Quick Fix Game 31: <MISSING VARIABLE>

[Elenion he/him]

I came, I saw, then I went to bed. Night, all! 

[Bort he/him]

Well, I guess that's me dead. Again. 

My return to SE lasts 2 rounds in 2 games each 

[DeTess she/her]

I assume defenses are mentioned in the write-up if they are relevant (ie: blocked an attack)? If so, I think we can assume that Sophie decided to convert someone today.

[A Joe in the Bush]

2 minutes ago, randuir said:

I assume defenses are mentioned in the write-up if they are relevant (ie: blocked an attack)? If so, I think we can assume that Sophie decided to convert someone today.

They are not. But a Knight would know if they managed to defend a player. Conversions, failed or successful, are also not mentioned.

[Elandera she/her]

5 minutes ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

They are not. But a Knight would know if they managed to defend a player. Conversions, failed or successful, are also not mentioned.

And if I understand correctly, if someone is immune, they would also know if Sophie attempted a conversion on them?

Edit: Until confirmed otherwise, it would be safest to assume someone was converted.

Edited April 17, 2018 by Elandera

[Young Bard he/him]

I've heard through PM's that the knight didn't block an attack last cycle, so Sophie almost certainly converted.

Hmmm... I'm going to through the list again, but I'm thinking of either Drought (who I hope to see more of), Len or Orlok as potential Sophies. Potential acolytes are a lot harder, but I'm actually going to guess that Sophie might have gone for some newer players as a way of trying to do what people wouldn't expect, so maybe Devotary, Crimsn or Elandara.

[DeTess she/her]

7 minutes ago, Young Bard said:

Hmmm... I'm going to through the list again, but I'm thinking of either Drought (who I hope to see more of), Len or Orlok as potential Sophies. Potential acolytes are a lot harder, but I'm actually going to guess that Sophie might have gone for some newer players as a way of trying to do what people wouldn't expect, so maybe Devotary, Crimsn or Elandara.

I don't think it's Devotary, though the reason is a bit IKYK. Most of us have said that Devotary is almost certainly not Sophie, which means most of us regarded him as cleared before the conversion. This means that Devotary is a very obvious choice for conversion, and therefore probably not the best choice.

[Droughtbringer]

*pokes head in*

 

Okay, I actually have time... for a while. Reading through the end of last cycle was kinda crazy, tons of vote switching, tons of stuff going on, it looked fun

I'll spend some time reading through the thread, and see what I can come up with. From my brief skim, I got a bad gut read on Orlok, but can't say why.

[Orlok Tsubodai he/him]

13 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

I wanted to vote on someone who had posted, had yet to be voted on, and hadn't recently died in LG44. At the time, that was you, Elandera, and YoungBard. Out of those three, I chose YoungBard. I thought a tied vote put him up to possibly be lynched and I saw his accusation of me as being village indicative, so I switched my vote to Droughtbringer, who had since posted. 

Currently, Randuir is up for the lynch. I would like to see more from @Droughtbringer and @Eternum before I place a final vote.

@Devotary of Spontaneity, what was your reasoning for setting those criteria? Why did you initially choose Bard?

8 hours ago, randuir said:

You're allowed to struggle to believe that, but me missing that is pretty much exactly what happened. The roles where the point of interest for me because they did something new (the progression to ever stronger roles), while I thought I knew most of the stuff about Sophie already (eliminator faction that can convert). When I started wondering about whether Sophie started alone I read through it again, but skipped over the line you're quoting here. If you look back to Lg43, I have a 'talent' for being quite aware about what some parts of the rules do, yet being either unaware or mistaken about what other parts to, despite the rules being quite clear on that front, and even very close to stuff I did get right.

The thing that felt off was your mention of 'until you convince me otherwise'. This felt like too open ended for something that was apparently intended to be just a poke vote.

Honestly, my perception of who is and isn't new might have been skewed somewhat (based on Eternum's comment I already dropped him from the 'new'list, while I think I just haven't played that many games with Crimsn). It might be that I'm reading too much into it, but we've had very little information, so I'll try to make use of anything I think could point us to Sophie. I also gave more detail on those reads in this post:  

As I said, you're allowed to believe that, but I think LG43 proved you wrong. That was a far more complicated game, of course, but it's the same kind of mistake as I made there.

Voting is important for gaining information. As Elenion pointed out, we've only got a couple of cycles to lynch Sophie or a bot, and if we all just sit around hoping for information to come to us, nothing will happen. By voting you force the discussion to take place.

tally

Bort (3): Drought, Elenion, Devotary
Elenion (1): Bort
Drought (2): Randuir, Young Bard
Randuir (2): Elandera, Orlok
Crimsn (0): Len

Randuir, I’m afraid I maintain my view that it’s not really believable. I believe Sophie to be one of yourself, Drought, Eternum and Elendara. I think Eternum is much less likely based on his post last cycle, and would lynch Drought after you, if you do turn out to be a villager.

I think my initial post was quite in keeping with how I normally start games. I don’t like poke votes that are shakeable merely by appearing, and placing a higher bar typically forces more information out of the player targeted.

