go ahead? I don't feel I can make a good unemotional judgement here.

Fundamentally agree with this assessment. Probably some bizarre world in which this is some mass distancing plan but I'll pass on that cough syrup for now. As crude as this is, the E!solution to V!Aman is not a convoluted claim but the NK. Ok. Have gotten back up and to PC. To be fair, this decision is not in my hands. I do think it's worth voting Aman here, just to confirm which world, and I think this is relevant information. But I'm also the insane guy here so my vote doesn't count and it doesn't functionally matter. In the meanwhile, in an event of a V!Aman world, I do want to make sense of as many of his reads as possible because that's helpful going forward. People can @ me if they don't think this calculus makes sense, because I'm not fully sure of this myself, but when push comes to shove, I have difficulty being fully rational when it comes to lynching a player that I sort of - don't want to for emotional/bro reasons if it makes sense. How many max do you expect in this game? I'm currently trying to work out if we can expect them to be covered as well, along with Devo. Thinking through this situation. Edited to add: @Devotary of Spontaneity - FWIW I can actually think of a way to keep you alive for consecutive cycles. But it does require the/a SE to explicitly protect you this Night (hi SE, get on this?).

Aman. Et tu, ThreadPMBro? Really always thought you'd take the Kira approach here but respect that you wanted to send me to an honorable death in the Light. Then again maybe I'm really just assuming it's me. Two thoughts here: 1. Devo would not be told if she was redirected. If anyone used a spellbook, it is imperative to claim. This would massively screw with the results. 2. Tbh it is theoretically possible to confirm if Aman was RBed by having him use VitC. If he really was RBed, he won't be able to. This does require high voting participation and there's a chance that something could go very badly wrong cf. if Aman's vote is lost and someone else VitCs. Problem with 2 world IMO is that I think it only establishes if Devo is truthful, not whether Aman really is Evil. I think that's a fundamental calculus that has to be made. From what I'm seeing, main alternative world is the Elims just didn't send in a kill and IDK how I feel about likelihood. This should do for now. I'll set an alarm to come back with more SAN in a couple hours. EDIT: @Amanuensis Sry muddled. Am explicitly willing to entertain V you worlds, would like to hear your view on this situation. EDIT 2: Sry still not being clear. Forgot Devo can't be redirected because of OoA. Ignore 2 it's meaningless here.

Question also. Would u say u r sus pf ppl who vote u b/c u think they r going LHF? Edited to add: Oh yeah Writer-sama: Omakase pls <3 U made a good choice for PM so I trust u <3

Depends on how on-track we are, I think. Part of this is admittedly me being impatient because I wanna know wtfrith hapepned and also because I believe we can work more solidly from a red flip than roles simpliciter. In RB world, the Elims likely already knew and have begun aggressively distancing which is helpful because we can look out for that. But ultimately if WF don't wanna we can't do anything about that. I tend to be solidly of the view that players sometimes expect too much heavy lifting from roles and prioritise that over being a Villager. If you are a Village anything you are a Villager first and that role second. If you aren't helping the Village, what's the point? So I guess - yes and no. I'd come forward in their shoes since that clears things up. I expect they could argue they can do more good hidden. If they're right, fair enough. If they're wrong, justify that choice to the Village dead ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ I mean that's the fundamental dilemma of every role right? Can agree objectively speaking it's not the worst scenario they're not saying anything - thinking a bit of LG83 here where connection analysis suffered a little because Bort was found via JNV scanning and Mat RBing (I think?) RB claim will always kill the thread so agree it's worth holding off on for as long as possible. Like, the problem with not knowing IMO is that last Night is functionally a black hole. We have possibilities that are, to be sure, not equiprobable, but we don't know, and there's a different set of Elim team constraints and assumptions depending on which of the possibilities we lock in on. As I pointed out again, if there is no RB claim by EoC, do we increase credence in the belief the Elims were so inactive they didn't kill? (Cf. you suggesting withheld kill, Araris suggesting inactivity.) If so, isn't the WF damning us to several pointless cycles of CCing hoping for the best? (Yes we know my views on CC, CC sucks, wastes time, allows performativity as standard for thread participation, super informative! /s, works in really specific circumstances when Elim teams have to defend inactive partners, and so on.) That's really awful strategy. TBF we can't NKA in RB world so that's not the worst. I don't deny that roles can be valuable but I'm always unabashedly about analysis and thread participation first. It's bread-and-butter. Probably a bit soapboaxy here but I do have strong views about players who want to role and not bother with Village legwork. And I feel this kind of comes out (unrelated I'll agree) at endgame or midgame when players are sometimes too quick to be unnecessarily oversecretive. Like ok maybe this is the best way to express my view rn - I don't need them to claim explicitly. But if we could have a guaranteed E flip and get a V flip today imma be mad. Avoidable MLs on V should be avoided. That's my end stance. I have been intertaining an inetrnally paranoid world with Araris and RB but I think it's not really internally consistent so leaving it for now. If I'm less than coherent btw sorry, have downed prolly 5 different meds now and am waiting for sleep. Love Covid. IDK how Orlok and Ash SEed with it and I respect them. Isn't it Archer who is basically "Praise Sart!" with every other post or am I high? Hmm.

