Anniversary Game 4/Anonymous Game 1: A Fresh Start

[Fuchsia Ostrich]

@Ivory Dragonfly I know the feeling. My first game I was super active, although instead of picking up good reads I kept attracting bad gut reads. It seems like every game I've played since then I've been busier and therefore less active. Though the way you use some of that terminology makes me wonder if you're not actually a more experienced player bluffing.

Looking at the reads on me, there's a lot of neutral reads. While that isn't bad, it isn't really good either. I'd like to get some analysis in to up those reads on me, but in less than 10 minutes I need to leave for work.

I think the Lightweavers are out to counter a Skybreaker on the field. It could be an elim Skybreaker for false-claiming and scanning, or the Skybreaker could be the usual village scanner but one who is meant to be countered by the village itself, like Toucan proposed.

I have a good gut read on Vulture, bad on Scorp but that might be because I don't like his playstyle, and neutral slightly negative on Croc. I don't like how Croc blames pressure to vote, because an elim could use that as an easy cover for putting a vote on a bandwagon on a villager.

[Amethyst Scorpion]

@Amber Vulture, after that post, I feel much more confident leaving my vote on you. The way you presented it and the way you said you were a villager was...heavy-handed, and sounds like someone trying to make a case for something they know isn’t true. 

[Sage Kangaroo]

I'm gonna be kind of quiet for the next few days, guys.  I'm going to be away.  >>

Super disappointed, hopefully when I get back I'll be able to redouble my activity.  But knowing how life is, I'll probably just return to my regular activity levels.

[Mint Heron]

Azure Mouse's activity has been consistently low, which is consistent with his claims of being busy IRL. On Day Two, he said he had a village read on Elyle (Swan) and Squawk (Flamingo), both of which we know now are correct. After the Elyle lynch, he said that there had to be "something sus" with the bandwagon. The way it's said seems like an attempt to manipulate, but a later post discussing the lynch made me feel that he was thinking critically about it. Then, during Day Three, he says that he would "go with a vote on Tuatara over Flamingo, and a vote on Flamingo over Vulture", which isn't quite consistent with his trust of Squawk. The rest of the post is suspiciously noncommital. Then he puts a vote on Jai (Beagle), for something that he supposedly said he saw the reasoning of after Jai explained the reason of the swing away from Flamingo. On Day Four, he started posting his suspicions, which (supposedly) heralds the start of his increased activity. He gives out a chart of reads, which is often repeated, but there seem to be very few changes from chart to chart, which makes Mouse look far more active than he actually is. Another weird thing is that around Night Six, Mouse was familiar enough with the concept of PM safety to clarify something I said, despite being unfamiliar enough with it Day One to ask what it was. Somehow, even though Jai gave the wrong explanation of why one should follow PM safety, Mouse was able to give the right one six Days later. I know that this is very small, but it's possible that Mouse learned this from a Sympathiser teammate. On top of that, he has a village read on me, which frankly is a little suspicious since I don't feel that I've done anything really worth a village read this game. That, combined with some of Mouse's other discrepancies, is enough for a vote. Mouse.

 

[Ivory Dragonfly]

I agree with Heron’s suspicions of Mouse. I was thinking similarly, but you put it into words much better than I did when I tried to explain it last cycle. That said, I still feel Elim about Vulture and would like a response before I change my vote, since I’ve been doing a lot of that recently.

Crap, just realized I’ll have to be in school for the last 12 hours of lynch discussion, meaning I won’t get to use my vote on whichever person seems more likely to be lynched (between Culture and Mouse) by the end of the cycle. Drat it all. Guess I’ll have to try to guess which one in the morning, and hope the village consolidates in that direction. 

I’ll share that Flamingo expressed suspicions of Ostrich, Axolotl, Vulture, and Toucan in our PM. Not much, just a little insight as to his thought processes. And also a bit of a tribute to a fallen comrade in the Beagle Trust Group. Though some of those comrades might be Elims, I’ll at least salute the village ones as they die.

Everyone in the village needs to post at least a vote and a brief analysis of said vote. We cannot hand this lynch to the Elims. (How many times have I said that? 5? 6? 500?) 

I’ll have at least one more post pre-rollover. Please discuss tonight so we have more to go on tomorrow.

Edit: Typo on Vulture, but it’s a beautiful typo, so I’ll leave it as is.

Edited February 2, 2018 by Ivory Dragonfly

[Pearl Chameleon]

So I'm super tired and very much not going to put in a lot of time into SE today. But let's see where we are.