@Droughtbringer, all I can say to that is that I was incredibly busy until yesterday evening, and am still dealing with jetlag and insomnia. I’ve now got more time, hence the change in play style.

[Eternum he/him]

I'll have more time from now on, so... expect more from me.

Currently, I'm willing to lynch Rand. My main suspicion of him comes from his part in Bort's lynch last cycle, something I don't think has been mentioned yet. His vote read very off to me. It felt like taking advantage of Drought's tentative vote. It starts an easy lynch, and lets Rand divert the blame to Drought if push comes to shove.

He did remove his vote later to put it on Devotary, to widen the conversion protection pool presumably, but it can just as easily be distancing himself from the Bort lynch.

[Droughtbringer]

3 hours ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

@Droughtbringer, all I can say to that is that I was incredibly busy until yesterday evening, and am still dealing with jetlag and insomnia. I’ve now got more time, hence the change in play style.

Okay, that is fair. Since I am only now about to start my analysis, I'll make sure to keep that in consideration.

[Elenion he/him]

12 hours ago, randuir said:

I don't think it's Devotary, though the reason is a bit IKYK. Most of us have said that Devotary is almost certainly not Sophie, which means most of us regarded him as cleared before the conversion. This means that Devotary is a very obvious choice for conversion, and therefore probably not the best choice.

But by this reasoning, Devotary would be a good target... I'm not entirely sure, but I think I agree with you on this.

The Bort lynch gave us some information about Rand. Last cycle I was hesitant to lynch Rand because I thought he might have caught Sophie!Bort. Now that Bort has flipped village, I know that Rand's analysis wasn't accurate. That in and of itself isn't an evil thing, but it's no longer giving me good vibes to cancel out the evil vibes from that clarification question that sounded like distancing that Orlok pointed out. At the beginning of the cycle, Drought was also on my suspects list because he wasn't saying anything that could give me a read on him, potentially on purpose. Even though Drought hasn't finished his analysis yet, his efforts to speak more sound village, so I'm going to go ahead and put my vote on Randuir.

[DeTess she/her]

I wish I had time to do this the subtle way. Unfortunately I've had a busy evening and need to be up in about 8 and a half hours for an internship interview, so brute force it is. I'm the knight.

I'd also like to point out that there's 8 players left alive. If all three of the original roles claim, that leaves a group of 5 people that contains both Sophie and the convert. Depending on who ends up claiming, this might narrow things down even more, allowing for the game to be solved. I'm not sure if a mass claim is a good idea at this point, but I do think it needs to be considered.

[Orlok Tsubodai he/him]

Well, it looks like I’m going to have to stay up a bit. My original list of suspicions was Rand, Drought, Eternum and Elendera, but discounting Rand, I’ll vote on Droughtbringer, unless someone counterclaims, or the individual who had claimed to be in touch with the Knight says that it wasn’t Rand.

@randuir, someone told me that they’d contacted you, as I’d asked them to give me the Knight’s identity. Would you PM me with their name, to verify your story isn’t a last minute attempt to get out of the lynch?

[Elenion he/him]

Assuming no evidence comes to light that would oppose Rand's claim, we should end the Rand lynch, fast. My next-to-top suspect is Drought, and he still hasn't come forward with that analysis post. I was reading village on his attempts to speak more, and still am, but I haven't got a solid read on him and I think there's a chance that he's Sophie. To put in a kill or conversion, you only need to be on once. Joining Orlok on Drought also gets the lynch solidly away from Rand; the only vote now left on him is @Eternum.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

16 hours ago, randuir said:

I assume defenses are mentioned in the write-up if they are relevant (ie: blocked an attack)? If so, I think we can assume that Sophie decided to convert someone today.

 

15 hours ago, Young Bard said:

I've heard through PM's that the knight didn't block an attack last cycle, so Sophie almost certainly converted.

Since Randuir apparently only learned that he failed to protect someone an hour before news of this reached @Young Bard, there's a decent chance that he can confirm Randuir's claim. If not, I can tag @Droughtbringer, @Elandera, and @Crimsn-Wolf, who have not yet been summoned to view Randuir's claim.

1 hour ago, randuir said:

I'd also like to point out that there's 8 players left alive. If all three of the original roles claim, that leaves a group of 5 people that contains both Sophie and the convert. Depending on who ends up claiming, this might narrow things down even more, allowing for the game to be solved. I'm not sure if a mass claim is a good idea at this point, but I do think it needs to be considered.

Nine players left, seven Machineborn against Sophie and a bot. @A Joe in the Bush, if we lynch Sophie with one life left today and she tries to convert, will the conversion occur? If the answer is no she'll almost certainly attempt a conversion. If she does attempt to convert, we'll end up with five Machineborn against two bots, or four Machineborn if we mislynch. That puts us within two cycles of a loss. If the answer is yes and we mislynch today, Sophie probably won't convert, leaving us at 5-2, which again is one cycle away from a loss unless the knight gets lucky. The players who claim may well die, making our safe roles no longer safe, but it might be worth it. We are going to need to narrow down the convert list before we get to the endgame. Unless Randuir gets counterclaimed, the main Sophie suspects are <Drought, Orlok, Elandera, possibly Eternum> while the possible converts are <Eternum, Elenion, Devotary, YoungBard, Elandera, CrimsnWolf, Drought>, with one of the italicized players granted immunity by votes.

