Zillah she/her Posted September 15, 2020 Author Posted September 15, 2020 Eliminators win when they outnumber the village - as stated in the rules doc.
The Young Pyromancer he/him Posted September 15, 2020 Posted September 15, 2020 (edited) Okay, table analysis: Methodology: Spoiler So here I'll be taking each table, cutting all the rolls that don't matter, then calculating how likely each of the remaining rolls are to lead to a village win. After that, weigh the rolls to the odds of rolling them, and you get a number, the higher the better. This method ignores the actions of other players, but since we're just figuring out the optimal table, that shouldn't matter too much. SAFETY: Total score = 30625 Pyro Points Spoiler Table I (SAFETY) Passion of passion You can choose which passion from this table (excluding the passion of teamwork) you would like to use this cycle 15% This is just the highest value (disregarding weighting) of any of the other results, then weighted by its own value. That comes out to be empathy with 50%, weighted to 7.5%. Passion of survival All actions targeting you that night will be switched to a player of your choice 15% 50/50 odds of the elim trying to kill you, and also 50/50 odds of you redirecting to the other villager anyways, and it not mattering . That means 25% chance of killing the elim, weighted by 15%, comes out to 3.75%. Passion of empathy During one of the two following day cycles you may use this and one vote will be removed from your lynch total 20% If the elim kills the other villager (50%) then you win the following day by lynching the last elim. Weighted by 20%, that's a whopping 10%! Passion of protection Choose one player to protect from all attacks this night cycle, not including yourself 20% 50% chance of the elim killing you. I'm going to say 75% you don't protect the elim, since people have good judgement. Using that number again, 75% that you lynch the right person ensures a score of 28.125%, which becomes 5.625%. Now we'll add that up for a score... 30.625%, or 30625 Pyro Points. POLITICKING: Total Score = 21900 Pyro Points Spoiler Table II (POLITICKING) Passion of passion You can choose which passion from this table (excluding the passion of Research) you would like to use this cycle 15% This is just the highest value (disregarding weighting) of any of the other results, then weighted by its own value. That comes out to be logic, with 50%. Weighted, that's 7.5% Passion of sabotage Can roleblock one player 20% 50% that you block the kill, then, using an earlier number, 75% that the elim is successfully lynched, ends up as 37.5%. Weighted, 7.5%. Passion of logic Your vote counts as two votes the next day cycle 15% If the elim kills the other villager (50%) then you win the following day by lynching the last elim. Weighted, that's 7.5%. That all comes out to 21.9%, or 21900 Pyro Points. That means, of the non-illegal tables, Safety is the best. @Illwei, @Elkanah, @Ashbringer, PICK SAFETY, unless the illegal turns out to be better. I'll do that calculation in a minute. EDIT: Flame On! Also, someone please post so the illegal one won't be a double post. Edited September 15, 2020 by The Young Pyromancer said security, not safety 1
Ashbringer he/him Posted September 15, 2020 Posted September 15, 2020 (edited) *Cough* Edit: Three upvotes for the word *Cough*. Really? Edited September 15, 2020 by Ashbringer 5
The Young Pyromancer he/him Posted September 15, 2020 Posted September 15, 2020 (edited) @Zillah, is narcotics just choosing randomly, or is it rolling a d3 to pick the table, then rolling from that? Also, messed up on survival. Fixing. EDIT: Wait, got it right. Nm. Edited September 15, 2020 by The Young Pyromancer 1
Illwei Posted September 15, 2020 Posted September 15, 2020 (edited) Well, while Pyro is waiting on Zillah, does anyone want to tell me if I'm crazy for being sus of Pyro? because all I remember about trusting him is he popped up out of nowhere basically, asked us what we would do with the Illegal table, then asked for protection? Am I forgetting something? EDIT: looking back, he did say "Gah. I'm much better at scheming than evaluating people.", so Maybe I should just be taking everything he says with a grain of salt. ...as? a grain of salt? a Grian of salt. ...as... I- ... nvm. Edited September 15, 2020 by Illwei
Ashbringer he/him Posted September 15, 2020 Posted September 15, 2020 You know, I was a bit because of how much he cropped up in explaining my own state vs yours compared to Elk. But this post has severely decreased that, mainly because it specifically undermines the Elim's chances of winning if the Village follows it. (Although, that could be the point... ). I'm still thinking Illwei > Pyro > Elkanah > wait what my alter ego was the Elim the whole time is still my line of suspicion. 1
The Young Pyromancer he/him Posted September 15, 2020 Posted September 15, 2020 There's some other stuff too that Elk reads me village for, like how I defended mint at one point + stuff. Also for my earlier bits with the illegal table, and the bit where I was coerced.
