Long Game 52: Treachery in the South

[Snipexe he/him]

Ok, so Gold is gone who knows where. I'll go ahead and repeat what I said last cycle, I had nothing last cycle.

No real thoughts right now, but I'll go ahead and throw a poke vote on @I think I am here. Hi ITIAH

Edited February 26, 2019 by Snipexe

[FatherTiempo he/him]

How do southern scadrians kill? Do they vote?

[Furamirionind They/Any/All]

45 minutes ago, FatherTiempo said:

How do southern scadrians kill? Do they vote?

Typically how it is done is they agree on who to kill, and then one of them send in an action in the GM PM. Why do you ask?

Last cycle I had 2 iron, 1 Electrum, 1 Alluminum, and 1 Bendalloy... I think that was everything... lol.

Does someone have a chart of who claimed what medallions which cycle? (Or at least C1) I havent had time to make one.

Edit;

Also, why Rath? This deserves more thought... he was going after Devotary, but I think that was the only post he made?

Everyone is decently suspicious of Devotary, so elims likely wouldn't kill village!Dev, but then why not kill Steel? When Steel has time, he is dangerous... Granted, perhaps it could be assumed that with school plus running a game, he wont have time to be productive here. In that case, the elims might leave village!Steel alive.

I dont know much about Eturnum, Roadwalker or Droughtbringer.  However that list plus Rath makes a lot of sense to kill one of them.

After this, I suppose Rath's death isnt so strange, but it is still interesting I think.

Edited February 26, 2019 by Furamirionind
Added stuff about Raths death

[Elandera she/her]

2 hours ago, Ark1002 said:

I actually forgot to do it...

I've got chromium, and aluminum. I don't know who to use the chromium on, any thoughts?

In general, everyone needs to be careful about what medallions they claim while they still possess them. Aluminum isn't so bad, as it seems elims wanted several of those out there. If you have a medallion that elims might consider a threat, it'd be best to keep it quiet.

 

45 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

Typically how it is done is they agree on who to kill, and then one of them send in an action in the GM PM. Why do you ask?

Last cycle I had 2 iron, 1 Electrum, 1 Alluminum, and 1 Bendalloy... I think that was everything... lol.

Does someone have a chart of who claimed what medallions which cycle? (Or at least C1) I havent had time to make one.

Edit;

Also, why Rath? This deserves more thought... he was going after Devotary, but I think that was the only post he made?

Everyone is decently suspicious of Devotary, so elims likely wouldn't kill village!Dev, but then why not kill Steel? When Steel has time, he is dangerous... Granted, perhaps it could be assumed that with school plus running a game, he wont have time to be productive here. In that case, the elims might leave village!Steel alive.

I dont know much about Eturnum, Roadwalker or Droughtbringer.  However that list plus Rath makes a lot of sense to kill one of them.

After this, I suppose Rath's death isnt so strange, but it is still interesting I think.

Wow. That's a lot of medallions. It seems RNG liked you. 

I've got a chart in progress, though I may have missed some D1 claims. I believe I shared what I had (number-wise) in a post near the end of D2. It needs to be updated though.

As for Rath's death, my immediate thought was an information-deprivation kill. Since Rath had been less active than others, not a lot of information could be gleaned from it. My guess if they wanted to make Devotary more suspicious, you'd be their initial target, since you've expressed some of the most doubt about her.

[Sparkrunner he/him]

@Snipexe, I think you failed to actually vote: might want to edit that in  

[Snipexe he/him]

18 minutes ago, Roadwalker said:

@Snipexe, I think you failed to actually vote: might want to edit that in  

Lol, I’ll get on that.

[Furamirionind They/Any/All]

2 hours ago, Elandera said:

As for Rath's death, my immediate thought was an information-deprivation kill. Since Rath had been less active than others, not a lot of information could be gleaned from it. My guess if they wanted to make Devotary more suspicious, you'd be their initial target, since you've expressed some of the most doubt about her

Perhaps, but I have also had some of the most doubt cast upon me this game.  I also don't have a history of particularly great analysis. I would have expected me not to die last night as there was still a chance I would be lynched today, which seems to not have a lot of momentum at this point.

Edited February 26, 2019 by Furamirionind

[FatherTiempo he/him]

3 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

Typically how it is done is they agree on who to kill, and then one of them send in an action in the GM PM. Why do you ask?

Okay so here was my thought. If the Southerners had to be present to kill someone then we could look at every ones online history in their profile pages, to see if they were online at the night. This might knock a few off our list. Now I'm not sure if it still would. 

Now our chances of getting a southerner are pretty good now. I will place temporary vote at (color = red)Droughtbringer(color=red). Defend yourself!

