Long Game 79/Anonymous Game 10: The Rhythm of Freedom

[Opal Lion]

Heads-up:

@Cream Tuatara, @Ivory Dragonfly - we need all Villagers on board for this one. If you have a better alternative candidate, let's hear it, but most calculations have us only one vote more than the Elims. We can't afford to lose Village votes right now.

[Ivory Dragonfly]

Yes, yes I'm voting Mint Heron for being an elim.

[Azure Mouse]

(Disclaimer: this is PURELY RP. I've always wanted to roleplay an evil person as a villager. ;P)

Fumesh blew apart a rock with lightning.

He could feel the storm coursing in his veins, begging him to tear through the camp as an incarnation of destruction. But another voice told him to be patient, to wait... his time would come. His allies would emerge from their disguises among the ranks of the traitors, and join him in bringing them to justice. For their own good, and for the good of all singers, the voice told him. And wasn't it fun to destroy, anyways?

But another voice, deep inside, whispered that he had made the wrong choice. That he was the traitor. That forcing people to fight a war they no longer believed in was good for no one.

It wouldn't have worked, he responded. Even without us, it would have fallen apart.

He glared at the ground, where Zure was looking up at him pitifully. One of these days he was going to fry that creature and eat it for dinner.

But he did not raise his hand to strike.

[Mint Heron]

Well, I guess I can’t say I’m surprised. I don’t even know how I would go about trying to not die this turn. Lion, Vulture, Dragonfly, Flamingo: I feel pretty certain one of you is an elim at this point. It feels way too clean and easy for me to get exed this turn. I don’t know which of you it is, but someone’s gotta be power/deep wolfing. Of the other players, I still don’t know which of you I think are elims. Probably Tuatara, feel positive about that. I still suspect Scorpion. And if there’s a fourth…that’d have to be either Weasel or Mouse. I don’t know which one I think is more likely. The whole Mouse thing could easily be a ruse, but I could also see an elim doing that to try and fake looking like they’re about to convert. Sort of a TWTBAW type thing. And Weasel has been hopping on basically at all the right moments to secure an “important” exe, which only really was important when we got Falcon. Could be an elim hiding in the peripheries. I’m just not even sure anymore, and life has been extremely busy lately, so I haven’t had the chance to go through and reread everything like I would’ve liked. Oh well. I doubt this will convince anyone to vote for Tuatara with me, but maybe one or two of you will.

[Cream Tuatara]

16 hours ago, Opal Lion said:

Heads-up:

@Cream Tuatara, @Ivory Dragonfly - we need all Villagers on board for this one. If you have a better alternative candidate, let's hear it, but most calculations have us only one vote more than the Elims. We can't afford to lose Village votes right now.

But here's the problem, I'm not a villager.

[Opal Lion]

16 minutes ago, Cream Tuatara said:

But here's the problem, I'm not a villager.

Sure. Then we'll just lynch you tomorrow

Man, y'all wait for @Amber Vulture to be away to try this tactic, I see. What is this disrespect to me  

Just to recap, guys:

• Tuatara is a claimed nimbleform, proven as of D6. They cannot be Mediationform, though - Heron has claimed it, but the D6 votes also prove that it is not Tuatara.
   
• There is no reason for an Elim to out themselves given we are at lylo, unless trying to save a teammate. This is consistent with Heron's attempted push to switch votes to Tuatara. This is a deliberate, attempted sacrifice to keep their Mediationform alive. There were no votes moving onto Tuatara apart from Heron's vote. Tuatara was not in danger, and the Village has been committed to today's Heron lynch, so there is no reason for the Elims to try to gambit to get us to go harder on Heron - we were already committed anyway! The only explanation is that they are trying to goad a late vote switch and potentially hammer during Village confusion.
   
• Due to the fact the Elims win at vote parity, we need to go after the Elim Mediationform first. It is possible we have two Village Mediationforms. But what we definitely do not have are two Elim Mediationforms, or we'd already have lost. And while it's possible we have two Village Mediationforms, I'm going to remind everyone that we have many reasons to suspect Heron, the first and more glaring of which is their voting on Hyena and saving Beagle, or Malibu, from the D4 lynch.
   
• If Tuatara wants us to take their claim seriously, then this makes the situation worse for Heron, because as @Azure Mouse and @Onyx Flamingo have pointed out, this means that Heron has continuously mentioned Tuatara as a sus but has never, when it counted, made a decisive vote on them. In fact, their going onto Hyena to break a Hyena-Beagle-Tuatara tie looks exceptionally bad D4 because this now means that Heron somehow not only managed to not vote on their suspect, but also managed to vote for the one Villager out of two Elims. Voting shows where a player's strategic priorities are. Heron's priorities are not Village.
   
• There is no reason for an Elim to out themselves. Even if Tuatara is playing like Connie, Tuatara could easily have chosen to stay off the site or not respond. The fact that Tuatara did shows that they're trying to divert the Heron train. To me, that's even more reason to stay the course.
   
• We cannot, at this juncture, afford splintered votes. If we have side-trains, we will be hammered, and we will lose. It is possible we are not 5-4 but 6-3, but we have to play as though we're at lylo because the stakes are too high not to. Vulture is away, which unfortunately means any train that doesn't stick with Heron is in trouble due to a potential Elim hammer.

My vote remains.

[Steeldancer]

There are 4 hours left in the turn. Additionally, the night will probably be late in coming. I'm not sure how late, as today is going to be a bit odd.

Edited August 8, 2021 by Steeldancer

[Opal Lion]

In summation, because I can't believe I missed a meme opportunity:

Spoiler

Villagers, please remember to put in gemstone orders. We need to secure those workform gems if we want to have a shot of winning this. Even lynching correctly won't necessarily save us if the Elims get the gems first.

Edited to add: Heron's claims of peeling off one to two Villagers really stinks. If you believe Tuatara is Evil, and want one or two players to vote with you, then you are just opening the way for an Elim hammer because there's no way in hell they'd just let us take down Tuatara like that. Furthermore, we are at lylo, a contention you've never disputed. Yet now you somehow think we can afford a divided train? How does that benefit anyone except the Elims? I submit the only players in a position to work that out are the Elims, because they know their team size and who their workforms are. So where does your certainty about the gamestate come from, Heron? Sounds Evil to me. 