Illwei Posted September 15, 2020 Posted September 15, 2020 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Ashbringer said: You know, I was a bit because of how much he cropped up in explaining my own state vs yours compared to Elk. But this post has severely decreased that, mainly because it specifically undermines the Elim's chances of winning if the Village follows it. (Although, that could be the point... ). I'm still thinking Illwei > Pyro > Elkanah > wait what my alter ego was the Elim the whole time is still my line of suspicion. I mean, I don't understand all the "Pyro Points" and "percentages" but I mean, it's along the lines of what I was thinking so I don't think it's a manipulatey-ey thing :P. It could be a clever plan to get us to trust him though... Okay just making sure I'm not crazy. :P. *dies*, *village wins*, "you're telling me that I was the last elim?" 4 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said: There's some other stuff too that Elk reads me village for, like how I defended mint at one point + stuff. Also for my earlier bits with the illegal table, and the bit where I was coerced. I mean, I have already said that I was the one who Coerced Pyro, so if he clears you for being coerced he might as well be voting on me. I mean, uh. Please don't, but, uh... (unless he already is and I'm just blind. wouldn't be the first time.) Edited September 15, 2020 by Illwei 1
The Young Pyromancer he/him Posted September 15, 2020 Posted September 15, 2020 Just now, Illwei said: I mean, I have already said that I was the one who Coerced Pyro, so if he clears you for being coerced he might as well be voting on me. I mean, uh. Please don't, but, uh... (unless he already is and I'm just blind. wouldn't be the first time.) ...Oh, THERE'S why I was suspicious of you. I forgot for a moment. Yes, I am voting on you. The lynch is 2-2. And it's not for being coerced, it's how I handled it. 3 minutes ago, Illwei said: I mean, I don't understand all the "Pyro Points" and "percentages" but I mean, it's along the lines of what I was thinking so I don't think it's a manipulatey-ey thing :P. It could be a clever plan to get us to trust him though... The more points, the more likely the table is to block the elim kill, or else win the game for the village in some other fashion. It doesn't account for a couple of things though, as that would take WAY too long to chart them all out. Re:Illegal table, it's almost certainly worse. It is also really hard to calculate because of Narcotics, and would be even harder if I wasn't ignoring the fact that other players can take actions here, since an extra kill would affect some of the results that you could get, as well as affect results you could only get if you chose narcotics. 1
Illwei Posted September 15, 2020 Posted September 15, 2020 (edited) 1 minute ago, The Young Pyromancer said: ...Oh, THERE'S why I was suspicious of you. I forgot for a moment. Yes, I am voting on you. The lynch is 2-2. Uh, Glad to help? I was talking about Elkanah. Edited September 15, 2020 by Illwei
Ashbringer he/him Posted September 15, 2020 Posted September 15, 2020 @Elkanah hasn't been on in 2 hours...
Illwei Posted September 16, 2020 Posted September 16, 2020 (edited) This was going to be an edit, but then Ash posted: I do want to say though, that as an Elim, Claiming to cause Pyro's coercion would be an obviously terrible move (well, not so say that it didn't turn out to be a terrible move anyways... :P) But honestly, I think as an Elim I would have seen it as a worse move than I did. people seemed content to believe I used survival on Kyne, and Elk turned out to have not even seen me because of a mix up of passions. I could have never claimed it. I guess it might have also helped me kill Elk or Ash, as I might be able to say some things that would only work if they knew that Coercion happened before you came out with it. This is much more fun than thinking about percentages. maybe more useless... Edited September 16, 2020 by Illwei
Ashbringer he/him Posted September 16, 2020 Posted September 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, Illwei said: This was going to be an edit, but then Ash posted: I do want to say though, that as an Elim AHA! ... wait. More seriously, that's what confuses me. I feel like Village!You would have just admitted you did it via narcotics (especially after Elkanah said that he used Teamwork), and Elim!You would have just stayed silent and let Kynedath take the fall for the coercion (especially after Elkanah came and said his Teamwork didn't work properly). ... although, that improperness could have been a bait to see if anyone would confess. It still might. Thanks to you we know it's not him pretending to cover his own action of Coersion, but who knows?
