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twelfthrootoftwo

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Everything posted by twelfthrootoftwo

  1. twelfthrootoftwo
    First things first: I was cleaning the latrines last cycle. If Wilson hadn't stated it, I would have done so. It's important information considering the complete lack of deaths this cycle, and I'd prefer it to be public knowledge. As a Spearman, though, the roleblock had no effect. I can only guess that the lack of deaths was due to a combination of the other officer, scouts (who I expect would all have left camp to avoid the battle) and perhaps a chance kill on an Aladar spy. I can't address that aspect any further, because the pieces of information involved are solid facts. What I can do is address the suspicions that led Wilson to target me. The only time I've deliberately attempted to manipulate (which, in the context of an elimination game, I consider to be attempting to alter the opinions and behaviour of others beyond a goal of self-preservation) would be the beginning of LG7, and that backfired hard. I'm a terrible manipulator. If I say something, it's something I believe, stated in the most natural way at the time. That's true here. If that draws your suspicion, there's not really much I can do. If I push this too hard, I'm going to be accused of trying to feed suggestions to a spy. Suffice to say: if I had been advising Odysa at the time, I would have suggested she reference this post. Given how that discussion turned out, it probably wouldn't have been an ideal move, but it's a detail that I would have suggested. Finally, in case I'm right in thinking my activity level is suspicious: while uni is finished for the year, I've gone straight into what are essentially two part-time jobs. The result is that in the evening I have three pages of posts to attempt to digest in one go, in turn resulting in me either picking out tiny details or posting on gut feeling. To be honest, I'm not a bad target for a lynch. I don't have a role, and I can't see myself suddenly becoming more active. I'll leave that for the rest of you to decide. I've lost most of the suspicion I had for Wilson, for revealing her role to offer information valuable to the villagers, but beyond that I don't really have anything constructive to add. Edit: It's appreciated
  2. twelfthrootoftwo
    This reminds me of the Forgotten doc Wilson: Something doesn't seem right about her. It seems almost like every second post she's reminding us that she's innocent, that she's using a more active playstyle, or that she's a scary Eliminator. It feels like she's trying to compensate for the (re)new(ed) wariness from LG9 by playing noticeably differently. That might be trying to avoid a lynch as a loyal scribe, or it could be trying to seem helpful and trustworthy as a spy. Or hint to the other spies. Kas: No judgement. I would just note that in MR3, he tended to ask for rule clarifications in the doc if there was an advantage to be gained from the villagers not knowing the answer. He may or may not be doing that here. There are a few people who appear to be less active in the thread than usual (Reihmer, Marand, Jost, Alinel) and some of them have given IRL reasons. For the others, I find it difficult to gauge whether they actually are less active or whether it's an illusion due to the level of activity in the thread.
  3. twelfthrootoftwo
    I'm curious why you decided to name your suspects, but didn't give any reasoning. I thought it may have been lack of time, but you've posted a fair bit since the writeup. Having stated their names, someone was bound to ask for reasons; why not just give them straight away?
  4. twelfthrootoftwo
    After hearing both sides, I'm inclined to support Meta's plan. The lighteyes' target essentially becomes a safe place to store the extra vote; they don't really get extra power or influence. The issue that hasn't been addressed is how (and when) to choose the target. If we need to spend time debating it each cycle, then we lose either time for discussion (increasing the chance our target would otherwise have come under reasonable suspicion), or time for the lighteyes to get their votes in (increasing the chance for shenanigans or non-votes, potentially making the whole exercise pointless). I considered suggesting a preset semi-random system, to take the politics out, but that would lose the flexibility. How would we choose - acclamation, tertiary public vote, first to call?
  5. twelfthrootoftwo
    Torwel scowled at the rainspren in front of him, before bringing his foot down squarely on its one eye. Nothing but a splash and then solid rock. He kept walking. No point looking back; it would still be standing there, mocking his attempts to express his frustration at the weather. One of these puddles, the storming thing would break under his boot, or so he told himself. Not that he disliked the rain. Rain was fine, as long as you weren't in it. Quite nice to watch through the tavern window, with a warm hearth and a fragrant mug of lavis ale. Yes, ale was fragrant; you just had to attune - Stop that. No point making himself more annoyed at his long post at the watchman's tower. He'd be under cover once he got there - not that it would do much good, being already soaked to the bone. Maybe the rain was an omen? He'd heard rumours of spies in the camp. Perhaps the Stormfather was sending a message. The non-RP version: Is this important? Also: we learn role and alignment after death - does that include an indication of which team a spy belongs to? We can use this to assess how coordinated they are after a few successful lynches. My understanding was that the spy would also lose their role...? I'm inclined to agree with Alvron on the spy numbers. Since they don't know each others' identities, there will probably be a decent amount of friendly fire between the teams. My gut feeling is that there's six, rather than eight, mostly because the first four deaths being villagers seems unlikely, but not impossible.
