Pacing of previous Brandon stories suggests Odium is not the ultimate Big Bad

[shawnhargreaves he/him]

We all know how Brandon likes to surprise his readers with unexpected plot twists.  The nature of these surprises varies from book to book (Brandon is too imaginative a writer to repeat himself exactly) but all his major works to date have ended with the Big Bad antagonist being someone other than we expected near the start of the story.

 

I believe we can predict the timing, if not the details, of future Stormlight Archive reveals by looking at how Brandon has paced these things in previous works.

 

 

Let's start with Mistborn.  My paperback editions are 643, 763 and 724 pages long respectively, = 2130 total.

 

While reading The Final Empire, I expected the Lord Ruler would be the Big Bad of all three books, only for Vin to kill him on page 632 - 29% of the way through the trilogy.

 

Well of Ascension doesn't have a single clear opponent.  Multiple threats, lots of foreboding, all leading up to the chilling words "I am FREE!" as we meet Ruin for the first time on page 754 - 66% of the way through the trilogy.

 

During Hero of Ages we learn much more about Ruin, and there are more unveils eg. true nature of the mists, but I'm sticking with 66% as the moment when we meet the ultimate enemy of this trilogy directly (as opposed to foreshadowing) for the first time.

 

 

How about Warbreaker, which is 652 pages?

 

At first I thought the God King was the bad guy, only to learn otherwise as Siri discovers his tongue was cut out on page 213 - 32% through the book.

 

The next big twist is when Vivenna finds Parlin dead and discovers Tonk Fah is a sociopath on page 417, followed by Denth as villain on the next page - 64% of the way through.

Finally, we learn about Bluefingers and the Pahn Kahl on page 597 - 91%.

 

How about Elantris, which is 615 pages in my edition?

 

The first twist comes on page 409 (66% of the way through), when we find Iadon killing servent girls. Next up is Ahan's betrayal on page 538 (87%).

 

More importantly, Dilaf is revealed to be a Dakhor monk on page 567 (92%) and Hrathen saves Sarene on page 585 (95%).

 

This is less complete a twist than Mistborn or Warbreaker because we were right all along about Fjordell being the enemy.  The surprise is that we expected Hrathen to be their chief representative and thus main antagonist, when in fact this turns out to be Dilaf.

 

 

This pacing surprsingly consistent (although not identical) across all three sources:

• Average location of first major "whoah, what I thought was going on here is fundamentally wrong" moment is 42% of the way through  (the first such moment in any of the three stories was at 29%).
   
• Average location of first unveil of ultimate Big Bad is at 74%  (first such moment in any of the three stories is 66%)

 

But wait a minute...

 

Stormlight Archive is 10 books.  After WoR, we are 20% of the way through.  If this series is paced anything like what Brandon has done in the past, we have not yet reached the first significant plot twist, and will not meet the true Big Bad of the epic until book 6 or 7!

 

And what about the Cosmere as a whole?  Brandon says there will be 36 novels total, of which we have seen 7 so far.  That's 19%.

 

From this I conclude that:

1. Odium is not the Big Bad of Stormlight Archive, let alone the Cosmere as a whole  (if he was, this would mean Brandon has unveiled his ultimate enemy a full 46% sooner than in any previous Cosmere works)
    
2. We ain't seen nothing yet!

[Delightful]

 

 

1. We ain't seen nothing yet!

I think we can definitely be sure of that!

 

I also noticed, Kal's flashbacks finish, then at the book's climax we see the most dramatic part, of Tien's death.

Shallan's flashbacks do the same thing, finishing the arc, and then in the book's climax finally going back to explain what started everything. I wonder if every book will now be *flashbacks in chronological order showing events* with the last flashback as*big dramatic thing out of chronological order because its most dramatic to leave for last*. I sort of hope not, actually.