We haven't lynched a single elim yet, which is making me hesitate in trusting my reads. It's also making me paranoid of players who I've been reading as village. But we have to press forward regardless so I'm going to ignore that doubt. I don't think Scorpion's an elim, and I have a slight village read on Vulture. I'll stick to my D5 arguments for lynching Toucan. Heron's arguments against Mouse are interesting, and I wouldn't be opposed to Mouse getting lynched based off of them. That being said, I probably won't be able to get on again before turnover.

I hate to be the person who doesn't say much but still tags people for activity but... I don't hate it enough not to do it. @Azure Mouse @Emerald Falcon @Magenta Albatross @Quartz Zebra @Sapphire Elephant @Violet Axolotl

[Mint Heron]

4 hours ago, Ivory Dragonfly said:

Oh yeah, and looking at the D3 lynch- eleven currently alive people voted on that lynch. Eleven. Even assuming ten villagers, at least one Elim found it necessary to vote in that lynch. And do you really want me to believe that all four people still alive who didn’t vote in that lynch are all Elims? The Elims had an interest in that lynch, enough to make several of them vote. Probably to preserve a teammate, as I can’t see them being too concerned about 1 Willshaper or a regular villager. (Flamingo was immune to scans). So, being the only person left alive from that lynch, I suspect you. Sorry, but I’ll have to put my vote back on you, Amber Vulture. 

The reasoning in there kept bothering me, so I laid it out in the standard form for arguments:

Eleven currently living players had a vote on at the end of D3.
The vote tally at the end of D3, before vote manipulation, was this: [Added by me for context]

Quote

Vulture(2): Penguin, Albatross
Beagle(5): Heron, Weasel, Mouse, Gorilla, Tuatara
Tuatara(7): Dragonfly, Beagle, Vulture, Scorpion, Elephant, Toucan, Flamingo
Flamingo(4): Gecko, Kangaroo, Zebra, Crocodile

It is unlikely that the entire Sympathiser team consists of the four currently living players who did not vote for the lynch.
At least one Sympathiser must have voted in the lynch.
Vulture voted in the lynch.
If the Sympathisers were concerned or interested by the lynch, several of them would vote. [How do we know they had a specific interest in this lynch?]
If the Sympathisers knew the roles of those up for the lynch, they would not be concerned enough to make a specific attempt to lynch those players.
If a teammate was up for the lynch, the Sympathisers would have voted against it. [To make this premise apply to the conclusion, we need a premise that says that a teammate was up for the lynch. We don't know if that is true.]
All of the other potential lynchees were villagers.
Vulture is still alive.

---

∴ Vulture is a Sympathiser.

This argument hinges around the idea that the Sympathisers must have manipulated the lynch to save a teammate, but we cannot assume that happened. The Sympathisers might have manipulated the lynch to save a teammate. They also might not have manipulated the lynch to save a teammate. It is possible for all of the premises to be true without making the conclusion true, so the argument is invalid. It's possible that Vulture is a Sympathiser, but this argument is a terrible reason to lynch him.

[Azure Mouse]

Sigh… Et Tu, Kas?  

There's a good reason for the things you're suspicious of, @Mint Heron.

I hadn’t suddenly learned actually what PM safety is, when I summarized what you were saying. That was me, a Disciple of Kas, being no longer able to withhold myself from destroying ignorance, and breaking character because of it. The initial question about PM safety was meant to provide an opportunity for those recurring players who didn't care too much about hiding their experience to explain it for the benefit for everyone else, particularly if we did have new players. Turns out we did, and we still had people pretty late in the game still not understanding the issue with PM safety. The initial responses displeased me, but by then I had a character I was playing, and it wouldn't make sense for them to correct people after asking the question. And I really didn't want to break character - it's been nice to not have to worry about people's expectations based on my previous games.

But that's the reason for the response about PM safety, and also my town read on Heron. I'd like to think I know them well enough to know if they're village, though I guess I've not seen them play an evil character. But they've been saying things I've had in my head, and that's really hard to give an eliminator read on.

[Sapphire Elephant]

OK - so I might as well just give up my attempts at a comprehensive reread. I have too many responsibilities to really focus on it. The failures of my earlier attempts should teach me well enough.

But that shouldn't keep me from participating in the thread in other ways. I have managed to do a quick overview of Vulture, and I'm not seeing them as evil. The overall tone of their posts is helpful (I know, a good Eliminator can fake that sort of thing), but they do look like they are actually trying to solve the game. And I can't detect any sort of extra information - the sort an Eliminator team would have. So I'm convinced Vulture is a villager. And so I'm going to argue strongly against a lynch on those grounds.

@Mint Heron - Love the philosophy!Heron. And I think that the reasoning given for the vote on Vulture just doesn't stand up.

