Steeldancer he/him Posted March 3, 2019 Posted March 3, 2019 Freaking heck, I never did get around to doing that analysis did I? And now I have to go set up a game, study for a midterm for tomorrow, and get a bunch of other things done... I'm sorry guys. I'll see if I can get something in later tonight once I finish all the stuff I have to get done this afternoon.
Devotary of Spontaneity Posted March 3, 2019 Posted March 3, 2019 13 hours ago, Elandera said: EDIT: I didn't want to double post, and it's been less than 30 minutes. I had the thought, what if the gold scan is right, but a second brass just happened to go to the same person by happenstance. That wouldn't show in the gold scan, since that only shows how many were passed. I don't think that can be the case, because if there were two brass, both of them would have passed to shane. Since shane died with only one brass, we know that isn't true. This is another reason bendalloy is good for the village apparently, as we could have resolved this by asking shane if he soothed me. I'm almost entirely sure he didn't because he specifically said he wasn't going to use his brass medallion. @Roadwalker, as nobody has specifically tagged you for this, what is your explanation for why your gold scan suggests that the only brass medallion was destroyed with shane? If no explanation is forthcoming, it will likely be worthwhile for any current brass holders to claim. I do not have a brass medallion.
Elandera she/her Posted March 3, 2019 Posted March 3, 2019 24 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said: I don't think that can be the case, because if there were two brass, both of them would have passed to shane. Since shane died with only one brass, we know that isn't true. Sorry, what I mean is this: Say there were two Brass medallions. N2 to D3 rollover, Shane got one. That was counted in the gold scan. But the second medallion was with Person A on N2, and RNG assigned it back to Person A for D3. That means the brass medallion never actually passed to a different player. So the gold scan, which reveals which medallions were passed would not have included the second brass. It's not entirely impossible, since we know of several people who've gotten at least the same kind of medallion two turns in a row. It's part of why I'd like a tin scan today on brass, just to see if there's any out there, or I'm just going a bit crazy with theories. Also, my reason for suspecting Roadwalker isn't inherently tied to the results of the gold scan, but my suspicion of him makes me question the scan results.
Droughtbringer Posted March 3, 2019 Posted March 3, 2019 4 hours ago, Mailliw73 said: @Droughtbringer How come you haven’t shared any of your medallions? It can’t hurt to share the first few cycles’ now. I don’t see what the point is in not sharing. Just never ended up getting around to it. Give me just a moment to dig through the thousand PMs that Steel just created to find the one that actually matters for this game, and I'll give a brief rundown. 1 - Duraluminium, and Bendalloy 2 - Zinc, and Bronze 3 - Bendalloy, and Cadmium 14 hours ago, Elandera said: The first thing that stands out is Drought has yet to claim any medallions. While that's not inherently elim, it is a bit odd they're the only ones to not claim. Sorry I never claimed. 14 hours ago, Elandera said: As you can see, not everyone is tagged. These were just posts by people that stood out to me the most. Hence, the reason for my top suspicions at the moment are: Roadwalker Droughtbringer Mailliw/Eternum Xinoehp Ark Is there a reason that I am suspicious, besides having not listed my Medallions thus far? I highly doubt that me now listing them will in any way clear them, as it was a response from prompting, but is there another reason?