Edited August 8, 2021 by Opal Lion
bolded annotation as i couldn't on mobile

[Mint Heron]

2 hours ago, Opal Lion said:

Edited to add: Heron's claims of peeling off one to two Villagers really stinks. If you believe Tuatara is Evil, and want one or two players to vote with you, then you are just opening the way for an Elim hammer because there's no way in hell they'd just let us take down Tuatara like that. Furthermore, we are at lylo, a contention you've never disputed. Yet now you somehow think we can afford a divided train? How does that benefit anyone except the Elims? I submit the only players in a position to work that out are the Elims, because they know their team size and who their workforms are. So where does your certainty about the gamestate come from, Heron? Sounds Evil to me. 

I’m not certain about the game state. And me asking for people to vote with me was me not considering the fact that would leave open a hammer possibility for the elims. I know I’m village though, so I know that they don’t even need to hammer anyway. But whatever.

[Steeldancer]

The day is over, I'll get the next turn (if there is one) up as soon as I can. Don't pm during rollover either. Looks like I should be a bit more timely than I originally thought, so it should be within about an hour still. 

 

[Steeldancer]

LG79/AN10 Night 7: The Choice to Continue
Thane opened his mouth and began to speak. 
"Yes, it is true that we are in dire straights. We have very little food. We don't know where we are going to obtain shelter before the highstorm. But we cannot give up what we have obtained. If we stop now, we are giving up the only choice that we have actually made ourselves in our entire lives. Everything else has been chosen for us by our gods. Our forms, our occupations, our wars, our families, everything. We cannot return, regardless of the fact that they will execute us for our betrayal. It is wrong. So instead of giving up, how about we put our heads together and figure out how we can obtain food and shelter before the highstorm hits."
A singer, Chashen spoke up, even as many others were nodding in agreement. They had come so far. 
"That may be true, but they will hunt us down anyway. There's no point in continuing to cause suffering and pain if it will all lead to nothing."
Thane frowned at Chashen. He was one of the ones that they had been suspicious of before. "Do you serve odium, Chashen?"
Chashen laughed. "Me? No. But I can tell you that Odium's reach is long. We have run, but there is no true escape, even as the Fused said earlier today."
Moirin frowned as well. "Take him, and bind him."
A few hours later, they learned that he had been indeed serving Odium. There were yet traitors among them.
---
Mint Heron (9): Scorpion, Mouse, Flamingo, Lion, Vulture, Weasel, Dragonfly
Cream Tuatara (2): Mint Heron
Mint Heron was exed! They were a Mediationform Servant of Odium!
Player List

Spoiler

1. Amber Vulture
2. Amethyst Scorpion
3. Azure Mouse
4. Charcoal Hyena Mateform Rebel
5. Chartreuse Penguin- Elrin Mateform Rebel
6. Coral Swan Dullform Rebel
7. Cream Tuatara
8. Emerald Falcon Mavset-im
9. Fuchsia Ostrich Dullform Rebel
10. Indigo Weasel
11. Ivory Dragonfly- Kethri
12. Magenta Albatross Dullform Rebel
13. Mauve Crocodile  Dullform Rebel
14. Melon Dingo Dullform Rebel
15. Mint Heron- Chashen Mediationform Servant
16. Onyx Flamingo
17. Opal Lion- Atticus
18. Oxblood Beagle- Jalnor Workform Rebel
19. Plum Rhinoceros- Edith Warform Rebel

The Night will end in about 22 hours at 12:00 AM EDT, 8/9/21

[Amethyst Scorpion]

Good. Tuatara should probably be next. Who else? Dragonfly?

[Opal Lion]

Well, that's a relief. I had been doubting near the end due to Heron's reactions, but I generally favour voting patterns and Tuatara's response makes no sense except as a ploy to splinter the vote. From the vote numbers, we now know Tuatara is not in workform. I would advise Tuatara as tomorrow's lynch target. (Tuatara could've shifted to Mediationform, IDK.) [Edit: I mean workform, tonight. God, my brain...]

Claiming not to be a Villager during a key vote threatens to splinter the vote and reads like an Elim attempt to see if an alternate train can gain sufficient traction to save their Mediationform. Heron deliberately ignoring their suspicion of Tuatara D4 to go on Hyena looks suspicious:

Quote

 

Beagle (3): Tuatara, Hyena, Dragonfly
Tuatara (3): Mouse, Falcon, Beagle
Hyena (3): Lion, Rhino, Vulture
Heron (1): Flamingo
Falcon (1): Heron
Vulture (1): Scorpion

 

There was a three way tie, and Heron pushed onto Hyena rather than Beagle or Tuatara, late in the cycle. Doing so incriminated them needlessly. In my view, this was likely because Tuatara was also Elim. 

N2: Tuatara shows up D2 during the swing from Heron to Penguin, but doesn't vote due to being on mobile.

During D2, I notice Tuatara loitering in the thread enough and @ them over it and ask for their suspicions. Tuatara says:

By N2, when Beagle asks them who they would have voted for if they could, Tuatara says they'd have gone for Heron:

Except they didn't vote on Heron when it counted (remember we had that D2 swing from Heron to Penguin!), and cited out-of-thread reasons. But this was N2, when Heron had already created a PM with me and Rhino. What out-of-thread reasons are those? Reads like an Elim trying to not have to pressure a teammate further.

Despite suspecting Mouse D2, Tuatara has backed off on them by D4:

But something about this post on Beagle reads too knowing, especially in light of the rampant inactivity this game, the fact that Tuatara is in a similar position, and that we have been plagued with inactivity. It reads like a player casting about for convenient suspicions (which happen to be the two players voting on them!) rather than actually gamesolving. This is compounded by what follows:

On N4, Tuatara says this:

Where does Tuatara come by this certainty that Beagle and Heron were confirmed Elim? Self-pres is not by itself suspicious. Vulture was leaning towards Evil Beagle but that was because Vulture already thought Heron was Evil! There was no clear thread consensus on Beagle, nor on Heron, and it reads like a player with TMI.