I've also done some more in-depth reads (limited by where I was when I realized that if I waited until I was finished reading and analyzing this, the day would be long over before I participated). So I have some questions that might bear looking into.

@Ivory Dragonfly - In my perusal of the thread, I noticed something that jogged my memory. You expressed suspicion on Ostrich - rather strong suspicion, actually - a while back. That hasn't been followed up on for a while. Is there anything Ostrich has said or done that has ameliorated that suspicion? (Also known as - have I missed anything in the thread that explains why you haven't pushed further there?)

@Sunburst Toucan - You were pushing very hard for Albatross earlier in the game. Was that a suspicion of convenience that you've dropped once you no longer needed it?

Frankly, I'm having worries about Toucan, but Scorpion is also reading Elim to me too. A vote trying to convince people that you aren't an Eliminator at this late stage of the game sounds more like a flimsy justification for an Elim trying to get a last, needed lynch before suspicion coalesces around them.

One of my suspicions is voting on another of them. I don't like that situation, because it makes it harder to tell which way to break. At the moment, I'm leaning Scorpion, because the reasoning on that Vulture vote is just awful. If Scorpion is Elim, then Toucan is likely not. I'm going to go over Toucan later - maybe tomorrow, and see what I can see.

 

Vote Count:

Vulture: (2)Scorpion, Ivory

Scorpion: (4) Mouse, Toucan, Vulture, Elephant

Mouse: (1) Heron

Toucan: (1) Pearl Chameleon

 

 

[Mint Heron]

18 minutes ago, Azure Mouse said:

Sigh… Et Tu, Kas?  

There's a good reason for the things you're suspicious of, @Mint Heron.

I hadn’t suddenly learned actually what PM safety is, when I summarized what you were saying. That was me, a Disciple of Kas, being no longer able to withhold myself from destroying ignorance, and breaking character because of it. The initial question about PM safety was meant to provide an opportunity for those recurring players who didn't care too much about hiding their experience to explain it for the benefit for everyone else, particularly if we did have new players. Turns out we did, and we still had people pretty late in the game still not understanding the issue with PM safety. The initial responses displeased me, but by then I had a character I was playing, and it wouldn't make sense for them to correct people after asking the question. And I really didn't want to break character - it's been nice to not have to worry about people's expectations based on my previous games.

But that's the reason for the response about PM safety, and also my town read on Heron. I'd like to think I know them well enough to know if they're village, though I guess I've not seen them play an evil character. But they've been saying things I've had in my head, and that's really hard to give an eliminator read on.

*Kashero. What's the point of Disciples if they won't even spell my name correctly?

You addressed the PM safety and village read points, but you haven't explained the inconsistencies in your reasoning based on the Day Two Elyle (Swan) lynch. Why were your vote preferences Tuatara, Flamingo, and Vulture from most to least suspicious, when you previously claimed to have a village read on Squawk (Flamingo)?

[Fuchsia Ostrich]

I'm sticking by my good gut read on Vulture. Their posts do seem very thought out, but they haven't aroused any suspicion at all from me because they're backed by sound logic.

I'm going to put my vote on Mouse. While Vulture appears to be on the up and up, Mouse has been deceptive about, at minimum, their experience level. While I'm packing a good gut read on Vulture, Mouse's posts have already set off my gut alarm once--although admittedly I couldn't definitively nail down the cause. Also, even though lying can be used by the village, it's more commonly an elim tactic. The only players that I could picture lying while village are the more chaotic ones, a small chunk of the player base.

Up until this point I haven't brought up Scorpion, so to avoid being accused of the black/white fallacy I'll bring them up next. I read Scorpiom as a villager who's more than slightly put out. You'd think an elim would be hiding in the shadows, not accusing the more trusted players. This is a reversal on my part from when I voted on him, motivated by Scorpion sticking to their guns with the paranoia of the trusted. Had they attempted to back off when things turned ugly I would have smelled blood, but they stood their ground. While I'm far from completely trusting Scorpion, and they're my second lynch choice right now, I'd trust them more than Mouse.

[Azure Mouse]

27 minutes ago, Mint Heron said:

*Kashero. What's the point of Disciples if they won't even spell my name correctly?

You addressed the PM safety and village read points, but you haven't explained the inconsistencies in your reasoning based on the Day Two Elyle (Swan) lynch. Why were your vote preferences Tuatara, Flamingo, and Vulture from most to least suspicious, when you previously claimed to have a village read on Squawk (Flamingo)?

Eh, I always preferred Wyrmimir - seems more divine. Or at least Norse.

