Quick Fix Game 31: <MISSING VARIABLE>

[Elandera]

1 minute ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

Hey, i have fallen ill, and cannot perform a writeup tonight. I am adding @little wilson and @Seonid to the role PM's. If one of them gets online in time to do the writeup, i would appreciate them soing it. If not, the turn will be extended by 24 hours. I apologize for the short notice.

Sorry to hear that Joe. Feel better soon!

[Eternum]

Get well soon, Joe! Push comes to shove, we can wait.

[Elenion]

2 hours ago, Crimsn-Wolf said:

For @Elenion, my main reason for suspicion is from the first cycle. He seemed to push the idea that a lynch for day one would help the village, when it doesn't give any real information to the village. My suspicion on him are soft, as the majority of his other posts have felt more village-y.

I don't think you read my post right. Quoting from it, emphasis mine:

Quote

Any lynch would help Sophie except one on her, but a mislynch on an inactive would hurt discussion less than a mislynch on an active. If everyone looks to be innocent, we have the same chance of success, so we should minimize the risk we take in getting that identical chance of success.

I didn't address no-lynch voting because TBH the idea didn't occur to me and the rules didn't specify that there could be a no-lynch vote. I didn't act like a D1 lynch would help us, I acted like the D1 lynch would help Sophie so we should exercise discretion on who we killed D1, mitigating the danger of killing a valuable asset by killing a player who hadn't even posted.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

5 hours ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

The conversion will not occur.

So if we do manage to lynch Sophie, we'll end up with six Machineborn against a single bot, assuming Sophie started two lives. That should be winnable, especially if Randuir can self-protect.

5 hours ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

I know the identity of the Steward

Would you intervene if we were about to lynch the Steward? Did you learn their identity before or after you suggested lynching them? Elandera has been on your list of suspects for a couple of cycles now, and she's posted a fair amount more than Drought or Eternum. What are your reasons for keeping her as uncleared but then voting for Drought?

7 hours ago, randuir said:

 I'm not sure if a mass claim is a good idea at this point, but I do think it needs to be considered.

As Joe's clarification means that Sophie will likely die today, I don't think roleclaiming this cycle is a good idea unless you're about to be lynched. Next cycle, a mass role claim will be helpful to clear out the convert list. If you can self-protect, Randuir, it might be a good idea to do so to help ensure that all three roles stay confirmed good.

Out of our seven villagers, at least three of them are immune to conversion, and that number could potentially swell up to five. Despite that, the chances that a conversion will fail is low. It's good that we managed to get a tie vote for second place in this regard, but there are still enough players without vote protection that three attempted conversions have a high chance of getting the necessary one success.

Finally, we have a tie vote between Droughtbringer and Elandera, with singular votes on Elenion and Eternum. Drought appears to be a suspect largely because everyone else has been considered soft-cleared. That seems to be the case for most of the candidates, although Orlok has yet to garner any votes despite being on several players' suspect lists. I see Drought and Elandera as more likely to be Sophie than Elenion or Eternum, but I still don't know about Orlok. 

[DeTess]

So, the two lynch targets right now seem to be Drought and Elandera. I'm not particularly certain about either of those two lynches, though I like the Elandera lynch less. The kill on Walin just seems too calculated to be done by someone completely new. @Elandera, have you played Maffia before elsewhere?

Drought on the other hand seems to be a lynch target by process of elimination. There's not necessarily something wrong with that, but its an outcome I'd expect if everyone else was soft/hard cleared, and that's not the case here.

Right now, I'm seeing Elenion and Orlok as the alternatives to the lynch on these two. Eternum less so, mostly because he only really became active during C2. Between Elenion and Orlok, I'd prefer not to lynch Orlok without a very well reasoned out case, and I don't have the time to make one right now. And I've just run out of time to take a quick look at elenion as well.

I'm going to vote Droughtbringer, because between him and Elandera, he seems to be the more suspicious of the two. I'll be following the thread on mobile for any last minute changes though.

Edited April 18, 2018 by randuir
Grammar

[Elandera]

@randuir, I've played Mafia before several years ago (I'm talking at least 5), and never on a forum. It's a whole new beast though, because most of my ability to read people in Mafia is based on body language, which is impossible here.

[Eternum]

I guess I'll change my vote from Elandera to Orlok. 

[Elenion]

"TK421 do you copy?"

"Yessir, TK421 here, I copy."

"Are you at your post?"

"At my post."

"TK421 why aren't you at your post?"

TK421 shook his head in exasperation.

"Status update?"