 

---

The results of this cycle in my view increase my Village credences in Mouse and Flamingo, both of whom were the first to pick up on the inconsistency in Heron's voting patterns. I think it looks a bit better on Mouse, for specifically advancing the Evil Mediationform Heron theory. In the case of Flamingo, on the assumption that the Elim team has five players, we would have lost N6 unless there was a Village workform:

Quote

Case #1: 2 E!Mf

6/4 -> effective vote parity at 6/6

For the game to not be over, we need that one workform to be a Villager, so that Steel would count effective votes as 6/5. It also wouldn't explain why the Elims didn't hammer as they basically could win this.

So I am inclined to give Flamingo weak Village cred. They wouldn't be the first place I'd look for an Elim.

Moreover, if we look back at the votes on past cycles:

This is D4, at the point of Heron's switch. Tuatara was offline and could not switch off Beagle, but Beagle is already on Tuatara. It would be odd for Beagle to join one teammate in voting for another teammate.

Quote

Beagle (3): Tuatara, Hyena, Dragonfly
Tuatara (3): Mouse, Falcon, Beagle
Hyena (3): Lion, Rhino, Vulture
Heron (1): Flamingo
Falcon (1): Heron
Vulture (1): Scorpion

Let's not forget that with regard to D1 voting:

Quote

Rhino (2): Lion<1>, Penguin<1>, Dingo, Swan<3>
Penguin (2): Vulture<1>, Hyena, Vulture<3>
Swan (4): Rhino<1>, Lion<2>, Scorpion<2>, Flamingo, Ross<2>
Tuatara (3): Falcon, Heron <2>, Ross<1>, Mouse
Ross (0): Rhino<2>
Weasel (0): Scorpion<1>, Vulture<2>, Swan<1>
Dingo (2): Rhino<3>, Swan<2>, Dragonfly

It would once again be odd for Mouse to be Elim and to have two Elims voting on a third Elim.

In short, Mouse and Flamingo are non-starters for me.

1 hour ago, Amethyst Scorpion said:

Good. Tuatara should probably be next. Who else? Dragonfly?

I'm interested in why you think Dragonfly is Evil.

I'm also going to say that I'm now increasingly suspicious of Weasel, though not as much as with Tuatara. Tuatara still has to be lynched first, and Tuatara's flip will increase Mouse and Flamingo credences if Tuatara flips Elim. 

I received a mateform gem D7. In my view, there's only one thing a Villager should be doing and that's grabbing workform gems. As Dragonfly and I have emphasised to the thread again and again, controlling workform gems stands between the Village and potential defeat. A player who isn't grabbing a workform gem isn't helping the Village.

@Amber Vulture has commented he distrusts Weasel for gem-hoarding. Given the only extra mateform gem has been with Weasel, it is definitely Weasel who took this action. Moreover, this can't even be proof that Weasel hasn't been doing anything untoward with her action - we have three unaccounted for nimbleform gems, meaning that until we can account for who has taken these gems (likely not Village), night or day actions alone cannot soft clear a player. Be very suspicious of those who attempt to soft-clear themselves this way.

tldr; my current lynch preferences: D8 - Tuatara, if there is a D9, Weasel. If there is a D10, Scorpion. The order may shift based on flips, but in my view, the case for Tuatara next is very clear.

Edited to add: Seeing as that, like Rhino, I may be soon summoned to Valhalla, I am going to commit to redoing voting analysis with the flips, posting my reads, and talking about what we know of the unaccounted for gems, and projections for the road ahead for the Village. I encourage you to do your own reads and analysis because I am just one Lion, but I also encourage you to be careful not to overthink what is known. Revise lower certainty beliefs first. Only then go to the higher certainty ones. I'll talk more about that in the longpost to end all longposts.

Edited August 8, 2021 by Opal Lion
her, not their

[Ivory Dragonfly]

Just in case Lion wants to say something else without doubleposting.

Killing an elim Meditationform should give us the votes to go for Tuatara tomorrow even if they're in Workform, or at least we'll never have a better opportunity. We can't rule out e!Flamingo since the chances of a village Workform are decent given how many Workform gems have gone missing, but Tuatara first and then looking at Scorpion/Weasel sounds good.

Lion getting a Mateform gem could have also been a Scholarform, in which case Workform or Meditationform are still the preferred gems to give out.

[Onyx Flamingo]

14 hours ago, Amethyst Scorpion said:

Good. Tuatara should probably be next. Who else? Dragonfly?

Why Dragonfly, though? If they were elim, it would mean they decided to completely waste a warform gem right away when Dragonfly was not suspected.

[Opal Lion]

6 hours ago, Ivory Dragonfly said:

Just in case Lion wants to say something else without doubleposting.

Thanks Dragonfly

Unfortunately, the text editor ate my longpost, which is discouraging and I guess I'm going to redo it.

Lion's Longpost of Longposts:

A. Updated Vote Analysis

Spoiler

Voting Analysis:

Day One:

Spoiler

So:

Quote

Rhino (2): Lion<1>, Penguin<1>, Dingo, Swan<3>
Penguin (2): Vulture<1>, Hyena, Vulture<3>
Swan (4): Rhino<1>, Lion<2>, Scorpion<2>, Flamingo, Ross<2>
Tuatara (3): Falcon, Heron, Ross<1>, Mouse
Ross (0): Rhino<2>
Weasel (0): Scorpion<1>, Vulture<2>, Swan<1>
Dingo (2): Rhino<3>, Swan<2>, Dragonfly

For D1, there are three key points of interest. On the assumption Tuatara is Evil (which has to be verified tomorrow), the competing Swan train becomes interesting. One Evil player voted on Tuatara but it's unlikely Mouse would stack a fourth vote on an Evil teammate, joining Heron. Evil Mouse wouldn't know that Ross could/would jump off. This is more likely indicative of Village Mouse.

Notice that we have this around mid-cycle:

Quote

Tuatara (4): Falcon, Heron, Ross, Mouse
Dingo (1): Rhino
Swan (2): Scorpion, Lion

That's one hell of a move for Mouse to make if he were Evil. 