[Orlok Tsubodai he/him]

I can confirm that Bard can confirm Randuir’s claim. I messaged Bard earlier in the cycle, and he told me he knew the Knight’s identity. I know the identity of the Steward, and trying to solve the game asked if he’d tell me the identity of the Knight. He did not, but asked the Knight whether they’d be ok with him telling me, and hadn’t yet had a response. Ten minutes after I asked Randuir who contacted him in thread, Randuir confirmed to me that it was Bard. This doesn’t strictly guarantee that Rand is the Knight, but it makes it very, very likely.

[A Joe in the Bush]

15 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

we lynch Sophie with one life left today and she tries to convert, will the conversion occur?

The conversion will not occur.

[Eternum he/him]

I will retract my vote on Rand then.

I won't vote yet. I'll certainly be awake before the end of the cycle though, it's at about 9 AM my time.

[Elandera she/her]

With the reasonable evidence in favor of village!randuir, the top three on my suspicious list would be Drought, Eternum and Orlok as the rest have given me pretty strong village impressions. I'll hold off on a vote for now, until I can go back and analyse posts a bit more.

[xxGaea]

Okay! Now that I no longer have [medically prescribed] drugs in my system, I can actually think clearly! I should still be taking aforementioned medication, but I decided I didn't want to anymore so...I stopped. This means that I just spent the last hour or so going over all the posts in the game so far, and finally got to do some lovely analyzing~

So, the players that stick out the most to me as suspicious are Elenion and Elandera. 

A lot of how I go about analyzing and gathering my suspicions is by gut-reading, but I do have reasons other than just that. That being said, I am only covering the three I mentioned above because they are the ones I got the biggest vibes from. I don't have feelings towards Drought one way or another, since he hasn't posted enough for me to get a solid read yet.

For @Elenion, my main reason for suspicion is from the first cycle. He seemed to push the idea that a lynch for day one would help the village, when it doesn't give any real information to the village. My suspicion on him are soft, as the majority of his other posts have felt more village-y.

@Elandera is the person I am most suspicious of, after reading through everything up until this point. So far, their posts haven't really seemed to help us gain any real information. They haven't really voiced any suspicions, only why they have village reads on players. Other than that, their posts have just felt off to me. They feel like they are making an effort to appear to be contributing to discussion, without it really looking like they are. Their posts have felt like they lacked any real discussion, other than more or less going with the flow and giving non-committal reasons for why they are.

[Young Bard he/him]

First, I can verify Rand's claim.

Secondly, I think the list of possible Sophie's right now is Drought, Eternum, and Elenion, with Orlok as a distant fourth if they're all village. I'm leaning against Eternum, simply because I don't think they were active enough to submit actions. I could also get behind a lynch on Elenion, though I've started a PM with them in the hopes of getting a better read. Actually, simply due to opportunity, I'm leaning slightly towards Elenion being Sophie, because I wonder whether Drought's not been active enough to submit actions for Sophie. (If this lynch doesn't take off, I'd be OK with a Drought lynch, though.)

As for the convert, there are several more options - basically all of us except Orlok and Rand is possible. For now, though, Sophie's my priority, as we have a much better idea of who Sophie is, and lynching Sophie will result in one less convert being sent over to the Eliminators.

[Elandera she/her]

@Crimsn-Wolf, I'll try to address your suspicions, but I can understand why it might not help (as has been a problem in some PMs). I honestly am at a loss for who might be Sophie, which is why I'm mostly just mentioning who I believe is village to help narrow things down. I'm new to this (which I admit would be an easy elim claim), but it leaves me at a bit of a disadvantage with reading people. That has, unfortunately, led me to going with the flow as you've said.

My main goal has been trying to keep some advantage for village, mostly by making sure we spread out secondary votes.

For now, I think I'll place a vote on Eternum. I believe it's possible they used their earlier distance in the forum to work as Sophie without seeming suspicious.

If my count is correct, that puts us one vote each on Elenion, Eternum, and Elandera, and two on Drought.

Edited April 18, 2018 by Elandera
Fixed vote counts

[Eternum he/him]

I'll place a vote on Elandera. I don't really like the Drought lynch. He hasn't been very active, and lynching him provides very little info. Elandera on the other hand has been discussing, if not really saying anything special. There's more to find out there. If this is left up to the gods of luck and chance, at least the other person gains immunity. 

[A Joe in the Bush]

Hey, i have fallen ill, and cannot perform a writeup tonight. I am adding @little wilson and @Seonid to the role PM's. If one of them gets online in time to do the writeup, i would appreciate them soing it. If not, the turn will be extended by 24 hours. I apologize for the short notice.