Renaissance not Industrialization: the Immediate Technological Future of Roshar

[agrabes]

Coming back to the original topic a little bit - something else to consider in Roshar's technological future are the impacts of the desolation itself.  It seems like most historians would say the end of feudalism in Europe was caused by the black death plague and the resulting increased negotiating power of the peasants/serfs.  Since there were fewer people, each peasant's labor was more valuable and it was difficult to find either "scab" peasants to come fill in for the ones that didn't toe the line or field armies to put down peasant rebellions.

So - all that is to say that I think the result of the desolation will be a greatly reduced number of people in the peasant class on Roshar, a greater need for labor saving devices like fabrials, etc.  I think what you'll see coming out of the desolation is a large amount of change happening in a relatively fast time.  For hundreds of years, not much has changed in Rosharan society, but in 50-100 years things may be totally transformed.  If it follows real world history it's probably still too "slow" to be seen in the time scale of the SA series though.

I expect you'll see a "bourgeoisie" type class arise to the extent that maybe the top 20-25% of society now has some wealth and power where before it was more like 5% and the bottom 75% have more freedoms and at least an improved chance for upward mobility.  The Rosharan economy and wealth already seem to be mostly separate from land ownership, so you may not see as much of a power and wealth shift from the aristocracy to the wealthy "commoners" like you did in the real world as industrialization took hold and made factories more valuable than farmland.  

[Karger]

1 hour ago, agrabes said:

Coming back to the original topic a little bit - something else to consider in Roshar's technological future are the impacts of the desolation itself.  It seems like most historians would say the end of feudalism in Europe was caused by the black death plague and the resulting increased negotiating power of the peasants/serfs.  Since there were fewer people, each peasant's labor was more valuable and it was difficult to find either "scab" peasants to come fill in for the ones that didn't toe the line or field armies to put down peasant rebellions.

So I tried not to consider that in my calculations because gods are involved and literally anything could happen.  However while that is one example where a large die off benefited mankind there are plenty where it did not.  If the fused decide to burn libraries or successfully manage to destroy Urithiru while most of the politicians and scholars of roshar are in attendance and burn the palanium to the ground then Roshar could actually regress technologically.  Also with the loss of parshmen and the new weather patterns wide scale famine is a possibility which might shrink urbane centers and other places of learning.

1 hour ago, agrabes said:

50-100 years things may be totally transformed.  If it follows real world history it's probably still too "slow" to be seen in the time scale of the SA series though.

Agreed.

1 hour ago, agrabes said:

The Rosharan economy and wealth already seem to be mostly separate from land ownership,

Are they?

[+Oltux72]

10 hours ago, agrabes said:

So - all that is to say that I think the result of the desolation will be a greatly reduced number of people in the peasant class on Roshar, a greater need for labor saving devices like fabrials, etc.

I am afraid I have to disagree. The Parshendi were holding the country side first. The cities suffered more fighting. Secondly the human side will try to keep Soulcasters out of Parsh hands. That means that the cities will suffer more in terms of supplies. Thirdly, commerce is collapsing. That hurts merchants and artisans more than peasants.

Lighteyes are likelier to fill more martial and leadership roles. The Singers will go for officers on the field. The urban elite is going to suffer more.

[agrabes]

12 hours ago, Karger said:

So I tried not to consider that in my calculations because gods are involved and literally anything could happen.  However while that is one example where a large die off benefited mankind there are plenty where it did not.  If the fused decide to burn libraries or successfully manage to destroy Urithiru while most of the politicians and scholars of roshar are in attendance and burn the palanium to the ground then Roshar could actually regress technologically.  Also with the loss of parshmen and the new weather patterns wide scale famine is a possibility which might shrink urbane centers and other places of learning.

Agreed.

Are they?

That's a fair point that we do have to consider the possibilities that things could play out differently since we do have Cultivation and Odium in the picture.  It seems like the fused may not necessarily specifically target libraries, but I'm sure they will still destroy several.  It is really hard to say what might happen though.  Another good (I think) implied point you have is that population distribution is much different than real world due to the high storms.  In the equivalent type of society in earth, the vast majority of the population lived in rural areas working in agriculture.  Due to the high storms on Roshar, it seems you don't have people living scattered across the countryside they have to gather up in the fortified cities and towns for protection.