"No sign of movement. Wait... we have a movement from Eternum."

[I'm typing this up and he just posted, lol. This'll change my plans for this RP.]

"Do you think it's suspicious?"

"It doesn't look aggressive. He might be attempting to make Orlok unconvertable again."

 

Turnover is at 1 a.m. for me, so I'm going to stay up to see the results but don't expect any posts or PMs from me, because I'll be off to bed.

Edit: Forgot that Joe is sick. NVM, I'm off to bed now. 

Edited April 18, 2018 by Elenion

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

Drought(3): Orlok, Elenion, Randuir
Elandera(1): Crimsn
Elenion(1): YoungBard
Orlok(1): Eternum

Edit:
Crimsn(1): Devotary

Drought never provided his analysis, and it's late in the cycle. If the cycle gets extended for 24 hours, I'm going to look at him again.

Players who definitely don't have vote protection: Orlok, YoungBard, Elandera, Crimsn. If we get a vote on YoungBard, then everybody could conceivably be immune to conversions.

Edited April 18, 2018 by Devotary of Spontaneity
Added vote to tally

[Elandera]

2 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Drought(3): Orlok, Elenion, Randuir
Elandera(1): Crimsn
Elenion(1): YoungBard
Orlok(1): Eternum

Edit:
Crimsn(1): Devotary

Drought never provided his analysis, and it's late in the cycle. If the cycle gets extended for 24 hours, I'm going to look at him again.

Players who definitely don't have vote protection: Orlok, YoungBard, Elandera, Crimsn. If we get a vote on YoungBard, then everybody could conceivably be immune to conversions.

There's also my vote on Eternum.

[Eternum]

Only one of those becomes immune, Devotary.

Edit: Evidently, the cycle is over. Let's wait on one of the IMs to see what happens.

Edited April 18, 2018 by Eternum

[Young Bard]

1 minute ago, Eternum said:

Only one of those becomes immune, Devotary.

It was part of a plan Devotary proposed Cycle 1. If the Eliminators try to convert, they won't know which players have roles and which might have been protected from the lynch.

[Eternum]

2 minutes ago, Young Bard said:

It was part of a plan Devotary proposed Cycle 1. If the Eliminators try to convert, they won't know which players have roles and which might have been protected from the lynch.

Ah, okay. That makes a certain amount of sense.

Now, I suggest we refrain from talking until we know what'll happen with turnover.

[Eternum]

Sorry for the double post. Evidently, turnover ain't happening, so discuss your hearts out. As Joe said, it'll probably be extended until tomorrow.

[DeTess]

I'd run out of time this morning to go over Elenion again, so I'll do that now.

He starts with some projections on how many cycles we've got to solve the game, It has been noted that he initially got it right that Sophie would get a kill, but that set of projections also assumed that Sophie could kill and convert, so that's another reason I don't think that projection was based on on privileged knowledge. If Sophie's role PM was as detailed as mine, whoever got that role knew all the options open to Sophie. That having been said, My role PM didn't mention the 1 action limit, so I won't rule Elenion being Sophie out based on those early comments either.

For the last two cycles, Elenion has taken part in the discussion, but apart from his vote on Orlok based on the kill on Walin, he hasn't really been providing many unique insights, so most of his contributions there seem to be fairly NAI. He seemed to act a bit too defensively when he was being voted on C2. In particular the comment in which he basically accused half the living, active players without much to back it up (right then) of being Sophie felt a bit off to me.

This means that I'm still unsure about Elenion. If I'd had time to do this this morning I probably would have left my vote on Drought, but right now I'm less certain. If drought was Sophie I would have expected some more effort to have been put into his defense. I guess I can see Sophie busing a new convert if Drought wasn't that active though.

@Droughtbringer, If you have time, I really would like to see that analysis you talked about.

[Elenion]

43 minutes ago, randuir said:

For the last two cycles, Elenion has taken part in the discussion, but apart from his vote on Orlok based on the kill on Walin, he hasn't really been providing many unique insights, so most of his contributions there seem to be fairly NAI. He seemed to act a bit too defensively when he was being voted on C2. In particular the comment in which he basically accused half the living, active players without much to back it up (right then) of being Sophie felt a bit off to me.

