Opal Lion Posted August 3, 2021 Posted August 3, 2021 (edited) 26 minutes ago, Plum Rhinoceros said: Can't we just like... Be honest, Tuatara was calling for Mouse's head in our PM so I just wanted to remind people that we shouldn't actually do this and what Mouse does is not in our control but it's counterproductive either way so yeaaaah >> Edited to add: We have an additional artform gem. Beagle took our artform gem D1. Clarifying something with Steel right now. Edit #2: Players who have not checked in in PMs (please let me know if they've said something): - @Amethyst Scorpion - @Emerald Falcon @Onyx Flamingo and @Mint Heron have also not checked in, but we know you can't be Taken. All the same, if anyone wants to do a welfare check, it'll be welcome Edited August 3, 2021 by Opal Lion
Amber Vulture Posted August 3, 2021 Posted August 3, 2021 2 hours ago, Azure Mouse said: So Azure Mouse grabbed Scholarform D1, YOU We must proceed as if it's a winnable game. Best we can do right now is a kill an elim. So I'll vote for Falcon
Plum Rhinoceros Posted August 3, 2021 Posted August 3, 2021 (edited) 13 minutes ago, Amber Vulture said: YOU I admit I laughed But I agree. Falcon, you're arrested for being Malibu. Lion Police Dept. finally narrowed down the case. Edited August 3, 2021 by Plum Rhinoceros
Azure Mouse Posted August 3, 2021 Posted August 3, 2021 38 minutes ago, Amber Vulture said: YOU We must proceed as if it's a winnable game. Best we can do right now is a kill an elim. So I'll vote for Falcon Yes, me Falcon.
Plum Rhinoceros Posted August 3, 2021 Posted August 3, 2021 (edited) Alright now let's play the narrow-down-the-rest-of-the-elim-team game. Which is much easier now Original Pool: [Beagle, Tuatara, Scorpion, Mouse, Falcon, Flamingo, Weasel, Heron, Vulture] We can take out Beagle because they're OG Malibu, who's currently inhabiting Falcon- so we can take them out as well. Flamingo and Mouse are confirmed village for parity reasons. New Pool: [Tuatara, Scorpion, Weasel, Heron, Vulture] Four out of five people here are elim, pretty sure. Interestingly, two of these voted Beagle D4, Vulture and Tuatara, but Tuatara voted Beagle nearly 12 hours before rollover and never came back online to see them as a serious contender. (For reference, the VC when they voted Beagle was Tuatara:3 and Hyena:3 so theirs was the first Beagle vote. Don't know why they didn't just vote Hyena but eh) and Vulture actually voted them at the end of the cycle. Making my complete elim team guess to be: Emerald Falcon (Mavset-im 2.0, Beagle being the first), Amethyst Scorpion, Cream Tuatara, Indigo Weasel, and Mint Heron Which is unfortunate because it means I misread Scorpion, Tuatara, and periodically Heron right from the start. Brilliant. Thoughts? Concerns? Edit: I fact-checked this against the rest of the vote counts to see if it holds up- it totally holds up guys this actually makes sense :P. Edited August 3, 2021 by Plum Rhinoceros I really want this to be right and for us to make it to a Day Eleven :eyes:
Plum Rhinoceros Posted August 3, 2021 Posted August 3, 2021 (edited) Oops Award! Oops Award! Edited August 3, 2021 by Plum Rhinoceros Aw man this is a double post now
Amethyst Scorpion Posted August 3, 2021 Posted August 3, 2021 21 minutes ago, Plum Rhinoceros said: Making my complete elim team guess to be: Emerald Falcon (Mavset-im 2.0, Beagle being the first), Amethyst Scorpion, Cream Tuatara, Indigo Weasel, and Mint Heron Unfortunately you’re wrong. About me, and about probably several others (I don’t suspect Tuatara or Weasel, though I do suspect Heron). That makes me suspect you now.