But also:

Second, on the assumption Tuatara is Evil, we want to look at the vote movements from Scorpion and Flamingo. We know Ross and Rhino were Village, I know my own alignment. I was also the second, earlier vote on Swan. So generally the issue is of Scorp and Flamingo. I don't want to rely on Flamingo credences here, because we want to know what conclusion we can draw about them. 

Rhino opened up the Swan voting very early into the cycle. This was essentially a poke vote. Within the first 24 hours, Lion joins him to poke an old friend. (As it turns out, Swan really is an old friend. Hi Eiwlil  ) Scorpion goes onto Swan for thirding his poke vote on Weasel.

A few players, myself have included, that noted that Scorp's reaction is rather strong considering that players will stack onto a D1 train. I think if Weasel flips Evil, one should side-eye Scorp for this response. I think a Villager would rightfully be startled, but Scorp's post reads to have stronger emotion than I'd expect from a Villager who realised people have stacked onto their votes, causing a train. Tonally, it's closer to an Elim who distance voted and then flips a chull because a wagon started extremely fast on his teammate.

And then Flamingo votes Swan for voting alongside their key suspicion:

Quote

Tuatara (4): Falcon, Heron, Ross, Mouse
Dingo (2): Rhino, Swan
Swan (3): Scorpion, Lion, Flamingo

Which has the effect of turning the Swan train viable as a competitor to the Tuatara train. I think that Heron was prepared to withdraw from Tuatara in the worst case, but this did not happen as Dragonfly would later vote Dingo, giving us:

Quote

Tuatara (4): Falcon, Heron, Ross, Mouse
Dingo (3): Rhino, Swan, Dragonfly
Swan (3): Scorpion, Lion, Flamingo

Whereas Ross, a known Villager, swaps from Tuatara to Swan, causing the Swan lynch. I've stated before I believe the Elim activity on this day has been peripheral. In my view, it really must be since the Dingo train was almost entirely Villagers. We don't see movements from Tuatara or Beagle or Weasel but it's possible they would've shown up to vote or get Tuatara to self-pres.

Day Two:

Spoiler

Here we go:

Quote

Scorp (0): Lion<1>, Heron<1>
Penguin (2): Vulture<1>, Vulture<2>, Ross<2>, Flamingo<2>
Dingo (0): Rhino<1>, Flamingo<1>
Rhino (0): Dingo<1>
Lion (0): Vulture<2>, Lion<2>
Mouse (0): Ross<1>
Ross (3): Rhino<2>, Lion<3>, Dragonfly, Heron<3>
Vulture (0): Heron<2>
Dragonfly (1): Scorp
Tuatara (2): Heron<4>, Ross<3>
Beagle (1): Beagle

I'm not the best at reading Elims. But I think it's worth asking if Heron's vote on Scorp was distancing, given Rhino had them in the same PM as Dragonfly on D2. Tuatara and Weasel continue non-participation.

Ross creates a tie between himself and Penguin. Heron and Dragonfly both break the tie in close succession, with Dragonfly posting first. Scorp votes Dragonfly for saying that the Elims want a tie, which I think is a bit strong: Dragonfly is saying the Elims would be okay with a tie. I come back to this again despite Scorp's response because it's still an isolated train, and we know now that Elim presence on the main wagons was minimal, which means we must look at side-trains. 

This is an interesting contrast to Scorp's D1 attitude where he went after Swan on the reasoning that the second bad vote to follow a first bad vote is more suspicious. It's not as egregious as Heron D4, but when two players adopt the same anti-tie reasoning you dislike and you go after the first rather than the second, which is directly opposite to what you did the previous day, that's weird. It's especially so because Scorp managed to vote on the Villager (or likely Villager) but not the player we now know was an Elim.

I also feel Scorp is pushing a bit strong here, given the Village doesn't want a tie either. Being anti-tie doesn't necessarily indicate an Elim perspective, and that feels like a reach and an excuse to create a safe side-train.

Day Three:

Spoiler

 

And here's more:

Quote

Falcon (0): Lion<1>, Rhino<3>
Penguin (6): Flamingo, Rhino<2>, Scorp, Lion<3>, Vulture<2>, Rhino<4>, Beagle
Rhino (0): Falcon<1>
Heron (1): Dragonfly, Vulture<1>
Beagle (0): Lion<2>
Vulture (3): Heron, Penguin, Falcon<2>
Flamingo (0): Rhino<1>

Some points of interest:

Heron mentions suspicion of Scorp and sets up a lone Vulture vote, but let's look at it in context:

Quote

My main suspects so far are Dingo, Vulture, Tuatara, Scorpion, and recently Falcon, though that is probably the weakest. I'm willing to give Dingo the benefit of the doubt for now, since they're busy right now. I'm probably not going to vote for Falcon because others have apparently decided they don't like that exe and I'm least confident of my suspicion on them. I'm going to avoid voting on Scorpion as well, because their post this turn is giving me more villager-y vibes, even if I still have that gut read of them. Of Tuatara and Vulture, I think I'm going to have to go for Vulture. Tuatara hasn't been on nearly as much, and I'm beginning to wonder if my gut read of them was simply because of early D1 weirdness. As for Vulture, I still am not a big fan of how they reacted to the Weasel train, the fact that they suspect Rhino, one of my main trusts, and the fact that they so casually dismiss all of their trusts from their stormform suspect list. It all just feels strange to me.

I flag Heron's mention of Scorp and Tuatara because notice Heron employs the same strategy for both of them. They say they're suspicious, attribute it to gut, and then half-walk back the gut. All of Heron's other non-Vulture suspicions have been offered other reasons but these are the only two players Heron half-walks back the suspicion on, as though Heron doesn't actually want other players to take their suspicions that seriously.

This also nicely matches how Tuatara first sussed Mouse and Heron D2, and then said N2 that they are now less suspicious of Heron for out-of-thread reasons. Which could be a common MO running through this Elim team.