[Furamirionind They/Any/All]

21 minutes ago, FatherTiempo said:

I will place temporary vote at (color = red)Droughtbringer(color=red). Defend yourself!

Use brackets instead of parenthesis. [color"=red]Droughtbringer[/"color]
Use that without the quotes.

[Elandera she/her]

27 minutes ago, FatherTiempo said:

Okay so here was my thought. If the Southerners had to be present to kill someone then we could look at every ones online history in their profile pages, to see if they were online at the night. This might knock a few off our list. Now I'm not sure if it still would. 

While that is possible, it's not a definite way to do it. Elims can submit the kill at any point during the night turn. Sometimes they'll have decided who they want to kill before the night turn even begins. 

[I think I am here. he/him]

6 hours ago, Snipexe said:

Ok, so Gold is gone who knows where. I'll go ahead and repeat what I said last cycle, I had nothing last cycle.

No real thoughts right now, but I'll go ahead and throw a poke vote on @I think I am here. Hi ITIAH

Hello! So, I am a bit lost. I’m sorry, I’ve just been posting some small analyses now and then and then dipping out  I don’t think I was present the Night before or day before that (was that the one where we lynched Lum?), so I’m a bit stuck for suspicions.

It seems Devotary’s getting some suspicion, is that because Rath died after he accused her or is there another reason? 

[xinoehp512 he/him]

Ladem hissed silently to himself as he watched the proceedings. More people were dying.

He had been so sure that Marwyn had been a spy. He had heard her lies.

But she was innocent. So the blame lay elsewhere.

He looked around at his fellow travelers. Which of them would be the next killed?

And which of them were the killers?

[Elandera she/her]

Well, we're less than 12 hours away from the end of the cycle, and there's been little to no lynch discussion. The only vote so far was a poke vote from Snipexe onto Itiah.

I'm at a loss for a possible lynch candidate. I'm seeing Fura as less and less possible elim, especially after Lum's flip as village. I think I'm going to vote in honor of CadCom, using his analysis from after he was lynched. He seemed most suspicious of Devotary.

[Sparkrunner he/him]

Interesting vote, @Elandera.
 

Quote

Elandera seems like an honest vote. It doesn't seem like a very Elim move to try to start up a whole new lynch near the end of the cycle on someone new. Unless of course, none of the elim team was up for lynch and they wanted to stir a bit of chaos, (from CadCom)

Emphasis added. That could flip two ways. Also interesting that no one has tagged @Snipexe, to ask him to remove his vote. Gonna keep that there till the end of the cycle?

So either elim!Elandera is trying to save elim!Itiah, or elim!Elandera is trying to cause chaos. Or is innocent, but this at least warrants some discussion.

[Snipexe he/him]

Crap sorry, Itiah I forgot to remove my vote.

[Elandera she/her]

34 minutes ago, Roadwalker said:

Interesting vote, @Elandera.
 

Emphasis added. That could flip two ways. Also interesting that no one has tagged @Snipexe, to ask him to remove his vote. Gonna keep that there till the end of the cycle?

So either elim!Elandera is trying to save elim!Itiah, or elim!Elandera is trying to cause chaos. Or is innocent, but this at least warrants some discussion.

If I was elim!Elandera protecting elim!Itiah, I probably would have tagged Snip as a way to get the vote removed. The vote on Devotary was simply an effort to get some discussion going, and hopefully get someone else to speak up with some analysis. Unfortunately, I'm at work, so my ability to do real analysis is limited. I just know there have been several people, CadCom included, who've expressed some concern about Devotary. CadCom asked us to not ignore his analysis, so this is my, trying to not ignore it. It's the best lead I have at the moment, since me previous leads have all ended with a villager lynch.

[Droughtbringer]

18 hours ago, FatherTiempo said:

(color = red)Droughtbringer(color=red). Defend yourself!

What am I defending myself from? (Also, I almost missed this, only picked up on it reading through Fura's post, try to tag people when you vote on them so it is easy for them to see the vote)

You did not make any accusations, or reasons why I should defend myself, so this is just a poke vote, right?

19 hours ago, FatherTiempo said:

Okay so here was my thought. If the Southerners had to be present to kill someone then we could look at every ones online history in their profile pages, to see if they were online at the night. This might knock a few off our list. Now I'm not sure if it still would. 

This tends to not go the best, you need to being tons of attention to people's Profile Pages, and it rarely will narrow your search down enough to be worth it.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

20 hours ago, I think I am here. said:

It seems Devotary’s getting some suspicion, is that because Rath died after he accused her or is there another reason? 