Steeldancer he/him Posted March 3, 2019 Posted March 3, 2019 3 minutes ago, Droughtbringer said: Give me just a moment to dig through the thousand PMs that Steel just created to find the one that actually matters for this game, and I'll give a brief rundown. Look, it's not any more fun for me than it is for you. Try sticking them in a separate PM folder. Also, 20 PMs is not thousands. 3
Elandera she/her Posted March 3, 2019 Posted March 3, 2019 12 minutes ago, Droughtbringer said: Just never ended up getting around to it. Give me just a moment to dig through the thousand PMs that Steel just created to find the one that actually matters for this game, and I'll give a brief rundown. 1 - Duraluminium, and Bendalloy 2 - Zinc, and Bronze 3 - Bendalloy, and Cadmium Sorry I never claimed. Is there a reason that I am suspicious, besides having not listed my Medallions thus far? I highly doubt that me now listing them will in any way clear them, as it was a response from prompting, but is there another reason? Thanks for the claim. There was just that one other post that seemed like it might be an elim giving an excuse early to not claim pewter, which others agreed were likely given to elims D1. You weren't high on my suspect list (the list was in no particular order). But I kept you there because you were one of the other people who had a possible vote on you when a lot of vote manip went onto Shane. I plan to do more analysis before I act on my suspicion of you. 1
Droughtbringer Posted March 3, 2019 Posted March 3, 2019 25 minutes ago, Elandera said: Thanks for the claim. There was just that one other post that seemed like it might be an elim giving an excuse early to not claim pewter, which others agreed were likely given to elims D1. You weren't high on my suspect list (the list was in no particular order). But I kept you there because you were one of the other people who had a possible vote on you when a lot of vote manip went onto Shane. I plan to do more analysis before I act on my suspicion of you. Thanks for letting me know, it is much appreciated.
Sparkrunner he/him Posted March 4, 2019 Posted March 4, 2019 @Arky-boi can confirm my gold scan (sorry to reveal you like that, but my neck's on the line)
Devotary of Spontaneity Posted March 4, 2019 Posted March 4, 2019 6 hours ago, Elandera said: It's not entirely impossible, since we know of several people who've gotten at least the same kind of medallion two turns in a row. I'm pretty sure a lot of that is people receiving different medallions of the same type, but I'm not sure it's impossible for a medallion to be randomly given to the same player. 11 minutes ago, Roadwalker said: [Arky-boi] can confirm my gold scan Ark explicitly denied having used gold on the cycle he had it, so I'm not sure what you're getting at here. Could you explain a bit more?
Mailliw73 he/him Posted March 4, 2019 Posted March 4, 2019 @Kidpen Is it possible to keep a medallion after a cycle?
Snipexe he/him Posted March 4, 2019 Posted March 4, 2019 Looking at other people’s analysis, I’ll throw a vote on Xino because of Fura’s analysis.
Furamirionind They/Any/All Posted March 4, 2019 Posted March 4, 2019 Phew, weekend over! just got home from robotics. 2 minutes ago, Snipexe said: Looking at other people’s analysis, I’ll throw a vote on Xino because of Fura’s analysis. Wait, what? My analysis wasn't about Xino... It was about Ark... *Reread's my post* Yeah, I didn't even use Xino's name once. Are you referring to someone else's analysis?
Droughtbringer Posted March 4, 2019 Posted March 4, 2019 13 minutes ago, Furamirionind said: Phew, weekend over! just got home from robotics If I recall correctly, you do FRC, right? How'd it go?