I thought I'd said when I gave my town read that I was pretty unsure about them. I was going back and forth on them, but as of that first read, I'd decided what made me uneasy of them could be attributed to a villager. Then there was the swan lynch and reflecting on their involvement on that, it revived that unease, making me lean more Elim on them at the Tuatara lynch. 

27 minutes ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said:

I'm going to put my vote on Mouse. While Vulture appears to be on the up and up, Mouse has been deceptive about, at minimum, their experience level. 

I don't think it's inherently suspicious for a recurring player to want to hide their identity in an anonymous game. Afterall the whole point of this class of game is avoid or at least minimize the ability to use the meta or players existing understanding of how other players do things. I've tried to be as useful as I can, but uni has made it hard to be as active as I'd like. 

Edited February 2, 2018 by Azure Mouse

[Mint Heron]

38 minutes ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said:

I'm sticking by my good gut read on Vulture. Their posts do seem very thought out, but they haven't aroused any suspicion at all from me because they're backed by sound logic.

I'm going to put my vote on Mouse. While Vulture appears to be on the up and up, Mouse has been deceptive about, at minimum, their experience level. While I'm packing a good gut read on Vulture, Mouse's posts have already set off my gut alarm once--although admittedly I couldn't definitively nail down the cause. Also, even though lying can be used by the village, it's more commonly an elim tactic. The only players that I could picture lying while village are the more chaotic ones, a small chunk of the player base.

Up until this point I haven't brought up Scorpion, so to avoid being accused of the black/white fallacy I'll bring them up next. I read Scorpiom as a villager who's more than slightly put out. You'd think an elim would be hiding in the shadows, not accusing the more trusted players. This is a reversal on my part from when I voted on him, motivated by Scorpion sticking to their guns with the paranoia of the trusted. Had they attempted to back off when things turned ugly I would have smelled blood, but they stood their ground. While I'm far from completely trusting Scorpion, and they're my second lynch choice right now, I'd trust them more than Mouse.

Could you point out which posts sent off your gut alarm? The timing of this vote seems suspiciously bandwagon-like, and backed by bad reasoning. Both villagers and evil players could have good reasons to hide their experience levels, and while I'm not sure how the metagame is now with reputations, I know Wilson was very put off by how players responded to her rep when I was last here. 

12 minutes ago, Azure Mouse said:

Eh, I always preferred Wyrmimir - seems more divine. Or at least Norse.

That's what I go by on Mondays and Wednesdays  But we had to split up the names somehow, and I lost the bet >>

[Azure Mouse]

32 minutes ago, Mint Heron said:

That's what I go by on Mondays and Wednesdays  But we had to split up the names somehow, and I lost the bet >>

I'm aware. And so I went with just Kas

---

Edit: I will be getting to Toucan and Albatross in around 4 or 5 hours - in classes till then.

Edited February 2, 2018 by Azure Mouse

[Ivory Dragonfly]

Alright, this Scorpion lynch is bothering me. But I’ll get to that later in this post. 

Elephant, I’ve mostly dropped suspicions of Ostrich because he’s started to contribute. My distrust was based on his inactivity, and his lack of saying anything significant. Now that Ostrich 1.0 has been replaced with the pinch hitter, their activity has gone up further.

So yeah, Scorpion lynch and why people are voting:

4 hours ago, Sapphire Elephant said:

OK - so I might as well just give up my attempts at a comprehensive reread. I have too many responsibilities to really focus on it. The failures of my earlier attempts should teach me well enough.

But that shouldn't keep me from participating in the thread in other ways. I have managed to do a quick overview of Vulture, and I'm not seeing them as evil. The overall tone of their posts is helpful (I know, a good Eliminator can fake that sort of thing), but they do look like they are actually trying to solve the game. And I can't detect any sort of extra information - the sort an Eliminator team would have. So I'm convinced Vulture is a villager. And so I'm going to argue strongly against a lynch on those grounds.

@Mint Heron - Love the philosophy!Heron. And I think that the reasoning given for the vote on Vulture just doesn't stand up.

I've also done some more in-depth reads (limited by where I was when I realized that if I waited until I was finished reading and analyzing this, the day would be long over before I participated). So I have some questions that might bear looking into.

@Ivory Dragonfly - In my perusal of the thread, I noticed something that jogged my memory. You expressed suspicion on Ostrich - rather strong suspicion, actually - a while back. That hasn't been followed up on for a while. Is there anything Ostrich has said or done that has ameliorated that suspicion? (Also known as - have I missed anything in the thread that explains why you haven't pushed further there?)