  6. twelfthrootoftwo
    I think my brain has finally started working again, so I'll sign up as Torwel, who is really rather annoyed at being conscripted and would much rather go home and enjoy a mug of ale at the local tavern. He'll just have to settle for the inferior brew of whatever hamlet the army is passing by. Edit: Just to check, are IRL relationships permitted if you don't discuss the game? If not, I'll sit out and let Eolhondras play.
  7. twelfthrootoftwo
    Jain, Aonar’s logic in that post was exclusive – either Ash and Chase were both Forgotten, or neither were. The fact that Chase was lynched, and proven innocent, would therefore (by that logic) mean Ash is also innocent. If Aonar did get killed for that post, it could indicate two things: Ash is a Forgotten, and Aonar’s other reasons were enough to want him silenced, or Ash is not a Forgotten, and the real Forgotten wanted to frame him. But I would trend towards the argument that Aonar is just too dangerous as a Villager to leave alive for long. So the chalking kill can target the Forgotten or Sentry, but nothing will happen. Taking 3 remaining Forgotten and Joe actually being a Sentry, there's only a 50% chance someone will actually die. At the moment, I'm inclined to trust Ashiok, mostly because I don't see a reason for Line of Making Chase in the first cycle. (Chase did confirm using a Line of Warding, so we know Ashiok wasn’t bluffing there.) I’m most suspicious of Ronald – you’re right about the Line of Vigour on the lynch target, but is there anything else you have to add to the discussion?
  8. twelfthrootoftwo
    The Forgotten may not have seen an immediate gain in killing a Sentry. With an information advantage, they should be able to figure out whether they could get a chalking kill this cycle. If not, there's no advantage to killing Joe last cycle as opposed to this, since we're using a maximum Line of Warding strategy so no extra resources would be lost. And so on. At that point, it becomes a choice between other factors, and Aonar did hint at having access to Advanced Rithmatics. (...Why? It seems too obvious to be an acknowledgement to the sender.) If the split is 7:3 (ignoring the unlikely possibility of 3 starting Forgotten), then the Forgotten have a ~50% chance (depending on how they are distributed between the two warding groups) of being able to force one chalking kill with Lines of Vigour. If that were to expose one of their members, I can certainly see that being an undesirable exchange. Also, I note a gendered pronoun for the killer. Unfortunately it gets us nowhere, since we lynched the only female character.
  9. twelfthrootoftwo
    Apologies for being less active than usual. I've finally found the time and energy to sit down and have a proper look over the game. As such, this post will backtrack a little. We seem to have settled on a workable Line of Warding pattern of alternating teams. I'm entirely happy with this; even if the divisions are (largely) known, there's enough of a buffer that the Forgotten would need to go far out of their way to force a chalking kill. In the previous cycle, Araris argued that we should use less, to allow for more Lines of Making and to get more information when/if the chalkings break through. How would this information be gathered? If we use a specific group, it becomes difficult to distinguish between a misbehaving Forgotten, a Non-Rithmatist, and someone hit by a Line of Vigour. If we don't use a specific group, we can't draw solid conclusions about any one player, because (at least at the time of warding) there's an inherent uncertainty in the number of wards that will actually be used. I'm not particularly suspicious of Rlint. In my opinion, the late-vote-on-eliminator argument has come up often enough in previous games that it becomes (to use Joe's terminology) a 'neutral' action. Chase has received quite a lot of suspicion for her RP posts. Asking for more clarity is fine, but if she were in fact an Eliminator, I expect her team would have asked her to be more specific in her posts. The fact she's held suspicion for so long really suggests to me that she's innocent. The idea of killing an opposite number is interesting. The idea being that all the loose ends are tied up - no need for the killer (or potentially a LoV user) to fake a Line of Making result or explain a lack of a protective line. This doesn't quite work if we read the cycle 2 writeup as Dui doing the killing, though, since he was paired with Tavi. edit: more blue
  10. twelfthrootoftwo
    I note we've lost two people from Maill's second category. Hopefully that won't be too much of an issue, since we had the good fortune to hit a Forgotten yesterday, so the wild chalkings are not as strong. The bandwagon on Dui was certainly interesting. I'm suspicious of Tulir, partially because - if he isn't an Eliminator - then we didn't stand to gain anything from him voting for someone who was almost definitely going to be lynched by that point. On the other hand, though, late votes on eliminators get called out just about every time, for that exact reason. edit: it was blue in the editor
  11. twelfthrootoftwo
    Will I'm not sure what to do with the Lines of Warding. More of them will create a buffer against any Lines of Vigor from the Forgotten, but at the same time that reduces our utility from Lines of Forbiddance/Making. And the more we organise everyone so we can produce a solid defence every cycle, the more information the Forgotten have to disrupt that plan. ...We could almost do this statistically. Everyone rolls a die/RNG (and keeps the result secret), which puts them into one of 2/3 groups to take turns. Eg a 1 or 2 is this cycle, 3 or 4 next cycle, etc. But with so few players (statistically speaking), the variance would probably be too high. edit: blue
  12. twelfthrootoftwo
    I was going to propose Aaron F. and Aaron R. But there seems to be a military feel to everything; maybe last names would be more appropriate? I'm a little confused here. Maybe I'm reading the first post wrong, but it sounds like it's leaning towards lynching experienced players, not away. Could you clarify? Also, I'll put an information vote on Will, who has yet to post.