Plum Rhinoceros Posted August 3, 2021 Posted August 3, 2021 (edited) 6 minutes ago, Amethyst Scorpion said: Unfortunately you’re wrong. About me, and about probably several others (I don’t suspect Tuatara or Weasel, though I do suspect Heron). That makes me suspect you now. Mhm I definitely got WGGd and pushed to get rid of Heron's extra life instead of letting the Vulture exe swing go through. Sad though because I really did village read you. Edited August 3, 2021 by Plum Rhinoceros forgot a word
Amethyst Scorpion Posted August 3, 2021 Posted August 3, 2021 (edited) 1 minute ago, Plum Rhinoceros said: Mhm I definitely got WGGd and pushed to get rid of Heron's extra life instead of letting the Vulture swing go through. Sad though because I really did village read you. Meh, I did forget that. So you’re probably village, but you’re still wrong about me at least. That means you could easily be wrong about others too. Edit: right now I’m trusting Opal’s reads more than yours. Edited August 3, 2021 by Amethyst Scorpion
Plum Rhinoceros Posted August 3, 2021 Posted August 3, 2021 1 minute ago, Amethyst Scorpion said: Edit: right now I’m trusting Opal’s reads more than yours. I'm personally wondering what they are, after this last cycle. Cause mine definitely changed.
Opal Lion Posted August 3, 2021 Posted August 3, 2021 (edited) Note: This could be wrong. If this is wrong, @Emerald Falcon, you'll want to check in with Rhino, Vulture, or Dragonfly in one of your existing PMs, please. This is to avoid a costly mislynch >> D1 gem distributions: Quote Did Not Get Gem: <Ross, Hyena, Ostrich, Lion, Flamingo, Tuatara, Dingo> Mateforms: <Scorp, Penguin, Falcon, Weasel> Warforms: <Dragonfly, Heron, Rhino> Scholarforms: <Vulture, Mouse> Artform: <Beagle> Here is what I suspect: Steel has clarified that if Malibu kills a target, the gemstones that go back to the appropriate stash are Malibu's. So if Malibu takes over a player, then any Village gems Malibu has goes back to the Village stash, while any Elim gems Malibu has goes back to the Elim stash. If Beagle is Malibu, then Malibu claimed an artform gem D1. Beagle then proceeded to take over Falcon, who was in workform. Hence the write-up telling us both that a workform rebel died and that an artform gem is in the Village stash. Commentary/Thoughts: Remember we started with the question of which players could be Malibu. The first hypothesis was that Malibu was among those who did not get gems D1. Of those, four players have died and been confirmed as Villagers. Of the three remaining: <Lion, Flamingo, Tuatara> I am demonstrably in artform. Flamingo demonstrated last Day with two votes on Weasel that they are in mediationform. This leaves Tuatara, who has claimed to be in nimbleform. Dragonfly has claimed receiving one Day PM from Tuatara. Can those who can confirm receiving a second Day PM from Tuatara please come forward? That being said, for the moment, suppose we have weak evidence that Tuatara is in nimbleform. We know the warforms can't be Malibu. Moreover, we have evidence that Dragonfly, Heron, and Rhino all acquired warform D1. OG!Falcon can't be Malibu - if so, Penguin would've said something. Same for Weasel, as Hyena would've said something. Malibu can't take another form. So there are two questions we need to juggle. 