@Sunburst Toucan - You were pushing very hard for Albatross earlier in the game. Was that a suspicion of convenience that you've dropped once you no longer needed it?

Frankly, I'm having worries about Toucan, but Scorpion is also reading Elim to me too. A vote trying to convince people that you aren't an Eliminator at this late stage of the game sounds more like a flimsy justification for an Elim trying to get a last, needed lynch before suspicion coalesces around them.

One of my suspicions is voting on another of them. I don't like that situation, because it makes it harder to tell which way to break. At the moment, I'm leaning Scorpion, because the reasoning on that Vulture vote is just awful. If Scorpion is Elim, then Toucan is likely not. I'm going to go over Toucan later - maybe tomorrow, and see what I can see.

 

Vote Count:

Vulture: (2)Scorpion, Ivory

Scorpion: (4) Mouse, Toucan, Vulture, Elephant

Mouse: (1) Heron

Toucan: (1) Pearl Chameleon

 

 

Based on one vote of Scorpion’s that he reads as suspicious. Not a terrible read of the vote, but it’s fairly flimsy grounds for a lynch. Scorpion, as I said earlier, feels like a desperate villager trying to save himself. Going after a trusted player like me would be a poor way to stay hidden and unlynched.

11 hours ago, Amber Vulture said:

I look forward to the analysis. I think I’ve been pretty clearly village throughout the game, so I hope that you looking into my post history will help convince you. I’m not sure what exactly you want to hear from me. While I’m not sure about your statement regarding D3, I’ll take it as true, since you have no real incentive to lie about it. I can’t really add anything to that statement except give my heartfelt assurances that I’m not an Elim. One thing I would say is that just because I was the only candidate with a vote who hasn’t yet died does not indicate that I was the only suspect who hasn’t. I’ve forgotten much of D3, unfortunately, but I’d hazard a guess that others were suspected, too, even if votes weren’t placed on them. I’m not quite that unique. Also, I’d mention that it’s unlikely the eliminators would have ganged up on Flamingo, especially when every target for that day’s lynch was a villager, so if you’re looking for them among the bandwagoners, what you find will likely be NAI at best. Finally, I appreciate that you’ve taken the time to look back at votes in previous cycles. I’ll try to do the same tonight or tomorrow and post the relevant analysis

Amethyst Scorpion. We’re in the end-game, and if we lynch me this turn and you the next, we’re screwed if we’re both village. It looks like we’re the primary targets, though, and I know I’m village, though, so I’m willing to vote on you now and hope  

You’ve given me a good gut read, which is why I’m voting on Scorpion instead of you, but considering the way the eliminators have very consistently slipped under the radar this game I’m not willing to trust gut reads. I’ll do what I can to look into your post history, although there’s no way I’ll manage it tonight.

As for hearing from me, if you could elaborate more on what specifically you want to know, I’d be happy to share. Just saying you’d like to hear from me doesn’t really give me much to work with, though

Yeah, no real reason given, not even nebulous “suspicions.” Other than being the other target of the lynch. This is a bandwagon/self-preservation vote.

 

23 hours ago, Sunburst Toucan said:

 

"Scorpion, you don't sound too convinced of Amber's guilt. I assume you realize that Flamingo's reasoning also works in reverse? If Amber proves innocent, that would put even more suspicion on you, so if the only reason to vote Amber is for you to clear yourself, and you don't actually suspect her, you might want to rethink that plan. Unless, of course, you aren't particularly worried about what might happen tomorrow. Maybe because you've got a large group of friends that'll protect you if a couple more people are 'dealt with'." Vanna knew she was being too aggressive, but the entire situation had worn her nerves and patience down. She'd spent quite a bit of time looking into the people the murderers had killed, and she'd thought she'd found a pattern. And the murderers had casually broken it this night.

Vanna thought she'd heard someone mention Crocodile while she made her suspicion of Scorpion known. A quick look around revealed that that was Nolan. She didn't really remember crocodile, but it might be worth looking into, if only to check whether Nolan was being sincere in hiss suspicion.

 

 

You are not a Mayor. Anyone who accuses you of being one should look up the actual definition of a mayor, and you're very much not it.

I wouldn't be so certain of that. If the GM's where making a particularly trollish division, they could give the village both a lot of lightweavers and a skybreaker, just to make the skybreaker's job more difficult.

Hard to really phrase due to argument initially being in RP, but essentially “your vote reason is flimsy, looks like you’re not worried because you might be an Elim with teammates to back you up,” which itself feels like flimsy reasoning to me, and based on assumptions.

Mouse: Puts it on him with a neutral read on Scorpion and says he will likely move it later. Never does. 