Illwei Posted September 16, 2020 Posted September 16, 2020 (edited) 15 minutes ago, Ashbringer said: More seriously, that's what confuses me. I feel like Village!You would have just admitted you did it via narcotics (especially after Elkanah said that he used Teamwork), and Elim!You would have just stayed silent and let Kynedath take the fall for the coercion (especially after Elkanah came and said his Teamwork didn't work properly). Uh, so you think I'm village? that's...that's what I did.... And I quote: Ash: Quote . unfortunately this only works one way. If Elkanah was an Elim, he would know I'm not, and therefore no I have no real reason to lie. So claiming Teamwork to "verify" me would be fine. Unless... I predicted this exact situation and I actually protected Me: Quote Elk moves down on my suspicion list (er, up? idk. more suspicious) then because there's no way to prove his action right now then, is there. Elk: (er, kinda useless to include?) Quote N4: Narcotics - Teamwork Pyro (I'm pretty sure no one else targeted him. Still just waiting for some clarity there). me: (in response to pyro asking if he should reveal) Quote think you should hold off until at least Elk comes back with his final answer on if ash was the only one at Pyro's house, and seeing as Zillah just got back to Ash, she probably will get/has gotten back to Elk. Me: after Elk came back with expainations Quote I did get Narcotics, Pyro. That Coercion was me. Yeah. Uh. Yeah. I was planning on saying this after Elkanah came back and Told everyone that I was at Pyro's with Ash, because I wanted to see if he did use that action (which is why, Pyro, I asked you to not reveal it yet.) - Which became irrelevant after the whole "Elims can use a passion and a kill" thing was revealed... Then you: Quote ...I don't believe you. This makes no sense: you roll probably the unluckiest Narcotics roll possible besides outright killing someone, you know that Pyro had to have noticed, you lie and say you used Survival instead, and now that we know that the coercion happened now you come forward. And you're plan was only to come forward when Elkanah called you out, knowing Pyro would immediately jump on it? Er, does this post make sense? I came forward after I knew that it was irrelevant if Elk was telling the truth or not. I was hoping he would call me out on being at pyro's, because I had to wait forever to come forward otherwise (er, which is what happened) which is what made people more suspicious of me. EDIT: I'm kinda beginning to doubt my read on ash based on them sounding more honest...or however you say it... Edited September 16, 2020 by Illwei 1
Ashbringer he/him Posted September 16, 2020 Posted September 16, 2020 But why didn't you come forward first? Why did you lie and say you were using Survival on Kynedath when you knew it could only be a matter of time before Elkanah called you out on not doing that? Sure, it turns out that that didn't happen, but why did you lie initially? You behaved consistently with what you said your "plan" was when you revealed yourself, I'll give you that, but it still doesn't make sense. Unless...
Illwei Posted September 16, 2020 Posted September 16, 2020 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Ashbringer said: But why didn't you come forward first? Why did you lie and say you were using Survival on Kynedath when you knew it could only be a matter of time before Elkanah called you out on not doing that? Sure, it turns out that that didn't happen, but why did you lie initially? You behaved consistently with what you said your "plan" was when you revealed yourself, I'll give you that, but it still doesn't make sense. Unless... I wanted to see if Elk was lying? did I not make that clear? If I had come forward he either would have agreed with me because he saw me, agreed with me because he's trying to hide. I wouldn't be able to tell the difference? EDIT: i mean we now know that he probably would have said I was lying, because some things got mixed up. No idea what would have happened then :P. Edited September 16, 2020 by Illwei
The Young Pyromancer he/him Posted September 16, 2020 Posted September 16, 2020 ...did we ever get conformation that that weird action was real?
Illwei Posted September 16, 2020 Posted September 16, 2020 Just now, The Young Pyromancer said: ...did we ever get conformation that that weird action was real? I mean, I just didn't think the GM/IM would be allowed to tell us?