1. What did Malibu do D1? -Malibu did not get a gem. If so, this makes Malibu Tuatara. -Malibu got an artform gem. If so, that makes Malibu Beagle. Other possibilities require Malibu to have been Mouse who got the artform gem D1 and then pretended to be a Scholar, requiring someone else on the team (Tuatara?) to be the actual Scholar, and then Malibu passed the artform gem to Beagle. Thing is, if Malibu is Mouse, then we can trust the write-up which says Beagle is Village. So this is a contradictory line of thought, especially since Beagle should have mentioned acquiring a random gem, and kills come first. -Malibu got a mateform gem. If so, that makes Malibu Scorpion. It would also make Weasel an Elim. 2. Who is in our Malibu pool? <Mouse, Heron, Beagle>, with outsider possibilities being <Tuatara, Scorpion, and Vulture> Warform is impossible to fake. Scholarform is not, but for Vulture to be Malibu almost necessarily requires both Scholarform gems to have gone to Elims, and a lot of role lying. Not impossible, but distinctly...odd . I give that low probability. Vulture hasn't really been behaving too much like an Elim, either. Heron just ruled themselves out last Day, due to the warform reveal. We have soft reason to believe Tuatara is nimbleform. This needs to be confirmed. Scorp is the last option. Not much comment there, except that it would make Weasel an Elim too. If Beagle is Malibu, then Beagle claimed an artform gem D1, and this explains why they've been so careful to soft warform and scholarform but refuse to roleclaim. Because being asked to confirm their role would inevitably lead to trouble. This would also be consistent with Mouse claiming they didn't go for the Scholarform gem D1. [Edit: artform, sorry, my brain.] I'm inclined to believe Mouse's Scholarform claim. Little reason to lie about that, and Malibu Mouse has little reason to build up to the RP and then the copious venting in thread and PM. Lower probability to this option. The issue with anyone else being Malibu is it requires us to believe Beagle got an artform gem D1, and just never used it. Just. Never. Attuned it. And that's just odd - Beagle could easily switch forms. Why didn't he? Most players go for a gem they want, after all. Conspiracy Theories: Suppose that Beagle really isn't Malibu. Then there are only three options for Malibu, because the D1 gemstone numbers don't lie, even if players do: A. Mouse Mouselibu has a hidden scholar on the team (e.g. Tuatara), and Mouse is simply reading off what the scholar said. Thing is, Tuatara hasn't met the Scholarform requirements in a while, so IDK. Be nice to get confirmation - e.g. if Tuatara can use their nimbleform double action today. B. Tuatara Possible, and verifiable by nimbleform confirmation. C. Scorpion Requires Weasel is lying for Scorpion, minimally. But as pointed out, it's weird to get a gem and not attune it. Even for Beagle. They could swap to a gem they liked later, but... I'm going to say there are essentially two things we need at this point in time. We're at lylo, or very close to it, but I'm just gonna say we should say we're at lylo. A. We really, really need @Emerald Falcon to check in in a PM. This is the only thing that will convince me to remove my vote from you. B. Secondarily, we really need @Cream Tuatara (sorry!) to re-confirm being in nimbleform. To this end, I'd request: please create two PMs this Turn. You can put anyone in them you like, but PM #1 should contain Dragonfly. PM #2 should contain me. We really do not want to mislynch today, so I apologise for being a bit insistent about this. Also: 11 minutes ago, Amethyst Scorpion said: Edit: right now I’m trusting Opal’s reads more than yours. Funny you say that. Guess who doesn't trust his reads anymore 9 minutes ago, Plum Rhinoceros said: I'm personally wondering what they are, after this last cycle. Cause mine definitely changed. What are reads what is analysis I don't do that drek >> Edited August 3, 2021 by Opal Lion
Mint Heron Posted August 3, 2021 Posted August 3, 2021 I’m not sure I completely understand how we narrowed Malibu to Falcon, but I think this makes more sense than any of the crazier options. At least, going off of what Lion said.
Cream Tuatara Posted August 3, 2021 Posted August 3, 2021 Well, here's my required Falcon. I'll do one PM with Opal, Rhino, and Vulture, and another with Dragonfly, Flamingo, and Mouse.