It's worth keeping in mind that Heron was a competitive train at the start of this Day, with Dragonfly and Vulture both voting on Heron. Here's a mid-cycle snapshot:

Quote

Beagle (1): Lion
Falcon (1): Rhino
Heron (2): Dragonfly, Vulture
Penguin (2): Scorpion, Flamingo
Vulture (3): Falcon, Penguin, Heron

Heron is a clear Elim on the Vulture train they started. Falcon jumps on to save Penguin, but this is a non-starter anyway because Falcon and Penguin are Villagers. Scorpion follows Penguin onto Flamingo, and it could be a way to try to split the vote or a pre-emptive move to take some pressure off Heron. In any case, Tuatara and Weasel obviously had no real incentive to participate this round, due to the overwhelming majority on Penguin.

 

Day Four:

Spoiler

 

Next time I'm saving the damned thing before trying to post.

Quote

Rhino (0): Lion<1>, Vulture<1>
Falcon (0): Rhino<1>, Heron<1>
Beagle (4): Tuatara, Lion<3>, Vulture<2>, Hyena, Dragonfly<1>, Vulture<4>, Lion<5>
Hyena (4): Lion<2>, Flamingo<1>, Rhino<2>, Lion<4>, Vulture<3>, Heron<2>, Beagle<2>, Dragonfly<2>
Tuatara (2): Mouse, Falcon, Beagle<1>
Vulture (1): Scorp
Heron (1): Flamingo<2>

D4 is the interesting one. We had a competitive three-way train between Tuatara, Beagle, and Hyena, before Heron does the Thing that will haunt them for the rest of the game. Despite constantly naming Tuatara as a suspicion, they ignore Tuatara and go onto Hyena instead. In the process, they save Beagle, but as Flamingo has pointed out, it could also be to avoid voting on Tuatara, a teammate.

As I've pointed out previously: the rampant disorganisation from Vulture-Lion-Dragonfly points to them not being Elims together But I also think that Vulture opposing Heron in voting Beagle, and Dragonfly setting out to vote Beagle are good Village indicators. There's no reason for them to do it given the Elims wanted to save Beagle; it'd be counterproductive.

Mouse voting on Tuatara, in my view, is also a Village move, especially since Tuatara was tied. Elims generally prefer not to clump, especially a peripheral team like this in a scenario like this where there was no threat at the time of Mouse/Beagle's votes. Things changed when it became saving Beagle from death.

Scorp's vote on Vulture here is oddly peripheral, but Weasel didn't vote. Scorp going on Vulture echoes Heron going on Vulture D3 and could be a sign of the team's strategy playing out across two separate Elims. When teams decline to take out talkative players, it's possible they were pushing to see if Village suspicion accrues and they can get them lynched, especially if they're a warform candidate.

Flamingo's vote on Heron here looks better in my view. Yes, it's peripheral, but it's the one question that led to Heron's lynch, and as such, was a clutch move. I don't think an Elim would have pushed a fellow teammate so hard.

 

Day Five:

Spoiler

 

Almost there...

Quote

Flamingo (1): Rhino<1>, Tuatara, Vulture<1>, Scorp<1>
Heron (7): Lion<1>, Flamingo<1>, Mouse, Vulture<2>, Scorp<2>, Beagle, Rhino<4>, Dragonfly, Lion<3>
Weasel (2): Flamingo<2>
Scorpion (0): Heron<1>
Beagle (0): Rhino<2>
Vulture (2): Falcon, Heron<2>, Lion<2>
Mouse (0): Rhino<3>

Tuatara goes early onto Flamingo and then just goes off after that. Weasel shows up, kind of wants to vote, but never does. (What's been stopping her?)

The Elim strategy today appears to have ended up being half-bus and half-opportunism. The real resistance to the Heron lynch was Village-driven, coming from Lion, who jumped on the Vulture countertrain. That train had been started by Falcon, and then Heron went opportunistic. 

I feel like going onto Weasel given the solidity of the Heron train makes me want to give Flamingo light Village credit, but I'm unsure, as this is a side-train. I read it more as exasperated Villager not wanting to deal with more Mediationform BS than an Elim not wanting to vote on Heron, given there was no further commitment to resisting a Heron lynch. In fact, Beagle voted on Heron, so voting on Heron isn't exculpatory for Scorp.

That being said, Scorp's vote comes at:

Quote

Flamingo (2): Rhino, Tuatara
Heron (6): Lion, Flamingo, Mouse, Vulture, Scorpion
Scorpion (1): Heron

So if Scorp and Heron are teammates, Scorp either felt he could pull off later, or like Beagle, was down for a Heron bus. But given the Elim behaviour that day and the fact that Heron was in warform, it looks like the Elims really were going for a bus. (Possibly hoping the Village couldn't be kayana enough to commit to a second warform lynch?)

 

Day Six:

Spoiler

 

Send help.

Quote

Mouse (0): Rhino<1>
Beagle/Falcon (12): Vulture, Lion, Rhino<2>, Scorp, Mouse, Heron, Tuatara, Dragonfly, Flamingo, Weasel
Dragonfly (1): Beagle/Falcon

Another day that was clearly uncontested, so a clear Elim bus. The points of interest here: Heron is clearly reluctant to vote Falcon, despite doing it. Weasel claims she gets to do what she's always wanted, i.e. vote, but what was stopping her before that? Teammates?  Scorp is resistant to voting Falcon at first (group PM), but actually comes around to it rather quickly despite us not patching all the loopholes. Given the fact we know this was a committed bus, that isn't exculpatory.

 

Day Seven:

Spoiler

 

Finally...

Quote

Heron (9): Lion, Flamingo, Vulture, Mouse, Scorpion, Weasel, Dragonfly
Tuatara (2): Heron

Elims clearly bussed. The sole point of interest is Tuatara claiming Elim and refusing to vote. We can see from previous days that Tuatara has no issues bussing if they must. My read of the situation is this was an attempt to split the vote and open the way for an Elim hammer, consistent with Heron insisting they were Village and suspicious of Tuatara. 