  13. twelfthrootoftwo
    I suspect Joe has jumped to Alim, who set himself up as an excellent target last night cycle. He said he was going to be less active, making him easier to impersonate. He also claimed he had tapped his metal in the previous night cycle, meaning it was unlikely he would do so this time and so could be attacked without the kandra being revealed. Also, he promised to vote for me if Satrams was innocent. What happened there? Yes, this ties the votes between Alim and Jain. Terra has yet to vote, and I leave the tiebreaker to her.
  14. twelfthrootoftwo
    This is the same argument Jain proposed in the previous cycle, and it's wrong for the same reason. We know for a fact that Joe was possessing Popeye at that point in the game, which means Araris at that point was...Araris. Also, I'm curious to know why your suspicions have changed between the post you made during the night cycle and now. I'm not so certain the kandra would be targeting players with spikes. Look what's happening; those with spikes would seem like an attractive target for the kandra, making them a good lynch target. And that exact reasoning therefore makes it dangerous to go for players known publicly to have spikes. Plus, then the kandra get to sit back and watch the villagers lynch each other. Set people, any reason you didn't try spiking Jain or Bunnt? Then we could have had at least one person cleared... edit: blue
  15. twelfthrootoftwo
    As I see it, the call for an inquisition and the arguments used in said inquisition are separate. I agreed with the former, disagreed with the latter. As to why I didn't vote for you, it's because my suspicion was not particularly concrete. The write-ups have been fairly short in the past few cycles, and it's possible the storing hints just didn't make it in. However, then you responded. And you didn't acknowledge my argument, just voted for me on the grounds that I didn't vote immediately (an uncharacteristically weak argument from you). I would also comment that you haven't been greening your votes in the past few cycles, and I'm starting to suspect this may be a hint from the real Satrams. So, Satrams, I'm more than happy to vote for you now. edit: colours...
  16. twelfthrootoftwo
    First of all, Jain, thank you for the discussion post! An inquisition is sorely needed at the moment. However, there are a few problems with your arguments. We know Joe first possessed someone on night 3 - the Tineye, Popeye - and then changed bodies on night 6. So Araris' change of play can't have been because Joe possessed him. It also means that the vote on Bunnt can't have been a kandra conspiracy, since Araris wasn't a kandra at that point. Alron may have jumped to Willa, but remember she had an Allomantic iron spike by then, and claimed to have protected herself (which - if I were in her position - would seem like the best choice). The kandra wouldn't have been able to kill her. ---- I'm currently most suspicious of Satrams. We haven't seen him storing in the writeups since Morgan changed bodies. As to where Joe went, I doubt it would have been Alim, since I expressed suspicion of him last cycle. (Though at the same time that's a good reason it could be him...)
  17. twelfthrootoftwo
    I haven't managed to get my hands on The Rithmatist, so I will just sign up as a guy called Tory Farth. And that's about as far as I'm likely to take roleplay this game.
  18. twelfthrootoftwo
    This is true. But if my tracking is correct, you didn't have a charge to spend. I expect the kandra would have decided the same thing. Would it? Remember that everything you post is in your own words. And Joe is normally just as active as you; there would be no difficulty in communicating. If the kandra are avoiding the more active players, as you suggest, then I think Terra, Jain and Kamden would be the best choices. Unfortunately, though, the majority of living players fall into that less active category...
  19. twelfthrootoftwo
    I think Alim would have been a high priority target for the kandra this round. Of the players left, he's both skilled and active. Joe may have jumped to him this round, since he couldn't tap his metal two nights in a row without filling in between. Set people, did any of you try to spike Bunnt's koloss-blooded power?
  20. twelfthrootoftwo
    Yes, I've been moving my vote around a lot. But this is less about trying to sway public opinion than it is making the voting uncertain. With the current player balance - 8:3 - the kandra have a lot of control, and that's only considering actual votes. But their job becomes harder if they don't know how the village votes will fall - the numerical advantage, at least, is more difficult to apply. This is why I've decided to start moving my vote around. As for my swaying opinions, I don't really have a lot of control there. I'm supplying reasoning each time to explain each of my various suspicions as it comes up - something I think is desirable and beneficial for any elimination game. If other players agree with my argument, that's their decision to make, but I'm not going out of my way to persuade anyone.