Opal Lion Posted August 3, 2021 Posted August 3, 2021 (edited) Confirming receipt of the first PM from Tuatara. Thank you, Tuatara, and I'm sorry our consistent failures to find an Elim has brought us to this. Edit: @Mint Heron Simply put, once we confirm Tuatara, the only other options for Malibu are current!Falcon and Scorpion, barring some elaborate lying set-up involving Mouse and Tuatara. Tuatara actually being in nimbleform more or less reduces this probability to über-tinfoil level, since this lie requires Tuatara to be in scholarform. I think it is unlikely for Scorpion to be Malibu, unlikely enough that I'm voting for Falcon. To me, the fact we have an artform gem in the stash is telling. There are no second choices for gems. Players select a gem they want. Why would Beagle go for artform and then never attune to it and get workform instead? Why wouldn't Beagle attune to artform and then later re-attune to workform? Why would Beagle soft warform and scholarform? Why would Beagle finally relent enough to say he was not warform but never claim an actual form? Why would Mouse say they didn't go for artform D1? The simple answer: Beagle was Malibu. Beagle claimed that gem D1, but unlike a regular player, could not use it. Falcon claimed by N3/D4 to have been in a different form. Falcon must've taken workform, and then gotten hijacked by Beagle. If I am mistaken, as I have previously been about Flamingo, all Falcon has to do is to answer a PM that Rhino, Dragonfly, or Vulture is in. That's all. In fact, while they're at it, answer all their fanmail. I'm sure everyone's worried If so, I will immediately retract and go to Scorpion as that's the only valid Malibu option left. Edited to add 2: Attuning doesn't cost anything, just a night action. Did Beagle have anyone he wanted to PM that badly he would forgo using a gem that was his D1 first choice? Remember that workform gems only disappeared D3. If so, that's two Nights Beagle preferred to remain in dullform rather than attune a gem he picked on D1. That really doesn't make sense. Players like having roles, in general. Edited to add 3: See gem tracker here: Edited to add 4: Sorry because I'm apparently disorganised today- Beagle going workform D3 makes so little sense because it requires Beagle to forgo using a gem he wanted D1 when he could've just claimed the workform gem D1 or D2. We could say that workform was not his first choice, perhaps he lost out in the mediationform brawl, but then why not just go mediationform D1? That doesn't jive. Simple answer: Beagle is Malibu. Well, was. Poor Falcon. Edited August 3, 2021 by Opal Lion
Amber Vulture Posted August 3, 2021 Posted August 3, 2021 3 hours ago, Plum Rhinoceros said: I admit I laughed I'm actually so peeved because this whole time I thought the elims had grabbed it and cooked up something juicy. That a villager had it and sat on it is disappointing. I wonder if the elims were just low risk tolerance and didn't want to be caught having not grabbed a village gem if we went crazy with the PM unsafety
Opal Lion Posted August 3, 2021 Posted August 3, 2021 3 hours ago, Plum Rhinoceros said: I admit I laughed Me too tbh. 3 hours ago, Plum Rhinoceros said: But I agree. Falcon, you're arrested for being Malibu. Lion Police Dept. finally narrowed down the case. We can only hope.
Ivory Dragonfly Posted August 3, 2021 Posted August 3, 2021 Scorpion has replied in a PM today, so they're definitely not M-I. I can also confirm receiving a PM from Tuatara today that also contains Flamingo and Mouse.
Opal Lion Posted August 3, 2021 Posted August 3, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, Ivory Dragonfly said: Scorpion has replied in a PM today, so they're definitely not M-I. I can also confirm receiving a PM from Tuatara today that also contains Flamingo and Mouse. Scorpion option wouldn't be Scorpion being taken over by Malibu. It's what I consider a more 'outsider' option because it requires Scorpion to have been Malibu all along, with Weasel going along (as an Elim teammate) to pretend that Scorp is really in mateform (and therefore not Malibu.) This option entails that Beagle really is workform and Village and just kind of died without ever attuning artform. I consider this outsider for several reasons including: -Unlikely for Beagle to not attune artform, having gotten the gem D1 (why go for a gem you don't want? What better things do you have to do with your night action? Why not attune N2? If you wanted workform, why not go for it D1/D2? What player likes being roleless?) -Beagle being Malibu is consistent with his behaviour up to this point. I'd argue more so than Scorp. -Beagle being Malibu neatly explains why the NK didn't go for me, Vulture, you, Rhino, or Flamingo. Beagle is an odd option for a NK because Beagle was still attracting some heat. But simply put, with Heron being confirmed as a D1 warform, and Mouse being suggested as our Scholarform and having denied going for artform, Beagle felt the net closing about him and felt he had to jump to survive. All of us are too chatty / active to be a good match with Beagle, and in Flamingo's case, a dead mediationform stinks to the high heavens. The only realistic options would have been: <Scorp, Weasel, Tuatara, Heron, Falcon.