Obviously, immense suspicion to Tuatara. A player refusing to back the train at lylo with no voiced objections to Heron is a player whose strategic priorities are not Village. I assume Elims were either lurking logged out, or checking in via Heron and the doc to see if a CW was viable, but in the end, no one took the bait, and so the full train went through.

Note that Tuatara cannot be in workform, but may very well assume it tonight.

 

 

B. Updated Gem Tracker

Spoiler

Updated Gem Tracker:

D1:

Spoiler

- 4 mateform gems [=Scorp, Weasel, Falcon, Penguin]
- 2 scholarform gems [=Mouse, Vulture]
- 3 warform gems [=Heron, Rhino, Dragonfly]
- 1 artform gem [=Beagle]

= 10 gems; that's how we got the 7 who didn't get gems. Swan excluded because lynch is first on OoA, Crocodile excluded though we do know Crocodile succeeded and didn't go for mateform, but their gem went back to the stash so we wouldn't be able to tell which of the gems they went for, just that it wasn't warform/scholarform.

 

D2:

Spoiler

- 2 nimbleform gems [=Tuatara, Weasel]
- 1 artform gem (it me  )
- 2 mediationform gems [=Flamingo, Heron]

= 5 gems

D3:

Spoiler

- 1 nimbleform gem [=Dragonfly]
- 2 mateform gems [=Weasel, Hyena]
- 5 workform gems [=Rhino, Falcon, Flamingo, Heron, ???]

D4:

Spoiler

- 2 nimbleform gems [=???, ???]
- 1 workform gems [=???]
- 1 artform gem [=Tuatara]

D5:

Spoiler

+ 1 artform gem [=Beagle killing Falcon]

D6:

Spoiler

-1 nimbleform [=???]
+1 workform [=Rhino]

We have, in theory, five gems unaccounted for:

3 nimbleform, 2 workform. 

2 nimbleform and 1 workform from D4, 1 workform from D3, and 1 nimbleform from D5.

Note that:

-As of N4, Scorp claimed to have claimed one gem.
-As of N4, Weasel claimed to have taken gems from D1-D3, and specifically, two types in total. This entails they claimed a second mateform gem.

The number of gems grabbed is more than the claims we have. Someone is lying here, and the most likely triad are Tuatara-Weasel-Scorp. Since gems cannot be given back to the stash, only returned on death, we know Beagle either did not secure more gems, or passed them on to teammates. The data tomorrow morning and after Tuatara's lynch should give us clearer information on this issue. While we have unaccounted for workform and especially nimbleform gems, day and night actions do not softclear. Players could easily be hidden nimbleforms using their actions to appear as if they can't have put in the night kill.

The lack of other missing mateform gems is also why I know Weasel burned their action giving me one rather than securing workform gems. 

 

C. Updated Reads List

Spoiler

Trust Tiers: [=Only revise/revisit once lower tiers/tiers beloew are gone]

Village: Tier One/Highest Confidence

My general view on the highest confidence tier is I'm very certain these players are Villagers. At this point in the game, there's no reason to second-guess them unless issues emerge with lower confidence tiers. 

Often, we worry about getting played. Manipulation is the name of the game in SE. But paranoia is not evidence. Paranoia that asks you to override evidence is not a good thing. And moreover, even deepwolves must bite at some point. My question is: if Dragonfly, Vulture, or Mouse are deepwolves and thus Elim, shouldn't they have bitten rather than lose their Mediationform?

Spoiler

• Ivory Dragonfly

My view is that there are many reasons to think Dragonfly Village. There was little reason for the Elims to try a WGG on Dragonfly N2, given that a number of players, myself included, had been vocal about the fact we considered Dragonfly to be Village. Moreover, Dragonfly explicitly indicated a preference D4 for breaking the tie to lynch Beagle, whom we now know is Evil/Malibu. The main reason Dragonfly went back on Hyena was because myself, Vulture, and Beagle were all messing with the final results. I also point out there is no reason for Elims to be this disorganised as they would know what each other were doing. This gives me reason to read Vulture and Dragonfly as Village.

• Amber Vulture

Vulture has been helpful, and note that it was Vulture's flipping out over being joined on a Hyena train by Heron that led to vote switching mess on D4. Elim Vulture would potentially be fine with this, since it saves Beagle and Tuatara. Vulture was the first player to call Falcon out for reasons independent of Malibu, and Vulture has generally been an active player focused on gamesolving. If Vulture were Evil, then it is strange for Vulture to be pushing so hard on getting Heron lynched D5, even PMing myself and Flamingo, especially considering how much Heron has been fighting the lynch! I note that Vulture's D2 tunnel on me doesn't make sense for an Elim - Elims, especially as we're seeing this team play, don't like to put themselves out there, and with how personal my squabbling with Vulture was getting, it risks looking like a shoddy train on my flip. Elims have better moves to make and better arguments to use (sorry Vulture  )

Lean Village: Tier Two/Moderate Confidence

I am generally considering all in this tier de facto Villagers unless something goes wrong with the lower tiers. I am less confident than I am in the Tier Ones but this is just how credences work. All I'm saying is I'd be more willing to reconsider if Flamingo is Evil than I am to reconsider if Vulture is Evil.

Spoiler

• Azure Mouse

Mouse has been helpful. I also appreciate Mouse's choosing to stay Village after all and his RP  If we take how hard Heron fought to stay alive (even PMing me and Rhino D5 to try to get us to swap our votes shortly before rollover), I don't really think the Elim team have much to gain from Mouse and Flamingo pushing the Heron argument. As Rhino pointed out, if Mouse had converted, there's a good chance the game would have ended, based off common distro assumptions. I can also confirm Mouse's account of the voidgem via the player who had been given a voidgem but declined to switch teams. Mouse was key to taking down the Elim Mediationform and I don't see the Elims giving us this kind of advantage willingly, judging from Heron's and Tuatara's reactions. I think in terms of voting patterns, especially if Tuatara is Evil, Mouse will have voted alongside an Elim on Tuatara at least twice (D1, D4), and in both times, it endangered Tuatara, putting them in serious danger of being lynched. This is not a reasonable response from an Elim in my view, and it makes them Village to me.