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Oh yeah. おはよう, Writer-sama! If and only if you don't have other priority PMs, could I please have another? I struggle to work entirely in the thread without flooding it and this lets me offload my panic/confused thoughts onto people off-thread when I try to make things make sense <3 ありがとうございます~ Edited to add: Post formatting went to hell, hoping this line here fixes everything, geez. Tbh the main reason I'm giving him grace is my thoughts on the likely events of N1 due to E!Aman having a known tendency to enjoy playing with his food, but in retrospect, that may not be the brightest idea - kill meta swamping does happen, since teammates may have other thoughts on the kill and may override, except in the case of certain particularly opinionated individuals. @The Known Novel - What's behind your mild sus of Archer? Edited to add 2: Apologies to all. For anyone who didn't see this, the post turned into a mess of spoiler boxes and was pretty much unreadable. I don't know why but have finally fixed it. I guess the Shard cannot accept the divine power of Patamon.

Any reason why not for Mat? Agreed her vote intuitively needlessly endangers Mat, but self-pres was pretty possible over that. Feels like a risk threshold deal. Also partly because your critique of her reasoning makes sense and probably articulates why I felt ? at that time, but I'm also recalling a game where I think an Elim was read as Village by some for refusing to self-pres onto their Village reads into a tie. Taking a closer look when I have the time and energy as I don't think this one matters as much as direct analysis, so not at the top of my priority list. Alright. The way I see it, I'm going to tentatively lump <Devo, Archer, Mat, DeTess> into high effort categories. That is, I'd probably need to do a deeper dive to be able to solidfy how I currently feel about them, and I don't really have the health for that right now. I'm going to go medicate, rest, and try to get it done by EoD/EoC, and probably close-read as well. I'll offer my thoughts about the high effort category first, as they currently stand: Archer's posts are often weird to me. I've expressed this previously, that I have a tendency to gun for V!Archer because I don't understand what he's doing and think it's kayana. I sort of like the elasticity of his Mat vote because that feels more like a stubborn Villager with a bone than an Elim, who basically had easier targets. Also captured I think by Archer's lack of a transition off TKN. I'll balance this with the fact his distro brawl with DeTess IMO emerges from a more Elim perspective, and that I'm still trying to understand the move off Mat. Devo - the main problem with Devo in a nutshell is I thought I understood the differences between her V and E play, but there's two complications here: first, the fact that as she pointed out, that she's been recently having engagement difficulties and I don't deny mech is a useful crutch (I say this as the guy of whom Araris complains that if you build mech in a game I will relentlessly exploit it to solve.) And second, that on re-going through past games yet again to try to get a better fix on Devo, I noticed she has an Elim game I didn't participate in (MR60) that completely explodes my idea of how E!Devo plays, so thanks I guess >> I need time for this so that's not gonna happen right now. DeTess - I actually feel positive about DeTess at the moment. I still think her mode of play differs from MR63, and also as I've flagged several times, I feel her distro conflict with Archer emerges from what's more naturally a Village perspective. I think with DeTess, the only thing stopping me from a read in the / juncture is I want to let this Turn play out first, and I'd like to go over her posts and her reads one more time. Mat - Hoo boy. Okay. The problem with Mat IMO is that I still struggle to see see a viable reason why, if we're theorising E!SB or E!SE Mat, that he was left up for a lynch that close. I've tried to pathwalk this exe to see if it makes sense and I guess it theoretically could but is also uncomfortable - you basically have to theorise that if not for Archer, Mat would've done a last minute single name vote. Which isn't impossible, at least not based on the set-up. The MatTunnel post still doesn't feel right to me, and feels more like Mat trying to invoke a Village tell rather than really having gone there. I need to go over his posts yet again and maybe some data. I don't feel the defensiveness point very much but it might be worth checking out comparators to re-attune, IDK. I think at this point, sheer exhaustion over going in circles really puts me back into the FAFO vote territory. K. Leaving aside the high efforts: - Kas (I'm Seraphimon!) - Steel - JNV, TJ, Sart - Aman, Fae, Aloha, Illrao - Araris, Alvron - TKN, Ash Best I can do right now, sorry. Gonna sleep and be back hopefully a little recovered.

Curious about your assessment of the odds of self-Soothe Voice orders? Edited to add: In this scenario, do you see her as teamed with anyone in this triad?