In my defense, I snuck that post in with my laptop in physics class when I needed to be taking notes on that lecture so I didn't have time to be anything but blunt. I also only accused two players primarily, but I listed my two backup theories that although I was not actively suspicious of I could see as Sophie. Maybe I wasn't clear: I suspected one of Orlok or Bort as an opportunistic Sophie, but if they both turned out village I named who I would look at next.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

So we have less than seven hours left in the day, and Droughtbringer hasn't been online for ten hours. The chances of him being a convert are low, as he was one of the players potentially protected from conversion, and he is fairly inactive in a game that started with a contribution crusade lynch. The longer I think about it, the more I believe that a Sophie who knew they were going to be inactive would have converted on cycle 1. I'm not going to change my vote at this time, but I do hope that we can do more this cycle than wait around for rollover.

[Elenion]

20 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

So we have less than seven hours left in the day, and Droughtbringer hasn't been online for ten hours. The chances of him being a convert are low, as he was one of the players potentially protected from conversion, and he is fairly inactive in a game that started with a contribution crusade lynch. The longer I think about it, the more I believe that a Sophie who knew they were going to be inactive would have converted on cycle 1. I'm not going to change my vote at this time, but I do hope that we can do more this cycle than wait around for rollover.

I'm not sure if Drought knew he would be going inactive. Last cycle he promised an analysis post that never arrived, and I don't think he would have promised it had he known he wouldn't be able to deliver. More likely he's caught up in something that came out of the blue.

[Orlok Tsubodai]

5 hours ago, Elenion said:

I'm not sure if Drought knew he would be going inactive. Last cycle he promised an analysis post that never arrived, and I don't think he would have promised it had he known he wouldn't be able to deliver. More likely he's caught up in something that came out of the blue.

Elenion. The Drought lynch has been going for longer than the 16 hours he’s been away, and it feels really quite off that he wouldn’t intervene at all as either Sophie or a convert. Your reasoning for keeping it on Drought feels strange to me, and as such I’ll tie this between Drought and yourself, both to see what happens from here, and because I wouldn’t mind you being lynched.

[A Joe in the Bush]

10 minutes. Everyone please place any last minute votes or actions now.

[DeTess]

@Eternum, could you reasonably have been active around turnover C1?

@Crimsn-Wolf, I asked you this back in C2, and I don't think you've answered it yet: Why did you decide to place your vote on Bort. You claimed you where going with the flow, but the flow had just drastically changed just before you voted.

 

As for the current vote, after Orlok's attempt to switcht he lynch away from Drought, I actually really want to know Drought's alignment. If he's village, Orlok is almost certainly village as well, as I can't see why an elim would try to sway away a lynch on someone they know is village. However, I can also see why people'd prefer not to waste a lynch on someone they think is innocent. I'm not going to move my vote, but I won't be accusing anyone who does of high treason.

Edited April 19, 2018 by randuir

[Elenion]

1 minute ago, randuir said:

As for the current vote, after Orlok's attempt to switcht he lynch away from Drought, I actually really want to know Drought's alignment. If he's village, Orlok is almost certainly village as well, as I can't see why an elim would try to sway away a lynch on someone they know is village. However, I can also see why people'd prefer not to waste a lynch ons omeone they think is innocent. I'm not going to move my vote, but I won't be accusing anyone who does of high treason.

If I'm lynched, my projections show LyLo next cycle, so only move on Drought if you're sure he's elim. If he's lynched, we'll see his alignment very soon.

[Eternum]

Not really, @randuir. It was/is early morning, and monday is a very busy day for me.

I won't be moving my vote either.

Edited April 19, 2018 by Eternum
I no english gud

[A Joe in the Bush]

Turn 4: [ERROR_ARENA_TRASHED (0x7)]

Kai watched as McAffe and TK421 killed each other. It was very sad. Good thing TK421 was evil.
(I’ll rewrite this in the morning, probably.)

---

Elenion was a !Bot!
Orlok was a Machineborn!

Vote tally:
Orlok(1): Eternum
Elenion(2): Bard, Orlok
Crimsn(1): Devotary
Droughttttt(1): Randuir
Eternum(1): Elandera
Elandera(1): Crimsn

The Turn will end in

Player List:

1. DroughtBringer (Player List)
2. Eternum (x/0)
3. Devotary (Player4.exe)
4. Randuir (Cane)
5. Young Bard (Halting Algorithm)
6. Elandera (Rayda)
7. CrimsnWolf (O7npC)

Edited April 20, 2018 by A Joe in the Bush

[DeTess]

2 minutes ago, Eternum said:

Not really, @randuir. It was/is early morning for me, and monday is a very busy day for me.

I won't be moving my vote either.

Alright. I'd expect Sophie!Eternum to have posted C1, unless he only came online just before roll-over.

Edited April 19, 2018 by randuir