Snipexe he/him Posted March 4, 2019 Posted March 4, 2019 39 minutes ago, Furamirionind said: Phew, weekend over! just got home from robotics. Wait, what? My analysis wasn't about Xino... It was about Ark... *Reread's my post* Yeah, I didn't even use Xino's name once. Are you referring to someone else's analysis? Sorry I meant @Elandera
Furamirionind They/Any/All Posted March 4, 2019 Posted March 4, 2019 16 minutes ago, Droughtbringer said: If I recall correctly, you do FRC, right? How'd it go? Well, as I live in western WA, the city wasn't prepared for the week of 10-20" of snow... So we lost a week of practice, and parts were delayed by another 3-8 days... so we are really far behind... And this was looking to be our best season so far. : ( Oh well. We have our robot built, wired, and working... Except for the part that actually interacts with the game pieces. We should be cutting those out tomorrow... And hopefully will have those working before our competition next weekend (march 8-10th). Our drive team will have no practice... And we are a 10 person team (which for those that don't know, 40 students tends to be the average amount). This first competition will be a struggle, but we have a really good robot design (and would have had a really good robot if not for the snow), so hopefully our second competition will go better than I expect for the first one. Sorry, started to rant a bit. This is a pretty stressful and frustrating season. : / 1
Droughtbringer Posted March 4, 2019 Posted March 4, 2019 33 minutes ago, Furamirionind said: Well, as I live in western WA, the city wasn't prepared for the week of 10-20" of snow... So we lost a week of practice, and parts were delayed by another 3-8 days... so we are really far behind... And this was looking to be our best season so far. : ( Oh well. We have our robot built, wired, and working... Except for the part that actually interacts with the game pieces. We should be cutting those out tomorrow... And hopefully will have those working before our competition next weekend (march 8-10th). Our drive team will have no practice... And we are a 10 person team (which for those that don't know, 40 students tends to be the average amount). This first competition will be a struggle, but we have a really good robot design (and would have had a really good robot if not for the snow), so hopefully our second competition will go better than I expect for the first one. Sorry, started to rant a bit. This is a pretty stressful and frustrating season. : / You're fine, I know the treacherous nature of the world as soon as Robot Season starts. Good luck with all of your comps! 1 hour ago, Snipexe said: Looking at other people’s analysis, I’ll throw a vote on Xino because of Fura’s analysis. Simply because of the Analysis? Would you mind pointing out what specifically stood out to you, and why you agree with it? 1
Elandera she/her Posted March 4, 2019 Posted March 4, 2019 1 hour ago, Snipexe said: Looking at other people’s analysis, I’ll throw a vote on Xino because of Fura’s analysis. I agree with Drought here, though I do appreciate anyone who takes the time to read and consider that sizeable post. Anything in particular that stood out? Vote count is at: Roadwalker (2): Elandera, Mailliw Ark (1): Fura Xino (1): Snipexe This is still within Zinc range, especially if I'm right about there possibly being another Brass out there (which I'm doubting myself more as the turn goes on), or if a Zinc holder also has Duralumin (would be odd two turns in a row).
Devotary of Spontaneity Posted March 4, 2019 Posted March 4, 2019 @Snipexe, are you referring to Elandera's analysis of my D1 remark about elims maybe not giving tin medallions to villagers? The subsequent knowledge that there are plenty of tin medallions in the game, the max amount according to Roadwalker, seems to make my original statement invalid. While the elims certainly could have given out tin medallions to themselves and likely did, I'm not seeing the possession of tin D1 as being innately suspicious. Even if I did, I'd be more likely to vote for Roadwalker, which I might do anyway as I've yet to see any solid evidence for why Roadwalker's scan should have shown a singular brass medallion .
Elandera she/her Posted March 4, 2019 Posted March 4, 2019 4 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said: The subsequent knowledge that there are plenty of tin medallions in the game, the max amount according to Roadwalker, seems to make my original statement invalid. Yeah, I probably should have filtered that out. I don't think I had compared it yet to the Gold list. Xino was also on my list for being the only one we know of who had 3 medallions D1. However, that's not inherently elim, just a bit odd. Worth noting.