So this lynch has even less proof behind it than my Vulture lynch. Also, I’m sensing an effort to save Vulture, which could come from villagers but is probably Elims trying to save their teammate. I’d point out that Vulture is not confirmed Elim, obviously, but based on the evidence I have, my vote will stay on Vulture.

Going to school and will be back post-rollover. At the very least, don’t lynch Scorpion. He’s a terrible candidate with the evidence we have so far. Try Mouse or Vulture. Either could be Elims. 

[Sunburst Toucan]

6 hours ago, Sapphire Elephant said:

 

@Sunburst Toucan - You were pushing very hard for Albatross earlier in the game. Was that a suspicion of convenience that you've dropped once you no longer needed it?

"I am still suspicious of Albatross, but Nolan did make a good point about me focusing on him to the exclusion of everyone else." That had been a bit of a wake-up call for Vanna. She'd tried to give everyone an objective examination, but it seemed she hadn't been nearly as objective with Albatross as she should have been. "There was one thing stood out in his most recent accusation of me that makes me less suspicious of Albatross, and that is that it seemed to have been conceived from the conviction that Albatross was innocent. I don't think a murderer is capable of coming up with the theory that I was part of a multi-turn conspiracy to accuse and lynch him, as that requires you to constantly be reasoning from the point of innocence. Maybe Albatross is a murderer who is really good in immersing himself in the persona of an innocent villager, but I'm not sure."

 

Edit:

1 hour ago, Ivory Dragonfly said:

Hard to really phrase due to argument initially being in RP, but essentially “your vote reason is flimsy, looks like you’re not worried because you might be an Elim with teammates to back you up,” which itself feels like flimsy reasoning to me, and based on assumptions.

"Maybe I didn't explain well enough, but what I thought was odd was that his one stated reason for voting on Vulture was that Onyx thought they couldn't both be murderers, and that he hoped voting on Vulture would clear him. However, Onyx never said they couldn't both be innocent, and by Scorpion's own reasoning an innocent vulture would incriminate Scorpion. So it seemed odd to me that he was willing to gamble on that if had no other reasons to suspect Vulture, unless he didn't expect to suffer from any fallout brought on by vulture flipping village."

Edited February 2, 2018 by Sunburst Toucan

[Sage Kangaroo]

Just had a quick second to read over today, and I think that neither of these lynches have anything behind them.

But Vulture's looks like it's got more behind it, so I'll side with Dragonfly here.  

Probably won't post during the night cycle, or for most of the next day cycle.  Sorry.

[Sunburst Toucan]

Vanna had gotten her notes out again after answering the questions. She felt reasonably certain about her accusation of Scorpion, but there was no reason not to look over Mouse and Vulture.

Vulture

Spoiler

Nolan mentioned D3 and the votes there as a major argument against Amber, so let'stake a look at that. Jai (beagle) Nolan (dragonfly) and Vulture had all voted on Tuatara before Vulture had gotten more than one vote, so any attempt to rescue Amber if she's a murderer probably wouldn't have begun until she'd gotten more than one vote.

Onyx then added a second vote onto flamingo, with Scorpion coming in shortly after that to add another vote onto Tuatara. Notable, Scorpion cited agreement with some of the arguments and a village read on beagle as his reasons for voting on Tuatara. He didn't explain which of those arguments he agreed with though. Elephant also added a vote onto Tuatara before Albatross added a third vote onto Vulture.

At that point, there where 5 votes on Tuatara, and 3 on vulture. No more votes against Vulture would follow, and attention swung towards Flamingo as an alternative lynch-candidate.

In conclusion, if an attempt to save Vulture was made, Scorpion and Elephant would be the most likely suspects. However, Amber was never actually in the lead with votes, being always at least one vote behind the on with the most votes. I therefore don't think it is too likely that the elims would have felt the need to stage a rescue there.

Now, regarding other things Amber has said and done. I mentioned before that the comment she made after Swan's lynch stood out to me (read back on those notes for the full explanation), and her assertion of being innocent today feels a bit odd as well. A bit too much 'I'm really innocent, you guys!' in the first sentences, but she does back it up with some basic arguments. 

With the exception of these comments, however, Amber hasn't given me any other reasons to suspect her. Several of her posts and actions seem village to me, such as sticking with beagle when it would have been all to easy to turn on him and get him lynched if she was one of the murderers.

I do acknowledge Kharsis' point about her not contributing as much as her post-count would seem to suggest, but Amber isn't unique in that regard.

All in all I don't think Vulture is guilty. I might be wrong, but right now I've got no intention of voting against her.