  21. twelfthrootoftwo
    Bunnt, you're right. Your power had slipped my mind, so thanks for the reminder. ...I'm starting to think my theory of posting habits is flawed. Kamden would have been a perfect target; up until this cycle he's essentially been completely ignored. The chances of him actually coming on to defend himself are slim, but he's a threat either way - already a kandra, sitting back and happily sniping us off, or unhelpful for the good guys and a prime target for the kandra to escape to. This applies to our other quiet players as well, if not quite as extreme. Popeye? Jain?
  22. twelfthrootoftwo
    Thank you Koll. Bunnt is normally more active than this; I'm really starting to suspect that he was Alron's target, and has not yet coordinated to post. Also, Koll, it is possible for someone with Allomantic iron to lurch themselves; this was the crux of Aonar's plan back in cycle 2. Knowing Wilson received the spike doesn't narrow down the possibilities of who she could have protected (though who she would protect is quite a separate matter). edit: green vote
  23. twelfthrootoftwo
    So Alron was originally going to kill (and probably inhabit) Alim, but changed plans after Alim revealed it. Where would he have gone? There are two people I think would have made good choices: Terra. Last cycle I argued for her innocence, based on Morgan voting for her. That alone makes me think she could have been targeted. In addition, she's been a candidate for lynching a few times. "The closer we are to danger, the farther we are from harm." Bunnt. Alron was pushing for Bunnt to be lynched last cycle, and only changed to secure a lynch given the uncertain votes. Bunnt could therefore be cleared for that cycle, and hence would have been a good choice to possess afterwards. It also would make sense for a last-minute maneuver, without time to consider a new target, and hoping we would think Alim was still targeted Both of them were also in the sweet spot of posting habits I theorised last cycle. I'd also like to hear from Koll, who hasn't posted anything substantial for the past few cycles. edit: forgot to green this when I changed it before
  24. twelfthrootoftwo
    Removing my vote from Alron. Given Morgan's body-hop we don't know for certain that anyone's safe. Including myself and my spiker, if order of actions has spiking before the kandra kill. The list above is of people known to be safe at the beginning of cycle 4 (after Joe moved but before Morgan). I'll edit this into my first post for the sake of clarity. Now, who are the kandra most likely to impersonate? Frequent posters are a risk - they will not be able to post as often In-depth posters are a risk - more content is needed to make the post sound plausible Visible metals are a risk - easy for us to pick (eg why has Jain stopped filling Bendalloy?) Inactive players are a risk - when all else fails, we tend to lynch inactives So the sweet spot is someone who writes short posts, just often enough that we're not calling them out, without a metal we can identify or track. As a subjective opinion, I consider the players in this category to be Popeye, Terra, Tulir, Koll, Willa, and possibly Alron and Bunnt. Also, for anyone wondering: Kamden was last online 3:05 PM on 10 Sep. The night cycle before the last Tineye message appeared (night 2) began 11:26 AM on 10 Sep. If Kamden is in fact the Tineye, he had 3 hrs 39 mins to put in that message. Also2 See what Alron said to Araris. ​
  25. twelfthrootoftwo
    To clarify the writeup, Twei = Taliz = me = (former) Lurcher. I can't be the Tineye. ...Normally you're more on the ball than that, Satrams, even if you don't have a lot of time. And you're suddenly less certain about the kandra numbers (I believe your words were "basically guaranteed" last cycle: http://www.17thshard.com/forum/topic/17501-long-game-8-elendel-gang-war/?p=181421). We know you were filling gold, and so wouldn't be safe from attack. Though I would be surprised if the kandra went after you, given you were also filling last night and so they couldn't be sure their kill would go through. In regards to finding our Tineye: Last cycle, Morgan jumped on Araris' vote for Terra, which was the first vote on someone other than him. I suspect this indicates Terra was not possessed by TrelVin at that point. Also, Bunnt put a vote on Morgan at a point where it looked like Morgan could get lynched. Not a throwaway vote to distance each other, and not a bandwagon on a doomed teammate. I believe this indicates Bunnt was (at that point) not a kandra. I'll update my list from last cycle (state of the game at the beginning of cycle 4, immediately after Joe changed bodies) Popeye Claimed Smoker Araris Known former Feruchemical iron Terra Voted for by known Kandra, claimed Vanilla Alron Jain Known Feruchemical bendalloy Tulir Claimed Vanilla Taliz Known former Allomantic iron Kamden Koll Bunnt Vote for Morgan Alim Satrams Known Feruchemical gold Willa Claimed Vanilla So that's actually narrowed down our suspects a fair bit. First on the list is Alron. What are your thoughts? Edit: crossed out Satrams Edit2: removed vote, added Tulir and Terra's claimed powers Edit3: clarified the list
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