[GreyPilgrim he/him]

I have often had similar thoughts, based on the same trend. I think it is relevant to note, however, that the Stormlight Archive is divided into two cycles, each of five books. Brandon has said that he really sees the two arcs as separate stories. So we're really almost 40% into the story at this point. We have hardly even seen Odium as a villain at this point. So while I think we should definitely be more wary of assuming Odium will turn out to be the Big Bad, I still think it likely he will be it. We know Hoid has him singled out as it, and while his dragon friend disagrees, Hoid is far more cosmere-knowledgeable than we are, so I think we should trust him to some extent. I don't think Odium will be the Big Bad of the whole cosmere, however. He may also not even be around for the second Stormlight Cycle. I am sure something will happen in cycle one that we don't expect, but I think Odium will remain the major enemy. The twist will be in cycle two, like, "Yay, we defeated evil, everyone have a cookie. Oh storms we have bigger problems."

 

I know that is basically exactly what happened in Mistborn, but I still think it is pretty likely.

[Delightful]

I have often had similar thoughts, based on the same trend. I think it is relevant to note, however, that the Stormlight Archive is divided into two cycles, each of five books. Brandon has said that he really sees the two arcs as separate stories. So we're really almost 40% into the story at this point. We have hardly even seen Odium as a villain at this point. So while I think we should definitely be more wary of assuming Odium will turn out to be the Big Bad, I still think it likely he will be it. We know Hoid has him singled out as it, and while his dragon friend disagrees, Hoid is far more cosmere-knowledgeable than we are, so I think we should trust him to some extent. I don't think Odium will be the Big Bad of the whole cosmere, however. He may also not even be around for the second Stormlight Cycle. I am sure something will happen in cycle one that we don't expect, but I think Odium will remain the major enemy. The twist will be in cycle two, like, "Yay, we defeated evil, everyone have a cookie. Oh storms we have bigger problems."

 

I know that is basically exactly what happened in Mistborn, but I still think it is pretty likely.

 

WoR

and also the end of WoR: Yay, we personally survived the Everstorm and the Voidbringers! No wait, they're still around to destroy the whole world.

I rather hope that the bigger problems become evident BEFORE the smaller problems are resolved, much like

sadeas become not-such-a-horrible-villian in comparison to Voidbringers, then being killed anyway.

[Ketek]

I think Odium will be the big bad of the Stormlight Archive. Unlike Mistborn, or Warbreaker, the Stormlight Archive is more an epic series - I'd compare it more with WoT than the former two. It's hard to think of anything more threatening right now than the Shard of hatred.

 

Not the big bad of the Cosmere? Likely, we'll know more when the modern Mistborn trilogy comes out. And Odium is trapped in the greater Roshar system after all...

[Delightful]

I think Odium will be the big bad of the Stormlight Archive. Unlike Mistborn, or Warbreaker, the Stormlight Archive is more an epic series - I'd compare it more with WoT than the former two. It's hard to think of anything more threatening right now than the Shard of hatred.

 

Not the big bad of the Cosmere? Likely, we'll know more when the modern Mistborn trilogy comes out. And Odium is trapped in the greater Roshar system after all...

I don't know how to find it. but there's a WoB somewhere that Adonalsium had some kind of opposing force, which could possibly eventually be worse than Odium. Of what we know so far, Odium is the main antagonist. (Plot twist! What if it's Hoid, pretending to be good? we actually dont know terribly much about him....he could be in league with those sneaky Herdazians after all.

[Ketek]

I remember that quote, yeah.

 

But for the Stormlight Archive, I really don't think it'll surface. Hence why I said we'll learn more with the next Mistborn trilogy. As for Hoid... nah. I really doubt he is. He's just indifferent to the fate of Roshar. 

[Delightful]

I was just joking about Hoid .

 

For now, I agree Odium is the main enemy of SA. I think I'm just going to withhold my judgement and wait to see if someone else jumps in as a worse antagonist. (But then, maybe I'm just overly cynical in regard to Sanderson plot-twists. I'm still half-expecting something other than the Parshendi to be the Voidbringers, due to no evidence except that it seems like too easy of an explanation. I'm waiting for chasmfiends and Reshi Isles greatshells to go on a rampage or something.)