• Onyx Flamingo

Has been helpful too, and was the other player who pointed out Heron's inconsistencies. Backtracked a bit on Heron C6 though, which is something to keep an eye on. Has not been using their powers for Evil  Their response to being accused of Malibu generally strikes me as the tone of a frustrated Villager, and given weak distro assumptions, unless we know we have a Village workform, knowing that Heron flipped Elim makes it less likely Flamingo is Elim as well.

Lean Elim: Tier Three/Low Confidence

I am not fully sold on which way these tiers should go. It could be Weasel first or Scorp first. My current inclination is to lynch Weasel first but I think it could just as easily be Scorp. I think we need further information, but Weasel's gemstone actions aren't encouraging.

I note that it is likely that Scorp, Weasel, and Tuatara have lied about their Day actions in a context likely to endanger Flamingo, so that's a bad look for all of them. (I'll elaborate on this when talking about the gemstone mystery.)

Spoiler

• Amethyst Scorpion

I'm wary of his sudden suspicion of Dragonfly, which is consistent with Beagle's pre-death D6 attempt to vote on Dragonfly. Peripheral voting patterns through D4, with no strong suspicions, which could generally be an Elim dilemma as the Village narrows down the PoE. 

"Lynch me last" isn't really a typical Elim response, though, and unlike Heron, he was more open to voting on Falcon D6 though there really wasn't that much resistance, to be fair.

D7 post on not accidentally incriminating himself was tonally odd. If we do buy Scorp's assertion there was at most one Elim on Swan D1, which to be fair, I think isn't a stretch, then it's down to Flamingo or Scorp. It's possible this was an all-Villager train but given their lynch behaviour, I'd be more inclined to think if there was an Elim, it was Scorp. This also explains Scorp's overrreaction to the poke vote on Weasel - he wanted to distance from his teammate, not damn his teammate. I think the voting analysis generally looks worse on Scorp, but then, Scorp has more of a record than Weasel does.

• Indigo Weasel

As Vulture said, hoarding gems isn't a good look. I actually think Weasel is Mist, and if so, this is normal behaviour for her, but even so  We don't have too much of a voting history for Weasel due to her reluctance to vote until D6, so that's difficult to work with. That being said, it's interesting to me that Weasel handed me a mateform gem D7. This could be an attempt to check if I was in nimbleform, and if so, to force me back into dullform. But what's really relevant to me is that if Weasel is giving me a mateform gemstone, then she's not claiming and grabbing a workform gemstone, which is what we need Villagers to do to stave off defeat. It doesn't matter if she is already in nimbleform - if she is, then she can use both actions to grab the gemstone, increasing the odds of Village possession of the gemstone. That being said, I get that it could be a playstyle/preference thing, so. I note that it's also odd to me that Beagle didn't try to possess Weasel - Weasel and Falcon are probably the best activity matches for Beagle, and with Weasel's lurking tendencies, Beagle might have gotten away with being Weasel. [Note that this is defeasible since mateforms are more trackable, but even so.]

Elim: Tier Four/Lowest Confidence

Spoiler

• Cream Tuatara

As I pointed out: Heron's vote attempted to save them D4, by selecting Hyena instead of Tuatara or Beagle, despite voiced suspicions of Tuatara. Some odd posts that I've flagged, including quick retraction of suspicion of Heron (note this suspicion was very hedged), the tonally odd post that reads like them shopping for suspicions and landing on the two players who sussed them, and them being suddenly dead certain Beagle was Evil despite Village confusion, suggesting TMI.

Tuatara claimed Elim D7 as well. This reads like an attempt to save Heron by splitting the wagon, opening the way for an Elim hammer. Since Heron is Evil, this doesn't look good for Tuatara. In my view, Tuatara is the next obvious lynch target.

 

D. The Road Ahead

Spoiler

• As I see it, the road ahead is daunting for the Village. But we did it before, and we'll do it again. (No, I'm not citing the National Day song, why do you ask >>) Essentially, it's not an easy fight because we're in perma-lylo, and we need to keep getting it right. Everyone has to vote to prevent an Elim hammer.
   
• It is critical to secure and keep securing any workform gems in the stash. It doesn't matter if you have a form we need (e.g. Mediationform, warform.) Having the gems in our inventory means we don't have to play guessing games as to whether we have enough voting power to hit a workform Elim. Even if inventory gems can be targeted by decayform, the primary objective is to deny the Elims access to the gems and the need to pick their counterwagons carefully. If you happen to be able to put the form on, even better. Steel tracks the wincon by voting parity so Village control of workform gems is crucial to success.
   
• I request Villagers do not convert. Honestly, we're not in the best position this game (understatement), and a Village conversion is likely (though not guaranteed) to ensure a Village loss. At the same time, players are going to player, and I advise the Village not dwell overly on this possibility. I expect the Elim team to continue to try to distribute Evil gems to sew chaos. We cannot control what other players do, we can only request them to stay with us. Ultimately, we should focus on what we can control, and that's lynching correctly.
   
• In my view, suspicions should never be static. But paranoia itself is not an argument. Nor is it evidence. If possible deepwolves continue to pass up opportunities to stab the Village in the back, we need to be clear that the only thing causing us to consider them deepwolves is paranoia. Even deepwolves must bite at some point. I advise revising lower-certainty trusts first, before going to higher-certainty trusts. For me, I would argue that higher-tier trusts should not be revised unless something very odd happens. Always go lower-tier first when searching for your Elims.
   
• We are in a state of perma-lylo. It is critical all Villagers continue to stay engaged with the game, continue to give their reads/thoughts, make their voices heard, and most importantly, vote. I am only one Lion and these are my thoughts. Everyone else should be contributing too. That's how we correct each other's mistakes and read each other. More importantly, we are in danger of losing to an Elim hammer if not everyone votes. I also expect the Elims to start taking out either our Mediationform (which is good, as that gives us a clear bead on Scorp), or potential Village rallying points with their NK. Killing within the PoE would be pointless and would help us instead. I expect Flamingo, myself, and Dragonfly to be marked for death soon. Doubtful they'll waste a kill on Vulture because warform.
   