It seems like the wealth and power of the nobility is not based on agriculture because it doesn't seem that they value it all that highly or that there is as much of a concept of land ownership.  It might be that we just don't see that (or I've forgotten reading about it) in the books and it really is there, but I haven't had the impression of the nobles fighting over land.  It seems like there have been raids where people steal or destroy livestock or grain, but no battles to actually change the locations of the borders.  I think this is because of the way agriculture works on Roshar.  It seems like they can't just plant large fields due to the risks of the high storms.  Everyone has to live in the same place for protection, and there's a limit to how far away they can go to actually work the fields.  It also seems like Roshar has a relatively low population density due to the harsh conditions.  So, the impression I got was that most land is not worked for agriculture and there's not any mention of the most powerful nobles having the greatest lands.  The power of the nobility seems to be more tied to military power and reputation, at least for Alethkar.  We don't know enough about the other countries to really say.  They might be different.

3 hours ago, Oltux72 said:

I am afraid I have to disagree. The Parshendi were holding the country side first. The cities suffered more fighting. Secondly the human side will try to keep Soulcasters out of Parsh hands. That means that the cities will suffer more in terms of supplies. Thirdly, commerce is collapsing. That hurts merchants and artisans more than peasants.

Lighteyes are likelier to fill more martial and leadership roles. The Singers will go for officers on the field. The urban elite is going to suffer more.

I think you're right about everything you're saying, but I'm not sure that your conclusion is right.  I think it's something more like World War 1 - the high class families were devastated because their sons were dying at a much higher rate in the war than any previous war.  It did take a real toll on the young officers, hitting the higher class families hard.  I don't know any numbers, but it it's probably true that a higher percentage of high class families lost family members in the war relative to the lower class families.  However, in terms of sheer numbers the lower class soldiers still made up the vast majority of deaths.  Each noble or higher class citizen has to do more supervisory work than before, but in most societies it's not like they were working long hours anyway.  They can pick up the slack.  The lower classes already worked long hours just to survive and have now lost a significant portion of their workforce.  To keep up the same production levels, they will need better tools like fabrials.

Real history has shown us devastating wars and plagues often lead to more power in the hands of the common people.  The only historical example I can think of where the opposite happened was the end of the Roman Empire when feudalism was basically formed.  The main reason that happened was because the common people were constantly under attack from raiders and other civilizations looking to steal the wealth of the crumbling Roman Empire, so they paid for protection in the only way they could - by essentially making themselves property of the few ultra rich people who could afford to protect them.  The reason that happened is because they needed constant protection and the central government could no longer provide it for them.  I don't think we'll see that post desolation because people generally won't need constant protection after the desolation is over.  They will also have the order of the knights radiant to help provide protection, assuming it's not destroyed.

[Karger]

2 hours ago, agrabes said:

It seems like the wealth and power of the nobility is not based on agriculture because it doesn't seem that they value it all that highly or that there is as much of a concept of land ownership

Any land ownership qualifies you automatically for the fifth dahn so I would say it definitely matters.

2 hours ago, agrabes said:

It might be that we just don't see that (or I've forgotten reading about it) in the books and it really is there, but I haven't had the impression of the nobles fighting over land. 

Kaladin mentions being involved in meaningless land disputes and Dalinar fought in border wars.

[+Oltux72]

2 hours ago, agrabes said:

Real history has shown us devastating wars and plagues often lead to more power in the hands of the common people.  The only historical example I can think of where the opposite happened was the end of the Roman Empire when feudalism was basically formed.  The main reason that happened was because the common people were constantly under attack from raiders and other civilizations looking to steal the wealth of the crumbling Roman Empire, so they paid for protection in the only way they could - by essentially making themselves property of the few ultra rich people who could afford to protect them.

That conflates two things that are not necessarily related. Yes, you may end up with free people. But they will be poor and ignorant.
We are talking not just about a war here, but about a total collapse, like the end of the Bronze Age or the Fall of Rome.

[agrabes]

1 hour ago, Karger said:

Any land ownership qualifies you automatically for the fifth dahn so I would say it definitely matters.

Kaladin mentions being involved in meaningless land disputes and Dalinar fought in border wars.