[GreyPilgrim he/him]

Good point that Mistborn III trilogy will introduce the true cosmere threat. Brandon has said that Hoid will be a major character, if not protagonist in that trilogy. I believe the cosmere big bad will come from Yolen.

 

Rampaging Reshu Isle greatshells give me nightmares.

[Left he/him]

I'm expecting Odium to be the big boss for the first five, but for someone else to take up his shard or something for the second five.

[Gabriele she/her]

 

How about Elantris, which is 615 pages in my edition?

 

The first twist comes on page 409 (66% of the way through), when we find Iadon killing servent girls. Next up is Ahan's betrayal on page 538 (87%).

 

More importantly, Dilaf is revealed to be a Dakhor monk on page 567 (92%) and Hrathen saves Sarene on page 585 (95%).

 

This is less complete a twist than Mistborn or Warbreaker because we were right all along about Fjordell being the enemy.  The surprise is that we expected Hrathen to be their chief representative and thus main antagonist, when in fact this turns out to be Dilaf.

 

That could also be partly in the eye of the reader. I suspected Dilaf was much worse than Hrathen from his first appearance.

Edited April 13, 2014 by Gabriele

[king of nowhere]

It is certainly possible, although I have troubles figuring out what could be more dangerous than a shard.

On the other hand, as brandon likes to surprise his readers, maybe this timne the surprise will be that the big bad presented in book one will be exactly the big bad of all the series.

[Shaggai]

I think that Odium will be the Big Bad, but it'll turn out that we were missing some important piece of information about the imminent threat. The Everstorm will probably be significantly less important than we think. Sure, it'll cause massive destruction, but remember Dalinar's last vision in WoK? Even an Everstorm couldn't cause the sort of destruction that Honor feared would come to pass.

[kaellok he/him]

OP, just so you're aware, what you've noticed is actually a rather common form of pacing throughout pretty much all of storytelling--books, movies, plays, operas, etc.  Not necessarily so much in the Big Bad reveal, but in having something occur that challenges the audience's previously held beliefs/notions regarding what in particular is going on. 

 

I currently think that Odium actually is the Big Bad for the first half of the Stormlight Archive books, but absolutely not for the Cosmere as a whole.  We haven't actually 'seen' Odium, after all; just a couple things that he's set into motion.  I'm tentatively guessing at Nalan being the Big Bad for the second half, but I don't have anything to back that up except a gut feeling.

[Leuthie]

One thing we seem to forget is that Odium's goal isn't to kill humans. He Splintered Honor and is seeking to splinter Cultivation. He is probably also seeking to escape whatever trap thats currently holding him on Roshar.

Cultivation becomes a wild card in this. Does she care about humanity? Will she sacrifice them to keep Odium trapped and herself safe? Lift's spren seems to indicate that both Shards on Roshar might end up as antagonists... Or as opposing forces that our protagonists get crushed between.

Odium is the big bad, but there's more going on.

[shawnhargreaves he/him]

OP, just so you're aware, what you've noticed is actually a rather common form of pacing throughout pretty much all of storytelling--books, movies, plays, operas, etc.

 

Brandon's prior pacing is significantly different from the standard of the epic fantasy genre, though, much of which follows the formula established by Tolkein:  "Gandalf sits down with a Baggins and explains the parameters of quest;  Baggins sets out on quest;  many adventures and much character growth ensue;  triumphal success of the quest;  final return home with a little sting in the tail..."

 

The level and magnitude of twists in Brandon's works is highly atypical for the fantasy genre, although would be expected in other styles such as thriller, or much of scifi.

[Quiver he/him]

 

And what about the Cosmere as a whole?  Brandon says there will be 36 novels total, of which we have seen 7 so far.  That's 19%.

 

So close to the magic number! Unless you're going by Stephen King logic, in which case 19 is the magic number, and the cosmere is going to end in an extremly unsatisfying manner.