Do you think this can be satisfactorily explained by hypothesising he would be willing to have voted in the next two minutes if Archer hadn't beaten him to it? Not bothering to timestamp bot this, but the difference between his post and Archer's is a matter of seconds here. Genuinely asking as my main reason for being okay with FAFO about Mat is that I'm still getting extremely mixed vibes from him no matter how many times I re-read, to the point I just can't sustain a coherent, singular read, but I agree I struggle with making sense of D1 EoD behaviour in light of the E!SB!Mat or even E!SE!Mat hypothesis. Why with regard to Archer? That DeTess vote? I did ask: players are informed of roleblocks but not redirects, which is why I'd tried to be a bit coy at the start, knowing that the Elims were likely to have a better picture of wtf was going on, and then me, and then probably everyone else making assumptions, but I'm struggling and failing to map out any TMI, probably because I still don't know myself, and just gave up early in interests of overall clarity. If White Fox rb and potential post-Rollovet claim, could expect to see aggressive distancing from Elims pre-that, maybe. Though as I'm typing, it's four hours past and no word. It's odd though: I really dislike Sart's conviction that a raw role lynch without any appeal to suspicions at all in the SBs will net us an Elim because that's how you force your SEs to out themselves or get gunned down in the process, which feels more like an Elim mindset since the Elims would probably like to not have to deal with SE complications at all. At the same time, I feel reassured because as much as it #feelsbad to admit this, my rule of thumb has continued to hold across games: if I think this is kayana and weird, it's V!Sart. When I read his posts and vibe with them, he's E!Sart. Even true when I GM him. So the fact I'm very thrown makes me feel reassured in a V!read of Sart, and I don't know how this is defensible but there I go. I think V!Sart and V!me just exist at perpendiculars ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Edited to add: @Alvron: Any help from the Gods of Luck and Chance? I had a bad run last game so my Sacred Coin hasn't yet been reconsecrated in Elim blood

Killing a player purely on the basis of the role they have. Role-exes can be done well, given certain constraints. Specifically, known aspects of the distro (and balance) can suggest that certain roles must be Evil, and help the Village to narrow down a pool of likely suspects. IMO the main guidelines for a good role-exe tend to be: A. Have decent (if not near to full) sight of the distro B. Based as well on suspicions Because the games are meant to be balanced, knowing aspects of the distro may suggest others. If you think about LG93, it's difficult for Cord to be Evil because there's not enough 'padding' (extra lives, protects) to deal with the Elims having additional kills.

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Appreciated, and take your time.

Could you clarify what you mean by anti-CC?

I will do my civic duty, Nightwatcher. I will vote those I think are sus. Edited to add: A final footnote to the meta discussion: There's one edge case in which these things don't really work, and that's if the roleblocker got redirected, FWIW. You're not told if you're redirected, according to Elan. In that world, it's imperative that the redirecter come clean. I think, if I'm not wrong, that the OG target can actually prove to have not been roleblocked, because the White Fox prevents you from taking an action the following Day as well, so ability to use VitC proves you weren't actually RBed. I wasn't sure if I wanted to bring this up because I feel it unnecessarily opens a loophole for any caught Elim to struggle free from, but I think the loophole can be closed so it's worth noting. @Elandera Is this a correct assessment of the White Fox roleblock rules, with regard to VitC and not knowing who you ended up roleblocking? Edited to add 2: Wait I'm an idiot ignore me, White Fox is first on OoA >> Edited to add 3: On Devo: Overall diagnosis: Gonna come right out and say it - I don't/no longer feel confident in an E!Devo read. I do think there's substantively less player analysis from Devo in this game, but charitably, you could argue it's a swamping effect, given that: multiple players queried her, and there's juicy mech to get into, which makes the proportions look worse. I feel like you could make an argument either way, actually. I like the way Devo has been selectively engaging on or at least pursuing some queries, which I take to be closer to V!Devo dgaf. I think functionally a for me, with a commitment to revise with more information. Side-comment: Re-reading LG93 definitely makes me feel more alright with my Ash vote, seeing as Ash got charged with apathy that game too, but was still a bit more proactive. Also as another side-comment: In the process of going over past Devo and a touch of past Aman, I have decided I am eminently alright with a FAFO vote on Mat at this juncture. @Devotary of Spontaneity: Question for you. Suppose E!SB!Mat or even E!SE!Mat. In that world, how do you see the D1 voting panning out, resulting in Mat's getting exed? You commented on this: Do you still consider Archer to be more likely Evil than DeTess or Mat?