From what I can tell, the main reason is that I was the deciding vote on CadCom after vacillating the entire cycle and not being publicly suspicious of anyone. I cast this vote because I figured that any decisive vote manipulation would be more likely to be in the hands of the elims, as insurance against a D1 lynch or to cause some chaos if the lynch was between all village candidates. I voted for CadCom over Fura because I felt Fura's updated claiming plan was more indicative of being a villager, and lingering suspicion over CadCom assuming that the Southern Scadrians could choose who got which medallions.

On 2/26/2019 at 11:58 AM, Ark1002 said:

I actually forgot to do it...

That is indeed unfortunate, and another reason I didn't claim last night. Since I had duralumin and copper in addition to my tin medallion last cycle, I was able to scan pewter as well as gold, largely to test Fura's belief that the elims didn't send out any Pewter. Since we don't have a gold scan, I will say that there are at least three pewter medallions in play, possibly more if someone has multiple pewter medallions. 

[Furamirionind They/Any/All]

It is really difficult to truly keep track of what info about medallions are useful at this point in the game.  I think it will be easier to gain info once we have a successful gold scan.

I was suspicious of Dev earlier, but I am getting generally a village impression lately.  I have heard that Devotary sounds the same as both village and elim, but am not ready to gamble on that just yet.

Elandera has probably been providing the most analysis, and seems to be trying to drive the lynches. Unfortunately though, as there has typically been no lynch discussion until Elandera starts contributing, this is probably NAI as either a villager or elim would want to drive a lynch if one hasnt been started late in the cycle.

Eternum was a high suspicion of several people, but seems to have dropped off the grid. @Eternum, you around? (I probably would vote on him, but it seems a little late for a poke vote)

If I had to pick 1 person to lynch, it would probably be Tiempo.  They have just felt a bit weird to me all game, and they dont seem to be supporting lynches based on fact.  However, I think this is their first or second (?) game... so it could also be attributed to that.

Not many people have actually done player analysis this game. I have done psudo-player-analysis a couple times, Elandera has, and I think Devotary has... but that is it.  For now, I think I am going to stick my vote on @I think I am here., purely because the lynch is still up in the air, and I think he will be on before rollover to hopefully do some analysis.

My vote may shift to Snipexe or Drought if Itiah posts some analysis, and one of them doesnt.

I would also like to hear from @ElendVenture, @shanerockes. Any thoughts about the game? Any questions? Elend, you said you were confused, but we havent heard from you since. Are you still confused? If so, please ask questions so we can help.

ITIAH

Edited February 27, 2019 by Furamirionind
I always forget to add a vote...

[FatherTiempo he/him]

3 hours ago, Droughtbringer said:

What am I defending myself from? 

I dont know. I thought If you were a southerner you would make some tatical error in your defense, and that would do stuff and yeah. no. 

Yeah it was just a poke vote. 

[Elandera she/her]

1 hour ago, Furamirionind said:

If I had to pick 1 person to lynch, it would probably be Tiempo.  They have just felt a bit weird to me all game, and they dont seem to be supporting lynches based on fact.  However, I think this is their first or second (?) game... so it could also be attributed to that.

I am also getting a bit of a strange vibe, but it seems to be mostly inexperience. They've asked a lot of questions that, had they been elims, would have been better asked in a doc (how elims decide a target, for example). For now, I'm putting Tiempo in a Mostly Village category.

1 hour ago, Furamirionind said:

I was suspicious of Dev earlier, but I am getting generally a village impression lately.  I have heard that Devotary sounds the same as both village and elim, but am not ready to gamble on that just yet.

Devotary is very good at sounding the same as both elim and village. Her voting patterns tend to be what tip me off first, usually including very last-minute votes with few poke votes early on. However, I haven't seen much of that outside of CadCom's vote. 

I'm still not sure about lynching Devotary, and would love if someone else piped up with some analysis. I feel lost at this point.

[Kidpen he/him]

Important Announcement: Mailliw has stepped in as a pinch hitter for Eternum.

[Mailliw73 he/him]

Hello all! I am playing in place of Eternum. I haven’t been paying a ton of attention to the thread, but it seems we’ve got 4 northerners dead. Anyone mind summarizing the situations of the past lynches and the current one? Also what the current policy is on revealing medallions?

[Sparkrunner he/him]

1 minute ago, Mailliw73 said:

Hello all! I am playing in place of Eternum. I haven’t been paying a ton of attention to the thread, but it seems we’ve got 4 northerners dead. Anyone mind summarizing the situations of the past lynches and the current one? Also what the current policy is on revealing medallions?

On medallions, we don't reveal what we have this current cycle in case the elims try to kill us for medallions, to try to destroy powerful medallions. We can reveal what we had in previous cycles though. The lynch this turn around seems like mostly poke votes.

[Mailliw73 he/him]

The southern kill destroys medallions?