• While disagreeing on the lynch target is normal and healthy, especially as we hit D9/D10, we need to be prepared to come to a consensus by mid-Day. This is a bit conservative as an estimate, but allows us to account for timezones or players who may not be on board with a last minute end-Day switch. If we get hammered, we lose. We have to avoid giving the Elims a window for a hammer.
   
• My current thoughts would be: D8 Tuatara > D9 Scorp > D10 Weasel, but as I've said before, the exact Scorp/Weasel order is negotiable and I'd like to hear other player thoughts on this. If Weasel or Scorp are in nimbleform, they could be responsible for our missing workform gems.

Thank you for subscribing to Lion 2.0 pinch-hitting services! Please rate our service on our Frostlands appstore! Stay safe out there and stay frosty!

[Steeldancer]

The night is over! The day will start when I get around to it. 
Oops I posted this two minutes early. My bad. If anyone submits actions in the next two minutes, I'll still accept them lol 

Edited August 9, 2021 by Steeldancer

[Steeldancer]

LG79/AN10 Day 8: Survival
Pavli sighed at the idea of continuing on, but like the others, Thane's speech had convinced her to continue on. "If we're going to figure out food and shelter, then we need to go figure it out now."
The group hummed to the rhythm of Appreciation. 
Moirin stood up. "We're going to need to go to a human village. I believe there is one nearby."
The group silenced, and then the rhythm of Surprise could be heard. Why would the humans have any reason to give them anything? 
"I would never suggest this normally," explained Moirin, "but there are no other places we can go to get resources. Once there, we can either choose to negotiate, or steal from them if necessary. Hopefully they won't just immediately summon the Radiants. We have no real defense against them."
Thane sang to consideration. "Let's do it, unless anyone has any better ideas."
Nobody spoke up, and the rhythm shifted to that of Resolve. It would be a dangerous thing to do. 
But survival came first. 

Unfortunately, one of them would not live to meet the humans, as when they were packing up camp, Atticus was murdered as he was happily painting a picture of a strange animal. 
---
Opal Lion was killed! They were a Artform Rebel!
Village Stash

Spoiler

Nimbleform Gem- 3
Workform Gem- 1
Mateform Gem- 3
Artform Gem- 4

Player List

Spoiler

1. Amber Vulture
2. Amethyst Scorpion
3. Azure Mouse
4. Charcoal Hyena Mateform Rebel
5. Chartreuse Penguin- Elrin Mateform Rebel
6. Coral Swan Dullform Rebel
7. Cream Tuatara
8. Emerald Falcon Mavset-im
9. Fuchsia Ostrich Dullform Rebel
10. Indigo Weasel
11. Ivory Dragonfly- Kethri
12. Magenta Albatross Dullform Rebel
13. Mauve Crocodile  Dullform Rebel
14. Melon Dingo Dullform Rebel
15. Mint Heron- Chashen Mediationform Servant
16. Onyx Flamingo
17. Opal Lion- Atticus Artform Rebel
18. Oxblood Beagle- Jalnor Workform Rebel
19. Plum Rhinoceros- Edith Warform Rebel

The day will end in 48 hours at noon EDT, 8/11/21. 
If this game goes beyond that point, my schedule will get a bit wonky around noon, so I may move rollover into the morning. 

[Amber Vulture]

Okay, that flip surprises me less. Sorry again for the early game sussing

Last thing they said to me was kill Flamingo, so here goes. Flamingo  

[Ivory Dragonfly]

Poor Lion made it this far just to die now. The elims still aren't going for the claimed Meditationform, which is interesting, but I'm still going to vote for Cream Tuatara because they're more likely to be evil. A net of three Workform gems were taken, and it's quite possible the one still in the stash previously belonged to Lion.

[Azure Mouse]

1 minute ago, Amber Vulture said:

Okay, that flip surprises me less. Sorry again for the early game sussing

Last thing they said to me was kill Flamingo, so here goes. Flamingo  

*blink* ...k then.

Care to elaborate?

I'm going to vote Tuatara, because I agree they are more likely to be evil. I am suspicious that Flamingo has not yet been killed, however. Something to note is that Lion was softing Mediationform, right as another vote appeared in the VC- the elims may have targeted him at least partially because of this.

[Amethyst Scorpion]

30 minutes ago, Amber Vulture said:

Okay, that flip surprises me less. Sorry again for the early game sussing

Last thing they said to me was kill Flamingo, so here goes. Flamingo  

Umm, we have to all vote together. If you can convince enough people to switch, I’m not opposed to voting Flamingo necessarily, but I think Tuatara is the better confirmed Elim right now. I’d hope you’ll consider joining us in voting them out first, then going after Flamingo next time if you’re sure.

[Onyx Flamingo]

I accuse Tuatara for reasons of claiming in the thread to be evil.

[Indigo Weasel]

I agree that Tuatara is a very likely elim candidate, because Heron's voting and the claim especially. 

Edit: oh yes. We, edit edit: I...sorry, need to be better at discussing. I find it unlikely that Flamingo is elim, so Vulture's thing makes me think

Edit edit edit: last elim (if there's 4) is most likely in 1-3, others would include 10 (myself), I know I'm not. 

Flamingo was/is kinda mechanically confirmed. 

I think Mouse was village, current state not much clue, probably vill?

Edit 4: ... I mean also that's kinda contrary to what Lion has said. Edit 5: that is Vulture's thing. 1 sec I'll go look at the last post.

Also yeah careful about paranoia. 

Edit 6: hm okay I guuueeeeessssssssss. Still a bit ... to me

Edit 7: 17:44 MT I'm going to be doing this a lot huh. I have done this a lot. 

Oh yes hey @Amber Vulture did Lion say anything else? Or why? Or why it's not something they said in thread?

Edited August 9, 2021 by Indigo Weasel

[Amber Vulture]

Yeah, I just wanted to see if anyone bit on a Flamingo wagon. Interesting that nobody did, but at this point the elims are probably going with the flow until they can get a fatigue mix. Tuatara is definitely more sus for explicitly saying they aren't village. So yes, please everybody vote for them. Tuatara Flamingo