 

Nothing much else to say though. There are fantasy epics which have the villain introduced early though; how quickly is Sauron mentioned in Lord of the Rings? Or the Forsaken in Eye of the World? Or the White Walkers in ASOIAF?

 

Honestly... I like Stormlight Archive, don't get me wrong... but it seems like the most 'traditional' of Brandon's books, so I'm not sure if we can rule out Odium as the real Bad.

 

That said, I don't think he is. Maybe he's the Big Bad of Stormlight Archive, but for the rest of the Cosmere? My bets are either on whatever force shattered Adonalsium or Banadin as a Franchise Villain.

[Kobold King he/him]

I do find it suspicious that in the prelude, Kalak and Ishar mention an "enemy" but do not mention Odium by name. It almost makes me think Mr. Sanderson is hiding something...

[Aether he/him]

A propos Rayse, I was somewhat surprised when I read that he was trapped in the Greater Roshar system. I wonder how that was accomplished!

[duladen he/him]

I believe that Brandon has stated that Stormlight Archive, although it involves several worldhoppers and cosmere aware characters, will not have a major impact on the story arc of the cosmere as a whole. If we assume that Odium is to be defeated somewhere in the series (this is fantasy after all, good is supposed to triumph over evil), then I think we can safely assume that he is not the Big Bad of the cosmere. Or else SA would have a huge impact on the storyline of the cosmere. A way around this is that maybe the resolution of SA isn't Odium's defeat, but his banishment from the Greater Roshar system, but I'm not on board with that idea.

[Shardbearer he/him]

I believe that Brandon has stated that Stormlight Archive, although it involves several worldhoppers and cosmere aware characters, will not have a major impact on the story arc of the cosmere as a whole. If we assume that Odium is to be defeated somewhere in the series (this is fantasy after all, good is supposed to triumph over evil), then I think we can safely assume that he is not the Big Bad of the cosmere. Or else SA would have a huge impact on the storyline of the cosmere. A way around this is that maybe the resolution of SA isn't Odium's defeat, but his banishment from the Greater Roshar system, but I'm not on board with that idea.

 

I think maybe you have this a little backwards. You don't need to know about the Cosmere to read SA, but that doesn't mean you can read the Cosmere crossover books without reading SA.

[18th Shard he/him]

Or we think we defeat "Odium", only to discover that wasn't Odium.

[Delightful]

Or we think we defeat "Odium", only to discover that wasn't Odium.

ITS A TRAP!

[Kobold King he/him]

ITS A TRAP!

I may or may not have screamed this out loud while reading about the Battle of the Tower...

[FirstSelector]

I am partial to the idea that the events on Roshar are drawing the attention of various Cosmere-aware groups because the danger of letting Odium run rampant is incredibly serious.  In particular, Odium may very well be defeated or incapacitated at the end of the Stormlight Archive.

 

This brings up an interesting point - what would be "defeat" for Odium?  I figure it would be very dangerous for him to be Splintered (think evil spren everywhere...) or to allow someone else to pick up the Shard (over time it would warp them as well).  They could trap his mind and prevent it from escaping, but that requires a huge amount of power.  However, we have to consider the various time scales here - if Rayse was killed, the time it takes Odium to break apart would set a timer on how long it could be until the Adonalsium plotline is wrapped up.  Maybe that is comparable with the time until the third Mistborn trilogy.

 

My best guess is that Odium will be somehow bound by whatever rules Shards have to obey until someone can pick up the shard without too much danger to themselves or the Cosmere.

 

But I digress - =http://www.17thshard.com/forum/topic/5839-odium-is-a-mini-boss/?hl=mini-bossBrandon has stated that there was force or group that opposed Adonalsium.  The real "end boss," as it were, will likely be from this group.  In fact, this means that the big fight with Odium is a distraction from what everyone should be focusing on.

 

Based on the overall length of the Cosmere series, we should (perhaps) start to see the barest of hints about this.  There are very sparse references to the "God Beyond" or "Unknown God" in recent works, so this might be the direction to start thinking.