Hermux Tantamoq (Mouse)

Spoiler

The first thing that stood out to me is that his vote on beagle seemed to come  a bit out of nowhere. He'd expressed understanding earlier for Beagle and company trying to save Flamingo, so I don't see how the fact that a group PM was involved changed too much if he thought it was a reasonable thing to do before. His statement about continually being unsure about beagle also isn't backed up by anything he said before, though it isn't refuted by anything he said either.

Then, there is the apparent attempt to appear to be a newer village than he actually is. I mentioned before that that was something I used to suspect Nolan of (Jai proving innocent has put that suspicion to rest), and as with him, I think it's somewhats suspicious behavior.

Lastly, there's this comment, which he made after Jai (beagle) Had died:

Quote

That was not a good round for us... And sorry Beagle for not trusting you...

The 'us' just stands out to me, and the apology to Beagle seems odd as well. I don't remember him apologizing to any of his other suspicions after they proved to be innocent.

So, overall, I am actually somewhat suspicious of mouse as well. Scorpion is at the moment more suspicious to me, as several of his actions seem to be counter-productive and his 'see if I care'attitude to accusations is very unhelpful and un-village like in my opinion.

[Azure Mouse]

3 hours ago, Ivory Dragonfly said:

Mouse: Puts it on him with a neutral read on Scorpion and says he will likely move it later. Never does. 

Hasn't yet. It was pending me looking at Toucan and Albatross, and seeing if anything came up during the cycle. And I've not gotten to them yet because of sleep, and because of a long day at uni. But I'll try to now.

1 hour ago, Sunburst Toucan said:

The 'us' just stands out to me, and the apology to Beagle seems odd as well. I don't remember him apologizing to any of his other suspicions after they proved to be innocent.

Hmm... Beagle was the first player I committed to putting a vote on, that was part of it. I think the other suspicions I've had of people who've died were Weasel and Flamingo. And because I've been going back and forth on Flamingo (although looking back on my posts, I didn't vocalize that at all like I thought I had, so well spotted Heron, and I guess all I can say is that is what I was doing at the time, but I guess all you have is my word on that...), I never went after Flamingo to feel the need to apologize. And then Beagle versus Weasel, well, Beagle I thought was actually ultimately making useful contributions to the discussion, which we now obviously know were from a village perspective. So losing Beagle was quite unfortunate. Other than the village being down another player, I don't feel like we lost as much from Weasel dying.

---

Sigh... RPing everything is admirable, but it's a massive pain to read and extract a players game relevant discussion from... I'm not sad that the forum moved away from that as a general rule... But I guess lets look at Toucan.

So, lots of summaries of reads. And actually decent ones, rather than the miserable attempts I've managed to put together. There's some nice thoughts there. Not necessarily many votes. I didn't keep track of their reads enough to see if they ever updated their reads later, which would possibly be worthwhile if they didn't, given the length of time of which said reads were done. Anyway, looking through their posts, I like their reads. Much better than mine. I feel like I remember people trying to either link Albatross and Toucan or saying they couldn't be on the same team, plus my read on Albatross somewhat depended on Albatross. Well, I'm getting a village read on Toucan, and I think their vote on Scorpion makes sense. So then of my original list, I think I am going to leave my vote on Scorpion. Because I think Vulture and Toucan are much more villagery. Though I think Toucan would be my true village read, and only slight on vulture.

Edit: Anyway, I have to sleep now. I normally wake up around the time of rollover, but I'll try and get up a bit early in case anyone wants me to respond to something.

Edited February 2, 2018 by Azure Mouse

[Emerald Falcon]

Vote Count:

Vulture: (4) Scorpion, Ivory, Kangaroo, Falcon

Scorpion: (4) Mouse, Toucan, Vulture, Elephant

Mouse: (2) Heron, Ostritch

Toucan: (1) Pearl Chameleon
 

Vulture. Let the Gods of Luck and Chance decide.  

[Azure Mouse]

Just now, Emerald Falcon said:

Vote Count:

Vulture: (4) Scorpion, Ivory, Kangaroo, Falcon

Scorpion: (4) Mouse, Toucan, Vulture, Elephant

Mouse: (2) Heron, Ostritch

Toucan: (1) Pearl Chameleon
 

Vulture. Let the Gods of Luck and Chance decide.  

Figured I'd wait around to see if there were any immediate responses to my post. That's an incredibly worrying reason to vote at this stage unless you think both are evil. The only reason I won't immediately switch my vote is that I don't think an eliminator would do that. It seems too obviously an elim view...

But then, I'm sure everyone would agree that the elims haven't necessarily played how we'd expect them to. 6 lynches in, with some vig kills for added measure and we're yet to take one out... Eh. Scorpion Falcon. That's more suspicious to me than most anything Scorpion has done...