> I think the fact he did not go for Heron can be attributed to a combination of: hard to hide, and possibly, Heron being his teammate. If a warform shows up dead, suspicion automatically accrues to <Heron, Vulture, Rhino>, probably just Heron and Vulture. Vulture is too active, so PoE would immediately net us Heron. Tuatara is a no-no: they talk in PMs, and even if they didn't, a nimbleform showing up dead would immediately lead to calls for Tuatara to prove they were still nimbleform. (Potentially, also a teammate IDK.) To me, the real point of interest is that he went for Falcon over Weasel. Falcon and Weasel are the only two realistic options that would have been an activity match. Given Weasel hasn't been saying much in thread, though Weasel does talk somewhat in PMs (maybe there's an active PM group with Weasel? Anyone know?), it could be hard to impersonate Weasel as well. Possibly Scorp, but even with Scorp, that's a little hard. Going Falcon over Weasel lightly suggests that Weasel is Elim as well. tldr; Scorp!Malibu has no reason to hop. Beagle!Malibu does. Falcon seems to be one of the best chances for him to do that without getting caught -Weasel and Scorp pretending to be in mateform is weird. Weirder things have happened in this game but doing so directly connects them both to the extent that if we lynched Scorp, we'd almost certainly lynch Weasel, giving us a 2-for-1 Elim team connection. Given they tacitly claimed mateform D2, I'm not really sure this makes sense, even if it's not impossible (hence outsider.) Edited to add: Oh, and weirder things have happened but Falcon was very fast to check in D5. In fact, they rushed so much they used a PM of mine that was supposed to be closed. Again, RL happens, we get busy, but I feel this is uncharacteristic enough that I'm not especially uncomfortable about keeping my vote on Falcon until or unless Falcon checks in in their PMs. Edited to add #2: Oh yeah I left Mouse out. I think scholarform is also hard to replicate ( ) and given Mouse's RP, they potentially didn't want to kill a player who might be willing to turn, or who might be using a night action to turn. So no bueno to Mouse as a target. Edited to add #3: In fact, since as Dragonfly pointed out, no votes disappeared off Beagle previously, this requires Beagle to be seriously allergic to attuning both artform (having kept hold of the gem from D1) and workform (gemstone claimed D3, attuned only N4.) Edited August 4, 2021 by Opal Lion
Ivory Dragonfly Posted August 4, 2021 Posted August 4, 2021 Well here's my vote for Emerald Falcon. Now we just see if the Meditationforms are villagers.
Onyx Flamingo Posted August 4, 2021 Posted August 4, 2021 J'accuse! Falcon, your silence is reason enough for your execution.
Opal Lion Posted August 4, 2021 Posted August 4, 2021 (edited) So, specifically for the case of Mediationform worries. This projection ignores Villagers converting into Elims ( why D: ) because that just messes with things by adding an additional layer of complexity, and in the end, I'm convinced players are gonna player so there's no point in thinking too hard about an additional factor we can't control. We can do a unique PoE for anyone who might have mediationform: Spoiler 1. Amber Vulture - No (D5 voting, opened PM.) 2. Amethyst Scorpion - No (D5 voting, opened PM.) 3. Azure Mouse - No (D5 voting, claimed action) 7. Cream Tuatara - No (D5 voting, proven nimbleform D6) 8. Emerald Falcon - No (suspected Malibu) 10. Indigo Weasel - DON'T KNOW (Never voted, opened PM N5) 11. Ivory Dragonfly- Kethri - No (D5 voting, opened PMs.) 15. Mint Heron- Chashen - No (D5 voting, UNACCOUNTED ACTION) 16. Onyx Flamingo - Yes (D5 voting) 17. Opal Lion- Atticus - No (D5 voting, write-up vandalism) 19. Plum Rhinoceros- Edith - No (D5 voting, opened PM.) OFFICIAL SPLITS: A. 6/5 With 1 Village Mediationform, 0 Elim Mediationform: 7/5 With 0 Village Mediationform, 1 Elim Mediationform: 6/6 With 1 Village Mediationform, 1 Elim Mediationform: 7/6 With 2 Village Mediationform, 0 Elim Mediationform: 