Right, those things exist for sure.  But, the land does not seem to be the source of power or money, it seems to be a way to display power.  At least, that's the tone I've picked up from the books.  For example, land ownership qualifying for a certain dahn is fine, but you could reach that qualification in other ways too.  It's just like having a shard blade also automatically qualifies you for a certain rank as well, but it's not the primary way of getting that rank.  The primary way of getting rank seems to be military success and conquest or family ties/inheritance.

The land disputes and border wars, because they're always called meaningless, always gave me the feeling of people fighting just to fight rather than truly feeling that land was really valuable.  It's also the general attitude of the warlike Alethi - they like to find any excuse to fight.  You don't see any of the nobility talking about their wealth coming from owning fields and livestock or other rural economies.  They talk about mines, factories, or conquest in battle/hunting chasm fiends.  I also think the fact that Sebarial is the only high prince who is even thinking about building up an economy and business as a priority and how he is mocked for it shows you how the nobility of (at least) Alethkar value land and commerce.  This is all just my interpretation though - I'm not sure it's fleshed out well enough in the books to really say one way or another.

1 hour ago, Oltux72 said:

That conflates two things that are not necessarily related. Yes, you may end up with free people. But they will be poor and ignorant.
We are talking not just about a war here, but about a total collapse, like the end of the Bronze Age or the Fall of Rome.

Well, I would argue we don't know that this is a total collapse like the end of the Bronze Age or the Fall of Rome.  It could be more similar to the World Wars or the Napoleonic Wars, large scale wars that devastated large parts of the world and completely transformed society but did not collapse all major governments.  That's the key distinction in my opinion.  If there's still a strong enough central authority and power structure in place after the desolation, then you will not see a breakdown like those other events.  I personally predict there will be, but that's just a prediction.

I think if you look at the results of the other desolations, things got so bad by the end because they were repeated.  I would imagine that after the first desolation ended, it was more similar to a WW1 or Black Death situation - major changes but if you squint you can still recognize what was there before.  There was a strong enough government in place before the desolation that something was left afterward and there was enough time to recover that people could rebuild to some extent and adjust to a new order.  Once desolations started coming more than once in a hundred years is when I think society started to totally collapse.  

[Karger]

8 minutes ago, agrabes said:

but you could reach that qualification in other ways too

How?

9 minutes ago, agrabes said:

The land disputes and border wars, because they're always called meaningless, always gave me the feeling of people fighting just to fight rather than truly feeling that land was really valuable

That was Kaladin's perspective.  However Dalinar sees it as important politically as does Gavilar.

10 minutes ago, agrabes said:

You don't see any of the nobility talking about their wealth coming from owning fields and livestock or other rural economies

Sadeas specifically finds the lands in the same region as Hearthstone important for that reason.  They are good agriculturally. 

[agrabes]

1 hour ago, Karger said:

How?

That was Kaladin's perspective.  However Dalinar sees it as important politically as does Gavilar.

Sadeas specifically finds the lands in the same region as Hearthstone important for that reason.  They are good agriculturally. 

I don't think the ways people can advance are ever spelled out in the books.  But that a few things like getting a shardblade or owning land make you "automatically" of a certain rank strongly implies that there is another way that you would get that kind of rank more normally.  My guess is promotion by higher nobles based on your accomplishments and influence at court.  Or, military conquest - wield enough military power and you can demand you are elevated.

That is true that Kaladin is the main one who sees the skirmishes he's involved in as worthless.  I don't remember Dalinar seeing those types of battles (skirmishes between Alethi lords) as politically important.  Border wars, I do remember Dalinar defining as politically important but it seemed more based on things like military advantage and honor/reputation than wealth.

I don't remember that part about Sadeas, but don't really doubt it's there.  Sadeas is shown as one of the most intelligent and strategic Alethi lords though, so even if he does recognize it that doesn't necessarily mean they all do.  I think you have shown that there are at least some nobles who find at least some value in land and agriculture.  I still think it's not valued in the same way it was in real history because of the differences in the real world vs. Roshar, but it's hard to really say for sure.

[Karger]

23 minutes ago, agrabes said:

Or, military conquest - wield enough military power and you can demand you are elevated.