Steeldancer he/him Posted March 4, 2019 Posted March 4, 2019 (edited) Well, for obvious reasons, I haven't been super active. I don't really know why people are finding Roadwalker suspicious, other than the gold scan discrepancy, which is just weird. I don't understand why an eliminator, much less a villager, would lie about something so easily proved a lie by another Gold scan. But, I do want to make sure no funky eliminator vote manipulation, like what Elandera thinks happened last cycle, messes things up. Sorry for not having anything original to say. Edited March 4, 2019 by Steeldancer
Furamirionind They/Any/All Posted March 4, 2019 Posted March 4, 2019 So @Steeldancer, let me get this straight, you dont think Roadwalker is an elim, but you want him dead so the elims dont have the oportunity to lynch a villager? That is counter intuitive. If you think Roadwalker is more likely a villager, you should vote on someone else. I am more suspicious of Ark than Roadwalker, so I am voting on him. If someone else was to vote on Ark as well, the vote would be tied 2-2. If there was vote manip involved in a lynch like this, that would give the village a lot of information. I also feel like you are setting yourself up with that post to lynch Roadwalker, but at the same time seem like you didnt mean to kill a villager. I also want to remind people, there isnt a discrepancy in Roadwalkers gold claim. I dont have Brass, and as far as I know, me claiming Brass was the only problem with it. Why Devs vote was soothed could have even been that Shane misread who Dev was voting for... idk. I just cant imagine an elim lying about something so obviously incorrect. So either they are a villager telling the truth, a villager lying (idk why), or an elim telling the truth. But if the last one is the case, we have no reason to suspect the are an elim, as the entire case against them is about this gold scan. I am still suspicious of Ark... but idk... Ark Steeldancer
Steeldancer he/him Posted March 4, 2019 Posted March 4, 2019 26 minutes ago, Furamirionind said: So @Steeldancer, let me get this straight, you dont think Roadwalker is an elim, but you want him dead so the elims dont have the oportunity to lynch a villager? That is counter intuitive. If you think Roadwalker is more likely a villager, you should vote on someone else. I am more suspicious of Ark than Roadwalker, so I am voting on him. If someone else was to vote on Ark as well, the vote would be tied 2-2. If there was vote manip involved in a lynch like this, that would give the village a lot of information. I also feel like you are setting yourself up with that post to lynch Roadwalker, but at the same time seem like you didnt mean to kill a villager. I also want to remind people, there isnt a discrepancy in Roadwalkers gold claim. I dont have Brass, and as far as I know, me claiming Brass was the only problem with it. Why Devs vote was soothed could have even been that Shane misread who Dev was voting for... idk. I just cant imagine an elim lying about something so obviously incorrect. So either they are a villager telling the truth, a villager lying (idk why), or an elim telling the truth. But if the last one is the case, we have no reason to suspect the are an elim, as the entire case against them is about this gold scan. I am still suspicious of Ark... but idk... Ark Steeldancer I didn't explain that well. I'm not sure if he's an elim or not. I'm not paying enough attention to make a judgement as to whether anyone is, other than myself, and I know I'm a villager. What I can judge is the fact that he is the leading lynch, and I'm happy to help the lynch along if it means less chance of vote manipulation. I would offer another lynch candidate if I had one, but I don't have one. Granted, I don't even know why I'm defending myself. At this point my being alive might be more of a detriment to the village than me being dead. I'm not being very helpful, and am not offering anything new to the situation. I've considered voting myself a couple of times, but I feel like that's a bit cowardly in the end.
Elandera she/her Posted March 4, 2019 Posted March 4, 2019 3 hours ago, Furamirionind said: I also want to remind people, there isnt a discrepancy in Roadwalkers gold claim. I dont have Brass, and as far as I know, me claiming Brass was the only problem with it. As I've said, my suspicion of Roadwalker is not caused by to the Gold scan. There were a lot of posts of his I linked to in my analysis that all gave me a bad impression. Comparatively, Ark had one, if I remember correctly. Yes, the vote manipulation last round was suspect, and I'd be okay if Ark does, but he's not my top suspicion.
Devotary of Spontaneity Posted March 4, 2019 Posted March 4, 2019 It looks like this day wasn't long enough for us despite the extension. Roadwalker hasn't clarified anything, Ark never came back, and we still don't know if a specific medallion can return to the same player and whether a gold scan would consider that to be passing. I'll follow through in voting Roadwalker, but it really would have been nice to know what's going on.
Kidpen he/him Posted March 4, 2019 Author Posted March 4, 2019 9 hours ago, Mailliw73 said: @Kidpen Is it possible to keep a medallion after a cycle? It is not, no. Medallions pass exclusively to a different player. The Day is now over! The Night might take me a short while, but not as long as it has in the past.
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