[Emerald Falcon]

52 minutes ago, Azure Mouse said:

Figured I'd wait around to see if there were any immediate responses to my post. That's an incredibly worrying reason to vote at this stage unless you think both are evil. The only reason I won't immediately switch my vote is that I don't think an eliminator would do that. It seems too obviously an elim view...

But then, I'm sure everyone would agree that the elims haven't necessarily played how we'd expect them to. 6 lynches in, with some vig kills for added measure and we're yet to take one out... Eh. Scorpion Falcon. That's more suspicious to me than most anything Scorpion has done...

Vulture. 

There are reasons. Suspect me if you will. Our lynches have achieved nothing thus far. Clearly a change in strategy is required.

[Sunburst Toucan]

1 hour ago, Emerald Falcon said:

There are reasons. Suspect me if you will. Our lynches have achieved nothing thus far. Clearly a change in strategy is required.

"And this new strategy would be to turn of our minds and just follow your lead?" Vanna manged to keep her voice down, but only just. "I'm sorry, but if you had a strategy that relied on us being willing to gamble on trusting you, you should have tried it a couple of days ago."

Edited February 2, 2018 by Sunburst Toucan

[Magenta Albatross]

I can only phone post but I'll see what I can do.

 

Quote

Onyx Flamingo:

She did wonder, though, would anyone mourn her death, since the town wouldn’t know who she was?

Of course. I'm glad we played together and you were an important part, regardless of identity, of this village of ours.

 

Village:

Ivory - as before

Heron - recent posts give me a very villagery vibe. The post style and analysis seem 'figuring out' rather than 'framing for lynch' which makes me think villager. Also the RP when they became heron 2.0, the carefreeness, and now getting into 'solving the game' mode affirms my read for me. Overall, a villagery progression to where they are now, game-state-wise.

Elephant - as before. 

Kangaroo - as before

 

Slight village/wouldn't lynch today:

Zebra - I've moved zebra down here due to not hearing much from them recently but I still feel they're a villager.

Crocodile - as before.

Mouse - Contrary to what heron outlined, I thought the readslist from mouse felt villagery. Maybe because I like to do the same thing sometimes. But I like that they gave a wider overview of players rather than focusing or tunnelling on one or two players (which is okay just within a cycle or two) and gives us access to some of their thought process which allows the players to read them better. Slight village for now.

Pearl Chameleon - I would like to look at Chameleon in more detail later but atm, unless they're attempting to distance, my elim lean on Toucan is making me trust Chameleon slight more than before. 

 

Don't feel too strongly about:

Falcon - been inactive (like me) to get too much of a read on them. I don't know what to make of their recent vote/unvote on Vulture, though. Could be a villager just trying to jump on a vulture bandwagon or an elim trying to push vulture bandwagon or an elim-teamate of vulture trying a distancing attempt play. If Vulture is elim, I would look here again.

Vulture - I had an elim lean on them and voted the before. I felt slightly better about them the next cycle and their posts had an air of non- chalance. They are the surviving wagon from when we had the most villagers vote. The posts today doesn't really help me get a stronger village read on them so I will leave them here.

 

Elim leans:

I still feel there's at least one elim in @Amethyst Scorpionscorpion and @Sunburst Toucan if not both elims but even I doubt it's elim/elim pair. (Refer back to my reads from the previous cycles) I'm less suspicious of Scorpion in comparison to Toucan. However, recent posts of Toucan and their analysis makes me waver somewhat but we're at a stage where we have to vote carefully. If Toucan doesn't take off then I'm willing to vote scorpion.

 

[Emerald Falcon]

42 minutes ago, Sunburst Toucan said:

"And this new strategy would be to turn off our minds and just follow your lead?" Vanna manged to keep her voice down, but only just. "I'm sorry, but if you had a strategy that relied on us being willing to gamble on trusting you, you should have tried it a couple of days ago."

No gamble involved.  Where possible I simply plan to keep the lynch tied. If you disagree, feel free to change things. If you are really that confused by what I'm doing, you probably haven't been paying attention. Success or failure, I'll explain tomorrow. 

Speaking of:

Vote Count:

Vulture: (3) Scorpion, Ivory, Kangaroo, 

Scorpion: (3) Toucan, Vulture, Elephant

Mouse: (3) Heron, Ostrich, Falcon

Toucan: (2) Chameleon, Albatross

Falcon: (1) Mouse

Anyone want to throw another vote on Toucan?  

Edited February 2, 2018 by Emerald Falcon