 

Quote

Brandon Sanderson

There's a lot of parts to this. Rising within nahns and dahns happens more easily in Roshar than rising in social status did in most societies that had similar things in our world—for instance India, or even England. To an extent, it is very easy to buy yourself up a rank. What you've got to remember is the very high ranks are harder to attain. By nature, the children of someone of a very high rank sometimes are shuffled down to a lower rank—until they hit a stable rank. There are certain ranks that are stable in that the children born to parents of that rank always have that rank at as well. Your example of the soldier who serves with distinction could very easily be granted a rank up. In fact, it would be very rare for a soldier to not get a level of promotion if they were a very low rank—to not be ranked up immediately. The social structure pushes people toward these stable ranks. For the serf level, if you're able to escape your life of serfdom and go to a city, often getting a job and that sort of thing does require some measure of paperwork listing where you're from and the like. But if you were a serf who was educated, that would be pretty easy to fake. What's keeping most people as serfs is the fact that breaking out of it is hard, and there are much fewer of those ranks than you might assume. The right of travel is kind of an assumed thing. To be lower ranked than that, something has to have gone wrong for your ancestors and that sort of thing. There are many fewer people of that rank than there are of the slightly higher ranks that have the right of travel. It's a natural check and balance against the nobility built into the system. There are a lot of things going on here. Movement between ranks is not as hard as you might expect.

Isilel

Ditto with the lighteyes—does exemplary service raise one's dahn?

Brandon Sanderson

It's much harder for a lighteyes, but the king and the highprinces can raise someone's dahn if they want to. But it is much harder. In the lower dahns, you can buy yourself up in rank. Or you can be appointed. For instance, if you're appointed as a citylord, that is going to convey a certain dahn, and you could jump two or three dahns just by getting that appointment. Now, if you serve poorly, if a lot of the people who have the right of travel leave—which this doesn't happen very often—if your town gets smaller and you're left with this struggling city, you would be demoted a dahn, most likely. If a lot of the citizens got up and left, that would be a sign. They could take away your set status by leaving. That’s something that’s built into the right of travel. So these things happen.

Isilel

If parents have different nahns/dahn's, how is child’s position calculated? For instance, if Shallan had married 10-dahner Kabsal, what dahn would their children belong to?

Brandon Sanderson

The highest dahn determines the dahn of the child, though that may not match the dahn of the highest parent. For instance, there are certain dahns that aren't conveyed to anyone except for your direct heir. The other children are a rank below. I believe that third dahn is one of the stable ranks. If you're the king, you're first dahn. Your kid inherits. If you have another kid who doesn't marry a highprince, and is not a highprince, then they're going to be third dahn, not second, because that's the stable rank that they would slip down to, along with highlords and the children of highprinces.

Isilel

Or, and another thing—what happens if a lighteyed child is born to darkeyes or even slaves? Which should happen often enough, given that male nobles seem rather promiscuous. Anyway, are such people automatically of tenth dahn?

Brandon Sanderson

The situation is very much taken into account in these sorts of cases. Normally—if there is such a thing as normal with this—one question that's going to come up is are they heterochromatic. Because you can end up with one eye of each color, both eyes light, or both eyes dark. That's going to influence it a lot, what happens here. Do you have any heirs? Was your child born lighteyed? This sort of thing is treated the same way that a lot of societies treated illegitimate children. The question of, do I need this person as an heir? Are they born darkeyed? Can I shuffle them off somewhere? Set them up, declare them to be this certain rank. Are you high enough rank to do that? Are you tenth dahn yourself? What happens with all of these things? There's no single answer to that. The most common thing that's probably going to happen is that they are born heterochromatic. Then you're in this weird place where you're probably declared to be tenth dahn, but you may have way more power and authority than that if one parent is of a very high dahn, just as a bastard child in a royal line would be treated in our world.

Tor.com The Way of Kings Re-Read Interview (June 10, 2014)

 

[agrabes]

2 hours ago, Karger said:

 

 

Thanks - good WoB.  It generally lines up with what I thought - normally people are promoted/demoted based on service and capabilities most of the time.  Some lower ranks can be bought too - which I didn't mention but I don't really see as a contradiction since it seems these lower ranks are below the level of landowners.  Rank is not directly tied to land ownership (owning more land doesn't make you higher rank).  It almost seems like it's the other way around - you get promoted and as a duty you are given land to take care of.  The military conquest side of things isn't confirmed, but could easily fall under the King and High Princes ability to directly raise someone if they so choose.  Of course, the other example is following Gavilar and Dalinar's path - if you conquer everyone you can raise yourself to become a king or high prince.