Ashbringer he/him Posted September 16, 2020 Posted September 16, 2020 (edited) Hmm. 9 minutes ago, Illwei said: I wanted to see if Elk was lying? did I not make that clear? If I had come forward he either would have agreed with me because he saw me, agreed with me because he's trying to hide. I wouldn't be able to tell the difference? I... I just don't see it. If Elk had come forward and said you visited Pyro, I'm pretty sure we would have all lynched you, narcotics or not. And he wasn't about to come out and say that there were no visitors if he was lying, because Pyro had said that "something happened", which would require a visit. Maaaybe Elim!Elk saw it as a good opprotunity to prove himself, but I don't think it is. Too many variables, especially when it was the 2nd post of the day. Any number of people could have visited Pyro for multiple reasons. Edit: @Elkanah, I know you're active now. Say something. Edited September 16, 2020 by Ashbringer
Illwei Posted September 16, 2020 Posted September 16, 2020 (edited) 1 minute ago, Ashbringer said: I... I just don't see it. If Elk had come forward and said you visited Pyro, I'm pretty sure we would have all lynched you You know...I...I never really thought about that... ...that's a very good point... EDIT: I mean, I don't think that Elk is an elim rn. I think it's either you or Pyro. Edited September 16, 2020 by Illwei 2
Elkanah he/him Posted September 16, 2020 Posted September 16, 2020 1 hour ago, Illwei said: Well, while Pyro is waiting on Zillah, does anyone want to tell me if I'm crazy for being sus of Pyro? because all I remember about trusting him is he popped up out of nowhere basically, asked us what we would do with the Illegal table, then asked for protection? Am I forgetting something? EDIT: looking back, he did say "Gah. I'm much better at scheming than evaluating people.", so Maybe I should just be taking everything he says with a grain of salt. ...as? a grain of salt? a Grian of salt. ...as... I- ... nvm. My very best indicator that Pyro is not the last elim is that he had no reason to dispute our lynch of Ashbringer. He could have just said "yeah I agree that Ashbringer is bad" and voted and the game would have been over. He has a lot more urgency and has put in much more effort than an elim would have to. 42 minutes ago, Ashbringer said: @Elkanah hasn't been on in 2 hours... Sorry, I had an old friend stop by. 3 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said: ...did we ever get conformation that that weird action was real? Nope and that's really fine with me. My next unread topic says "round three: heating up" and That really fits right here 1
The Young Pyromancer he/him Posted September 16, 2020 Posted September 16, 2020 Just now, Elkanah said: My very best indicator that Pyro is not the last elim is that he had no reason to dispute our lynch of Ashbringer. He could have just said "yeah I agree that Ashbringer is bad" and voted and the game would have been over. He has a lot more urgency and has put in much more effort than an elim would have to. You can apply a similar logic to my defense of Silber. Though, tbh, I have known to strongly defend villagers as an elim, it's usually because I've been collaborating with them in pms.
Illwei Posted September 16, 2020 Posted September 16, 2020 (edited) 6 minutes ago, Ashbringer said: Maaaybe Elim!Elk saw it as a good opprotunity to prove himself, but I don't think it is. Too many variables, especially when it was the 2nd post of the day. Any number of people could have visited Pyro for multiple reasons. Right, which is why I assumed he said "unless someone else wants to claim to have protected him?" because that would give him an opening to say that he also saw someone else or to refuse someone else who tried to claim (er, less likely) Edited September 16, 2020 by Illwei
Elkanah he/him Posted September 16, 2020 Posted September 16, 2020 1 minute ago, The Young Pyromancer said: You can apply a similar logic to my defense of Silber. Though, tbh, I have known to strongly defend villagers as an elim, it's usually because I've been collaborating with them in pms. Ok, but would you do that now? on the brink of victory? I might just leave it as a tie. The gods of luck and chance have blessed me abundantly this game with gifts of narcotics and coercion. Maybe I just leave it in their hands.
Illwei Posted September 16, 2020 Posted September 16, 2020 I don't understand Ash's arguments against me but he's seeming more honest and honestly I'm wanting to switch to Pyro. though that's kind of useless, as All that it will accomplish is a 100% chance of me dying :P. I mean, If I live then either I'm going to vote pyro (or if it's a 1v1, whoever the other person is, I guess it could be Elk) and If I die then...I mean It kind of doesn't matter what I think because either Pyro or Ash will die...I guess Ash was saying Pyro's next on his suspicions, but Elk thinks Pyro is clear, so, there's really no point in me thinking about it unless I live through the day...
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