8/5 With 0 Village Mediationform, 2 Elim Mediationform: 6/7 B. 7/4 With 1 Village Mediationform, 0 Elim Mediationform: 8/4 With 0 Village Mediationform, 1 Elim Mediationform: 7/5 With 1 Village Mediationform, 1 Elim Mediationform: 8/5 With 2 Village Mediationform, 0 Elim Mediationform: 9/4 With 0 Village Mediationform, 2 Elim Mediationform: 7/6 So there's no way to really say what our Mediationform distribution is. If everyone votes, it'd be good to have certainty. I'm reluctant to press too far into making too many requests of other players, and I don't know how useful requesting Weasel join us in arresting Falcon voting would be, because we're still not sure of Weasel's alignment anyway. But as they pick off more active players, we will need Weasel to actually show up and vote just to maintain dominance, assuming Weasel is Village. And whatever the case, I feel that the Elim team would have to be kayana not to go to activity kills soon. Any kill within the PoE like what happened with Falcon narrows down the PoE. But that being said, if Flamingo is Evil, a hammer could still save Falcon depending on how many voters we have. (I think it's everyone except Falcon and Weasel now.) It just wouldn't be super viable in the B options except for the case where there are two Evil mediationforms. If we're in scenario A, we'd have already lost if both were Evil. If we're in scenario B, I can't see any reason an Elim wouldn't put in an attunement order last Night, at least. Scenario B allows them to reach parity with a hammer if Village Weasel doesn't vote. If it's Elim Weasel then it doesn't matter anyway. On a side-note, players who could not have put in the NK do not matter right now (if it works like the Kohga kill, Beagle had to send in the order anyway), but it might be interesting going forward to tonight, for instance. I think these things should only be voluntary though. No one likes having to play a game like a police state and I'm never comfortable with the extent to which we lean there. Edited to add: 12 hours ago, Plum Rhinoceros said: I really want this to be right and for us to make it to a Day Eleven :eyes: I feel like Steel just screamed internally when he saw this Mouse is right though. If we assume we're in A, it's going to be uphill anyway. We bought ourselves another cycle in which to repeat it. 6/5 - 5/4 and so on. If at any point we are wrong, we immediately hit parity and lose unless the Mediationforms are also Village. And that assumes they stay alive, which is not in our control. Not that it's not worth fighting, and Village is certainly obligated to (journey before destination, right?), but we have very little room for error. With that in mind, what's your Elim teams, guys? Suppose we now defeasibly know Beagle/Falcon is Evil. Who are your new top suspects? Who would you lynch next, if we absolutely had to get it right? Edited August 4, 2021 by Opal Lion
Onyx Flamingo Posted August 4, 2021 Posted August 4, 2021 5 hours ago, Opal Lion said: With that in mind, what's your Elim teams, guys? Suppose we now defeasibly know Beagle/Falcon is Evil. Who are your new top suspects? Who would you lynch next, if we absolutely had to get it right? I... don't know. Beagle being elim has me questioning Heron now, with the voting the other turn. Gut read is still elim, though. Mouse, maybe? Elim!scholar could make sense with them going inactive and being replaced like they were. That RP claim last turn might have been just to explain why the other scholar was seeing an elim gem being made. Then again, why claim at all if no one knew Mouse was scholarform. But why claim at all, even if they were village? It's just... weird. Yeah. I think I'd go for Mouse, actually. So Mouse/Heron(?)/Beagle/???
Opal Lion Posted August 4, 2021 Posted August 4, 2021 9 minutes ago, Onyx Flamingo said: I... don't know. Beagle being elim has me questioning Heron now, with the voting the other turn. Gut read is still elim, though. [OOC: Why, though?] 9 minutes ago, Onyx Flamingo said: Mouse, maybe? Elim!scholar could make sense with them going inactive and being replaced like they were. That RP claim last turn might have been just to explain why the other scholar was seeing an elim gem being made. Then again, why claim at all if no one knew Mouse was scholarform. But why claim at all, even if they were village? It's just... weird. Yeah. I think I'd go for Mouse, actually. [OOC: Still working on my own reads but Vulture claimed to have used the Scholar gem D2 and re-attuned N2 so he's no longer Scholarform. That's why there was so much drama near the end of last Day ]
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