I'd consider that a reasonable assumption if it were a Lurch, given the high commitment cost of Lurching in this game for the Village. Less so if roleblock. No idea about the Writer but Writer-sama is my new BFF for hooking me up with those delicious PMs >:) Not that it particularly matters at this point, but that'd be my reads. Question for you: why TJ and JNV? I'd concur with those reads, but I'd like to know why anyway, to feel more confident about my credences there. Question for you. You seem to be basing this vote entirely off mech and your follow the cop plan requires the Shade Expert to be alive. All Shade Experts have an extra life. 何が　WOW WOW　この空に届くのだろう ...Have you considered that going after players who demonstrably have Silver Bones just on the basis of having Silver Bones is how you kill your Shade Experts? I respect this response. I also have to admit that when I look at your most recent past Village game in which you had difficulty and subbed out (LG93), I still see more suspicions/thoughts engagement from you and very little mech. I will go over and catalogue this one more time, but I think your mech ratio is very high. だけど　WOW WOW　明日の予定もはからない I think Edited to add: Nope I don't remember what I was gonna say. Thanks COVID, it's been a blast >>

On re-reading, Ash's assumption I got hit and it was Alv is interesting. We all definitely assumed I got hit at the start while grappling with the rules of the game, but I'm surprised the natural inference for Ash is Alv rather than Mat, who wrote a whole essay urging his team to N1 me in Araris's game. Slight protective Mat vote, and this. Also potential distancing on Mat's end? IDK, throwing thoughts out. I admit I'm giving most playstyle claims right now the benefit of the doubt until I have the SAN for it. Edited to add: Is there some reason you expected to go insane?

K I'm pretty sure the answer is 'lol no Kas u trippin' but I gotta get an answer to this because it's disturbing: Redirecting a kill doesn't cause 2x Broken Survivors, one on OG target, and one on new target, assuming no Iron Will involved? Edited to add: As Araris would say, Elan felt we don't vote enough D1, so wanted to give us more practice at it :eyes: Tbf, doesn't really change our job of finding the Elims. I did get a bit carried away because puzzles and the idea that one player might have info that could lead to the exe of a near-confirmed Elim was exciting but that's no longer in our hands. Just gotta focus on putting one metaphorical foot in front of the other, I expect. Someplace I've stalled is that most of my suspicions seem to have petered out in terms of 'player is just struggling rn' which to be fair, can be true alongside them also being Evil but I don't have enough SAN to compute right now.

Yes and no, honestly. Feels like a wash to me. I sort of feel it might be worth it even then (i.e. coming out to claim it before anything else), but only weakly so. But in the case of a fake Silver Bone attack claim, I think it's more compelling: you exchange your protect for a dead Elim, and you help the Village softclear a player as a result. There's no point in keeping an extra life if you don't do much with it, just to hope to kill soak? But I recognise this one isn't a slamdunk case unlike roleblock verse. Some of it also boils down to how many Shade Experts you expect there to be in this game. I actually think that if there's an Evil Shade Expert, then Shade Expert abilities don't seem to do anything? So a lot of ??? there. I have no idea. I will say there are players here I believe could successfully roleblock a kill, but at the same time, even if they did, I'm assuming we won't know until at least Rollovet, due to them trying to keep discussion alive. You probably remember a certain Tehlin, for one. I think the main reason I was willing to accept I might've gotten attacked is that I'm a notorious kill magnet and a convenient control kill, so I'm not especially surprised. I can't really judge the likelihood here. I won't disagree with your assessment that it's probably easier to pull off a Lurch than a roleblock though. Edited to add: Being known to have SB isn't the end of the world either; depending on the player, it can reduce the efficacy of Elim control kill plays, so eh. Edited to add 2: In roleblock world, things get a bit more complicated because as long as the target has Iron Will, we'll never know who got hit. But then this is resolved because the roleblocker knows who is Evil. Which is all that really matters for us. Edited to add 3: Tbh am less interested in trying to ID who exactly got hit - more the compulsive puzzle-solving part of my brain just wants to know what the heck went on. Edited to add 4: Reason why I think getting the picture matters, FWIW - consider kill denial world. Odds of the Elim team including experimenters like Devo, Alv, maybe Aman or DeTess shoots up. But Devo brought up another possibility which is that the Elims don't have kill protection. Which raises questions about Mat again, our known Silver Bone. I'd lean Village in that world because I think there's less incentive to lose their only protection to a slow-burn endgame train. Edited to add 5: Actually ignore my comments on Shade Experts, I forgot they have default Silver Bones.

Fair and good catch. I feel like the Silver Bone case, they wouldn't claim. The Shade Expert involved would cc because they would know their protective ability was used up. Tbh part of me wondered because I've watched E!Araris do enough narrative shaping by now. But none applicable in this case. Interesting if I really did get hit though. Classic noise/control kill. Edited to add: Reformatted this to confuse people less as I apparently cannot sleep for hacking my lungs out :/ What it says above. Understand life's busy and that's fair, hence asking to establish if you got hit.